Pico Projectors Hit the Commercial Market

That is the title of a trade journal article published by Electronics Weekly…

Pico projectors hit the commercial market
Richard Wilson
Tuesday 16 March 2010 11:18

Pico projectors are set for a massive jump in shipments during the next four years as they hit a number of commercial markets including mobile phones, according to analyst iSuppli.

Shipments will rise to more than three million units in 2013, up from less than 50,000 units in 2009.

In the middle of last year, Texas Instruments demonstrated 3D-ready projectors and lamp-free data projectors based on the company's DLP chip technology.

The chip uses an array of millions of micro-mirrors which can be switched at high speed, which enables the simultaneous display of left-eye and right-eye images required for the brain to create a 3D picture.

It is the rapid refresh rate of the DLP chip which supports 3D viewing.

According to TI, as many as 30 manufacturers will have projectors on the market soon, including BenQ, InFocus, LightSpeed, Mitsubishi, Optoma, Sharp and ViewSonic.

Continues…

*****

After reading this article, I could not help wonder if this was a trade journal article on the subject of pico projectors or an infomercial for Texas Instruments, Samsung, Mitsubishi and other advertisers of Electronics Weekly.

First, here’s the link to the article that I’m talking about…
http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/03/16/48208/pico-projectors-hit-the-commercial-market.htm

This article is so superficial in its coverage that it not only lacks depth but also the breadth in its coverage. What surprised me most were the many inaccuracies in the article and shockingly there was no mention of Microvision that launched the world’s first laser based PicoP™ projector SHOWwx in September of 2009… and most recently, on March 8th, Microvision started selling their laser based pico projector to the US customers.

Don’t you think it is shocking to see that the main author [Richard Wilson] and iSuppli projection analyst Sanju Khatri wrote this article about pico projectors but completely ignored the existence of Microvision and its laser pico projector SHOWwx? I’m sure you know, like the millions of Internet savvy global consumers do, that Microvision’s laser pico projector SHOWwx won the CES 2010 “Last Gadget Standing” award in January… and the MacWorld 2010 “Best of Show” award in February.

Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP Display Engine technology exists today and beats the competition from 3M [LED/LcoS technology] and TI [LED/DLP technology] in most all respects.

First take a look at quality of the projected images from SHOWwx and then look at its specifications… and you will see why Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP projector is so much better than the competition.

Here’s the link to SHOWwx video clip…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0

Here’s the side by side comparison with the competition…
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png

Here’s the list of differentiating features of SHOWwx…
http://www.microvision.com/showwx/specs.html

In the embedded market space, I don’t see any of the competitors coming close to Microvision in this race… not even Taxes Instruments with their power guzzling million-micromirrors based pico projector. The likes of 3M and Displaytech will never get down to acceptable levels of size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost requirements… as they will have the “gating issues”. Pico projectors that use million micromirrors or LcoS panels [with lenses and optics] just can’t cut the mustard in terms of physical size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost.

I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection space... like Displaytech with FLCOS, 3M with LcoS, and TI with DLP technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

Microvision’s laser PicoP Display Engine will lead the rat pack because of the following:

• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) in the standalone version will make the competition at par with Microvision’s SHOWwx... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine produces virtually zero heat due to lasers being used as the light source and also due to on/off switching of lasers during dark image segments. Competing pico projection technologies of others produce enough waste heat to cook eggs... sunny side up for sure.

• “A wide angle view means that Microvision’s PDE can show a wider screen at closer distance!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's PDE you get…

"A wider image [80 inch from 7 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus."

• Laser based PicoP Display Engines will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

• Microvision’s PDE has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based PicoP Display Engine do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.

• Microvision’s PDE can go from 12” to 200” diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.

• Microvision’s PDE projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.

• Microvision’ PDE projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.

• Microvision’s PDE has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.

• Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser [G-2000] from Corning.

After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…

"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."

Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/

Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx [and PDEs for embedded applications] with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On Monday March 8, 2010, 4:20 pm EST

Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010

Company Announces U.S. Introduction of SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector, Availability of Second Commercial Supply for Green Laser, New Purchase Orders, and Additions to Management Team

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2009 and its plans for 2010.

Continued…

*****

Here’s the link to the full earnings report…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100308006744&newsLang=en

Last three years, especially the year 2009, has been the most frustrating period for Microvision corporate management… mainly due to delays caused by over optimistic green laser production schedule by Corning. However, after 30 months of delay due to technical and production problems, the issues are finally behind us and Microvision has officially launched the world first laser based PicoP projector in the US today.

After the market close on March 8th, Microvision management presented the quarterly/yearly earnings report. After looking at the details of SHOWwx laser PicoP projector launch from this morning and then listing to earnings conference call, I could not help but feel that today is the day when Microvision really went public with an IPO.

Microvision: Goes Public with an IPO… March 8th 2010

Now that I have your attention, consider this…

If Microvision were to have an IPO right after the SHOWwx launch in the US today followed by a very bullish earnings conference call… the IPO price would be more like $20 if not higher.

We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.

Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, huge backlog, ramping-up production forecasts, improving margins, and glowing recognition by industry; like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.60.

Looks like the shorts have you all spooked, doubting yourself, and in knots over in-decision.

One of the issues, if you would call it that, the shorts will “harp on” and have you believe is about low future revenues and insignificant margins.

Well, let’s set the record straight here, shall we…

Many folks don’t realize that the green laser unit forecasts Alex presented at the CC; they do not include any green laser contribution from Osram. Osram green lasers have been validated but production quantities are not yet shipping in any significant quantities… and as such are not part of the unit number forecast presented at the conference call.

Osram green lasers are the surprise factor; both in terms of higher production volumes─ higher than what Alex has projected from Corning and dramatic overall cost reduction due to cheaper Osram green lasers.

The good news─ in the short term, that Alex talked about in his closing remarks, in my opinion, is all about Osram starting to ship production quantities of green lasers as early as the last week of March. Osram green lasers are much cheaper and have much better yields. That’s the surprise factor that Alex alluded to in his closing remarks at the CC.

Be aware of the competitors, shorts and unscrupulous stock traders; when they bash the SHOWwx revenue and profit margins to justify their agenda… whatever form or shape it takes.

Consider this…

• Profit margins on SHOWwx that have been shipped are better than what you may think [or are made to believe] by just looking at 4th Qtr “product sale revenue” vs. the “product COG” numbers. First, the initial batch of product shipped is very small… few hundreds at the most, and that is not a large enough sample to base future trends.

Second, the cost of about 50 or so demo units in the hands and homes of Microvision executives has cost but no revenue. That hurts the revenue numbers and skews the COG numbers as much higher than they really are.

• Profit margins and revenues will dramatically increase─ over and above what they truly are at present, as soon as Osram starts shipping their better and cheaper green lasers in production quantities… as early as the end of March.

• Profit margins are dramatically higher [over 300%] on the Limited Edition SHOWwx that are for sale in the US today.

• Profit margins are substantially higher [over 100%] on the Commercial Edition SHOWwx that will be for sale in the US on March 24th.

There is no better way to say it, than to say it as it really is…

“Alex Tokman, in his closing remarks at the CC, alluded to two pieces of good news coming up: one in the short term [like in weeks] and the other in the mid term."

The short term good news, in my opinion, is about Osram shipping production quantities of their green lasers to Microvision… and that will more than double the forecasted SHOWwx quantities that can be shipped at much better profit margins.

In closing…

Be aware of the competitors, shorts, manipulators, and the unscrupulous operators that would like you to believe that the future revenues and profit margins as insignificant… because, by having you believe that and then manipulate you to sell would serve their agenda to short Microvision.

So why don’t you guys just wake-up, believe in yourselves and stop playing into the hands of unscrupulous shorts.

Be an educated investor and go about making some serious money in the near future.

Stop playing for nickels and dimes… only kids do that with too much time on their hands.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Stock at the End of its Transition Phase

Every growth stock falls into 1 of 3 categories…

1. The Romance Phase

2. The Transition Phase

3. The Reality Phase

Most growth stocks tend to pass through three phases of growth… romance, transition and reality. By knowing which phase a stock is in, you can quickly determine whether the profits are just beginning… or the well is drying up fast. Needless to say, this can make the decision to buy, sell or hold significantly easier. And its decisions like these that will make or break your success in investing.

You may say that in case of Microvision, the romance is gone and the transition is at an end, and the reality of situation [green laser issue] has become clear. And in your opinion in this phase, the company’s entire financial future depends on the availability and the cost of green lasers. Since the company has made no effort to incorporate any other type of light source to power its PicoP Display Engine, the core of its entire product line, it is fair to say that Microvision will thrive or perish by the green laser sword.

Some of you have lived through the romance phase, which peaked in year 2000 with the MVIS stock trading well over $63… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology. Those that did not cash out after the romance phase, the most profitable phase, and are still holding the MVIS stock and they have battle scars to prove their passage through the three phases of growth in the life of a company. Now we are at the tail end of the transition phase, when blemishes appear and public’s perception of the company starts to diminish.

If you feel that we all have made a mistake in believing and staying too long in MVIS stock and are in the same boat at this point in time? We all have, for whatever the reason, stayed little too long in this stock and are now paying the price of dealing with uncertain future and muted enthusiasm of a product launch… that revolves around a core component from green laser supply chain! If that’s what you believe, and can think with a cool head and not point fingers, then continue reading, as I would like to share some facts, figures and analysis?

Microvision story is not over yet. It is, however, certainly the end of the romance phase and we are now successfully transitioning to the reality phase. If you dig deeper, you will find that it is just the beginning that is based on reality of Microvision’s financial and cost structure and will resume its momentum to renewed success based on improving availability and cheaper cost of green lasers… the Achilles heel to Microvision’s financial success. This may sound like a wish full conclusion to Microvision saga… but fortunately that happens to be the conclusion of my analysis based on findings of facts and figures.

So stay tuned and let’s continue with our analysis…

The Romance Phase: is the most profitable phase by far and is the one that you’ll want to focus on… that is, if you were lucky enough to be around during the early life stages of Microvision in year 2000. It’s in this phase that a fortune can be amassed very quickly, long before most investors are even aware that the company exists. Yet at some point, the stock’s price and its Relative Performance (RP) line will reach all-time highs. This tells you the Romance in the stock has peaked. This is when most analysts, if there are any following the stock, would recommend selling it. In case of MVIS stock, the first Romance peak took place in March of year 2000 when the stock traded in the $63 plus range.

The second Romance peak took place in June of 2007 when the management announced “Agreement with Motorola”. At the height of this Romance peak, the MVIS stock traded in the $6 range. It happened too quick [in less than two months] and the RP line indicated that it had not peaked and there was lot more momentum left for the stock to go still higher... to over $10 or so we believed. Also, the pico projector sector was just in initial stages of taking-off... as we know is happening right now. It took us a few months to realize the issues with SHG green laser technology and the resulting cost and supply constraints.

In hindsight, we may call it our greed that made us stay in this stock too long or may be it was our collective belief that there was more good news to come. How could it all start, take-off and crash in less than three months? Well, it did and the reasons are too well known to all of us so I won’t repeat them here.

The Transition Phase: can last from few months to several years. In case of Microvision, the Transition Phase started in September of 2007 when I first wrote about the technical issues that Corning was having with their SHG green lasers. This is when the blemishes appeared and the public’s perception of the stock started to diminish. It’s at this stage in the life of a company, like Microvision, that the company’s technology may fumble, the earnings may stumble [if there were any], the cash flow may turn negative [or cash burn may accelerate], the financing may disappear, the flaws in business growth strategy start showing-up in negative revenue growth [or as loss of revenue] and other issues start popping-up such as legal, financial, and key employee departures, etc.

Sooner or later the issues will get resolved and the company’s earnings will grow again… but only after the stock has bottomed and then, after an excruciating period, has started its next major advance.

Now we are at the tail end of the “Transition Phase”. During the Transition Phase, the blemishes [like technical problems with green lasers] appeared and public’s perception of the company diminished to such low levels as to bring the MVIS stock down to $0.80 in March 2009.

Many of the red-hot lovers who romanced MVIS on the way up have left the stock, and it's their selling pressures, driven by reduced perceptions, that have been pushing the MVIS stock down… and the bear market of 2008 hasn't helped, either. Every time a diehard long who had sworn to hold the stock forever gives up in disgust, the stock is pushed a little lower.

It's not the company's fault that Corning had repeatedly failed to deliver on the SHG green laser, a core component for making laser PicoP projectors. If the delay was reasonable, and not the 30 months, the MVIS stock would have traded rationally, based on earnings from a potentially gigantic global market. This stock would have been nowhere near as low as the 80 cents last March, and it would be certainly traded higher now than it currently is… at $2.69 and excruciating to hold it at this level.

But stock prices are determined by investors. And investors are people. People who fall-in and fall-out of love! People who buy with visions of profits and sell in disgust when their dreams are dashed! People who drive stocks to irrational heights and then sell them to irrational depths! That's what makes investing a challenge ... and very profitable, if you know what you're doing.

The Reality Phase: With Romance gone and the transition at end, the reality of the situation has become clear. In this final phase, the Reality Phase, the company could have taken one of the two roads… the road to renewed success… or the road to oblivion.

Microvision has struggled for over the last 30 months to deal with the core component─ green laser─ supply issue during the Transition Phase. All through this phase, Microvision managed to stay funded and fully staffed to aggressively pursue product development and continue with research to enlarge its intellectual property rights.

Finally, Corning has resolved its green laser yield issues and is now ramping production. Osram is coming on-line rapidly to become the second source of SHG green lasers… with a better, cheaper and higher yielding product. During the Transition Phase, Microvision management made some hard decisions to control cost, proactively raise funding─ even though it was considered unpopular with the investors, and aggressively pursued R&D to enlarge its IP portfolio and took measures to protect its intellectual property.

Over this last cycle, in my opinion, the MVIS stock price has bottomed at $1.96. The Transition Phase is over and the Reality Phase has kicked-in, or it will on March 8th after the earnings conference call.

It’s then; when analysis of the stock should become a little easier for investors who base their decisions on fundamentals. If the company's sales and earnings are growing, as I expect them to do very rapidly, the stock will rise, too. But it will do it in a far more rational manner, reflecting the reality of the company's sales and earnings growth potential over the next few years.

Before I leave you, consider this…

We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “Validation Phase”. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders─ from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator, represent …

• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.

• Validation of Corning green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.

• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size, always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications, and no waste heat generation.

• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.

• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.

• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments… and the waste heat, hot enough to cook eggs sunny-side-up.

• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 200 issued and filed patents and with many more to come.

• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.

• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.

• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.

• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.

Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.

Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:

First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...

http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf

After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increase in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.

Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…

• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]

• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]

• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units

• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units

• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine

• Revenue: $4 billion

• Net Profit Margin: 40%

• Net Profit: $1.6 billion

• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]

• Interest Expense: $0 million

• Interest Income: $20 million

• Tax: $220million

• Depreciation: non cash and very small

• Amortization: non cash and very small

• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion

• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]

• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company

• Price Per Share: $390 per share

In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 4 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.

Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP Display Engines will be larger than the supply."

This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place [like selling SHOWwx and its derivatives directly to US consumers] that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.

It’s ironic how we as investors act sometimes…

We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.

Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, and recognition by industry like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.69.

What, am I missing something here?

Don't tell me it has something to do with hot milk!

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: You have to Earn Investor Respect

Today is 19th of February and there is no word from Microvision about the March 2010 launch of SHOWwx in the US.

Will this be another missed time line from Microvision?

Perhaps not... but the launch, if it does happen in March, may be nothing more than a token launch at best.

Unless my information is completely out of touch with reality, it seems that the problem may still be the green laser supply from Corning and Osram. I know that quantities are still limited, but don’t you think the management should atleast have the web site, for on-line sales of SHOWwx, up and running by now. At the very least, thousands of VIPs should have heard from Microvision by this time... that is, if the March launch is still on.

It will be interesting to see how Microvision management handles another “token launch” this time around. It has been a very frustrating two and half years now... waiting on green lasers on one hand and some transparency from the management on the other. The patience is running thin... and the well of goodwill and respect for this management is running dry.

Respect takes a long time to build and it's easily destroyed... especially after two and half years of patiently waiting for some straight answers.

When it comes to calculating asset value of a company there are three elements to consider...

• Physical,

• Financial,

• Reputation.

Yes, reputation of a company plays an important role among the Investor community as they pay up for respect, in part because respected companies tend to hold their value longer.

"Respected companies aren't going to fall as far in the bad times, and they come back better," says David Hartzell of Cornell Capital Management.

Defining respect isn't easy. "It's a difficult concept”.

However, there are surveys that clearly show...

“Respected companies have strong management, good governance, valuable products and services, and strong stock returns. They treat their shareholders, customers and employees well. They act ethically. And while some money managers name respect as the first cut in their investment process, others say respect is more often the result of a sound investment process.”

John Roberts, a portfolio manager with Denver Investments, contends that respect answers the question "Is management going to be a good steward of our clients' money?

Over the last two years, Microvision management has done very little to earn the respect from retail and institutional investors... as evident by roller-coaster ride experienced with Microvision stock over this two year period.

Here’s the link to the stock chart...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358

It is sad but what can I say; other than...

“Microvision: You have to Earn Investor Respect”

Anant Goel

[Suggested read, reference article on: “The World's Most Respected Companies” at SmartMoney.com]...
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/The-Worlds-Most-Respected-Companies/?hpadref=1#ixzz0fzDrR3vO

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Missing from Mobile World Congress meet in Barcelona – February 15-18, 2010

Mobile World Congress is being held in Barcelona [Spain] from February 15-18, 2010.

Here’s the link...
http://www.mobileworldcongress.com/sponsors/sponsors.htm

Last year, Microvision was there as one of the exhibitors and got some very good reviews for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx...

http://vimeo.com/3340611

However, this year Microvision is not at the Mobile World Congress meet.

Do you know why?

That’s right... because Vodafone is there as one of the sponsor of this event. And Vodafone is Microvision’s first Mobile Phone Carrier customer.

Here’s the link to the post on this subject...
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-vodafone-is-first-mobile.html

Looks like things are finally coming together as they should be; at this stage of product launch.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman (update)

I’ll be the first one to admit that at times we all fall into this trap of making rash judgment based on who said what where and when.

Given the time for the initial reaction to settle down and with a little bit more patience, today I see, for whatever it is worth, the positive side of the information shared by CEO Alex Tokman at his interview of January 7th. Having reviewed the events over the last twenty days and listening to the interview several times again, I must admit I got the intended message somewhat wrong. If I was given the opportunity to retract my original post, I would probably say things little differently today.

Here’s what I see today…

Over the last twenty days the “perfect storm” has lost strength after we had the opportunity to rationalize events that caused such turmoil in the first place.

On January 11th, I wrote about the “perfect storm” at Microvision in my blog at…
http://www.mirro7.blogspot.com/

In summary what I said…

“What we have seen over the past 48 hours is the “perfect storm” brewing in the future of Microvision. It started with Asia Optical making public comments [as perceived] in the media about TI having the best pico solution for embedded applications. It picked-up more gale force after the in-house staged CEO interview where Alex indicated more delays and future uncertainties. It became a perfect storm of hurricane force magnitude over the PC Magazine review of SHOWwx.”

“Individually these negative issues are easy to deal with because they have a reasonable explanation... and as such may or may not have an impact on the MVIS share price in the short term. However, collectively they are the recipe for a “perfect storm” and may precipitate an investor sell-off first and then look for explanation later... and that could be very damaging to the overall investor psyche.”

Now twenty days after the CEO interview, let’s review the three elements of this perfect storm to see how things stack-up today…

Asia Optical Comments about TI Pico Solution
Asia Optical is a relatively new supply chain partner of Microvision with a relationship that formed just over a year ago. When AO makes comments that favor TI pico solution; it is understandable since Asia Optical has years of existing and ongoing relationship with them. So we can put that aside and consider it a minor twister in the way large corporations stick together and pay more attention to their current revenue source rather than go out of their way to support the business plan of a newcomer [like Microvision] with a glowing future potential.

Granted, that AO could have said something complimentary to TI without stating the “DLP pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency”. When you look at the choice of words that AO used, it is easy to mistakenly take it as saying that DLP pico(TM) solution is the best for embedded applications. However, that is not the case and I don’t see the words of AO saying that either.

First of all, Asia Optical knows that pico(TM) is the registered trade mark of Microvision. And DLP pico solution may not be the best when compared to laser based PicoP solution from Microvision for embedded applications. However, since there are no embedded pico display engines from Microvision to be found on planet earth as yet… and considering the existing pico technologies out there currently, the DLP pico solution is perhaps the most compelling solution etc. etc.

Interview with Microvision CEO Alex Tokman
On January 7th, Alex Tokman gave an interview that was posted at the company’s blog site The Displayground.

Here’s the link to the interview...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

After listening to the CEO interview, I had, just like many others, a mixed bag of reaction…

• The first and foremost was to congratulate the management for taking the bold initiative to communicate with the stakeholders at the blog in such an informal setting. The Displayground has been a leap of faith in the way a corporation, such as Microvision, has embraced the Internet to communicate with its stakeholders.

• Since investors of Microvision, and I’m one of them, have such high expectations of the management, that at first blush the interview looks so stiff and staged. But when you look at the interview again and pay more attention to the subject matter, rather than watch the body language of Alex Tokman, it kind of grows on you.

• Both the timing and the intended [or unintended] information disseminated at this interview left the investors with a perception of further delays in green laser production and also delays in the release of PDE [PicoP Display Engine] evaluation units to OEMs for embedded applications. That in my opinion was the center of this “perfect storm” brewing over at Microvision.

It’s not very often, if ever, that you see the CEO of a company give an informal interview to release information that could have some serious consequences to not only its stock price but also raise questions about future time lines etc. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what this interview did... precipitate a stock sell-off and did some serious damage to the credibility of Microvision management.

First the timing...

The timing of this in-house interview with Microvision CEO couldn’t have been the worst move in the history of Microvision. It tops all the other “blunders” the top Management [past and present] has made over the years. Unfortunately, it effectively neutralized any positive impact of the CES 2010 award that Microvision received as the “Last Gadget Standing” for its SHOWwx projector.

All that reaction was looking at the interview from 20 days ago and making a rash judgment call.

Today, with a bit of patience and reviewing the interview again you will see the positive aspects that you may have missed before. To get the most out of this interview, it is best to listen to it again [a few times] and make sure to keep your skepticism of the management out of the way.

Here we go…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

PC Magazine Review
On January 7th, PC Magazine published their findings of SHOWwx pico projector review. Boy, oh boy! Talk about perfect timing to join in the storm brewing at Microvision.

First, here’s the link...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp

Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.

Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.

When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.

Having realized that, I did some research and wrote a post on the blog…

“PC Magazine Review is Full of Crap, Flawed, and Biased”

Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2010/01/microvision-pc-magazine-review-is-full.html

There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.

In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased.

As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...

http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6w

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related

Or this for the large screen experience…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvbRyYAevQw

Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...

“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.

The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.

While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”

Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+transformed+into+tech+lover+paradise/2417678/story.html

At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.

Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09/and-the-winners-are/

Now you tell me?

Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.

You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.

In closing this post...

The stakes here are very high, and we are worried that Microvision management underestimates the things they need to do, as well as, the things their competitors will do to gain advantage in the pico projector marketplace. Obviously, Microvision management did not see this “perfect storm” coming and apparently had no contingency plan.

However, over the last twenty days, the “perfect storm” has lost strength after we had the opportunity to rationalize events that caused such turmoil in the first place.  Given the time for the initial reaction to settle down and with a little bit more patience, today I see, for whatever it is worth, the positive side of the information shared by CEO Alex Tokman in his interview of January 7th.

I suggest that you also listen to CEO Alex Tokman’s interview again [a few times] with an open mind and without your skepticism of the Microvision management.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Time to Start Accumulating the Stock

It’s time to start accumulating Microvision [Nasdaq: MVIS] stock.

Here’s why…

• Most all the negatives are on the table, including limited production quantities last year in 2009 and going into the first Qtr 2010.

• $31 million additional funding was completed in November 2009 and the associated dilution has already been absorbed.

• Microvision officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.

• Microvision CEO Alex Tokman announced March 2010 as the launch date for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in to the US market. He also indicated that Microvision will sell them from its own corporate website rather than collaborate with an OEM at this time.

You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

• US market is huge and it is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram.

• Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009. With Corning increasing production in March and Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply should improve dramatically.

• With green laser supply continuing to improve over the rest of year 2010, it is just the matter of time that a visionary company like Apple will come waltzing down the aisle to embed Microvision’s PDEs in their smartphones, iPods etc. If it is not Apple initially, it will be someone else… you can bet on that.

• The positives are better defined now than ever before and the management is comfortable with the stated time line.

• Enhanced PDEs, based on second generation green lasers and ASIC, are scheduled to be released to OEMs for embedded applications in early second Qtr of 2010… with possible applications hitting the market place as early as first Qtr 2011.

• Several SHOWwx derivatives and other applications are under “secret” development. I know you are skeptics when it comes to Microvision management. But this time around, consider this, the CEO Alex Tokman got on the tube to make the announcement and that carries a lot more weight in my opinion.

• The management officially launched the SHOWwx marketing campaign just before the CES 2010 and now seems to be gathering momentum.

• The management officially launched the viral marketing campaign by launching the official Blog “The Displayland”.
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

• The PicoP Display Engine is ready to go…evidenced by the PEK developers kit as ready and available for sale.
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/pek.html

• The PicoP projector Display Engine specs and features are several notches above the competition.

• The management officially launched network marketing… by launching dedicated site for PEK tool kit for developers and publicly stating its availability to buy now.

“We believe that the accessory pico projector is just the beginning for the PicoP display engine which could be deployed in a diverse range of applications. For this reason, we are providing PEKs to help prospective customers cultivate new ideas and products.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Features-bw-14001019.html

• One year ago, the management officially announced a $1.5 million funding contract to “Develop High-Definition Prototype Display Engine”. It’s interesting to note that the funding is for the next generation of PicoP Display Engine with HD resolution [1280x720]… while the competition [at HVGA] is still struggling to catch-up with what SHOWwx offers today [848x480]. In technological terms that is over 2 years lead over the competition… that is if they ever find a technology that has no glass ceiling on the resolution without compromising other attributes like power, form factor, brightness and always-in-focus image.

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090114005365&newsLang=en

Finally, after all these years, the management is officially “coming out” swinging when they make a statement like…

“What’s significant about the emerging category is that it’s not just the media that are covering this emerging market. Market and financial analysts see this as a rapidly growing opportunity. According to Chris Chinnock, Insight Media, in a recent article highlighting the various pico projector technologies published by the Society of Information Display, he headlines the article as the Pico Projector Gold Rush. Check out the article (with contributions from a variety of the pico projector players, including Microvision). We do believe ‘there is gold in them there hills!’ And, since we believe we have the BEST offering in this emerging category, we hope to strike the mother load.”

http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=365

Microvision stock seems to have hit bottom; after 15 days of relentless downward spiral caused by the “perfect storm” of January 7th.

I don’t see any further decline on the horizon and will aggressively start accumulating!

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Announces March 2010 Launch of Laser Projector SHOWwx in the US Market

Microvision CEO Alex Tokman announced March 2010 as the launch date for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in to the US market. He also indicated that Microvision will sell them from its own corporate website rather than collaborate with an OEM at this time.

You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

Microvision had officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.

As for the US market, it is huge and is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram. Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009… but with Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply should improve dramatically.

Having said that, the next question that begs answering is the reasons for Microvision selling the SHOWwx into the US market on its own rather than through an OEM?

Here’re some thoughts to ponder…

Years ago Microvision decided to focus on the lasers as the source of light for their PicoP Projectors. By doing so the management embarked on a very complex project that involved a myriad of challenges, issues, risks and problems.

When a problem is fearsomely complex, the best thing you can do is take Thoreau’s advice: “Simplify, simplify, simplify.” At the same time, though, one should remain aware of Einstein’s advice: “Things should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”

It is a reasonable simplification, to reduce all of the big-picture markets for PicoP projectors to the development and marketing of PDE [PicoP Display Engine] to the OEMs, and let the OEMs add frills [and complexity] to arrive at the final consumer product. However, there may be currently an OEM acceptance issue with that approach due to:

• The lack of interest [or vision] on the part of OEMs to embrace the Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine at this stage;

• The potential fear of cannibalization of the DLP based lamp/LED projectors currently sold by the major OEMs;

• The politics of the market place where the competition [like 3M and Texas Instruments] have deeper pockets and well entrenched relationships.

Lack of vision can destroy [albeit slowly] even the mightiest of the companies, for example:

Kodak could have stayed king of the imaging hill, but they chose to ignore digital as a mere fad.

Polaroid went bankrupt and it is widely believed to be the result of the failure of its senior management to anticipate the effect of digital cameras on its film business.

Boeing allowed a labor strike to deprive it of the last good year it will probably enjoy for some time to come.

And poor old Ford may actually have a tough-minded visionary at the helm, but it is an auto manufacturer in a year when that is simply the wrong business to be in.

Can you imagine the fate of the supply chain companies associated with any of the above dinosaurs… well, may be not those of Boeing?

So, any company [like Microvision] that is waiting on the major OEMs [that lack vision] for its market development [and survival] is in it-self lacking vision… by not introducing consumer product(s) that are strategically aligned to the targeted market. Meaning the target market, at this stage, being the “stand alone accessory” PicoP Projector SHOWwx?

I may be wrong, but I get the feeling that Microvision management is not waiting around for the OEMs to make their move; and is approaching the US market for stand alone accessory PicoP projector SHOWwx on its own.

That’s an excellent move considering the relative ease of developing [and servicing] the US market and the pricing advantage of selling directly to consumers at much higher net margins.

There are, however, some considerations that must be addressed seriously before embarking on such a journey. I’m sure Microvision has addressed these at great length and has arrived at its marketing plan for the US. However, we are not privy to Microvision plans so it’s fair to discuss them here in a tone as if something that should be addressed.

Create a 360-degree experience for the consumer:

The PicoP brands [stand alone or embedded] need to match the right product to the right consumers and then connect with them meaningfully at every point of contact. The "360-degree experience" includes everything from packaging, design, and marketing, distribution to after-market support… including programs to help customers discover product benefits, end-of life recycling programs, and user support executed with the care of a concierge service, rather than with the complication and delay of an overwrought bureaucracy.

I wish there was another example besides Apple to demonstrate a successful 360-degree experience, but Apple nails it every time. They do not try to be everything to everybody. Packaging is elegant. The product is beautifully designed. Set-up is simple. Support is available… with room for some improvement here. Messaging is consistent and clear at every touch point.

Pick the right distribution channel:

Market research has revealed that consumers are overwhelmed and confused at retail stores like Circuit City… no doubt a contributing factor in its recent bankruptcy filing. People they tracked on "shop-along" research trips found it impossible to discern the meaningful difference between, say, a $40 mouse and a $70 one, let alone penetrate the chaos that is the flat-screen TV section. Navigating the many dozens of options marketed with buzzwords like "plasma," "digital," or "720p LCD" was daunting, and many potential customers left the store without making a purchase. So the industry can add "loss of sale" to their return losses as well.

Research shows that shoppers frequently visit manufacturer Web sites for information… but rarely make the purchase decision based solely on that information. They used third party sources such as CNET, customer reviews on Amazon or the advice of their peers before making the buying decision. It's no surprise, then, that there is little-to-no brand loyalty. Except, of course, for Apple who has succeeded in translating geek-speak, like "120GB," to terms anyone can understand, like "30,000 songs."  The consumer electronics industry needs to stop talking tech-speak and start speaking in terms that mean something to the rest of us consumers.

If Microvision is marketing the PicoP Display Engines to OEMs, its distribution channel choice is obviously the partnered OEMs. However, if Microvision is also considering the introduction of a stand alone accessory PicoP projector like SHOWwx on it own, it needs to seriously evaluate its choice for distribution channel(s) selected for a consumer product addressing the mass market. Each distribution channel has its unique pros and cons and requires an extensive study that is beyond the scope of this post. However, the most important features involve the optimization of the following desirables…

• Cash flow and margins… credit card sales from company [and affiliate] web sites provides advance cash payment [and better margins] as against 30-day delayed accounts receivables from distributors and retailers. As an Amazon drop-ship retailer the company can have the best of all scenarios… on-line retailing power and credibility of Amazon… customer reviews on Amazon… better margins for the company… advanced credit card payment to the company… control over customer service and support… and consistent and clear messaging to the mass consumers.

• Push marketing… company [and affiliate] web sites coupled with e-mail campaigning are much more effective in the introductory phase push marketing than distributors and retailers.

• Pull marketing… third party review sources [like CNET] and retailers [like Amazon] are much more effective in advance stage pull marketing than distributors and retailers.

• Customer support & service… distributors [like Ingram Micro] and retailers [like Circuit City] are not really known for the type of customer service and support that is conducive to customer loyalty or customer satisfaction. RMAs, re-stocking and re-selling is an expensive process due to mishandling and neglect.

• Consistent and clear messaging… company web site, affiliate web sites and retailer Amazon web site allow the company better control over consistent and clear messaging to the mass consumers.

Tell Your Customer the Truth…

If products do make it to the customer home, many don't make it past the out-of-box experience. Not everyone is an early adopter with an appetite (or tolerance) for splashing around a sea of tech-speak to deal with hours-long product set-up guided by confounding directions, little-to-no customer support, and lots and lots of wires.

Well, that’s all I could muster on a sunny afternoon… while we patiently wait for more announcements and answers about production quantities of green lasers and shipments of SHOWwx to current OEMs and the Mobile phone customer Vodafone.

I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the subject.

Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be fine and at the end of the day the MVIS investor will come out whole.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Time to Act Not Just React

The entire financial future of Microvision depends on fast modulating green laser supply and its cost in large quantities. Microvision management has been dealing with this green laser issue for almost two and half years.

Just to refresh your memory, if you recall, the first working PicoP projector using Osram SHG green laser was demoed in June of 2007. After two and half years, we are still talking about possible further delays due to green lasers. That is frustrating in itself.

However, what’s more frustrating is that during three CES expos in a row [CES 2008, CES 2009 and CES 2010) there hasn’t been any significant improvement or enhancement to Microvision’s PicoP technology or image quality. We can discredit the PC Magazine review as flawed, biased, and nothing more than hogwash all day… but the fact remains, there is always some fire where there is smoke!

Three years in a row Microvision has been burning bucket loads of cash… but demoed the same product [now called SHOWwx] at the CES 2008, CES 2009, and CES 2010. Even the analyst community and the media has picked-up on that. Why there was no effort to use the available time and resources to develop additional applications using PicoP display technology and derivatives of SHOWwx?

It takes a little while, but eventually this thing about secrets and supply chain partner delays doesn’t “cut the mustard” with the investor community. Microvision stock (MVIS) is in a free fall. It has been falling every day ever since CEO Alex Tokman posted his in-house interview at The Displayground website on January 7th, 2010… the same day CES 2010 expo opened.

It is very frustrating.

You can define frustration in many ways… but what’s been going-on at Microvision gives “frustration” a new meaning altogether.

We can add one more definition to the word frustration... waiting for definitive plans from Microvision while being told that the management will disclose them by CES 2008… then by 2009… and then by CES 2010.

How dare we worry about where our investment dollars are going when it's such a small part of the big picture of: “the holly grail of embedded PicoP projectors in the billion unit mobile world?” What frustrated me on January 7th, after listening to the CEO interview, was another set of delays and possible issues. It sounded like, and resonated with those in the industry that have been saying for years why a high speed modulating laser based PicoP will fail because of pricing and supply issue. I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the issue, but can somebody please throw some light on the green laser availability, pricing and stability issues as they affect the success of laser based PicoP projectors.

Here’re some more thoughts on frustration…

• Having the wool pulled over our eyes is frustrating;
• Waiting for concrete answers is frustrating;
• Having legitimate concerns brushed aside is frustrating;
• Being told to take the pain and ignore the small stuff is frustrating;
• Watching the stock price crash and then drift lower and lower is frustrating, too.

There is enough dry powder on the sidelines to send this market [and MVIS stock price] significantly higher, even into the plus column for the year. But, would-be buyers continue to be stymied as each day brings more questions rather than answers and we keep hearing how off base our concerns are. While panic has become the permanent aroma that greets investors each day, I sense frustration could be moving the Microvision stock price more than any other feeling these days, and certainly today.

I have received hundreds of e-mails and phone calls and I know that many folks just want to throw-in the towel out of frustration and a lack of confidence in the management of Microvision. Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be fine and at the end of the day the MVIS investor will come out whole.

Just frustrated!

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx Has the Best Image Quality

First, let me clearly state again that PC Magazine Review of SHOWwx is full of crap, flawed and is biased.

Having said, let’s take a look at the projected image lumens issue again and explain why SHOWwx has the best image quality...

There are no industry standards [yet] for projected image quality!

However, projection industry players have aligned to set new standards. Here’s the link the article on this subject dated 1/7/2008…

http://news.websitegear.com/view/35069

This article states...

“From the classroom to the boardroom to the living room, vivid color improves communication-enhancing attention, comprehension and learning. Current industry specification metrics fail to highlight the differences in color light output among competing products and technologies -- leaving it virtually unreported. Despite the overwhelming use of color today, the industry has continued to rely largely on specifications that only measure black and white performance such as brightness and contrast ratio. There is growing consensus for the need for an effective, easy-to-use projector measurement metric -- Color Brightness.”

"Based on the existing industry-standard test, Color Brightness, like the current light output measure for brightness (white), is reported in lumens. Color Brightness specifies a projector's ability to deliver the primary colors of light. Today, all video; DVD, HD, digital camera and computer signals are encoded in an RGB color space. Color Brightness measures the brightness of red, green and blue, exactly matching the input signal. If a projector can produce bright red, green and blue equal to the brightness of white, it can reproduce the true color that the creators intended. If Color Brightness does not equal or come close to the white brightness, color images can appear dark, washed out and less accurate."

"Leading color experts agree. "Without this new metric, consumers are in the dark about color performance," commented Karl Lang, president of Lumita. "Two projectors that both advertise 2,000 (white) lumens can have vastly different color performance. Color brightness provides the information consumers have needed for a long time," continued Lang."

Currently, only psychophysical methods for estimating image quality are currently used and they are highly subjective. Here’s a quote from an industry expert on the subject…

“Don Williams, an image scientist from Eastman Kodak who facilitated the meeting, spoke both for imaging practitioners and for imaging scientists and other members of standards committees when he noted, "There appears to be somewhat of a consensus that there is not any reasonable way right now to look at all imaging performance measures without ambiguity."

“Subjective assessments are notoriously flawed, due not only to differences among human observers, but to limitations of devices that render images (monitors, printers), as well as the differences in ambient lighting in two or more viewing environments.”

“Intentional or unintentional use of imprecise terminology also creates ambiguity. For example, industry's marketing literature and our community's funding guidelines routinely associate image quality with unreliable metrics-such as resolution and bit depth. These performance characteristics refer to input settings and become ambiguous if used to describe output quality. The same source could be digitized by two systems that produce the same nominal results (e.g., 3,000 pixel, 24-bit RGB images) yet the quality of the images may differ significantly.”

The bottom line is, currently the manufactures [try] to differentiate their projected image quality in terms of “lumens”, “pixels” “bits”. That methodology may be fine for traditional bright lamp or LCD based image projectors. However, for laser projectors the use of lumens to define image quality is flawed… although the pixels and bits may still be useful metrics in defining the laser projection image quality.

First, let’s talk about “laser lumens” vs. “diffused light lumens”…

Laser light is very concentrated light at less than 1 degree deflection. So, 10 lumen laser light projected image [pixel by pixel] is 1,300 lumen light projection image from a traditional lamp/LCD projector about 100 inches away.

I am not the only one that agrees with that “psychophysical methods for estimating image quality”. Mr. Golan Manor, VP Technical Marketing for Explay, also happens to shares my views on the subject…

“As for actual image brightness, all of these devices project images in the range of 10 lumens. As Explay's Manor note, it's the equivalent of 1300 lumens projecting at 100 inches.”

Here’s the link to Mr. Golan Manor’s quote [at the end of the article]…
http://www.physorg.com/news94387529.html

I agree with Mr. Manor... not because he is right but also a picture speaks a thousand words.

Just take a look for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related

When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more weeks will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman

Dear Mr. Tokman:

Considering the further delays and continued issues with executing the green laser based product business plan, please consider cutting the overhead by at least 70%.

Smart money investors have already sold-off and left! Why continue with a burn rate that reflects high levels of product development and sales activity... when there is none? I say this after looking at [and not finding anything other than SHOWwx] at the CES 2010 show. And yes, I also looked at the on-line interview at least ten times... just to be sure that I got the intended message right.

Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx has been around for almost two years now and is already an old technology... so to speak. Granted, that laser based pico projectors will be a huge success someday... but that day or for that matter that year is not this year to put it bluntly.

It is time to take control of this green laser nonsense that has been making rounds for the last two years and explore alternate technologies such as pico projectors that work with slow modulating green lasers.

With the existing laser light technology as it is today, it is stretching the technology envelop little too far to achieve SHG green lasers that can reliably modulate at 100MHz. Also, you may have experienced success with MEMS mirrors with carbon fiber torsion arms that can modulate fast enough today... but what happens to them a year or two from now is anybody’s guess. Materials fatigue and fail at exponential rate at the high end of the stress cycle.

For God’s sake control costs and think survival over the next two years when technology will be ready to support your currently demanding product specifications.

Also, the embedded pico projectors could be the ultimate goal for mass adoption and profitability in the future... but the standalone SHOWwx and its derivatives can still make Microvision profitable this year.

Warm regards,

Anant Goel
Beaten, bruised and humbled investor of Microvision

Microvision: PC Magazine Review is Full of Crap, Flawed, and is Biased.

I say this...

Because David Stone, the PC Magazine review team leader, has taken the lazy man’s path to reviewing a high tech product and his inexperience with the laser display technology shows. PC Magazine review is basically a self centered pompous review that likes to start-off with “biased” and “pompous” conclusion as the introduction to a high tech product review. If you don’t know the meaning of pompous; then look-it-up in the dictionary! In the English language it means...

• Arrogant
• Pretentious
• Self-important

If Davis Stone was the recognized authority on lasers or laser based MEMS raster scanning display technology; then I would stay low and take him seriously. But that is not the case... as is obvious from many apparent mistakes in his review methodology and the dozens of reader comments fiercely debating and questioning PC Magazine review.

Now you can add me also to the list of those questioning Mr. Stone’s competence, experience and integrity as the self-proclaimed independent review authority.

This is how Mr. Stone starts off his “Image Quality” review of Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx...

Image Quality

“The ShowWX's image quality is disappointing at best and, unfortunately, probably better described as flawed. I measured the brightness at 8 lumens, which is a reasonable 80 percent of the claimed 10 lumens.”

Here’s the link to PC Magazine review...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp

Here’re a few points to start with that show how shallow the PC Magazine review really is...

1. Diffused light measurement techniques and devices are not [and should not be] used for measuring light output from pulsating [or modulating] laser light sources especially where the laser light is switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments. Only an ignorant and inexperienced reviewer would use the same tools and methodology for laser light MEMS raster scanning technology projectors [like SHOWwx] that they use for diffused light source projectors... pico or conventional.

2. Combination of diffused light source [lamp and LED] with LcoS panel puts out lumens whether you need them for projected images or not... thus creating background lighting and contributing to overall lumens readings. Laser based pico projectors, on the other hand, use coherent light source and it is the lumen light intensity of the pixels that should be measured... because that’s what the eye sees with dark background contributing to the high contrast ratio. This explains the flawed measurement of 8 lumens that was recorded by PC Magazine reviewer vs. the 10 lumens stated by Microvision.

3. Mr. Stone is wrong [and full of crap] in stating 8 lumens measured vs. the stated 10 lumens... because when correctly measured using the proper tools [and methodology] the Microvision laser pixels are at 10+ lumens. You can call Corning for yourself and verify that.

4. Also, when the laser light source is modulating at 100 MHz rate and completely switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments... the background lumens are almost nil... with the image pixels still at full 10+ lumen intensity. That explains everything we have seen and heard over the last year that tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.

5. The background lumens give washed out effect to the projected images. Background lumens may add to the total lumens, as is the case with LED/LcoS based pico projectors, but they also wash out the images. Did Mr. Stone do a side by side comparison of the projected images? I don’t think so!

Because if he did a side by side comparison, this is what he would see...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png

6. Laser based pico projectors use coherent light source and it is the lumen light intensity of pixels that creates high intensity vivid colors. When the laser light source is switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments, the background lumens are almost nil... with the image pixels still at full intensity. That should explain the high contrast ratio of 5,000:1 for SHOWwx, where lasers are switched-off during periods of dark picture segments... without reducing the lumen intensity of the projected pixels. This is an energy conserving technique that Microvision uses that also gives it the high contrast ratio of 5,000:1 as a side benefit. Mr. Stone ignored to mention the color gamut, vivid color and high contrast ratio of the images projected by SHOWwx.

7. Pico projectors are designed for image viewing by humans and not by some rigged set-up that neutralizes the image enhancing techniques such as those incorporated by laser pico projector SHOWwx. For example, the “speckle” effect is inherent to laser based MEMS raster scanning display technology. And Microvision uses various techniques to minimize speckle to a point that is hardly noticeable to the naked eye. Now, if PC Magazine set-ups a rig, as part of their review, and then go looking for speckle then obviously they will find it... because they have effectively neutralized whatever Microvision designed into the SHOWwx to reduce speckle. To me that shows malice and an agenda to attack the main differentiating feature of SHOWwx... the image quality.

8. The green line at the bottom of the projected image is used for calibrating the SHG green lasers from Corning. The green line is intermittent and not visible to the naked eye... unless you go looking for it. The future generations of Microvision pico projectors will not be using this green laser calibrating feature. It is quite possible that the PC Magazine reviewer received an older SHOWwx using Corning green laser or the reviewed unit was out of calibration. Either way, one small blemish [or a pimple] on the face does not make your caring and loving wife an ugly beast... does it?

9. The SHOWwx uses red, green, and blue lasers and MEMS mirror to raster scan the images on the screen. That means it doesn't have a native resolution in the same sense as DLP, LCD, and LcoS projectors, which have a fixed number of cells or mirrors. It has a preferred resolution for optimal performance which Microvision pegs at 848 by 480 pixels, one of the variations on WVGA and also appropriate for the wide-format version of 480p video. Since Microvision’s picop display engine uses MEMS raster scanning at the heart of its technology, it has upward pathways to high definition resolution of large image [currently at 200”] projection... without any increase in the physical size of the display engine.

10. In the digital world, other than a word processor, black on white is not very common. It’s mostly a soft pleasing background like IBM blue. However, if you are stuck on comparing “black on white” then look at what Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx offers...

http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/0/P9M0FI7zMmo

Now let’s see what the competition has to offer?

Putting it mildly, PC Magazine review is full of crap, flawed and is biased.

Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.

Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.

When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.

I don't think the PC Magazine reviewer is on the take nor has a grudge against Microvision. Two people can look at the same thing with different expectations and draw different conclusions. May be the reviewer got a bad unit or an older unit using first generation green laser from Corning or one that hadn't been calibrated properly.

However, the question is: “Who else is going to review the SHOWwx, what are they going to say about it, and what will their motivation be?”

There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.

In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased.

As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...

http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related

Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...

“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.

The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.

While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”

Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+...

At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.

Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09...

Now you tell me?

Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.

Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens!

You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.

PC Magazine review is full of crap, flawed and is biased.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Perfect Storm CES 2010

These may sound like harsh words coming from one of the very staunch supporters of Microvision team. However, they need to be said at this juncture...

What we have seen over the past 48 hours is the “perfect storm” brewing in the future of Microvision. It started with Asia Optical making public comments [as perceived] in the media about TI having the best pico solution for embedded applications. It picked-up more gale force after the in-house staged CEO interview where Alex indicated more delays and future uncertainties. It became a perfect storm of hurricane force magnitude over the PC Magazine review of SHOWwx.

Individually these negative issues are easy to deal with because they have a reasonable explanation... and as such may or may not have an impact on the MVIS share price in the short term. However, collectively they are the recipe for a “perfect storm” and may precipitate an investor sell-off first and then look for explanation later... and that could be very damaging to the overall investor psyche.

Over the last two trading days the stock price has dropped almost 20% and seems to be holding at $2.92 for now. Is there further decline possible; that’s the next question in our minds?

Let’s take a look, shall we...

Asia Optical Comments about TI Pico Solution:
Asia Optical is a relatively new supply chain partner of Microvision with a relationship that formed just over a year ago. When AO makes comments that favor TI pico solution; it is understandable since Asia Optical has years of existing and ongoing relationship with them. So we can put that aside and consider it a minor twister in the way large corporations stick together and pay more attention to their current revenue source rather than go out of their way to support the business plan of a newcomer [like Microvision] with a glowing future potential.

Granted, that AO could have said something complimentary to TI without stating the “DLP pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency”. When you look at the choice of words that AO used, it is easy to mistakenly take it as saying that DLP pico(TM) solution is the best for embedded applications. Asia Optical knows that pico(TM) is the registered trade mark of Microvision. And DLP pico solution may not be the best when compared to laser based PicoP solution from Microvision for embedded applications. However, there are no embedded pico display engines from Microvision to be found on planet earth as yet. So, considering the existing pico technologies out there currently; the DLP pico solution is perhaps the most compelling solution etc. etc.

Read again what it says in the January 6th Press Release...

"Following an extensive comparison of all pico technology options we selected DLP Pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency," said Robert Lai, founder, chairman and CEO of Asia Optical. "We believe the market opportunity for embedded displays in consumer electronics products, such as digital still cameras and digital video cameras, is significant and we are excited to launch the first product with DLP very soon."

Here’s the link...
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/LA32932.htm

Interview with Microvision CEO Alex Tokman:
On January 6th, Alex Tokman gave an interview that was posted at the company’s blog site The Displayground.

Here’s the link to the interview...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

First, I must congratulate the management for taking the bold initiative to communicate with the stakeholders at the blog in such an informal setting. The Displayground has been a leap of faith in the way a corporation, such as Microvision, has embraced the Internet to communicate with its stakeholders.

Having said that, any effort to communicate with the stakeholders is to be commended!

However, Investors of Microvision have such high expectations of the management that at first blush the interview looks so stiff and staged. But when you look at the interview again and pay more attention to the subject matter, rather than watch the body language of Alex Tokman, it kind of grows on you. We, as investors, must realize that video interviews with corporate CEOs that are conducted in an in-house informal setting to communicate are not a very common practice. They may look staged initially but they certainly will get better as they become more frequent and with some practice.

Now let’s get to the center of this “perfect storm”...

It’s not very often, if ever, that you see the CEO of a company give an informal interview to release information that could have some serious consequences to not only its stock price but also raise questions about the credibility of its CEO. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what this interview did... precipitate a stock sell-off and, in my opinion, seriously damaged the credibility to Microvision CEO.

Both the timing and the intended [or unintended] information disseminated at this interview left the investors with a perception of further delays in green laser production and also delays in the release of pico display engine evaluation units for embedded applications.

First the timing...

The timing of this in-house interview with Microvision CEO couldn’t have been the worst move in the history of Microvision. It tops all the other “blunders” the top Management [past and present] has made over the years. In my opinion, it takes the “Last Blooper Standing” award of the year and effectively neutralizes any positive impact of the CES 2010 award that Microvision received as the “Last Gadget Standing” for its SHOWwx projector.

Bloopers happen usually as accidental, and usually has humor when it happens. Where actors need to memorize large numbers of lines or perform a series of actions in quick succession, mistakes can be expected. Some common examples include:

• Uncontrollable laughter (called in television circles, corpsing);
• Unanticipated incidents (like constant figiding);
• Forgotten lines; or
• Deliberate sabotage of an actor's performance by a fellow actor (to evoke laughter).

Unfortunately, this CEO interview did not evoke any laughter... but caused damage by precipitating MVIS stock sell-off and raised questions about Alex Tokman’s already fragile credibility as a CEO. We can blame Corning, Osram and green lasers for all of Microvision’s current problems all day... but at the end of the day it all falls in the lap of the CEO.

PC Magazine Review:
On January 7th, PC Magazine published their findings of SHOWwx pico projector review. Boy, oh boy! Talk about perfect timing to join in the storm brewing at Microvision.

First, here’s the link...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp

Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.

Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.

When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.

I don't think the PC Magazine reviewer is on the take nor has a grudge against Microvision. Two people can look at the same thing with different expectations and draw different conclusions. May be the reviewer got a bad unit or one that hadn't been calibrated properly.”

However, the question is: “Who else is going to review the SHOWwx, what are they going to say about it, and what will their motivation be?”

There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.

In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased. And that will be the subject of my next post.

For one quick example of why PC Magazine reviews of SHOWwx is flawed...

Diffused light measurement techniques and devices are not [and should not be] used for measuring light output from pulsating [or modulating] laser light sources especially where the laser light is switched on/off during periods of dark picture areas. Diffused light sources put out lumens whether you need them for projected images or not... and that should explain the disparity in very simple words.

PC Magazine is wrong in stating 8 lumens measured vs. the stated 10 lumens... because when correctly measured the Microvision laser pixels are at 10+ lumens. You can call Corning for yourself and verify that.

As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related

or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related

Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...

“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.

The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.

While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”

Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+transformed+into+tech+lover+paradise/2417678/story.html

At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.

Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09/and-the-winners-are/

Now you tell me?

Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens!

You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.

PC Magazine review is flawed and biased.

Read all about it in my next post.

In closing this post...

The stakes here are very high, and we are worried that Microvision management underestimates the things they need to do, as well as, the things their competitors will do to gain advantage in the pico projector marketplace. Obviously, Microvision management did not see this “perfect storm” coming and apparently has no contingency plan.

Microvision does have the financial backing to survive the “perfect storm” over the next 3 to 4 Qtrs. However, it will take some more financing money and Management charisma to pull out of this Perfect Storm on its own... considering the investor dissent brewing on the horizon.

I can't wait to see what's in store for tomorrow? Perhaps some more down-side and margin calls for the long investors.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/