On March 24th, Microvision launched its first laser PicoP projector SHOWwx for sale from its on-line store…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Sales of this DVD quality and focus free laser projector have been quite brisk without any visible signs of advertising or promotional effort… indicating a broad based demand; from those that are aware of this pico projection as the emerging new technology that seems to have arrived in full bloom this spring.
I received my Limited Edition SHOWwx a few days ago and shared the pico projection experience with my friends, family and some total strangers.
Here’s my personal experience with Limited Edition SHOWwx…
The packaging is First Class, including a solid high quality 12x16" shiny black box that says "Image by PicoP" in silver letters. All the accessories are in their own quality boxes and they all rest on black grass like packing material. It also includes a Limited Edition SHOWwx Laser Pico Projector Certificate of Authenticity signed by Alexander Tokman… the CEO of Microvision. I was very impressed as to the very upscale quality of the packaging. It tells me that Microvision is a quality company with a quality product included in the box.
The metallic blue color SHOWwx was nicely packed compactly in its own compartment. A chrome plated insignia “SHOWwx Limited Edition” graced on the top half of the laser projector. I quickly read thru the few pages of instructions and safety manual to familiarize with the fine nuances of this feather weight machine that boasts of up to 100” projection display under certain ambient light conditions.
I inserted the battery in the SHOWwx as instructed in the manual and charged the battery for a few hours till the orange light turned green. When I first turned it on, it displayed my name in the lower right hand corner which was pretty cool. I walked around the house projecting various size images up and down the ceiling to walls to the hard wood floor. What an experience… feeling like a kid in the candy store! The highlight of this experience culminated in the fairly dark entertainment center in my finished basement.
Over 100” vivid color and focused image on the white wall just had one response from my 10 year old son… WOW!
One of the main usages that I had planned for SHOWwx was to watch streaming sports and You Tube videos. But, I still have not yet figured out how to enable the external monitor/projector on my HP Pavilion laptop. I tried the FN+F5 key combination the laptop instructions recommended; but that didn't work so I'll keep working on that.
The next thing I wanted to use SHOWwx was to hook it up to my portable DVD player and watch big screen movies in the entertainment center of the basement. Since my portable DVD player has 9" screen, it handles and travels well but I wanted a bigger screen to watch the movies. Surprisingly, even though SHOWwx comes with 4 different cables the one I needed was not included. So, I had to buy the proper male to male RCA video cable for $5 at the local Radio Shack
I hooked it up to my portable DVD player and found I had to press a switch that made my DVD screen go dark but produced a picture on the SHOWwx. The colors were bright and vivid and there were no green lines on the top or bottom of the screen when playing “Star Wars” on the DVD. The picture is certainly brighter when the screen size is 40” diagonal… but is still very sharp at 80” diagonal. Like most projectors the SHOWwx works best in a dimly lit or dark room… just like in a theater. The battery charge was good enough to last over 110 minute… before I had to go looking for the spare that came with the Limited Edition SHOWwx.
Paul Anderson did a very nice experiment with the SHOWwx battery run time that you should take a few minutes to look at…
http://mvisblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/my-showwx-experiment.html
Overall, I think it works great and the unit is so light you could easily carry it in a shirt pocket although mine came with a nice heavy duty carrying case with an "X" (for SHOWwx) on it that easily clips-on to your belt.
The only obvious improvement I would recommend; is to include an on-board SD memory card… for downloading and using digital content without having to attach SHOWwx to a host device.
With my personal experience set aside…
Initial reviews of SHOWwx and its projection image quality are coming-in from the first adopter users of the Limited Edition and the Commercial Edition product that was just recently shipped over the last few days.
If you are willing to accept the good with the bad, here’s a collection from a diverse group of people that have had a chance to look at the SHOWwx image projection in real life setting:
• “Tremendous product! This pico projection communicates the giddy excitement that awaits those who see and play with the PicoP for the first time. Such a bright, clear, colorful image from such a tiny device is hard to accept at first, as it contradicts one's prior experiences. Those guys were getting happy feet just like I did the first time I saw the PicoP in action. Microvision technology is going to OWN the high quality end of these emerging product categories.”
• “The projected image is from iPod Touch that has a resolution of 483 by 320 pixels. SHOWwx has a resolution of 848 by 480 pixels. If you liked the image at 483x320 pixels [iPod Touch] just imagine how awesome the image would look at 848x480 pixels.”
• “Even at the $549 launch price this product is amazing value and I for one will probably be buying several.”
• "...the amazing thing about this projector, it's not a shitty DLP or LCD based light engine... it's a scanning LASER!!!"
• "Because it's a beam of light from lasers it's always in focus, incredibly bright and the lasers have an immense lifetime..."
• "The Microvision laser projector seriously impresses me (and come on, you know how cynical I am!) but I'm not at all excited by those little DLP projectors that are just hitting the market... they are built on an old technology that isn't translating to the mobile world very well at all..."
• I have seen the videos of this product image. What I notice is so much better image quality in real life. It's worth mentioning a few facts:
1. Due to the slight difference between the refresh rate of video camera and the laser scan lines on the Microvision projector; the video image appears to flicker… which does not happen in "real life" and is a side-effect of recording projected image with a camera.
2. Most digital cameras don’t handle the low ambient light recording well and therefore don’t do the SHOWwx pico projector any favors... but the video images still look amazing!
• “Needless to say, I absolutely LOVE this product."
• "Yeah - Dad's mad about this, but I have to admit the demo was excellent. No focusing and a massive clear image created from a handset-sized device. Imagine sharing your images at a party on a wall...”
• “This unit outperforms the comparable Optoma unit and the actual projector is about 2/3rd of the size of an iPhone."
• “Those guys were stunned. I love to see the reaction of tech junkies like me.”
• “Just get me some big fat orders and I'll be happy.”… Obviously from someone who desperately wants to work for Microvision in the sales department.
• “You might mention that the flickering on the screen doesn't show when you're using the projector live. And yeah, I want one . . .”.
• “It is almost laughable now how the "green laser supply" issue has been blown out of all proportions by so many others. A serious public company with serious business doesn't require reading a bunch of tea leafs or put out a bunch of rumor fodder.”
• “Go back and look at all the posts for the last 8 years about how many "this is it" posts on a tea leaf reading have been pronounced and how many have come true?”
• “He could have been referring to a couple of large corporations with sales forces that have inquired about purchasing a number of units when available. However, I think they would want on-board memory so they can load-up a presentation without a second device hooked-up.”
• “Looks a lot better than the Pico Pocket Projector I reviewed a couple of months ago. Looking forward to buying SHOWwx with on-board memory in the near future!”
• “Brilliant! The fact that it's non-focus is the best part.”
• “… I think the SHOWWX is fantastic and everyone will want one when they find out about it.”
So there you have it, comments from those enamored with PicoP… those with inquisitive minds… and those who are skeptics.
Be careful with what you wish for!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Showing posts with label Competition. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Competition. Show all posts
Friday, April 2, 2010
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Microvision: Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010
Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On Monday March 8, 2010, 4:20 pm EST
Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010
Company Announces U.S. Introduction of SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector, Availability of Second Commercial Supply for Green Laser, New Purchase Orders, and Additions to Management Team
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2009 and its plans for 2010.
Continued…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100308006744&newsLang=en
Last three years, especially the year 2009, has been the most frustrating period for Microvision corporate management… mainly due to delays caused by over optimistic green laser production schedule by Corning. However, after 30 months of delay due to technical and production problems, the issues are finally behind us and Microvision has officially launched the world first laser based PicoP projector in the US today.
After the market close on March 8th, Microvision management presented the quarterly/yearly earnings report. After looking at the details of SHOWwx laser PicoP projector launch from this morning and then listing to earnings conference call, I could not help but feel that today is the day when Microvision really went public with an IPO.
Microvision: Goes Public with an IPO… March 8th 2010
Now that I have your attention, consider this…
If Microvision were to have an IPO right after the SHOWwx launch in the US today followed by a very bullish earnings conference call… the IPO price would be more like $20 if not higher.
We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.
Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, huge backlog, ramping-up production forecasts, improving margins, and glowing recognition by industry; like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.60.
Looks like the shorts have you all spooked, doubting yourself, and in knots over in-decision.
One of the issues, if you would call it that, the shorts will “harp on” and have you believe is about low future revenues and insignificant margins.
Well, let’s set the record straight here, shall we…
Many folks don’t realize that the green laser unit forecasts Alex presented at the CC; they do not include any green laser contribution from Osram. Osram green lasers have been validated but production quantities are not yet shipping in any significant quantities… and as such are not part of the unit number forecast presented at the conference call.
Osram green lasers are the surprise factor; both in terms of higher production volumes─ higher than what Alex has projected from Corning and dramatic overall cost reduction due to cheaper Osram green lasers.
The good news─ in the short term, that Alex talked about in his closing remarks, in my opinion, is all about Osram starting to ship production quantities of green lasers as early as the last week of March. Osram green lasers are much cheaper and have much better yields. That’s the surprise factor that Alex alluded to in his closing remarks at the CC.
Be aware of the competitors, shorts and unscrupulous stock traders; when they bash the SHOWwx revenue and profit margins to justify their agenda… whatever form or shape it takes.
Consider this…
• Profit margins on SHOWwx that have been shipped are better than what you may think [or are made to believe] by just looking at 4th Qtr “product sale revenue” vs. the “product COG” numbers. First, the initial batch of product shipped is very small… few hundreds at the most, and that is not a large enough sample to base future trends.
Second, the cost of about 50 or so demo units in the hands and homes of Microvision executives has cost but no revenue. That hurts the revenue numbers and skews the COG numbers as much higher than they really are.
• Profit margins and revenues will dramatically increase─ over and above what they truly are at present, as soon as Osram starts shipping their better and cheaper green lasers in production quantities… as early as the end of March.
• Profit margins are dramatically higher [over 300%] on the Limited Edition SHOWwx that are for sale in the US today.
• Profit margins are substantially higher [over 100%] on the Commercial Edition SHOWwx that will be for sale in the US on March 24th.
There is no better way to say it, than to say it as it really is…
“Alex Tokman, in his closing remarks at the CC, alluded to two pieces of good news coming up: one in the short term [like in weeks] and the other in the mid term."
The short term good news, in my opinion, is about Osram shipping production quantities of their green lasers to Microvision… and that will more than double the forecasted SHOWwx quantities that can be shipped at much better profit margins.
In closing…
Be aware of the competitors, shorts, manipulators, and the unscrupulous operators that would like you to believe that the future revenues and profit margins as insignificant… because, by having you believe that and then manipulate you to sell would serve their agenda to short Microvision.
So why don’t you guys just wake-up, believe in yourselves and stop playing into the hands of unscrupulous shorts.
Be an educated investor and go about making some serious money in the near future.
Stop playing for nickels and dimes… only kids do that with too much time on their hands.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On Monday March 8, 2010, 4:20 pm EST
Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010
Company Announces U.S. Introduction of SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector, Availability of Second Commercial Supply for Green Laser, New Purchase Orders, and Additions to Management Team
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2009 and its plans for 2010.
Continued…
*****
Here’s the link to the full earnings report…http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100308006744&newsLang=en
Last three years, especially the year 2009, has been the most frustrating period for Microvision corporate management… mainly due to delays caused by over optimistic green laser production schedule by Corning. However, after 30 months of delay due to technical and production problems, the issues are finally behind us and Microvision has officially launched the world first laser based PicoP projector in the US today.
After the market close on March 8th, Microvision management presented the quarterly/yearly earnings report. After looking at the details of SHOWwx laser PicoP projector launch from this morning and then listing to earnings conference call, I could not help but feel that today is the day when Microvision really went public with an IPO.
Microvision: Goes Public with an IPO… March 8th 2010
Now that I have your attention, consider this…
If Microvision were to have an IPO right after the SHOWwx launch in the US today followed by a very bullish earnings conference call… the IPO price would be more like $20 if not higher.
We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.
Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, huge backlog, ramping-up production forecasts, improving margins, and glowing recognition by industry; like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.60.
Looks like the shorts have you all spooked, doubting yourself, and in knots over in-decision.
One of the issues, if you would call it that, the shorts will “harp on” and have you believe is about low future revenues and insignificant margins.
Well, let’s set the record straight here, shall we…
Many folks don’t realize that the green laser unit forecasts Alex presented at the CC; they do not include any green laser contribution from Osram. Osram green lasers have been validated but production quantities are not yet shipping in any significant quantities… and as such are not part of the unit number forecast presented at the conference call.
Osram green lasers are the surprise factor; both in terms of higher production volumes─ higher than what Alex has projected from Corning and dramatic overall cost reduction due to cheaper Osram green lasers.
The good news─ in the short term, that Alex talked about in his closing remarks, in my opinion, is all about Osram starting to ship production quantities of green lasers as early as the last week of March. Osram green lasers are much cheaper and have much better yields. That’s the surprise factor that Alex alluded to in his closing remarks at the CC.
Be aware of the competitors, shorts and unscrupulous stock traders; when they bash the SHOWwx revenue and profit margins to justify their agenda… whatever form or shape it takes.
Consider this…
• Profit margins on SHOWwx that have been shipped are better than what you may think [or are made to believe] by just looking at 4th Qtr “product sale revenue” vs. the “product COG” numbers. First, the initial batch of product shipped is very small… few hundreds at the most, and that is not a large enough sample to base future trends.
Second, the cost of about 50 or so demo units in the hands and homes of Microvision executives has cost but no revenue. That hurts the revenue numbers and skews the COG numbers as much higher than they really are.
• Profit margins and revenues will dramatically increase─ over and above what they truly are at present, as soon as Osram starts shipping their better and cheaper green lasers in production quantities… as early as the end of March.
• Profit margins are dramatically higher [over 300%] on the Limited Edition SHOWwx that are for sale in the US today.
• Profit margins are substantially higher [over 100%] on the Commercial Edition SHOWwx that will be for sale in the US on March 24th.
There is no better way to say it, than to say it as it really is…
“Alex Tokman, in his closing remarks at the CC, alluded to two pieces of good news coming up: one in the short term [like in weeks] and the other in the mid term."
The short term good news, in my opinion, is about Osram shipping production quantities of their green lasers to Microvision… and that will more than double the forecasted SHOWwx quantities that can be shipped at much better profit margins.
In closing…
Be aware of the competitors, shorts, manipulators, and the unscrupulous operators that would like you to believe that the future revenues and profit margins as insignificant… because, by having you believe that and then manipulate you to sell would serve their agenda to short Microvision.
So why don’t you guys just wake-up, believe in yourselves and stop playing into the hands of unscrupulous shorts.
Be an educated investor and go about making some serious money in the near future.
Stop playing for nickels and dimes… only kids do that with too much time on their hands.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Microvision: Announces March 2010 Launch of Laser Projector SHOWwx in the US Market
Microvision CEO Alex Tokman announced March 2010 as the launch date for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in to the US market. He also indicated that Microvision will sell them from its own corporate website rather than collaborate with an OEM at this time.
You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Microvision had officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.
As for the US market, it is huge and is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram. Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009… but with Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply should improve dramatically.
Having said that, the next question that begs answering is the reasons for Microvision selling the SHOWwx into the US market on its own rather than through an OEM?
Here’re some thoughts to ponder…
Years ago Microvision decided to focus on the lasers as the source of light for their PicoP Projectors. By doing so the management embarked on a very complex project that involved a myriad of challenges, issues, risks and problems.
When a problem is fearsomely complex, the best thing you can do is take Thoreau’s advice: “Simplify, simplify, simplify.” At the same time, though, one should remain aware of Einstein’s advice: “Things should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
It is a reasonable simplification, to reduce all of the big-picture markets for PicoP projectors to the development and marketing of PDE [PicoP Display Engine] to the OEMs, and let the OEMs add frills [and complexity] to arrive at the final consumer product. However, there may be currently an OEM acceptance issue with that approach due to:
• The lack of interest [or vision] on the part of OEMs to embrace the Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine at this stage;
• The potential fear of cannibalization of the DLP based lamp/LED projectors currently sold by the major OEMs;
• The politics of the market place where the competition [like 3M and Texas Instruments] have deeper pockets and well entrenched relationships.
Lack of vision can destroy [albeit slowly] even the mightiest of the companies, for example:
Kodak could have stayed king of the imaging hill, but they chose to ignore digital as a mere fad.
Polaroid went bankrupt and it is widely believed to be the result of the failure of its senior management to anticipate the effect of digital cameras on its film business.
Boeing allowed a labor strike to deprive it of the last good year it will probably enjoy for some time to come.
And poor old Ford may actually have a tough-minded visionary at the helm, but it is an auto manufacturer in a year when that is simply the wrong business to be in.
Can you imagine the fate of the supply chain companies associated with any of the above dinosaurs… well, may be not those of Boeing?
So, any company [like Microvision] that is waiting on the major OEMs [that lack vision] for its market development [and survival] is in it-self lacking vision… by not introducing consumer product(s) that are strategically aligned to the targeted market. Meaning the target market, at this stage, being the “stand alone accessory” PicoP Projector SHOWwx?
I may be wrong, but I get the feeling that Microvision management is not waiting around for the OEMs to make their move; and is approaching the US market for stand alone accessory PicoP projector SHOWwx on its own.
That’s an excellent move considering the relative ease of developing [and servicing] the US market and the pricing advantage of selling directly to consumers at much higher net margins.
There are, however, some considerations that must be addressed seriously before embarking on such a journey. I’m sure Microvision has addressed these at great length and has arrived at its marketing plan for the US. However, we are not privy to Microvision plans so it’s fair to discuss them here in a tone as if something that should be addressed.
Create a 360-degree experience for the consumer:
The PicoP brands [stand alone or embedded] need to match the right product to the right consumers and then connect with them meaningfully at every point of contact. The "360-degree experience" includes everything from packaging, design, and marketing, distribution to after-market support… including programs to help customers discover product benefits, end-of life recycling programs, and user support executed with the care of a concierge service, rather than with the complication and delay of an overwrought bureaucracy.
I wish there was another example besides Apple to demonstrate a successful 360-degree experience, but Apple nails it every time. They do not try to be everything to everybody. Packaging is elegant. The product is beautifully designed. Set-up is simple. Support is available… with room for some improvement here. Messaging is consistent and clear at every touch point.
Pick the right distribution channel:
Market research has revealed that consumers are overwhelmed and confused at retail stores like Circuit City… no doubt a contributing factor in its recent bankruptcy filing. People they tracked on "shop-along" research trips found it impossible to discern the meaningful difference between, say, a $40 mouse and a $70 one, let alone penetrate the chaos that is the flat-screen TV section. Navigating the many dozens of options marketed with buzzwords like "plasma," "digital," or "720p LCD" was daunting, and many potential customers left the store without making a purchase. So the industry can add "loss of sale" to their return losses as well.
Research shows that shoppers frequently visit manufacturer Web sites for information… but rarely make the purchase decision based solely on that information. They used third party sources such as CNET, customer reviews on Amazon or the advice of their peers before making the buying decision. It's no surprise, then, that there is little-to-no brand loyalty. Except, of course, for Apple who has succeeded in translating geek-speak, like "120GB," to terms anyone can understand, like "30,000 songs." The consumer electronics industry needs to stop talking tech-speak and start speaking in terms that mean something to the rest of us consumers.
If Microvision is marketing the PicoP Display Engines to OEMs, its distribution channel choice is obviously the partnered OEMs. However, if Microvision is also considering the introduction of a stand alone accessory PicoP projector like SHOWwx on it own, it needs to seriously evaluate its choice for distribution channel(s) selected for a consumer product addressing the mass market. Each distribution channel has its unique pros and cons and requires an extensive study that is beyond the scope of this post. However, the most important features involve the optimization of the following desirables…
• Cash flow and margins… credit card sales from company [and affiliate] web sites provides advance cash payment [and better margins] as against 30-day delayed accounts receivables from distributors and retailers. As an Amazon drop-ship retailer the company can have the best of all scenarios… on-line retailing power and credibility of Amazon… customer reviews on Amazon… better margins for the company… advanced credit card payment to the company… control over customer service and support… and consistent and clear messaging to the mass consumers.
• Push marketing… company [and affiliate] web sites coupled with e-mail campaigning are much more effective in the introductory phase push marketing than distributors and retailers.
• Pull marketing… third party review sources [like CNET] and retailers [like Amazon] are much more effective in advance stage pull marketing than distributors and retailers.
• Customer support & service… distributors [like Ingram Micro] and retailers [like Circuit City] are not really known for the type of customer service and support that is conducive to customer loyalty or customer satisfaction. RMAs, re-stocking and re-selling is an expensive process due to mishandling and neglect.
• Consistent and clear messaging… company web site, affiliate web sites and retailer Amazon web site allow the company better control over consistent and clear messaging to the mass consumers.
Tell Your Customer the Truth…
If products do make it to the customer home, many don't make it past the out-of-box experience. Not everyone is an early adopter with an appetite (or tolerance) for splashing around a sea of tech-speak to deal with hours-long product set-up guided by confounding directions, little-to-no customer support, and lots and lots of wires.
Well, that’s all I could muster on a sunny afternoon… while we patiently wait for more announcements and answers about production quantities of green lasers and shipments of SHOWwx to current OEMs and the Mobile phone customer Vodafone.
I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the subject.
Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be fine and at the end of the day the MVIS investor will come out whole.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Microvision had officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.
As for the US market, it is huge and is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram. Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009… but with Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply should improve dramatically.
Having said that, the next question that begs answering is the reasons for Microvision selling the SHOWwx into the US market on its own rather than through an OEM?
Here’re some thoughts to ponder…
Years ago Microvision decided to focus on the lasers as the source of light for their PicoP Projectors. By doing so the management embarked on a very complex project that involved a myriad of challenges, issues, risks and problems.
When a problem is fearsomely complex, the best thing you can do is take Thoreau’s advice: “Simplify, simplify, simplify.” At the same time, though, one should remain aware of Einstein’s advice: “Things should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
It is a reasonable simplification, to reduce all of the big-picture markets for PicoP projectors to the development and marketing of PDE [PicoP Display Engine] to the OEMs, and let the OEMs add frills [and complexity] to arrive at the final consumer product. However, there may be currently an OEM acceptance issue with that approach due to:
• The lack of interest [or vision] on the part of OEMs to embrace the Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine at this stage;
• The potential fear of cannibalization of the DLP based lamp/LED projectors currently sold by the major OEMs;
• The politics of the market place where the competition [like 3M and Texas Instruments] have deeper pockets and well entrenched relationships.
Lack of vision can destroy [albeit slowly] even the mightiest of the companies, for example:
Kodak could have stayed king of the imaging hill, but they chose to ignore digital as a mere fad.
Polaroid went bankrupt and it is widely believed to be the result of the failure of its senior management to anticipate the effect of digital cameras on its film business.
Boeing allowed a labor strike to deprive it of the last good year it will probably enjoy for some time to come.
And poor old Ford may actually have a tough-minded visionary at the helm, but it is an auto manufacturer in a year when that is simply the wrong business to be in.
Can you imagine the fate of the supply chain companies associated with any of the above dinosaurs… well, may be not those of Boeing?
So, any company [like Microvision] that is waiting on the major OEMs [that lack vision] for its market development [and survival] is in it-self lacking vision… by not introducing consumer product(s) that are strategically aligned to the targeted market. Meaning the target market, at this stage, being the “stand alone accessory” PicoP Projector SHOWwx?
I may be wrong, but I get the feeling that Microvision management is not waiting around for the OEMs to make their move; and is approaching the US market for stand alone accessory PicoP projector SHOWwx on its own.
That’s an excellent move considering the relative ease of developing [and servicing] the US market and the pricing advantage of selling directly to consumers at much higher net margins.
There are, however, some considerations that must be addressed seriously before embarking on such a journey. I’m sure Microvision has addressed these at great length and has arrived at its marketing plan for the US. However, we are not privy to Microvision plans so it’s fair to discuss them here in a tone as if something that should be addressed.
Create a 360-degree experience for the consumer:
The PicoP brands [stand alone or embedded] need to match the right product to the right consumers and then connect with them meaningfully at every point of contact. The "360-degree experience" includes everything from packaging, design, and marketing, distribution to after-market support… including programs to help customers discover product benefits, end-of life recycling programs, and user support executed with the care of a concierge service, rather than with the complication and delay of an overwrought bureaucracy.
I wish there was another example besides Apple to demonstrate a successful 360-degree experience, but Apple nails it every time. They do not try to be everything to everybody. Packaging is elegant. The product is beautifully designed. Set-up is simple. Support is available… with room for some improvement here. Messaging is consistent and clear at every touch point.
Pick the right distribution channel:
Market research has revealed that consumers are overwhelmed and confused at retail stores like Circuit City… no doubt a contributing factor in its recent bankruptcy filing. People they tracked on "shop-along" research trips found it impossible to discern the meaningful difference between, say, a $40 mouse and a $70 one, let alone penetrate the chaos that is the flat-screen TV section. Navigating the many dozens of options marketed with buzzwords like "plasma," "digital," or "720p LCD" was daunting, and many potential customers left the store without making a purchase. So the industry can add "loss of sale" to their return losses as well.
Research shows that shoppers frequently visit manufacturer Web sites for information… but rarely make the purchase decision based solely on that information. They used third party sources such as CNET, customer reviews on Amazon or the advice of their peers before making the buying decision. It's no surprise, then, that there is little-to-no brand loyalty. Except, of course, for Apple who has succeeded in translating geek-speak, like "120GB," to terms anyone can understand, like "30,000 songs." The consumer electronics industry needs to stop talking tech-speak and start speaking in terms that mean something to the rest of us consumers.
If Microvision is marketing the PicoP Display Engines to OEMs, its distribution channel choice is obviously the partnered OEMs. However, if Microvision is also considering the introduction of a stand alone accessory PicoP projector like SHOWwx on it own, it needs to seriously evaluate its choice for distribution channel(s) selected for a consumer product addressing the mass market. Each distribution channel has its unique pros and cons and requires an extensive study that is beyond the scope of this post. However, the most important features involve the optimization of the following desirables…
• Cash flow and margins… credit card sales from company [and affiliate] web sites provides advance cash payment [and better margins] as against 30-day delayed accounts receivables from distributors and retailers. As an Amazon drop-ship retailer the company can have the best of all scenarios… on-line retailing power and credibility of Amazon… customer reviews on Amazon… better margins for the company… advanced credit card payment to the company… control over customer service and support… and consistent and clear messaging to the mass consumers.
• Push marketing… company [and affiliate] web sites coupled with e-mail campaigning are much more effective in the introductory phase push marketing than distributors and retailers.
• Pull marketing… third party review sources [like CNET] and retailers [like Amazon] are much more effective in advance stage pull marketing than distributors and retailers.
• Customer support & service… distributors [like Ingram Micro] and retailers [like Circuit City] are not really known for the type of customer service and support that is conducive to customer loyalty or customer satisfaction. RMAs, re-stocking and re-selling is an expensive process due to mishandling and neglect.
• Consistent and clear messaging… company web site, affiliate web sites and retailer Amazon web site allow the company better control over consistent and clear messaging to the mass consumers.
Tell Your Customer the Truth…
If products do make it to the customer home, many don't make it past the out-of-box experience. Not everyone is an early adopter with an appetite (or tolerance) for splashing around a sea of tech-speak to deal with hours-long product set-up guided by confounding directions, little-to-no customer support, and lots and lots of wires.
Well, that’s all I could muster on a sunny afternoon… while we patiently wait for more announcements and answers about production quantities of green lasers and shipments of SHOWwx to current OEMs and the Mobile phone customer Vodafone.
I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the subject.
Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be fine and at the end of the day the MVIS investor will come out whole.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Microvision: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage with Report (Part 2)
This post is the continuation of Part 1...
Pricing Strategy for PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
I see two huge markets for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx...
• The after market... that consists of over a billion of laptops, smartphones, DMPs and camcorders that already exist worldwide.
• The value add market... that consists of over a billion of low power mobile TV/Projectors for the third world countries, gaming projection devices, information Kiosks, projection billboards, video infomercial boxes, etc.
The After Market:
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx, you need to first consider billions of existing electronic devices that can utilize the added projection functionality for a decent price. SHOWwx is a standalone plug and play accessory that could be sold as such for premium prices in the after market... just like the after market for car accessories. Currently, the after market for pico projector accessory consists of more than 1 billion existing digital devices... over 700 million laptops, over 300 million smartphones, over 300 million DMPs and over 200 million camcorders.
The after market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product like SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. For starters, just think about over a billion laptops and smartphones that are out there... ready and willing. The owners of such laptops and smartphones are mostly professionals and can easily absorb [and justify] the added cost... as price of added projection functionality that improves productivity, communication, collaboration, and infotainment. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, SHOWwx can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit after market at a decent ASP of say $495... And offer 35% commission to its resale channel partners.
The Value Added Market:
In the near future, dedicated Mobile TV/Projectors will make a big splash in the personal and public viewing of media content… both in real time, a well as, for time shifted mode. Accessory pico projector SHOWwx is a natural companion to mobile TV to start with and can also be embedded when the champion OEM like Qualcomm realizes the true potential of a mobile TV/Projector combo. Mobile TV/Projector for the bedroom is a huge captive market of over a billion households around the world.
Over a billion households in energy starved Asian and East European countries are potential customers for low power mobile TV/Projector combo that can be used for personal or public viewing of media content … with the flexibility of connecting the accessory pico projector to other digital devices when a need arises to do so.
As you can see, the value added market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product that includes the projection functionality of SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, the value added product can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit markets at an ASP [to Microvision] of say $195. Since a champion OEM partner is embedding the PicoP display engine into the consumer product, there is no commissions involved.
Pricing Strategy for Embedded PicoP Display Engine:
Now let’s talk about the pricing and marketing strategy for the embedded PicoP display engine for the new consumer product cycle...
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for PicoP display engines, it is a gross mistake to use the pricing model that’s more applicable to “touch screens” for smartphones... like Oppenheimer has done in their Report. Touch screen is not an accessory for the host digital device... it is a component. And as a component it could sit on the shelf for years until an OEM champions the technology and adopts the said component in the future models as an enhancement.
If a component reduces the cost or adds to the value perception of the added functionality... it will be adopted quicker and may even command a decent price such as is the case with touch screens. I’m surprised that it took so long for the touch screens to become common place─ because human prefer video over other means of communication... and touch screens is indeed the [visual and touch] man/machine interface in smartphones.
Let’s first review the current status.
This is what I see…
Currently there is more demand than supply for the laser PicoP projector SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine. At first blush, that is a good enough reason to command a premium price compared to the competition... assuming there was something that the competition had to offer.
However, it is important to investigate why the demand is high. With little digging, and snooping around, you will see that high demand is directly related to the higher standards of SHOWwx: image quality; large size projection; vivid bright colors; always-in-focus on any projected surface; small physical size and longer battery run features. This is the reason number one for commanding premium prices for laser based PicoP display engines and projectors… and that is today, tomorrow and to the day until supply catches-up with demand.
Quality always comes at a cost. You want quality… then you pay for quality. As they say: “you can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.” In a nutshell, quality at premium price mantra applies to PicoP display engine pricing strategy today, tomorrow and every day… as long as the competition has nothing better to offer.
Another way to arrive at product pricing is by placing a dollar value on replacement cost of products eliminated by your product and then add to this the intrinsic value of your product’s other differentiating features.
Here’s an example of pricing strategy for both the SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine…
a. PicoP can replace a lamp based projector for small meetings and presentations… lamp based projector replacement cost $900.
b. PicoP allows impromptu presentations in bright and vivid colors and always stays in focus with 8 font readability in normal light conditions… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
c. PicoP in the bedroom to watch movies, shows and other streaming videos on the ceiling with no concern for projector location, has short throw ratio from bed to ceiling and always stays in focus… replacement cost of TV on the ceiling $ 900 and $500 in install cost.
d. PicoP can project 200” image size under certain lighting conditions like watching movies outdoors while camping, or with friends and neighbors on a dark summer night … feature value $400 as compared to the competition that is if you are willing to accept small size and washed out color projection.
e. PicoP projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
f. PicoP projects higher definition images [848x480]… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
g. PicoP projects always-in-focus images regardless of the distance or movement of the projector… priceless. This feature is the competition killer. Let’s face it, as an example, would you buy a car that needs starting again every time you stopped in traffic or at a red light?
Right, I didn’t think so.
You see, in case of pico projectors from the competition... you need to re-focus the image every time you move or want to change the size of projected image. It’s not quite like re-starting your car engine every time you stop in traffic... but you know what I mean.
h. PicoP projector gives you twice the projection time per battery charge as compared to the competition… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
i. PicoP projector used as a mobile TV [with a set-top box] saves you money on energy usage over its operating life [consuming less than 5 watts per hour] … feature value $1,200 in energy savings over a 10 year period
k. PicoP projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source… priceless or replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
Well, there you have it...
When you add the value of your product’s unique functionality to money savings from product features, plus the value of improved quality of experience, the total value proposition becomes worth lot more than the $15 [in wholesale] that Oppenheimer projects as the ASP for embedded PicoP display engine for 2016.
Oppenheimer analysts estimates for ASP [average sale price] from FY 2010 thru FY 2016 are absurd; considering the fact that pico projection is not only a product [as in stand alone accessory unit] but it will also open-up new applications for the host [ when embedded]; application that never existed before. Pico projectors, as standalone accessory, will drive new sales in the non-existent pico projector market and sell more of the host product [with a service contract] when embedded to offer the added pico projection functionality.
That’s the way most all of us expect the market for pico projection to develop... and not the other way around where the host decides “if and when” to offer embedded pico projectors. Do you really think the pico projection market is going to sit on its ass [et] and wait for the host to get-off its ass [et] to let the market have the opportunity to embrace and experience all that pico projection has to offer.
Almost all mobile phone carriers offer a free phone in exchange for a service contract that legally binds the subscriber for two or three year service. Razor companies like Gillette offer free Razors in the hopes of selling you the blades for the rest of your life. More and more companies are adopting this business model... if and when their product lends itself to a perpetual service contact.
As this business model grows in popularity, innovative financial models will evolve, as these companies will need to make upfront capital investments and recover it from customers over many years. This business model will embrace PicoP projection like glove to hand and could be the game changer for the first adopter. Partnering with Microvision will be more like the partnership of champions... rather than Microvision looking for a strong OEM champion for its technology.
It’s not about technology... it’s about consumer experience and perception of quality and value.
Purchase orders from distributors, OEMs and mobile phone carriers are solid validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s laser PicoP projector.
Multiple features and functionalities of exceptional quality from one tiny PicoP display engine; will command a price that certainly will be lot more that the $15 in 2016.
In closing and at the risk of being redundant, I would repeat what I said before...
“You can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Pricing Strategy for PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
I see two huge markets for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx...
• The after market... that consists of over a billion of laptops, smartphones, DMPs and camcorders that already exist worldwide.
• The value add market... that consists of over a billion of low power mobile TV/Projectors for the third world countries, gaming projection devices, information Kiosks, projection billboards, video infomercial boxes, etc.
The After Market:
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx, you need to first consider billions of existing electronic devices that can utilize the added projection functionality for a decent price. SHOWwx is a standalone plug and play accessory that could be sold as such for premium prices in the after market... just like the after market for car accessories. Currently, the after market for pico projector accessory consists of more than 1 billion existing digital devices... over 700 million laptops, over 300 million smartphones, over 300 million DMPs and over 200 million camcorders.
The after market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product like SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. For starters, just think about over a billion laptops and smartphones that are out there... ready and willing. The owners of such laptops and smartphones are mostly professionals and can easily absorb [and justify] the added cost... as price of added projection functionality that improves productivity, communication, collaboration, and infotainment. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, SHOWwx can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit after market at a decent ASP of say $495... And offer 35% commission to its resale channel partners.
The Value Added Market:
In the near future, dedicated Mobile TV/Projectors will make a big splash in the personal and public viewing of media content… both in real time, a well as, for time shifted mode. Accessory pico projector SHOWwx is a natural companion to mobile TV to start with and can also be embedded when the champion OEM like Qualcomm realizes the true potential of a mobile TV/Projector combo. Mobile TV/Projector for the bedroom is a huge captive market of over a billion households around the world.
Over a billion households in energy starved Asian and East European countries are potential customers for low power mobile TV/Projector combo that can be used for personal or public viewing of media content … with the flexibility of connecting the accessory pico projector to other digital devices when a need arises to do so.
As you can see, the value added market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product that includes the projection functionality of SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, the value added product can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit markets at an ASP [to Microvision] of say $195. Since a champion OEM partner is embedding the PicoP display engine into the consumer product, there is no commissions involved.
Pricing Strategy for Embedded PicoP Display Engine:
Now let’s talk about the pricing and marketing strategy for the embedded PicoP display engine for the new consumer product cycle...
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for PicoP display engines, it is a gross mistake to use the pricing model that’s more applicable to “touch screens” for smartphones... like Oppenheimer has done in their Report. Touch screen is not an accessory for the host digital device... it is a component. And as a component it could sit on the shelf for years until an OEM champions the technology and adopts the said component in the future models as an enhancement.
If a component reduces the cost or adds to the value perception of the added functionality... it will be adopted quicker and may even command a decent price such as is the case with touch screens. I’m surprised that it took so long for the touch screens to become common place─ because human prefer video over other means of communication... and touch screens is indeed the [visual and touch] man/machine interface in smartphones.
Let’s first review the current status.
This is what I see…
Currently there is more demand than supply for the laser PicoP projector SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine. At first blush, that is a good enough reason to command a premium price compared to the competition... assuming there was something that the competition had to offer.
However, it is important to investigate why the demand is high. With little digging, and snooping around, you will see that high demand is directly related to the higher standards of SHOWwx: image quality; large size projection; vivid bright colors; always-in-focus on any projected surface; small physical size and longer battery run features. This is the reason number one for commanding premium prices for laser based PicoP display engines and projectors… and that is today, tomorrow and to the day until supply catches-up with demand.
Quality always comes at a cost. You want quality… then you pay for quality. As they say: “you can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.” In a nutshell, quality at premium price mantra applies to PicoP display engine pricing strategy today, tomorrow and every day… as long as the competition has nothing better to offer.
Another way to arrive at product pricing is by placing a dollar value on replacement cost of products eliminated by your product and then add to this the intrinsic value of your product’s other differentiating features.
Here’s an example of pricing strategy for both the SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine…
a. PicoP can replace a lamp based projector for small meetings and presentations… lamp based projector replacement cost $900.
b. PicoP allows impromptu presentations in bright and vivid colors and always stays in focus with 8 font readability in normal light conditions… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
c. PicoP in the bedroom to watch movies, shows and other streaming videos on the ceiling with no concern for projector location, has short throw ratio from bed to ceiling and always stays in focus… replacement cost of TV on the ceiling $ 900 and $500 in install cost.
d. PicoP can project 200” image size under certain lighting conditions like watching movies outdoors while camping, or with friends and neighbors on a dark summer night … feature value $400 as compared to the competition that is if you are willing to accept small size and washed out color projection.
e. PicoP projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
f. PicoP projects higher definition images [848x480]… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
g. PicoP projects always-in-focus images regardless of the distance or movement of the projector… priceless. This feature is the competition killer. Let’s face it, as an example, would you buy a car that needs starting again every time you stopped in traffic or at a red light?
Right, I didn’t think so.
You see, in case of pico projectors from the competition... you need to re-focus the image every time you move or want to change the size of projected image. It’s not quite like re-starting your car engine every time you stop in traffic... but you know what I mean.
h. PicoP projector gives you twice the projection time per battery charge as compared to the competition… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
i. PicoP projector used as a mobile TV [with a set-top box] saves you money on energy usage over its operating life [consuming less than 5 watts per hour] … feature value $1,200 in energy savings over a 10 year period
k. PicoP projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source… priceless or replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
Well, there you have it...
When you add the value of your product’s unique functionality to money savings from product features, plus the value of improved quality of experience, the total value proposition becomes worth lot more than the $15 [in wholesale] that Oppenheimer projects as the ASP for embedded PicoP display engine for 2016.
Oppenheimer analysts estimates for ASP [average sale price] from FY 2010 thru FY 2016 are absurd; considering the fact that pico projection is not only a product [as in stand alone accessory unit] but it will also open-up new applications for the host [ when embedded]; application that never existed before. Pico projectors, as standalone accessory, will drive new sales in the non-existent pico projector market and sell more of the host product [with a service contract] when embedded to offer the added pico projection functionality.
That’s the way most all of us expect the market for pico projection to develop... and not the other way around where the host decides “if and when” to offer embedded pico projectors. Do you really think the pico projection market is going to sit on its ass [et] and wait for the host to get-off its ass [et] to let the market have the opportunity to embrace and experience all that pico projection has to offer.
Almost all mobile phone carriers offer a free phone in exchange for a service contract that legally binds the subscriber for two or three year service. Razor companies like Gillette offer free Razors in the hopes of selling you the blades for the rest of your life. More and more companies are adopting this business model... if and when their product lends itself to a perpetual service contact.
As this business model grows in popularity, innovative financial models will evolve, as these companies will need to make upfront capital investments and recover it from customers over many years. This business model will embrace PicoP projection like glove to hand and could be the game changer for the first adopter. Partnering with Microvision will be more like the partnership of champions... rather than Microvision looking for a strong OEM champion for its technology.
It’s not about technology... it’s about consumer experience and perception of quality and value.
Purchase orders from distributors, OEMs and mobile phone carriers are solid validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s laser PicoP projector.
Multiple features and functionalities of exceptional quality from one tiny PicoP display engine; will command a price that certainly will be lot more that the $15 in 2016.
In closing and at the risk of being redundant, I would repeat what I said before...
“You can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Microvision: Side-by-side Image Comparison – SHOWwx vs. the Competition
So far, what’s been missing is the side-by-side comparison of SHOWwx with what the competition has to offer?
Well, here it is finally─ compliments of Oppenheimer from their analyst report on Microvision...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
When I looked at the image size and quality, my first reaction was...
• Pico projector from 3M, using LcoS technology, aroused the feelings that you would have towards a “sick dog” that needs to be put to sleep and put out of its misery. Half baked product like that gives bad name to pico projection technology. 3M is a multi-billion dollar company and I expected somewhat higher quality watermark than what you see. Rushing a product to the market before it’s time is not only bad judgment but poor marketing strategy... end of story.
• Pico projector from TI, using DLP technology, is decent and would be acceptable image quality for the right price. If TI/DLP had no competition from Microvision’s SHOWwx, then they would do just fine... like a dog that could hunt. There would still be issues of long throw ratio, limited image size, low resolution and need to re-focus every time there was a change in Image size or projector location.
• Pico projector from Microvision, using laser MEMS scanning technology, speaks for itself. It needs no words and all I’m going to say: “A picture speaks a thousand words”. To quote what Oppenheimer said in their analyst report...
“The PicoP image has better color rendering; doesn’t require focusing; and is larger, sharper, and more uniform from center to edge.”
Microvision’s laser Pico projection technology is far superior to others out there, and has a bright future; once the green laser bottleneck issue is behind us.
When you look at the 3M/LCoS and TI/DLP pico projector images, you have to wonder that they do need a strong OEM champion for their technology. Without one, they may be left out as the puppy no one wants to own. One the other hand, SHOWwx image size and quality, coming from such a tiny projector, arouses the sense of awe and will attract many OEMs that would want to be champions alongside of Microvision.
It’s not just about technology; it’s about what technology would eventually do for consumers... people like you and me.
While Microvision is all tangled-up with green laser supply issues, the two competitors can, and will, hog the feed at the trough. However, their party may not last too long... because sooner or later, the green lasers will be plentiful; and Microvision hound dog will have its muzzle removed and let go to hunt, to bully and to claim its rightful place at the head of the trough.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Well, here it is finally─ compliments of Oppenheimer from their analyst report on Microvision...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
When I looked at the image size and quality, my first reaction was...
• Pico projector from 3M, using LcoS technology, aroused the feelings that you would have towards a “sick dog” that needs to be put to sleep and put out of its misery. Half baked product like that gives bad name to pico projection technology. 3M is a multi-billion dollar company and I expected somewhat higher quality watermark than what you see. Rushing a product to the market before it’s time is not only bad judgment but poor marketing strategy... end of story.
• Pico projector from TI, using DLP technology, is decent and would be acceptable image quality for the right price. If TI/DLP had no competition from Microvision’s SHOWwx, then they would do just fine... like a dog that could hunt. There would still be issues of long throw ratio, limited image size, low resolution and need to re-focus every time there was a change in Image size or projector location.
• Pico projector from Microvision, using laser MEMS scanning technology, speaks for itself. It needs no words and all I’m going to say: “A picture speaks a thousand words”. To quote what Oppenheimer said in their analyst report...
“The PicoP image has better color rendering; doesn’t require focusing; and is larger, sharper, and more uniform from center to edge.”
Microvision’s laser Pico projection technology is far superior to others out there, and has a bright future; once the green laser bottleneck issue is behind us.
When you look at the 3M/LCoS and TI/DLP pico projector images, you have to wonder that they do need a strong OEM champion for their technology. Without one, they may be left out as the puppy no one wants to own. One the other hand, SHOWwx image size and quality, coming from such a tiny projector, arouses the sense of awe and will attract many OEMs that would want to be champions alongside of Microvision.
It’s not just about technology; it’s about what technology would eventually do for consumers... people like you and me.
While Microvision is all tangled-up with green laser supply issues, the two competitors can, and will, hog the feed at the trough. However, their party may not last too long... because sooner or later, the green lasers will be plentiful; and Microvision hound dog will have its muzzle removed and let go to hunt, to bully and to claim its rightful place at the head of the trough.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Microvision: Embedded Pico Projector Holy Grail
Every time the competition has something good or beats Microvision to the punch, I hear the same argument…
“Microvision’s money play is and has always been embedded pico projector.”
After hearing the same mantra time after time, especially when Microvision is “all show and no action” in response to a competitor, I’m beginning to finally see the light…
Microvision can not produce any significant quantities of SA pico projectors due to production and technical issues associated with green lasers. To this day, green laser issues continue to haunt Microvision… and it is over 18 months ago the bad news about delays was initially brought to the attention of investors on this board.
After 18 months of fully knowing the green laser issues, Microvision still continues to operate with an army of administrative and support staff that continues to burn over a million dollars a month. There has been some reduction in SGA and R&D expenditure… but it is not enough considering the GL issues have been around for so long and continue to be.
The green laser production and technical issues will be resolved some day, either by Corning or by Osram or by both… but that may take a few more months. Current funding of $31 million by selling 11 million more shares in a fire-sale at $3.00 is a clear indication of the reality of green laser production issues.
Now, think about this for moment: “we talk about the embedded pico projector coming to market towards the end of 2010?"
Is that just a coincidence or there is something more sinister behind this time line?
Yep, you guessed it… it’s the same problematic green lasers that are being touted as second generation green lasers that will be the holy grail of the embedded pico projectors!
Call it whatever you like… but to me it is the same damn green lasers [with some upgrades] that are just taking too long to get commercially ready for mass production. The problem is, Microvision management can’t tell the truth to the stakeholders… because there will be massive dissent. Administering truth in one dose is not a pretty picture at all, but neither are the small doses of revelations [and leaks] that we encounter on a daily basis.
Then again, there is another possibility that Microvision management is just naïve, ignorant, and stubborn in believing that the market for pico projector Standalone Accessory unit is small or that it will disappear when the embedded version shows-up on the scene. Unless the embedded pico projectors gets so damn cheap [like free] and get embedded in every thing digital that a household may decide to buy in the future, I continue to believe that there will be a huge existing market for SA units for a long time.
Consider this…
• If you had to pay for it and had a choice… I’m sure you would rather have one SA pico projector that gets passed around in the family or gets connected to whatever your projection needs are in the list of priorities.
• There are tens of billons of digital devices that exist all over the globe… acquired for trillions of dollars in sunken cost. We are not about to discard our existing digital devices any time soon in favor of purchasing new ones with embedded pico projectors. Having said that, we will buy a SA pico projector to extend the life cycle [and our investment] of our favorite digital gadgets.
• Stand Alone pico projectors have three dimensions of freedom that embedded do not...
• Can you imagine watching a football game with your friends on an embedded smartphone… and then all of a sudden your smartphone rings to alert you of the incoming call? Your choices would be to either ignore the call and apologize to your friends or interrupt the game to take the call? When you embed a pico projector in a smartphone, for example, the functionality of one device is blocked [or is compromised] in exchange for that of the other… and that’s not so good.
• Over a billion households in energy starving Asian and East European countries are potential customers for low energy consuming mobile TV/Projector combo [not embedded] that can be used for personal or public viewing of media content … with the flexibility of connecting the SA pico projector to other digital devices when a need arises to do so.
• It is much more convenient to use a SA pico projector for media content viewing [from a mobile TV] or watching a movie on your combo DVD player/ SA pico projector… from the comfort of your bedroom.
So, there you have it.
In my opinion, the SA pico projector market is lot bigger than the market for the embedded, and it will continue to be so… for as long as the embedded version is an option that costs significant amount of money.
What’s significant amount of money?
Well that depends on who is paying for it?
Besides, uncle Woo died many years ago. So it’s just you and me fending for ourselves.
For my money, I’ll take the Stand Alone pico projector over embedded [in something] anytime.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
“Microvision’s money play is and has always been embedded pico projector.”
After hearing the same mantra time after time, especially when Microvision is “all show and no action” in response to a competitor, I’m beginning to finally see the light…
Microvision can not produce any significant quantities of SA pico projectors due to production and technical issues associated with green lasers. To this day, green laser issues continue to haunt Microvision… and it is over 18 months ago the bad news about delays was initially brought to the attention of investors on this board.
After 18 months of fully knowing the green laser issues, Microvision still continues to operate with an army of administrative and support staff that continues to burn over a million dollars a month. There has been some reduction in SGA and R&D expenditure… but it is not enough considering the GL issues have been around for so long and continue to be.
The green laser production and technical issues will be resolved some day, either by Corning or by Osram or by both… but that may take a few more months. Current funding of $31 million by selling 11 million more shares in a fire-sale at $3.00 is a clear indication of the reality of green laser production issues.
Now, think about this for moment: “we talk about the embedded pico projector coming to market towards the end of 2010?"
Is that just a coincidence or there is something more sinister behind this time line?
Yep, you guessed it… it’s the same problematic green lasers that are being touted as second generation green lasers that will be the holy grail of the embedded pico projectors!
Call it whatever you like… but to me it is the same damn green lasers [with some upgrades] that are just taking too long to get commercially ready for mass production. The problem is, Microvision management can’t tell the truth to the stakeholders… because there will be massive dissent. Administering truth in one dose is not a pretty picture at all, but neither are the small doses of revelations [and leaks] that we encounter on a daily basis.
Then again, there is another possibility that Microvision management is just naïve, ignorant, and stubborn in believing that the market for pico projector Standalone Accessory unit is small or that it will disappear when the embedded version shows-up on the scene. Unless the embedded pico projectors gets so damn cheap [like free] and get embedded in every thing digital that a household may decide to buy in the future, I continue to believe that there will be a huge existing market for SA units for a long time.
Consider this…
• If you had to pay for it and had a choice… I’m sure you would rather have one SA pico projector that gets passed around in the family or gets connected to whatever your projection needs are in the list of priorities.
• There are tens of billons of digital devices that exist all over the globe… acquired for trillions of dollars in sunken cost. We are not about to discard our existing digital devices any time soon in favor of purchasing new ones with embedded pico projectors. Having said that, we will buy a SA pico projector to extend the life cycle [and our investment] of our favorite digital gadgets.
• Stand Alone pico projectors have three dimensions of freedom that embedded do not...
o Stand Alone pico projector can be passed around in the family… like single resource shared by many.• In the near future, dedicated Mobile TVs will make a big splash in the personal and public viewing of media content… both in real time, a well as, for time shifted mode. Stand Alone pico projector is a natural [and more suitable] companion to mobile TV than an embedded smartphone or cell phone would be.
o Stand Alone pico projector can be attached to any digital device that has a video out… like one-to-many device. On the other hand, embedded is just one-in-one device.
o Cell phones, smartphones, and laptops are considered personal devices and we don’t really like to hand them over to share. On the other hand, SA pico projector can easily be shared.
• Can you imagine watching a football game with your friends on an embedded smartphone… and then all of a sudden your smartphone rings to alert you of the incoming call? Your choices would be to either ignore the call and apologize to your friends or interrupt the game to take the call? When you embed a pico projector in a smartphone, for example, the functionality of one device is blocked [or is compromised] in exchange for that of the other… and that’s not so good.
• Over a billion households in energy starving Asian and East European countries are potential customers for low energy consuming mobile TV/Projector combo [not embedded] that can be used for personal or public viewing of media content … with the flexibility of connecting the SA pico projector to other digital devices when a need arises to do so.
• It is much more convenient to use a SA pico projector for media content viewing [from a mobile TV] or watching a movie on your combo DVD player/ SA pico projector… from the comfort of your bedroom.
So, there you have it.
In my opinion, the SA pico projector market is lot bigger than the market for the embedded, and it will continue to be so… for as long as the embedded version is an option that costs significant amount of money.
What’s significant amount of money?
Well that depends on who is paying for it?
Besides, uncle Woo died many years ago. So it’s just you and me fending for ourselves.
For my money, I’ll take the Stand Alone pico projector over embedded [in something] anytime.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Microvision: Pico Projector Commercial Ads
While reading news from this morning about Microvision’s pricing of 3.3 million additional shares, I ran into this article…
Microvision release range of Pico-projector Ads for SHOWwx
By Ben Robinson on Thursday, November 26th, 2009 at 2:23 PM PST In Accessories, The Digital Life
Microvision, which is a company that makes Pico-projectors, has released a series of Ads for it’s Show WX product on YouTube , covering a wide variety of social situations – even including two ladies who are out on the town!
In case you are thinking ‘WTF?’, Pico-projectors are portable projector units, that are touted as being the next big thing in Mobile – literally INside them! I’m not so sure if that’s going to happen on a wider scale as it bulks out the mobile device – but I can definitely see the allure of a small projector, IF it produces good quality. Microvision is one of the leaders in that field.
But enough of that – let’s check out some Ads – one embed below, and then some links for you:
Continues with links to five ads…
http://www.intomobile.com/2009/11/26/microvision-release-range-of-pico-projector-ads-for-show-wx.html
I looked at those ads and my first reaction was: “these are over two years old and someone should really take them off the air… they are so cheesee and silly”.
I’m not the only one with those thoughts. Here’re some more comments that I have gathered to share with you…
• I hope the quality of creative is not typical of future efforts. Pretty weak, I think, and don’t do justice to the product. Better this than nothing? I'm not sure about that.
• These ads are maybe 2 years old with old prototype of MVIS pico projector...
• I would hope that someone would remove these; they do not do justice to the current SHOWwx. They are filled with wrong information, even to the simple eye.
• Elevator Pitch @ 30 seconds ShowWX he is pointing downward, @ 36-38 seconds his device is in color and the presentation is in Black/White, and the best for last @ 40-41 seconds look at the ShowWX he is holding it backwards with the cable coming out of the top. This very edited stuff and really should not be here.
• They are concept videos. Not intended to be 'real'. Thought that was obvious.
• "...Thought that was obvious..." With a date of 26 November 2009 and the statement "Microvision has made 5 new pico projector ads", why would it be obvious?
• Obviously mediocre, I agree, but "concept videos" don't have to be mediocre, just unpolished. What's more, I've been following Microvision closely for well over two years and this is the first time I've seen them. Still, thanks to invinonveritas for explaining that the videos are, in fact, dated material; that's reassuring to know but less reassuring is the fact that they're still out there posing as current ads, "concept" or otherwise.
• But the statement is in error. These are old videos that were posted to the Microvision about 2 years or so ago. The fake nature of the samples is clear to me - sorry, but if you can't spot cheap special effects, that's not something anyone but you can change.
• "The fake nature of the samples is clear to me." They are not fakes at all. They're just bad, a fact which is not in dispute. If they're old too, that doesn't detract from the fact that they're bad, and that Microvision, if it chooses to promote itself in such a manner in the future, had better do much better. Just as I could have done better by making a portion of its so-called "public" offering available to existing retail investors.
• http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_scenarios.html
Thought I posted this earlier, but it does not appear to have arrived.
• FWIW, I can second that the "new" videos are old as I remember watching them on the MVIS website over a year ago, and don't know how much longer they could have been on the site before I had found them.
• These videos should be taken-off the air.
• No man down under like this stuff.
• I will admit, that pisses me off watching that....damn it Microvision.
Here’s what I summarize, after having read dozens of comments…
“Take out the drama and just focus on mobility, physical size, image size, image resolution and quality, vivid colors, brightness of laser light source, focus feature, the low power usage, fast refresh rates, 8 point font text readability, short throw ratio [like watching movies on the ceiling], no heat, long laser life and contrast ratio.”
In other words, you can use all the various settings and scenarios… but focus on the features… with emphasis on those features that differentiate your product from the competition.
We know what lamp based projectors are all about and what their applications, benefits, features and limitations are? To embrace the pico projectors to our list of gadgets that enhance mobility is a relatively small leap of vision… since we already know all about bulky projectors. It’s like going from desktop PC to the notebook PC… where the notebook PC opens-up a whole lot of applications and possibilities. Besides, for over a year now, the pico projectors from TI/DLP and 3M/LcoS have been on the market selling from dozens of retail outlets.
You don’t need to spend money or commercial time, to educate the consumer on the benefits and possible applications of pico projectors. Consumer is well aware of the projectors and understands the mobility feature of pico projectors quite well. Besides, competition has been educating the consumer for over a year now. Just because SHOWwx pico projectors is not yet released in the market place does not mean pico projectors don’t exist.
So, please cut the drama and get to the benefits and features… using the various settings and scenarios to accentuate the differentiating features. This way, you will not only get your message across in the least amount of commercial time, but also the consumer will remember the enhanced features of SHOWwx by associating them to the various real life situations and settings.
These five SHOWwx commercials as mentioned here─ and at the Microvision web site are childish, boring, overbearing and done in a very amateurish manner.
Not something that you would expect from a world class company.
Here’s an example of a professionally done pico projector commercial that gets the message out loud and clear… neat… clean… no drama… no spoon feeding… all facts and a lot left to the imagination.
Click on the YouTube streaming video at the bottom of the article…
http://www.notebooks.com/2009/11/30/take-a-pico-at-these-portable-pico-projectors/
Cinemin Swivel got it right... I have to admit.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Microvision release range of Pico-projector Ads for SHOWwx
By Ben Robinson on Thursday, November 26th, 2009 at 2:23 PM PST In Accessories, The Digital Life
Microvision, which is a company that makes Pico-projectors, has released a series of Ads for it’s Show WX product on YouTube , covering a wide variety of social situations – even including two ladies who are out on the town!
In case you are thinking ‘WTF?’, Pico-projectors are portable projector units, that are touted as being the next big thing in Mobile – literally INside them! I’m not so sure if that’s going to happen on a wider scale as it bulks out the mobile device – but I can definitely see the allure of a small projector, IF it produces good quality. Microvision is one of the leaders in that field.
But enough of that – let’s check out some Ads – one embed below, and then some links for you:
Continues with links to five ads…
*****
Here’s the link…http://www.intomobile.com/2009/11/26/microvision-release-range-of-pico-projector-ads-for-show-wx.html
I looked at those ads and my first reaction was: “these are over two years old and someone should really take them off the air… they are so cheesee and silly”.
I’m not the only one with those thoughts. Here’re some more comments that I have gathered to share with you…
• I hope the quality of creative is not typical of future efforts. Pretty weak, I think, and don’t do justice to the product. Better this than nothing? I'm not sure about that.
• These ads are maybe 2 years old with old prototype of MVIS pico projector...
• I would hope that someone would remove these; they do not do justice to the current SHOWwx. They are filled with wrong information, even to the simple eye.
• Elevator Pitch @ 30 seconds ShowWX he is pointing downward, @ 36-38 seconds his device is in color and the presentation is in Black/White, and the best for last @ 40-41 seconds look at the ShowWX he is holding it backwards with the cable coming out of the top. This very edited stuff and really should not be here.
• They are concept videos. Not intended to be 'real'. Thought that was obvious.
• "...Thought that was obvious..." With a date of 26 November 2009 and the statement "Microvision has made 5 new pico projector ads", why would it be obvious?
• Obviously mediocre, I agree, but "concept videos" don't have to be mediocre, just unpolished. What's more, I've been following Microvision closely for well over two years and this is the first time I've seen them. Still, thanks to invinonveritas for explaining that the videos are, in fact, dated material; that's reassuring to know but less reassuring is the fact that they're still out there posing as current ads, "concept" or otherwise.
• But the statement is in error. These are old videos that were posted to the Microvision about 2 years or so ago. The fake nature of the samples is clear to me - sorry, but if you can't spot cheap special effects, that's not something anyone but you can change.
• "The fake nature of the samples is clear to me." They are not fakes at all. They're just bad, a fact which is not in dispute. If they're old too, that doesn't detract from the fact that they're bad, and that Microvision, if it chooses to promote itself in such a manner in the future, had better do much better. Just as I could have done better by making a portion of its so-called "public" offering available to existing retail investors.
• http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_scenarios.html
Thought I posted this earlier, but it does not appear to have arrived.
• FWIW, I can second that the "new" videos are old as I remember watching them on the MVIS website over a year ago, and don't know how much longer they could have been on the site before I had found them.
• These videos should be taken-off the air.
• No man down under like this stuff.
• I will admit, that pisses me off watching that....damn it Microvision.
Here’s what I summarize, after having read dozens of comments…
“Take out the drama and just focus on mobility, physical size, image size, image resolution and quality, vivid colors, brightness of laser light source, focus feature, the low power usage, fast refresh rates, 8 point font text readability, short throw ratio [like watching movies on the ceiling], no heat, long laser life and contrast ratio.”
In other words, you can use all the various settings and scenarios… but focus on the features… with emphasis on those features that differentiate your product from the competition.
We know what lamp based projectors are all about and what their applications, benefits, features and limitations are? To embrace the pico projectors to our list of gadgets that enhance mobility is a relatively small leap of vision… since we already know all about bulky projectors. It’s like going from desktop PC to the notebook PC… where the notebook PC opens-up a whole lot of applications and possibilities. Besides, for over a year now, the pico projectors from TI/DLP and 3M/LcoS have been on the market selling from dozens of retail outlets.
You don’t need to spend money or commercial time, to educate the consumer on the benefits and possible applications of pico projectors. Consumer is well aware of the projectors and understands the mobility feature of pico projectors quite well. Besides, competition has been educating the consumer for over a year now. Just because SHOWwx pico projectors is not yet released in the market place does not mean pico projectors don’t exist.
So, please cut the drama and get to the benefits and features… using the various settings and scenarios to accentuate the differentiating features. This way, you will not only get your message across in the least amount of commercial time, but also the consumer will remember the enhanced features of SHOWwx by associating them to the various real life situations and settings.
These five SHOWwx commercials as mentioned here─ and at the Microvision web site are childish, boring, overbearing and done in a very amateurish manner.
Not something that you would expect from a world class company.
Here’s an example of a professionally done pico projector commercial that gets the message out loud and clear… neat… clean… no drama… no spoon feeding… all facts and a lot left to the imagination.
Click on the YouTube streaming video at the bottom of the article…
http://www.notebooks.com/2009/11/30/take-a-pico-at-these-portable-pico-projectors/
Cinemin Swivel got it right... I have to admit.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Microvision: Take Over Target (Part 1)
This is a subject that I bring-up from time to time… because it is in the realm of possibilities for any company that has a superior product in a huge market, the size of what’s out there for a quality PicoP display engines.
So, here we go with our musing two days before the 3rd Qtr conference call that was announced this morning and is set for Thursday after the market close… on October 22nd, 2009.
There are possibly four companies that could greatly benefit from the "buyout" of Microvision at such humbled stock prices like $5.48 today. The reason I say “humbled” is because a few years ago, in the year 2000, Microvision stock [NASDAQ: MVIS] traded as high as $63 dollars. Of course you could argue that it’s the “market cap” that counts and not just the share price. You are right, and we will let you use that when you come to the table to negotiate the price.
With so much money now freed-up in the financial markets [at so low interest rates] it is tempting for the established [large] companies to gobble –up small competitors that threaten their turf. And Microvision is a major threat for sure to those that came to the Pico projection market with inferior technology that consumer has more or less ignored.
Here’s the line-up of potential suitors, some gentlemanly and the others not…
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS (TI):
TI has finally realized that the scaled-down DLP [Pico projector] still runs too hot, is noisy, requires huge power, is way too big for the small screen size, requires constant manual focus and is too expensive to make. TI sells their DLP chip [for the classic DLP projectors] for close to a thousand dollar. No matter how much cheaper they make their scaled down DLP chip [or sell for lower margins] the cost will still be over a hundred dollars. Not only that, TI will be cannibalizing their classic DLP projector chip, in one form or the other, to capture the Pico projector market from the likes of Microvision [with a much cheaper 2D MEMS and laser based technology].
TI and its technology partners will bring a LED/DLP based Pico projector and compete in the standalone market. However, there will always be the issue of "manual focus", "image size", “power consumption”, “unit size” and "image quality". And these issues become very significant when you consider the embedded market for cell phones and smartphones.
In the long run, TI will find it cheaper to [hostile] takeover Microvision rather than let-go the most profitable and huge Pico projector market and also risk the loss of revenue stream from their classic DLP chips. Over time, I would think much of everything done by a DLP chip could be done with a PicoP derivative. Would TI sit on their hands while their DLP cash cow suffered massive market share erosion to PicoP?
No way!!!
MOTOROLA (MOT):
On the other hand you have MOT desperate for new technology to jump start their handset business. Especially now, with the spin-off of the handset division still on the books, I am sure MOT [or the new buyer in the future] would love to have the PicoP display engine business to themselves and be the gate keeper to the embedded Pico projector market.
Please note…
[On March 26, 2008, Motorola's board of directors approved a split into two different publicly traded companies. This came after talk of selling the handset division to another corporation. These new companies would comprise the business units of the current Motorola Mobile Devices and Motorola Broadband & Mobility Solutions. Originally it was expected that this action would be approved by regulatory bodies and complete by mid-2009, but the split has since been indefinitely delayed due to company restructuring problems and the 2008-2009 extreme economic downturn.]
But what about Nokia, Sony and the other cell phone OEMs? Would they get in the bidding if PicoP became the defacto standard for the embedded market? If I am the CEO at Nokia, I don't want to be writing checks to MOT [or the new buyer] for huge quantities of PicoP display engines?
CORNING (GLW):
There are some speculations about Corning as the potential buyer of Microvision.
The idea is not far-fetched. However, it is unlikely. Corning is not in the habit of getting involved with an army of supply chain vendors of components and services and manufacturing OEMs infrastructure. Corning does well with what they do… because they run a tight ship and control quality thru vertical integration.
But, who knows? Strange things happen in the technology-land these days!!!
APPLE (AAPL):
Apple has to maintain a healthy double digit growth rate to even think about maintaining their $170B market valuation. If they are the brilliant innovators of [consumer] tech then they already know that the projection of video content is the future. Microvision’s PicoP projector will be a disruptive addition to the personal electronics industry within the next year or two. Right now its eye candy to implement a projector into an iPod or an iPhone since it requires add-on attachments to actually make it work; you might as well buy a micro projector.
But I must say that the embedded version of the PicoP is definitely an innovative technology and that’s what Apple usually wants. Apple [and Steve Jobs] tends to want and see what consumers want, then refine it and make it desirable to have. My best guess is that Apple won’t incorporate projectors into iPods [and iPhones] for at least for a while. When the PicoP technology develops more and proves to be a little more portable, Apple may just step in.
Apple has over $30B in cash under Steve Jobs and he is known to lock-up the “best” technology and make it his own… especially when such a technology like PicoP projectors can make his star performers [iPod and iPhone] a second rate product… because of lack of incorporating an obvious innovation to its mobile product line. It may take a year or two, but it will happen… in some way or form. One thing’s for sure though, Apple knows what they’re doing in the interest of their customers.
But the stakes are huge for a number of companies [like Sony, Nokia, Epson, Samsung, LG Electronics, etc.], so it is going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.
Here’s the latest update to Microvision news that is sure to stir-up the bees hive abuzz…
After three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, and 115 issued patents later, the world’s first laser based PicoP projector was commercially launched on September 15th, 2009.
Not only that, another announcement was made [on 10/8/2009] of a major OEM purchase order as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…
“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the two purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs represent as …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… DLP/LED from Texas Instruments and LcoS/LED from 3M.
By the end of 4th quarter this year, we will have much more visibility and better indication of where Microvision is headed.
Here’s the link to Microvision’s best…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
[Click on “New ways to see” post]
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?m=200908
In closing, I must emphasize one more point…
“Aside from Pico projectors, so far, no new “must have” gadget has appeared, unlike previous years when devices like Sony Corp's PlayStation 3; Nintendo's Wii; or Sirius satellite radios and myriad of digital cameras were launched to woo the electronic gadget shoppers.”
"Smartphones are the exception to the above statement. However, smartphones are all about features… and what’s more desirable, as a feature in a smartphone, than a quality PicoP projector as an accessory or as built-in."
Well, the pot of honey has been sighted and I’m sure there’s a “Bear” lurking in the PicoP jungle.
Stay tuned and we will keep a “watch-on” for you.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
So, here we go with our musing two days before the 3rd Qtr conference call that was announced this morning and is set for Thursday after the market close… on October 22nd, 2009.
There are possibly four companies that could greatly benefit from the "buyout" of Microvision at such humbled stock prices like $5.48 today. The reason I say “humbled” is because a few years ago, in the year 2000, Microvision stock [NASDAQ: MVIS] traded as high as $63 dollars. Of course you could argue that it’s the “market cap” that counts and not just the share price. You are right, and we will let you use that when you come to the table to negotiate the price.
With so much money now freed-up in the financial markets [at so low interest rates] it is tempting for the established [large] companies to gobble –up small competitors that threaten their turf. And Microvision is a major threat for sure to those that came to the Pico projection market with inferior technology that consumer has more or less ignored.
Here’s the line-up of potential suitors, some gentlemanly and the others not…
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS (TI):
TI has finally realized that the scaled-down DLP [Pico projector] still runs too hot, is noisy, requires huge power, is way too big for the small screen size, requires constant manual focus and is too expensive to make. TI sells their DLP chip [for the classic DLP projectors] for close to a thousand dollar. No matter how much cheaper they make their scaled down DLP chip [or sell for lower margins] the cost will still be over a hundred dollars. Not only that, TI will be cannibalizing their classic DLP projector chip, in one form or the other, to capture the Pico projector market from the likes of Microvision [with a much cheaper 2D MEMS and laser based technology].
TI and its technology partners will bring a LED/DLP based Pico projector and compete in the standalone market. However, there will always be the issue of "manual focus", "image size", “power consumption”, “unit size” and "image quality". And these issues become very significant when you consider the embedded market for cell phones and smartphones.
In the long run, TI will find it cheaper to [hostile] takeover Microvision rather than let-go the most profitable and huge Pico projector market and also risk the loss of revenue stream from their classic DLP chips. Over time, I would think much of everything done by a DLP chip could be done with a PicoP derivative. Would TI sit on their hands while their DLP cash cow suffered massive market share erosion to PicoP?
No way!!!
MOTOROLA (MOT):
On the other hand you have MOT desperate for new technology to jump start their handset business. Especially now, with the spin-off of the handset division still on the books, I am sure MOT [or the new buyer in the future] would love to have the PicoP display engine business to themselves and be the gate keeper to the embedded Pico projector market.
Please note…
[On March 26, 2008, Motorola's board of directors approved a split into two different publicly traded companies. This came after talk of selling the handset division to another corporation. These new companies would comprise the business units of the current Motorola Mobile Devices and Motorola Broadband & Mobility Solutions. Originally it was expected that this action would be approved by regulatory bodies and complete by mid-2009, but the split has since been indefinitely delayed due to company restructuring problems and the 2008-2009 extreme economic downturn.]
But what about Nokia, Sony and the other cell phone OEMs? Would they get in the bidding if PicoP became the defacto standard for the embedded market? If I am the CEO at Nokia, I don't want to be writing checks to MOT [or the new buyer] for huge quantities of PicoP display engines?
CORNING (GLW):
There are some speculations about Corning as the potential buyer of Microvision.
The idea is not far-fetched. However, it is unlikely. Corning is not in the habit of getting involved with an army of supply chain vendors of components and services and manufacturing OEMs infrastructure. Corning does well with what they do… because they run a tight ship and control quality thru vertical integration.
But, who knows? Strange things happen in the technology-land these days!!!
APPLE (AAPL):
Apple has to maintain a healthy double digit growth rate to even think about maintaining their $170B market valuation. If they are the brilliant innovators of [consumer] tech then they already know that the projection of video content is the future. Microvision’s PicoP projector will be a disruptive addition to the personal electronics industry within the next year or two. Right now its eye candy to implement a projector into an iPod or an iPhone since it requires add-on attachments to actually make it work; you might as well buy a micro projector.
But I must say that the embedded version of the PicoP is definitely an innovative technology and that’s what Apple usually wants. Apple [and Steve Jobs] tends to want and see what consumers want, then refine it and make it desirable to have. My best guess is that Apple won’t incorporate projectors into iPods [and iPhones] for at least for a while. When the PicoP technology develops more and proves to be a little more portable, Apple may just step in.
Apple has over $30B in cash under Steve Jobs and he is known to lock-up the “best” technology and make it his own… especially when such a technology like PicoP projectors can make his star performers [iPod and iPhone] a second rate product… because of lack of incorporating an obvious innovation to its mobile product line. It may take a year or two, but it will happen… in some way or form. One thing’s for sure though, Apple knows what they’re doing in the interest of their customers.
But the stakes are huge for a number of companies [like Sony, Nokia, Epson, Samsung, LG Electronics, etc.], so it is going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.
Here’s the latest update to Microvision news that is sure to stir-up the bees hive abuzz…
After three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, and 115 issued patents later, the world’s first laser based PicoP projector was commercially launched on September 15th, 2009.
Not only that, another announcement was made [on 10/8/2009] of a major OEM purchase order as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…
“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the two purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs represent as …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… DLP/LED from Texas Instruments and LcoS/LED from 3M.
By the end of 4th quarter this year, we will have much more visibility and better indication of where Microvision is headed.
Here’s the link to Microvision’s best…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
[Click on “New ways to see” post]
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?m=200908
In closing, I must emphasize one more point…
“Aside from Pico projectors, so far, no new “must have” gadget has appeared, unlike previous years when devices like Sony Corp's PlayStation 3; Nintendo's Wii; or Sirius satellite radios and myriad of digital cameras were launched to woo the electronic gadget shoppers.”
"Smartphones are the exception to the above statement. However, smartphones are all about features… and what’s more desirable, as a feature in a smartphone, than a quality PicoP projector as an accessory or as built-in."
Well, the pot of honey has been sighted and I’m sure there’s a “Bear” lurking in the PicoP jungle.
Stay tuned and we will keep a “watch-on” for you.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Microvision: You Have Competition
I’m sure there will be many players in the Pico projection "standalone" space... 3M with LcoS and TI with DLP technologies.
However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” Pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.
Microvision’s PicoP display engine could still lead the “standalone” rat pack because of the following:
• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.
• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) will make the Microvision's PicoP projector at par with competition... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?
• A wide angle view means that Microvision PicoP projector can show a wider screen at closer distance. This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision PicoP projector you get…
• Microvision PicoP projector has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.
• Microvision’s PicoP projectors can go from 12inch to 150inch image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering. We will soon find out what [else] Microvision has to “SHOW” at the CEATEC JAPAN 2009.
Microvision will be demonstrating several integrated product(s) at the CEATEC JAPAN and have signed-up a few major players to evaluate commercial PEKs, and has commercially launched the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx on September 15th 2009. Competition, like 3M and TI, have their LED based Pico projectors on the market for over six months… but they are not selling too well… and their prices keep coming down almost every month.
However, it is just the begining of the 7-10 year Pico projector adoption cycle and the market is expected to take-off in 2010…
http://fixed-mobile-convergence.tmcnet.com/topics/mobile-communications/articles/54130-report-picoprojector-revenues-will-exceed-1-billion.htm
Competition is good and will help with faster adoption of the Pico projector by the billion plus unit market. To be a huge [financial] success, Microvision needs only a small percentage of the overall market that finally adopts the technology.
The first batch of many media reviews are starting to come-in from CEATEC JAPAN …
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/
[Make sure to scroll down and watch the streaming video... it is just awesome!]
http://www.legitreviews.com/news/6600/
It is very interesting to see what the media from CEATEC JAPAN is saying…
Microvision's laser-based SHOW WX pico projector shines at CEATEC
“Microvision just struck a deal to start shipping its PicoP-based SHOW WX pico projector in Asia, and while the size may not blow any minds, the image quality just might. With a native 848 x 480 resolution (WVGA), this one pumps out more pixels than pretty much any other pico projector on the market today, and with enough darkness, it can actually spit out an image that's around 100-inches in size. We stopped by the company's booth here at CEATEC in order to have a look at what makes the world's first laser-based pico PJ so special, and we can honestly say the picture was pretty stunning (considering the device we're talking about). We got a lecture on just how amazing the innards actually are (hear for yourself after the break), but it's the estimated $500 price tag and 2010 US ship date that really had us intrigued.
The company also confessed that it's toiling away in an effort to miniaturize its PicoP engine even further, and while it wouldn't come right out and say it, we got the feeling that it was jonesing to get that very device into all sorts of other gizmos in the near future. In the meanwhile, you can expect the SHOW WX to ship with support for pretty much any input via a composite adapter, while an iPod / iPhone connector is apt to be bundled in as well. There's also a 3.5 millimeter audio passthrough, 10 lumens of brightness, a 60Hz refresh rate (trust us, the lines you see in the video aren't seen by the naked eye) and a built-in battery good for two hours on a charge. Oh, and this thing's ability to refocus instantly as you move it closer and farther from the wall is pretty swank -- just sayin'.”
There you have it!
My money is “still” on Microvision. However, I am keeping an eye on the competition… including TI, 3M and Syndiant. Microvision just raised the Pico bar for rest of the competition... some of them with billions in their war chest to fight another day.
However, today belongs to Microvision!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” Pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.
Microvision’s PicoP display engine could still lead the “standalone” rat pack because of the following:
• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.
• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) will make the Microvision's PicoP projector at par with competition... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?
• A wide angle view means that Microvision PicoP projector can show a wider screen at closer distance. This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision PicoP projector you get…
“A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus”.• Laser based Pico projectors will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance from the screen or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.
• Microvision PicoP projector has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.
• Microvision’s PicoP projectors can go from 12inch to 150inch image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering. We will soon find out what [else] Microvision has to “SHOW” at the CEATEC JAPAN 2009.
Microvision will be demonstrating several integrated product(s) at the CEATEC JAPAN and have signed-up a few major players to evaluate commercial PEKs, and has commercially launched the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx on September 15th 2009. Competition, like 3M and TI, have their LED based Pico projectors on the market for over six months… but they are not selling too well… and their prices keep coming down almost every month.
However, it is just the begining of the 7-10 year Pico projector adoption cycle and the market is expected to take-off in 2010…
http://fixed-mobile-convergence.tmcnet.com/topics/mobile-communications/articles/54130-report-picoprojector-revenues-will-exceed-1-billion.htm
Competition is good and will help with faster adoption of the Pico projector by the billion plus unit market. To be a huge [financial] success, Microvision needs only a small percentage of the overall market that finally adopts the technology.
The first batch of many media reviews are starting to come-in from CEATEC JAPAN …
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/
[Make sure to scroll down and watch the streaming video... it is just awesome!]
http://www.legitreviews.com/news/6600/
It is very interesting to see what the media from CEATEC JAPAN is saying…
Microvision's laser-based SHOW WX pico projector shines at CEATEC
“Microvision just struck a deal to start shipping its PicoP-based SHOW WX pico projector in Asia, and while the size may not blow any minds, the image quality just might. With a native 848 x 480 resolution (WVGA), this one pumps out more pixels than pretty much any other pico projector on the market today, and with enough darkness, it can actually spit out an image that's around 100-inches in size. We stopped by the company's booth here at CEATEC in order to have a look at what makes the world's first laser-based pico PJ so special, and we can honestly say the picture was pretty stunning (considering the device we're talking about). We got a lecture on just how amazing the innards actually are (hear for yourself after the break), but it's the estimated $500 price tag and 2010 US ship date that really had us intrigued.
The company also confessed that it's toiling away in an effort to miniaturize its PicoP engine even further, and while it wouldn't come right out and say it, we got the feeling that it was jonesing to get that very device into all sorts of other gizmos in the near future. In the meanwhile, you can expect the SHOW WX to ship with support for pretty much any input via a composite adapter, while an iPod / iPhone connector is apt to be bundled in as well. There's also a 3.5 millimeter audio passthrough, 10 lumens of brightness, a 60Hz refresh rate (trust us, the lines you see in the video aren't seen by the naked eye) and a built-in battery good for two hours on a charge. Oh, and this thing's ability to refocus instantly as you move it closer and farther from the wall is pretty swank -- just sayin'.”
There you have it!
My money is “still” on Microvision. However, I am keeping an eye on the competition… including TI, 3M and Syndiant. Microvision just raised the Pico bar for rest of the competition... some of them with billions in their war chest to fight another day.
However, today belongs to Microvision!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)