Technology and Social Paradigm Shift ─ Laser Pico Projection to Change the Way We View our World

There is paradigm shift coming and the pico projector market is estimated to reach $9.32 billion by 2020; growing at a CAGR of 39.82% from 2014 to 2020.

[Note: Think of a Paradigm Shift as a change from one way of thinking to another. It's a revolution, a transformation, a sort of metamorphosis. It just does not happen, but rather it is driven by agents of change.]

I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection "standalone" space... like 3M with LcoS, TI with DLP, and MicroVision with Laser Beam Scanning technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, MicroVision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” or “standalone” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

MicroVision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…

When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.

Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?

When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.

What’s MicroVision “Killer App”?

It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”.  What makes MicroVision’s PicoP display engine technology as "Killer App" in simple terms?

1.  Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.

2.  Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.

3.  Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.

4.  Large projected images [up to 250”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.

5.  High Definition 720P images at 32 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 50 lumen or more brightness in 2015.

6.  Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology has matured and economies of scale are achieved in 2015.  For example, synthetic green lasers [SGLs] were priced at around $120 each… whereas the diode green lasers [with higher light energy output and efficiency] are currently priced at less than $5 in quantities.

7.  Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next. 

8.  Social Change from the way we share information now to the way it will be shared in the future.

The PicoP display engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to MicroVision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PicoP display engine to the rest of MicroVision product line of applications that are currently under development.

Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisers compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!

Well, MicroVision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your MicroVision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.

But that will change in the next 2 Qtrs: when the earnings report will show $8 million in licensing fee and $14.5 million in proprietary components order [and future royalties] from SONY… and increasing sales of technology development and licensing from 10 or so Consumer Electronics giants from US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.

When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in MicroVision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 3 to 5 years.

Is MicroVision ready for prime time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

In three to five years from now in 2017, the stock could easily trade in the $100 to $400 range. 

No matter how you slice-it or dice-it, MicroVision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

MicroVision’s PicoP display engine could also lead the “standalone” rat pack [with its Celluon PicoAir projector for example] because of the following...

• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) will make the MicroVision's PicoP projector at par with competition... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

• “A wide angle view means that MicroVision PicoP projector can show a wider screen at closer distant!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With MicroVision PicoP projector you get…

“A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus”.

• Laser based PicoP projectors will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector [with DLP or LcoS] every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

• MicroVision PicoP projector has better image quality [at 80,000 to 1 contrast ratio] and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using.  The use of diffused light source, like LEDs or lamps, causes the "torch light" effect... meaning the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

• MicroVision’s PicoP projectors can go from 12inch to 250inch image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what MicroVision is offering. We will soon find out what [else] MicroVision has to offer when Celluon PicoAir [currently at 32 lumen] comes out with 50 lumen and higher brightness.

Celluon’s PicoAir [using MicroVision PicoP display engine] was launched this January and is currently shipping… and is getting raving reviews. Competition, like 3M and TI, have their LED based Pico projectors on the market for over four years… but they are not selling too well… and their prices keep coming down almost every month.

According to the new market research report "Pico Projector Market - Forecasts to 2020", the pico projector market is estimated to reach $9.32 billion by 2020; growing at a CAGR of 39.82% from 2014 to 2020.

However, the laser based PicoP projector market is expected to grow at must faster rate CAGR of 56.95% and take-off in 2014.

Here’s an excerpt from the independent study…

“The technology market entails three major types including Digital Light Processing (DLP), Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCOS), and Laser Beam Steering (LBS). Currently, the majority of pico projectors are being developed based on DLP technology, however it has been estimated that in future, pico projectors would be mostly based on laser technology. DLP accounted for a market share of 56.90% in 2014 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.53% between 2014 and 2020. Laser Beam Steering (LBS) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 56.95% between 2014 and 2020.”

Competition is good and will help with faster adoption of the Pico projector by the billion plus unit market. To be a huge [financial] success, MicroVision needs only a small percentage of the overall market that finally adopts the technology.

My money is “still” on MicroVision. However, I am keeping an eye on the competition… including TI, 3M and Syndiant.

For an in-depth report on “Opportunity of a Lifetime”, please click here…

Microvision: What Business Growth Strategy?

Every business has to plan for growth and executives should make sure their growth plans are consistent with their dynamic business plan. A dynamic business plan is an updated version that is kept current to reflect the ever-changing business-operating environment. Especially in the technology and DOT.com businesses, where the product cycles are so short and consumer preferences are mostly dependent on the next hot product or service.

When it comes to growth plans, the two ends of the spectrum are, for example, should a company grow quickly and unprofitably, like Amazon and Hotmail─ before it got acquired by Microsoft for $480 million, or slowly with a careful eye on the bottom line, like Ben & Jerry's ice cream parlors? It all depends on how much venture capital you have access to and what the competition is doing!

The worst thing you can do is fail to decide whether you're going to be a Ben & Jerry's company, or a Hotmail company, or an Amazon company.

There are three possible scenarios when focusing on the challenges of growing a business and picking the right growth model that is consistent with your business plan and positions you for whatever your ultimate goal is…

Number one: you want to be the gorilla of your industry in a hurry like Amazon.
Number two: you want to ramp-up your business fast and position for an acquisition like Hotmail.
Number three: you want to be a brick and mortar company producing steady profits like Ben & Jerry’s.

Regardless of what your business model is, the CEO and the CFO of the company need to formalize their business growth strategy and evangelize to the man in-charge of running the day-to-day operation of the business. Building a company is no small task? You've got one very important decision to make, because it affects everything else you do. No matter what else you do, you absolutely must figure out which camp you're in, and gear everything you do accordingly, or you're going to have a disaster on your hands.

THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS:

Whether to grow slowly, organically, and profitably, or whether to have a big bang with very fast growth with lots of capital spent in a hurry, that is the question?

The first model, popularly called "Get Big Fast" (a.k.a. "Land Grab"), requires you to raise a lot of capital, and work as quickly as possible to get big fast without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this the “Amazon”, because Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, has practically become the celebrity spokes-model for Get Big Fast.

The second model is called "Hotmail for Sale or Fail". As for the name of our model “Hotmail for Sale or Fail”, I just made it up to make the point. This model requires you to raise only a small amount of capital, position for acquisition, and work as quickly as possible to build momentum to show there is promise of getting big fast… without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this “Hotmail” model, because Hotmail fits this model very well.

The third model, organic growth model, is to start small, with limited goals, and slowly build a business over a long period of time. I'm going to call this “Ben & Jerry’s” model, because Ben & Jerry’s fit this model pretty well.

Now the question is: “where on earth does the Microvision business model fit-in?"

The short answer is...

 "Nowhere"

Microvision’s current business growth strategy is either non-existent or is severely flawed after the green laser debacle of late… that still continues to haunt Microvision even after 4 years.

Here’s one clue to the non-existent, or flawed, business growth strategy…

In early 2007, Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, was quite aware of the following facts…

*  Embedded pico projector was to be the holly grail for Microvision.
*  Without diode RGB lasers; the power, size, and cost of the laser light source based on SHG green lasers would be prohibitive for embedded applications.
*  In 2007, diode green lasers were 4 to 5 years away… as like in 2011/2012 time frame.

If you were to assume correctly, and AT was aware of these facts as early as in 2007, then why in hell his management team carried-on with an army of personnel in SG&A [and R&D] to continually spend over $12 million dollars every Qtr for the last four years. If AT had used this readily available information and some gumption to control costs to say $6 million per Qtr… today there would be lot less pressure to raise money to continue with operations─ while still waiting for diode/SHG green lasers, because Microvision would have saved over $96 million dollars in costs without sacrificing much.

Microvision management should have either changed their business growth strategy to “hunker down” and coast on a low cost/low profile basis until the green laser technology was mature enough with more plausible cost and performance metrics… or let someone else run the company, instead of pushing the company hard on the downward spiral of financial gloom and doom while waiting for diode/SHG green lasers.

Microvision’s current business growth strategy assures that they will continue to lose money-- as they are now… and continue to do so all of the next year and five years from now. The cost and availability of green lasers today, or a year or two from now, plays a role but its financial impact on the bottom-line profitability is very small when you consider the vicious [large volume/lower cost/lower absolute dollar margin] cycle associated with commodity products such as PDEs and IPMs that are sold to consumer product OEMs.

As long as Microvision corporate management is fixated on just selling their laser light based PDEs and IPMs in an OEM market that has all the makings of a commodity market… they will be at the mercy of the OEMs; for consumer product introduction time-lines, consumer product pricing, product marketing, and commodity component pricing with no pricing power.

Just look around and tell me if you see any embedded mobile phone camera makers or the touch screen makers [for things like iPad or iPhone] making any money worth crowing about. On the other hand, consumer product OEMs like Apple, with vision and gumption, come to market with one consumer product at a time─ on their terms, and rake-in billions in revenue and profits.

The current Microvision business model calls for hundreds of millions in sales of PDEs and IPMs to make a few millions dollars in net profit in a commodity type pricing environment … and that too, if and when the OEM customers let that happen.

Microvision still has time to re-configure its business growth model and seriously consider launching its own branded consumer products ─ possibly in partnership with large OEMs; and be the shaker, baker, and maker of its own destiny.

Just take the current situation of Microvision patiently waiting on its hands and feet─ and spending $12 million dollars per Qtr; while the OEM for the High End Media Player (HEMP) procrastinates on product configuration, product introduction time-lines, and product marketing and pricing issues.

In the best case scenario, the current Microvision business model can, in a year or two, only produce modest earnings growth of perhaps 12% per years for many years to come… and may never come even close to the hyper growth in revenue and earnings that we once believed was possible.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Goes Sour on Apple?

There may not be any Apple in Microvision future… because Apple has considered but never [yes that’s right] warmed-up to the idea of embedding a pico projector, Microvision’s or anyone else’s, in any of its product line.

That’s a very bold statement and demands due diligence and research to support this argument.

First, watch this Alex Tokman interview video dated September 27, 2010. Watch carefully; from three minutes seven seconds to three minutes thirty five seconds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MQtsuj1y-I&feature=youtube_gdata_player

AT sounds sour on Apple don’t you think? For someone who used to answer questions about Apple as: “Apple world loves us”… now talks about Apple as a forgone conclusion in the iPhone vs. Google Android battle of the giants. Google Android is a new entrant to the smartphone arena and anyone worth listening to in this technology space would tell you: “it’s too early to tell who would be the leader… if there is going to be one at all in the first place?”

AT sounds sour on Apple and there may be a good reason for it.

Vast majority of technologists with-in Apple camp are convinced that pico projection technology is not mature enough to risk the integrity of their established technology offering… like computing, MP3 player, or mobile me platform [iPad, iPhone]. Unless there is an Apple product genre that offers pico projection as a primary function… there is very little chance of a pico projector making its way into the existing Apple product line? Unfortunately, that is not the only issue.

Another issue with an embedded pico projector inside any of the Apple product line, according to my sources, are the concern for primary product reliability and common mode failure caused by or because of the embedded pico projector functionality.

The reasoning goes like this...

“Pico projection is relatively new technology; with very little, if any, proven performance and reliability track record. If the pico projector goes on the fritz, the primary functionality of the iPad, iPhone or iWhatever is lost and the entire unit must be repaired or replaced”

That does not sound too good for embedded pico projectors for the Apple product line… at least for now.

However, all is not lost.

Smart companies have figured out the way around Apple’s position on embedded pico projectors. They are coming out with hand held pico projectors as an accessory unit for the Apple products─ like Microvision SHOWwx for one example, or as a docking station for the Apple mobile me products [iPod, iPhone, iPad] with added bells and whistles.

Anant Goel

Disclaimer: These comments are author’s personal observations and opinions and are based on his own research conducted recently.

Next Paradigm Shift: The Internet Would Democratize Broadcasting and Content Delivery

Over the last few years, there has been such a confluence of technologies in so many different sectors that it is about to bring several paradigm shifts… and in the process shape our lives and also open-up new frontiers to commercial opportunities.

There is a long list of paradigm shifts taking place right under our noses while we work, play or snooze. As the title suggests, here we will just focus on: How Internet Would Democratize Broadcasting and Content Delivery.

How attractive does a new technology have to be to warrant adoption and utilization?

It all started with YouTube and the beginning of ‘broadcast your self” phenomenon in the year 2005.

YouTube is free; and is a video-sharing website on which users can upload, share, and view videos. YouTube uses Adobe Flash Video technology to display a wide variety of user-generated video content, including movie clips, TV clips, and music videos, as well as, amateur content such as video blogs and short original videos. In the early days, most all of the content on YouTube was uploaded by individuals, although there were some early adopter media corporations including CBS, BBC, VEVO and other organizations that offered some of their material via the site, as part of the YouTube partnership program.

Unregistered users can watch the videos, while registered users are permitted to upload an unlimited number of videos. Videos that are considered to contain potentially offensive content are available only to registered users 18 and older.

Before the launch of YouTube, there were only a few easy methods available for ordinary computer users who wanted to post videos online. However, with its simple interface, YouTube made it possible for anyone with an Internet connection to post a video that a worldwide audience could watch within a few minutes. The wide range of topics covered by YouTube has turned video sharing into one of the fastest growing and most important part of Internet culture.

Follow the Eyeballs

Consumer demand for service providers to deliver content to any device, at any time and in any location is growing more prevalent each year. Consumers are gaining additional control over how they access content, whether it’s through personal computers, mobile devices or set-top boxes… challenging service providers’ traditional walled living room offerings and in the process threatening their position in the content delivery value chain.

“All service providers need to do is follow the eyeballs,” said Stef van der Ziel, Jet-Stream CEO. “Thanks to the Internet, consumers are revolutionizing the way they access content, and content owners and advertisers are following their lead. Service providers don’t want to be left behind; they want a portion of the content distribution opportunity.”

To do this, service providers must evolve from triple play services─ offering phone, Internet and video, to ‘open play’ platforms that deliver content to all four screens─ PC, Mobile client, TV and the pico projector.

Technology: Deployment of the “Four Screens CDN”

Anyone with commercial interests in streaming media services and CDN [content delivery network] technologies; and that has ever produced a video for YouTube or a web cast, will tell you that the Internet would democratize broadcasting. If a college dropout with heavy interest in media and technology could broadcast video globally on YouTube, then anyone would be able to do so. In a matter of time, all content would be distributed via the web to PC’s, mobile clients, and TV’s and pico projectors. The signs are all around you… just look at the latest products and services offered by Apple, Amazon, NetFlix, Hulu, ESPN and so on.

Years ago, I envisioned a future where consumers and companies would not be locked in walled living rooms… and content owners could distribute content directly to consumers. It was just a matter of time, people and companies [like Apple, NetFlix, Hulu, ESPN] would use the Internet to share content. I also foresaw that the Internet could not handle the sheer volumes of content. There would be a huge need for smart distribution technologies. Telcos will have to follow the eyeballs and embrace Internet based content and consumption on all four screens─ the PC, mobile client, TV, and pico projector by deploying intelligent CDNs.

The Open Play

Enormous amount of resources will be spent to scale the web for professional and massive content delivery; to democratize broadcasting, to disrupt the traditional cable and broadcasting industry and to break open this market so anyone could create, distribute and consume content, anywhere, without borders.

Continued Market Growth Ahead for CDNs

In 2008, the entire global market for video delivery services was only $400 million, according to Frost & Sullivan. That’s a really small number when compared to the overall CDN market size or many of the other segments of the infrastructure market. It shows that the CDN market still has a long way to go and that many opportunities still exist.

Most content owners still don’t make any money with their content, but just imagine what the CDN market will look like when they do. CDNs will be even more crucial down the road as content owners rely on them to help them generate revenue. In the next few years, as more devices [like Apple TV, iPhone, iPad] come to the market, consumers will begin to adopt them in large numbers—then the market will change.

While many ask when this is going to happen and what the next tipping point will be that gives CDNs the next surge of traffic, you have to remember that it does not happen overnight. Many use the example of YouTube and 2007 as being the year that the CDN market really exploded. But what most people didn’t see, or don’t know about, is all the work that was taking place in the CDN space leading up to that event in the years before. Companies worked very hard from 2004 to 2007—none of that perceived growth in 2007 truly happened overnight.

Today, we’re building the market size for CDNs every single day. Even with the poor economy, you don’t see less content online… you see more. You don’t see poorer quality video… you see HD. You don’t see fewer devices… you see more platforms than ever before. This is what we’re building on. So when it seems like there is a sudden surge in the CDN business years from now, with or without Telco’s, remember that it did not happen overnight.

Tough times for many of the vendors in the CDN space may be coming to an end. All industries need corrections, and the CDN industry is no different. The bottom line is that the CDN industry has never been stronger, has never been more needed, and will only continue to evolve to help do more than just deliver some bits from point A to point B.

In the future, private CDNs─ like the one rumored at Apple, will flourish. Streaming media analyst Dan Rayburn reported last year that Apple was planning to bring some of its CDN capabilities in-house. “Folks I have spoken to inside Apple told me that once the new data center is completed, Apple plans to have a more active role in doing their own content delivery,” Rayburn wrote, noting a precedent. “While its way too early to speculate what kind of content Apple will deliver and in what volume, this strategy is nearly identical to what we’ve seen Microsoft do over the years.”

In closing, I must re-state that most CDNs will become profitable, some will be worth acquiring, and many content owners will be willing to pay more for a service that makes them money. We’re all waiting for this time to come. And while it won’t come overnight, I think it will happen sooner than many people may realize.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Ultimate in Mobility… Functionality… Cool Factor (update 9/2010)

It would be cool if Microvision's laser PicoP Display Engine was inside this cube…
http://www.psfk.com/2009/05/60-inch-screen-in-your-pocket.html

Last year, there was so much speculation in the media [by designer YankoDesign] that it almost felt like the real thing would be on the market soon. Just look at the write-up on this “Nokia Pulse Projector” from last year…

“Nokia Pulse Projector is a tiny LED projector that also functions as an NXT speaker with Dolby Sound. This tiny projector uses Bluetooth and Pulse software to communicate with a mobile phone.

It’s meant to pair up with mobile phone, making a pair of perfect multimedia device and the user will be able to use the mobile phone to control this LED projector. The Nokia Pulse Projector relies on DLP Technology for high quality imagery. It’s able to project with native resolution of 1280×768 and 1500:1 contrast ratio pimps out crisp image quality, with picture sizes ranging from 15 inches diagonally all the way up to 60 inches at 7.87 feet. It even sports LED light technology with 1000 lumens of brightness plus 16.7 million colors.

It’ll be another great mini-sized projector that can be carried around anywhere you go for an impromptu presentation of those pictures, videos and slides on your mobile phone, and it lets the mobile phone to be used as the projector’s remote. Nice, but it should be just a concept at the moment."

[via yankodesign]

*****

Here’s the link…
http://askalexia.com/2009/05/23/nokia-pulse-projector/

Here’s some more on this Nokia Pulse with Microvision Mobile Projector inside speculation…

“The Nokia Pulse, a concept by Miika Mahonen, is similar to the soon to be released Microvision Mobile Projector. They’re both designed to be powerful mobile display systems that can use a mobile phone as the source of video and as a remote control. The Nokia Pulse also combines an NXT-speaker with Dolby sound processing into the compact device, which can (theoretically) project images up to 60-inches on any wall.”

Continues…
[via Yanko Design]

*****

Here’s the link…
http://www.psfk.com/2009/05/60-inch-screen-in-your-pocket.html

One year later, however, the concept remains to be just that… a concept. But wait a minute… over the last year, a few developments have come together to bring us closer to this, or something similar to this, as a possible reality in the near future.

There are essentially three parts for this concept to work and they all seem to be in place now…

• Microvision laser based PicoP Projector SHOWwx: was released in the US in March of 2010… and that’s the major part of the puzzle now in place.

The award-winning SHOWwx, available for sale through a variety of distributors and at http://www.microvision.com/showwx, is a standalone laser pico projector intended for simple plug-and-play integration with mobile devices, such as iPod, cell phones, MP3 players, laptops and gaming devices.

• Samsung's new Wireless USB chipset: enables HD streaming with less power.

It's a beautiful combination, really… lower power consumption, and support for high bandwidth applications. That marriage is evident in Samsung's newest Wireless USB chipset, which was built around Ultra Wide Band (UWB) technology and designed to enable high-def streaming between a mobile host device and a tethered device for viewing.

Ultra-Wide Band technology offers many advantages, especially in terms of very high data transmission rates which are well beyond those possible with currently deployed technologies such as 802.11a, b, g, WiMax and the like. As such UWB technology is gaining considerable acceptance and being proposed for use in a number of areas. Already Bluetooth, Wireless USB and others are developing solutions, and in these areas alone its use should be colossal.

According to Samsung, the two-chip solution will be aimed at cameras, camcorders, TVs, PCs, tablets, beam projectors, portable HDDs, Blu-ray players and handsets, and given that it can handle a theoretical high of 480Mbps with an average power consumption of less than 300mW, even the weakest smartphone battery should be able to stream at least a single episode of Family Guy to the TV or a pico projector. It's slated to hit mass production in Q4 and we'd say more details should be available right around CES 2011.

• Pulse Software: that controls communications between the pico projector and the mobile host device. This Pulse software could be part of the Samsung’s wireless USB chipset solution, or a company specific product like… Nokia Pulse [if there is such a thing]…or Apple AirPlay… etc.

“While the Pulse is still just an idea, Microvision is currently working with other companies to incorporate their PicoP Display Engine into devices such as phones, media players, and laptops. Is screen size on your mobile phone irrelevant if you can project onto any wall?”

Perhaps!

Just take a look…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypZO6_7hcNQ&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0

With Microvision laser PicoP Display Engine in-side; this cube could be the ultimate in mobility, functionality and cool factor.

Not only that, it is a productivity enhancing tool for business communications, as well as, a perfect product for personal and interactive entertainment… all in one cool package.

Everything that you need to put this cool product out there for the consumer to buy is here… all it takes, is the vision and the will to succeed before the next product cycle or someone else comes-up with a better mouse trap.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Apple─ The Media Player OEM?

At the Microvision shareholder’s meeting on September 15th, 2009, there were some questions asked about OEM relationship with Apple.

My take on CEO Alex Tokman’s answer was something like: “Apple World loves us and we have to be ready… I just ask you that you be patient.” In all probability, Microvision was in talks with “Apple”, however, there wasn't enough unit volume of PicoP Display Engines for Apple’s appetite at that time to be engaged officially.

Fast forward to today, last day of August 2010…

A year later, you may want to re-visit the questions about Apple in light of Microvision’s $11.1 million order from a [non-disclosed] Media Player OEM for the embedded PDEs…

• $11.1 million in initial order is not a small order by any means… because after the initial order, all of Microvision production could go to this OEM on a monthly basis. And these monthly orders represent about $12 million per Qtr [20,000pm x 3m x $200per unit = $12 million] in the first half of 2011… and increasing.

• With 5 Green Laser suppliers, the unit production can easily be ramped –up to 100,000 units per month… and that’s a decent production run for any Premium Media Player OEM like Apple or NetFlix.

• With diode GL coming into play some time in 2011, number of units can only go higher than the 100,000 per month… and that’s not shabby at all.

• Since announcing the Media Player OEM early this year, Microvision has been very tight lipped about the identity of this OEM… which is a typical modus of operands for any of the Apple suppliers. A small time OEM would probably follow the example of rest of the OEM flock in the CE industry─ where it is a common practice to earn some free publicity by announcing new products in the pipe line.

• CEO of Microvision has, on more than one occasion, stated publicly that the Media Player OEM would announce the product on its own time schedule before the 2010 Christmas shopping season. Well, early September is a good time to announce new products for the 2010 seasonal shopping… don’t you think? Apple will be making product announcements on September 1st … now that’s some coincidence!!!

• On March 8th, 2010, Microvision announced two new members of the management team: Joe O'Sullivan as Vice President of Global Operations and Michael Fritts as Vice President of Global Sales, Marketing, and Business Development.

Mr. O'Sullivan is a consumer electronics industry veteran with executive management experience at Apple Computer and InFocus. At Apple, Mr. O'Sullivan spent 15 years in operations and supply chain management, including Vice President of Operations where he was instrumental in building a global operations infrastructure in Asia. In addition, he developed Apple's International Procurement Organization strategy, building a structure in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Europe.

Today, a day before Apple’s new product introduction on September 1st , we hear this rumor about: “New iPod May Include Projector”.  Could it be Microvision’s laser based PicoP projector inside the Apple’s new premium iPod?

We just have to wait and see.

Here’s the link to the rumor news…
http://www.benzinga.com/company-news/contracts/10/08/450653/new-ipod-may-include-projector-mvis-aapl

While we wait, let’s look at Apple’s secret to success…

“Show and Sell”

All the while the competition…

"Flashes an exotic prototype, then – Presto! – get consumers to buy their more boring stuff. That kind of thinking still rules at most electronics companies. Apple under Steve Jobs only shows off actual products. And that difference is Apple’s arcane secret to success."

Like washed-up Catskill magicians unable to let go of old routines while a brash upstart steals their audience, nearly every maker of consumer electronics in the world clings to a quaint song-and-dance about prototypes.

“Here is your possible future,” they bark, flourishing the latest conceptual product from the lab. “Now watch us make it disappear!”

Apple’s chief magician, however, knows better, pulling solid objects out of the ether; products you can actually buy.

No one can be sure until the rumors lead the way to actual news in the media or corporate announcements.

But if you think it is possible, than rest assure it can happen someday.

If this sounds like a minor complaint about most of the industry’s lack of imagination in marketing, you’re misunderstanding the whole act. The fact that Apple does not reveal prototypes but shipping products; is the fundamental difference between their entire business strategy and that of the rest of the CE industry. It evokes a feeling of trust between Apple and consumers – that when Apple actually reveals a product, it’s something that they’re confident enough to support for years to come.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Investors Are Just Frustrated

Definition of “Frustration”…

• The act of frustrating or an instance of being frustrated
• The state of being frustrated
• Something that serves to frustrate

Let's add one more definition to the word frustration...

“waiting for definitive plans and answers to simple question from Microvision while being told that the management will disclose them soon by the next CC… or some other future event that has come and gone by the way side over the last 4 years.”

How dare we worry about where our investment dollars are going when it's such a small part of the big picture of: “the holly grail of embedded PicoP projectors in the billion unit mobile world?” What frustrates us now is another article about the Green Laser price and availability. It sounded like yet another warning, by those in the industry, why a laser based PicoP will fail because of Green Laser pricing issues. I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the issue, but can somebody please throw some light on this 4 year old issue of GL availability, pricing and stability issues as they affect the profit margins and eventual success of laser based PicoP projectors.

Here’re some more thoughts on frustration…

• Having the wool pulled over our eyes is frustrating;
• Lack of communications in spoken English is frustrating;
• Waiting for straight answers is frustrating;
• Having legitimate concerns brushed aside is frustrating;
• Being told to take the pain and ignore the small stuff is frustrating;
• Watching the market price of MVIS drift lower and lower is frustrating, too.

There is enough dry powder on the sidelines to send this market [and MVIS stock price] significantly higher, even into the plus column for the year. But, would-be buyers continue to be stymied as each day brings more questions rather than answers and we keep hearing how off base our concerns are. While panic has become the permanent aroma that greets investors each day, I sense frustration could be moving the market more than any other feeling these days, and certainly over the last few days.

I'm getting emails and phone calls and I know that many folks just want to throw in the towel out of frustration and a lack of confidence. Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be just fine and at the end of the day [in mid 2011] Microvision investor will come out whole.

If you are wondering “why mid 2011”…

Here’s what I have finally figured out…

• Currently, the quantities of synthetic green lasers and the ASICs are too small─ like 5,000 to 10,000 units per month, and the cost is relatively too expensive… thus the negative profit margins. The key word is “relatively”… meaning product cost [in such small quantities] is more than the transfer price that can be charged to the OEMs at a suggested retail price of $549.

• To put it another way; if the retail price was increased to $649 and the transfer price charged to OEMs also raised by say $60… than the relative cost of product─ at such small quantities, may NOT be, relatively speaking, too expensive… thus the potential for positive profit margins.

However, the recent drop of $100 in the retail price of SHOWwx [from $549 to $449] mucks the waters yet again and that is frustrating. Does this mean that the price of synthetic green lasers has come down significantly to a point where Microvision can charge less for SHOWwx and still make some profit? Well, that is one thought… as in one side of the coin so to speak.

The other side of the coin could be; that Microvision needs to clear old stock at a loss in anticipation of second generation PDEs that are expected to be cheaper, smaller, more energy efficient and with higher 15- lumen brightness and 720P HD resolution.

We don’t know for sure one way or the other… and that is frustrating.

The current debate between synthetic green lasers versus the diode [direct] green lasers got so confusing at the 2nd Qtr earnings CC that Microvision CEO responded with a Blog post at The Displayground to clear-up the matter.

Here’s the link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1761#comments

Green Laser Diodes Are On the Way, In the Meantime If Done Right Synthetic Green Lasers Have an Embedded Play

What I find very interesting is the comment about…

“We have already begun to see availability of the first generation synthetic lasers increase. The next generation synthetic green lasers are expected to be more efficient and less expensive than their first generation cousins. We also anticipate that the direct green lasers targeted for introduction in the second half of next year may not reach desired performance and cost targets immediately. For these reasons, we believe that synthetic lasers could continue to remain a competitive alternative to direct green lasers for at least the first 4-5 years after diodes are introduced.”

From the CEO comments about synthetic lasers, it is now clear that they have 4-5 years as the economic life cycle… before the diode green laser mature and become cost competitive. Considering the potential volume sales of laser based pico projectors over the next 5 years, which could easily run into 200-300 million units, there’s enough incentive for the synthetic green laser manufactures to ramp-up production with corresponding drop in prices.

I see two opportunities for cost reduction, and a very strong possibility of profitable margins, in the near future…

• Next generation green lasers and ASICs should be coming out in the next three or four months and they are more efficient and less expensive… and that bodes well for positive margins.

• A significantly large order from an OEM, in the 50,000 to 100,000 units per month range, will not only motivate the synthetic Green Laser suppliers, Corning and Osram, to crank-up the production lines… but it will also help reach the critical volume in terms of quantities that would result in some dramatic price drop.

With next generation synthetic Green Laser supply continuing to improve over the rest of year 2010, it is just the matter of time that a visionary company like Apple will come waltzing down the aisle to embed Microvision’s PDEs in their smartphones, iPads or iPods etc. If it is not Apple or NetFlix initially, it will be someone else… you can bet on that.

It may not be quite apparent to the naked eye; but with a little diligence the negative profit margins issue is just a short term anomaly that should correct itself in the next three to four months.

In the meantime, we are just frustrated!

Anant Goel

Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman

For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade, your management team is awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales. Granted, the backorders and future product introductions do count; but then again who knows for sure what the future would bring, and if the delivery would be made at profitable terms.

Market does not like the lack of any significant news for extended periods and reacts by selling [and short selling] the Microvision stock. Just over the last one week, the stock price has dropped by 30% [down from $3.60 to $2.64]. This kind of price drop, it seems, has become a norm for Microvision stock after every Qtr earnings CC or the Annual Share Holders meeting.

Lack of news; or lack of any visible signs of product promotion, marketing, or sales does not build confidence in Microvision business model… and as a result, more and more investors [and supporters] abandon the MVIS stock every time there is carnage in its market price.

I don’t know if you realize how important the Microvision investors are to the well being, survival, and future prosperity of your [our] company?

Think about this…

At this early stage of the game, your first wave of prospective customers will be the Microvision investors [their family & friends], employees, vendors, hot leads from trade shows, and a few live ones from the ROV customer base. That’s your “hot” prospective customer base that you can easily tap for “placing the sensors in the ground”.

There are over 1,000 investors of MVIS stock that track the company’s news like a hawk on a daily basis. Each one of us [investors] has at least 200 people in our center of influence. If you do the math and add-up all the numbers you get over 200,000 people that would love to provide comments [and feed back] and be part of this paradigm changing technology at this early stage.

President-elect Obama used the Internet to reach out to millions [and continues to do so to this day] in a very short period of time and raised over $1billion in donations for his Presidential election. If Obama can evangelize his “Change We Need” slogan, then why can’t Microvision do the same with its “PicoP Green Machine” slogan? Let’s face it… sooner or later Microvision will have a HD PicoP Projector/TV that could provide large screen HDTV experience to a billion people in energy starved China and India. In the U.S. and Europe, it could easily replace millions of power hungry LCD/Plasma TVs in every room.

Investors need more frequent news on product developments; and also need to see visible signs of activity in promotions, marketing and sales… no matter how small. It keeps us interested and engaged. Share more information with us [Microvision investors] and make us part of your viral marketing strategy. It costs you nothing and results could be 200,000 times better than what an expensive team of executives with fancy titles would bring to the table.

For a moment think Apple…
To succeed like Apple, companies need to understand more deeply the consumer they are targeting. Apple recognizes that it can't have everyone as its customer. It is willing to alienate some segments by appealing to a strong core of people that sociologists refer to as the Cultural Creatives. These are the people who wait in line overnight for the latest iPod, iPhone, or the iPad. Focusing on the Cultural Creatives in turn attracts followers who might not otherwise trust the brand.

[The concept is presented in the book The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are Changing the World (2000), where the authors claim to have found that 50 million adult Americans who can now be identified as belonging to this group. They estimated that there were an additional 80 to 90 million Cultural Creatives in Europe as of 2000.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Creatives

Observe the next 10 people you see on the street with an iPod and ask your self how many of them represent the Cultural Creatives featured in Apple's advertising.

One, may be two?

Address your core audience… and the rest will follow. That's how you sell 10 million iPods in one quarter.

In the hands of an artful company like Apple, design is the vehicle for driving meaningful, relevant experiences that are authentic to the brand. It's not about paring product lines or making cool stuff. Done right, design can add value to the bottom line and the brand. However, design done right goes beyond the appearance and behavior of the object itself. It takes the entire product ecosystem into consideration. Design done right sees technology as an enabler, not just the solution.

Apple creates holistic experiences that inspire customers, strategic partners like accessory manufacturers, and content providers to build up the platform. Apple understands: “It's not about market share. It's about mind share.”

There are two ways to reach this group of prospective Microvision customers... the first is by more frequent e-mails… and the second is more organized, like the formation of “PicoP Green Machine User’s Group”. With that as a means to reach out and touch, you could hold the interest and engage your core Cultural Creatives… in exchange for latest news or sneak-peak at the technology that could save the Planet Earth.

You know what I mean? You get the idea!

It doesn’t cost you anything and it can build your e-mail list very quickly. Think “Obama” every time you want to reach out and touch millions in a hurry.

The foresight to go live with your Blog “The Diaplayground” was an excellent idea in this internet driven world… and the timing could not be any better. Perfect stroke of genius!

However, there is total lack of response to visitor posts at your Blog site… and that is the second issue.

I expect customers, investors, vendors and competitors to dominate the ranks of visitors that lurk The Displayground.

As investors, we are a fickle bunch and our Blog posts tend to be skewed towards topics that effect our financial investment in Microvision. We tend to be long term investors but the current volatility can be devastating… and as such, we doubt our good judgment from time to time. Sometimes our questions may be direct, inquiring, frustrating, out-of-line, etc. Some of us, at times, can’t say what we mean or mean what we say. However, we mean no disrespect, malice or harm. Now, with your corporate governance legal frame work in place, your team may or may not respond to [or even publish] our comments from time to time. We would understand your position in such a situation. However, there are ways to answer a comment, without violating legal rules and regulations, and still maintain the flow of dialog with the Blog participant.

I guess it all goes back to: “the beginning of openness and sharing of the truth with integrity and trust.”

Openness and sharing truth with integrity are important to investors… both large and small.

Anant Goel

PS: "Strive for simplicity, innovation, human-centered interaction, visual interest, and efficiency." This is the calling card for all businesses for the future.

Microvision: Pico Projector Consumer is Well and Alive

Economists and investors cheered the 2nd Qtr 2010 earnings results from Apple Inc. (AAPL), saying it was a sign that the global consumer is alive and well. The company sold a mind boggling 2.94 million Mac PCs, 10.89 million iPods, and close to 8.75 million iPhones in a three-month time span. And these numbers do not include the 3 million iPads sold since April.

First, here’re the Apple numbers for the 2nd Qtr 2010…

• Total sales: $13.5 billion, up 48.6% year over year
• Earnings: $3.33 per share. up 86%
• Profit: $3.07 billion, up 89.5%
• Mac sales: 2.94 million units, up 33%
• iPhone sales: 8.75 million units, up 131%
• iPod sales: 10.89 million units, down 1%
• iPod touch sales: up 66%; iPod revenue up 12%
• Apple store visitors: 47 million in 286 retail outlets, up 20%
• Gross margin: 41.7%, up from 39.9% last year
• Cash and marketable securities: $41.7 billion, up $1.9 billion since December
• Guidance for the third fiscal quarter: revenue between $13 and $13.4 billion, EPS between $2.28 and $2.39, gross margin 36%

Wow, that doesn’t sound like a recession. But is that really good news or is there something unnerving about all that spending in this harsh recession that we should be concerned about?

Could it be that people spent money in a haphazard manner? Or they spent money [just to keep-up with the Jones] when they really should have been saving?

Either way, I expect the laser based PicoP Projector to follow the same buying pattern as the iPods, iPhones, and iPads.

[Note: Just to be sure we are on the same page; let me qualify that statement with a caveat… it’s the first second half of 2011 that I’m talking about; when the green lasers have become plentiful and their price has come down significantly from the current levels.]

Here’s a story [that I read somewhere] to explain why…

“In the 1970s, Harlem was one of the poorest neighborhoods in the nation, but it was a money making machine for people selling expensive clothes, sneakers, and cars. Before it opened, there was much concern that a McDonald’s in the hood would be an abject failure.

As it turns out, the first McDonald’s in Harlem became the number one selling restaurant for the chain in the entire world for years. Back then, there were street vendors who lived in the community and the money they made circulated among the people that earned it. However, for the most part it was like there was a giant vacuum cleaning hose sucking up all disposable, and not-so-disposable, money out of the hood.

Nothing was more peculiar than the need to own “Air Jordan” sneakers. Mothers that scrubbed floors for minimum wage had to drop $200 to make sure their children fit-in and were part of the hip crowd. Households that sustained themselves on welfare checks also felt the same pressure. Demand for these overpriced shoes never waned even after waves of violence, even murder, was being committed to own them. It was the ultimate status symbol, one that made you cool and one that also made you a potential candidate for the morgue. It was American consumerism at its best. It brought out what John Maynard Keynes called “animal spirits.” The desire to own these ultra expensive sneakers also brought out what sociologists might also brand “animal spirits”, too.

After fueling the growth of the world for decades, it is clear that the American consumer is now struggling. One lesson we’ve all learned over the years is that prosperity can be fleeting. In fact, in a blink of an eye it seems like all of our wealth vanished and somehow landed in China. It’s such a fascinating reversal of fortunes, but it underscores the notion of fiscal prudence. Those “Air Jordan” sneakers that were all the rage in Harlem were made by peasants in China whose annual income was so small they couldn’t afford to live [in Harlem] for one week. China isn’t the financial juggernaut it is because there are 1.3 billion people there; the cheap labor source of the world belies the notion of becoming wealthy. Their secret was saving. Saving money for years, living on the bare minimum, fixated on the future.

With that in mind, iPods, iPhones, and iPads are today’s “Air Jordan” sneakers… hip, stylish, and must have gadgets… but not a necessity.

Stuff We (don’t) Need but Must Have:

Ironically, the Pew Research Center released its latest survey on things that the public believes are  necessities. The results are somewhat shocking. There were huge percentage decreases for clothes dryers, home air conditioning (maybe it will be higher in July than April), television sets, and microwaves. In fact, there were only a few items listed that more people believe are necessities now versus 2006. High speed internet access increased 2%, but only 31% said it was a necessity. Flat screen televisions increased the most, up 3%. Then, there were those iPods, again, increasing 1% to 4%. Like many surveys, much could be made of the results. On one hand, it could suggest less materialism.

But this list isn’t about chasing the Jones; rather it’s about basic stuff that is within reach of most Americans… like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. There is no doubt that income, or lack thereof, played a major role as respondents are certainly feeling the pinch. A whopping 57% said that they’ve bought less expensive brands or shopped more at discount stores… this is evident in the moves of stocks such as Family Dollar Store, 99 Cents Only Stores, and CitiTrends. Perhaps a silver lining is the 28% that said they’ve cut back on alcohol and cigarettes.

Here’s the link to Pew Research Center survey database…

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/395.pdf

There are so many other things people are doing to adjust to their current circumstances. The sharp decline in what people think they need, however, is remarkable. Maybe there is something else afoot in this story.

Still, there is another way to look at the results. In some ways I believe that people may be taking many things for granted… things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. I kind of lean that way, and it’s not just that we think an air conditioner is less important but some people think we don’t need more ships and jet fighters to protect us. Heck, this weekend we fired up the air conditioners in our house. If asked a week earlier I may have been inclined to say air conditioning wasn’t a necessity, but after a two hour bike ride in the blazing sun I felt like a walking volcano and at that moment the ice cube maker and AC were right up there with Guttenberg’s printing press as the greatest inventions ever.

One of the side effects of a horrific economic slide is a sense of defeat as well. However, we can’t be so down in the dumps as to become vulnerable to so many things, including the shifting away from the things that made the nation great in the first place… our innovation and the high tech industry to fuel the future prosperity.”

Yes, I do expect to see the global consumers buying millions upon millions of more iPods, iPhones, iPads… and of course, the PicoP projectors.

The next popular product categories that integrate PicoP projectors would be fixed and mobile computing devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as smartphones, digital photo frames, personal media players, digital cameras, and digital camcorders.

“As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded picoprojectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat.

In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that pico projectors will become part and parcel of billions of relatively low cost cell phones and media players.

“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.

The future for pico projectors is guaranteed since there is evidence of consumers willing to pay more for additional technologies such as good quality cameras, reported TMCnet, to be included in a single hand held mobile device.

Anant Goel
[Edited By]

Microvision: One More Purchase Order in Next Two Weeks?

First, the good news…

Microvision Completes Design of New PicoP Laser Display Engine for Mobile Embedded Applications

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday March 29, 2010, 7:29 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has completed the design and begun shipping initial evaluation samples to several prospective customers of its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine.

Continues…

*****

Here’s the link…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Completes-Design-bw-3543654902.html?x=0&.v=1

Then, the exciting news…

Microvision Receives $8.5 Million Purchase Order for New PicoP Laser Projection Display Engine

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday April 5, 2010, 7:06 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has received an $8.5 million purchase order for its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine from a consumer electronics customer. The OEM plans to embed the PicoP engine inside a high-end mobile media player for release in late 2010 and plans to announce its launch at that time.

Continues…

*****

Here’s the link…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Receives-85-bw-2670010777.html?x=0&.v=1

Now for some projections [pun intended] into the future…

There are four areas that I would like to focus on…

1. SHOWwx was just the beginning of things to come

2. Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology

3. More Purchase Order to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production.

4. Case for brighter [like 20 lumens] PicoP Display Engines for the embedded version.

SHOWwx Just the Beginning of Things to Come:
On March 24th, Microvision started selling its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx to the US market… selling them directly; from its on-line web store for a handsome profit. When you sell directly; your margins are always better because of the savings in middleman’s commission. By the next earnings conference call; we would find out for sure what sales revenue and profit margins are from on-line sale of SHOWwx.

On April 5th, Microvision confirmed the receipt of a purchase order for $8.5 million dollars for its ultra miniature PDE… and that is the part that confirms my view that SHOWwx and the $8.5 million purchase order is the just the beginning of things to come.

Here’s why…
Potential markets for laser based PicoP Display Engine technology is not only huge… but it is also a high margin market opportunity. If you were to consider the high-end Media Player market alone… the possibilities are enormous…

Low Power Front Projection Media Players for the Third World Countries:

Think about 2.5 billion people in India and China... as they represent the potential buyers of a low power front projection portable TV/Media Player that offers a large screen [40'' to 100''] high definition always in focus vivid and bright color viewing experience. Extremely low ENERGY consumption [like 10 watts or less] and portability is the key market demand factor here. Energy will become more and more scarce and expensive by leaps and bounds…whereas the portability allows for sharing of resources among friends and family.

Low Power Front Projection Media Player for the Master Bedroom:

Think about a billion bedrooms globally that could use a ceiling projector... for adding another dimension to the various ways of media consumption for information and entertainment. We have desired the bedroom viewing of television for ever, so it seems, and some of us may have installed televisions in the bedroom. However, now it is possible to add, by the millions, a low power media player with built-in PicoP projector in our bedrooms… that offers short throw ratio, wide screen, high definition, bright and vivid color, and always in focus viewing experience. Media player/projector runs on low power batteries... so no risk of electrocuting yourself. No significant heat... so you won't burn yourself. No heavy duty TV to install on the bedroom wall.

Low Power Portable Projection Media Player for Every Bedroom in the House:

All you need is one portable Media Player with built-in PicoP projector… that gets moved around from room to room when and where it’s needed. It certainly is a cheaper alternative than buying a TV for each room of the house. This portable Media Player can also be the one you pack with your bags… when you are on the go.

Market Size for Portable Media Players with built-in PicoP Projectors is huge… like in billions world-wide. The most recent order for $8.5 million from the Consumer Electronic Company is just the beginning of what’s to come and not the end.

Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology:
Some have questioned the laser PicoP as “core” technology [like CPUs from Intel] vs. “commodity” technology [like cell phone touch screen and cameras].

My take on the subject is as follows...

Picop [the generic version] is an enabling technology and therefore a commodity... no question about that.

However, laser PicoP is a core technology and that's how it is being positioned by Microvision. Picop technology from TI or 3M will not create [or capture] as large a market as laser PicoP would... due to inherent image quality and functionality only possible due to lasers being used as the light source.

Microvision laser PicoP technology will capture its fair share of the captive markets but it would go-on-further and create markets that are only possible because of laser PicoP. And that's not the commodity markets by any means. Microvision recognizes that right from the beginning; and therefore is positioning the PicoP Display Engines accordingly… by using the “Image by PicoP” insignia on every thing related to its technology.

There will be others with laser picop technology down the road... and that's why Microvision is churning out these patents by the dozens… to protect its IP turf. Also, the "Image by PicoP" is part of this marketing strategy that positions Microvision PicoP technology as a "core" and not "commodity" right from day one. From what I have seen, and there is plenty of evidence for you to see as well, Microvision is charging a premium price for its PicoP technology. Just look at SHOWwx Limited Edition sold at $999 and the Commercial Edition currently for sale at $549.

I hope you can appreciate the difference... because it’s worth billions of dollars when it is executed with knowledge, passion, and gumption.

More Purchase Orders to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production:
If there was another Purchase Order next week, would that convince you that Osram and Corning are ramping-up production of their green lasers faster than expected?

Here’s what I’m thinking…

Many OEMs have sampled the first version PEKs from last year. Now the second generation PEKs, for embedded applications, are going out and dramatically improve upon what has been tested before! I believe that the embedded version of the PicoP Display Engine is brighter [over 20 lumens], smaller and consumes less energy.

In other words, time to market for these OEMs has collapsed to a point that few more may be interested in bringing PicoP embedded digital devices to the market for the coming Christmas season. I don’t think the Japanese and Koreans are going to let APPLE hog all the discretionary income of the America consumer for the iPad.

The case for brighter PicoP Display Engine for Embedded Application…
Corning has been slow to ramp-up due to improvements in their SHG green laser technology… that is the switch from “wave guided SHG laser” to “SIDM-based adaptive optics SHG laser” technology. I remember, from a year ago in a conversation with the Corning Product Manager, that G-2000 green laser would incorporate enhancements leading to brighter pictures… with a target goal of 20 lumens or better.

Here’re some links…

Corning G-1000 laser design [at 10 lumens with 10:1 contrast ratio] and the SIDM-based adaptive optics technology…
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=14329

Corning G-2000 laser pumps more lumens [like 23 lumens] at a reduced contrast ratio of 3:1 …
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=12733

Corning licked its waveguided SHG laser production issues last year by switching over to SIDM-based adaptive optics technology.

This year, Corning is the wild card with its contrast optimized green laser at 23 lumens.

Microvision future is bright and is getting brighter every day… just like its laser PicoP Display Engine.

Higher stock valuation will come in time… just like the HD resolution on its PicoP projection images.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential

I have always believed investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift; with an eye on the long term growth prospects of the company.

In the last 30 odd years that I have been investing, I have had my share of good fortune and misfortune. However, what’s important is the fact that I managed to secure my financial future and live today to talk about my strategy of investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift. Some of these companies─ like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, and Cisco─ have grown to be huge enterprises and have made their early investors over 10,000% or more since their inception.

A while back I wrote a post about my 14,000% profit experience with Intel during its growth phase from early 80’s to the end of Dot.com era in the year 2000. Here’s the link to that post…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/intel-i-made-over-14000-profit-since.html

I’m one of those old timers that invested in Intel during its early days as a company… in the early 80’s. I recall buying some shares for a total cost of $1,000 dollars. I had to liquidate all my position in Intel during the Dot Com bust of 2000… around May of that year. However, it was not all that bad, because I managed to sell pretty close to the all time high and I remember bragging about my good fortune and fortitude to have stayed the course to make over 14,000% profit… for a net gain of over $140,000 dollars including dividends and the stock splits.

The past performers in my portfolio have served well. However, these companies like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, Cisco, and Microsoft are past their hyper growth phase and are now too big and are just slow earnings growth vehicles. No disrespect to these fine companies… it’s just that they don’t fit the “hyper growth” company model any more.

One of my stocks holding now, besides an options income portfolio, is Microvision. I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.

Here’s why…

On Wall Street, you often hear terms like “top dog” or “first mover” in the context of a growth stock presentation to institutional clients. It’s quite interesting really…

A "top dog" is a company that dominates its industry... and a "first mover" is a company with a technology or product so revolutionary that it disrupts an existing industry and creates an entirely new one.

On the rare occasion that you find a company that is both─ both a top dog and a first mover ─ the chances are pretty good that you've found your next big winner...

Just think of eBay in the online auction market... Amazon in the online retail market... Netflix in the DVD-rental market… and Cisco in the router market… etc.

These companies redefined the way business was done, launched entirely new industries, and continue to dominate those industries to this day. And you don't need me to tell you how handsomely they've rewarded shareholders along the way.

In order to find companies that will deliver truly life-changing investment returns, you have to find growth companies early in their life cycle and truly believe that they are indeed the ones to ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift… with potential of sustained long term growth.

Before we talk about Microvision as the growth company of the future with a 50,000% profit potential, let’s first consider…

Is now really a good time to be buying growth stocks?

The fact is; it takes guts to make money in this market.

But here's some good news…

For one thing, our current economic conditions bear a striking similarity to the economic downturn of the early 1990s. And Morningstar reports that during that recession, “growth” stocks more than doubled the return of "value" stocks.

For another thing, "growth” stocks can excel even if the broad market continues to stumble. In fact, the analysts expect better profit prospects for growth stocks than for value stocks.

Money for nothing...
We have to be realistic in our expectations when searching or investing in growth companies. The purpose of looking at the great companies listed above is not to show that growth investing is an all-win situation. Far from it!

The purpose of the illustration is to demonstrate how well great companies perform over a long period. If you can identify just one great company early, and then hold on for the long term, you can do pretty well for yourself.

Growth investing is highly volatile, and it will fray the nerves of those individuals with a low risk tolerance. Having said that, all investors should devote a portion of their portfolios to growth stocks. For those traveling in the fast lane, an allocation of 30% of their portfolios might make sense. More conservative types should allocate at least 10% in order to provide a little juice for their investments. I'm somewhere in between, so I devote about 20% of my portfolio to growth.

Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential

I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.

In order to become a very successful, profitable and huge company [in terms of market capitalization] you need the following pre-requisites:

Management: with expertise, vision, support network, past record, communicative and persuasive skills and a will to succeed.

In my opinion, we have the best possible management with all the pre-requisite attributes necessary for managing Microvision at this stage of the company’s growth. Here’s a link for your review…

http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/team.html

Financially Sound: with money to support on-going operations, R&D expenditures, product development and commercialization.

According to the latest annual report for period ending December 2009, Microvision had $45.7 million in cash and short term cash instruments. Looking at the financials, the company is burning about $11 million per Qtr. At this rate, the company has about 4 Qtr worth of cash… assuming no additional revenue from product sales or contract payments.

Since we already have a SHOWwx product lunched in the US, Europe and the Asia Pacific region… I would venture to say that most R&D expenses have already been incurred [almost $300 million to date] and net profit from sales could reduce the cash burn by 3-4 million dollars per Qtr. That would stretch the available cash reserves to 7 Qtr or so. It’s ironic, but the investors of the past have funded this massive R&D undertaking to-date. However, the current investors will reap the benefits and are assured the company has cash to fund the on-going operations, product development and embedded PDEs commercialization.

Here’re some links…
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1400178&highlight=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=MVIS

Disruptive Technology: that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.

Microvision’s core technology [PicoP Display Engine] is weaved into five product offerings and each of the product line has the potential of generating billions in revenue:

Vehicle Displays: for automobiles.
http://www.microvision.com/vehicle_displays/index.html

Wearable Displays: a see-through, high-resolution display platform that enables lightweight and fashionable eyewear displays for mobile devices. Microvision’s Color Eyewear platform allows mobile users to access their personal content and services while keeping their vision of the outside world free and clear, letting mobile users stay on the move.

http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/mobile.html

Pico Projector Displays: brings big screens to small devices. The Pico Projector or “PicoP Display Engine” can be embedded in mobile phones, laptop or similarly-sized mobile devices to enable upto 100” full color projection display [with DVD resolution] for applications such as streaming video, digital TV, high resolution photographs, and surfing the net.

Standalone Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/standalone.html

Embedded Unit:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/embedded.html

Applications Gallery:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html

Military Displays: are used across various branches of the U.S. Military including the U.S. Army, and U.S. Army Reserve.
http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/military.html

Laser Bar Code Scanner: features a patent-pending, low-cost, shock-resistant, mechanical/magnetic laser scan engine.
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/index.html

Competitive Advantage: Microvision has over 115 U.S. Patents issued and 79 Patents pending to protect its intellectual property… giving it a huge competitive edge.

http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/index.html

Technologically Feasible: Microvision has five different products in its portfolio. Each product has been demonstrated to be technologically feasible… with some being offered commercially.

PicoP Display Engine technology is based on the proven and mature silicon MEMS laser scanning mirror technology… as demonstrated by their commercially marketed “ROV” bar code scanner system.

http://www.microvision.com/technology/index.html
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/rov.html

The company recently launched the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010.

http://www.microvision.com/showwx/

Microvision has teamed-up with Asia Optical, a global leader in optical component solutions and contract manufacturing, speaks highly of the technological feasibility of the PicoP product. This collaboration focuses on leveraging Asia Optical experience in high-volume design and manufacturing to create a compact, manufacture able and affordable PicoP Display Engine product for Microvision customers. Ultimately, it is expected that PicoP Display Engine will be incorporated into a variety of applications and products in the automotive and mobile consumer electronic products.

The development agreement with Vodafone and Motorola is big for the following reasons…

The deal with the top tier cell-phone companies [Vodafone and Motorola] validates the Microvision technology and its business model.

The deal with Vodafone and Motorola are not exclusive [at this stage] and possibly is the beginning of a relationship that can easily grow into these companies taking equity interest in MVIS… or a possible buyout in the future. As the company [MVIS] has indicated, they are talking to several other large mobile phone and consumer electronics firms.

The top tier cell-phone companies [like Vodafone and Motorola] see value in announcing the relationship with Microvision at this stage of the product development… meaning that the product is within the spec for an embedded device for the cell-phones… and on schedule for early introduction in 2011.

Microvision launched the standalone PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010 and is on schedule to deliver the embedded unit for commercial production in early 2011.

Market Size: The market for PicoP Display Engine is huge. The potential markets are automobiles, mobile phones, smartphones, laptops, PDAs, iPods, iPhones, Pads, digital cameras, camcorders, personal mobile TVs, and the fashion eyewear.

Here are some world-wide statistics...
New autos: sales for 2007 … 49 million units
http://www.metrics2.com/blog/2006/12/28/world_auto_sales_flat_in_2007_china_becomes_no3_re.html

New Mobile Phone Sales: for 2007… 1.15 billion units
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/item/?ci=29702

New Laptop Sales: for 2007 … 207 million units
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,132861-pg,1/article.html

New “PDA’s, iPods, iPhones, Digital Cameras and Camcorders”… over 300 million units

New Eyewear Sale: for 2008… 1 billion units

Personal Mobile TV/Projectors… new market opens up with potential 1 billion units
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html

Technology and Business Partnerships: Microvision has partnered with the biggest [financially], the most respected [for over 100 years] and the best in the business to design and manufacture its PicoP Display Engine for the automotive and consumer electronic markets.

Now what we need is a few more commercial business partners and OEM agreements for the PicoP Display Engine and Wearable Display product line. I am sure it will happen soon and when it does happen the MVIS stock will run up the charts as we have never seen before.

Microvision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…

When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.

Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?

When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.

So what’s Microvision’s “killer app”?

It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.

What makes Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine technology as "Killer app" in simple terms?

1. Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.

2. Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.

3. Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.

4. Large projected images [up to 100”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.

5. High resolution image [848x480] at 10 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 20 lumens or more brightness.

6. Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology matures and economies of scale are achieved.

7. Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next.

The PicoP Display Engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to Microvision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PDE to the rest of Microvision product line of applications that are currently under development.

Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisors compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!

Well, Microvision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your Microvision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.

But that will change in the next Qtr when the earnings report will show increasing sales of SHOWwx projector from the US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.

When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in Microvision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 5 years.

Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range.

Here’s an educated projection…

• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]

• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]

• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units

• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units

• OEM price: $90 per PicoP Display Engine

• Revenue: $4 billion

• Net Profit Margin: 40%

• Net Profit: $1.6 billion

• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]

• Interest Expense: $0 million

• Interest Income: $20 million

• Tax: $220million

• Depreciation: non cash and very small

• Amortization: non cash and very small

• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion

• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]

• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company

• Price Per Share: $390 per share

In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/