Saturday, November 21, 2009

Microvision Announces Pricing of Public Common Stock Offering

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 9:41 am EST, Thursday November 19, 2009

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS - News), a global leader in light scanning technologies, today announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 6.7million shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $3.00 per share. Microvision has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1.0million shares of its common stock to cover over-allotments, if any. Microvision expects to receive net proceeds, after deducting the underwriting discount and estimated offering expenses, of approximately $18.7million from the offering, or $21.5million if the underwriters exercise their over-allotment option in full. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. and Thomas Weisel Partners LLC are the joint book-running managers and Craig Hallum Capital Group LLC is acting as co-manager for the offering. The offering is expected to close on November 24, 2009, subject to customary closing conditions.

Microvision intends to use the net proceeds of the offering for general corporate purposes, including, but not limited to, working capital and capital expenditures.

The securities described above are being offered by Microvision pursuant to registration statements on Form S-3 previously filed and declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities in the offering. The offering may be made only by means of the prospectus supplement and the related prospectus relating to the proposed offering, copies of which may be obtained, when available, from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Attention: Syndicate Prospectus Department, 300 Madison Avenue, 4th Floor, New York, NY, 10017, by telephone at (212) 667-8563, or via email at EquityProspectus@opco.com.

Continues…
*****
Here’s the link to the news from this morning…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Announces-Pricing-bw-160646938.html?x=0&.v=1

The market reaction to additional 7.7 million shares issued, assuming over-allotment option is exercised, to raise $21.5 million in funding has been lot more violent then the 10% dilution [from additional shares] would suggest. To the naked eye the dilution looks like 10% from additional shares. However, when you look at the offering price of $3, a discount of 27% from the closing stock price of $4.11, it makes sense why the stock would drop so much… almost approaching the $3 dollar mark.

That is the management sin of doing a secondary public offering at deep discounts, like 27%, and then pays $1.6 million in fees to secure funding. Obviously, I’m not aware of the circumstances or reasons for the kind of a deal that the management made with Investment Bankers [and brokers] involved. However, one thing is for sure, that the existing shareholders have been diluted─ more than what the management intended to do, but also the unsuspecting shareholders were left at the mercy of unscrupulous financial wizards from Openheimer, Thomas Weisel, and Craig Hallum. And by that I mean the unscrupulous ways of stock manipulation and shorting against the anticipated delivery of stock [6.7 million to 7.7 million shares] from Microvision treasury.

That’s the American Investment Banker, Venture Capitalist and a Broker at work to rip out the heart and soul of a young and promising company in exchange for maximizing their take of the loot. You guessed it! The deep discount of 27% and $1.6 million in fees was, obviously, not enough.

Is that the American way?

I guess so…just look around you and you will see who caused the systemic global financial meltdown… Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch…etc… etc.

I’m sure you get the picture…

“The good old boy network of financial wizards at Wall Street”

Isn’t it?

We know that given the opportunity, the Investment Bankers and Brokers would do what we suspect them to do to make an extra buck. What we don’t know, however, is how na├»ve and financially unsophisticated the current management at Microvision really is?

It seems like, that the MVIS stock has been manipulated by shorting [from $5.70 to $3.70 in two week period] coming into the announcement of public offering and then covering the short position [from $3.15 to $3.27] after the announcement. The only entities that can do this sort of manipulation would be the parties involved in the public offering. Assuming that Microvision management kept a lid on the details of public offering… the only other parties to the deal would be Oppenheimer, Thomas Weisel and Craig Hallum Capital.

At the close of the day, on November 19th, the MVIS closed at $3.27 [down 84 cents for over 20% down] on a trading volume that is over 7.35million shares [representing about 10% of the float].

What a mess!

Microvision management could have been much smarter in how they handled the secondary public financing of the company. It does not take a rocket scientist to sell 7.7 million shares at 27% discount and pay $1.6 million in fees to raise $21.5 million in total… assuming the option to 1 million shares over-allotment is exercised.

Looking at how 7.35 million shares traded on November 19th, the day of announcement, it is apparent that a “Stock Rights Offering” to existing shareholders could have been easily subscribed. Stock rights offering is a very common practice in London financial markets [and Asian countries] and is the most preferred mode of financing among conservative and financially savvy CFOs/CEOs.

Do a Google search on "Rights Offering" and you will find hundreds of companies doing it... right here in the US. A stock rights offering is a very basic and simple way of funding... something that the 40+ year old CFOs/CEOs find too simplistic in light of their shining MBA's and Six Sigma Black Belt certifications.

Over the last two years, all the financing that has taken place at Microvision makes you wonder about the financial savvy and financial negotiating skills of that in-charge.  These are very blunt and critical words… but I say it as I see it. As an investor in MVIS stock, with hard earned money on the line, I don’t think I need to be pussy footing around the financial management savvy of the current management and worry about their fragile feelings.

So, having said all that, which sounds more like venting my frustration, where we go from here?

First, let me advise you to do your own due diligence. And if you’re due diligence tells you to hold your position in MVIS and possibly add at these discounted price level... then do so?  Because that’s exactly how I feel in-spite of all that has taken place over the last two trading days.

Next, the bottom line, as I see it, and then a few words to explain why I feel that way…

“Microvision story is very compelling and it remains the opportunity of a lifetime… there is no doubt about that. Personally, I would hold my current position─ except for what I may have to sell to cover my margin calls, and then in the future add to my position when and if my finances permit me to do so.”

I am certainly disappointed in the management’s handling of this public offering… that exposed the unsuspecting retail investors to the unscrupulous ways of Wall Street wizards. I am not surprised that this offering has had such a negative impact on the MVIS stock price. When a company gives 27% discount to the Wall Street wizards, you would expect the stock price to eventually gravitate towards that offering price… $3 dollars in this case.

In my humble opinion, the long-term outlook for this company has not changed. I say “my humble opinion”, because the market action of November 19th and the resultant financial impact on portfolio valuations can make even the strongest of believers question in what they truly believe… a sure sign of humility.

In hindsight, maybe there was a better way to do the financing. Maybe there was a better way to manage the SHOWwx launch. Maybe there was a better way to announce the OEM partner names. Maybe there was a better way to announce the purchase order from the global mobile phone carrier.

That’s just too many “maybe”… but then again I'm not with the company, so I really don't know what’s causing this muted enthusiasm while giving away the store at below wholesale prices.

I don’t think that Microvision's management is inept, or trying to compromise the interests of the company or the shareholders, and I certainly don't think they have any ulterior motives. If I thought that, I would not have invested in this company for the long term and just traded for quick profits… or just sold every share and walked away. If anyone here truly thinks that's the case, I would encourage them to do the same.

Pico projection technology has a big future, and Microvision's laser PicoP display technology is the best platform for delivering applications to an enormous global market.

Additional capital was needed… there is no doubt about that. Now Microvision has that capital… at least for the next year or so.

It is disappointing to see the many thousands of dollars in portfolio value disappear in the short term.  However, the long term potential and the opportunity of a lifetime stays intact.

Consider this…

• Stock prices go down as well as up─ and we had a nice ride up, from 77 cents to $5.70, and now a rough ride back down to $3.32.

• Stock prices may resume again when we hear that Osram has started shipping the green lasers in quantities, product is being sold by Mint, Uniden, Vodafone [name not yet officially disclosed], and as we start to get some more information about the embedded version of laser PicoP display engine and its applications.

• The fundamental story has not changed. Microvision has the killer app for consuming mobile content, and all signs point to that market expanding at a huge pace.

• We're not there yet, as evidenced by the continuing need to raise funds, but we're headed in the right direction as we get closer every day.

Some of us, I’m sure, are still sitting on a huge gain for the year. The extra profits that we had after the late August run-up, and before the recent drop from $4.11 to $3.32, is the value that was in the portfolio that you didn't have back in early August.  When the portfolios swell in value, the gains feel great…and the losses make you anxious, but I have a lot of confidence that we haven't seen the last of the gains.

So that's my take on the current funding… and a few words of comfort from experience.

Excessive dilution, stock shorting and manipulation are all very sickening… but it's something we have to deal with and learn to understand as the ways of the Wall Street West.

You and I can criticize management for the way the public offering, to raise $21.5 million in funding, was done but none of us really knows the full story.

So, give the management the benefit of the doubt, do some due diligence, and look at the future potential of Microvision stock investment with a fresh perspective.

If you see, what I see… you should hold your current position and add to it at these low prices… if and when your finances permit you to do so.

[If some of the words look a bit familiar towards the end... then you have read Paul Anderson post on Yahoo Message Board... just like I did.  Our writing style is not much different... so here is the credit to you Mr. Anderson before you get bent out of shape.]

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Microvision: You Have Competition [Updated]

November 12 2009

I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection "standalone" space... 3M with LcoS and TI with DLP technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

Microvision’s laser pico pojector SHOWwx could still lead the “standalone” rat pack because of the following:

• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) will make SHOWwx at par with competition... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

• “A wide angle view means that SHOWwx can show a wider screen at closer distant!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's SHOWwx you get…

“A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus”.

• Laser based pico projectors like SHOWwx will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

• SHOWwx has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based pico projectors like SHOWwx do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.

• Microvision’s SHOWwx can go from 12inch to 200inch diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.

• SHOWwx projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.

• SHOWwx projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.

• SHOWwx has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.

• Microvision’s PicoP display engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser G-2000 from Corning.  After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…

"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."

Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/

Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.

Microvision will be demonstrating several integrated product(s) at the CES 2010 expo in January and have signed-up a few major players to evaluate commercial PEKs.  Competition, like 3M and TI, have their LED based pico projectors on the market for over six months… but they are not selling too well… and their prices keep coming down almost every month.

However, Pico projector market is just developing and is expected to take-off in 2010…

http://fixed-mobile-convergence.tmcnet.com/topics/mobile-communications/articles/54130-report-picoprojector-revenues-will-exceed-1-billion.htm

Competition is good and will help with faster adoption of pico projectors by the billion plus unit market. To be a huge financial success, Microvision needs only a small percentage of the overall market that finally adopts the technology.

My money continues to be on Microvision.

However, I am keeping an eye on the competition… including TI, 3M, Syndiant and host of others that have joined in the foray.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Impact of Falling Dollar on your Financial Future

November 12, 2009

Even after giving a series of bearish indicators, each one larger than the previous one, the Dow Industrials turn around and breakout to new highs. Each time, since March lows, the Dow Industrials has been making higher highs and higher lows… indicating the continuation of the bullish trend.

We've seen several reversals since the March lows. But the quality of this current reversal is far-below what we've seen thus far. In previous sell-offs, we saw five to six sectors posting sell signals while the rest of the market plowed higher.

This time, however, 41 of the 46 sectors are on a sell signal!

So, why are the market internals so radically different [weaker] from the picture that the Dow is painting? If the new high in the Dow is "for real," why hasn't it been confirmed by a new high in either the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ yet?

Could it be that the declining US dollar is behind the investor strategy to snap up the big American export names that are part of the Dow Industrials?

Let’s take a look behind this thinking…

• It is an accepted fact that a cheap dollar will make US products cheaper to foreigners buying them in their own appreciated currency… thereby stoking demand for US goods. That bodes well for the revenues [and earnings] of the multinational corporations that are part of the Dow Industrials.

• It is also an accepted fact that as the big multinationals repatriate their Euros, yen and francs back to US dollars, they will get a currency-bump boost to earnings as they convert their foreign currency denominated earnings back into US dollars.

To this you can add the dollar related buying of multinationals as in the effect of "carry trade". That is, investors borrowing US dollars on the cheap [at 2.5% brokers margin rate] and then reinvesting those dollars in higher-yielding assets such as equities and commodities.

Does this mean that, if the dollar rallies, the markets will fall? It's certainly seems that that way. If you are watching CNN or Bloomberg, you will see what I mean?

Over the long term, the dollar looks like it wants to go lower. However, it's currently very much oversold. And, as a minimum, the US dollar is due for some type of short-term bounce.

What happens to your financial future with the dollar loosing its value every other day?

What happens when the Fed stops those money-printing presses?

The declining dollar is going to have a major impact on the US consumer. If there is no floor put under the dollar, we are going to experience horrific commodity-price increases here in the United States? The signs of dramatic commodity-price increases are already visible and soon will show-up in the PPI and CPI… it just a matter of time.

In a booming economy, it may not be a big deal… but in a prolonged recession, it's got to feel like an economy killer. Can you imagine the plight of 57 million on social security and the 27 million unemployed or partially employed.

[In October, the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.7 million. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent, the highest rate since April 1983.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- reached a record 17.5 percent from 17 percent in September.]

No wonder gold and silver have been going to the upside… dramatically. The buying power of the US dollar is getting annihilated. Fed policy to keep printing dollars 24/7 is just not a viable domestic economic policy. The US government is priming the pump in desperation, pushing full-steam-ahead, praying and hoping that the real economy catches up before the bills have to be paid.

Then there is the matter of additional trillion dollars for healthcare while still funding [fighting] and paying for two wars. Is it a surprise that the US dollar is getting hammered the way it is?

You don’t have to be a noble prize winning economist to realize that…

“Weak Dollar is bad for US.”

The truth is a cheap US dollar policy is great for the rest of the world, but bad for us. Everything we buy becomes more-expensive as the dollar gets weaker and weaker.

The best hedge for this type of scenario is clearly commodities. Dollar-denominated commodities will rally dramatically if the US dollar continues on its downward spiral.

The best way to protect the value of your portfolio is to diversify a little into commodities and the emerging markets. These days, virtually every major commodity can be purchased in the form of an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). Everything from Gold (Symbol: GLD) to emerging markets (Symbol: EEM) can be traded via ETFs.   You may also consider investment in growth companies like Apple (AAPL) and Microvision (MVIS) that have sales revenues originating from foreign and emerging markets.

Look at oil prices; it recently hit $80 per barrel!

Do you think that's demand-driven?

Think again… it’s the weak U.S. dollar [and investor speculation] pushing up the price of the world's largest traded and US dollar denominated commodity.

It’s a shame that our government is wasting the country's wealth and is in the process of mortgaging the future of our children and grand children. In our life time, there is no question, that taxes are headed higher… much higher.

Prepare yourself and plan for…

• Higher commodity prices leading to higher consumer prices
• Lower employment leading to higher un-employment rates to 12% or higher
• Permanent demand destruction in capital goods and non-essential services
• Higher property tax to pay for state budget gaps
• Higher sales tax to pay for state budget gaps
• Higher income and payroll taxes to pay for healthcare, entitlements and interest on US debt owed to foreigners holding US bonds… like China, Russia, Japan and so forth
• Higher interest rates… when the Fed finally realizes that dollar printing-presses working 24/7 are feeding the Wall Street and not the Main Street. The huge bubble of trillions of dollars pumped into the economy and higher commodity prices will surely show-up as inflation… prompting Fed to raise interest rates.
So much for that trillion dollar Fed attempt to prime the Main Street… while the Wall Street rakes-it-in laughing to the bank.

Thanks to our government, you, I and our children, will be the ones paying for the mistakes and indulgences of other people. The same very people that we, the tax payers, bailed out with cheap dollars… only to find out that these people made billions and are now debating over how to carve out the loot in bonuses.

[Inspired by an article... by Teeka Tiwari]
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Microvision: SHOWwx™ Receives 2010 CES Innovations Award

That’s the news from this morning as posted at the Microvision blog The Displayground…

SHOWwx™ Receives 2010 CES Innovations Award
November 10th, 2009
by Matt Nichols

The kick-off event to the pre-CES season started today in New York City at the Metropolitan Pavilion, where hundreds of media, analysts and bloggers got a sneak preview of the products that will be making headlines come January. I’m pleased to share with you that at this annual pre-CES press event, the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector was named an International CES Innovations 2010 Design and Engineering Awards Honoree.

The SHOWWX was chosen as an honoree in the portable multi-media accessories category by a panel of independent industrial designers, engineers and members of the media, judging on the following criteria:

• Engineering qualities, based on technical specs and materials used
• Aesthetic and design qualities, using photos provided
• The product’s intended use/function and user value
• Unique/novel features that consumers would find attractive
• How the design and innovation of the product compares to other products in the market

The SHOWWX will be exhibited Jan. 7-10 at the 2010 International CES in Las Vegas. Additionally, the Innovations Design and Engineering Showcase will feature honorees in the Grand Lobby of the Las Vegas Convention Center.

The Innovations Design and Engineering Awards have been recognizing achievements in product design and engineering since 1976. It is sponsored by the Consumer Electronics Association, the producer of the International CES, the world’s largest consumer technology tradeshow, and endorsed by the Industrial Designers Society of America, the voice of industrial design, committed to advancing the profession through education, information, community and advocacy. Information on all Innovations 2010 Design and Engineering honoree products can be found HERE.

Active Link… http://www.cesweb.org/awards/innovations/2010honorees.asp?category=931353
*****
Here’s the link to The Displayground blog…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1214

On the CES 2010 awards page for Micrvision it says…

“Laser-based pico projector mobile accessory that delivers stunningly colorful, bright, vivid, detailed WVGA-quality images--from 12" to 150" across--requiring no projection lense or focus adjustment. Plug/play from host's TV-Out or VGA.”

To experience the SHOWwx projection display for yourself, go to…

http://www.microvision.com/showwx/experience.html
[Make sure to click on “Experience SHOWwx”]

The financial markets are looking for, and have been ready for years, a new Intel like growth company with tremendous growth and investment opportunity. In my humble opinion, Microvision is that company. Very soon the investing public will discover what many of us old timers have known for a few years [too early] now. Microvision is the next big thing and represents the “Opportunity of a Life Time… in Our Life Time.”

From time to time, during the course of our lives, we are granted the opportunity of a lifetime. It's a chance that doesn't come our way very often, and usually one that would result in enormous financial benefits to us… if we can manage to get hold of it before it fades away.

“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.”

I hope you have recognized it by now and seized the opportunity?

If not, that’s too bad because it is an opportunity staring you right in the eye. Here’s a five part post at the blog, sort of a “crash course” in Microvision opportunity, to help you along with your due diligence process…

Please make sure to read all five parts to this post…

[At times you may feel that certain parts repeat, but that is intentional, because I wanted the individual parts to stand on their own… in conveying the core message]

Part # 1:
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in.html

Part # 2:
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in_18.html

Part # 3:
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in_19.html

Part # 4:
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in_8814.html

Part # 5:
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in.html

Also, make sure to read the post on my very successful investment experience with Intel…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/intel-i-made-over-14000-profit-since.html

There is so much more at the blog, so indulge yourself and read on. The information presented is based on extensive research over many years and is offered at no cost to you. The writing style [may be] kind of authoritative… but that’s just me.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Microvision: Ultimate in Mobility… Functionality… Cool Factor

It would be cool if Microvision's “Image by PicoP” had its name on this cube…

http://www.psfk.com/2009/05/60-inch-screen-in-your-pocket.html

“The Nokia Pulse, a concept by Miika Mahonen, is similar to the soon to be released Microvision Mobile Projector. They’re both designed to be powerful mobile display systems that can use a mobile phone as the source of video and as a remote control. The Nokia Pulse also combines an NXT-speaker with Dolby sound processing into the compact device, which can (theoretically) project images up to 60-inches on any wall.”

“While the Pulse is still just an idea, Microvision is currently working with other companies to incorporate their light engine into other devices such as phones and laptops. Is screen size on your mobile phone irrelevant if you can project onto any wall?”

[via Yanko Design]

Active links…

Microvision Mobile Projector: http://www.psfk.com/2009/02/video-microvisions-amazing-mobile-projector.html

Yanko Design: http://www.yankodesign.com/2009/05/21/pocket-projector-turns-mobile-into-remote-2/

Just imagine, with Microvision’s laser PicoP display engine in-side, this cube could be the ultimate in mobility, functionality and cool factor.

Not only that, it is a productivity enhancing tool for business communications, as well as, a perfect product for personal and interactive entertainment… all in one cool package.

Anant Goel

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Microvision: Market Makers… Ready… Smile… Action

If you have watched the Microvision stock price action over the last few years, you will come to the same conclusion that I have...

"The market maker needs volatility to continue making market for a stock like MVIS… where there are currently more retail investors and also where the stock is tied to Russell 2000 index. In other words, the MM is dealing with very unpredictable buying and selling patterns for MVIS stock… and the options are very thinly traded."

This is what the MM is dealing with…

During times when everyone wants to buy the stock, the market maker sells from inventory and sells the excess [of what is not matched by a seller] and ends-up more short stock than he really wants to... but is able to buy Calls if and when available. Buying Calls may be under his control, however, he still needs the counter party [a willing seller of Calls]. So, the MM ends-up short MVIS stock without a hedge. And that’s what happened when the stock moved from $3.30 to $5.52 in matter of 4 weeks [from 9/3 thru 9/30]… and on some very heavy volume. This is when FUD mongers go to work and create selling pressure first as profit taking and then accelerated selling based on fear, uncertainty and doubt. When the mission is accomplished, and FUD related selling is in full force, the MM covers and starts to build inventory for the next round of buying from the investor community… either natural buying pressure or forced by act of GOD [greed, optimism and deception].

It took FUD mongers, with help from our trader brethrens, just 7-trading days [from 10/20 thru 10/27] to bring the MVIS stock down to $3.70 from $5.52. Sometimes it makes you wonder how many of these FUD managers exist on the Yahoo Message Board for MVIS stock. I’m sure that those fellow long term investors, who like to trade for the sake of a few pennies, do more damage to their cause and then wonder: Who’s done it?

On the flip side, in times when everyone wants to sell, the market maker buys the excess [of what is not matched by a buyer] and ends-up with more inventory than he really wants to hold and there is no way [in case f MVIS stock] for him to hedge this position by buying Puts… because no one in their right mind wants to sell Puts on MVIS. So, the MM ends-up with tons of shares of MVIS and basically no hedge. And that’s what has happened over a 7-trading day period [from 10/20 thru 10/27] when the stock plunged from $5.52 to $3.70 in matter of 9 days… and on some very heavy volume.

But wait!!!

Wasn’t the selling from 10/20 thru 10/ 27 [when the stock plunged from $5.52 to $3.70] orchestrated but short term profit takers, FUD mongers and fellow long traders? Then in reality, the MM has covered his short position [from the time stock ran-up] and now he has already build-up his inventory for the next round of buying… natural buying pressure from long investors or by acts of GOD [greed, optimism and deception].

Just look at the last 8-trading days [from 10/28 thru 11/6] when the stock traded flat on gradually lower and lower volume. The market maker had plenty of time to buy back stock, sell some calls and build-up his inventory.

Here's the stock chart...

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=MVIS

Very good “Sherlock”!

But there is another piece of the puzzle that needs to be brought into place… and that is the Implied Volatility.

So, the fist thing the MM does is to assign [or whatever it takes] to increase Implied Volatility of the stock… like go from 72% to 103% or more.

The next thing MM wants to do is to force the act of GOD, as soon as signs of optimism start to show-up again. With recent news about red laser shipments by Opnext, and sale of Pico projectors by Vodaphone ─ assumed to be the mobile phone carrier customer of Microvision, there is increasing optimism in the air. The next step would be for some greed and a little act of deception introduced into the mix for the next round of buying to commence. And of course, our ever so accommodating market maker is ready and willing… with basket full of freshly acquired MVIS stock in inventory.

After hours jump in MVIS stock price to $4.11 on Friday [November 6th], it is up by 30 cents on 1,000 shares. To me, it indicates that the market maker wants to take it higher… and the trading action over the last few days is very suspect in favor of this theory.

With low volume and low volatility of the last few days, it allowed the market maker to sell calls for 40 to 50 cents premium [on May 2.5 calls for example] and buy stock cheaply to hedge it. With the stock trading flat at $3.70 on very low volume, indicating few sellers and a few buyers, the market maker wants to stir-up the things a bit more to introduce volatility to continue selling more premium and hedge more by buying stock.

Does that mean the MM is now ready with freshly acquired inventory for the next round of stock price run-up?

I think so… because I have seen it done before in the past.

As they say: “history does repeat itself.”

Are you ready to deal with the next round of stock price run-up?

I hope so!!!

[Note: Selling puts is like taking huge potential down-side risk, and tie-up portfolio margin [below $5 MVIS is not margin able] for pittance of a return. Most intelligent investors would rather buy a $3.70 stock outright or at the most buy deep in the money calls to leverage their position.]

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Friday, November 6, 2009

Microvision: Short Squeeze Coming Soon

Get ready for short squeeze fellow Microvision investors.

A fast-moving, virtually unstoppable phenomenon that will shock most investors and leave many speculators ruined, even as it makes some of you longs rich.

Right now, most traders are making the exact WRONG move at the exact WRONG time. Short interest in Microvision stock is skyrocketing─ at 8.4 million shares as of October 15th, as all the SHORT lemmings trundle on towards the cliff.

Get ready for a replay of the summer rally— only bigger, faster and even more brutal to those on the wrong side of the move.

First consider the news from this morning…

Opnext to Supply Microvision with Red Laser Diodes for Mobile Pico Projectors

FREMONT, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Opnext, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPXT), a global leader in the design and manufacturing of optical modules and components, today announced that the Company has begun shipping its red laser diodes to Microvision for its PicoP® laser projection technology.

With this relationship, Opnext will supply red laser diodes for Microvision’s PicoP display engine. Potential applications for the PicoP technology include ultra-miniature displays for embedded or accessory applications for mobile phones, personal media players, laptops and future wearable display devices.

Laser-based microprojectors have a unique combination of features that are optimal for mobile device users, including infinite focus, rich color, and high contrast and resolution. Opnext’s red laser family of diodes play an important role in this rapidly emerging mobile-display market by providing customers with a visually rich multimedia experience.

“We are very proud that our red lasers developed for the pico projector market have been selected by Microvision, a true leader in the industry,” commented Gilles Bouchard, Opnext President and CEO. “This is a perfect example of how Opnext is driving new and exciting applications through innovation and partnership.”

Alexander Tokman, Microvision CEO stated, “Opnext is a leader in high performance red laser diodes for projection applications and we are pleased to be working with the Opnext team on this exciting endeavor.”

About Opnext

Opnext (NASDAQ:OPXT) is the optical technology partner of choice supplying systems providers and OEMs worldwide with the industry's largest portfolio of 10G and higher next generation optical products and solutions. The Company's industry expertise, future-focused thinking and commitment to research and development combine in bringing to market the most advanced technology to the communications, defense, security and biomedical industries. Formed out of Hitachi, Opnext has built on more than 30 years experience in advanced technology to establish its broad portfolio of solutions and solid reputation for excellence in service and delivering value to its customers. For additional information, visit www.opnext.com.

Continued…

*****
Here's the link...
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20091106005127&newsLang=en

The significance of this news is quite obvious…

“If Opnext is shipping the red laser diodes, then Osram is shipping the blue and green lasers as well.”

Think about it?

Why would Microvision need red laser diodes, if they did not have the supply of the blue and green from Osram? You do remember that Osram is the supplier of blue and green laser modules!

Here’s the link to that news…

http://www.your-story.org/microvision-signs-multi-year-agreement-with-osram-for-supply-of-green-and-blue-lasers-26113/

Microvision Signs Multi-Year Agreement with OSRAM for Supply of Green and Blue Lasers
Published Monday, September 7, 2009, 18:55

REDMOND, Wash.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Microvision, Inc. (Nasdaq:MVIS), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and image capture products for mobility applications announced today that it has entered into a supply agreement with OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH for the supply of green and blue lasers — key components of Microvision’s PicoP® display engine. The announcement is the second Microvision has made in recent months regarding procurement of green lasers for use in the company’s PicoP® display engine and accessory pico projector product called SHOWWX™.

Following recent success commercializing its blue laser technology, OSRAM has fourth quarter commercialization plans for its green frequency doubled laser for use in Microvision’s PicoP display engine. OSRAM is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of optoelectronic semiconductors for lighting, sensor and visualization applications.

Continued…

*****
In a nutshell, that means the second supplier of green laser Osram is on board with additional supplies and the quantities of SHOWwx laser PicoP projectors just more than doubled. With Corning and Osram both delivering on the green laser contracts, the quantities of SHOWwx that can be shipped now will increase month over month.

That leads me to believe, we can expect to see more announcements of purchase orders from OEMs and mobile phone operators in the future… month over month.

The recent pull back in MVIS stock price was due to the uncertainty associated with green laser supply. With Osram coming on board, with their superior and cheaper green lasers, the ball game has changed and the perceived uncertainty just got squashed in the bud.

We have discussed in my previous posts…

“Having established the huge market size [and consumer preferences] for pico projector lets move on to identifying the leading pico projection technology that hopes to fulfill the consumer needs…

Please read this very informative post on the subject…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in.html

Now consider this about the recent activity in Microvision stock…

Stock Volatility: Over the last few weeks, both the “Historical Volatility” and “Implied Volatility” have come down gradually. Currently, the HV is 80 and the IV is 96. Looks like we now have more believers [long] than speculators [shorts] on board. Also, this stock is now part of Russell 2000/3000 and as such is subject to small cap market volatility… which has been coming down in recent weeks.

Volatility is unavoidable in small-cap investing. It can be a gut-wrenching, stress-inducing part of the small-cap investing experience, or it can be the grease that runs the profit machine. Where a 3% move in Microsoft or McDonald's would be out of the ordinary, good or bad news can routinely move small caps' share prices more than 10%. It can be tough for an investor to handle, but the determining factor is self-discipline.

• Perform due diligence before pulling the trigger to buy or sell

Investors sometimes invest without understanding the company's business. Then, at the first sign of negative volatility, they finally scramble to look at the firm's financial statements. That's being reactive, not proactive. You need to understand a company before investing in it. If the stock happens to rally to unattractive levels while you're doing your research, you'll nonetheless be in a great position to buy when the stock inevitably dips. If the stock falls, you'll know more about the company and therefore be less prone to panic. Cognitive scientists have determined that uncertainty is one of the most stressful and painful emotional states. Prior due diligence reduces the element of surprise and is the most effective way of minimizing investment uncertainty.

• Due diligence does not only include checking the criteria for buying a stock. With rare exception, it should also include formulating the conditions for selling based on the stock's valuation. Because small-cap companies often have greater growth prospects than blue-chip companies, your reasons for selling a small-cap company are more apt to change

Stock Short Interest: Over the last few weeks, the short interest has gone up and now stands at 13% [8.38 million shares] of the float [63.03 million shares]. All in all, at the current low average volume per day, it will take about 10 days to cover… about 8.38 million shares short… trading 895,000 shares per day average over the last 3 months.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=MVIS&selected=MVIS

Stock Trading Range: For a period of four weeks [from September 21 to October 22] the stock traded over $5 in a very tight range of “$5.02 to $5.52”. We have seen some very volatile days on Wall Street in the last 10 days [from October 24 to November 4]… and the stock has come down to $3.70 and now seems to be holding at this level as a very strong support… and waiting for next announcement of news. The stock price has crossed under the 50 day moving average [at $4.50] and seems to have very strong support at $3.66 or so. This is where the stock price was before the commercial launch of SHOWwx [on September 15th] and three purchase orders in October. The reason for the stock price drop, in my opinion, is due mainly to the uncertainty associated with quantities of green lasers that are essential to fulfilling the three initial purchase orders.

Here’s the stock chart…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358

However, if you look at the P&F [point and figure] chart the stock is still in the uptrend channel with a “bullish price” of $8.31.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=MVIS,P&listNum=

Stock Holding: Institutions hold about 14.40% and the Insiders hold over 16.93% of the outstanding stock [63.19 million float on a fully diluted basis]. This means that over 68.67% of the float is held by retail investors. This is a very wide distribution of MVIS stock… a good sign for PPS support [during lean times] and PPS momentum [during good times] when institutions finally wake-up and come looking to take position in the MVIS stock directly… or decide to invest aggressively in small cap stocks indexed by Russell 2000/3000.

My technical indicators are forecasting another big run-up in the market and the MVIS stock over the next 6-8 weeks, or longer.

Most investors missed out in March and August. And most investors are missing out again right now.

Any pullback in Microvision stock price will be short-lived.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime (Part 5)

The cost of missing out can be greater than the cost of messing up.

“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.” …Leonard Ravenhill

From time to time, during the course of our lives, we are granted the "opportunity of a lifetime. It's a chance that doesn't come our way very often, and usually one that would result in enormous financial benefits to us… if we can manage to get hold of it before it fades away.

Here’s the REASON #5… to not let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…

Microvision: Paradigm Shift “Atoms” to “Bits”

No, this article is not about breaking Atoms into Bits… like in nuclear fission.

It is, however, all about the next wave of change, a paradigm shift, where real physical things [made-up of Atoms] are giving way to virtual things that physically don’t exist but function equally well with interweaved streams of bits, bytes, electrons and photons.

Consider this…

The Internet and mobile networks have reached a critical mass in terms of adoption, ease and speed of access, and data and financial security. This critical mass is now forging the next wave of change or a paradigm shift called “Atoms” to “Bits”. In the last few years, as you may have noticed, physical things [made up of Atoms] are giving way to electrons, photons and bits & bytes… in more of our every day activities and lives.

Some examples would be: comparison shopping on-line from virtual stores and paying by credit cards; on-line prescriptions; accessing & retrieving information on-line; banking and paying bills on-line; communications and information exchange on-line; rich text and video e-mails; on-line advertising and promotions; podcast & webcast; webinars and distant learning from virtual universities; telecommuting, teleconferencing and video conferencing; streaming videos in place of DVDs; on-line brokerage and virtual trading platforms; electronic buying and selling commodity exchanges, etc.

I think you get the idea. This paradigm shift has been underway for a while… but it is only recently [in the last three to four years] that it’s having a profound impact on brick & mortar type businesses. The on-line B2B and B2C business has grown from a few billion dollars a year to hundreds of billions of dollars in year 2009. And at the rate we are going, further technological enhancements in Internet, mobile networks, RGB lasers, nano technologies, augmented reality and automation will further increase the virtual commerce to over a trillion dollars in a short few years.

The paradigm shift from “Atoms” to “Bits”, as I call it, will be detrimental to many traditional businesses that still maintain monolithic physical presence and hang-on to the old business model in spite of visible signs of change and the resultant demand destruction for many traditional products and services. When you consider the impact of rising operating costs, higher taxes, rising fuel cost and higher costs of raw materials of all kind… you have the making of a witch’s brew that is sure to knock out any business that fails to change with the times. Those companies that recognize the evolution of Internet; mobile networks; augmented reality; nano technology; dramatic shift to virtual commerce; and automation ─ and have the vision to recognize its far-reaching impact on traditional business models, can capitalize from the revolution and not be its victim.

Blockbuster is a good example, shutting down stores and developing new alliances with cable operators. Rite-Aid looks like a bankruptcy candidate… unless they find a way to improve their balance sheet. And how about those high vacancy rates in malls, shopping centers and the ever so declining foot traffic of shoppers into such establishments?

Companies that fail to embrace the Real Time nature of globally connected New World Economy of the Internet and mobile networks will slowly disappear… cut down to nothing by the competition… or be acquired at massive discounts.

Massive changes are taking place in the way business is done, customers are acquired and served, financial transactions are conducted, risk is managed, and investments are made today. You can embrace the changes and go with the flow, to capitalize and gain from it, or be a victim of the change itself. Choices are simple but the impact will be massive. The real time information, traveling at the speed of light to billion(s) of informed and educated potential customers, consumers and investors around the globe, can very quickly take your company to higher levels of financial success or, on the flip side, simply cut it down to size forever.

The subject of this post, paradigm shift from Atoms to Bits, is not only complex but is very broad in nature and it’s not my intent to discuss it here at any great detail in this forum. However, I do intend to discuss two major changes that are taking place right under our noses… and directly impact our investment in companies like Microvision and Apple...

Change #1: Computer laptops are taking over and dominating the PC world. Every year the laptop adoption rates have grown dramatically over their desktop brethren. IDC predicts the number of worldwide mobile workers will reach 1 billion─ including nearly 75% of the U.S. workforce ─ by the end of 2011. Is your company prepared for this shift in the mobile workforce? Download this new report to see what IDC has to say about mobile worker population trends, forecasts and technology recommendations.

Here’ the link…
http://whitepapers.silicon.com/0,39024759,60431682p,00.htm

Notebook Computers: It is well known that the screen size [of billion strong mobile workforce using laptops] is one of the main determining factors in laptop form-factor design. Vendors and consumers alike are pulled in opposite directions: Make the computer smaller, but improve screen readability. Adding mobile projection allows for smaller form factor design while providing a large screen display when desired. The market size for pico projectors, therefore, is huge to the tune of over a billion units world-wide.

Change #2: We already know the ubiquitous nature of the Internet, the laptops and mobile phones around the world. However, what we may not know that there is yet another mega change taking place right under our noses…

The mobile phones have become ubiquitous globally on one hand… and on the other hand we have the smartphones taking market share from the mobile phones. The billion or so a year mobile phone market is giving way to the smartphones.

• Smartphones are rapidly replacing the classic mobile phones around the globe

“Worldwide mobile phone sales totalled 286.1 million units in the second quarter of 2009, a 6.1 per cent decrease from the second quarter of 2008, according to Gartner, Inc. Smartphones sales surpassed 40 million units, a 27 per cent increase from the same period last year, representing the fastest-growing segment of the mobile-devices market.”

Here’s the link to Gartner report…
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1126812

"Smartphones sales were strong during the second quarter of 2009, with sales of 40.9 million units in line with Gartner's forecast of 27 per cent year-on-year sales growth for 2009," said Ms Milanesi. "Given the higher margins, smartphones offer the biggest opportunity for manufacturers. It is the fastest-growing market segment and the most resistant to declining ASPs."

Smartphones are feature rich mobile devices that consist of a mini-laptop with built-in mobile phone and connected to a service provider [carrier] via a broadband mobile network like the 3G. Smartphones are feature rich mobile phones and one of the key features that have plans to be offered in the high-end smartphones is a pico projector… as an accessory unit initially… followed by the embedded version in 2010. Future smartphones are expected to include, or offered as an option, a pico projector as a standard unit just like the digital camera is today.

It is my belief that in the coming short years all sorts of video devices and services will dominate our communications, collaboration, networking, entertainment and learning world.

• Pico projectors are being developed as an embedded feature in all things digital

The next popular categories that integrate pico projectors would be mobile computing [laptops] and communication [cell phones, smartphones] devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as personal media players [iPod], digital cameras, digital camcorders and Integrated Mobile TV/projectors.

Why pico projectors are such a rage all of a sudden… you may ask?

That’s a fair question and can be answered in four parts…

Part 1: Pico Projectors can add Big Screen Experience to Small Devices

Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat: “As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded pico projectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal.

Part 2: Rapidly Evolving Illumination Technologies like LEDs and Green Lasers

In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that Pico projectors will become part and parcel of relatively low cost cell phones, media players and other digital consumer electronic devices.

“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making Pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.

Part 3: Powerful & Always Connected. Functions Rich Devices with Enhanced Visual Experience

Today, the mobile devices are ubiquitous and if you were to project out the current trends another ten years…

“You will be carrying with you, on a 24x7 basis, a very powerful, always connected, functions & sensor-rich device with enhanced visual experience… called the Smartphones. And the cool thing is, so will everyone else. So what are you going to do with it that you aren't doing now?

Before we consider the possibilities, let’s first address the ubiquity of the mobile devices and extrapolate the current trends towards the mobile phones of the future for everyone on this planet. In other words, the mobile phones of to-day will pave the path to ubiquity for Smartphones of tomorrow… and that tomorrow may be here as early as the next 10 years. And what’s good for smartphones of tomorrow is indeed good for pico projectors as an accessory of as an embedded unit.

Consider this…

• There are currently about 3.2 billion mobile subscribers in the world, and that number is expected to grow by at least a billion in the next few years.
• Today, mobile phones are more prevalent than cars (about 800 million registered vehicles in the world) and credit cards (only 1.4 billion of those).
• While it took 100 years for landline phones to spread to more than 80% of the countries in the world, their wireless descendants did it in only 16 years.
• Fewer teens are wearing watches now because they use their phones to tell time instead. So it's safe to say that the mobile phone may be the most productive and ubiquitous consumer product ever invented.
However, have you ever considered just exactly how powerful these ubiquitous devices are and if the current trends were to be extrapolated… what future mobile device will look like? Whatever the name [or logo] on the cover, under the hood these mobile phones of the future will be the smartphones that will be very smart [pun intended] and very powerful. Smartphones like “Blackberry” considered a business tool are now successfully targeting consumers. On the other hand, “iPhone” considered a consumer product is now targeting business customers. Some day, they may converge and pretty much offer the same power, functionality, connectivity, long battery life and ease of use etc.

As more and more consumers switch to smartphones globally, the Blackberry and iPhone are picking up market share at the expense of foreign competitors such as Nokia.

However, the good news is that the overall smartphones market is growing faster than ever. In 2008, a total of 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold worldwide, according to IDC, of which some 160 million were smartphones, or 13%. In 2013, IDC predicts that 20% of the 1.4 billion mobile phones sold will be smartphones, or 280 million.

Currently, we know what smartphones like Blackberry and iPhone offer. What we don’t know and, therefore, we can only speculate what additional functionality and features the future smartphones may offer. Here’s a list of what the future may hold in store for the consumers…

Here’s the link to my post on this very subject…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in_19.html

There is one paragraph from the post that I want you to read again…

Enhanced Visual Experience: Not too long ago, a mobile phone offered only a one-to-one viewing experience with little room for personalization and lacking the cool factor. Soon Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will change the DNA of the phone, making it more visual, interactive and unique to the user. Taking this a step further, your cell phone will become a “one-to-many” tool, allowing us to share mobile content with groups of friends, family and colleagues. In the not-too-distant future, road warriors [the billion strong mobile workforces] will be showing presentations to a room full of colleagues via a projector accessory [SHOWwx] for their mobile phones. We have only begun to unleash the mobile visual experience.

Now, let’s take it a step further and gather some information from real life consumers that will eventually become user of enhanced communications products…

• Video vs. Other Forms of Communications: Research has shown that users prefer video communication over other forms of communication [sound, smell, touch] and video will continue to be the preferred means of all human communications.

• Users Preference for Image Quality: Research has shown that users prefer wide screen, high definition, 2D/3D video with fast refresh [without motion blur] and always in focus images for all forms of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.

• User Preference for Mobility: The entire world [users and service providers] is getting into the instant gratification mode and going mobile in all forms of communications and entertainment across the globe.

• Product Features Leading to Technological Convergence: Technological convergence is the tendency for different technological systems to evolve towards performing similar tasks. Today, we are surrounded by a multi-level convergent media world where all modes of communication and information are continually reforming to adapt to the enduring demands of technologies, “changing the way we create, consume, entertain, learn and interact with each other”.

Convergence in this instance is defined as the interlinking of computing and other information technologies, media content and communication networks that have arisen as the result of the evolution and ubiquity of the Internet as well as the activities, products and services that have emerged in the digital media space.

• Customers Requirements: Customers desire all digital/video devices to be low power, low cost, multi-media enabled, multi-tasking, integrated & all inclusive, easy to use, low maintenance, professionally supported and warranty serviced.

• Consumer Defined Shared vs. Private Information: Consumers desire the option [in product models or optional features] or built-in switch able flexibility in these digital/video devices to be able to switch between “shared” vs. “private” mode.

Having established the huge market size [and consumer preferences] for pico projector lets move on to identifying the leading pico projection technology that hopes to fulfill the consumer needs…

Laser based Pico display technology is superior to what’s out there right now… like DLP by Texas Instruments, LcoS by 3M and FLCOS by Micron Displaytech. The competition believed that green lasers wouldn’t be ready for years and its cost would be excessive. They also had concerns about laser projection “speckle” and laser safety issues. It is for these reasons, in my opinion, that they did not pursue the laser pico display technology path and essentially left the laser Pico technology to Microvision un-contested.

Microvision on the other hand believed in the green lasers as being the differentiating technology that would make Pico display engine as superior to LED based Pico projection technology… and also as a serious contender, in terms of quality and brightness of images, to the lamp based projection technology.

There were several hic-ups along the way. However, after three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, and 115 issued patents later, the world’s first laser based PicoP projector was commercially launched on September 15th, 2009.

Not only that, another announcement was made [on October 8th] of a major OEM purchase order as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…

“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.

To make the matter even more interesting, another announcement was made [on October 27th] of a purchase order from a World Leading Mobile Phone Operator…

Microvision Lands Order For SHOWWX Laser Pico Projectors With World Leading Mobile Phone Operator
Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 6:30 am EDT, Tuesday October 27, 2009

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and image-capture products for mobility applications, announced today that it has received an initial purchase order from its European distributor for its SHOWWX™ laser-based pico projector to be sold by one of the world’s top mobile phone operators. The initial quantities of SHOWWX are expected to be deployed within the next month in Europe and at that time more details are expected to be provided by the mobile carrier.

“We are extremely pleased to welcome our first global mobile phone operator as a SHOWWX launch customer for 2009,” stated Alexander Tokman, Microvision President and CEO. “Carriers serve as the frontline to mobile subscribers and as a result often influence mobile handset designs to include new features that delight their customers and help achieve a broader subscriber base and higher revenue per user. We believe that interest from one of the three largest carriers in the world in this application and specifically in Microvision’s PicoP® laser projection technology is an important first step towards future accessory and embedded opportunities.”

Microvision’s Made for iPod® SHOWWX laser pico projector, based on the PicoP display engine, delivers a colorful, vivid “big screen” viewing experience from a device about the size of a mobile phone. Users of the SHOWWX can also connect to other portable media players, mobile phones and notebooks to spontaneously share movies, YouTube™, photos, presentations and more with their friends, family or business associates. The SHOWWX can project images up to 200 inches across, depending on the ambient lighting conditions, without the user ever having to adjust focus.

*****

Here’s the link to press release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Lands-Order-For-bw-181864591.html?x=0&.v=1

We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator represent as …

• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.

• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.

• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.

• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.

• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.

• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments.

• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 115 issued patents and with many more on file.

• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser based PicoP projectors as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.

• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.

• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.

• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.

Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.

Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:

First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...

http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf

After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increases in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.

Here’s why…
In any investment, it is very important to look at RISK vs. REWARD.

After having done considerable amount of research and analysis of Microvision, I would like to share the following conclusions [in a summary form]….

Stock Volatility: Over the last few weeks, both the “Historical Volatility” and “Implied Volatility” have come down gradually. Currently, the HV is 80 and the IV is 96. Looks like we now have more believers [long] than speculators [shorts] on board. Also, this stock is now part of Russell 2000/3000 and as such is subject to small cap market volatility… which has been coming down in recent weeks.

Volatility is unavoidable in small-cap investing. It can be a gut-wrenching, stress-inducing part of the small-cap investing experience, or it can be the grease that runs the profit machine. Where a 3% move in Microsoft or McDonald's would be out of the ordinary, good or bad news can routinely move small caps' share prices more than 10%. It can be tough for an investor to handle, but the determining factor is self-discipline.

• Determine your small-cap investment criteria

Small-cap investing has high -- yet manageable -- risk, at least when compared to value or income investing. Significant returns probably will not materialize early on in any individual investment. A conscious decision on one's small cap risk limit is essential. Those relying on investments for regular income should be extremely cautious with small-cap investing.

• Perform due diligence before pulling the trigger

Investors sometimes invest without understanding the company's business. Then, at the first sign of negative volatility, they finally scramble to look at the firm's financial statements. That's being reactive, not proactive. You need to understand a company before investing in it. If the stock happens to rally to unattractive levels while you're doing your research, you'll nonetheless be in a great position to buy when the stock inevitably dips. If the stock falls, you'll know more about the company and therefore be less prone to panic. Cognitive scientists have determined that uncertainty is one of the most stressful and painful emotional states. Prior due diligence reduces the element of surprise and is the most effective way of minimizing investment uncertainty.

• Due diligence does not only include checking the criteria for buying a stock. With rare exception, it should also include formulating the conditions for selling based on the stock's valuation. Because small-cap companies often have greater growth prospects than blue-chip companies, your reasons for selling a small-cap company are more apt to change

Stock Short Interest: Over the last few weeks, the short interest has gone up and now stands at 11% [8.38 million shares] of the float [63.19 million shares]. All in all, at the current low average volume per day, it will take about 10 days to cover… about 8.38 million shares short… trading 895,000 shares per day average over the last 3 months.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=MVIS&selected=MVIS

Stock Trading Range: For a period of four weeks [from September 21 to October 22] the stock traded over $5 in a very tight range of “$5.02 to $5.52”. We have seen some very volatile days on Wall Street in the last 10 days [from October 24 to November 4]… and the stock has come down to $3.70 and now seems to be holding at this level as a very strong support… and waiting for next announcement of news. The stock price has crossed under the 50 day moving average [at $4.50] and seems to have very strong support at $3.66 or so. This is where the stock price was before the commercial launch of SHOWwx [on September 15th] and three purchase orders in October. The reason for the stock price drop, in my opinion, is due mainly to the uncertainty associated with quantities of green lasers that are essential to fulfilling the three initial purchase orders.

Here’s the stock chart…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358

However, if you look at the P&F [point and figure] chart the stock is still in the uptrend channel with a “bullish price” of $8.31.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=MVIS,P&listNum=

Stock Holding: Institutions hold about 14.40% and the Insiders hold over 16.93% of the outstanding stock [63.19 million float on a fully diluted basis]. This means that over 68.67% of the float is held by retail investors. This is a very wide distribution of MVIS stock… a good sign for PPS support [during lean times] and PPS momentum [during good times] when institutions finally wake-up and come looking to take position in the MVIS stock directly… or decide to invest aggressively in small cap stocks indexed by Russell 2000/3000.

Short Term Risk [next four weeks]: Over the next four weeks [up until the announcement of the European mobile phone carrier] the stock PPS could trade in tight range of $3.65 to $3.80… but hopefully does not trade any lower than $3.37. This is the short term risk to PPS… mainly due to lack of news or release of any significant news over the next few weeks.

Mid Term Risk [next 2 Qtrs]: There is a very strong possibility that an additional OEM contract [and purchase order] and increased quantities of SHOWwx shipments will be announced on a monthly basis from hereon. In such a case, the PPS may just take-off to new highs for the year and not look back. As we know, there is more demand for Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx than the supply of green lasers and that bodes well for the mid term future… as there could be monthly announcements of OEM contracts and agreements for rest of the year 2010.

Two of the supply chain issues could be “green laser cost” and “green laser volume production”. Feasibility and product development of the various PicoP display engine components is not an issue. The issue [if any] could be with the price and mass production of green lasers from Corning. The supply chain issue is real and has affected the full blown end of summer 2009 commercial product launch. The delay in large quantity shipments, however, may be short and you could see quick recovery in PPS… as the second green laser supplier Osram comes on board in the next few weeks.

Also, there is a strong possibility that the company may be selling some more shares to fund its short term cash flow needs beyond June 2010… in case there is cash flow short fall from sale of products and services. That’s the mid-term risk… but I will take it with a smile.

Long Term Risk [over 2 years]: If the company can fast track the volume production of PicoP display engines and SHOWwx laser projectors to a few million units a year [the good case scenario] or survives the “hostile” take-over attempt in the mid-term [precipitated as a result of major supply chain issues], there is no long term issue… because the market is huge and the company has leadership position in four (4) different product categories.

Reward: For those who understand the company’s — business model; the various products; the size [and the pull] of the captive world wide market— the rewards are phenomenal.

Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…

• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, camcorders, digital cameras, mobile TV/Projectors etc.]

• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]

• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units

• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units

• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine

• Revenue: $4 billion

• Net Profit Margin: 40%

• Net Profit: $1.6 billion

• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]

• Interest Expense: $0 million

• Interest Income: $20 million

• Tax: $220million

• Depreciation: non cash and very small

• Amortization: non cash and very small

• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion

• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]

• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company

• Price Per Share: $390 per share

In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 5 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.

Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP display engines will be larger than the supply."

Here’s the link to Microvision web site…
http://www.microvision.com/

This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/