I’m sure some of us will be making substantial profit on our holdings of MVIS stock in the year 2010.
I hope you are aware of Long Term Capital Gains Tax going up from 15% in 2010 to 20% in 2011.
Today is the last day to purchase Microvision stock so that when you sell some on the last trading day of 2010… you will still qualify for the 15% rate.
This is from Wikipedia…
“In the United States, individuals and corporations pay income tax on the net total of all their capital gains just as they do on other sorts of income, but the tax rate for individuals is lower on "long-term capital gains," which are gains on assets that had been held for over one year before being sold. The tax rate on long-term gains was reduced in 2003 to 15%, or to 5% for individuals in the lowest two income tax brackets (See progressive tax). Short-term capital gains are taxed at a higher rate: the ordinary income tax rate. The reduced 15% tax rate on eligible dividends and capital gains, previously scheduled to expire in 2008, has been extended through 2010 as a result of the Tax Increase Prevention and Reconciliation Act signed into law by President Bush on May 17, 2006 (P.L. 109-222). In 2011 these reduced tax rates will "sunset," or revert to the rates in effect before 2003, which were generally 20%. President Obama's budget, announced on February 25, 2009, calls for the Capital Gains Tax to be reverted to the 20% rate before the Sunset date of 2011.”
Its not a bad idea to buy today and sell on the last day of 2010 and pay only 15% Long Term Capital Gains Tax.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Microvision: Osram Shipping Green Lasers? (Updated)
It seems pretty quite just before the CES 2010. And that could lull us into believing another missed schedule somewhere along the line.
However, that is not the case. Looks like there is a storm brewing in the background?
There is a lot of activity going-on at Microvision. Some of it is related to preparation for CES… but there is lot more activity in preparation for the release of SHOWwx into the US market.
That obviously raises the question of green lasers. If I were to summarize every thing that I have learned by kicking tires, I would say…
“There is confluence of comments made by various individuals in and around the Microvision supply chain that indicates improving yields at Osram.”
Is Osram Shipping Green Lasers to Microvision?
The answer to that question is obviously YES.
However, when it comes to improving yields for green lasers from Osram... you have to first re-set your perspective before looking at the answer.
If you are an optimist, you look at the answer as “glass half full”.
If you are a pessimist, you look at the answer as “glass half empty”.
The third category would be cautiously optimist, and as such you would look at the answer as “glass slowly filling”
As I have stated before, I’m a die hard optimist. However, I continue to be cautious. So the answer is…
“Yields at Osram are improving and there are reasons to believe that we have some good news coming up on the horizon.”
Hopefully, we will hear about it soon. And that surely will calm the retail investor nerves. Currently, the MVIS stock price reflects the most pessimistic view of green laser shipments from Microvision supply chain partners. Having said that, here’s the scoop on green laser shipments from Osram...
“Osram is shipping green lasers to Microvision and ramping-up the numbers with improving yields”
Q: When did the shipments start?
A: Don’t know for sure... could be as early as mid October.
Q: What are the shipment quantities?
A: Don’t know for sure, but the initial numbers were good enough for institutional investors to come to the table and put-up over $30 million dollars in secondary equity financing over the Thanksgiving week last month.
Q: What are the ramp-up production rates?
A: That’s perhaps the most well kept secret of them all when it comes to Microvision. However, the overall quantities are improving and good enough to get past the institutional investor due diligence process. In my book, what’s good for institutional money is good enough for me.
Q: Would there be an official Microvision announcement?
A: Yes, I’m counting on that in the next few weeks or less. It may not be what the pessimists want to hear... but it certainly would please the cautiously optimists.
The diode green laser work is moving along well and we are looking at 9 to 12 months more before acceptable power levels of 60mw to 100mw become a reality beyond the labs.
Disclaimer:
"My validation is the confluence of comments made by various individuals in and around the Microvision supply chain. Please do your own due diligence, just like I have, before making any investment decisions."
When I was a child, my grandmother always used to say...
"Son, never look at the gift horse in the mouth… take it with a smile for whatever it is worth".
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
However, that is not the case. Looks like there is a storm brewing in the background?
There is a lot of activity going-on at Microvision. Some of it is related to preparation for CES… but there is lot more activity in preparation for the release of SHOWwx into the US market.
That obviously raises the question of green lasers. If I were to summarize every thing that I have learned by kicking tires, I would say…
“There is confluence of comments made by various individuals in and around the Microvision supply chain that indicates improving yields at Osram.”
Is Osram Shipping Green Lasers to Microvision?
The answer to that question is obviously YES.
However, when it comes to improving yields for green lasers from Osram... you have to first re-set your perspective before looking at the answer.
If you are an optimist, you look at the answer as “glass half full”.
If you are a pessimist, you look at the answer as “glass half empty”.
The third category would be cautiously optimist, and as such you would look at the answer as “glass slowly filling”
As I have stated before, I’m a die hard optimist. However, I continue to be cautious. So the answer is…
“Yields at Osram are improving and there are reasons to believe that we have some good news coming up on the horizon.”
Hopefully, we will hear about it soon. And that surely will calm the retail investor nerves. Currently, the MVIS stock price reflects the most pessimistic view of green laser shipments from Microvision supply chain partners. Having said that, here’s the scoop on green laser shipments from Osram...
“Osram is shipping green lasers to Microvision and ramping-up the numbers with improving yields”
Q: When did the shipments start?
A: Don’t know for sure... could be as early as mid October.
Q: What are the shipment quantities?
A: Don’t know for sure, but the initial numbers were good enough for institutional investors to come to the table and put-up over $30 million dollars in secondary equity financing over the Thanksgiving week last month.
Q: What are the ramp-up production rates?
A: That’s perhaps the most well kept secret of them all when it comes to Microvision. However, the overall quantities are improving and good enough to get past the institutional investor due diligence process. In my book, what’s good for institutional money is good enough for me.
Q: Would there be an official Microvision announcement?
A: Yes, I’m counting on that in the next few weeks or less. It may not be what the pessimists want to hear... but it certainly would please the cautiously optimists.
The diode green laser work is moving along well and we are looking at 9 to 12 months more before acceptable power levels of 60mw to 100mw become a reality beyond the labs.
Disclaimer:
"My validation is the confluence of comments made by various individuals in and around the Microvision supply chain. Please do your own due diligence, just like I have, before making any investment decisions."
When I was a child, my grandmother always used to say...
"Son, never look at the gift horse in the mouth… take it with a smile for whatever it is worth".
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Wealth: Creation and Preservation
There are many proven ways to create wealth in our global economy. And I mean the legit ways of creating wealth… and not by the unscrupulous ways of “Madoff” of this world.
“Long term wealth is created by high rates of consistent returns accumulated over a period of time─ with prudent use of leverage, and allowing time for the compounding of gains to do their magic in creating wealth of legacy proportions.”
So, what differentiates one type of investment from the other?
Well if you are diversifying, and I strongly recommend that you do, then what matters is the allocation of investment funds across the various asset classes… like real estate, bonds, stocks, and a family business that gets passed from one generation to the next. Since each asset class has its own rate of investment returns, therefore time horizon for growth to create wealth will vary from few years to several decades.
I know what you’re thinking!
You want to be wealthy early in your lifetime to be able to enjoy the fruits of your labor and your good fortune. That makes sense. I mean, what good a billion dollars would do you at age 90?
So, what it boils down to is the speed of wealth creation so that we can enjoy the fruits of our lifetime of labor… during our lifetime. And that’s where the “high monthly rate of return” comes into play…
“Wealth creation of legacy proportions is the miracle of high monthly rate of return, compounding and leverage.”
It is, therefore, understandable why our strategy focus is on exceptional long term growth and earning monthly income while we wait for long term growth to unfold …
“We invest in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift with lasting and exceptional long term growth. We hold our core position, unless the fundamentals change, and ignore the short term gyrations. During volatile periods, we limit the down side by buying or selling options and do not trade for the sake of few pennies earned from scalping the market. However, from time to time, we may buy calls or sell put premium to leverage core holdings... or to utilize the available portfolio margin to earn risk free income by selling OTM puts/calls... with probability skewed in our favor at 80:20.
High monthly returns are possible due to our ability to control risk and avoid getting trapped in positions that run counter to long term macro-economic or current business trends.”
Having stated our wealth creation [investment] strategy, now we go looking for companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift. In the past, we have had the good fortune of finding a few diamonds in the rough and made some exceptional rate of return with companies like Intel, Microsoft, Dell Computers, Cisco, Qualcomm, Google and Apple.
The high-growth train of the 1980s and 1990s has already left the station, and some of us were left behind, muttering obscenities to ourselves on the platform. We have two choices facing us today in 2010. One option is to mourn our bad fortune, admit that high-growth stocks demand too much hard work and more than a bit of luck, and then resign ourselves to index funds, hoping to eke out 7% per year over the next 20 years. The other option demands boldness and vision. It asks you to forget the past and plan for the future by joining in the search for the great companies of the next 20 years.
Technology, for one example, is rapidly evolving and from time to time the opportunity of a life time stares you in the face, only if you have your ears to the metal and have an open mind.
After trading over a billion dollars in stocks and options over a 27 year period, I have discovered one technology company that is on its way to bring about a paradigm shift in the way we entertain; communicate; collaborate; and network with friends, families and business associates. And yes, while we wait for our investment in this hyper growth company to unfold, we are also generating over 10% income per month [on the risk capital] on a consistent basis... with risk controlled investment strategies that leverage portfolio margins.
Search for Hyper Growth:
Searching for hype growth companies is an on-going process and currently I see another paradigm shift taking place in the technology arena… the prime mover of business and life style changes in our lifetime. Besides technology, the other prime movers of business [and life style] changes would be the “peak oil”, “permanent demand destruction”, and “carbon footprint”. There is “nano technology”, but that is obviously covered under technology.
For now we will focus on technology and discuss the others at another place and time.
Stay tuned for Part 2... it will be here beore you know it.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
“Long term wealth is created by high rates of consistent returns accumulated over a period of time─ with prudent use of leverage, and allowing time for the compounding of gains to do their magic in creating wealth of legacy proportions.”
So, what differentiates one type of investment from the other?
Well if you are diversifying, and I strongly recommend that you do, then what matters is the allocation of investment funds across the various asset classes… like real estate, bonds, stocks, and a family business that gets passed from one generation to the next. Since each asset class has its own rate of investment returns, therefore time horizon for growth to create wealth will vary from few years to several decades.
I know what you’re thinking!
You want to be wealthy early in your lifetime to be able to enjoy the fruits of your labor and your good fortune. That makes sense. I mean, what good a billion dollars would do you at age 90?
So, what it boils down to is the speed of wealth creation so that we can enjoy the fruits of our lifetime of labor… during our lifetime. And that’s where the “high monthly rate of return” comes into play…
“Wealth creation of legacy proportions is the miracle of high monthly rate of return, compounding and leverage.”
It is, therefore, understandable why our strategy focus is on exceptional long term growth and earning monthly income while we wait for long term growth to unfold …
“We invest in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift with lasting and exceptional long term growth. We hold our core position, unless the fundamentals change, and ignore the short term gyrations. During volatile periods, we limit the down side by buying or selling options and do not trade for the sake of few pennies earned from scalping the market. However, from time to time, we may buy calls or sell put premium to leverage core holdings... or to utilize the available portfolio margin to earn risk free income by selling OTM puts/calls... with probability skewed in our favor at 80:20.
High monthly returns are possible due to our ability to control risk and avoid getting trapped in positions that run counter to long term macro-economic or current business trends.”
Having stated our wealth creation [investment] strategy, now we go looking for companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift. In the past, we have had the good fortune of finding a few diamonds in the rough and made some exceptional rate of return with companies like Intel, Microsoft, Dell Computers, Cisco, Qualcomm, Google and Apple.
The high-growth train of the 1980s and 1990s has already left the station, and some of us were left behind, muttering obscenities to ourselves on the platform. We have two choices facing us today in 2010. One option is to mourn our bad fortune, admit that high-growth stocks demand too much hard work and more than a bit of luck, and then resign ourselves to index funds, hoping to eke out 7% per year over the next 20 years. The other option demands boldness and vision. It asks you to forget the past and plan for the future by joining in the search for the great companies of the next 20 years.
Technology, for one example, is rapidly evolving and from time to time the opportunity of a life time stares you in the face, only if you have your ears to the metal and have an open mind.
After trading over a billion dollars in stocks and options over a 27 year period, I have discovered one technology company that is on its way to bring about a paradigm shift in the way we entertain; communicate; collaborate; and network with friends, families and business associates. And yes, while we wait for our investment in this hyper growth company to unfold, we are also generating over 10% income per month [on the risk capital] on a consistent basis... with risk controlled investment strategies that leverage portfolio margins.
Search for Hyper Growth:
Searching for hype growth companies is an on-going process and currently I see another paradigm shift taking place in the technology arena… the prime mover of business and life style changes in our lifetime. Besides technology, the other prime movers of business [and life style] changes would be the “peak oil”, “permanent demand destruction”, and “carbon footprint”. There is “nano technology”, but that is obviously covered under technology.
For now we will focus on technology and discuss the others at another place and time.
Stay tuned for Part 2... it will be here beore you know it.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Microvision: Personal Mobile TV/Projectors
It is my belief that in the coming short years all sorts of video devices and services will dominate our communications, collaboration, networking, entertainment and learning world… and smartphones, mobile TVs and pico projectors will play a major role.
Mobile TVs for business or personal entertainment are no more a vision of the future… but indeed the reality of the future that is already here.
This is what ABIresearch has to say...
“The mobile TV market is a dynamically evolving convergence of the media, mobile communications, and consumer electronics industries. It consists of a global ecosystem of content providers, service providers and retailers, network operators, and network and device equipment vendors. The mobile TV ecosystem collectively provides an end-to-end, information and entertainment (“infotainment”) service over wireless networks to end-users in mobile environments. The mobile TV market has tremendous long-term promise as a next-generation infotainment experience. It will emerge over the next few years to grow to a value of more than $50 billion by 2013.”
Here’s the link to a reasearch report by ABIresearch...
http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1000842-Mobile+Broadcast+Video+Services
Free mobile TV [on a cell phone] is very popular in many countries in the Asia/Pacific region, specifically Japan and South Korea. However, despite the large number of viewers, these advertiser-supported offerings have problems generating sufficient revenues… but that is not going to change the eventual adoption of mobile TV by the millions.
Currently, mobile TV in the US is not as poplar as it is Asia/Pacific region. Any new effort to promote Mobile TV is likely to run into skepticism, in view of the adoption rate for subscription mobile TV so far and competition. MobiTV Inc., a company based in Emeryville, Calif., has been offering a service that uses conventional cellphones.
MobiTV has around 8 million mobile users. Flo TV, a new startup by Qualcomm, has not disclosed the number of mobile users. MobiTV uses a carrier's data network; Flo TV, a television spectrum and is considered as the desirable technology.
Mobile TV Has Bright Future
As it is with any new technology or service, the product must first find the need and then fulfill it in the most compelling and cost effective way. Here are four very powerful consumers need that, when marketed strategically, can change the mobile TV adoption here in the US and globally…
1. Demand for Mobile TV:
Every survey of mobile TV viewers that I’ve seen lists sports as one of the most popular categories. There are a huge number of sports fans around the world, obviously, and most — if not all — prefer to watch events live.
It’s a major reason why some people subscribe to mobile TV.
ESPN has become a mobile information powerhouse, including transmitting some 63 million mobile alerts every month and receiving more than nine million unique viewers on its mobile Web site, whose traffic is increasing 78 percent annually, according to FierceMobileContent.com
Here’s the link…
http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/story/espn-opens-its-mobile-playbook/2009-08-31?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal
Smartphones are responsible for 70 percent of the mobile Web traffic, with BlackBerrys at the top of the list, the article says. But the Apple iPhone also represents a major opportunity. To this, now you can add the Qualcomm’s FLO TV available today [November 13th] at Amazon, Best Buy, Radio Shack and other select retailers. Just in case you missed the recent buzz about Qualcomm’s FLO TV, it is a pocket-sized personal mobile TV that is strictly for watching TV on the go.
FLO TV Personal Television, as the product is called, is expected to be offered by retailers this holiday season at a suggested price of $250. Qualcomm also will offer its own programming service, with packages expected to cost $5 to $15 a month.
This is what CES 2010 write-up says about Qualcomm's FLO TV...
"Qualcomm’s FLO handheld television offers users instant access to live and time-shifted content, including CBS Mobile, CNBC, Comedy Central, Fox News, MSNBC, MTV, NBC 2Go and Nickelodeon. The $250 device weighs just over five ounces and features a 3.5-inch QVGA touch-screen display."
"Pro: FLO TV renders high-quality video without streaming, buffering, or downloading by tapping into an advanced national mobile television network. The FLO also features a long-life battery that provides over five hours of viewing time and approximately 300 hours on standby."
"Con: The FLO will most likely appeal only to television addicts. In addition, the handheld TV is competing against cheaper portable DVD players and netbooks capable of streaming Hulu and other digital content."
"Recommendation: Flo is the perfect choice for individuals who prefer to watch high-quality videos and live television shows without buffering delays."
Mobile TV is Huge Opportunity… but there are challenges:
2. Free Mobile TV:
Free mobile TV that is financially supported by advertising may help with the adoption rates. However, there is a strong case in favor of “pay for content” mobile TV…
John Zehr, ESPN’s digital media senior vice president of product and product development, views cellular “as a major growth area for us, and importantly, people seem more likely to pay for content on mobile than they are for the PC, so that opens up additional opportunities.”
John Fletcher, an analyst at the market-research firm SNL Kagan, estimates MobiTV subscribers will reach seven million this year, or about 2% of all U.S. cellphone users. He estimates FLO will have about 350,000 users, or a fraction of a percent.
Mr. Fletcher notes that Americans have tended to shy away from buying conventional portable TVs, which have the advantage of free content over FLO's paid offering.
But Bill Stone, FLO TV's president, says it offers an array of content that is available on cable TV but not over-the-air broadcasts. A bigger hurdle, he argues, is that people simply aren't aware of its offerings. By going direct to the consumer, FLO TV has "a lot more control over our destiny and our messaging," Mr. Stone said.
3. Dedicated Mobile TV:
One advantage for a dedicated device is that TVs tend to be a shared resource where cellphones are seen as personal, Mr. Stone added. Parents and kids, might hand a TV back and forth as different kinds of shows air, he said.
Qualcomm, though now known for chips, has had forays in hardware before. The San Diego-based company offered its own cellphones early in its history. Last November, Qualcomm announced that it had developed a design for a home computing device that uses its cellphone chips rather than PC components.
Now consider this…
A personal TV with 3.5 inch diagonal screen is great for personal viewing on the go and its dedicated feature also allows it to be shared between parents and kids, for example. However, the creator at Qualcomm may not realize the bigger picture impact of this dedicted Peronal TV on the traditional TVs in a household… if and when a laser pico projector is embedded for large screen HD viewing.
Can you imagine the impact of this tiny dedicated Personal TV/Projector that can offer all the functionality of a traditional large screen TV plus gives you mobility, transferability, private and public viewing option and at lower cost of overall ownership… that is cheaper to own and cheaper to operate.
Companies that manufacture large screen LCD and Plasma TVs should not only be concerned but really worry about their future. I don’t think these TV and glass plate manufacturers realize the future impact on their business model from faster adoption rates of dedicated mobile TVs that have embedded HD laser pico projectors.
4. Low Energy Cost of Operating Mobile TV:
Another aspect of dedicated Personal TV/Projector is the low power requirement of less than 5watts. PicoP display engine embedded in all things digital and built into Personal TVs and projectors may just extend our resources [financial and natural] and save the planet Earth from slow death. For example, the biggest energy guzzlers on this planet are big screen TVs.
News from October, 2009 says it all…
California appears poised to be first to ban power-guzzling big-screen TVs
The LosAngeles Times
By Marc Lifsher
October 14, 2009
“Reporting from Sacramento - The influential lobby group Consumer Electronics Assn. is fighting what appears to be a losing battle to dissuade California regulators from passing the nation's first ban on energy-hungry big-screen televisions.”
Here’s the link to the news…
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bigtvs14-2009oct14,0,4908205.story
The energy problem is not just in California… it’s a world-wide problem that needs addressing now before the planet destroys itself with too much “carbon footprint” or due to lack of “energy” to fuel and feed the world’s 6 billion population. Energy conservation, in a big way, is coming soon to every single US state… and it’s just the matter of time. Electric brown-outs and rationing is in our near future... that is if we, as a nation, do not make an aggressive and collective effort to conserve.
Talking about conservation...
The use of PicoP display engines in dedicated Personal TVs and projectors that give us high definition; large screen; always in focus display at a fraction of power [less than 5watts] may just be the answer to our worldwide energy problem… where a billion or so TVs suck the energy out of planet in exchange for a few hours of wide screen HD entertainment.
I’m sure you will agree that Microvision’s PicoP display technology is disruptive [of a mega proportion] and of a nature that could cause dramatic shift in “technology paradigm” and the “social paradigm” around the world.
Specifically, for the third world countries, for example, the technology paradigm shift would be…
“20inch energy guzzling TVs replaced with a Personal TV/Projector with external speakers, at HD resolution image projection of up to 80 inches on any surface…always in focus…at miniscule power usage of less than 5watts… and at about $599 US dollars.”
The Personal TV/Projector market in the developing countries is over 1 billion worldwide with an adoption rate ten times bigger than you can hope for the embedded Mobile phone market. Consider this…
• Total population of India and China is over 2.8 billion and growing. Considering an average household size of 5 [for India] and 4 [for China] you have about 650 million households. Ironically, the current Mobile phone market in India and China is also about 700 million. Assuming that the middle-class [only] can afford a Mobile phone then there are 700 million households that fall in the middle class category in India and China.
• Assuming that a household that can afford a mobile phone can certainly afford [and own] a Television. Therefore, in India and China there are at least 700 million TVs. The middle class in India and China is growing at a 10% rate per year. To this growth, you add the rest of the third world and Eastern European countries [for 300 million TVs] and you have potentially 1 billion TVs market world-wide that is looking for low power consuming, high resolution and large screen experience of a Personal TV/Projector.
If Microvision [and an OEM partner like Qualcomm] can mass produce a Personal TV/Projector with external speakers, at up to 80inch projection at HD resolution and consume no more than 5watts of power… you have a billion households worldwide as your potential customers… with an adoption rate of ten times higher than that of PicoP embedded Mobile phone. This is a huge market with tremendous financial rewards for the slow and steady hand that can deliver on the promise of Personal TV/Projector to the energy starved world of ours.
Not only that, the low power requirement of the Personal TV/Projector may just extend our resources [financial and natural] and save the planet earth from slow death.
Unlike the US and other western countries, electric power in highly populated countries like India, China, Eastern Europe and other third world countries is in extreme short supply. Not everyone has electricity and those that do have… face constant brown-outs and rationing. With the world energy supply dwindling, and costs rising dramatically, the electricity is a precious commodity.
Here’s a wish list Personal TV/Projector based on Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine…
Personal Mobile TV/Projector Model 60:
FEATURES:
• Low power requirement… less than 5watts for Personal TV/Projector
• DVD quality display larger than on a 60″ widescreen TV
• Easy setup — just plug, load and play
• No focus adjustment required
• Built-in handle and carrying case included
The ultimate Personal TV/Projector that delivers all the big-screen drama, sound and excitement you desire — just plug, load and play.
It works with any blank wall or screen and projects DVD movies larger than on a 60-inch widescreen TV.
Model 60 sets up easily— all you need is an electrical outlet. There are no additional cables or equipment to hook up. It features a convenient strap and soft, cushioned carrying case so you can take the show on the road. And, it delivers natural colors and bright, vibrant images with 1-chip, MEMS Laser technology.
It displays a 60-inch, widescreen image from just 5 feet away, or a 100-inch image from just 8 feet away.
SELLING FEATURES: Low power, high definition, always –in-focus, rich colors, short throw ratio, fast refresh, and wide screen multi-media experience.
The worldwide market for such a low power consuming laser based Personal Mobile TV/Projector is huge.
Microvision and Qualcomm have the technology and supply chain partners up and down the line. All they need is the vision and resolve to aggressively work together to pursue this market themselves or do it in collaboration with their global distribution and OEM partners.
While you are thinking about it...
Please go and vote your 25 votes, as many times as you like, for Microvision’s SHOWwx at the CES 2010 contest.
Here’s the link...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1297#comments
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Mobile TVs for business or personal entertainment are no more a vision of the future… but indeed the reality of the future that is already here.
This is what ABIresearch has to say...
“The mobile TV market is a dynamically evolving convergence of the media, mobile communications, and consumer electronics industries. It consists of a global ecosystem of content providers, service providers and retailers, network operators, and network and device equipment vendors. The mobile TV ecosystem collectively provides an end-to-end, information and entertainment (“infotainment”) service over wireless networks to end-users in mobile environments. The mobile TV market has tremendous long-term promise as a next-generation infotainment experience. It will emerge over the next few years to grow to a value of more than $50 billion by 2013.”
Here’s the link to a reasearch report by ABIresearch...
http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1000842-Mobile+Broadcast+Video+Services
Free mobile TV [on a cell phone] is very popular in many countries in the Asia/Pacific region, specifically Japan and South Korea. However, despite the large number of viewers, these advertiser-supported offerings have problems generating sufficient revenues… but that is not going to change the eventual adoption of mobile TV by the millions.
Currently, mobile TV in the US is not as poplar as it is Asia/Pacific region. Any new effort to promote Mobile TV is likely to run into skepticism, in view of the adoption rate for subscription mobile TV so far and competition. MobiTV Inc., a company based in Emeryville, Calif., has been offering a service that uses conventional cellphones.
MobiTV has around 8 million mobile users. Flo TV, a new startup by Qualcomm, has not disclosed the number of mobile users. MobiTV uses a carrier's data network; Flo TV, a television spectrum and is considered as the desirable technology.
Mobile TV Has Bright Future
As it is with any new technology or service, the product must first find the need and then fulfill it in the most compelling and cost effective way. Here are four very powerful consumers need that, when marketed strategically, can change the mobile TV adoption here in the US and globally…
1. Demand for Mobile TV:
Every survey of mobile TV viewers that I’ve seen lists sports as one of the most popular categories. There are a huge number of sports fans around the world, obviously, and most — if not all — prefer to watch events live.
It’s a major reason why some people subscribe to mobile TV.
ESPN has become a mobile information powerhouse, including transmitting some 63 million mobile alerts every month and receiving more than nine million unique viewers on its mobile Web site, whose traffic is increasing 78 percent annually, according to FierceMobileContent.com
Here’s the link…
http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/story/espn-opens-its-mobile-playbook/2009-08-31?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal
Smartphones are responsible for 70 percent of the mobile Web traffic, with BlackBerrys at the top of the list, the article says. But the Apple iPhone also represents a major opportunity. To this, now you can add the Qualcomm’s FLO TV available today [November 13th] at Amazon, Best Buy, Radio Shack and other select retailers. Just in case you missed the recent buzz about Qualcomm’s FLO TV, it is a pocket-sized personal mobile TV that is strictly for watching TV on the go.
FLO TV Personal Television, as the product is called, is expected to be offered by retailers this holiday season at a suggested price of $250. Qualcomm also will offer its own programming service, with packages expected to cost $5 to $15 a month.
This is what CES 2010 write-up says about Qualcomm's FLO TV...
"Qualcomm’s FLO handheld television offers users instant access to live and time-shifted content, including CBS Mobile, CNBC, Comedy Central, Fox News, MSNBC, MTV, NBC 2Go and Nickelodeon. The $250 device weighs just over five ounces and features a 3.5-inch QVGA touch-screen display."
"Pro: FLO TV renders high-quality video without streaming, buffering, or downloading by tapping into an advanced national mobile television network. The FLO also features a long-life battery that provides over five hours of viewing time and approximately 300 hours on standby."
"Con: The FLO will most likely appeal only to television addicts. In addition, the handheld TV is competing against cheaper portable DVD players and netbooks capable of streaming Hulu and other digital content."
"Recommendation: Flo is the perfect choice for individuals who prefer to watch high-quality videos and live television shows without buffering delays."
Mobile TV is Huge Opportunity… but there are challenges:
2. Free Mobile TV:
Free mobile TV that is financially supported by advertising may help with the adoption rates. However, there is a strong case in favor of “pay for content” mobile TV…
John Zehr, ESPN’s digital media senior vice president of product and product development, views cellular “as a major growth area for us, and importantly, people seem more likely to pay for content on mobile than they are for the PC, so that opens up additional opportunities.”
John Fletcher, an analyst at the market-research firm SNL Kagan, estimates MobiTV subscribers will reach seven million this year, or about 2% of all U.S. cellphone users. He estimates FLO will have about 350,000 users, or a fraction of a percent.
Mr. Fletcher notes that Americans have tended to shy away from buying conventional portable TVs, which have the advantage of free content over FLO's paid offering.
But Bill Stone, FLO TV's president, says it offers an array of content that is available on cable TV but not over-the-air broadcasts. A bigger hurdle, he argues, is that people simply aren't aware of its offerings. By going direct to the consumer, FLO TV has "a lot more control over our destiny and our messaging," Mr. Stone said.
3. Dedicated Mobile TV:
One advantage for a dedicated device is that TVs tend to be a shared resource where cellphones are seen as personal, Mr. Stone added. Parents and kids, might hand a TV back and forth as different kinds of shows air, he said.
Qualcomm, though now known for chips, has had forays in hardware before. The San Diego-based company offered its own cellphones early in its history. Last November, Qualcomm announced that it had developed a design for a home computing device that uses its cellphone chips rather than PC components.
Now consider this…
A personal TV with 3.5 inch diagonal screen is great for personal viewing on the go and its dedicated feature also allows it to be shared between parents and kids, for example. However, the creator at Qualcomm may not realize the bigger picture impact of this dedicted Peronal TV on the traditional TVs in a household… if and when a laser pico projector is embedded for large screen HD viewing.
Can you imagine the impact of this tiny dedicated Personal TV/Projector that can offer all the functionality of a traditional large screen TV plus gives you mobility, transferability, private and public viewing option and at lower cost of overall ownership… that is cheaper to own and cheaper to operate.
Companies that manufacture large screen LCD and Plasma TVs should not only be concerned but really worry about their future. I don’t think these TV and glass plate manufacturers realize the future impact on their business model from faster adoption rates of dedicated mobile TVs that have embedded HD laser pico projectors.
4. Low Energy Cost of Operating Mobile TV:
Another aspect of dedicated Personal TV/Projector is the low power requirement of less than 5watts. PicoP display engine embedded in all things digital and built into Personal TVs and projectors may just extend our resources [financial and natural] and save the planet Earth from slow death. For example, the biggest energy guzzlers on this planet are big screen TVs.
News from October, 2009 says it all…
California appears poised to be first to ban power-guzzling big-screen TVs
The LosAngeles Times
By Marc Lifsher
October 14, 2009
“Reporting from Sacramento - The influential lobby group Consumer Electronics Assn. is fighting what appears to be a losing battle to dissuade California regulators from passing the nation's first ban on energy-hungry big-screen televisions.”
Here’s the link to the news…
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bigtvs14-2009oct14,0,4908205.story
The energy problem is not just in California… it’s a world-wide problem that needs addressing now before the planet destroys itself with too much “carbon footprint” or due to lack of “energy” to fuel and feed the world’s 6 billion population. Energy conservation, in a big way, is coming soon to every single US state… and it’s just the matter of time. Electric brown-outs and rationing is in our near future... that is if we, as a nation, do not make an aggressive and collective effort to conserve.
Talking about conservation...
The use of PicoP display engines in dedicated Personal TVs and projectors that give us high definition; large screen; always in focus display at a fraction of power [less than 5watts] may just be the answer to our worldwide energy problem… where a billion or so TVs suck the energy out of planet in exchange for a few hours of wide screen HD entertainment.
I’m sure you will agree that Microvision’s PicoP display technology is disruptive [of a mega proportion] and of a nature that could cause dramatic shift in “technology paradigm” and the “social paradigm” around the world.
Specifically, for the third world countries, for example, the technology paradigm shift would be…
“20inch energy guzzling TVs replaced with a Personal TV/Projector with external speakers, at HD resolution image projection of up to 80 inches on any surface…always in focus…at miniscule power usage of less than 5watts… and at about $599 US dollars.”
The Personal TV/Projector market in the developing countries is over 1 billion worldwide with an adoption rate ten times bigger than you can hope for the embedded Mobile phone market. Consider this…
• Total population of India and China is over 2.8 billion and growing. Considering an average household size of 5 [for India] and 4 [for China] you have about 650 million households. Ironically, the current Mobile phone market in India and China is also about 700 million. Assuming that the middle-class [only] can afford a Mobile phone then there are 700 million households that fall in the middle class category in India and China.
• Assuming that a household that can afford a mobile phone can certainly afford [and own] a Television. Therefore, in India and China there are at least 700 million TVs. The middle class in India and China is growing at a 10% rate per year. To this growth, you add the rest of the third world and Eastern European countries [for 300 million TVs] and you have potentially 1 billion TVs market world-wide that is looking for low power consuming, high resolution and large screen experience of a Personal TV/Projector.
If Microvision [and an OEM partner like Qualcomm] can mass produce a Personal TV/Projector with external speakers, at up to 80inch projection at HD resolution and consume no more than 5watts of power… you have a billion households worldwide as your potential customers… with an adoption rate of ten times higher than that of PicoP embedded Mobile phone. This is a huge market with tremendous financial rewards for the slow and steady hand that can deliver on the promise of Personal TV/Projector to the energy starved world of ours.
Not only that, the low power requirement of the Personal TV/Projector may just extend our resources [financial and natural] and save the planet earth from slow death.
Unlike the US and other western countries, electric power in highly populated countries like India, China, Eastern Europe and other third world countries is in extreme short supply. Not everyone has electricity and those that do have… face constant brown-outs and rationing. With the world energy supply dwindling, and costs rising dramatically, the electricity is a precious commodity.
Here’s a wish list Personal TV/Projector based on Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine…
Personal Mobile TV/Projector Model 60:
FEATURES:
• Low power requirement… less than 5watts for Personal TV/Projector
• DVD quality display larger than on a 60″ widescreen TV
• Easy setup — just plug, load and play
• No focus adjustment required
• Built-in handle and carrying case included
The ultimate Personal TV/Projector that delivers all the big-screen drama, sound and excitement you desire — just plug, load and play.
It works with any blank wall or screen and projects DVD movies larger than on a 60-inch widescreen TV.
Model 60 sets up easily— all you need is an electrical outlet. There are no additional cables or equipment to hook up. It features a convenient strap and soft, cushioned carrying case so you can take the show on the road. And, it delivers natural colors and bright, vibrant images with 1-chip, MEMS Laser technology.
It displays a 60-inch, widescreen image from just 5 feet away, or a 100-inch image from just 8 feet away.
SELLING FEATURES: Low power, high definition, always –in-focus, rich colors, short throw ratio, fast refresh, and wide screen multi-media experience.
The worldwide market for such a low power consuming laser based Personal Mobile TV/Projector is huge.
Microvision and Qualcomm have the technology and supply chain partners up and down the line. All they need is the vision and resolve to aggressively work together to pursue this market themselves or do it in collaboration with their global distribution and OEM partners.
While you are thinking about it...
Please go and vote your 25 votes, as many times as you like, for Microvision’s SHOWwx at the CES 2010 contest.
Here’s the link...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1297#comments
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Microvision: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage with Report (Part 2)
This post is the continuation of Part 1...
Pricing Strategy for PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
I see two huge markets for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx...
• The after market... that consists of over a billion of laptops, smartphones, DMPs and camcorders that already exist worldwide.
• The value add market... that consists of over a billion of low power mobile TV/Projectors for the third world countries, gaming projection devices, information Kiosks, projection billboards, video infomercial boxes, etc.
The After Market:
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx, you need to first consider billions of existing electronic devices that can utilize the added projection functionality for a decent price. SHOWwx is a standalone plug and play accessory that could be sold as such for premium prices in the after market... just like the after market for car accessories. Currently, the after market for pico projector accessory consists of more than 1 billion existing digital devices... over 700 million laptops, over 300 million smartphones, over 300 million DMPs and over 200 million camcorders.
The after market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product like SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. For starters, just think about over a billion laptops and smartphones that are out there... ready and willing. The owners of such laptops and smartphones are mostly professionals and can easily absorb [and justify] the added cost... as price of added projection functionality that improves productivity, communication, collaboration, and infotainment. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, SHOWwx can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit after market at a decent ASP of say $495... And offer 35% commission to its resale channel partners.
The Value Added Market:
In the near future, dedicated Mobile TV/Projectors will make a big splash in the personal and public viewing of media content… both in real time, a well as, for time shifted mode. Accessory pico projector SHOWwx is a natural companion to mobile TV to start with and can also be embedded when the champion OEM like Qualcomm realizes the true potential of a mobile TV/Projector combo. Mobile TV/Projector for the bedroom is a huge captive market of over a billion households around the world.
Over a billion households in energy starved Asian and East European countries are potential customers for low power mobile TV/Projector combo that can be used for personal or public viewing of media content … with the flexibility of connecting the accessory pico projector to other digital devices when a need arises to do so.
As you can see, the value added market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product that includes the projection functionality of SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, the value added product can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit markets at an ASP [to Microvision] of say $195. Since a champion OEM partner is embedding the PicoP display engine into the consumer product, there is no commissions involved.
Pricing Strategy for Embedded PicoP Display Engine:
Now let’s talk about the pricing and marketing strategy for the embedded PicoP display engine for the new consumer product cycle...
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for PicoP display engines, it is a gross mistake to use the pricing model that’s more applicable to “touch screens” for smartphones... like Oppenheimer has done in their Report. Touch screen is not an accessory for the host digital device... it is a component. And as a component it could sit on the shelf for years until an OEM champions the technology and adopts the said component in the future models as an enhancement.
If a component reduces the cost or adds to the value perception of the added functionality... it will be adopted quicker and may even command a decent price such as is the case with touch screens. I’m surprised that it took so long for the touch screens to become common place─ because human prefer video over other means of communication... and touch screens is indeed the [visual and touch] man/machine interface in smartphones.
Let’s first review the current status.
This is what I see…
Currently there is more demand than supply for the laser PicoP projector SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine. At first blush, that is a good enough reason to command a premium price compared to the competition... assuming there was something that the competition had to offer.
However, it is important to investigate why the demand is high. With little digging, and snooping around, you will see that high demand is directly related to the higher standards of SHOWwx: image quality; large size projection; vivid bright colors; always-in-focus on any projected surface; small physical size and longer battery run features. This is the reason number one for commanding premium prices for laser based PicoP display engines and projectors… and that is today, tomorrow and to the day until supply catches-up with demand.
Quality always comes at a cost. You want quality… then you pay for quality. As they say: “you can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.” In a nutshell, quality at premium price mantra applies to PicoP display engine pricing strategy today, tomorrow and every day… as long as the competition has nothing better to offer.
Another way to arrive at product pricing is by placing a dollar value on replacement cost of products eliminated by your product and then add to this the intrinsic value of your product’s other differentiating features.
Here’s an example of pricing strategy for both the SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine…
a. PicoP can replace a lamp based projector for small meetings and presentations… lamp based projector replacement cost $900.
b. PicoP allows impromptu presentations in bright and vivid colors and always stays in focus with 8 font readability in normal light conditions… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
c. PicoP in the bedroom to watch movies, shows and other streaming videos on the ceiling with no concern for projector location, has short throw ratio from bed to ceiling and always stays in focus… replacement cost of TV on the ceiling $ 900 and $500 in install cost.
d. PicoP can project 200” image size under certain lighting conditions like watching movies outdoors while camping, or with friends and neighbors on a dark summer night … feature value $400 as compared to the competition that is if you are willing to accept small size and washed out color projection.
e. PicoP projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
f. PicoP projects higher definition images [848x480]… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
g. PicoP projects always-in-focus images regardless of the distance or movement of the projector… priceless. This feature is the competition killer. Let’s face it, as an example, would you buy a car that needs starting again every time you stopped in traffic or at a red light?
Right, I didn’t think so.
You see, in case of pico projectors from the competition... you need to re-focus the image every time you move or want to change the size of projected image. It’s not quite like re-starting your car engine every time you stop in traffic... but you know what I mean.
h. PicoP projector gives you twice the projection time per battery charge as compared to the competition… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
i. PicoP projector used as a mobile TV [with a set-top box] saves you money on energy usage over its operating life [consuming less than 5 watts per hour] … feature value $1,200 in energy savings over a 10 year period
k. PicoP projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source… priceless or replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
Well, there you have it...
When you add the value of your product’s unique functionality to money savings from product features, plus the value of improved quality of experience, the total value proposition becomes worth lot more than the $15 [in wholesale] that Oppenheimer projects as the ASP for embedded PicoP display engine for 2016.
Oppenheimer analysts estimates for ASP [average sale price] from FY 2010 thru FY 2016 are absurd; considering the fact that pico projection is not only a product [as in stand alone accessory unit] but it will also open-up new applications for the host [ when embedded]; application that never existed before. Pico projectors, as standalone accessory, will drive new sales in the non-existent pico projector market and sell more of the host product [with a service contract] when embedded to offer the added pico projection functionality.
That’s the way most all of us expect the market for pico projection to develop... and not the other way around where the host decides “if and when” to offer embedded pico projectors. Do you really think the pico projection market is going to sit on its ass [et] and wait for the host to get-off its ass [et] to let the market have the opportunity to embrace and experience all that pico projection has to offer.
Almost all mobile phone carriers offer a free phone in exchange for a service contract that legally binds the subscriber for two or three year service. Razor companies like Gillette offer free Razors in the hopes of selling you the blades for the rest of your life. More and more companies are adopting this business model... if and when their product lends itself to a perpetual service contact.
As this business model grows in popularity, innovative financial models will evolve, as these companies will need to make upfront capital investments and recover it from customers over many years. This business model will embrace PicoP projection like glove to hand and could be the game changer for the first adopter. Partnering with Microvision will be more like the partnership of champions... rather than Microvision looking for a strong OEM champion for its technology.
It’s not about technology... it’s about consumer experience and perception of quality and value.
Purchase orders from distributors, OEMs and mobile phone carriers are solid validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s laser PicoP projector.
Multiple features and functionalities of exceptional quality from one tiny PicoP display engine; will command a price that certainly will be lot more that the $15 in 2016.
In closing and at the risk of being redundant, I would repeat what I said before...
“You can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Pricing Strategy for PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
I see two huge markets for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx...
• The after market... that consists of over a billion of laptops, smartphones, DMPs and camcorders that already exist worldwide.
• The value add market... that consists of over a billion of low power mobile TV/Projectors for the third world countries, gaming projection devices, information Kiosks, projection billboards, video infomercial boxes, etc.
The After Market:
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx, you need to first consider billions of existing electronic devices that can utilize the added projection functionality for a decent price. SHOWwx is a standalone plug and play accessory that could be sold as such for premium prices in the after market... just like the after market for car accessories. Currently, the after market for pico projector accessory consists of more than 1 billion existing digital devices... over 700 million laptops, over 300 million smartphones, over 300 million DMPs and over 200 million camcorders.
The after market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product like SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. For starters, just think about over a billion laptops and smartphones that are out there... ready and willing. The owners of such laptops and smartphones are mostly professionals and can easily absorb [and justify] the added cost... as price of added projection functionality that improves productivity, communication, collaboration, and infotainment. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, SHOWwx can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit after market at a decent ASP of say $495... And offer 35% commission to its resale channel partners.
The Value Added Market:
In the near future, dedicated Mobile TV/Projectors will make a big splash in the personal and public viewing of media content… both in real time, a well as, for time shifted mode. Accessory pico projector SHOWwx is a natural companion to mobile TV to start with and can also be embedded when the champion OEM like Qualcomm realizes the true potential of a mobile TV/Projector combo. Mobile TV/Projector for the bedroom is a huge captive market of over a billion households around the world.
Over a billion households in energy starved Asian and East European countries are potential customers for low power mobile TV/Projector combo that can be used for personal or public viewing of media content … with the flexibility of connecting the accessory pico projector to other digital devices when a need arises to do so.
As you can see, the value added market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product that includes the projection functionality of SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, the value added product can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit markets at an ASP [to Microvision] of say $195. Since a champion OEM partner is embedding the PicoP display engine into the consumer product, there is no commissions involved.
Pricing Strategy for Embedded PicoP Display Engine:
Now let’s talk about the pricing and marketing strategy for the embedded PicoP display engine for the new consumer product cycle...
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for PicoP display engines, it is a gross mistake to use the pricing model that’s more applicable to “touch screens” for smartphones... like Oppenheimer has done in their Report. Touch screen is not an accessory for the host digital device... it is a component. And as a component it could sit on the shelf for years until an OEM champions the technology and adopts the said component in the future models as an enhancement.
If a component reduces the cost or adds to the value perception of the added functionality... it will be adopted quicker and may even command a decent price such as is the case with touch screens. I’m surprised that it took so long for the touch screens to become common place─ because human prefer video over other means of communication... and touch screens is indeed the [visual and touch] man/machine interface in smartphones.
Let’s first review the current status.
This is what I see…
Currently there is more demand than supply for the laser PicoP projector SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine. At first blush, that is a good enough reason to command a premium price compared to the competition... assuming there was something that the competition had to offer.
However, it is important to investigate why the demand is high. With little digging, and snooping around, you will see that high demand is directly related to the higher standards of SHOWwx: image quality; large size projection; vivid bright colors; always-in-focus on any projected surface; small physical size and longer battery run features. This is the reason number one for commanding premium prices for laser based PicoP display engines and projectors… and that is today, tomorrow and to the day until supply catches-up with demand.
Quality always comes at a cost. You want quality… then you pay for quality. As they say: “you can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.” In a nutshell, quality at premium price mantra applies to PicoP display engine pricing strategy today, tomorrow and every day… as long as the competition has nothing better to offer.
Another way to arrive at product pricing is by placing a dollar value on replacement cost of products eliminated by your product and then add to this the intrinsic value of your product’s other differentiating features.
Here’s an example of pricing strategy for both the SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine…
a. PicoP can replace a lamp based projector for small meetings and presentations… lamp based projector replacement cost $900.
b. PicoP allows impromptu presentations in bright and vivid colors and always stays in focus with 8 font readability in normal light conditions… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
c. PicoP in the bedroom to watch movies, shows and other streaming videos on the ceiling with no concern for projector location, has short throw ratio from bed to ceiling and always stays in focus… replacement cost of TV on the ceiling $ 900 and $500 in install cost.
d. PicoP can project 200” image size under certain lighting conditions like watching movies outdoors while camping, or with friends and neighbors on a dark summer night … feature value $400 as compared to the competition that is if you are willing to accept small size and washed out color projection.
e. PicoP projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
f. PicoP projects higher definition images [848x480]… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
g. PicoP projects always-in-focus images regardless of the distance or movement of the projector… priceless. This feature is the competition killer. Let’s face it, as an example, would you buy a car that needs starting again every time you stopped in traffic or at a red light?
Right, I didn’t think so.
You see, in case of pico projectors from the competition... you need to re-focus the image every time you move or want to change the size of projected image. It’s not quite like re-starting your car engine every time you stop in traffic... but you know what I mean.
h. PicoP projector gives you twice the projection time per battery charge as compared to the competition… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
i. PicoP projector used as a mobile TV [with a set-top box] saves you money on energy usage over its operating life [consuming less than 5 watts per hour] … feature value $1,200 in energy savings over a 10 year period
k. PicoP projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source… priceless or replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
Well, there you have it...
When you add the value of your product’s unique functionality to money savings from product features, plus the value of improved quality of experience, the total value proposition becomes worth lot more than the $15 [in wholesale] that Oppenheimer projects as the ASP for embedded PicoP display engine for 2016.
Oppenheimer analysts estimates for ASP [average sale price] from FY 2010 thru FY 2016 are absurd; considering the fact that pico projection is not only a product [as in stand alone accessory unit] but it will also open-up new applications for the host [ when embedded]; application that never existed before. Pico projectors, as standalone accessory, will drive new sales in the non-existent pico projector market and sell more of the host product [with a service contract] when embedded to offer the added pico projection functionality.
That’s the way most all of us expect the market for pico projection to develop... and not the other way around where the host decides “if and when” to offer embedded pico projectors. Do you really think the pico projection market is going to sit on its ass [et] and wait for the host to get-off its ass [et] to let the market have the opportunity to embrace and experience all that pico projection has to offer.
Almost all mobile phone carriers offer a free phone in exchange for a service contract that legally binds the subscriber for two or three year service. Razor companies like Gillette offer free Razors in the hopes of selling you the blades for the rest of your life. More and more companies are adopting this business model... if and when their product lends itself to a perpetual service contact.
As this business model grows in popularity, innovative financial models will evolve, as these companies will need to make upfront capital investments and recover it from customers over many years. This business model will embrace PicoP projection like glove to hand and could be the game changer for the first adopter. Partnering with Microvision will be more like the partnership of champions... rather than Microvision looking for a strong OEM champion for its technology.
It’s not about technology... it’s about consumer experience and perception of quality and value.
Purchase orders from distributors, OEMs and mobile phone carriers are solid validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s laser PicoP projector.
Multiple features and functionalities of exceptional quality from one tiny PicoP display engine; will command a price that certainly will be lot more that the $15 in 2016.
In closing and at the risk of being redundant, I would repeat what I said before...
“You can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Microvision: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage with Report
On December 11th, Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Microvision with a “Perform” rating and also published an analyst’s report. Oppenheimer defines their “Perform” rating as...
“Stock expected to perform in line with S&P 500 within the next 12 – 18 months.”
Here’s the link to the report...
http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/EESNSzcJ8uD09D9dXZ4dbkj52EazTqVw1puiVQ_2lTWsMdWNb1sanl73dfHwBN5t_2ecNiDX5C-N-OrS2QsH0_KtCCXb/MVIS_OPP_1209.pdf
Oppenheimer Report is Comprehensive and an Excellent Source of Raw Information:
I just went through this 27 page report on Microvision. It is full of facts, figures, assumptions, estimates and projections and is an excellent read. The report is very comprehensive and provides, in detail, the kind of information we have know for a while; but have been looking for validation all these months. The overall tone of this report is very conservative and that is to be expected from a tier one Institutional Broker/Investment Banker.
Oppenheimer Relationship with Microvision:
First, let’s look at Oppenheimer and their relationship with Microvision...
Oppenheimer is one of the Investment Bankers that assisted Microvision with secondary public financing and raised over $31 million dollars just a few days ago. I doubt they would have kept MVIS on their “potential investment candidates list” if they were not certain that MVIS has future potential. Let’s face it... there are hundreds of small cap companies out there that have zero revenues but with huge future potential. Just because Oppenheimer did the secondary funding, for a fee, it does not obligate them to provide analyst coverage... unless they were certain that the clouds [of green lasers] would clear soon and the Sun would shine upon Microvision in the next few months.
Oppenheimer Report is Based on Very Conservative Assumptions, Estimates and Projections:
Over the last few years, most analysts have gone very conservative; when it comes to small cap companies with essentially no revenues and zero income streams to work with. Analyst projections assume varying degrees of errors and look many years ahead into the future to develop their “Valuation and DCF Analysis Model”. Most analysts specialize in certain sectors and over the years they develop sector expertise and also establish working relationships with the management of companies they follow.
Oppenheimer Report is very conservative for basically two reasons...
• Pico projection market did not exist a year ago, but it is growing so rapidly that it has finally attracted analyst coverage. Obviously, it is clear that these two young analysts have no experience or expertise in the pico projection market... because it did not exist until a year ago and it is only now that companies have started to ship product in this emerging market. After reading the report, it is also obvious that Oppenheimer analysts are using their “consumer electronics” business knowledge and expertise to develop assumptions, estimates and projections for the pico projection market. This approach to analysis is not only conservative─ because consumer electronics is a mature industry─ but it is also erroneous; because it wrongly assumes that future pico projection business will model after the consumer electronics business model. This sort of thinking is naive and shows-off the shallowness of Oppenheimer analysis.
• It seems that Oppenheimer Report was developed in vacuum; as it seems to completely ignore any input from other industry experts, as well as, input from the CEO of Microvision and others. In my opinion, any estimate/projection that completely ignores the input from those that are close to pico projection industry are just one man’s opinion as against the other... like Oppenheimer analyst vs. you or me. What good are the estimates and projections that are pulled from the thin air and without any input from industry player and experts?
Microvision investors could be accused of having blind faith in their investment... but thanks to Oppenheimer analysts, now we got another blind leading the blind.
Granted, that the input from Microvision CEO and other industry player could be considered biased. And in case of Microvision, I would even go a step further and say: “Data may not be so reliable considering Alex Tokman’s recent history of waffling the green laser question(s) and the muted SHOWwx product launch.” I can also understand that the pico projection industry is so new that it is hard for the analyst community to start trusting assumptions, estimates and projections provided by others. However, developing an analysis that is based on your own consumer electronics industry background, experience and pre-conceived ideas is no better or worse than that provided by you or by me at the blog: http://www.mirro7.blogspot.com/
Given the choice, and I do have a choice, I would rather stick to my analysis based on my own assumptions, estimates and projections that are more plausible... since I have been following the pico projection industry for over four years. Some of us are invested in Microvision for over ten years. Yes, our assumptions and estimates could be considered as biased because we are so heavily invested in Microvision. However, that is just the point? Our assumptions and estimates form the basis of our DD that has resulted in investing millions of dollars in Microvision stock. We have put-up our hard earned money on the line... like putting our money where our mouth is. Talk is cheap and that’s what Oppenheimer analysts are doing... but are they willing to walk the walk or just talk the talk.
Is Oppenheimer a Double Talk Wall Street Wizard?
Well, you be the judge! I’ll just give you something to think about...
After reading Oppenheimer Report, not many would consider Microvision stock as a growth stock and worthy of speculative investment at this early stage. But only a few days ago, Oppenheimer helped to raise over $31 million dollars for Microvision in a secondary public offering. That’s interesting... don’t you think?
Some of us have been invested in MVIS stock for years and certainly have more firsthand knowledge of Microvision, pico projection technology and its potential consumer demand and adoption rates. We are not only investors but are also consumers that have tremendous interest in pico projection technology and understand the changes it will bring to infotainment, communications, collaboration, networking with friends, family and business associates.
On surface, Oppenheimer Report is ultra conservative and is based on unrealistic assumptions, estimates and projections... and displays total ignorance of the pico projection industry. If you have read my post this far, I’m sure you know the basis for my strong feelings and comments about Oppenheimer on this subject?
I agree that Microvision is no longer in the “Romance Phase” and is currently going through the “Transition Phase”. While a company, like Microvision, is going through the Transition Phase, no analyst is going to stick his neck out to risk a career or loose clients over it. The safest route for them to take is to put out a conservative report for the record... followed by informal communication with their institutional and retail clients.
Is this practice illegal or unethical?
Hell, no... It is done all the time as a standard practice. Over the last 25 years, I have traded over a billion dollars worth of stocks and options... and at one time I had Oppenheimer as my full service broker.
Keep an eye on the MVIS stock action for the next few months; while the company is still in Transition Phase. If the stock keeps moving up by a few cents here and there on very low volume... you have the confirmation that “you have been duped by the Wall Street Wizards again.”
Sooner or later, perhaps in the next four to six months, the company Microvision will get through the Transition Phase and start dealing with the reality of its fate that depends so much on the green lasers. Once the green laser issue is resolved, the company will enter the “Reality Phase” and will then start dealing with another set of issues.
These issues, like sales revenue and margins, are much easier to quantify and that’s when these analysts are expected to come-up with some realistic projections.
Oppenheimer Report Uses Erroneous Methodology for Pico Projection Market:
Pico projection market did not exist a year ago, but it is growing so rapidly that it is now starting to get analyst coverage. Obviously, it is clear that these two young analysts have no experience or expertise in the pico projection market... because it did not exist until a year ago and it is only now that companies have started to ship product in this emerging market. Oppenheimer analysts are using their “consumer electronics” business knowledge and expertise to develop assumptions, estimates and projections for the pico projection market. That is the fundamental flaw in their analysis and valuation methodology; which is modeled after an “accessory product in mature consumer electronics industry”. No wonder the assumptions, estimates and projections in their model are so absurdly conservative and have colossal margin of error... by their own admission.
The “Facts and Figures” quoted in the report are─ what they are, and I don’t have much argument with that. However, I don’t necessarily agree with many of their assumptions, estimates and projections... because they are not relevant to the pico projection industry.
My post may consists of several parts due to the very complex nature of Microvision being an investment opportunity of a lifetime with an emerging technology that will bring about a paradigm shift in the way we gather information, entertain, communicate, collaborate, and network with friends; family; and business associates. I don’t think Oppenheimer analysts have the full grasp over how the pico projection technology will evolve and the changes it is about to bring in our lives. Because, if these folks really understood the true impact and the rate of adoption of pico projection technology, they would have used more realistic numbers in their estimates and forecasts!
It is interesting that Oppenheimer analysts clearly admit the “colossal margin of error” in their assumptions, estimates and projections. It is, therefore, in my opinion, the so called facts and figures are subject to not only interpretation; but also have a monumental margin of error.
Here’s a direct quote from the report on page7...
“We take these estimates with a hefty pinch of salt, knowing that any prediction about the long-term growth trajectory of a newly emerging technology involves a colossal margin of error. That being said, the 2009 pico projector unit and growth figures provide a couple of simple but encouraging insights into the pico projector market: First, that it is already sizable and is becoming more sizeable (with retail sales approaching $43 million), and second, that it is growing very fast.”
In my opinion, their statement of “colossal margin of error” pretty much sums-it-up as the overall basis for the development of their “Exhibit 8: Summary Model”. I don’t have to read any further beyond past page 16, and waste my time evaluating their “Valuation” and “DCF Analysis”... for the simple reason; it is based on colossal margin of error.
The focus of my analysis and multi-part post will cover material only up to “Exhibit 8: Summary Model” on page 16.
Just look at Exhibit 8: Summary Model...
I honestly tell you, my ten year old son “Alan” could do a better job in coming up with more realistic estimates and projection for the picop market growth and adoption rates than these Oppenheimer analysts.
Recently, I helped Alan with his 4th grade school project report on “Cool Gadgets of Our Time”. He had 28 kids, from his class of 28, interested in buying a pico projector. To me that means huge market, exponential market growth with 100% adoption rates.
Let me be very clear...
I’m not suggesting that we use such extreme numbers like Alan’s as the basis for Oppenheimer Report by any means... but it does make the point when you look at their Summary Model projection of 875,000 SHOWwx units sold in year 2016. How is that possible? There are over 3.2 billion cell phone users and over 1 billion laptop owners in the world. That's less than 0.02% adoption rate in an existing market in year 2016. Are they telling me that by 2016, only about 875,000 would buy a Microvision SHOWwx... and that’s including the high definition SHOWwx model that will be even brighter than it is today?
What are these guys [analysts] from Oppenheimer smoking?
After getting feedback from Alan on his class report, I felt guilty about giving this kid only $15 a week for his lunch money. Alan writes well, and with his analytical and presentation skills he could easily make a few hundred grand at Oppenheimer?
Having said that lets move on to the next absurdity...
Oppenheimer analyst estimates for ASP [average sale price] from FY 2010 thru FY 2016 are absurd; considering the fact that pico projection is not only a product [as in stand alone accessory unit] but it will also open-up new applications for the host, when embedded, that never existed before. Pico projectors, as standalone accessory, will drive new sales in the non-existent pico projector market and sell more of the host [and service contracts] when embedded to offer additional pico projection functionality. That’s the way most all of us expect the market for pico projection to develop... and not the other way around where the host decides “if and when” to offer embedded pico projectors. Do you really think the pico projection market is going to sit on its ass [et] and wait for the host to get-off its ass [et] to let the market have the opportunity to embrace and experience all that pico projection has to offer.
Oppenheimer Report is Shallow and Lacks Vision...
There are several paradigm shift(s) in progress and gaining momentum. Each one of these paradigm shift converges or embraces high quality pico projection in one form or the other. If you have the vision, you will see what I’m seeing already taking place...
• Wide screen HD Multi-media infotainment for one or many... in various settings; like living room, bedroom, boardroom, outdoors, and hotel room, airports, and cars and so on.
Research has shown that users prefer video communication over other forms of communication [text, sound, smell, touch] and video will continue to be the preferred means of all human communications. Research has also shown that users prefer wide screen, high definition, 2D/3D video with fast refresh [without motion blur] and always in focus images for all forms of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• Planned one-on-one or one-to-many mobile infotainment, communications, collaboration, and networking. Mass adoption of Netbook computers, smartphones, and mobile TVs around the globe.
Users prefer mobility: The entire world [users and service providers] is getting into the instant gratification mode and going mobile in all forms of communications and entertainment across the globe.
• Impromptu one-on-one or one-to-many mobile infotainment, communications, collaboration and networking.
• Technological convergence is the tendency for different technological systems to evolve towards performing similar tasks. Today, we are surrounded by a multi-level convergent media world where all modes of communication and information are continually reforming to adapt to the enduring demands of technologies, “changing the way we create, consume, entertain, learn and interact with each other”.
Convergence in this instance is defined as the interlinking of computing and other information technologies, media content and communication networks that have arisen as the result of the evolution and ubiquity of the Internet as well as the activities, products and services that have emerged in the digital media space.
• Flexible resource utilization and sharing... like one mobile TV/projector to replace many television sets in millions of households around the globe.
• Augmented reality and its applications will become common place, bridging the gap between the physical world and the digital world... and it will continue to be one of the main thrusts of new technology developments.
“How do you define real? If you’re talking about what you can feel, smell, taste and see, then real is simply those neuroelectric signals interpreted by your brain. However, that reality just got augmented as in “augmented reality”, when the live view of the physical real-world environment whose elements are merged with (or augmented by) virtual computer-generated imagary... creating a mixed reality. The augmentation is conventionally in real time and with the help of advanced AR technology (e.g. adding computer vision and object recognition) the information about the surrounding real world of the user becomes interactive and digitally usable.
• Peak Oil and Carbon Footprint phenomenon prompting renewed efforts to conserve energy around the globe. Low energy footprint of a pico projector will be a desirable alternative... without sacrificing HD widescreen viewing experience.
• The eventual death of multiple TVs per household and the replacement for energy guzzling LCD and Plasma TVs around the globe. Energy for food coming back to take precedent over energy for entertainment in the next five to ten years.
In addition to the above paradigm shifts, there are two mega business trends that are underway that could directly or indirectly effect on how the pico projectors come to the market and these trends would certainly impact picop adoption rates...
• Free Product for Service Contract: Productization, or the ability to package a solution or process into a saleable product, was once the Holy Grail of businesses. Design a better mousetrap and the world would beat a path to your door. But more and more businesses today are realizing that it is better to offer pest control as a perpetual paid service instead of selling a mousetrap as a one-time transaction. Lock the customers into predictable and legal contracts which become more profitable over the life cycle of the product.
Almost all mobile phone carriers offer a free phone in exchange for a service contract that legally binds the subscriber for two or three year service. Razor companies like Gillette offer free Razors in the hopes of selling you the blades for the rest of your life. More and more companies are adopting this business model... if and when their product lends itself to a perpetual service contact.
As this business model grows in popularity, innovative financial models will evolve, as these companies will need to make upfront capital investments and recover it from customers over many years. This business model will embrace PicoP projection like glove to hand and could be the game changer for the first adopter. Partnering with Microvision will be more like the partnership of champions... rather than Microvison looking for a strong OEM champion for its technology. Its not about technology... its about consumer experience and perception of quality and value.
• Vertical Integration Growth Model: For years, the big multi-national corporations that operated in multiple industries weren’t supposed to be a good idea. Stock market investors valued these companies at less than the sum of their various business divisions, for reasons ranging from lack of deep expertise across businesses, less transparency in disclosing financial numbers and extra layers of management required to steer an unwieldy ship. GE offers a real life example of the pitfalls of running too many businesses. But as GE hacks off businesses not core to what it considers its strengths — Genpact, television network NBC Universal, GE Plastics — a bunch of other new global companies are trying to become the new multi-national conglomerates.
Google, for example is now making its own servers and solar panels, acquiring content from authors and media companies, creating operating systems and programming languages and digitizing satellite and space maps for consumers. The list of businesses owned by the Indian company Tata group (India’s largest IT services company, luxury hotels, DTH television services, steel manufacturing, water purification, automobiles) would put even GE to shame. Apple, originally just a computer maker, today makes all types of consumer electronic devices, runs the world’s most successful music app (iTunes) and mobile phone application services (iPhone App Store).
Oppenheimer analysts may not realize this, but HD pico projection market in 2011 will be huge. And it will impact so many industries in so many different ways around the world; that Microvision could be the target of an acquisition by one of the multi-nationals with a vision. We can throw a few tickets in the hat to speculate, shall we...
Oppenheimer Report has Colossal Margin of Error:
If you are weak at heart, and are willing to pay much higher price for MVIS, then wait for confirmation [or affirmation] by the Wall Street Wizards... in this case Oppenheimer.
If you feel comfortable and don’t mind volatility... pay some premium over the current prices and buy May 2010 Calls at 2.50 or 5 strikes.
No body said it was going to be a “cakewalk” investing in Microvision stock... especially with Oppenheimer lurking in the background.
Now, if it makes you feel any better, the Microvision story hasn’t changed... it still remains the opportunity of a lifetime. Here’s why...
• Virtually everything that needs validation has been validated and is ready to go. World’s first laser pico projector SHOWwx is in production─ even if in small quantities and some big name OEM customers have placed orders. Microvision has some big name partners that feel the laser PicoP technology and its future potential is worth their time, effort and investment to further the cause.
• The main issue currently is the green laser supply. But that will change soon... as Osram goes on-line with cheaper and simpler to manufacture SHG green laser. By mid 2010, the green laser production quantities will not be an issue and in all probability Corning will be out with its G-2000 enhanced green lasers with a time line for ramp-up to production.
After reading the Oppenheimer report, I went into the bathroom to look at my face in the mirror... just to make sure it turned red with anger and not turning blue from a heart attack. After counting to fifty and running some facts and figure in my head, I remembered that I had made a mental note to read top of page 7 again.
And that’s exactly what I did...
On top of page 7 in the Oppenheimer Report it says...
“We take these estimates with a hefty pinch of salt, knowing that any prediction about the long-term growth trajectory of a newly emerging technology involves a colossal margin of error. That being said, the 2009 pico projector unit and growth figures provide a couple of simple but encouraging insights into the pico projector market: First, that it is already sizable and is becoming more sizeable (with retail sales approaching $43 million), and second, that it is growing very fast.”
In hindsight, I wish I had paid more attention to this very paragraph and read rest of the report for entertainment purpose only and not get all worked-up and almost get a heart attack.
I don’t necessarily agree with many of their assumptions, estimates and projections; and I fully intend on discussing them in my blog. Oppenheimer analysts clearly admit the colossal margin of error in their estimates and projections... and therefore their so called facts and figures are subject to not only interpretation... but also have a monumental margin of error.
There two observations that I would make from reading these comments about “colossal margin of error” from the Oppenheimer Report...
• Oppenheimer analysts seem to be taking a dig at Alex Tokman, Microvision CEO, and also trying to send a message by publishing such deflated projections since Alex avoided discussing the quantities of SHOWwx in any detail during the 3rd Qtr conference call. These analysts contradict and ignore AT in a couple of areas... like the initial embedded pico display engine quantities runs to be in the 1M to 5M range, guidance on profitability to come 2 Qtrs. after embedded picop launch, and embedded picop launch to come 9 to 12 months after SHOWwx launch.
Many analysts will take a very conservative posture when initiating coverage on a small cap company like Microvision. This approach gives them time to get comfortable with the management; learn the business and market opportunity; and save some ammunition for future upgrades when the next catalyst comes along. This strategy keeps them gainfully employed and in such a scenario, when they do upgrade, it will be more meaningful.
• I also think this blurb regarding Oppenheimer analyst projections from the report is very telling...
"We take these estimates with a hefty pinch of salt, knowing that any prediction about the long-term growth trajectory of a newly emerging technology involves a colossal margin of error.”
Don’t you find it interesting; the analyst statement about “colossal margin of error?”
To me it looks like they are saying...
“Take our projections with a pinch of salt because our estimates could be off by a "colossal" margin.”
Yep, you are right... I said with a smile.
Oppenheimer Makes Mockery of Companies in the Pico Projection Market:
There are may be 50 to 100 companies involved in the pico projection market. These companies have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in capital expenditures, R&D and operating costs based on their own estimates and projections over the last few years.
In the Oppenheimer Report, the estimates and projections for the picop market size and adoption rates are summarized in Exhibit 8: Summary Model. In the year 2016, they are projecting the entire SA market for 8.75 million units at $75 ASP each and the embedded market for 250 million units at $15 ASP each. I have no questions about the market size and Microvision’s market share numbers. What baffles me, however, are the unit price projections for high definition SHOWwx and embedded pico projectors... all the way from FY 2010 thru FY 2016. Projecting $75 ASP for a high definition SHOWwx and $15 ASP for a high definition embedded unit in FY 2016 is absurd... and reflects how ignorant and naive these two analysts at Oppenheimer really are.
Speak to any of the key players in the pico projection industry and you will find out first hand that these guys at Oppenheimer are pulling numbers from thin air and comparing the pico projection market [for pricing purposes] to the touch screen market for smartphones. In addition to the absurd ASP pricing model their projection methodology is also questioning the use case for embedded pico projector. By doing so, Oppenheimer is questioning the business case model of ALL the companies involved in pico projection business.
There are close to 100 companies in this space...
• MEMS mirror, DLP and LcoS panel makers
• LED and Laser light makers
• ASIC and other semiconductor makers
• Makers of beam combiners, lens makers, light engine makers etc.
How would you rate the probability that ALL these companies are wrong with their estimates and made their investments in vacuum; and that Oppenheimer analysts are right?
Not right!!!
But don’t get me wrong, we will see a lot of these companies go away in the next 2-3 years as the market will most likely consolidate... with leaders jostling for top position.
Oppenheimer Report is Grossly Wrong in their Estimates and Projection for ASPs:
First, I want you to do a side-by-side image comparison – SHOWwx vs. the Competition
That is one thing so far, what’s been missing is the side-by-side comparison of SHOWwx with what the competition has to offer?
Well, here it is finally... and ironically the source is Oppenheimer from their analyst report on Microvision...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
When I looked at the image size and quality, my first reaction was...
• Pico projector from 3M, using LcoS technology, aroused the feelings that you would have towards a “sick dog” that needs to be put to sleep and put out of its misery. Half baked product like that gives bad name to pico projection technology. 3M is a multi-billion dollar company and I expected somewhat higher quality watermark than what you see. Rushing a product to the market before it’s time is not only bad judgment but poor marketing strategy... end of story.
• Pico projector from TI, using DLP technology, is decent and would be acceptable image quality for the right price. If TI/DLP had no competition from Microvision’s SHOWwx, then they would do just fine... like a dog that could hunt. There would still be issues of long throw ratio, limited image size, low resolution and need to re-focus every time there was a change in Image size or projector location.
• Pico projector from Microvision, using laser MEMS scanning technology, speaks for itself. It needs no words and all I’m going to say: “A picture speaks a thousand words”. To quote what Oppenheimer said in their report...
“The PicoP image has better color rendering; doesn’t require focusing; and is larger, sharper, and more uniform from center to edge.”
Microvision’s laser Pico projection technology is far superior to others out there, and has a bright future; once the green laser bottleneck issue is behind us.
When you look at the 3M/LCoS and TI/DLP pico projector images, you have to wonder that they do need a strong OEM champion for their technology. Without one, they may be left out as the stranded puppy that no one wants to own.
One the other hand, SHOWwx image size and quality, coming from such a tiny projector, arouses the sense of awe and will attract many OEMs that would want to be champions alongside of Microvision.
It’s not just about technology; it’s about what technology would eventually do for consumers... people like you and me. If Microvision SHOWwx technology arouses the sense of awe to-day, just wait another year and you will be delighted with the HD resolution of the image and the brightness of the light source.
While Microvision is all tangled-up with green laser supply issues, the two competitors can, and will, hog the feed at the trough. However, their party may not last too long... because sooner or later, the green lasers will be plentiful; and Microvision hound dog will have its muzzle removed and let go to hunt, to bully and to claim its rightful place at the head of the trough.
Now let’s talk about Oppenheimer estimates and projections for SHOWwx and embedded picop ASPs. In all honesty, if I was looking at just the 3M pico projection images, I would agree with Oppenheimer analysts wholeheartedly.
But, such is not the case.
Microvision’s laser based pico projector SHOWwx and the embedded display engine is in a class of its own.
If you were paying attention and listening to Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, you will remember him saying...
“Microvision Wants to be a Major Player in the Imaging Market Place”
He continued by saying...
“Laser steering projector is the bread and butter of Microvision for the foreseeable future and we are going to focus on the embedded PicoP to make the company profitable.” [Believed to be the words of Alex Tokman]
“Microvision is positioning itself thru patents and IP to be a major player in the image community. He (Alex) said: “Microvision is not going to be a small component provider that can be marginalized by bigger players.”
Alex sees the company as an INTEL type company. He is going to make the company a player in the image industry. That explains the “Image by PicoP” as the slogan chosen for the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
Please read my post on…
Yes Virginia: “It’s Intel Inside… but Image by PicoP.”
Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/yes-virginia-its-intel-inside-but-image.html
Alex mentioned a few things as to why he believes the product [PicoP display engine] is going to be successful…
• Uniqueness: nobody has lasers… nobody is doing what we are doing.
• Thin Form Factor: nobody has our size and nobody can do HD images without getting bigger.
• Longer Battery life: up to 2 hours currently vs. 45 minutes for the competition.
• Infinite focus: nobody else has it.
• Larger screen experience: from 12” to 150” diagonal under certain ambient light conditions.
• Superior small font readability: we are the only one that has 8 pt readable font.
• Uniformity of brightness: Images are uniformly bright from edge to edge, unlike some other competitors.
• No rainbow effect.
• Twice the color gamut (range) of NTSC
• WVGA resolution with sharper image detail... and future Pathway to high definition and brighter laser lights.
Currently, the competition comes from two major players, TI with its DLP technology and 3M with its LcoS technology. The competition sells its second generation Pico projector for about $295 and the quality of the image from their projectors looks like the picture on the left side. Microvision’s PicoP projector SHOWwx, on the other hand, projects its image better than the one on the right side.
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
If $295 was assumed as the average price for the baseline model and functionality [in-line with what the competition is asking], then Microvision could [and should] charge $495 for not only the better quality and vivid images but also some very interesting and differentiating features…
• Always-in-focus on any projected surface [projecting on curved surfaces or from an angel on flat surfaces]
• Short throw ratio 1:1 [bigger picture from short distance]
• Stunningly colorful, bright, vivid and detailed images [200% NTSC]
• Large images size [from 20” to 200” diagonal ]
• Higher image resolution (848×480) with HD pathway in future models
• Unmatched small font readability [size 8 font]
• Wide aspect ratio 16:9 [for wide screen experience]
• Fast refresh [60 Hz] to prevent motion blur when watching sports or action videos and movies
• High contrast ratio 5000:1
• Easy and simple plug and play. Single connector for TV-out [composite], VGA [RGB] and 3.5mm stereo jack─ audio pass through
• Low power and longer battery life. Movie capable battery life when fully charged. Charges via Micro-USB
• Extended warranty service… why not with all that MEMS reliability and exceeding drop test performance
• Ready for in-bed watching videos and movies on the ceiling
• All cables and leather case included
• Trade-in offer [worth $100 in exchange value] for any future PicoP projector purchase.
All these features are inherent in the laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx and the pico display engine; and they don’t really cost anything extra but they allow you to monetize the superior product functionality that Microvision offers.
There is no reason for Microvision to give it away for free…
Oppenheimer analyst estimates and projections assume pico projection business to model like the consumer electronics business model [much like the touch screen accessory for the smartphones] and that is grossly wrong. It’s not going to happen that way... no matter how Oppenheimer analysts qualify their half baked numbers by stating “Colossal Margin of Error” on page 7 of the report.
If someone wants to believe Oppenheimer analyst estimates and projections for ASPs, then let them...
Because buying SA at $75 or embedded at $15 is not going to happen... now or later.
If it does happen, then in all probability the buyer is buying some Chinese crap... only cheaper.
In closing, I highly recommend that you read Oppenheimer Report from page to page.
When you are done reading... file it under “Entertainment” and wait for the next upgrade... because that Report will be more meaning full than this half baked cookie dough.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
“Stock expected to perform in line with S&P 500 within the next 12 – 18 months.”
Here’s the link to the report...
http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/EESNSzcJ8uD09D9dXZ4dbkj52EazTqVw1puiVQ_2lTWsMdWNb1sanl73dfHwBN5t_2ecNiDX5C-N-OrS2QsH0_KtCCXb/MVIS_OPP_1209.pdf
Oppenheimer Report is Comprehensive and an Excellent Source of Raw Information:
I just went through this 27 page report on Microvision. It is full of facts, figures, assumptions, estimates and projections and is an excellent read. The report is very comprehensive and provides, in detail, the kind of information we have know for a while; but have been looking for validation all these months. The overall tone of this report is very conservative and that is to be expected from a tier one Institutional Broker/Investment Banker.
Oppenheimer Relationship with Microvision:
First, let’s look at Oppenheimer and their relationship with Microvision...
Oppenheimer is one of the Investment Bankers that assisted Microvision with secondary public financing and raised over $31 million dollars just a few days ago. I doubt they would have kept MVIS on their “potential investment candidates list” if they were not certain that MVIS has future potential. Let’s face it... there are hundreds of small cap companies out there that have zero revenues but with huge future potential. Just because Oppenheimer did the secondary funding, for a fee, it does not obligate them to provide analyst coverage... unless they were certain that the clouds [of green lasers] would clear soon and the Sun would shine upon Microvision in the next few months.
Oppenheimer Report is Based on Very Conservative Assumptions, Estimates and Projections:
Over the last few years, most analysts have gone very conservative; when it comes to small cap companies with essentially no revenues and zero income streams to work with. Analyst projections assume varying degrees of errors and look many years ahead into the future to develop their “Valuation and DCF Analysis Model”. Most analysts specialize in certain sectors and over the years they develop sector expertise and also establish working relationships with the management of companies they follow.
Oppenheimer Report is very conservative for basically two reasons...
• Pico projection market did not exist a year ago, but it is growing so rapidly that it has finally attracted analyst coverage. Obviously, it is clear that these two young analysts have no experience or expertise in the pico projection market... because it did not exist until a year ago and it is only now that companies have started to ship product in this emerging market. After reading the report, it is also obvious that Oppenheimer analysts are using their “consumer electronics” business knowledge and expertise to develop assumptions, estimates and projections for the pico projection market. This approach to analysis is not only conservative─ because consumer electronics is a mature industry─ but it is also erroneous; because it wrongly assumes that future pico projection business will model after the consumer electronics business model. This sort of thinking is naive and shows-off the shallowness of Oppenheimer analysis.
• It seems that Oppenheimer Report was developed in vacuum; as it seems to completely ignore any input from other industry experts, as well as, input from the CEO of Microvision and others. In my opinion, any estimate/projection that completely ignores the input from those that are close to pico projection industry are just one man’s opinion as against the other... like Oppenheimer analyst vs. you or me. What good are the estimates and projections that are pulled from the thin air and without any input from industry player and experts?
Microvision investors could be accused of having blind faith in their investment... but thanks to Oppenheimer analysts, now we got another blind leading the blind.
Granted, that the input from Microvision CEO and other industry player could be considered biased. And in case of Microvision, I would even go a step further and say: “Data may not be so reliable considering Alex Tokman’s recent history of waffling the green laser question(s) and the muted SHOWwx product launch.” I can also understand that the pico projection industry is so new that it is hard for the analyst community to start trusting assumptions, estimates and projections provided by others. However, developing an analysis that is based on your own consumer electronics industry background, experience and pre-conceived ideas is no better or worse than that provided by you or by me at the blog: http://www.mirro7.blogspot.com/
Given the choice, and I do have a choice, I would rather stick to my analysis based on my own assumptions, estimates and projections that are more plausible... since I have been following the pico projection industry for over four years. Some of us are invested in Microvision for over ten years. Yes, our assumptions and estimates could be considered as biased because we are so heavily invested in Microvision. However, that is just the point? Our assumptions and estimates form the basis of our DD that has resulted in investing millions of dollars in Microvision stock. We have put-up our hard earned money on the line... like putting our money where our mouth is. Talk is cheap and that’s what Oppenheimer analysts are doing... but are they willing to walk the walk or just talk the talk.
Is Oppenheimer a Double Talk Wall Street Wizard?
Well, you be the judge! I’ll just give you something to think about...
After reading Oppenheimer Report, not many would consider Microvision stock as a growth stock and worthy of speculative investment at this early stage. But only a few days ago, Oppenheimer helped to raise over $31 million dollars for Microvision in a secondary public offering. That’s interesting... don’t you think?
Some of us have been invested in MVIS stock for years and certainly have more firsthand knowledge of Microvision, pico projection technology and its potential consumer demand and adoption rates. We are not only investors but are also consumers that have tremendous interest in pico projection technology and understand the changes it will bring to infotainment, communications, collaboration, networking with friends, family and business associates.
On surface, Oppenheimer Report is ultra conservative and is based on unrealistic assumptions, estimates and projections... and displays total ignorance of the pico projection industry. If you have read my post this far, I’m sure you know the basis for my strong feelings and comments about Oppenheimer on this subject?
I agree that Microvision is no longer in the “Romance Phase” and is currently going through the “Transition Phase”. While a company, like Microvision, is going through the Transition Phase, no analyst is going to stick his neck out to risk a career or loose clients over it. The safest route for them to take is to put out a conservative report for the record... followed by informal communication with their institutional and retail clients.
Is this practice illegal or unethical?
Hell, no... It is done all the time as a standard practice. Over the last 25 years, I have traded over a billion dollars worth of stocks and options... and at one time I had Oppenheimer as my full service broker.
Keep an eye on the MVIS stock action for the next few months; while the company is still in Transition Phase. If the stock keeps moving up by a few cents here and there on very low volume... you have the confirmation that “you have been duped by the Wall Street Wizards again.”
Sooner or later, perhaps in the next four to six months, the company Microvision will get through the Transition Phase and start dealing with the reality of its fate that depends so much on the green lasers. Once the green laser issue is resolved, the company will enter the “Reality Phase” and will then start dealing with another set of issues.
These issues, like sales revenue and margins, are much easier to quantify and that’s when these analysts are expected to come-up with some realistic projections.
Oppenheimer Report Uses Erroneous Methodology for Pico Projection Market:
Pico projection market did not exist a year ago, but it is growing so rapidly that it is now starting to get analyst coverage. Obviously, it is clear that these two young analysts have no experience or expertise in the pico projection market... because it did not exist until a year ago and it is only now that companies have started to ship product in this emerging market. Oppenheimer analysts are using their “consumer electronics” business knowledge and expertise to develop assumptions, estimates and projections for the pico projection market. That is the fundamental flaw in their analysis and valuation methodology; which is modeled after an “accessory product in mature consumer electronics industry”. No wonder the assumptions, estimates and projections in their model are so absurdly conservative and have colossal margin of error... by their own admission.
The “Facts and Figures” quoted in the report are─ what they are, and I don’t have much argument with that. However, I don’t necessarily agree with many of their assumptions, estimates and projections... because they are not relevant to the pico projection industry.
My post may consists of several parts due to the very complex nature of Microvision being an investment opportunity of a lifetime with an emerging technology that will bring about a paradigm shift in the way we gather information, entertain, communicate, collaborate, and network with friends; family; and business associates. I don’t think Oppenheimer analysts have the full grasp over how the pico projection technology will evolve and the changes it is about to bring in our lives. Because, if these folks really understood the true impact and the rate of adoption of pico projection technology, they would have used more realistic numbers in their estimates and forecasts!
It is interesting that Oppenheimer analysts clearly admit the “colossal margin of error” in their assumptions, estimates and projections. It is, therefore, in my opinion, the so called facts and figures are subject to not only interpretation; but also have a monumental margin of error.
Here’s a direct quote from the report on page7...
“We take these estimates with a hefty pinch of salt, knowing that any prediction about the long-term growth trajectory of a newly emerging technology involves a colossal margin of error. That being said, the 2009 pico projector unit and growth figures provide a couple of simple but encouraging insights into the pico projector market: First, that it is already sizable and is becoming more sizeable (with retail sales approaching $43 million), and second, that it is growing very fast.”
In my opinion, their statement of “colossal margin of error” pretty much sums-it-up as the overall basis for the development of their “Exhibit 8: Summary Model”. I don’t have to read any further beyond past page 16, and waste my time evaluating their “Valuation” and “DCF Analysis”... for the simple reason; it is based on colossal margin of error.
The focus of my analysis and multi-part post will cover material only up to “Exhibit 8: Summary Model” on page 16.
Just look at Exhibit 8: Summary Model...
I honestly tell you, my ten year old son “Alan” could do a better job in coming up with more realistic estimates and projection for the picop market growth and adoption rates than these Oppenheimer analysts.
Recently, I helped Alan with his 4th grade school project report on “Cool Gadgets of Our Time”. He had 28 kids, from his class of 28, interested in buying a pico projector. To me that means huge market, exponential market growth with 100% adoption rates.
Let me be very clear...
I’m not suggesting that we use such extreme numbers like Alan’s as the basis for Oppenheimer Report by any means... but it does make the point when you look at their Summary Model projection of 875,000 SHOWwx units sold in year 2016. How is that possible? There are over 3.2 billion cell phone users and over 1 billion laptop owners in the world. That's less than 0.02% adoption rate in an existing market in year 2016. Are they telling me that by 2016, only about 875,000 would buy a Microvision SHOWwx... and that’s including the high definition SHOWwx model that will be even brighter than it is today?
What are these guys [analysts] from Oppenheimer smoking?
After getting feedback from Alan on his class report, I felt guilty about giving this kid only $15 a week for his lunch money. Alan writes well, and with his analytical and presentation skills he could easily make a few hundred grand at Oppenheimer?
Having said that lets move on to the next absurdity...
Oppenheimer analyst estimates for ASP [average sale price] from FY 2010 thru FY 2016 are absurd; considering the fact that pico projection is not only a product [as in stand alone accessory unit] but it will also open-up new applications for the host, when embedded, that never existed before. Pico projectors, as standalone accessory, will drive new sales in the non-existent pico projector market and sell more of the host [and service contracts] when embedded to offer additional pico projection functionality. That’s the way most all of us expect the market for pico projection to develop... and not the other way around where the host decides “if and when” to offer embedded pico projectors. Do you really think the pico projection market is going to sit on its ass [et] and wait for the host to get-off its ass [et] to let the market have the opportunity to embrace and experience all that pico projection has to offer.
Oppenheimer Report is Shallow and Lacks Vision...
There are several paradigm shift(s) in progress and gaining momentum. Each one of these paradigm shift converges or embraces high quality pico projection in one form or the other. If you have the vision, you will see what I’m seeing already taking place...
• Wide screen HD Multi-media infotainment for one or many... in various settings; like living room, bedroom, boardroom, outdoors, and hotel room, airports, and cars and so on.
Research has shown that users prefer video communication over other forms of communication [text, sound, smell, touch] and video will continue to be the preferred means of all human communications. Research has also shown that users prefer wide screen, high definition, 2D/3D video with fast refresh [without motion blur] and always in focus images for all forms of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• Planned one-on-one or one-to-many mobile infotainment, communications, collaboration, and networking. Mass adoption of Netbook computers, smartphones, and mobile TVs around the globe.
Users prefer mobility: The entire world [users and service providers] is getting into the instant gratification mode and going mobile in all forms of communications and entertainment across the globe.
• Impromptu one-on-one or one-to-many mobile infotainment, communications, collaboration and networking.
• Technological convergence is the tendency for different technological systems to evolve towards performing similar tasks. Today, we are surrounded by a multi-level convergent media world where all modes of communication and information are continually reforming to adapt to the enduring demands of technologies, “changing the way we create, consume, entertain, learn and interact with each other”.
Convergence in this instance is defined as the interlinking of computing and other information technologies, media content and communication networks that have arisen as the result of the evolution and ubiquity of the Internet as well as the activities, products and services that have emerged in the digital media space.
• Flexible resource utilization and sharing... like one mobile TV/projector to replace many television sets in millions of households around the globe.
• Augmented reality and its applications will become common place, bridging the gap between the physical world and the digital world... and it will continue to be one of the main thrusts of new technology developments.
“How do you define real? If you’re talking about what you can feel, smell, taste and see, then real is simply those neuroelectric signals interpreted by your brain. However, that reality just got augmented as in “augmented reality”, when the live view of the physical real-world environment whose elements are merged with (or augmented by) virtual computer-generated imagary... creating a mixed reality. The augmentation is conventionally in real time and with the help of advanced AR technology (e.g. adding computer vision and object recognition) the information about the surrounding real world of the user becomes interactive and digitally usable.
• Peak Oil and Carbon Footprint phenomenon prompting renewed efforts to conserve energy around the globe. Low energy footprint of a pico projector will be a desirable alternative... without sacrificing HD widescreen viewing experience.
• The eventual death of multiple TVs per household and the replacement for energy guzzling LCD and Plasma TVs around the globe. Energy for food coming back to take precedent over energy for entertainment in the next five to ten years.
In addition to the above paradigm shifts, there are two mega business trends that are underway that could directly or indirectly effect on how the pico projectors come to the market and these trends would certainly impact picop adoption rates...
• Free Product for Service Contract: Productization, or the ability to package a solution or process into a saleable product, was once the Holy Grail of businesses. Design a better mousetrap and the world would beat a path to your door. But more and more businesses today are realizing that it is better to offer pest control as a perpetual paid service instead of selling a mousetrap as a one-time transaction. Lock the customers into predictable and legal contracts which become more profitable over the life cycle of the product.
Almost all mobile phone carriers offer a free phone in exchange for a service contract that legally binds the subscriber for two or three year service. Razor companies like Gillette offer free Razors in the hopes of selling you the blades for the rest of your life. More and more companies are adopting this business model... if and when their product lends itself to a perpetual service contact.
As this business model grows in popularity, innovative financial models will evolve, as these companies will need to make upfront capital investments and recover it from customers over many years. This business model will embrace PicoP projection like glove to hand and could be the game changer for the first adopter. Partnering with Microvision will be more like the partnership of champions... rather than Microvison looking for a strong OEM champion for its technology. Its not about technology... its about consumer experience and perception of quality and value.
• Vertical Integration Growth Model: For years, the big multi-national corporations that operated in multiple industries weren’t supposed to be a good idea. Stock market investors valued these companies at less than the sum of their various business divisions, for reasons ranging from lack of deep expertise across businesses, less transparency in disclosing financial numbers and extra layers of management required to steer an unwieldy ship. GE offers a real life example of the pitfalls of running too many businesses. But as GE hacks off businesses not core to what it considers its strengths — Genpact, television network NBC Universal, GE Plastics — a bunch of other new global companies are trying to become the new multi-national conglomerates.
Google, for example is now making its own servers and solar panels, acquiring content from authors and media companies, creating operating systems and programming languages and digitizing satellite and space maps for consumers. The list of businesses owned by the Indian company Tata group (India’s largest IT services company, luxury hotels, DTH television services, steel manufacturing, water purification, automobiles) would put even GE to shame. Apple, originally just a computer maker, today makes all types of consumer electronic devices, runs the world’s most successful music app (iTunes) and mobile phone application services (iPhone App Store).
Oppenheimer analysts may not realize this, but HD pico projection market in 2011 will be huge. And it will impact so many industries in so many different ways around the world; that Microvision could be the target of an acquisition by one of the multi-nationals with a vision. We can throw a few tickets in the hat to speculate, shall we...
- Microsoft
- Apple
- Cisco
- 3M
Oppenheimer Report has Colossal Margin of Error:
If you are weak at heart, and are willing to pay much higher price for MVIS, then wait for confirmation [or affirmation] by the Wall Street Wizards... in this case Oppenheimer.
If you feel comfortable and don’t mind volatility... pay some premium over the current prices and buy May 2010 Calls at 2.50 or 5 strikes.
No body said it was going to be a “cakewalk” investing in Microvision stock... especially with Oppenheimer lurking in the background.
Now, if it makes you feel any better, the Microvision story hasn’t changed... it still remains the opportunity of a lifetime. Here’s why...
• Virtually everything that needs validation has been validated and is ready to go. World’s first laser pico projector SHOWwx is in production─ even if in small quantities and some big name OEM customers have placed orders. Microvision has some big name partners that feel the laser PicoP technology and its future potential is worth their time, effort and investment to further the cause.
• The main issue currently is the green laser supply. But that will change soon... as Osram goes on-line with cheaper and simpler to manufacture SHG green laser. By mid 2010, the green laser production quantities will not be an issue and in all probability Corning will be out with its G-2000 enhanced green lasers with a time line for ramp-up to production.
After reading the Oppenheimer report, I went into the bathroom to look at my face in the mirror... just to make sure it turned red with anger and not turning blue from a heart attack. After counting to fifty and running some facts and figure in my head, I remembered that I had made a mental note to read top of page 7 again.
And that’s exactly what I did...
On top of page 7 in the Oppenheimer Report it says...
“We take these estimates with a hefty pinch of salt, knowing that any prediction about the long-term growth trajectory of a newly emerging technology involves a colossal margin of error. That being said, the 2009 pico projector unit and growth figures provide a couple of simple but encouraging insights into the pico projector market: First, that it is already sizable and is becoming more sizeable (with retail sales approaching $43 million), and second, that it is growing very fast.”
In hindsight, I wish I had paid more attention to this very paragraph and read rest of the report for entertainment purpose only and not get all worked-up and almost get a heart attack.
I don’t necessarily agree with many of their assumptions, estimates and projections; and I fully intend on discussing them in my blog. Oppenheimer analysts clearly admit the colossal margin of error in their estimates and projections... and therefore their so called facts and figures are subject to not only interpretation... but also have a monumental margin of error.
There two observations that I would make from reading these comments about “colossal margin of error” from the Oppenheimer Report...
• Oppenheimer analysts seem to be taking a dig at Alex Tokman, Microvision CEO, and also trying to send a message by publishing such deflated projections since Alex avoided discussing the quantities of SHOWwx in any detail during the 3rd Qtr conference call. These analysts contradict and ignore AT in a couple of areas... like the initial embedded pico display engine quantities runs to be in the 1M to 5M range, guidance on profitability to come 2 Qtrs. after embedded picop launch, and embedded picop launch to come 9 to 12 months after SHOWwx launch.
Many analysts will take a very conservative posture when initiating coverage on a small cap company like Microvision. This approach gives them time to get comfortable with the management; learn the business and market opportunity; and save some ammunition for future upgrades when the next catalyst comes along. This strategy keeps them gainfully employed and in such a scenario, when they do upgrade, it will be more meaningful.
• I also think this blurb regarding Oppenheimer analyst projections from the report is very telling...
"We take these estimates with a hefty pinch of salt, knowing that any prediction about the long-term growth trajectory of a newly emerging technology involves a colossal margin of error.”
Don’t you find it interesting; the analyst statement about “colossal margin of error?”
To me it looks like they are saying...
“Take our projections with a pinch of salt because our estimates could be off by a "colossal" margin.”
Yep, you are right... I said with a smile.
Oppenheimer Makes Mockery of Companies in the Pico Projection Market:
There are may be 50 to 100 companies involved in the pico projection market. These companies have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in capital expenditures, R&D and operating costs based on their own estimates and projections over the last few years.
In the Oppenheimer Report, the estimates and projections for the picop market size and adoption rates are summarized in Exhibit 8: Summary Model. In the year 2016, they are projecting the entire SA market for 8.75 million units at $75 ASP each and the embedded market for 250 million units at $15 ASP each. I have no questions about the market size and Microvision’s market share numbers. What baffles me, however, are the unit price projections for high definition SHOWwx and embedded pico projectors... all the way from FY 2010 thru FY 2016. Projecting $75 ASP for a high definition SHOWwx and $15 ASP for a high definition embedded unit in FY 2016 is absurd... and reflects how ignorant and naive these two analysts at Oppenheimer really are.
Speak to any of the key players in the pico projection industry and you will find out first hand that these guys at Oppenheimer are pulling numbers from thin air and comparing the pico projection market [for pricing purposes] to the touch screen market for smartphones. In addition to the absurd ASP pricing model their projection methodology is also questioning the use case for embedded pico projector. By doing so, Oppenheimer is questioning the business case model of ALL the companies involved in pico projection business.
There are close to 100 companies in this space...
• MEMS mirror, DLP and LcoS panel makers
• LED and Laser light makers
• ASIC and other semiconductor makers
• Makers of beam combiners, lens makers, light engine makers etc.
How would you rate the probability that ALL these companies are wrong with their estimates and made their investments in vacuum; and that Oppenheimer analysts are right?
Not right!!!
But don’t get me wrong, we will see a lot of these companies go away in the next 2-3 years as the market will most likely consolidate... with leaders jostling for top position.
Oppenheimer Report is Grossly Wrong in their Estimates and Projection for ASPs:
First, I want you to do a side-by-side image comparison – SHOWwx vs. the Competition
That is one thing so far, what’s been missing is the side-by-side comparison of SHOWwx with what the competition has to offer?
Well, here it is finally... and ironically the source is Oppenheimer from their analyst report on Microvision...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
When I looked at the image size and quality, my first reaction was...
• Pico projector from 3M, using LcoS technology, aroused the feelings that you would have towards a “sick dog” that needs to be put to sleep and put out of its misery. Half baked product like that gives bad name to pico projection technology. 3M is a multi-billion dollar company and I expected somewhat higher quality watermark than what you see. Rushing a product to the market before it’s time is not only bad judgment but poor marketing strategy... end of story.
• Pico projector from TI, using DLP technology, is decent and would be acceptable image quality for the right price. If TI/DLP had no competition from Microvision’s SHOWwx, then they would do just fine... like a dog that could hunt. There would still be issues of long throw ratio, limited image size, low resolution and need to re-focus every time there was a change in Image size or projector location.
• Pico projector from Microvision, using laser MEMS scanning technology, speaks for itself. It needs no words and all I’m going to say: “A picture speaks a thousand words”. To quote what Oppenheimer said in their report...
“The PicoP image has better color rendering; doesn’t require focusing; and is larger, sharper, and more uniform from center to edge.”
Microvision’s laser Pico projection technology is far superior to others out there, and has a bright future; once the green laser bottleneck issue is behind us.
When you look at the 3M/LCoS and TI/DLP pico projector images, you have to wonder that they do need a strong OEM champion for their technology. Without one, they may be left out as the stranded puppy that no one wants to own.
One the other hand, SHOWwx image size and quality, coming from such a tiny projector, arouses the sense of awe and will attract many OEMs that would want to be champions alongside of Microvision.
It’s not just about technology; it’s about what technology would eventually do for consumers... people like you and me. If Microvision SHOWwx technology arouses the sense of awe to-day, just wait another year and you will be delighted with the HD resolution of the image and the brightness of the light source.
While Microvision is all tangled-up with green laser supply issues, the two competitors can, and will, hog the feed at the trough. However, their party may not last too long... because sooner or later, the green lasers will be plentiful; and Microvision hound dog will have its muzzle removed and let go to hunt, to bully and to claim its rightful place at the head of the trough.
Now let’s talk about Oppenheimer estimates and projections for SHOWwx and embedded picop ASPs. In all honesty, if I was looking at just the 3M pico projection images, I would agree with Oppenheimer analysts wholeheartedly.
But, such is not the case.
Microvision’s laser based pico projector SHOWwx and the embedded display engine is in a class of its own.
If you were paying attention and listening to Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, you will remember him saying...
“Microvision Wants to be a Major Player in the Imaging Market Place”
He continued by saying...
“Laser steering projector is the bread and butter of Microvision for the foreseeable future and we are going to focus on the embedded PicoP to make the company profitable.” [Believed to be the words of Alex Tokman]
“Microvision is positioning itself thru patents and IP to be a major player in the image community. He (Alex) said: “Microvision is not going to be a small component provider that can be marginalized by bigger players.”
Alex sees the company as an INTEL type company. He is going to make the company a player in the image industry. That explains the “Image by PicoP” as the slogan chosen for the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
Please read my post on…
Yes Virginia: “It’s Intel Inside… but Image by PicoP.”
Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/yes-virginia-its-intel-inside-but-image.html
Alex mentioned a few things as to why he believes the product [PicoP display engine] is going to be successful…
• Uniqueness: nobody has lasers… nobody is doing what we are doing.
• Thin Form Factor: nobody has our size and nobody can do HD images without getting bigger.
• Longer Battery life: up to 2 hours currently vs. 45 minutes for the competition.
• Infinite focus: nobody else has it.
• Larger screen experience: from 12” to 150” diagonal under certain ambient light conditions.
• Superior small font readability: we are the only one that has 8 pt readable font.
• Uniformity of brightness: Images are uniformly bright from edge to edge, unlike some other competitors.
• No rainbow effect.
• Twice the color gamut (range) of NTSC
• WVGA resolution with sharper image detail... and future Pathway to high definition and brighter laser lights.
Currently, the competition comes from two major players, TI with its DLP technology and 3M with its LcoS technology. The competition sells its second generation Pico projector for about $295 and the quality of the image from their projectors looks like the picture on the left side. Microvision’s PicoP projector SHOWwx, on the other hand, projects its image better than the one on the right side.
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
If $295 was assumed as the average price for the baseline model and functionality [in-line with what the competition is asking], then Microvision could [and should] charge $495 for not only the better quality and vivid images but also some very interesting and differentiating features…
• Always-in-focus on any projected surface [projecting on curved surfaces or from an angel on flat surfaces]
• Short throw ratio 1:1 [bigger picture from short distance]
• Stunningly colorful, bright, vivid and detailed images [200% NTSC]
• Large images size [from 20” to 200” diagonal ]
• Higher image resolution (848×480) with HD pathway in future models
• Unmatched small font readability [size 8 font]
• Wide aspect ratio 16:9 [for wide screen experience]
• Fast refresh [60 Hz] to prevent motion blur when watching sports or action videos and movies
• High contrast ratio 5000:1
• Easy and simple plug and play. Single connector for TV-out [composite], VGA [RGB] and 3.5mm stereo jack─ audio pass through
• Low power and longer battery life. Movie capable battery life when fully charged. Charges via Micro-USB
• Extended warranty service… why not with all that MEMS reliability and exceeding drop test performance
• Ready for in-bed watching videos and movies on the ceiling
• All cables and leather case included
• Trade-in offer [worth $100 in exchange value] for any future PicoP projector purchase.
All these features are inherent in the laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx and the pico display engine; and they don’t really cost anything extra but they allow you to monetize the superior product functionality that Microvision offers.
There is no reason for Microvision to give it away for free…
Oppenheimer analyst estimates and projections assume pico projection business to model like the consumer electronics business model [much like the touch screen accessory for the smartphones] and that is grossly wrong. It’s not going to happen that way... no matter how Oppenheimer analysts qualify their half baked numbers by stating “Colossal Margin of Error” on page 7 of the report.
If someone wants to believe Oppenheimer analyst estimates and projections for ASPs, then let them...
Because buying SA at $75 or embedded at $15 is not going to happen... now or later.
If it does happen, then in all probability the buyer is buying some Chinese crap... only cheaper.
In closing, I highly recommend that you read Oppenheimer Report from page to page.
When you are done reading... file it under “Entertainment” and wait for the next upgrade... because that Report will be more meaning full than this half baked cookie dough.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Microvision: Side-by-side Image Comparison – SHOWwx vs. the Competition
So far, what’s been missing is the side-by-side comparison of SHOWwx with what the competition has to offer?
Well, here it is finally─ compliments of Oppenheimer from their analyst report on Microvision...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
When I looked at the image size and quality, my first reaction was...
• Pico projector from 3M, using LcoS technology, aroused the feelings that you would have towards a “sick dog” that needs to be put to sleep and put out of its misery. Half baked product like that gives bad name to pico projection technology. 3M is a multi-billion dollar company and I expected somewhat higher quality watermark than what you see. Rushing a product to the market before it’s time is not only bad judgment but poor marketing strategy... end of story.
• Pico projector from TI, using DLP technology, is decent and would be acceptable image quality for the right price. If TI/DLP had no competition from Microvision’s SHOWwx, then they would do just fine... like a dog that could hunt. There would still be issues of long throw ratio, limited image size, low resolution and need to re-focus every time there was a change in Image size or projector location.
• Pico projector from Microvision, using laser MEMS scanning technology, speaks for itself. It needs no words and all I’m going to say: “A picture speaks a thousand words”. To quote what Oppenheimer said in their analyst report...
“The PicoP image has better color rendering; doesn’t require focusing; and is larger, sharper, and more uniform from center to edge.”
Microvision’s laser Pico projection technology is far superior to others out there, and has a bright future; once the green laser bottleneck issue is behind us.
When you look at the 3M/LCoS and TI/DLP pico projector images, you have to wonder that they do need a strong OEM champion for their technology. Without one, they may be left out as the puppy no one wants to own. One the other hand, SHOWwx image size and quality, coming from such a tiny projector, arouses the sense of awe and will attract many OEMs that would want to be champions alongside of Microvision.
It’s not just about technology; it’s about what technology would eventually do for consumers... people like you and me.
While Microvision is all tangled-up with green laser supply issues, the two competitors can, and will, hog the feed at the trough. However, their party may not last too long... because sooner or later, the green lasers will be plentiful; and Microvision hound dog will have its muzzle removed and let go to hunt, to bully and to claim its rightful place at the head of the trough.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Well, here it is finally─ compliments of Oppenheimer from their analyst report on Microvision...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
When I looked at the image size and quality, my first reaction was...
• Pico projector from 3M, using LcoS technology, aroused the feelings that you would have towards a “sick dog” that needs to be put to sleep and put out of its misery. Half baked product like that gives bad name to pico projection technology. 3M is a multi-billion dollar company and I expected somewhat higher quality watermark than what you see. Rushing a product to the market before it’s time is not only bad judgment but poor marketing strategy... end of story.
• Pico projector from TI, using DLP technology, is decent and would be acceptable image quality for the right price. If TI/DLP had no competition from Microvision’s SHOWwx, then they would do just fine... like a dog that could hunt. There would still be issues of long throw ratio, limited image size, low resolution and need to re-focus every time there was a change in Image size or projector location.
• Pico projector from Microvision, using laser MEMS scanning technology, speaks for itself. It needs no words and all I’m going to say: “A picture speaks a thousand words”. To quote what Oppenheimer said in their analyst report...
“The PicoP image has better color rendering; doesn’t require focusing; and is larger, sharper, and more uniform from center to edge.”
Microvision’s laser Pico projection technology is far superior to others out there, and has a bright future; once the green laser bottleneck issue is behind us.
When you look at the 3M/LCoS and TI/DLP pico projector images, you have to wonder that they do need a strong OEM champion for their technology. Without one, they may be left out as the puppy no one wants to own. One the other hand, SHOWwx image size and quality, coming from such a tiny projector, arouses the sense of awe and will attract many OEMs that would want to be champions alongside of Microvision.
It’s not just about technology; it’s about what technology would eventually do for consumers... people like you and me.
While Microvision is all tangled-up with green laser supply issues, the two competitors can, and will, hog the feed at the trough. However, their party may not last too long... because sooner or later, the green lasers will be plentiful; and Microvision hound dog will have its muzzle removed and let go to hunt, to bully and to claim its rightful place at the head of the trough.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Microvision: Partners with Intel to Showcase Advances in PC Gaming Technology (Part 4)
Looks like Ben Averch is back in Seattle after spending the last week in Edmonton, the second coldest city on Earth (Siberia being the first).
This is what he had to say...
“It was a thrill to be able to demonstrate our new gaming technology for the very first time to hundreds of gamers as well as many just plain curious folks. Two MVIS reps (myself and weapon master Andrew Rosen) + about 800 demos over 3 days = exhaustion! But, I’m happy to say that the response we got was tremendous, the Intel folks were terrific, and a lot of fun was had by all (as you can see from the picture!).”
Here’s the link to the picture in question...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1291#respond
What’s more ineresting are the reviews...
Microvision’s Super Gun
December 15, 2009 by Adam R.
This past Friday it was my job to play press monkey for the Intel sponsored ESL North American Championship, and ironically, the most exciting story didn’t seem to be the gaming itself, but the tech demo from Microvision which just so happened to be making it’s worldwide debut to the public.
What Microvision specializes in, firstly, is portable video projectors. What separates Microvision’s own SHOW WX against other models, is that it uses laser lights, allowing for the most vivid colour and contrast available thus far in the pico projector market. The SHOW WX projects in a widescreen format with a resolution of 848×480 with a 60Hz refresh rate. While it isn’t a perfect solution for replacing your home HD TV, it very well could be in the years to come.
A pico projector is exciting, especially if you happen to be a gadget nut, but the reason Microvision is causing a buzz in the tech market right now is because of their recent teamwork with Intel.
This is a gaming website, and as such, your first instinct should have been “How well does this play games?” Well, I can honestly tell you that it is nothing like you imagined. Because of the money and technology afforded to them by their partnership with Intel, Microvision is attempting to take PC gaming to the next level by possibly creating a platform to rival Microsoft’s own interactive gaming environment, with Project Natal.
Running on a superpowered Intel i7 PC, was Operation Flashpoint: Dragon Rising, developed and published by Codemasters. The interesting thing though, was that the demonstrator was not playing with a keyboard, nor a joypad. He was using a big, heavy gun, outfitted internally with accelerometers and other various do-dad’s one would expect to find in an iPod Touch or iPhone, plus one of their SHOW WX devices mounted where the targeting reticule would normally be positioned.
What the demo showed us was future-tech that Microvision and Intel are trying frantically to bring home to the consumer: the ultimate in gaming interactivity.
If you moved the gun left, your character could move his head left in the same fashion he would if controlled by a mouse or analog stick; the key difference being that the screen you were facing would also move, of course, because of the projector strapped on to it. So as your gun moves, so does the projection, as well as the camera angle/field of view in-game. While difficult to describe positively in written word, it isn’t as annoying as it sounds, and if anything, if several tweaks are made to the service, could easily be the most realistic way to play games from here on out.
What Microvision is trying to accomplish, is an entirely immersive experience. Through the use of, and the PR person stressed, superior software to what is available in Nintendo Wii and in the iPhone, gamers will be able to command total control via a highly precise natural evolution in hardware. While the iPhone’s accelerometer software suffers from a slow processor and a cramped living compartment, Microvision’s prototype hardware is concealed in a large, life-sized assault rifle powered by what you would find in your average high-end gaming computer. That is a large boost of power compared to what either of the nearest competitors are able to do so far.
You’ll want to play games standing up. Crouching and jumping were, as of this demo, mapped to buttons, but ideally, you’d assume Microvision would want to map them to motions involved with the accelerometers. You duck in real life, the character you’re playing as does the same thing.
For walking back and fourth there were two highly responsive buttons placed below the rifle’s barrel. While this placement seemed satisfactory, the rep admitted that they were trying to improve this attribute somehow.
Official Microvision Video [Link]
The device was currently wired to the PC running the game, but it was suggested that wireless was going to be a feature added later.
For all intents and purposes, I think the PC gaming world has every right to be excited about this device and the future capabilities it may bring to the fold. While obviously marketed to a hardcore and niche market, let’s face it; that is exactly what PC gaming is all about these days. I am excited about what Project Natal might end up bringing to the table for first person shooters, but honestly, this tech demo left me drooling.
http://www.criticalgamer.co.uk/2009/12/15/microvisions-super-gun/
What got me excited was the refrence to Microsoft “Project Natel” in the comments made by the Critical Gamer’s Review...
“…Microvision is attempting to take PC gaming to the next level by possibly creating a platform to rival Microsoft’s own interactive gaming environment, with Project Natal.”
My first reaction was: “Why create a platform to rival Microsoft... join them to make Project Natal a true hands free control and interactivity reality by incorporating the laser scanner/projection features of the Microvision’s PicoP display engine.”
Here’s some information on Project Natel...
Project Natal is the code name for a "controller-free gaming and entertainment experience" by Microsoft for the Xbox 360 video game platform. Based on an add-on periheral for the Xbox 360 console, Project Natal enables users to control and interact with the Xbox 360 without the need to touch a game controller through a natural user interface using gestures, spoken commands or presented objects and images. The project is aimed at broadening the Xbox 360's audience beyond its typically harcore base. Project Natal was first announced on June 1, 2009. Microsoft said that over a thousand software development kits began shipping to game developers that same day.
Though Microsoft has not officially announced any price or release date projections for Project Natal, it is expected to be released in late 2010. Project Natal will reportedly also serve as the basis for a "new" Xbox 360.
In closing I must re-state the comments from Critical Gamer’s review...
“For all intents and purposes, I think the PC gaming world has every right to be excited about this device and the future capabilities it may bring to the fold. While obviously marketed to a hardcore and niche market, let’s face it; that is exactly what PC gaming is all about these days. I am excited about what Project Natal might end up bringing to the table for first person shooters, but honestly, this tech demo left me drooling.”
Here’s the napkin bud... drooling not allowed while reading this post!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
This is what he had to say...
“It was a thrill to be able to demonstrate our new gaming technology for the very first time to hundreds of gamers as well as many just plain curious folks. Two MVIS reps (myself and weapon master Andrew Rosen) + about 800 demos over 3 days = exhaustion! But, I’m happy to say that the response we got was tremendous, the Intel folks were terrific, and a lot of fun was had by all (as you can see from the picture!).”
Here’s the link to the picture in question...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1291#respond
What’s more ineresting are the reviews...
Microvision’s Super Gun
December 15, 2009 by Adam R.
This past Friday it was my job to play press monkey for the Intel sponsored ESL North American Championship, and ironically, the most exciting story didn’t seem to be the gaming itself, but the tech demo from Microvision which just so happened to be making it’s worldwide debut to the public.
What Microvision specializes in, firstly, is portable video projectors. What separates Microvision’s own SHOW WX against other models, is that it uses laser lights, allowing for the most vivid colour and contrast available thus far in the pico projector market. The SHOW WX projects in a widescreen format with a resolution of 848×480 with a 60Hz refresh rate. While it isn’t a perfect solution for replacing your home HD TV, it very well could be in the years to come.
A pico projector is exciting, especially if you happen to be a gadget nut, but the reason Microvision is causing a buzz in the tech market right now is because of their recent teamwork with Intel.
This is a gaming website, and as such, your first instinct should have been “How well does this play games?” Well, I can honestly tell you that it is nothing like you imagined. Because of the money and technology afforded to them by their partnership with Intel, Microvision is attempting to take PC gaming to the next level by possibly creating a platform to rival Microsoft’s own interactive gaming environment, with Project Natal.
Running on a superpowered Intel i7 PC, was Operation Flashpoint: Dragon Rising, developed and published by Codemasters. The interesting thing though, was that the demonstrator was not playing with a keyboard, nor a joypad. He was using a big, heavy gun, outfitted internally with accelerometers and other various do-dad’s one would expect to find in an iPod Touch or iPhone, plus one of their SHOW WX devices mounted where the targeting reticule would normally be positioned.
What the demo showed us was future-tech that Microvision and Intel are trying frantically to bring home to the consumer: the ultimate in gaming interactivity.
If you moved the gun left, your character could move his head left in the same fashion he would if controlled by a mouse or analog stick; the key difference being that the screen you were facing would also move, of course, because of the projector strapped on to it. So as your gun moves, so does the projection, as well as the camera angle/field of view in-game. While difficult to describe positively in written word, it isn’t as annoying as it sounds, and if anything, if several tweaks are made to the service, could easily be the most realistic way to play games from here on out.
What Microvision is trying to accomplish, is an entirely immersive experience. Through the use of, and the PR person stressed, superior software to what is available in Nintendo Wii and in the iPhone, gamers will be able to command total control via a highly precise natural evolution in hardware. While the iPhone’s accelerometer software suffers from a slow processor and a cramped living compartment, Microvision’s prototype hardware is concealed in a large, life-sized assault rifle powered by what you would find in your average high-end gaming computer. That is a large boost of power compared to what either of the nearest competitors are able to do so far.
You’ll want to play games standing up. Crouching and jumping were, as of this demo, mapped to buttons, but ideally, you’d assume Microvision would want to map them to motions involved with the accelerometers. You duck in real life, the character you’re playing as does the same thing.
For walking back and fourth there were two highly responsive buttons placed below the rifle’s barrel. While this placement seemed satisfactory, the rep admitted that they were trying to improve this attribute somehow.
Official Microvision Video [Link]
The device was currently wired to the PC running the game, but it was suggested that wireless was going to be a feature added later.
For all intents and purposes, I think the PC gaming world has every right to be excited about this device and the future capabilities it may bring to the fold. While obviously marketed to a hardcore and niche market, let’s face it; that is exactly what PC gaming is all about these days. I am excited about what Project Natal might end up bringing to the table for first person shooters, but honestly, this tech demo left me drooling.
*****
Here’s the link to Critical Gamer’s review...http://www.criticalgamer.co.uk/2009/12/15/microvisions-super-gun/
What got me excited was the refrence to Microsoft “Project Natel” in the comments made by the Critical Gamer’s Review...
“…Microvision is attempting to take PC gaming to the next level by possibly creating a platform to rival Microsoft’s own interactive gaming environment, with Project Natal.”
My first reaction was: “Why create a platform to rival Microsoft... join them to make Project Natal a true hands free control and interactivity reality by incorporating the laser scanner/projection features of the Microvision’s PicoP display engine.”
Here’s some information on Project Natel...
Project Natal is the code name for a "controller-free gaming and entertainment experience" by Microsoft for the Xbox 360 video game platform. Based on an add-on periheral for the Xbox 360 console, Project Natal enables users to control and interact with the Xbox 360 without the need to touch a game controller through a natural user interface using gestures, spoken commands or presented objects and images. The project is aimed at broadening the Xbox 360's audience beyond its typically harcore base. Project Natal was first announced on June 1, 2009. Microsoft said that over a thousand software development kits began shipping to game developers that same day.
Though Microsoft has not officially announced any price or release date projections for Project Natal, it is expected to be released in late 2010. Project Natal will reportedly also serve as the basis for a "new" Xbox 360.
In closing I must re-state the comments from Critical Gamer’s review...
“For all intents and purposes, I think the PC gaming world has every right to be excited about this device and the future capabilities it may bring to the fold. While obviously marketed to a hardcore and niche market, let’s face it; that is exactly what PC gaming is all about these days. I am excited about what Project Natal might end up bringing to the table for first person shooters, but honestly, this tech demo left me drooling.”
Here’s the napkin bud... drooling not allowed while reading this post!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Monday, December 14, 2009
Microvision: Partners with Intel to Showcase Advances in PC Gaming Technology (Part 3)
This is what Ben Averch of Microvision said in his post at Microvision blog The Displayland....
“As you can see from the video above, Microvision has designed a unique handheld first-person shooter projection game controller prototype that uses the PicoP display engine to project images on any surface. Using the infinite focus capability of the PicoP display engine, combined with a motion sensing module, it’s now possible to play video games on multiple surfaces, all while tracking your character’s point of view in 3D space.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1277#more-1277
First of all, it is important to note that the worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion and Microvision is addressing, to start with, the first-person shooter game sub-genre.
There are several video game genres (vague categories) based on their gameplay interaction rather than visual or narrative differences. A video game genre is defined by a set of gameplay challenges. They are classified independent of their setting or game-world content. For example, an action game is still an action game, regardless of whether it takes place in a fantasy world or outer space.
Here’s a list of video game genres...
1. Action Games
2. Action-adventure Games
3. Aventure Games
4. Role-playing Games
5. Simulation Games
6. Sports Games
7. Strategy Games
8. 3D Interactive Projection Games?????
A shooter game [an Action Game genre] focuses primarily on combat involving projectile weapons, such as guns and missiles. They can be divided into first-person and third-person shooters, depending on the camera perspective.
First-person shooter (FPS) is a video game genre which centers the gameplay around gun - and projectile weapon- based combat through the first person persoective; i.e., the player experiences the action through the eyes of a protagonist [the player]. Generally speaking, the first-person shooter shares common traits with other shooter games, which in turn fall under the heading Action Games.
From the Action Game genre's inception, advanced 3D or pseudo-3D graphics elements have challenged hardware development. But that may change soon, with the arrival of always-in-focus pico “projection game controller” from Microvision.
Ben goes-on further to say...
“At Intel Extreme Masters, we’ll be putting this prototype projection game controller into the hands of some of the world’s best gamers, playing the ultra-realistic combat simulation PC game “Operation Flashpoint: Dragon Rising”. We think the PicoP gaming application is an exciting new way to take first-person shooter games to the next level of interactivity and immersion, and it will be great to hear first hand what championship-level gamers think about it.”
Like most shooter games, first person shooters involve an avatar [alter ego], one or more ranged weapon, and a varying number of enemies. Because they take place in a 3D environment, these games tend to be somewhat more realistic than 2D shooter games, and have more accurate representations of gravity, lighting, sound and collisions. First person shooters played on personal computers are most often controlled with a combination of a keyboard and mouse. This system is often considered superior to that found in console games, which frequently use two analog sticks, one used for running and sidestepping, the other for looking and aiming. It is common to display the character's hands and weaponry in the main view, with a head up disply showing health, ammunition and location details. Often, it is possible to overlay a map of the surrounding area.
But all that is about to change; with the introduction of Microvision’s projection game controller...
Here’s the news...
Microvision Demo’s Projection Game Controller
http://www.techgadgets.in/gaming/2009/12/microvision-demos-projection-game-controller/
[Link may not work]
At the end of the article, it says...
“The projector game controller may unleash a new genre of gaming”
Keep an eye on the history books; Microvision is on its way to write the next few pages of the future. Here’s the link to The History of Computer Games...
http://www.statemaster.com/encyclopedia/History-of-computer-games#The_2000s
In closing, I must re-state...
“Microvision’s weapon-styled projection game controller will offer gamers an insight of a new technology that projects a follow-you-anywhere video image upto 200-inch via a handheld game controller.”
Interestingly, you don’t need green lasers to produce the first generation of “projection game controllers”.
Ready, set, go... let the games begin!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
“As you can see from the video above, Microvision has designed a unique handheld first-person shooter projection game controller prototype that uses the PicoP display engine to project images on any surface. Using the infinite focus capability of the PicoP display engine, combined with a motion sensing module, it’s now possible to play video games on multiple surfaces, all while tracking your character’s point of view in 3D space.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1277#more-1277
First of all, it is important to note that the worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion and Microvision is addressing, to start with, the first-person shooter game sub-genre.
There are several video game genres (vague categories) based on their gameplay interaction rather than visual or narrative differences. A video game genre is defined by a set of gameplay challenges. They are classified independent of their setting or game-world content. For example, an action game is still an action game, regardless of whether it takes place in a fantasy world or outer space.
Here’s a list of video game genres...
1. Action Games
2. Action-adventure Games
3. Aventure Games
4. Role-playing Games
5. Simulation Games
6. Sports Games
7. Strategy Games
8. 3D Interactive Projection Games?????
A shooter game [an Action Game genre] focuses primarily on combat involving projectile weapons, such as guns and missiles. They can be divided into first-person and third-person shooters, depending on the camera perspective.
First-person shooter (FPS) is a video game genre which centers the gameplay around gun - and projectile weapon- based combat through the first person persoective; i.e., the player experiences the action through the eyes of a protagonist [the player]. Generally speaking, the first-person shooter shares common traits with other shooter games, which in turn fall under the heading Action Games.
From the Action Game genre's inception, advanced 3D or pseudo-3D graphics elements have challenged hardware development. But that may change soon, with the arrival of always-in-focus pico “projection game controller” from Microvision.
Ben goes-on further to say...
“At Intel Extreme Masters, we’ll be putting this prototype projection game controller into the hands of some of the world’s best gamers, playing the ultra-realistic combat simulation PC game “Operation Flashpoint: Dragon Rising”. We think the PicoP gaming application is an exciting new way to take first-person shooter games to the next level of interactivity and immersion, and it will be great to hear first hand what championship-level gamers think about it.”
Like most shooter games, first person shooters involve an avatar [alter ego], one or more ranged weapon, and a varying number of enemies. Because they take place in a 3D environment, these games tend to be somewhat more realistic than 2D shooter games, and have more accurate representations of gravity, lighting, sound and collisions. First person shooters played on personal computers are most often controlled with a combination of a keyboard and mouse. This system is often considered superior to that found in console games, which frequently use two analog sticks, one used for running and sidestepping, the other for looking and aiming. It is common to display the character's hands and weaponry in the main view, with a head up disply showing health, ammunition and location details. Often, it is possible to overlay a map of the surrounding area.
But all that is about to change; with the introduction of Microvision’s projection game controller...
Here’s the news...
Microvision Demo’s Projection Game Controller
http://www.techgadgets.in/gaming/2009/12/microvision-demos-projection-game-controller/
[Link may not work]
At the end of the article, it says...
“The projector game controller may unleash a new genre of gaming”
Keep an eye on the history books; Microvision is on its way to write the next few pages of the future. Here’s the link to The History of Computer Games...
http://www.statemaster.com/encyclopedia/History-of-computer-games#The_2000s
In closing, I must re-state...
“Microvision’s weapon-styled projection game controller will offer gamers an insight of a new technology that projects a follow-you-anywhere video image upto 200-inch via a handheld game controller.”
Interestingly, you don’t need green lasers to produce the first generation of “projection game controllers”.
Ready, set, go... let the games begin!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Microvision: Partners with Intel to Showcase Advances in PC Gaming Technology (Part 2)
The worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion.
This weekend Intel is bringing competitive world-class video gaming to Edmonton, Canada. The North American Championship tournament is one of six world-class gaming tournaments under the Intel Extreme Masters banner.
Microvision will be there as partners with Intel to showcase advances in PC gaming technology. Here’s the post from Microvision blog The Displayground...
“For the next three days, Microvision will be showcasing some innovative new uses of the PicoP display engine for gaming applications at the Intel® Extreme Masters North American Championships, taking place at the enormous West Edmonton Mall. Intel Extreme Masters is classed as the biggest gaming tournament worldwide, with six events around the globe and a total prize pool of $530,000. Our press release issued earlier today is HERE.
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
“As you can see from the video above, Microvision has designed a unique handheld first-person shooter projection game controller prototype that uses the PicoP display engine to project images on any surface. Using the infinite focus capability of the PicoP display engine, combined with a motion sensing module, it’s now possible to play video games on multiple surfaces, all while tracking your character’s point of view in 3D space.”
Here's the picture of the non-firing replica...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bgrier/4177562516/sizes/l/
Well, it’s Saturday afternoon and the reviews are starting to roll in...
Here’s the first post from “Future Shop” Tech blog with interesting comments...
“In addition to the pro competition, Intel has also brought a few cutting edge games and technologies. So, between matches, be sure to checkout demo stations packed with the latest Intel technology...
“But, likely one of the coolest pieces of kit I saw today, the first day it was available to the general public for hands-on evaluation, was the PicoP by Microvision -- a multi-axis free-form game controller/uber-tiny projector hybrid device that could really revolutionize your gaming experience.”
“I had the opportunity to try a couple of games (Aladdin & Operation Flashpoint) with custom controllers, in a darkened room with white walls. The handheld controller was appropriate to the game being demoed (a Sega Dreamcast size handheld unit for Aladdin, a very cool replica weapon for Operation Flashpoint)."
"You point the controller at the wall, and the wall becomes your viewing screen. Move the controller (with the embedded super-tiny projector), the screen *and your in game perspective or character* moves too..synchronized to the controller."
In my case, when I panned my gun to the left, it was as if I was rotating my character to the left. Tilt up, and I looked up. And the screen position on the wall moved too, because it was attached to the gun-controller.
I know my description sounds awkward, but this display tech is really neat. So get your butt into some long-johns, brave the holiday shopping crowds and check the PicoP out -- tell them Brad sent you.
I'll have more on the PicoP in the future, but it really has the potential to liberate your gaming experience.
The Intel Extreme Masters Tour runs until Sunday. Expect some very hot gaming action as the best players in North America compete. If you're a gamer, this action is not to be missed.
And if you can't make it, feel free to check out my gallery
http://www.futureshopforums.ca/t5/Tech-Blog/Edmonton-gets-cool-toys-and-big-money-gaming-this-weekend/ba-p/185177
There will be more reviews, I’m sure.
So, stay tuned and enjoy rest of the day.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
This weekend Intel is bringing competitive world-class video gaming to Edmonton, Canada. The North American Championship tournament is one of six world-class gaming tournaments under the Intel Extreme Masters banner.
Microvision will be there as partners with Intel to showcase advances in PC gaming technology. Here’s the post from Microvision blog The Displayground...
“For the next three days, Microvision will be showcasing some innovative new uses of the PicoP display engine for gaming applications at the Intel® Extreme Masters North American Championships, taking place at the enormous West Edmonton Mall. Intel Extreme Masters is classed as the biggest gaming tournament worldwide, with six events around the globe and a total prize pool of $530,000. Our press release issued earlier today is HERE.
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
“As you can see from the video above, Microvision has designed a unique handheld first-person shooter projection game controller prototype that uses the PicoP display engine to project images on any surface. Using the infinite focus capability of the PicoP display engine, combined with a motion sensing module, it’s now possible to play video games on multiple surfaces, all while tracking your character’s point of view in 3D space.”
Here's the picture of the non-firing replica...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bgrier/4177562516/sizes/l/
Well, it’s Saturday afternoon and the reviews are starting to roll in...
Here’s the first post from “Future Shop” Tech blog with interesting comments...
“In addition to the pro competition, Intel has also brought a few cutting edge games and technologies. So, between matches, be sure to checkout demo stations packed with the latest Intel technology...
“But, likely one of the coolest pieces of kit I saw today, the first day it was available to the general public for hands-on evaluation, was the PicoP by Microvision -- a multi-axis free-form game controller/uber-tiny projector hybrid device that could really revolutionize your gaming experience.”
“I had the opportunity to try a couple of games (Aladdin & Operation Flashpoint) with custom controllers, in a darkened room with white walls. The handheld controller was appropriate to the game being demoed (a Sega Dreamcast size handheld unit for Aladdin, a very cool replica weapon for Operation Flashpoint)."
"You point the controller at the wall, and the wall becomes your viewing screen. Move the controller (with the embedded super-tiny projector), the screen *and your in game perspective or character* moves too..synchronized to the controller."
In my case, when I panned my gun to the left, it was as if I was rotating my character to the left. Tilt up, and I looked up. And the screen position on the wall moved too, because it was attached to the gun-controller.
I know my description sounds awkward, but this display tech is really neat. So get your butt into some long-johns, brave the holiday shopping crowds and check the PicoP out -- tell them Brad sent you.
I'll have more on the PicoP in the future, but it really has the potential to liberate your gaming experience.
The Intel Extreme Masters Tour runs until Sunday. Expect some very hot gaming action as the best players in North America compete. If you're a gamer, this action is not to be missed.
And if you can't make it, feel free to check out my gallery
*****
Here’s the link...http://www.futureshopforums.ca/t5/Tech-Blog/Edmonton-gets-cool-toys-and-big-money-gaming-this-weekend/ba-p/185177
There will be more reviews, I’m sure.
So, stay tuned and enjoy rest of the day.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Microvision: Partners with Intel to Showcase Advances in PC Gaming Technology
Here’s the highlight of the news from this morning...
“The game application takes advantage of our PicoP display engine’s infinite focus,” Brown says. “We believe that Microvision’s technology can be used to create a new level of realism and interactive freedom for gamers. As the worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion, we are very excited to partner with Intel to showcase this new advance in gaming technology to the world’s best gamers at Intel Extreme Masters.”
“Intel believes that radical innovations like Microvision’s laser projection engine will continue to drive the gaming industry forward,” said George Woo, Intel Corporation’s Marketing Manager of the Intel Extreme Masters. “We are pleased to demonstrate how Microvision’s technology and the Intel® Core™ i7 processor Extreme Edition can create a new way for gamers to become immersed in the game world.”
Here’s the full news and the link...
Microvision's PicoP Display Engine at Heart of Realistic Game Demo at Intel Extreme Masters Tournament
Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 9:01 am EST, Thursday December 10, 2009
EDMONTON, Alberta--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Players of first-person shooter computer games traditionally play while seated with a keyboard, mouse, and fixed monitor.
However, these hardcore gamers soon may be unleashed from their stationary position to enjoy a realistic virtual combat experience with life-sized video images, projected on walls, ceilings and floors, all from a weapon-styled projection game controller they hold in their hands.
Among the first consumers to try a prototype of such a product will be the players and spectators attending the Intel® Extreme Masters PC gaming tournament in Edmonton, Alberta on Friday, Dec. 11 through Sunday, Dec. 13. Intel Corp., sponsor of the event, has invited laser display technology supplier Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS - News), of Redmond, Wash., to give gamers a first look at a new technology that projects a follow-you-anywhere video image – up to 200 inches across – from a handheld game controller.
Game players at the tourney who give the prototype a spin will experience “an immersive, 360-degree feel,” promises Ian Brown, Microvision’s Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “The company’s laser projection engine can show a distortion-free image on nearly any flat or curved surface. Consequently, the game goes along with the gamer and reflects the character’s position in three-dimensional space.”
It’s no coincidence that Microvision also happens to be a main mover behind the emerging consumer-electronics product category known as “pico projectors.” In September, the company started shipping its first SHOWWX™ laser pico projectors – based on its PicoP® display engine – to customers in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. But the game tournament demo in Canada will show off the versatility of Microvision’s PicoP display engine beyond the streaming movies, music videos, camera-phone snapshots and business presentations which are the media most likely to be shown with pico projectors.
“The game application takes advantage of our PicoP display engine’s infinite focus,” Brown says. “We believe that Microvision’s technology can be used to create a new level of realism and interactive freedom for gamers. As the worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion, we are very excited to partner with Intel to showcase this new advance in gaming technology to the world’s best gamers at Intel Extreme Masters.”
“Intel believes that radical innovations like Microvision’s laser projection engine will continue to drive the gaming industry forward,” said George Woo, Intel Corporation’s Marketing Manager of the Intel Extreme Masters. “We are pleased to demonstrate how Microvision’s technology and the Intel® Core™ i7 processor Extreme Edition can create a new way for gamers to become immersed in the game world.”
Continues...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvisions-PicoP-Display-bw-4103685549.html?x=0&.v=1
Intel Extreme Masters Tournament is sponsored by Intel as part of their marketing campaign and are held around the world.
Nine Live Events on Three Continents
Whether you’re a pro gamer or you just want to see top clans in action, the best─ and often the only ─ opportunity to do so is to visit one of the growing numbers of competitive games events around the world. Intel sponsors top clans and events to help raise the bar of competitive gaming.
Here’s the link to Intel Events...
http://game-on.intel.com/eng/events/masters/default.aspx
Long before blogs were around, PC gamers had developed their own 'community' and for those of you who enjoy PC gaming - you can relate to this experience!
I’m sure most of you started your PC gaming experience way back in the early '80s... using an old Apple ][+ with 48k of RAM, and perhaps still remember freaking out your parents when you started upgrading by pulling chips and installing joysticks, adding a memory board (woo-hoo up to 64k!), and writing some BASIC programs making all sorts of noises and graphics on the computer.
After getting frustrated with clunky 300 baud modem you upgraded to a 1200 baud modem which really opened things up into a whole different realm... Bulletin Board Systems (BBS)! Computer users were on these systems - communicating, sharing, distributing and overall - forming an online community! Remember Compuserve? Prodigy? AOL? So what has changed?
First and foremost, your "gaming rig" is now MUCH more potent at delivering the experience─ via multi-core Intel Core 2 Quad Processor, Intel Solid-State Harddrive, awesome graphics card, and a large 24-inch monitor to present it all to you over a fast broadband Internet connection.
Now you can take you gaming experience several notches up with a PicoP projector from Microvision and your gaming experience will never be the same...
“These hardcore gamers soon may be unleashed from their stationary position to enjoy a realistic virtual combat experience with life-sized video images, projected on walls, ceilings and floors, all from a weapon-styled projection game controller they hold in their hands.”
“Game players at the tourney who give the prototype a spin will experience “an immersive, 360-degree feel,” promises Ian Brown, Microvision’s Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “The company’s laser projection engine can show a distortion-free image on nearly any flat or curved surface. Consequently, the game goes along with the gamer and reflects the character’s position in three-dimensional space.”
The worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion.
Did I say that before?
Yep, I just wanted to make sure we register that clearly, because that is an additional market, beyond pico projection, that Microvision is addressing in collaboration with Intel... the biggest PC gamer in the world.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
“The game application takes advantage of our PicoP display engine’s infinite focus,” Brown says. “We believe that Microvision’s technology can be used to create a new level of realism and interactive freedom for gamers. As the worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion, we are very excited to partner with Intel to showcase this new advance in gaming technology to the world’s best gamers at Intel Extreme Masters.”
“Intel believes that radical innovations like Microvision’s laser projection engine will continue to drive the gaming industry forward,” said George Woo, Intel Corporation’s Marketing Manager of the Intel Extreme Masters. “We are pleased to demonstrate how Microvision’s technology and the Intel® Core™ i7 processor Extreme Edition can create a new way for gamers to become immersed in the game world.”
Here’s the full news and the link...
Microvision's PicoP Display Engine at Heart of Realistic Game Demo at Intel Extreme Masters Tournament
Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 9:01 am EST, Thursday December 10, 2009
EDMONTON, Alberta--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Players of first-person shooter computer games traditionally play while seated with a keyboard, mouse, and fixed monitor.
However, these hardcore gamers soon may be unleashed from their stationary position to enjoy a realistic virtual combat experience with life-sized video images, projected on walls, ceilings and floors, all from a weapon-styled projection game controller they hold in their hands.
Among the first consumers to try a prototype of such a product will be the players and spectators attending the Intel® Extreme Masters PC gaming tournament in Edmonton, Alberta on Friday, Dec. 11 through Sunday, Dec. 13. Intel Corp., sponsor of the event, has invited laser display technology supplier Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS - News), of Redmond, Wash., to give gamers a first look at a new technology that projects a follow-you-anywhere video image – up to 200 inches across – from a handheld game controller.
Game players at the tourney who give the prototype a spin will experience “an immersive, 360-degree feel,” promises Ian Brown, Microvision’s Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “The company’s laser projection engine can show a distortion-free image on nearly any flat or curved surface. Consequently, the game goes along with the gamer and reflects the character’s position in three-dimensional space.”
It’s no coincidence that Microvision also happens to be a main mover behind the emerging consumer-electronics product category known as “pico projectors.” In September, the company started shipping its first SHOWWX™ laser pico projectors – based on its PicoP® display engine – to customers in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. But the game tournament demo in Canada will show off the versatility of Microvision’s PicoP display engine beyond the streaming movies, music videos, camera-phone snapshots and business presentations which are the media most likely to be shown with pico projectors.
“The game application takes advantage of our PicoP display engine’s infinite focus,” Brown says. “We believe that Microvision’s technology can be used to create a new level of realism and interactive freedom for gamers. As the worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion, we are very excited to partner with Intel to showcase this new advance in gaming technology to the world’s best gamers at Intel Extreme Masters.”
“Intel believes that radical innovations like Microvision’s laser projection engine will continue to drive the gaming industry forward,” said George Woo, Intel Corporation’s Marketing Manager of the Intel Extreme Masters. “We are pleased to demonstrate how Microvision’s technology and the Intel® Core™ i7 processor Extreme Edition can create a new way for gamers to become immersed in the game world.”
Continues...
*****
Here’s the link...http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvisions-PicoP-Display-bw-4103685549.html?x=0&.v=1
Intel Extreme Masters Tournament is sponsored by Intel as part of their marketing campaign and are held around the world.
Nine Live Events on Three Continents
Whether you’re a pro gamer or you just want to see top clans in action, the best─ and often the only ─ opportunity to do so is to visit one of the growing numbers of competitive games events around the world. Intel sponsors top clans and events to help raise the bar of competitive gaming.
Here’s the link to Intel Events...
http://game-on.intel.com/eng/events/masters/default.aspx
Long before blogs were around, PC gamers had developed their own 'community' and for those of you who enjoy PC gaming - you can relate to this experience!
I’m sure most of you started your PC gaming experience way back in the early '80s... using an old Apple ][+ with 48k of RAM, and perhaps still remember freaking out your parents when you started upgrading by pulling chips and installing joysticks, adding a memory board (woo-hoo up to 64k!), and writing some BASIC programs making all sorts of noises and graphics on the computer.
After getting frustrated with clunky 300 baud modem you upgraded to a 1200 baud modem which really opened things up into a whole different realm... Bulletin Board Systems (BBS)! Computer users were on these systems - communicating, sharing, distributing and overall - forming an online community! Remember Compuserve? Prodigy? AOL? So what has changed?
First and foremost, your "gaming rig" is now MUCH more potent at delivering the experience─ via multi-core Intel Core 2 Quad Processor, Intel Solid-State Harddrive, awesome graphics card, and a large 24-inch monitor to present it all to you over a fast broadband Internet connection.
Now you can take you gaming experience several notches up with a PicoP projector from Microvision and your gaming experience will never be the same...
“These hardcore gamers soon may be unleashed from their stationary position to enjoy a realistic virtual combat experience with life-sized video images, projected on walls, ceilings and floors, all from a weapon-styled projection game controller they hold in their hands.”
“Game players at the tourney who give the prototype a spin will experience “an immersive, 360-degree feel,” promises Ian Brown, Microvision’s Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “The company’s laser projection engine can show a distortion-free image on nearly any flat or curved surface. Consequently, the game goes along with the gamer and reflects the character’s position in three-dimensional space.”
The worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion.
Did I say that before?
Yep, I just wanted to make sure we register that clearly, because that is an additional market, beyond pico projection, that Microvision is addressing in collaboration with Intel... the biggest PC gamer in the world.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
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