Microvision: Ultimate in Mobility… Functionality… Cool Factor (update 9/2010)

It would be cool if Microvision's laser PicoP Display Engine was inside this cube…
http://www.psfk.com/2009/05/60-inch-screen-in-your-pocket.html

Last year, there was so much speculation in the media [by designer YankoDesign] that it almost felt like the real thing would be on the market soon. Just look at the write-up on this “Nokia Pulse Projector” from last year…

“Nokia Pulse Projector is a tiny LED projector that also functions as an NXT speaker with Dolby Sound. This tiny projector uses Bluetooth and Pulse software to communicate with a mobile phone.

It’s meant to pair up with mobile phone, making a pair of perfect multimedia device and the user will be able to use the mobile phone to control this LED projector. The Nokia Pulse Projector relies on DLP Technology for high quality imagery. It’s able to project with native resolution of 1280×768 and 1500:1 contrast ratio pimps out crisp image quality, with picture sizes ranging from 15 inches diagonally all the way up to 60 inches at 7.87 feet. It even sports LED light technology with 1000 lumens of brightness plus 16.7 million colors.

It’ll be another great mini-sized projector that can be carried around anywhere you go for an impromptu presentation of those pictures, videos and slides on your mobile phone, and it lets the mobile phone to be used as the projector’s remote. Nice, but it should be just a concept at the moment."

[via yankodesign]

*****

Here’s the link…
http://askalexia.com/2009/05/23/nokia-pulse-projector/

Here’s some more on this Nokia Pulse with Microvision Mobile Projector inside speculation…

“The Nokia Pulse, a concept by Miika Mahonen, is similar to the soon to be released Microvision Mobile Projector. They’re both designed to be powerful mobile display systems that can use a mobile phone as the source of video and as a remote control. The Nokia Pulse also combines an NXT-speaker with Dolby sound processing into the compact device, which can (theoretically) project images up to 60-inches on any wall.”

Continues…
[via Yanko Design]

*****

Here’s the link…
http://www.psfk.com/2009/05/60-inch-screen-in-your-pocket.html

One year later, however, the concept remains to be just that… a concept. But wait a minute… over the last year, a few developments have come together to bring us closer to this, or something similar to this, as a possible reality in the near future.

There are essentially three parts for this concept to work and they all seem to be in place now…

• Microvision laser based PicoP Projector SHOWwx: was released in the US in March of 2010… and that’s the major part of the puzzle now in place.

The award-winning SHOWwx, available for sale through a variety of distributors and at http://www.microvision.com/showwx, is a standalone laser pico projector intended for simple plug-and-play integration with mobile devices, such as iPod, cell phones, MP3 players, laptops and gaming devices.

• Samsung's new Wireless USB chipset: enables HD streaming with less power.

It's a beautiful combination, really… lower power consumption, and support for high bandwidth applications. That marriage is evident in Samsung's newest Wireless USB chipset, which was built around Ultra Wide Band (UWB) technology and designed to enable high-def streaming between a mobile host device and a tethered device for viewing.

Ultra-Wide Band technology offers many advantages, especially in terms of very high data transmission rates which are well beyond those possible with currently deployed technologies such as 802.11a, b, g, WiMax and the like. As such UWB technology is gaining considerable acceptance and being proposed for use in a number of areas. Already Bluetooth, Wireless USB and others are developing solutions, and in these areas alone its use should be colossal.

According to Samsung, the two-chip solution will be aimed at cameras, camcorders, TVs, PCs, tablets, beam projectors, portable HDDs, Blu-ray players and handsets, and given that it can handle a theoretical high of 480Mbps with an average power consumption of less than 300mW, even the weakest smartphone battery should be able to stream at least a single episode of Family Guy to the TV or a pico projector. It's slated to hit mass production in Q4 and we'd say more details should be available right around CES 2011.

• Pulse Software: that controls communications between the pico projector and the mobile host device. This Pulse software could be part of the Samsung’s wireless USB chipset solution, or a company specific product like… Nokia Pulse [if there is such a thing]…or Apple AirPlay… etc.

“While the Pulse is still just an idea, Microvision is currently working with other companies to incorporate their PicoP Display Engine into devices such as phones, media players, and laptops. Is screen size on your mobile phone irrelevant if you can project onto any wall?”

Perhaps!

Just take a look…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypZO6_7hcNQ&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0

With Microvision laser PicoP Display Engine in-side; this cube could be the ultimate in mobility, functionality and cool factor.

Not only that, it is a productivity enhancing tool for business communications, as well as, a perfect product for personal and interactive entertainment… all in one cool package.

Everything that you need to put this cool product out there for the consumer to buy is here… all it takes, is the vision and the will to succeed before the next product cycle or someone else comes-up with a better mouse trap.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Apple─ The Media Player OEM?

At the Microvision shareholder’s meeting on September 15th, 2009, there were some questions asked about OEM relationship with Apple.

My take on CEO Alex Tokman’s answer was something like: “Apple World loves us and we have to be ready… I just ask you that you be patient.” In all probability, Microvision was in talks with “Apple”, however, there wasn't enough unit volume of PicoP Display Engines for Apple’s appetite at that time to be engaged officially.

Fast forward to today, last day of August 2010…

A year later, you may want to re-visit the questions about Apple in light of Microvision’s $11.1 million order from a [non-disclosed] Media Player OEM for the embedded PDEs…

• $11.1 million in initial order is not a small order by any means… because after the initial order, all of Microvision production could go to this OEM on a monthly basis. And these monthly orders represent about $12 million per Qtr [20,000pm x 3m x $200per unit = $12 million] in the first half of 2011… and increasing.

• With 5 Green Laser suppliers, the unit production can easily be ramped –up to 100,000 units per month… and that’s a decent production run for any Premium Media Player OEM like Apple or NetFlix.

• With diode GL coming into play some time in 2011, number of units can only go higher than the 100,000 per month… and that’s not shabby at all.

• Since announcing the Media Player OEM early this year, Microvision has been very tight lipped about the identity of this OEM… which is a typical modus of operands for any of the Apple suppliers. A small time OEM would probably follow the example of rest of the OEM flock in the CE industry─ where it is a common practice to earn some free publicity by announcing new products in the pipe line.

• CEO of Microvision has, on more than one occasion, stated publicly that the Media Player OEM would announce the product on its own time schedule before the 2010 Christmas shopping season. Well, early September is a good time to announce new products for the 2010 seasonal shopping… don’t you think? Apple will be making product announcements on September 1st … now that’s some coincidence!!!

• On March 8th, 2010, Microvision announced two new members of the management team: Joe O'Sullivan as Vice President of Global Operations and Michael Fritts as Vice President of Global Sales, Marketing, and Business Development.

Mr. O'Sullivan is a consumer electronics industry veteran with executive management experience at Apple Computer and InFocus. At Apple, Mr. O'Sullivan spent 15 years in operations and supply chain management, including Vice President of Operations where he was instrumental in building a global operations infrastructure in Asia. In addition, he developed Apple's International Procurement Organization strategy, building a structure in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Europe.

Today, a day before Apple’s new product introduction on September 1st , we hear this rumor about: “New iPod May Include Projector”.  Could it be Microvision’s laser based PicoP projector inside the Apple’s new premium iPod?

We just have to wait and see.

Here’s the link to the rumor news…
http://www.benzinga.com/company-news/contracts/10/08/450653/new-ipod-may-include-projector-mvis-aapl

While we wait, let’s look at Apple’s secret to success…

“Show and Sell”

All the while the competition…

"Flashes an exotic prototype, then – Presto! – get consumers to buy their more boring stuff. That kind of thinking still rules at most electronics companies. Apple under Steve Jobs only shows off actual products. And that difference is Apple’s arcane secret to success."

Like washed-up Catskill magicians unable to let go of old routines while a brash upstart steals their audience, nearly every maker of consumer electronics in the world clings to a quaint song-and-dance about prototypes.

“Here is your possible future,” they bark, flourishing the latest conceptual product from the lab. “Now watch us make it disappear!”

Apple’s chief magician, however, knows better, pulling solid objects out of the ether; products you can actually buy.

No one can be sure until the rumors lead the way to actual news in the media or corporate announcements.

But if you think it is possible, than rest assure it can happen someday.

If this sounds like a minor complaint about most of the industry’s lack of imagination in marketing, you’re misunderstanding the whole act. The fact that Apple does not reveal prototypes but shipping products; is the fundamental difference between their entire business strategy and that of the rest of the CE industry. It evokes a feeling of trust between Apple and consumers – that when Apple actually reveals a product, it’s something that they’re confident enough to support for years to come.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Investors Are Just Frustrated

Definition of “Frustration”…

• The act of frustrating or an instance of being frustrated
• The state of being frustrated
• Something that serves to frustrate

Let's add one more definition to the word frustration...

“waiting for definitive plans and answers to simple question from Microvision while being told that the management will disclose them soon by the next CC… or some other future event that has come and gone by the way side over the last 4 years.”

How dare we worry about where our investment dollars are going when it's such a small part of the big picture of: “the holly grail of embedded PicoP projectors in the billion unit mobile world?” What frustrates us now is another article about the Green Laser price and availability. It sounded like yet another warning, by those in the industry, why a laser based PicoP will fail because of Green Laser pricing issues. I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the issue, but can somebody please throw some light on this 4 year old issue of GL availability, pricing and stability issues as they affect the profit margins and eventual success of laser based PicoP projectors.

Here’re some more thoughts on frustration…

• Having the wool pulled over our eyes is frustrating;
• Lack of communications in spoken English is frustrating;
• Waiting for straight answers is frustrating;
• Having legitimate concerns brushed aside is frustrating;
• Being told to take the pain and ignore the small stuff is frustrating;
• Watching the market price of MVIS drift lower and lower is frustrating, too.

There is enough dry powder on the sidelines to send this market [and MVIS stock price] significantly higher, even into the plus column for the year. But, would-be buyers continue to be stymied as each day brings more questions rather than answers and we keep hearing how off base our concerns are. While panic has become the permanent aroma that greets investors each day, I sense frustration could be moving the market more than any other feeling these days, and certainly over the last few days.

I'm getting emails and phone calls and I know that many folks just want to throw in the towel out of frustration and a lack of confidence. Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be just fine and at the end of the day [in mid 2011] Microvision investor will come out whole.

If you are wondering “why mid 2011”…

Here’s what I have finally figured out…

• Currently, the quantities of synthetic green lasers and the ASICs are too small─ like 5,000 to 10,000 units per month, and the cost is relatively too expensive… thus the negative profit margins. The key word is “relatively”… meaning product cost [in such small quantities] is more than the transfer price that can be charged to the OEMs at a suggested retail price of $549.

• To put it another way; if the retail price was increased to $649 and the transfer price charged to OEMs also raised by say $60… than the relative cost of product─ at such small quantities, may NOT be, relatively speaking, too expensive… thus the potential for positive profit margins.

However, the recent drop of $100 in the retail price of SHOWwx [from $549 to $449] mucks the waters yet again and that is frustrating. Does this mean that the price of synthetic green lasers has come down significantly to a point where Microvision can charge less for SHOWwx and still make some profit? Well, that is one thought… as in one side of the coin so to speak.

The other side of the coin could be; that Microvision needs to clear old stock at a loss in anticipation of second generation PDEs that are expected to be cheaper, smaller, more energy efficient and with higher 15- lumen brightness and 720P HD resolution.

We don’t know for sure one way or the other… and that is frustrating.

The current debate between synthetic green lasers versus the diode [direct] green lasers got so confusing at the 2nd Qtr earnings CC that Microvision CEO responded with a Blog post at The Displayground to clear-up the matter.

Here’s the link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1761#comments

Green Laser Diodes Are On the Way, In the Meantime If Done Right Synthetic Green Lasers Have an Embedded Play

What I find very interesting is the comment about…

“We have already begun to see availability of the first generation synthetic lasers increase. The next generation synthetic green lasers are expected to be more efficient and less expensive than their first generation cousins. We also anticipate that the direct green lasers targeted for introduction in the second half of next year may not reach desired performance and cost targets immediately. For these reasons, we believe that synthetic lasers could continue to remain a competitive alternative to direct green lasers for at least the first 4-5 years after diodes are introduced.”

From the CEO comments about synthetic lasers, it is now clear that they have 4-5 years as the economic life cycle… before the diode green laser mature and become cost competitive. Considering the potential volume sales of laser based pico projectors over the next 5 years, which could easily run into 200-300 million units, there’s enough incentive for the synthetic green laser manufactures to ramp-up production with corresponding drop in prices.

I see two opportunities for cost reduction, and a very strong possibility of profitable margins, in the near future…

• Next generation green lasers and ASICs should be coming out in the next three or four months and they are more efficient and less expensive… and that bodes well for positive margins.

• A significantly large order from an OEM, in the 50,000 to 100,000 units per month range, will not only motivate the synthetic Green Laser suppliers, Corning and Osram, to crank-up the production lines… but it will also help reach the critical volume in terms of quantities that would result in some dramatic price drop.

With next generation synthetic Green Laser supply continuing to improve over the rest of year 2010, it is just the matter of time that a visionary company like Apple will come waltzing down the aisle to embed Microvision’s PDEs in their smartphones, iPads or iPods etc. If it is not Apple or NetFlix initially, it will be someone else… you can bet on that.

It may not be quite apparent to the naked eye; but with a little diligence the negative profit margins issue is just a short term anomaly that should correct itself in the next three to four months.

In the meantime, we are just frustrated!

Anant Goel

Microvision: Employees Talk

When you work for a cutting edge technology company like Microvision, there are bound to be comments from employees that are good [called pros] and bad [called the cons].

I’ll skip the “pros” because they tend to be mostly glowing and biased… because if the employee still works there then it must be good; otherwise “what the heck are you doing there in the first place”.

However, when it comes to “cons”, they really tell a lot about the company and how it operates internally. One word of caution nonetheless when reading the “cons”… you have to extrapolate the negative because most of the time the employees talking to you are reluctant to say bluntly what’s on their mind for the sake of keeping the job they have at Microvision.

With that in mind, here are some Microvision employee comments…

Microvision Engineer in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
“Microvision - when you work here, you make a difference.”
4/28/2009

Cons:
As a small company, some resources are not available. Everyone, all the time, is stretching to get done what needs to be done. There is a fairly constant feeling of being overloaded.

Advice to Senior Management:
Try to cut back on the project list.

Microvision Engineer in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
“Working for Microvision”
7/19/2010

Cons:
Too much work, extra time not compensated. Poor communications among teams. Busy all year round, no taking it easy time. Lots of deadlines.

Advice to Senior Management:
More free time, less tightly bound schedules; more communication would really make Microvision a good place to work for everyday.

Microvision Not Telling As We Run So Thin A Job Title Would Give It Away. in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
6/17/2008

Cons:
Some of the downsides to working at Microvision is that Senior Management is not very good at communicating down to the regular employees. It's a bit embarrassing having a relative call me about a press release that I hadn't heard because we don't say anything internally. I think it was almost two months before they announced a huge sale of bar code scanners to the rest of the company. When all you are selling is one product at the moment those kinds of wins help pick people up!

One other big downside is that much of the company needs to switch their thinking from how they were before. I've never worked at a place that actually sold something that had so many barriers in place to finishing a sale, so many signatures are needed and physical pieces of paper need to go places, it's very inefficient. There are definite growing pains here as the company goes from an R & D house to a company that actually sells consumer products.

One final downside is that we are running very lean on people so often times you have to do things that are completely outside of your scope. While this is good at times, sometimes it feels like you get setup for failure.

Advice to Senior Management:
I would urge Senior Management to celebrate the wins when they happen. Also if there's news going out, even if it's "non news" let the rest of the company know so we don't look stupid when people ask us about it.

In conclusion, here’s the link just to make sure you don’t think I made-up this crap…
http://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Microvision-Reviews-E6316.htm

Advise to Microvision investors…

“Don’t get too comfortable… keep an eye open while taking the snooze”.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On Monday March 8, 2010, 4:20 pm EST

Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010

Company Announces U.S. Introduction of SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector, Availability of Second Commercial Supply for Green Laser, New Purchase Orders, and Additions to Management Team

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2009 and its plans for 2010.

Continued…

*****

Here’s the link to the full earnings report…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100308006744&newsLang=en

Last three years, especially the year 2009, has been the most frustrating period for Microvision corporate management… mainly due to delays caused by over optimistic green laser production schedule by Corning. However, after 30 months of delay due to technical and production problems, the issues are finally behind us and Microvision has officially launched the world first laser based PicoP projector in the US today.

After the market close on March 8th, Microvision management presented the quarterly/yearly earnings report. After looking at the details of SHOWwx laser PicoP projector launch from this morning and then listing to earnings conference call, I could not help but feel that today is the day when Microvision really went public with an IPO.

Microvision: Goes Public with an IPO… March 8th 2010

Now that I have your attention, consider this…

If Microvision were to have an IPO right after the SHOWwx launch in the US today followed by a very bullish earnings conference call… the IPO price would be more like $20 if not higher.

We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.

Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, huge backlog, ramping-up production forecasts, improving margins, and glowing recognition by industry; like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.60.

Looks like the shorts have you all spooked, doubting yourself, and in knots over in-decision.

One of the issues, if you would call it that, the shorts will “harp on” and have you believe is about low future revenues and insignificant margins.

Well, let’s set the record straight here, shall we…

Many folks don’t realize that the green laser unit forecasts Alex presented at the CC; they do not include any green laser contribution from Osram. Osram green lasers have been validated but production quantities are not yet shipping in any significant quantities… and as such are not part of the unit number forecast presented at the conference call.

Osram green lasers are the surprise factor; both in terms of higher production volumes─ higher than what Alex has projected from Corning and dramatic overall cost reduction due to cheaper Osram green lasers.

The good news─ in the short term, that Alex talked about in his closing remarks, in my opinion, is all about Osram starting to ship production quantities of green lasers as early as the last week of March. Osram green lasers are much cheaper and have much better yields. That’s the surprise factor that Alex alluded to in his closing remarks at the CC.

Be aware of the competitors, shorts and unscrupulous stock traders; when they bash the SHOWwx revenue and profit margins to justify their agenda… whatever form or shape it takes.

Consider this…

• Profit margins on SHOWwx that have been shipped are better than what you may think [or are made to believe] by just looking at 4th Qtr “product sale revenue” vs. the “product COG” numbers. First, the initial batch of product shipped is very small… few hundreds at the most, and that is not a large enough sample to base future trends.

Second, the cost of about 50 or so demo units in the hands and homes of Microvision executives has cost but no revenue. That hurts the revenue numbers and skews the COG numbers as much higher than they really are.

• Profit margins and revenues will dramatically increase─ over and above what they truly are at present, as soon as Osram starts shipping their better and cheaper green lasers in production quantities… as early as the end of March.

• Profit margins are dramatically higher [over 300%] on the Limited Edition SHOWwx that are for sale in the US today.

• Profit margins are substantially higher [over 100%] on the Commercial Edition SHOWwx that will be for sale in the US on March 24th.

There is no better way to say it, than to say it as it really is…

“Alex Tokman, in his closing remarks at the CC, alluded to two pieces of good news coming up: one in the short term [like in weeks] and the other in the mid term."

The short term good news, in my opinion, is about Osram shipping production quantities of their green lasers to Microvision… and that will more than double the forecasted SHOWwx quantities that can be shipped at much better profit margins.

In closing…

Be aware of the competitors, shorts, manipulators, and the unscrupulous operators that would like you to believe that the future revenues and profit margins as insignificant… because, by having you believe that and then manipulate you to sell would serve their agenda to short Microvision.

So why don’t you guys just wake-up, believe in yourselves and stop playing into the hands of unscrupulous shorts.

Be an educated investor and go about making some serious money in the near future.

Stop playing for nickels and dimes… only kids do that with too much time on their hands.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: To Host Q4 and Full Year 2009 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Wednesday March 3, 2010, 9:00 am EST

Microvision to Host Q4 and Full Year 2009 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS) announced today that it plans to host a conference call on March 8, 2010 at 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT to discuss its fourth quarter and full year 2009 financial and operating results and current business operations.

Participants may join the conference call by dialing (866) 770-7129 (for U.S. participants) or (617) 213-8067 (for International participants) ten minutes prior to the start of the conference. The conference pass-code number is 87213505. Additionally, the call will be broadcast over the Internet and can be accessed from the company’s web site at www.microvision.com/investors. The webcast and information needed to access the telephone replay will be available through the same link approximately one hour after the conference call concludes.

*****

Here’s the link to the Press Release…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100303005481&newsLang=en

Now if you go to Microvision’s blog site─ The Displayground, you have the opportunity to post your questions that you may want to ask the management. There is no guarantee that your question will be answered; but you may want to give it a shot anyway…

http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

Here’re some questions that many of us, the humbled investors of Microvision, would like to ask.

Pardon the style of my asking questions… but it does make it easier, to answer simple questions without much room for misunderstanding or ambiguity…

• Osram has started shipping production quality SHG green lasers to Microvision… no?

• Back orders, as stated in the 3rd Qtr earnings report, are now fulfilled… no?

• Can we expect another round of funding in July 2010… yes?

• Do you think that SHOWwx will be launched in the US any time soon… no?

• Are there any other plans, besides the ever elusive product sales, to monetize the various technologies in Microvision IP portfolio… no?

For the first time, in a long time, I’m completely stymied at finding any kind of news leak at Microvision… that is, now just before this Q4’09 earnings conference call.

It is very unusual for Microvision, and its supply chain partners, to be so tight lipped about giving out any meaningful information in a discernible manner.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Discernible:
(adjective) clear, obvious, apparent, plain, visible, distinct, noticeable, recognizable, detectable, observable, perceptible, distinguishable, appreciable, discoverable

Microvision: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage (Report Update February 8, 2010)

On December 11th, Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Microvision with a “Perform” rating and also published an analyst’s report.

Oppenheimer defines their “Perform” rating as...

“Stock expected to perform in line with S&P 500 within the next 12 – 18 months.”

Here’s the link to my two part post on the subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-oppenheimer-initiates.html

On February 8th, Oppenheimer published a ten page report update…

http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/oEaRS45DzWrf776_EvDxFdQxDCDKAxpUt-kPuLlAFvD8X4pGQvzvIwHqu5SjjCcOzoGxeJr8_SXxFGRHVugyKt7siylf/MVIS_OPP_0210.pdf

In depth reading of this report update is certainly recommended. However, here’s the summary…

EQUITY RESEARCH

COMPANY UPDATE

February 8, 2010
TECHNOLOGY/APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Microvision, Inc.
Green Lasers Ramping Up

SUMMARY
Last Friday brought a bit of good news about the availability of green lasers, the key gating factor for the production ramp of Microvision's pico projector. The news was delivered during an Investor Day event held by Corning (GLW, $18.05, O), currently the world's only supplier of green lasers. Corning had missed a number of ramp-up targets over the course of 2009, but now appears on track and is currently producing 1K green lasers per week and still growing. As such, green laser availability should not pose a roadblock for our current MVIS volume estimates, which target 8K unit in 1Q10 and 83K units for FY10.

KEY POINTS
• Corning also noted that it is currently working on a second generation green laser, which will double its output to 20 lumens from 10 lumens. Corning does not see the quantum dot laser technology as a competitive threat, as its efficiency and brightness remain low.

• Bottom line: while we believe the value proposition of the ShowWX and the PicoP embedded module still need to prove themselves in the market, it appears component availability is set to become less of a gating factor near term.

EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE

Oppenheimer

*****

 

From what I hear, we are still on track to launch SHOWwx for the US market in March of 2010.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: You have to Earn Investor Respect

Today is 19th of February and there is no word from Microvision about the March 2010 launch of SHOWwx in the US.

Will this be another missed time line from Microvision?

Perhaps not... but the launch, if it does happen in March, may be nothing more than a token launch at best.

Unless my information is completely out of touch with reality, it seems that the problem may still be the green laser supply from Corning and Osram. I know that quantities are still limited, but don’t you think the management should atleast have the web site, for on-line sales of SHOWwx, up and running by now. At the very least, thousands of VIPs should have heard from Microvision by this time... that is, if the March launch is still on.

It will be interesting to see how Microvision management handles another “token launch” this time around. It has been a very frustrating two and half years now... waiting on green lasers on one hand and some transparency from the management on the other. The patience is running thin... and the well of goodwill and respect for this management is running dry.

Respect takes a long time to build and it's easily destroyed... especially after two and half years of patiently waiting for some straight answers.

When it comes to calculating asset value of a company there are three elements to consider...

• Physical,

• Financial,

• Reputation.

Yes, reputation of a company plays an important role among the Investor community as they pay up for respect, in part because respected companies tend to hold their value longer.

"Respected companies aren't going to fall as far in the bad times, and they come back better," says David Hartzell of Cornell Capital Management.

Defining respect isn't easy. "It's a difficult concept”.

However, there are surveys that clearly show...

“Respected companies have strong management, good governance, valuable products and services, and strong stock returns. They treat their shareholders, customers and employees well. They act ethically. And while some money managers name respect as the first cut in their investment process, others say respect is more often the result of a sound investment process.”

John Roberts, a portfolio manager with Denver Investments, contends that respect answers the question "Is management going to be a good steward of our clients' money?

Over the last two years, Microvision management has done very little to earn the respect from retail and institutional investors... as evident by roller-coaster ride experienced with Microvision stock over this two year period.

Here’s the link to the stock chart...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358

It is sad but what can I say; other than...

“Microvision: You have to Earn Investor Respect”

Anant Goel

[Suggested read, reference article on: “The World's Most Respected Companies” at SmartMoney.com]...
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/The-Worlds-Most-Respected-Companies/?hpadref=1#ixzz0fzDrR3vO

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Missing from Mobile World Congress meet in Barcelona – February 15-18, 2010

Mobile World Congress is being held in Barcelona [Spain] from February 15-18, 2010.

Here’s the link...
http://www.mobileworldcongress.com/sponsors/sponsors.htm

Last year, Microvision was there as one of the exhibitors and got some very good reviews for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx...

http://vimeo.com/3340611

However, this year Microvision is not at the Mobile World Congress meet.

Do you know why?

That’s right... because Vodafone is there as one of the sponsor of this event. And Vodafone is Microvision’s first Mobile Phone Carrier customer.

Here’s the link to the post on this subject...
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-vodafone-is-first-mobile.html

Looks like things are finally coming together as they should be; at this stage of product launch.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman (update)

I’ll be the first one to admit that at times we all fall into this trap of making rash judgment based on who said what where and when.

Given the time for the initial reaction to settle down and with a little bit more patience, today I see, for whatever it is worth, the positive side of the information shared by CEO Alex Tokman at his interview of January 7th. Having reviewed the events over the last twenty days and listening to the interview several times again, I must admit I got the intended message somewhat wrong. If I was given the opportunity to retract my original post, I would probably say things little differently today.

Here’s what I see today…

Over the last twenty days the “perfect storm” has lost strength after we had the opportunity to rationalize events that caused such turmoil in the first place.

On January 11th, I wrote about the “perfect storm” at Microvision in my blog at…
http://www.mirro7.blogspot.com/

In summary what I said…

“What we have seen over the past 48 hours is the “perfect storm” brewing in the future of Microvision. It started with Asia Optical making public comments [as perceived] in the media about TI having the best pico solution for embedded applications. It picked-up more gale force after the in-house staged CEO interview where Alex indicated more delays and future uncertainties. It became a perfect storm of hurricane force magnitude over the PC Magazine review of SHOWwx.”

“Individually these negative issues are easy to deal with because they have a reasonable explanation... and as such may or may not have an impact on the MVIS share price in the short term. However, collectively they are the recipe for a “perfect storm” and may precipitate an investor sell-off first and then look for explanation later... and that could be very damaging to the overall investor psyche.”

Now twenty days after the CEO interview, let’s review the three elements of this perfect storm to see how things stack-up today…

Asia Optical Comments about TI Pico Solution
Asia Optical is a relatively new supply chain partner of Microvision with a relationship that formed just over a year ago. When AO makes comments that favor TI pico solution; it is understandable since Asia Optical has years of existing and ongoing relationship with them. So we can put that aside and consider it a minor twister in the way large corporations stick together and pay more attention to their current revenue source rather than go out of their way to support the business plan of a newcomer [like Microvision] with a glowing future potential.

Granted, that AO could have said something complimentary to TI without stating the “DLP pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency”. When you look at the choice of words that AO used, it is easy to mistakenly take it as saying that DLP pico(TM) solution is the best for embedded applications. However, that is not the case and I don’t see the words of AO saying that either.

First of all, Asia Optical knows that pico(TM) is the registered trade mark of Microvision. And DLP pico solution may not be the best when compared to laser based PicoP solution from Microvision for embedded applications. However, since there are no embedded pico display engines from Microvision to be found on planet earth as yet… and considering the existing pico technologies out there currently, the DLP pico solution is perhaps the most compelling solution etc. etc.

Interview with Microvision CEO Alex Tokman
On January 7th, Alex Tokman gave an interview that was posted at the company’s blog site The Displayground.

Here’s the link to the interview...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

After listening to the CEO interview, I had, just like many others, a mixed bag of reaction…

• The first and foremost was to congratulate the management for taking the bold initiative to communicate with the stakeholders at the blog in such an informal setting. The Displayground has been a leap of faith in the way a corporation, such as Microvision, has embraced the Internet to communicate with its stakeholders.

• Since investors of Microvision, and I’m one of them, have such high expectations of the management, that at first blush the interview looks so stiff and staged. But when you look at the interview again and pay more attention to the subject matter, rather than watch the body language of Alex Tokman, it kind of grows on you.

• Both the timing and the intended [or unintended] information disseminated at this interview left the investors with a perception of further delays in green laser production and also delays in the release of PDE [PicoP Display Engine] evaluation units to OEMs for embedded applications. That in my opinion was the center of this “perfect storm” brewing over at Microvision.

It’s not very often, if ever, that you see the CEO of a company give an informal interview to release information that could have some serious consequences to not only its stock price but also raise questions about future time lines etc. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what this interview did... precipitate a stock sell-off and did some serious damage to the credibility of Microvision management.

First the timing...

The timing of this in-house interview with Microvision CEO couldn’t have been the worst move in the history of Microvision. It tops all the other “blunders” the top Management [past and present] has made over the years. Unfortunately, it effectively neutralized any positive impact of the CES 2010 award that Microvision received as the “Last Gadget Standing” for its SHOWwx projector.

All that reaction was looking at the interview from 20 days ago and making a rash judgment call.

Today, with a bit of patience and reviewing the interview again you will see the positive aspects that you may have missed before. To get the most out of this interview, it is best to listen to it again [a few times] and make sure to keep your skepticism of the management out of the way.

Here we go…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

PC Magazine Review
On January 7th, PC Magazine published their findings of SHOWwx pico projector review. Boy, oh boy! Talk about perfect timing to join in the storm brewing at Microvision.

First, here’s the link...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp

Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.

Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.

When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.

Having realized that, I did some research and wrote a post on the blog…

“PC Magazine Review is Full of Crap, Flawed, and Biased”

Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2010/01/microvision-pc-magazine-review-is-full.html

There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.

In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased.

As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...

http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6w

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related

Or this for the large screen experience…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvbRyYAevQw

Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...

“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.

The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.

While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”

Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+transformed+into+tech+lover+paradise/2417678/story.html

At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.

Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09/and-the-winners-are/

Now you tell me?

Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.

You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.

In closing this post...

The stakes here are very high, and we are worried that Microvision management underestimates the things they need to do, as well as, the things their competitors will do to gain advantage in the pico projector marketplace. Obviously, Microvision management did not see this “perfect storm” coming and apparently had no contingency plan.

However, over the last twenty days, the “perfect storm” has lost strength after we had the opportunity to rationalize events that caused such turmoil in the first place.  Given the time for the initial reaction to settle down and with a little bit more patience, today I see, for whatever it is worth, the positive side of the information shared by CEO Alex Tokman in his interview of January 7th.

I suggest that you also listen to CEO Alex Tokman’s interview again [a few times] with an open mind and without your skepticism of the Microvision management.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx Has the Best Image Quality

First, let me clearly state again that PC Magazine Review of SHOWwx is full of crap, flawed and is biased.

Having said, let’s take a look at the projected image lumens issue again and explain why SHOWwx has the best image quality...

There are no industry standards [yet] for projected image quality!

However, projection industry players have aligned to set new standards. Here’s the link the article on this subject dated 1/7/2008…

http://news.websitegear.com/view/35069

This article states...

“From the classroom to the boardroom to the living room, vivid color improves communication-enhancing attention, comprehension and learning. Current industry specification metrics fail to highlight the differences in color light output among competing products and technologies -- leaving it virtually unreported. Despite the overwhelming use of color today, the industry has continued to rely largely on specifications that only measure black and white performance such as brightness and contrast ratio. There is growing consensus for the need for an effective, easy-to-use projector measurement metric -- Color Brightness.”

"Based on the existing industry-standard test, Color Brightness, like the current light output measure for brightness (white), is reported in lumens. Color Brightness specifies a projector's ability to deliver the primary colors of light. Today, all video; DVD, HD, digital camera and computer signals are encoded in an RGB color space. Color Brightness measures the brightness of red, green and blue, exactly matching the input signal. If a projector can produce bright red, green and blue equal to the brightness of white, it can reproduce the true color that the creators intended. If Color Brightness does not equal or come close to the white brightness, color images can appear dark, washed out and less accurate."

"Leading color experts agree. "Without this new metric, consumers are in the dark about color performance," commented Karl Lang, president of Lumita. "Two projectors that both advertise 2,000 (white) lumens can have vastly different color performance. Color brightness provides the information consumers have needed for a long time," continued Lang."

Currently, only psychophysical methods for estimating image quality are currently used and they are highly subjective. Here’s a quote from an industry expert on the subject…

“Don Williams, an image scientist from Eastman Kodak who facilitated the meeting, spoke both for imaging practitioners and for imaging scientists and other members of standards committees when he noted, "There appears to be somewhat of a consensus that there is not any reasonable way right now to look at all imaging performance measures without ambiguity."

“Subjective assessments are notoriously flawed, due not only to differences among human observers, but to limitations of devices that render images (monitors, printers), as well as the differences in ambient lighting in two or more viewing environments.”

“Intentional or unintentional use of imprecise terminology also creates ambiguity. For example, industry's marketing literature and our community's funding guidelines routinely associate image quality with unreliable metrics-such as resolution and bit depth. These performance characteristics refer to input settings and become ambiguous if used to describe output quality. The same source could be digitized by two systems that produce the same nominal results (e.g., 3,000 pixel, 24-bit RGB images) yet the quality of the images may differ significantly.”

The bottom line is, currently the manufactures [try] to differentiate their projected image quality in terms of “lumens”, “pixels” “bits”. That methodology may be fine for traditional bright lamp or LCD based image projectors. However, for laser projectors the use of lumens to define image quality is flawed… although the pixels and bits may still be useful metrics in defining the laser projection image quality.

First, let’s talk about “laser lumens” vs. “diffused light lumens”…

Laser light is very concentrated light at less than 1 degree deflection. So, 10 lumen laser light projected image [pixel by pixel] is 1,300 lumen light projection image from a traditional lamp/LCD projector about 100 inches away.

I am not the only one that agrees with that “psychophysical methods for estimating image quality”. Mr. Golan Manor, VP Technical Marketing for Explay, also happens to shares my views on the subject…

“As for actual image brightness, all of these devices project images in the range of 10 lumens. As Explay's Manor note, it's the equivalent of 1300 lumens projecting at 100 inches.”

Here’s the link to Mr. Golan Manor’s quote [at the end of the article]…
http://www.physorg.com/news94387529.html

I agree with Mr. Manor... not because he is right but also a picture speaks a thousand words.

Just take a look for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related

When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more weeks will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: “What’s Your Business Growth Strategy”?

From the looks of it, Microvision stock seems to have stabilized and margin call related selling has subsided after 6 days of trading below the $3 mark.

Have to agree with you, that it hasn't been a walk in the park investing in Microvision. But then again, good things come to those that have the patience, knowledge, analytical fortitude and the power of belief to stay the course.

When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more months will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.

After listening to CEO Alex Tokman interview again, this is my reaction for whatever it is worth...

Microvision: What’s Your Business Growth Strategy?

Every business has to plan for growth and executives should make sure their growth plans are consistent with their dynamic business plan. A dynamic business plan is an updated version that is kept current to reflect the ever-changing business-operating environment. Especially in the technology and DOT.com businesses, where the product cycles are so short and consumer preferences are mostly dependent on the next hot product or service.

When it comes to growth plans, the two ends of the spectrum are, for example, should a company grow quickly and unprofitably, like Amazon and Hotmail [before it got acquired by Microsoft for $480 million], or slowly, with a careful eye on the bottom line, like Ben & Jerry's ice cream parlors? It all depends on what the competition is doing.

This report focuses on the challenges of growing a business and the importance of picking the right growth model that is consistent with your business plan and positions you for whatever your ultimate goal is. As the author sees it, there are three possible scenarios:

Number one: you want to be the gorilla of your industry in a hurry like Amazon.
Number two: you want to ramp-up your business fast and position for an acquisition like Hotmail.
Number three: you want to be a brick and mortar company producing steady profits like Ben & Jerry’s.

Regardless of what your business model is, the CEO and the CFO of the company need to formalize their business growth strategy and evangelize to the man in-charge of running the day-to-day operation of the business. Building a company is no small task? You've got one very important decision to make, because it affects everything else you do. No matter what else you do, you absolutely must figure out which camp you're in, and gear everything you do accordingly, or you're going to have a disaster on your hands.

THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS:
Whether to grow slowly, organically, and profitably, or whether to have a big bang with very fast growth with lots of capital spent in a hurry, that is the question?

The first model, popularly called "Get Big Fast" (a.k.a. "Land Grab"), requires you to raise a lot of capital, and work as quickly as possible to get big fast without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this the “Amazon”, because Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, has practically become the celebrity spokes-model for Get Big Fast.

The second model is called "Hotmail for Sale or Fail". Please note that Hotmail, before its acquisition by Microsoft, is the subject of our discussion here. And as for the name of our model “Hotmail for Sale or Fail”, I just made it up to make the point. This model requires you to raise only a small amount of capital, position for acquisition, and work as quickly as possible to build momentum to show there is promise of getting big fast… without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this “Hotmail” model, because Hotmail fits this model very well.

The third model, organic growth model, is to start small, with limited goals, and slowly build a business over a long period of time. I'm going to call this “Ben & Jerry’s” model, because Ben & Jerry’s fit this model pretty well.

The worst thing you can do is fail to decide whether you're going to be a Ben and Jerry's company, or a Hotmail company, or an Amazon company.

IN SUMMARY:
If you have the capability to raise tons of money, and you're going into a market with no existing competition, have lock-in and network/viral effects, you better use the Amazon model, or you're going the way of Wordsworth.com, which started two years before Amazon, but nobody's ever heard of them. Or even worse, you're going to be a ghost site like MSN Auctions with virtually no chance of ever overcoming eBay.

If you don’t have the ability to raise tons of money, and you're going into a market with no existing competition, have lock-in and network/viral effects, you better use the Hotmail.com model. Or you're going the way of the 95% of Amazon copycats, with weak capitalization, that have landed hard on their thin ass-set and nobody's ever heard of them.

If you're going into an established market, getting big fast is a fabulous way of wasting tons of money, as did BarnesandNoble.com. Your best hope is to do something sustainable and profitable, so that you have years to slowly take over your competition. You should start in one area, offer competitive prices, differentiate your services or offer variety of choices to create your customer base by getting customers to switch over from established competitors.

In closing, we should ask CEO Alex Tokman: “Microvision: What’s Your Business Growth Strategy?”

Anant Goel

PS: This post is based on a management report titled “… Technologies Business Growth Strategy” published by the author [Anant Goel] for a multi-million dollar company that was recently sold to a multi-billion dollar public company.

Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman

Dear Mr. Tokman:

Considering the further delays and continued issues with executing the green laser based product business plan, please consider cutting the overhead by at least 70%.

Smart money investors have already sold-off and left! Why continue with a burn rate that reflects high levels of product development and sales activity... when there is none? I say this after looking at [and not finding anything other than SHOWwx] at the CES 2010 show. And yes, I also looked at the on-line interview at least ten times... just to be sure that I got the intended message right.

Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx has been around for almost two years now and is already an old technology... so to speak. Granted, that laser based pico projectors will be a huge success someday... but that day or for that matter that year is not this year to put it bluntly.

It is time to take control of this green laser nonsense that has been making rounds for the last two years and explore alternate technologies such as pico projectors that work with slow modulating green lasers.

With the existing laser light technology as it is today, it is stretching the technology envelop little too far to achieve SHG green lasers that can reliably modulate at 100MHz. Also, you may have experienced success with MEMS mirrors with carbon fiber torsion arms that can modulate fast enough today... but what happens to them a year or two from now is anybody’s guess. Materials fatigue and fail at exponential rate at the high end of the stress cycle.

For God’s sake control costs and think survival over the next two years when technology will be ready to support your currently demanding product specifications.

Also, the embedded pico projectors could be the ultimate goal for mass adoption and profitability in the future... but the standalone SHOWwx and its derivatives can still make Microvision profitable this year.

Warm regards,

Anant Goel
Beaten, bruised and humbled investor of Microvision

Microvision: Trading Alert on Our Core Holdings

January 6, 2010 11:00 AM

After Monday's explosion through 12-month highs, stocks treaded water yesterday as traders caught their breath and appraised the current state of the market.

"As goes January, so goes the rest of the year," has been one of those oft-repeated sayings on Wall Street for decades. If that's the case, then the year has blasted off to a strong start.

Even yesterday's mild hesitation is to be expected, as investors study the various possible stock and sector choices before making the leap of faith. Before that leap, traders usually want to know what immediate risks versus rewards there are at the current trading level.

For the Dow, the current support starts at the breakout level of 10,500 and has a bottom at 10,300. Within that trading spread are both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. A penetration of this zone [to the downside] would be serious enough to have traders liquidate positions at small losses since the near-term trend would be in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

For the S&P 500, the current support starts at the breakout level of 1,135 and has a bottom at 1,090. Within that trading spread are both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. A penetration of this zone [to the downside] would be serious enough to have traders liquidate positions at small losses since the near-term trend would be in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Now we have some idea of the risk... so what is the possible reward?

First, the market clearly demonstrated by Monday's action that the bull market has been newly confirmed and the market is in a powerful uptrend. Traders will want to watch specific targets to take profits, like the first area of resistance at Dow 10,500 to 11,150, and then to 11,800. But longer-term investors may wish to hold for even bigger gains since the indications are strong that sometime within the next two years the Dow could reach its former high of 14,000 plus.

Trading Alert on Our Core Holdings

Microvision [MVIS]: Over the last three trading days, the MVIS stock has moved up very quickly from $3.07 to $3.60 this morning on some heavy volume indicating institutional buying.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358

There are essentially two reasons...

1. There is some favorable press release from Microvision this morning before the start of CES 2010 Expo. Here’s the link...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvisions-SHOWWX-Puts-bw-1845964462.html?x=0&.v=1

It says...

“Interest and demand for this product is very strong and we’re excited to have the SHOWWX as our center piece at CES,” stated Ian Brown, Microvision Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “We have created a unique and engaging presentation for attendees which is sure to drive awareness of the product’s key features and benefits. We look forward to introducing the product in additional customer channels during 2010, with a planned Microvision direct campaign in the U.S. targeted for March.”

2. Last night, Microvision was at the CES media event called “CES Unveiled”. Over 800 media attended to get their first peak at some of the top innovations being exhibited at CES. SHOWWX was awarded a 2010 CES Innovations Honoree Award in the mobile accessories category, and as a result they garnered a lot of attention from the press. At times there were twenty people deep in front of Microvision demo area. According to CES there are over 6000 registered media coming to CES, so on the media front Microvision will be very busy and expects to get extensive media coverage. Today Microvision will be finishing the build-up of their tradeshow booth and add final touches to their presentations for the week. Expect to see both video and photos posted at Microvision blog at The Displayground...

http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

Quirky, innovative gadgets have chance to shine at CES...
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/life-tech/uncategorized/2010/01/quirky-innovative-gadgets-have-chance-to-shine-at-ces/

Media coverage at CES 2010...
http://www.tommerritt.com/?p=1244&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

http://www.golem.de/1001/72206.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkOILshW8Cs

http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg

CES 2010 Expo is conducting an on-line contest named “Last Gadget Standing” and Microvision’s laser PicoP projector SHOWwx is currently the front runner among the top 25 contestants. If you’ll be in Las Vegas this week, raise your hand — to help crown SHOWwx as the “Last Gadget Standing” on Saturday, 10:30 a.m., Jan. 9, in Room N255-257, in the Las Vegas Convention Center’s North Hall.

http://lastgadgetstanding.com/ballot-box/

Here's the link to a brief interview with Alexander Tokman. Topics include CES 2010, the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector and PicoP® embedded technology...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTvhwr8nTSM

Recommendation: Maintain long position with our core stock holding and add at prices below $3.48.

Apple [AAPL]: Maintain [net] long position with our options income strategy. However, keep an eye for the next resistance level at $215 on the chart.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aapl&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358

Emerging Markets ETF [EEM]: Maintain [net] long position with our options income strategy. However, keep an eye for breakout from the triple top formation at $42 on the chart.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=eem&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358

Our current Model Portfolio is cautiously bullish and is 50% invested in stocks and options... with the rest in cash. There is no need for further diversification at this time.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Personal Mobile TV/Projectors

It is my belief that in the coming short years all sorts of video devices and services will dominate our communications, collaboration, networking, entertainment and learning world… and smartphones, mobile TVs and pico projectors will play a major role.

Mobile TVs for business or personal entertainment are no more a vision of the future… but indeed the reality of the future that is already here.

This is what ABIresearch has to say...

“The mobile TV market is a dynamically evolving convergence of the media, mobile communications, and consumer electronics industries. It consists of a global ecosystem of content providers, service providers and retailers, network operators, and network and device equipment vendors. The mobile TV ecosystem collectively provides an end-to-end, information and entertainment (“infotainment”) service over wireless networks to end-users in mobile environments. The mobile TV market has tremendous long-term promise as a next-generation infotainment experience. It will emerge over the next few years to grow to a value of more than $50 billion by 2013.”

Here’s the link to a reasearch report by ABIresearch...
http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1000842-Mobile+Broadcast+Video+Services

Free mobile TV [on a cell phone] is very popular in many countries in the Asia/Pacific region, specifically Japan and South Korea. However, despite the large number of viewers, these advertiser-supported offerings have problems generating sufficient revenues… but that is not going to change the eventual adoption of mobile TV by the millions.

Currently, mobile TV in the US is not as poplar as it is Asia/Pacific region. Any new effort to promote Mobile TV is likely to run into skepticism, in view of the adoption rate for subscription mobile TV so far and competition. MobiTV Inc., a company based in Emeryville, Calif., has been offering a service that uses conventional cellphones.

MobiTV has around 8 million mobile users. Flo TV, a new startup by Qualcomm, has not disclosed the number of mobile users. MobiTV uses a carrier's data network; Flo TV, a television spectrum and is considered as the desirable technology.

Mobile TV Has Bright Future

As it is with any new technology or service, the product must first find the need and then fulfill it in the most compelling and cost effective way. Here are four very powerful consumers need that, when marketed strategically, can change the mobile TV adoption here in the US and globally…

1. Demand for Mobile TV:

Every survey of mobile TV viewers that I’ve seen lists sports as one of the most popular categories. There are a huge number of sports fans around the world, obviously, and most — if not all — prefer to watch events live.

It’s a major reason why some people subscribe to mobile TV.

ESPN has become a mobile information powerhouse, including transmitting some 63 million mobile alerts every month and receiving more than nine million unique viewers on its mobile Web site, whose traffic is increasing 78 percent annually, according to FierceMobileContent.com

Here’s the link…

http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/story/espn-opens-its-mobile-playbook/2009-08-31?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal

Smartphones are responsible for 70 percent of the mobile Web traffic, with BlackBerrys at the top of the list, the article says. But the Apple iPhone also represents a major opportunity. To this, now you can add the Qualcomm’s FLO TV available today [November 13th] at Amazon, Best Buy, Radio Shack and other select retailers. Just in case you missed the recent buzz about Qualcomm’s FLO TV, it is a pocket-sized personal mobile TV that is strictly for watching TV on the go.

FLO TV Personal Television, as the product is called, is expected to be offered by retailers this holiday season at a suggested price of $250. Qualcomm also will offer its own programming service, with packages expected to cost $5 to $15 a month.

This is what CES 2010 write-up says about Qualcomm's FLO TV...

"Qualcomm’s FLO handheld television offers users instant access to live and time-shifted content, including CBS Mobile, CNBC, Comedy Central, Fox News, MSNBC, MTV, NBC 2Go and Nickelodeon. The $250 device weighs just over five ounces and features a 3.5-inch QVGA touch-screen display."

"Pro: FLO TV renders high-quality video without streaming, buffering, or downloading by tapping into an advanced national mobile television network. The FLO also features a long-life battery that provides over five hours of viewing time and approximately 300 hours on standby."

"Con: The FLO will most likely appeal only to television addicts. In addition, the handheld TV is competing against cheaper portable DVD players and netbooks capable of streaming Hulu and other digital content."

"Recommendation: Flo is the perfect choice for individuals who prefer to watch high-quality videos and live television shows without buffering delays."

Mobile TV is Huge Opportunity… but there are challenges:

2. Free Mobile TV:

Free mobile TV that is financially supported by advertising may help with the adoption rates. However, there is a strong case in favor of “pay for content” mobile TV…

John Zehr, ESPN’s digital media senior vice president of product and product development, views cellular “as a major growth area for us, and importantly, people seem more likely to pay for content on mobile than they are for the PC, so that opens up additional opportunities.”

John Fletcher, an analyst at the market-research firm SNL Kagan, estimates MobiTV subscribers will reach seven million this year, or about 2% of all U.S. cellphone users. He estimates FLO will have about 350,000 users, or a fraction of a percent.

Mr. Fletcher notes that Americans have tended to shy away from buying conventional portable TVs, which have the advantage of free content over FLO's paid offering.

But Bill Stone, FLO TV's president, says it offers an array of content that is available on cable TV but not over-the-air broadcasts. A bigger hurdle, he argues, is that people simply aren't aware of its offerings. By going direct to the consumer, FLO TV has "a lot more control over our destiny and our messaging," Mr. Stone said.

3. Dedicated Mobile TV:

One advantage for a dedicated device is that TVs tend to be a shared resource where cellphones are seen as personal, Mr. Stone added. Parents and kids, might hand a TV back and forth as different kinds of shows air, he said.

Qualcomm, though now known for chips, has had forays in hardware before. The San Diego-based company offered its own cellphones early in its history. Last November, Qualcomm announced that it had developed a design for a home computing device that uses its cellphone chips rather than PC components.

Now consider this…

A personal TV with 3.5 inch diagonal screen is great for personal viewing on the go and its dedicated feature also allows it to be shared between parents and kids, for example. However, the creator at Qualcomm may not realize the bigger picture impact of this dedicted Peronal TV on the traditional TVs in a household… if and when a laser pico projector is embedded for large screen HD viewing.

Can you imagine the impact of this tiny dedicated Personal TV/Projector that can offer all the functionality of a traditional large screen TV plus gives you mobility, transferability, private and public viewing option and at lower cost of overall ownership… that is cheaper to own and cheaper to operate.

Companies that manufacture large screen LCD and Plasma TVs should not only be concerned but really worry about their future. I don’t think these TV and glass plate manufacturers realize the future impact on their business model from faster adoption rates of dedicated mobile TVs that have embedded HD laser pico projectors.

4. Low Energy Cost of Operating Mobile TV:

Another aspect of dedicated Personal TV/Projector is the low power requirement of less than 5watts. PicoP display engine embedded in all things digital and built into Personal TVs and projectors may just extend our resources [financial and natural] and save the planet Earth from slow death. For example, the biggest energy guzzlers on this planet are big screen TVs.

News from October, 2009 says it all…

California appears poised to be first to ban power-guzzling big-screen TVs
The LosAngeles Times
By Marc Lifsher
October 14, 2009

“Reporting from Sacramento - The influential lobby group Consumer Electronics Assn. is fighting what appears to be a losing battle to dissuade California regulators from passing the nation's first ban on energy-hungry big-screen televisions.”

Here’s the link to the news…
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bigtvs14-2009oct14,0,4908205.story

The energy problem is not just in California… it’s a world-wide problem that needs addressing now before the planet destroys itself with too much “carbon footprint” or due to lack of “energy” to fuel and feed the world’s 6 billion population. Energy conservation, in a big way, is coming soon to every single US state… and it’s just the matter of time. Electric brown-outs and rationing is in our near future... that is if we, as a nation, do not make an aggressive and collective effort to conserve.

Talking about conservation...

The use of PicoP display engines in dedicated Personal TVs and projectors that give us high definition; large screen; always in focus display at a fraction of power [less than 5watts] may just be the answer to our worldwide energy problem… where a billion or so TVs suck the energy out of planet in exchange for a few hours of wide screen HD entertainment.

I’m sure you will agree that Microvision’s PicoP display technology is disruptive [of a mega proportion] and of a nature that could cause dramatic shift in “technology paradigm” and the “social paradigm” around the world.

Specifically, for the third world countries, for example, the technology paradigm shift would be…

“20inch energy guzzling TVs replaced with a Personal TV/Projector with external speakers, at HD resolution image projection of up to 80 inches on any surface…always in focus…at miniscule power usage of less than 5watts… and at about $599 US dollars.”

The Personal TV/Projector market in the developing countries is over 1 billion worldwide with an adoption rate ten times bigger than you can hope for the embedded Mobile phone market. Consider this…

• Total population of India and China is over 2.8 billion and growing. Considering an average household size of 5 [for India] and 4 [for China] you have about 650 million households. Ironically, the current Mobile phone market in India and China is also about 700 million. Assuming that the middle-class [only] can afford a Mobile phone then there are 700 million households that fall in the middle class category in India and China.

• Assuming that a household that can afford a mobile phone can certainly afford [and own] a Television. Therefore, in India and China there are at least 700 million TVs. The middle class in India and China is growing at a 10% rate per year. To this growth, you add the rest of the third world and Eastern European countries [for 300 million TVs] and you have potentially 1 billion TVs market world-wide that is looking for low power consuming, high resolution and large screen experience of a Personal TV/Projector.

If Microvision [and an OEM partner like Qualcomm] can mass produce a Personal TV/Projector with external speakers, at up to 80inch projection at HD resolution and consume no more than 5watts of power… you have a billion households worldwide as your potential customers… with an adoption rate of ten times higher than that of PicoP embedded Mobile phone. This is a huge market with tremendous financial rewards for the slow and steady hand that can deliver on the promise of Personal TV/Projector to the energy starved world of ours.

Not only that, the low power requirement of the Personal TV/Projector may just extend our resources [financial and natural] and save the planet earth from slow death.

Unlike the US and other western countries, electric power in highly populated countries like India, China, Eastern Europe and other third world countries is in extreme short supply. Not everyone has electricity and those that do have… face constant brown-outs and rationing. With the world energy supply dwindling, and costs rising dramatically, the electricity is a precious commodity.

Here’s a wish list Personal TV/Projector based on Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine…

Personal Mobile TV/Projector Model 60:

FEATURES:

• Low power requirement… less than 5watts for Personal TV/Projector

• DVD quality display larger than on a 60″ widescreen TV

• Easy setup — just plug, load and play

• No focus adjustment required

• Built-in handle and carrying case included

The ultimate Personal TV/Projector that delivers all the big-screen drama, sound and excitement you desire — just plug, load and play.

It works with any blank wall or screen and projects DVD movies larger than on a 60-inch widescreen TV.

Model 60 sets up easily— all you need is an electrical outlet. There are no additional cables or equipment to hook up. It features a convenient strap and soft, cushioned carrying case so you can take the show on the road. And, it delivers natural colors and bright, vibrant images with 1-chip, MEMS Laser technology.

It displays a 60-inch, widescreen image from just 5 feet away, or a 100-inch image from just 8 feet away.

SELLING FEATURES: Low power, high definition, always –in-focus, rich colors, short throw ratio, fast refresh, and wide screen multi-media experience.

The worldwide market for such a low power consuming laser based Personal Mobile TV/Projector is huge.

Microvision and Qualcomm have the technology and supply chain partners up and down the line. All they need is the vision and resolve to aggressively work together to pursue this market themselves or do it in collaboration with their global distribution and OEM partners.

While you are thinking about it...
Please go and vote your 25 votes, as many times as you like, for Microvision’s SHOWwx at the CES 2010 contest.

Here’s the link...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1297#comments

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage with Report (Part 2)

This post is the continuation of Part 1...

Pricing Strategy for PicoP Projector SHOWwx:

I see two huge markets for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx...

• The after market... that consists of over a billion of laptops, smartphones, DMPs and camcorders that already exist worldwide.

• The value add market... that consists of over a billion of low power mobile TV/Projectors for the third world countries, gaming projection devices, information Kiosks, projection billboards, video infomercial boxes, etc.

The After Market:
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx, you need to first consider billions of existing electronic devices that can utilize the added projection functionality for a decent price. SHOWwx is a standalone plug and play accessory that could be sold as such for premium prices in the after market... just like the after market for car accessories. Currently, the after market for pico projector accessory consists of more than 1 billion existing digital devices... over 700 million laptops, over 300 million smartphones, over 300 million DMPs and over 200 million camcorders.

The after market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product like SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. For starters, just think about over a billion laptops and smartphones that are out there... ready and willing. The owners of such laptops and smartphones are mostly professionals and can easily absorb [and justify] the added cost... as price of added projection functionality that improves productivity, communication, collaboration, and infotainment. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, SHOWwx can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit after market at a decent ASP of say $495... And offer 35% commission to its resale channel partners.

The Value Added Market:
In the near future, dedicated Mobile TV/Projectors will make a big splash in the personal and public viewing of media content… both in real time, a well as, for time shifted mode. Accessory pico projector SHOWwx is a natural companion to mobile TV to start with and can also be embedded when the champion OEM like Qualcomm realizes the true potential of a mobile TV/Projector combo. Mobile TV/Projector for the bedroom is a huge captive market of over a billion households around the world.

Over a billion households in energy starved Asian and East European countries are potential customers for low power mobile TV/Projector combo that can be used for personal or public viewing of media content … with the flexibility of connecting the accessory pico projector to other digital devices when a need arises to do so.

As you can see, the value added market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product that includes the projection functionality of SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, the value added product can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit markets at an ASP [to Microvision] of say $195. Since a champion OEM partner is embedding the PicoP display engine into the consumer product, there is no commissions involved.

Pricing Strategy for Embedded PicoP Display Engine:
Now let’s talk about the pricing and marketing strategy for the embedded PicoP display engine for the new consumer product cycle...

For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for PicoP display engines, it is a gross mistake to use the pricing model that’s more applicable to “touch screens” for smartphones... like Oppenheimer has done in their Report. Touch screen is not an accessory for the host digital device... it is a component. And as a component it could sit on the shelf for years until an OEM champions the technology and adopts the said component in the future models as an enhancement.

If a component reduces the cost or adds to the value perception of the added functionality... it will be adopted quicker and may even command a decent price such as is the case with touch screens. I’m surprised that it took so long for the touch screens to become common place─ because human prefer video over other means of communication... and touch screens is indeed the [visual and touch] man/machine interface in smartphones.

Let’s first review the current status.

This is what I see…

Currently there is more demand than supply for the laser PicoP projector SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine. At first blush, that is a good enough reason to command a premium price compared to the competition... assuming there was something that the competition had to offer.

However, it is important to investigate why the demand is high. With little digging, and snooping around, you will see that high demand is directly related to the higher standards of SHOWwx: image quality; large size projection; vivid bright colors; always-in-focus on any projected surface; small physical size and longer battery run features. This is the reason number one for commanding premium prices for laser based PicoP display engines and projectors… and that is today, tomorrow and to the day until supply catches-up with demand.

Quality always comes at a cost. You want quality… then you pay for quality. As they say: “you can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.” In a nutshell, quality at premium price mantra applies to PicoP display engine pricing strategy today, tomorrow and every day… as long as the competition has nothing better to offer.

Another way to arrive at product pricing is by placing a dollar value on replacement cost of products eliminated by your product and then add to this the intrinsic value of your product’s other differentiating features.

Here’s an example of pricing strategy for both the SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine…

a. PicoP can replace a lamp based projector for small meetings and presentations… lamp based projector replacement cost $900.

b. PicoP allows impromptu presentations in bright and vivid colors and always stays in focus with 8 font readability in normal light conditions… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]

c. PicoP in the bedroom to watch movies, shows and other streaming videos on the ceiling with no concern for projector location, has short throw ratio from bed to ceiling and always stays in focus… replacement cost of TV on the ceiling $ 900 and $500 in install cost.

d. PicoP can project 200” image size under certain lighting conditions like watching movies outdoors while camping, or with friends and neighbors on a dark summer night … feature value $400 as compared to the competition that is if you are willing to accept small size and washed out color projection.

e. PicoP projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]

f. PicoP projects higher definition images [848x480]… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]

g. PicoP projects always-in-focus images regardless of the distance or movement of the projector… priceless. This feature is the competition killer. Let’s face it, as an example, would you buy a car that needs starting again every time you stopped in traffic or at a red light?

Right, I didn’t think so.

You see, in case of pico projectors from the competition... you need to re-focus the image every time you move or want to change the size of projected image. It’s not quite like re-starting your car engine every time you stop in traffic... but you know what I mean.

h. PicoP projector gives you twice the projection time per battery charge as compared to the competition… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].

i. PicoP projector used as a mobile TV [with a set-top box] saves you money on energy usage over its operating life [consuming less than 5 watts per hour] … feature value $1,200 in energy savings over a 10 year period

k. PicoP projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source… priceless or replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].

Well, there you have it...

When you add the value of your product’s unique functionality to money savings from product features, plus the value of improved quality of experience, the total value proposition becomes worth lot more than the $15 [in wholesale] that Oppenheimer projects as the ASP for embedded PicoP display engine for 2016.

Oppenheimer analysts estimates for ASP [average sale price] from FY 2010 thru FY 2016 are absurd; considering the fact that pico projection is not only a product [as in stand alone accessory unit] but it will also open-up new applications for the host [ when embedded]; application that never existed before. Pico projectors, as standalone accessory, will drive new sales in the non-existent pico projector market and sell more of the host product [with a service contract] when embedded to offer the added pico projection functionality.

That’s the way most all of us expect the market for pico projection to develop... and not the other way around where the host decides “if and when” to offer embedded pico projectors. Do you really think the pico projection market is going to sit on its ass [et] and wait for the host to get-off its ass [et] to let the market have the opportunity to embrace and experience all that pico projection has to offer.

Almost all mobile phone carriers offer a free phone in exchange for a service contract that legally binds the subscriber for two or three year service. Razor companies like Gillette offer free Razors in the hopes of selling you the blades for the rest of your life. More and more companies are adopting this business model... if and when their product lends itself to a perpetual service contact.

As this business model grows in popularity, innovative financial models will evolve, as these companies will need to make upfront capital investments and recover it from customers over many years. This business model will embrace PicoP projection like glove to hand and could be the game changer for the first adopter. Partnering with Microvision will be more like the partnership of champions... rather than Microvision looking for a strong OEM champion for its technology.

It’s not about technology... it’s about consumer experience and perception of quality and value.

Purchase orders from distributors, OEMs and mobile phone carriers are solid validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s laser PicoP projector.

Multiple features and functionalities of exceptional quality from one tiny PicoP display engine; will command a price that certainly will be lot more that the $15 in 2016.

In closing and at the risk of being redundant, I would repeat what I said before...

“You can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.”

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/