Thursday, December 31, 2009

Microvision: Osram Shipping Green Lasers? (Updated)

It seems pretty quite just before the CES 2010. And that could lull us into believing another missed schedule somewhere along the line.

However, that is not the case. Looks like there is a storm brewing in the background?

There is a lot of activity going-on at Microvision. Some of it is related to preparation for CES… but there is lot more activity in preparation for the release of SHOWwx into the US market.

That obviously raises the question of green lasers. If I were to summarize every thing that I have learned by kicking tires, I would say…

“There is confluence of comments made by various individuals in and around the Microvision supply chain that indicates improving yields at Osram.”

Is Osram Shipping Green Lasers to Microvision?

The answer to that question is obviously YES.

However, when it comes to improving yields for green lasers from Osram... you have to first re-set your perspective before looking at the answer.

If you are an optimist, you look at the answer as “glass half full”.

If you are a pessimist, you look at the answer as “glass half empty”.

The third category would be cautiously optimist, and as such you would look at the answer as “glass slowly filling”

As I have stated before, I’m a die hard optimist. However, I continue to be cautious. So the answer is…

“Yields at Osram are improving and there are reasons to believe that we have some good news coming up on the horizon.”

Hopefully, we will hear about it soon. And that surely will calm the retail investor nerves. Currently, the MVIS stock price reflects the most pessimistic view of green laser shipments from Microvision supply chain partners. Having said that, here’s the scoop on green laser shipments from Osram...

“Osram is shipping green lasers to Microvision and ramping-up the numbers with improving yields”

Q: When did the shipments start?
A: Don’t know for sure... could be as early as mid October.

Q: What are the shipment quantities?
A: Don’t know for sure, but the initial numbers were good enough for institutional investors to come to the table and put-up over $30 million dollars in secondary equity financing over the Thanksgiving week last month.

Q: What are the ramp-up production rates?
A: That’s perhaps the most well kept secret of them all when it comes to Microvision. However, the overall quantities are improving and good enough to get past the institutional investor due diligence process. In my book, what’s good for institutional money is good enough for me.

Q: Would there be an official Microvision announcement?
A: Yes, I’m counting on that in the next few weeks or less. It may not be what the pessimists want to hear... but it certainly would please the cautiously optimists.

The diode green laser work is moving along well and we are looking at 9 to 12 months more before acceptable power levels of 60mw to 100mw become a reality beyond the labs.

Disclaimer:

"My validation is the confluence of comments made by various individuals in and around the Microvision supply chain. Please do your own due diligence, just like I have, before making any investment decisions."

When I was a child, my grandmother always used to say...

"Son, never look at the gift horse in the mouth… take it with a smile for whatever it is worth".

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/