Showing posts with label Mobile Phone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mobile Phone. Show all posts

Friday, March 27, 2015

Technology and Social Paradigm Shift ─ Laser Pico Projection to Change the Way We View our World



There is paradigm shift coming and the pico projector market is estimated to reach $9.32 billion by 2020; growing at a CAGR of 39.82% from 2014 to 2020.

[Note: Think of a Paradigm Shift as a change from one way of thinking to another. It's a revolution, a transformation, a sort of metamorphosis. It just does not happen, but rather it is driven by agents of change.]

I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection "standalone" space... like 3M with LcoS, TI with DLP, and MicroVision with Laser Beam Scanning technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, MicroVision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” or “standalone” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

MicroVision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…

When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.

Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?

When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.

What’s MicroVision “Killer App”?

It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”.  What makes MicroVision’s PicoP display engine technology as "Killer App" in simple terms?

1.  Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.

2.  Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.

3.  Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.

4.  Large projected images [up to 250”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.

5.  High Definition 720P images at 32 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 50 lumen or more brightness in 2015.

6.  Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology has matured and economies of scale are achieved in 2015.  For example, synthetic green lasers [SGLs] were priced at around $120 each… whereas the diode green lasers [with higher light energy output and efficiency] are currently priced at less than $5 in quantities.

7.  Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next. 

8.  Social Change from the way we share information now to the way it will be shared in the future.

The PicoP display engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to MicroVision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PicoP display engine to the rest of MicroVision product line of applications that are currently under development.

Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisers compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!

Well, MicroVision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your MicroVision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.

But that will change in the next 2 Qtrs: when the earnings report will show $8 million in licensing fee and $14.5 million in proprietary components order [and future royalties] from SONY… and increasing sales of technology development and licensing from 10 or so Consumer Electronics giants from US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.

When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in MicroVision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 3 to 5 years.

Is MicroVision ready for prime time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

In three to five years from now in 2017, the stock could easily trade in the $100 to $400 range. 

No matter how you slice-it or dice-it, MicroVision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

MicroVision’s PicoP display engine could also lead the “standalone” rat pack [with its Celluon PicoAir projector for example] because of the following...

Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) will make the MicroVision's PicoP projector at par with competition... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

“A wide angle view means that MicroVision PicoP projector can show a wider screen at closer distant!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With MicroVision PicoP projector you get…

“A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus”.

Laser based PicoP projectors will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector [with DLP or LcoS] every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

MicroVision PicoP projector has better image quality [at 80,000 to 1 contrast ratio] and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using.  The use of diffused light source, like LEDs or lamps, causes the "torch light" effect... meaning the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

MicroVision’s PicoP projectors can go from 12inch to 250inch image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what MicroVision is offering. We will soon find out what [else] MicroVision has to offer when Celluon PicoAir [currently at 32 lumen] comes out with 50 lumen and higher brightness.

Celluon’s PicoAir [using MicroVision PicoP display engine] was launched this January and is currently shipping… and is getting raving reviews. Competition, like 3M and TI, have their LED based Pico projectors on the market for over four years… but they are not selling too well… and their prices keep coming down almost every month.

According to the new market research report "Pico Projector Market - Forecasts to 2020", the pico projector market is estimated to reach $9.32 billion by 2020; growing at a CAGR of 39.82% from 2014 to 2020.

However, the laser based PicoP projector market is expected to grow at must faster rate CAGR of 56.95% and take-off in 2014.

Here’s an excerpt from the independent study

“The technology market entails three major types including Digital Light Processing (DLP), Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCOS), and Laser Beam Steering (LBS). Currently, the majority of pico projectors are being developed based on DLP technology, however it has been estimated that in future, pico projectors would be mostly based on laser technology. DLP accounted for a market share of 56.90% in 2014 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.53% between 2014 and 2020. Laser Beam Steering (LBS) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 56.95% between 2014 and 2020.”

Competition is good and will help with faster adoption of the Pico projector by the billion plus unit market. To be a huge [financial] success, MicroVision needs only a small percentage of the overall market that finally adopts the technology.

My money is “still” on MicroVision. However, I am keeping an eye on the competition… including TI, 3M and Syndiant.

For an in-depth report on “Opportunity of a Lifetime”, please click here…


Thursday, June 21, 2012

MicroVision | End of the Road or End of the Tunnel


The last post I wrote about MicroVision was over a year ago; and the title was the most revealing and depressing…

MicroVision: Major Cost Cutting Measures or Death Spiral?  

A year later─ after blowing another $40 million or so down the hole, and 1 for 8 reverse split─ we seem to be at another juncture in the MicroVision saga.  This time; it’s either the end of the road or end of the tunnel for MicroVision.

Over the last year, we have seen some major cost cutting measures… but still burning $20 million dollars or so per year.  On surface it seems like a good effort… but not good enough to save the company while still waiting for Diode Green Lasers.

At the rate MVIS stock prices is going [down]; it looks like the end of the road… but there is, at the same time, hope that it could be the end of the tunnel and some green light of hope setting into the picture.

There we go again, the good old pesky Diode Green Lasers─ the Holy Grail to the MicroVision salvation.

Before we get into details and start talking about pesky Diode Green Lasers and Holy Grail and such… lets re-visit the issues once more…

Lately, there has been very little visible activity or news at MicroVision─ other than more stock issues and dilution.  And that makes me wonder: “What's up with no SHOW at the Displayland of laser based Pico Projectors?”

Here's the latest scoop and thinking based on some consumer feedback...
  1. Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, regardless of the brand name or the underlying technology, are a toy as a standalone device... but the market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range. However, anything better than 15 lumen is definitely a differentiating improvement and worthy of $149 to $199 price tag.
  2. Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, using panel or DLP/LED technology, use too much battery power and need constant focusing... and they will also have other gating [like size and heat] issues making into the mobile devices. If panel/DLP/LED technology gets past the mobile platform gating issues; but at fifteen lumens they will still be considered a toy.  However, the market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range... especially when someone else [like AT&T or Verizon] is paying for it. 
  3. Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, using MEMS/DGL technology, present a more favorable solution to the battery power issues and do not need constant focusing... and they will have far fewer mobile platform gating issues.  However, at fifteen lumen such laser based devices will still be considered toy... but market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range... especially when someone else is paying for it.
Bottom line is...

“... Can MicroVision make 25 or 30 lumen bright DGL based HD IPMs [High Definition Integrated Photonic Modules] for embedded Pico projectors in millions; and make them cheap enough to be able to sell them in the $149 to $199 range; and manage to stave-off the financial death spiral by showing some net profit on each sale?”

A few dollars profit on each unit sold could easily translate into millions of dollars in profit when adoption rates in handheld devices accelerate into hundreds of million units in the next 3-5 years.

In my opinion, the answer, with some qualifications, is an astounding yes.

Here’s why…

Sony, Sumitomo push laser projectors forward with a new, more powerful green laser diode

By Richard Lawler
Posted June 21st, 2012 7:47AM

Sumitomo Electric and Sony Announce the Joint-Development of the World's First True Green Semiconductor Laser Diode with over 100 mW Output Power at 530nm

Achieves Twice the Luminosity of Conventional Gallium Nitride Green Laser Diodes

Here’s the link to the Press Release from Sony…


This is the best news in the history of MicroVision. Because Diode Green Laser at over 100 mW in the true green region wavelength of 530 nm and at 8% wall efficiency…

“… Will allow MicroVision to produce 25 to 30 lumen bright HD IPMs that will take less energy and can be scaled to millions at much reduced cost.”

Now here’s the question for the CEO and BODs of MicroVision...

“After five years of financial orgy─ that produced insignificant amount of sales [of anything] but involved dozens of highly paid managers [and support staff] in the PR, IR, Sales, Marketing, Business Development, Administration, Global Product Management, etc─ can you deliver, now that you have efficient DGLs that you always wanted?”

Or you have another excuse, like…

“… We have cut the fat so deep; it may be “slicing the bone” and caused structural damage to the integrity of the company.”

Investors of MicroVision want to know?

Better still…

“Why not all of you re-sign with some dignity and let competent management team takeover from here?

The last hand is in play... and over the next 6 months it’s the do or quit time for MicroVision brass.


Producer CEO - RKNet Studios

Producer - Movie 'Pyar Mein Kyun'
 

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Microvision: Goes Sour on Apple?

There may not be any Apple in Microvision future… because Apple has considered but never [yes that’s right] warmed-up to the idea of embedding a pico projector, Microvision’s or anyone else’s, in any of its product line.

That’s a very bold statement and demands due diligence and research to support this argument.

First, watch this Alex Tokman interview video dated September 27, 2010. Watch carefully; from three minutes seven seconds to three minutes thirty five seconds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MQtsuj1y-I&feature=youtube_gdata_player

AT sounds sour on Apple don’t you think? For someone who used to answer questions about Apple as: “Apple world loves us”… now talks about Apple as a forgone conclusion in the iPhone vs. Google Android battle of the giants. Google Android is a new entrant to the smartphone arena and anyone worth listening to in this technology space would tell you: “it’s too early to tell who would be the leader… if there is going to be one at all in the first place?”

AT sounds sour on Apple and there may be a good reason for it.

Vast majority of technologists with-in Apple camp are convinced that pico projection technology is not mature enough to risk the integrity of their established technology offering… like computing, MP3 player, or mobile me platform [iPad, iPhone]. Unless there is an Apple product genre that offers pico projection as a primary function… there is very little chance of a pico projector making its way into the existing Apple product line? Unfortunately, that is not the only issue.

Another issue with an embedded pico projector inside any of the Apple product line, according to my sources, are the concern for primary product reliability and common mode failure caused by or because of the embedded pico projector functionality.

The reasoning goes like this...

“Pico projection is relatively new technology; with very little, if any, proven performance and reliability track record. If the pico projector goes on the fritz, the primary functionality of the iPad, iPhone or iWhatever is lost and the entire unit must be repaired or replaced”

That does not sound too good for embedded pico projectors for the Apple product line… at least for now.

However, all is not lost.

Smart companies have figured out the way around Apple’s position on embedded pico projectors. They are coming out with hand held pico projectors as an accessory unit for the Apple products─ like Microvision SHOWwx for one example, or as a docking station for the Apple mobile me products [iPod, iPhone, iPad] with added bells and whistles.

Anant Goel

Disclaimer: These comments are author’s personal observations and opinions and are based on his own research conducted recently.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Microvision: Stock at the End of its Transition Phase

Every growth stock falls into 1 of 3 categories…

1. The Romance Phase

2. The Transition Phase

3. The Reality Phase

Most growth stocks tend to pass through three phases of growth… romance, transition and reality. By knowing which phase a stock is in, you can quickly determine whether the profits are just beginning… or the well is drying up fast. Needless to say, this can make the decision to buy, sell or hold significantly easier. And its decisions like these that will make or break your success in investing.

You may say that in case of Microvision, the romance is gone and the transition is at an end, and the reality of situation [green laser issue] has become clear. And in your opinion in this phase, the company’s entire financial future depends on the availability and the cost of green lasers. Since the company has made no effort to incorporate any other type of light source to power its PicoP Display Engine, the core of its entire product line, it is fair to say that Microvision will thrive or perish by the green laser sword.

Some of you have lived through the romance phase, which peaked in year 2000 with the MVIS stock trading well over $63… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology. Those that did not cash out after the romance phase, the most profitable phase, and are still holding the MVIS stock and they have battle scars to prove their passage through the three phases of growth in the life of a company. Now we are at the tail end of the transition phase, when blemishes appear and public’s perception of the company starts to diminish.

If you feel that we all have made a mistake in believing and staying too long in MVIS stock and are in the same boat at this point in time? We all have, for whatever the reason, stayed little too long in this stock and are now paying the price of dealing with uncertain future and muted enthusiasm of a product launch… that revolves around a core component from green laser supply chain! If that’s what you believe, and can think with a cool head and not point fingers, then continue reading, as I would like to share some facts, figures and analysis?

Microvision story is not over yet. It is, however, certainly the end of the romance phase and we are now successfully transitioning to the reality phase. If you dig deeper, you will find that it is just the beginning that is based on reality of Microvision’s financial and cost structure and will resume its momentum to renewed success based on improving availability and cheaper cost of green lasers… the Achilles heel to Microvision’s financial success. This may sound like a wish full conclusion to Microvision saga… but fortunately that happens to be the conclusion of my analysis based on findings of facts and figures.

So stay tuned and let’s continue with our analysis…

The Romance Phase: is the most profitable phase by far and is the one that you’ll want to focus on… that is, if you were lucky enough to be around during the early life stages of Microvision in year 2000. It’s in this phase that a fortune can be amassed very quickly, long before most investors are even aware that the company exists. Yet at some point, the stock’s price and its Relative Performance (RP) line will reach all-time highs. This tells you the Romance in the stock has peaked. This is when most analysts, if there are any following the stock, would recommend selling it. In case of MVIS stock, the first Romance peak took place in March of year 2000 when the stock traded in the $63 plus range.

The second Romance peak took place in June of 2007 when the management announced “Agreement with Motorola”. At the height of this Romance peak, the MVIS stock traded in the $6 range. It happened too quick [in less than two months] and the RP line indicated that it had not peaked and there was lot more momentum left for the stock to go still higher... to over $10 or so we believed. Also, the pico projector sector was just in initial stages of taking-off... as we know is happening right now. It took us a few months to realize the issues with SHG green laser technology and the resulting cost and supply constraints.

In hindsight, we may call it our greed that made us stay in this stock too long or may be it was our collective belief that there was more good news to come. How could it all start, take-off and crash in less than three months? Well, it did and the reasons are too well known to all of us so I won’t repeat them here.

The Transition Phase: can last from few months to several years. In case of Microvision, the Transition Phase started in September of 2007 when I first wrote about the technical issues that Corning was having with their SHG green lasers. This is when the blemishes appeared and the public’s perception of the stock started to diminish. It’s at this stage in the life of a company, like Microvision, that the company’s technology may fumble, the earnings may stumble [if there were any], the cash flow may turn negative [or cash burn may accelerate], the financing may disappear, the flaws in business growth strategy start showing-up in negative revenue growth [or as loss of revenue] and other issues start popping-up such as legal, financial, and key employee departures, etc.

Sooner or later the issues will get resolved and the company’s earnings will grow again… but only after the stock has bottomed and then, after an excruciating period, has started its next major advance.

Now we are at the tail end of the “Transition Phase”. During the Transition Phase, the blemishes [like technical problems with green lasers] appeared and public’s perception of the company diminished to such low levels as to bring the MVIS stock down to $0.80 in March 2009.

Many of the red-hot lovers who romanced MVIS on the way up have left the stock, and it's their selling pressures, driven by reduced perceptions, that have been pushing the MVIS stock down… and the bear market of 2008 hasn't helped, either. Every time a diehard long who had sworn to hold the stock forever gives up in disgust, the stock is pushed a little lower.

It's not the company's fault that Corning had repeatedly failed to deliver on the SHG green laser, a core component for making laser PicoP projectors. If the delay was reasonable, and not the 30 months, the MVIS stock would have traded rationally, based on earnings from a potentially gigantic global market. This stock would have been nowhere near as low as the 80 cents last March, and it would be certainly traded higher now than it currently is… at $2.69 and excruciating to hold it at this level.

But stock prices are determined by investors. And investors are people. People who fall-in and fall-out of love! People who buy with visions of profits and sell in disgust when their dreams are dashed! People who drive stocks to irrational heights and then sell them to irrational depths! That's what makes investing a challenge ... and very profitable, if you know what you're doing.

The Reality Phase: With Romance gone and the transition at end, the reality of the situation has become clear. In this final phase, the Reality Phase, the company could have taken one of the two roads… the road to renewed success… or the road to oblivion.

Microvision has struggled for over the last 30 months to deal with the core component─ green laser─ supply issue during the Transition Phase. All through this phase, Microvision managed to stay funded and fully staffed to aggressively pursue product development and continue with research to enlarge its intellectual property rights.

Finally, Corning has resolved its green laser yield issues and is now ramping production. Osram is coming on-line rapidly to become the second source of SHG green lasers… with a better, cheaper and higher yielding product. During the Transition Phase, Microvision management made some hard decisions to control cost, proactively raise funding─ even though it was considered unpopular with the investors, and aggressively pursued R&D to enlarge its IP portfolio and took measures to protect its intellectual property.

Over this last cycle, in my opinion, the MVIS stock price has bottomed at $1.96. The Transition Phase is over and the Reality Phase has kicked-in, or it will on March 8th after the earnings conference call.

It’s then; when analysis of the stock should become a little easier for investors who base their decisions on fundamentals. If the company's sales and earnings are growing, as I expect them to do very rapidly, the stock will rise, too. But it will do it in a far more rational manner, reflecting the reality of the company's sales and earnings growth potential over the next few years.

Before I leave you, consider this…

We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “Validation Phase”. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders─ from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator, represent …

• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.

• Validation of Corning green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.

• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size, always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications, and no waste heat generation.

• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.

• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.

• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments… and the waste heat, hot enough to cook eggs sunny-side-up.

• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 200 issued and filed patents and with many more to come.

• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.

• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.

• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.

• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.

Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.

Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:

First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...

http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf

After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increase in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.

Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…

• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]

• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]

• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units

• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units

• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine

• Revenue: $4 billion

• Net Profit Margin: 40%

• Net Profit: $1.6 billion

• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]

• Interest Expense: $0 million

• Interest Income: $20 million

• Tax: $220million

• Depreciation: non cash and very small

• Amortization: non cash and very small

• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion

• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]

• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company

• Price Per Share: $390 per share

In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 4 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.

Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP Display Engines will be larger than the supply."

This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place [like selling SHOWwx and its derivatives directly to US consumers] that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.

It’s ironic how we as investors act sometimes…

We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.

Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, and recognition by industry like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.69.

What, am I missing something here?

Don't tell me it has something to do with hot milk!

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Microvision: US Launch of SHOWwx in Late March or Early April

That’s the rumor up and down the supply chain.

Currently, so it seems, the emphasis is on shipping everything to full fill back orders from the existing customers… such as Mint Wireless, Uniden and Vodafone.

SHOWwx shipments in 2009 were very small and the quantities shipped blatantly fly foul in the face of publicly stated [or projected] quantities that we were made to believe. I don’t know how AT plans on covering his tracks to justify grossly misstated projections for quantities… but then again, he doesn’t have to because projections are just that─ projections.

I wish Microvision management comes clean with whatever it is; or was; or was said or done… just get-on with business at hand and move forward from this day onwards.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Microvision: Missing from Mobile World Congress meet in Barcelona – February 15-18, 2010

Mobile World Congress is being held in Barcelona [Spain] from February 15-18, 2010.

Here’s the link...
http://www.mobileworldcongress.com/sponsors/sponsors.htm

Last year, Microvision was there as one of the exhibitors and got some very good reviews for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx...

http://vimeo.com/3340611

However, this year Microvision is not at the Mobile World Congress meet.

Do you know why?

That’s right... because Vodafone is there as one of the sponsor of this event. And Vodafone is Microvision’s first Mobile Phone Carrier customer.

Here’s the link to the post on this subject...
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-vodafone-is-first-mobile.html

Looks like things are finally coming together as they should be; at this stage of product launch.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Microvision: Vodafone is the first Mobile Phone Carrier as Customer for the Laser Based PicoP Projector SHOWwx

Here’s the news from this morning and is translated from Spanish…

VODAFONE SPAIN LAUNCHES PICO PROJECTOR "SHOWWX" - MICROVISION

The pico Projector "SHOWWX" is an innovative portable laser projector for large projected images when connected to the mobile phone or PC or laptop.

The business and professional customers Vodafone can have this innovative device from 289 €. It will also be available through the Points Program and will be marketed jointly with the smartphone Mini Nokia N97.

Madrid, December 1, 2009 - Vodafone Spain launches Pico projector SHOWWX, an innovative hand portable projector Microvision Inc. (Nasdaq: MVIS), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature devices for projection and image capture products for mobility applications.

The peak SHOWWX projector uses a revolutionary technology based device laser that projects images of large, bright and alive, who are always focused, regardless of projection distance.

The accessory is a portable projector easy to use and simple management for Users who want to watch and share spontaneous mobile TV, movies, photos, presentations and other content. Customers can use their pocket projector anywhere and connect it to your mobile phone output video, to your laptop or netbook, the computer or to other music devices as MP3'sy with other devices that have video output or VGA functionality and share the experience of a large screen for business presentations on anytime, anywhere. Depending on the ambient light, the size of images projects can range from 12 to 200 ".

New customers can have this innovative device from 289 (without i.v.a.). Customers also will be available through the Points Program, for example for a client with 1200 points, will be available for 247 € (this price includes permanence). Also be marketed jointly with the smartphone Mini Nokia N97.

Alexander Tokman, Microvision President and CEO commented: "We are very proud that Vodafone Spain SHOWWX marketed to their customers. We believe that SHOWWX truly provide a visual experience upgraded to Vodafone customers and an important factor for value added functionality of their mobile devices".

"The introduction of peak SHOWWX Microvision's laser projector in Spain represents a great opportunity for Vodafone to offer value to our customers to improve their experience with their mobile devices, "explained Ignacio Roman, Director of Terminals Business Unit for Spain and Portugal Vodafone.

View images at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vodafone_es

Here’s the link to Vodafone web site…
http://www.vodafone.es/conocenos/sala-prensa/notas-prensa/2009/1dic09(3).jsp

Here’s the link to Spanish version pdf file at the Vodafone web site…
http://www.vodafone.es/conocenos/sala-prensa/notas-prensa/2009/att00045046/NP_VODAFONE-PICOPROYECTOR(1dic09).pdf

This is what Microvision had to say at this early in the morning…
http://twitter.com/microvision

Now there is a post at Microvision blog site The Displyground...

Vodafone Spain Launches Microvision’s SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1249#respond

Well, there you have it.

The news we have been waiting for, while getting all beat-up and bruised by the Wall Street Wizards that gobbled up 11 million shares of Microvision at $3:00 over the Thanksgiving week.

All we got for Thanksgiving was belly-full of turkey and plenty of margin calls for leftovers.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Microvision: You Have Competition [Updated]

November 12 2009

I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection "standalone" space... 3M with LcoS and TI with DLP technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

Microvision’s laser pico pojector SHOWwx could still lead the “standalone” rat pack because of the following:

• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) will make SHOWwx at par with competition... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

• “A wide angle view means that SHOWwx can show a wider screen at closer distant!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's SHOWwx you get…

“A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus”.

• Laser based pico projectors like SHOWwx will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

• SHOWwx has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based pico projectors like SHOWwx do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.

• Microvision’s SHOWwx can go from 12inch to 200inch diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.

• SHOWwx projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.

• SHOWwx projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.

• SHOWwx has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.

• Microvision’s PicoP display engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser G-2000 from Corning.  After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…

"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."

Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/

Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.

Microvision will be demonstrating several integrated product(s) at the CES 2010 expo in January and have signed-up a few major players to evaluate commercial PEKs.  Competition, like 3M and TI, have their LED based pico projectors on the market for over six months… but they are not selling too well… and their prices keep coming down almost every month.

However, Pico projector market is just developing and is expected to take-off in 2010…

http://fixed-mobile-convergence.tmcnet.com/topics/mobile-communications/articles/54130-report-picoprojector-revenues-will-exceed-1-billion.htm

Competition is good and will help with faster adoption of pico projectors by the billion plus unit market. To be a huge financial success, Microvision needs only a small percentage of the overall market that finally adopts the technology.

My money continues to be on Microvision.

However, I am keeping an eye on the competition… including TI, 3M, Syndiant and host of others that have joined in the foray.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Microvision: Ultimate in Mobility… Functionality… Cool Factor

It would be cool if Microvision's “Image by PicoP” had its name on this cube…

http://www.psfk.com/2009/05/60-inch-screen-in-your-pocket.html

“The Nokia Pulse, a concept by Miika Mahonen, is similar to the soon to be released Microvision Mobile Projector. They’re both designed to be powerful mobile display systems that can use a mobile phone as the source of video and as a remote control. The Nokia Pulse also combines an NXT-speaker with Dolby sound processing into the compact device, which can (theoretically) project images up to 60-inches on any wall.”

“While the Pulse is still just an idea, Microvision is currently working with other companies to incorporate their light engine into other devices such as phones and laptops. Is screen size on your mobile phone irrelevant if you can project onto any wall?”

[via Yanko Design]

Active links…

Microvision Mobile Projector: http://www.psfk.com/2009/02/video-microvisions-amazing-mobile-projector.html

Yanko Design: http://www.yankodesign.com/2009/05/21/pocket-projector-turns-mobile-into-remote-2/

Just imagine, with Microvision’s laser PicoP display engine in-side, this cube could be the ultimate in mobility, functionality and cool factor.

Not only that, it is a productivity enhancing tool for business communications, as well as, a perfect product for personal and interactive entertainment… all in one cool package.

Anant Goel

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Microvision: Market Makers… Ready… Smile… Action

If you have watched the Microvision stock price action over the last few years, you will come to the same conclusion that I have...

"The market maker needs volatility to continue making market for a stock like MVIS… where there are currently more retail investors and also where the stock is tied to Russell 2000 index. In other words, the MM is dealing with very unpredictable buying and selling patterns for MVIS stock… and the options are very thinly traded."

This is what the MM is dealing with…

During times when everyone wants to buy the stock, the market maker sells from inventory and sells the excess [of what is not matched by a seller] and ends-up more short stock than he really wants to... but is able to buy Calls if and when available. Buying Calls may be under his control, however, he still needs the counter party [a willing seller of Calls]. So, the MM ends-up short MVIS stock without a hedge. And that’s what happened when the stock moved from $3.30 to $5.52 in matter of 4 weeks [from 9/3 thru 9/30]… and on some very heavy volume. This is when FUD mongers go to work and create selling pressure first as profit taking and then accelerated selling based on fear, uncertainty and doubt. When the mission is accomplished, and FUD related selling is in full force, the MM covers and starts to build inventory for the next round of buying from the investor community… either natural buying pressure or forced by act of GOD [greed, optimism and deception].

It took FUD mongers, with help from our trader brethrens, just 7-trading days [from 10/20 thru 10/27] to bring the MVIS stock down to $3.70 from $5.52. Sometimes it makes you wonder how many of these FUD managers exist on the Yahoo Message Board for MVIS stock. I’m sure that those fellow long term investors, who like to trade for the sake of a few pennies, do more damage to their cause and then wonder: Who’s done it?

On the flip side, in times when everyone wants to sell, the market maker buys the excess [of what is not matched by a buyer] and ends-up with more inventory than he really wants to hold and there is no way [in case f MVIS stock] for him to hedge this position by buying Puts… because no one in their right mind wants to sell Puts on MVIS. So, the MM ends-up with tons of shares of MVIS and basically no hedge. And that’s what has happened over a 7-trading day period [from 10/20 thru 10/27] when the stock plunged from $5.52 to $3.70 in matter of 9 days… and on some very heavy volume.

But wait!!!

Wasn’t the selling from 10/20 thru 10/ 27 [when the stock plunged from $5.52 to $3.70] orchestrated but short term profit takers, FUD mongers and fellow long traders? Then in reality, the MM has covered his short position [from the time stock ran-up] and now he has already build-up his inventory for the next round of buying… natural buying pressure from long investors or by acts of GOD [greed, optimism and deception].

Just look at the last 8-trading days [from 10/28 thru 11/6] when the stock traded flat on gradually lower and lower volume. The market maker had plenty of time to buy back stock, sell some calls and build-up his inventory.

Here's the stock chart...

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=MVIS

Very good “Sherlock”!

But there is another piece of the puzzle that needs to be brought into place… and that is the Implied Volatility.

So, the fist thing the MM does is to assign [or whatever it takes] to increase Implied Volatility of the stock… like go from 72% to 103% or more.

The next thing MM wants to do is to force the act of GOD, as soon as signs of optimism start to show-up again. With recent news about red laser shipments by Opnext, and sale of Pico projectors by Vodaphone ─ assumed to be the mobile phone carrier customer of Microvision, there is increasing optimism in the air. The next step would be for some greed and a little act of deception introduced into the mix for the next round of buying to commence. And of course, our ever so accommodating market maker is ready and willing… with basket full of freshly acquired MVIS stock in inventory.

After hours jump in MVIS stock price to $4.11 on Friday [November 6th], it is up by 30 cents on 1,000 shares. To me, it indicates that the market maker wants to take it higher… and the trading action over the last few days is very suspect in favor of this theory.

With low volume and low volatility of the last few days, it allowed the market maker to sell calls for 40 to 50 cents premium [on May 2.5 calls for example] and buy stock cheaply to hedge it. With the stock trading flat at $3.70 on very low volume, indicating few sellers and a few buyers, the market maker wants to stir-up the things a bit more to introduce volatility to continue selling more premium and hedge more by buying stock.

Does that mean the MM is now ready with freshly acquired inventory for the next round of stock price run-up?

I think so… because I have seen it done before in the past.

As they say: “history does repeat itself.”

Are you ready to deal with the next round of stock price run-up?

I hope so!!!

[Note: Selling puts is like taking huge potential down-side risk, and tie-up portfolio margin [below $5 MVIS is not margin able] for pittance of a return. Most intelligent investors would rather buy a $3.70 stock outright or at the most buy deep in the money calls to leverage their position.]

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Friday, November 6, 2009

Microvision: Short Squeeze Coming Soon

Get ready for short squeeze fellow Microvision investors.

A fast-moving, virtually unstoppable phenomenon that will shock most investors and leave many speculators ruined, even as it makes some of you longs rich.

Right now, most traders are making the exact WRONG move at the exact WRONG time. Short interest in Microvision stock is skyrocketing─ at 8.4 million shares as of October 15th, as all the SHORT lemmings trundle on towards the cliff.

Get ready for a replay of the summer rally— only bigger, faster and even more brutal to those on the wrong side of the move.

First consider the news from this morning…

Opnext to Supply Microvision with Red Laser Diodes for Mobile Pico Projectors

FREMONT, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Opnext, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPXT), a global leader in the design and manufacturing of optical modules and components, today announced that the Company has begun shipping its red laser diodes to Microvision for its PicoP® laser projection technology.

With this relationship, Opnext will supply red laser diodes for Microvision’s PicoP display engine. Potential applications for the PicoP technology include ultra-miniature displays for embedded or accessory applications for mobile phones, personal media players, laptops and future wearable display devices.

Laser-based microprojectors have a unique combination of features that are optimal for mobile device users, including infinite focus, rich color, and high contrast and resolution. Opnext’s red laser family of diodes play an important role in this rapidly emerging mobile-display market by providing customers with a visually rich multimedia experience.

“We are very proud that our red lasers developed for the pico projector market have been selected by Microvision, a true leader in the industry,” commented Gilles Bouchard, Opnext President and CEO. “This is a perfect example of how Opnext is driving new and exciting applications through innovation and partnership.”

Alexander Tokman, Microvision CEO stated, “Opnext is a leader in high performance red laser diodes for projection applications and we are pleased to be working with the Opnext team on this exciting endeavor.”

About Opnext

Opnext (NASDAQ:OPXT) is the optical technology partner of choice supplying systems providers and OEMs worldwide with the industry's largest portfolio of 10G and higher next generation optical products and solutions. The Company's industry expertise, future-focused thinking and commitment to research and development combine in bringing to market the most advanced technology to the communications, defense, security and biomedical industries. Formed out of Hitachi, Opnext has built on more than 30 years experience in advanced technology to establish its broad portfolio of solutions and solid reputation for excellence in service and delivering value to its customers. For additional information, visit www.opnext.com.

Continued…

*****
Here's the link...
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20091106005127&newsLang=en

The significance of this news is quite obvious…

“If Opnext is shipping the red laser diodes, then Osram is shipping the blue and green lasers as well.”

Think about it?

Why would Microvision need red laser diodes, if they did not have the supply of the blue and green from Osram? You do remember that Osram is the supplier of blue and green laser modules!

Here’s the link to that news…

http://www.your-story.org/microvision-signs-multi-year-agreement-with-osram-for-supply-of-green-and-blue-lasers-26113/

Microvision Signs Multi-Year Agreement with OSRAM for Supply of Green and Blue Lasers
Published Monday, September 7, 2009, 18:55

REDMOND, Wash.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Microvision, Inc. (Nasdaq:MVIS), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and image capture products for mobility applications announced today that it has entered into a supply agreement with OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH for the supply of green and blue lasers — key components of Microvision’s PicoP® display engine. The announcement is the second Microvision has made in recent months regarding procurement of green lasers for use in the company’s PicoP® display engine and accessory pico projector product called SHOWWX™.

Following recent success commercializing its blue laser technology, OSRAM has fourth quarter commercialization plans for its green frequency doubled laser for use in Microvision’s PicoP display engine. OSRAM is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of optoelectronic semiconductors for lighting, sensor and visualization applications.

Continued…

*****
In a nutshell, that means the second supplier of green laser Osram is on board with additional supplies and the quantities of SHOWwx laser PicoP projectors just more than doubled. With Corning and Osram both delivering on the green laser contracts, the quantities of SHOWwx that can be shipped now will increase month over month.

That leads me to believe, we can expect to see more announcements of purchase orders from OEMs and mobile phone operators in the future… month over month.

The recent pull back in MVIS stock price was due to the uncertainty associated with green laser supply. With Osram coming on board, with their superior and cheaper green lasers, the ball game has changed and the perceived uncertainty just got squashed in the bud.

We have discussed in my previous posts…

“Having established the huge market size [and consumer preferences] for pico projector lets move on to identifying the leading pico projection technology that hopes to fulfill the consumer needs…

Please read this very informative post on the subject…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in.html

Now consider this about the recent activity in Microvision stock…

Stock Volatility: Over the last few weeks, both the “Historical Volatility” and “Implied Volatility” have come down gradually. Currently, the HV is 80 and the IV is 96. Looks like we now have more believers [long] than speculators [shorts] on board. Also, this stock is now part of Russell 2000/3000 and as such is subject to small cap market volatility… which has been coming down in recent weeks.

Volatility is unavoidable in small-cap investing. It can be a gut-wrenching, stress-inducing part of the small-cap investing experience, or it can be the grease that runs the profit machine. Where a 3% move in Microsoft or McDonald's would be out of the ordinary, good or bad news can routinely move small caps' share prices more than 10%. It can be tough for an investor to handle, but the determining factor is self-discipline.

• Perform due diligence before pulling the trigger to buy or sell

Investors sometimes invest without understanding the company's business. Then, at the first sign of negative volatility, they finally scramble to look at the firm's financial statements. That's being reactive, not proactive. You need to understand a company before investing in it. If the stock happens to rally to unattractive levels while you're doing your research, you'll nonetheless be in a great position to buy when the stock inevitably dips. If the stock falls, you'll know more about the company and therefore be less prone to panic. Cognitive scientists have determined that uncertainty is one of the most stressful and painful emotional states. Prior due diligence reduces the element of surprise and is the most effective way of minimizing investment uncertainty.

• Due diligence does not only include checking the criteria for buying a stock. With rare exception, it should also include formulating the conditions for selling based on the stock's valuation. Because small-cap companies often have greater growth prospects than blue-chip companies, your reasons for selling a small-cap company are more apt to change

Stock Short Interest: Over the last few weeks, the short interest has gone up and now stands at 13% [8.38 million shares] of the float [63.03 million shares]. All in all, at the current low average volume per day, it will take about 10 days to cover… about 8.38 million shares short… trading 895,000 shares per day average over the last 3 months.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=MVIS&selected=MVIS

Stock Trading Range: For a period of four weeks [from September 21 to October 22] the stock traded over $5 in a very tight range of “$5.02 to $5.52”. We have seen some very volatile days on Wall Street in the last 10 days [from October 24 to November 4]… and the stock has come down to $3.70 and now seems to be holding at this level as a very strong support… and waiting for next announcement of news. The stock price has crossed under the 50 day moving average [at $4.50] and seems to have very strong support at $3.66 or so. This is where the stock price was before the commercial launch of SHOWwx [on September 15th] and three purchase orders in October. The reason for the stock price drop, in my opinion, is due mainly to the uncertainty associated with quantities of green lasers that are essential to fulfilling the three initial purchase orders.

Here’s the stock chart…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358

However, if you look at the P&F [point and figure] chart the stock is still in the uptrend channel with a “bullish price” of $8.31.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=MVIS,P&listNum=

Stock Holding: Institutions hold about 14.40% and the Insiders hold over 16.93% of the outstanding stock [63.19 million float on a fully diluted basis]. This means that over 68.67% of the float is held by retail investors. This is a very wide distribution of MVIS stock… a good sign for PPS support [during lean times] and PPS momentum [during good times] when institutions finally wake-up and come looking to take position in the MVIS stock directly… or decide to invest aggressively in small cap stocks indexed by Russell 2000/3000.

My technical indicators are forecasting another big run-up in the market and the MVIS stock over the next 6-8 weeks, or longer.

Most investors missed out in March and August. And most investors are missing out again right now.

Any pullback in Microvision stock price will be short-lived.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime (Part 5)

The cost of missing out can be greater than the cost of messing up.

“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.” …Leonard Ravenhill

From time to time, during the course of our lives, we are granted the "opportunity of a lifetime. It's a chance that doesn't come our way very often, and usually one that would result in enormous financial benefits to us… if we can manage to get hold of it before it fades away.

Here’s the REASON #5… to not let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…

Microvision: Paradigm Shift “Atoms” to “Bits”

No, this article is not about breaking Atoms into Bits… like in nuclear fission.

It is, however, all about the next wave of change, a paradigm shift, where real physical things [made-up of Atoms] are giving way to virtual things that physically don’t exist but function equally well with interweaved streams of bits, bytes, electrons and photons.

Consider this…

The Internet and mobile networks have reached a critical mass in terms of adoption, ease and speed of access, and data and financial security. This critical mass is now forging the next wave of change or a paradigm shift called “Atoms” to “Bits”. In the last few years, as you may have noticed, physical things [made up of Atoms] are giving way to electrons, photons and bits & bytes… in more of our every day activities and lives.

Some examples would be: comparison shopping on-line from virtual stores and paying by credit cards; on-line prescriptions; accessing & retrieving information on-line; banking and paying bills on-line; communications and information exchange on-line; rich text and video e-mails; on-line advertising and promotions; podcast & webcast; webinars and distant learning from virtual universities; telecommuting, teleconferencing and video conferencing; streaming videos in place of DVDs; on-line brokerage and virtual trading platforms; electronic buying and selling commodity exchanges, etc.

I think you get the idea. This paradigm shift has been underway for a while… but it is only recently [in the last three to four years] that it’s having a profound impact on brick & mortar type businesses. The on-line B2B and B2C business has grown from a few billion dollars a year to hundreds of billions of dollars in year 2009. And at the rate we are going, further technological enhancements in Internet, mobile networks, RGB lasers, nano technologies, augmented reality and automation will further increase the virtual commerce to over a trillion dollars in a short few years.

The paradigm shift from “Atoms” to “Bits”, as I call it, will be detrimental to many traditional businesses that still maintain monolithic physical presence and hang-on to the old business model in spite of visible signs of change and the resultant demand destruction for many traditional products and services. When you consider the impact of rising operating costs, higher taxes, rising fuel cost and higher costs of raw materials of all kind… you have the making of a witch’s brew that is sure to knock out any business that fails to change with the times. Those companies that recognize the evolution of Internet; mobile networks; augmented reality; nano technology; dramatic shift to virtual commerce; and automation ─ and have the vision to recognize its far-reaching impact on traditional business models, can capitalize from the revolution and not be its victim.

Blockbuster is a good example, shutting down stores and developing new alliances with cable operators. Rite-Aid looks like a bankruptcy candidate… unless they find a way to improve their balance sheet. And how about those high vacancy rates in malls, shopping centers and the ever so declining foot traffic of shoppers into such establishments?

Companies that fail to embrace the Real Time nature of globally connected New World Economy of the Internet and mobile networks will slowly disappear… cut down to nothing by the competition… or be acquired at massive discounts.

Massive changes are taking place in the way business is done, customers are acquired and served, financial transactions are conducted, risk is managed, and investments are made today. You can embrace the changes and go with the flow, to capitalize and gain from it, or be a victim of the change itself. Choices are simple but the impact will be massive. The real time information, traveling at the speed of light to billion(s) of informed and educated potential customers, consumers and investors around the globe, can very quickly take your company to higher levels of financial success or, on the flip side, simply cut it down to size forever.

The subject of this post, paradigm shift from Atoms to Bits, is not only complex but is very broad in nature and it’s not my intent to discuss it here at any great detail in this forum. However, I do intend to discuss two major changes that are taking place right under our noses… and directly impact our investment in companies like Microvision and Apple...

Change #1: Computer laptops are taking over and dominating the PC world. Every year the laptop adoption rates have grown dramatically over their desktop brethren. IDC predicts the number of worldwide mobile workers will reach 1 billion─ including nearly 75% of the U.S. workforce ─ by the end of 2011. Is your company prepared for this shift in the mobile workforce? Download this new report to see what IDC has to say about mobile worker population trends, forecasts and technology recommendations.

Here’ the link…
http://whitepapers.silicon.com/0,39024759,60431682p,00.htm

Notebook Computers: It is well known that the screen size [of billion strong mobile workforce using laptops] is one of the main determining factors in laptop form-factor design. Vendors and consumers alike are pulled in opposite directions: Make the computer smaller, but improve screen readability. Adding mobile projection allows for smaller form factor design while providing a large screen display when desired. The market size for pico projectors, therefore, is huge to the tune of over a billion units world-wide.

Change #2: We already know the ubiquitous nature of the Internet, the laptops and mobile phones around the world. However, what we may not know that there is yet another mega change taking place right under our noses…

The mobile phones have become ubiquitous globally on one hand… and on the other hand we have the smartphones taking market share from the mobile phones. The billion or so a year mobile phone market is giving way to the smartphones.

• Smartphones are rapidly replacing the classic mobile phones around the globe

“Worldwide mobile phone sales totalled 286.1 million units in the second quarter of 2009, a 6.1 per cent decrease from the second quarter of 2008, according to Gartner, Inc. Smartphones sales surpassed 40 million units, a 27 per cent increase from the same period last year, representing the fastest-growing segment of the mobile-devices market.”

Here’s the link to Gartner report…
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1126812

"Smartphones sales were strong during the second quarter of 2009, with sales of 40.9 million units in line with Gartner's forecast of 27 per cent year-on-year sales growth for 2009," said Ms Milanesi. "Given the higher margins, smartphones offer the biggest opportunity for manufacturers. It is the fastest-growing market segment and the most resistant to declining ASPs."

Smartphones are feature rich mobile devices that consist of a mini-laptop with built-in mobile phone and connected to a service provider [carrier] via a broadband mobile network like the 3G. Smartphones are feature rich mobile phones and one of the key features that have plans to be offered in the high-end smartphones is a pico projector… as an accessory unit initially… followed by the embedded version in 2010. Future smartphones are expected to include, or offered as an option, a pico projector as a standard unit just like the digital camera is today.

It is my belief that in the coming short years all sorts of video devices and services will dominate our communications, collaboration, networking, entertainment and learning world.

• Pico projectors are being developed as an embedded feature in all things digital

The next popular categories that integrate pico projectors would be mobile computing [laptops] and communication [cell phones, smartphones] devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as personal media players [iPod], digital cameras, digital camcorders and Integrated Mobile TV/projectors.

Why pico projectors are such a rage all of a sudden… you may ask?

That’s a fair question and can be answered in four parts…

Part 1: Pico Projectors can add Big Screen Experience to Small Devices

Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat: “As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded pico projectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal.

Part 2: Rapidly Evolving Illumination Technologies like LEDs and Green Lasers

In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that Pico projectors will become part and parcel of relatively low cost cell phones, media players and other digital consumer electronic devices.

“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making Pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.

Part 3: Powerful & Always Connected. Functions Rich Devices with Enhanced Visual Experience

Today, the mobile devices are ubiquitous and if you were to project out the current trends another ten years…

“You will be carrying with you, on a 24x7 basis, a very powerful, always connected, functions & sensor-rich device with enhanced visual experience… called the Smartphones. And the cool thing is, so will everyone else. So what are you going to do with it that you aren't doing now?

Before we consider the possibilities, let’s first address the ubiquity of the mobile devices and extrapolate the current trends towards the mobile phones of the future for everyone on this planet. In other words, the mobile phones of to-day will pave the path to ubiquity for Smartphones of tomorrow… and that tomorrow may be here as early as the next 10 years. And what’s good for smartphones of tomorrow is indeed good for pico projectors as an accessory of as an embedded unit.

Consider this…

• There are currently about 3.2 billion mobile subscribers in the world, and that number is expected to grow by at least a billion in the next few years.
• Today, mobile phones are more prevalent than cars (about 800 million registered vehicles in the world) and credit cards (only 1.4 billion of those).
• While it took 100 years for landline phones to spread to more than 80% of the countries in the world, their wireless descendants did it in only 16 years.
• Fewer teens are wearing watches now because they use their phones to tell time instead. So it's safe to say that the mobile phone may be the most productive and ubiquitous consumer product ever invented.
However, have you ever considered just exactly how powerful these ubiquitous devices are and if the current trends were to be extrapolated… what future mobile device will look like? Whatever the name [or logo] on the cover, under the hood these mobile phones of the future will be the smartphones that will be very smart [pun intended] and very powerful. Smartphones like “Blackberry” considered a business tool are now successfully targeting consumers. On the other hand, “iPhone” considered a consumer product is now targeting business customers. Some day, they may converge and pretty much offer the same power, functionality, connectivity, long battery life and ease of use etc.

As more and more consumers switch to smartphones globally, the Blackberry and iPhone are picking up market share at the expense of foreign competitors such as Nokia.

However, the good news is that the overall smartphones market is growing faster than ever. In 2008, a total of 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold worldwide, according to IDC, of which some 160 million were smartphones, or 13%. In 2013, IDC predicts that 20% of the 1.4 billion mobile phones sold will be smartphones, or 280 million.

Currently, we know what smartphones like Blackberry and iPhone offer. What we don’t know and, therefore, we can only speculate what additional functionality and features the future smartphones may offer. Here’s a list of what the future may hold in store for the consumers…

Here’s the link to my post on this very subject…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in_19.html

There is one paragraph from the post that I want you to read again…

Enhanced Visual Experience: Not too long ago, a mobile phone offered only a one-to-one viewing experience with little room for personalization and lacking the cool factor. Soon Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will change the DNA of the phone, making it more visual, interactive and unique to the user. Taking this a step further, your cell phone will become a “one-to-many” tool, allowing us to share mobile content with groups of friends, family and colleagues. In the not-too-distant future, road warriors [the billion strong mobile workforces] will be showing presentations to a room full of colleagues via a projector accessory [SHOWwx] for their mobile phones. We have only begun to unleash the mobile visual experience.

Now, let’s take it a step further and gather some information from real life consumers that will eventually become user of enhanced communications products…

• Video vs. Other Forms of Communications: Research has shown that users prefer video communication over other forms of communication [sound, smell, touch] and video will continue to be the preferred means of all human communications.

• Users Preference for Image Quality: Research has shown that users prefer wide screen, high definition, 2D/3D video with fast refresh [without motion blur] and always in focus images for all forms of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.

• User Preference for Mobility: The entire world [users and service providers] is getting into the instant gratification mode and going mobile in all forms of communications and entertainment across the globe.

• Product Features Leading to Technological Convergence: Technological convergence is the tendency for different technological systems to evolve towards performing similar tasks. Today, we are surrounded by a multi-level convergent media world where all modes of communication and information are continually reforming to adapt to the enduring demands of technologies, “changing the way we create, consume, entertain, learn and interact with each other”.

Convergence in this instance is defined as the interlinking of computing and other information technologies, media content and communication networks that have arisen as the result of the evolution and ubiquity of the Internet as well as the activities, products and services that have emerged in the digital media space.

• Customers Requirements: Customers desire all digital/video devices to be low power, low cost, multi-media enabled, multi-tasking, integrated & all inclusive, easy to use, low maintenance, professionally supported and warranty serviced.

• Consumer Defined Shared vs. Private Information: Consumers desire the option [in product models or optional features] or built-in switch able flexibility in these digital/video devices to be able to switch between “shared” vs. “private” mode.

Having established the huge market size [and consumer preferences] for pico projector lets move on to identifying the leading pico projection technology that hopes to fulfill the consumer needs…

Laser based Pico display technology is superior to what’s out there right now… like DLP by Texas Instruments, LcoS by 3M and FLCOS by Micron Displaytech. The competition believed that green lasers wouldn’t be ready for years and its cost would be excessive. They also had concerns about laser projection “speckle” and laser safety issues. It is for these reasons, in my opinion, that they did not pursue the laser pico display technology path and essentially left the laser Pico technology to Microvision un-contested.

Microvision on the other hand believed in the green lasers as being the differentiating technology that would make Pico display engine as superior to LED based Pico projection technology… and also as a serious contender, in terms of quality and brightness of images, to the lamp based projection technology.

There were several hic-ups along the way. However, after three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, and 115 issued patents later, the world’s first laser based PicoP projector was commercially launched on September 15th, 2009.

Not only that, another announcement was made [on October 8th] of a major OEM purchase order as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…

“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.

To make the matter even more interesting, another announcement was made [on October 27th] of a purchase order from a World Leading Mobile Phone Operator…

Microvision Lands Order For SHOWWX Laser Pico Projectors With World Leading Mobile Phone Operator
Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 6:30 am EDT, Tuesday October 27, 2009

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and image-capture products for mobility applications, announced today that it has received an initial purchase order from its European distributor for its SHOWWX™ laser-based pico projector to be sold by one of the world’s top mobile phone operators. The initial quantities of SHOWWX are expected to be deployed within the next month in Europe and at that time more details are expected to be provided by the mobile carrier.

“We are extremely pleased to welcome our first global mobile phone operator as a SHOWWX launch customer for 2009,” stated Alexander Tokman, Microvision President and CEO. “Carriers serve as the frontline to mobile subscribers and as a result often influence mobile handset designs to include new features that delight their customers and help achieve a broader subscriber base and higher revenue per user. We believe that interest from one of the three largest carriers in the world in this application and specifically in Microvision’s PicoP® laser projection technology is an important first step towards future accessory and embedded opportunities.”

Microvision’s Made for iPod® SHOWWX laser pico projector, based on the PicoP display engine, delivers a colorful, vivid “big screen” viewing experience from a device about the size of a mobile phone. Users of the SHOWWX can also connect to other portable media players, mobile phones and notebooks to spontaneously share movies, YouTube™, photos, presentations and more with their friends, family or business associates. The SHOWWX can project images up to 200 inches across, depending on the ambient lighting conditions, without the user ever having to adjust focus.

*****

Here’s the link to press release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Lands-Order-For-bw-181864591.html?x=0&.v=1

We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator represent as …

• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.

• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.

• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.

• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.

• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.

• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments.

• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 115 issued patents and with many more on file.

• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser based PicoP projectors as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.

• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.

• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.

• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.

Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.

Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:

First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...

http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf

After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increases in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.

Here’s why…
In any investment, it is very important to look at RISK vs. REWARD.

After having done considerable amount of research and analysis of Microvision, I would like to share the following conclusions [in a summary form]….

Stock Volatility: Over the last few weeks, both the “Historical Volatility” and “Implied Volatility” have come down gradually. Currently, the HV is 80 and the IV is 96. Looks like we now have more believers [long] than speculators [shorts] on board. Also, this stock is now part of Russell 2000/3000 and as such is subject to small cap market volatility… which has been coming down in recent weeks.

Volatility is unavoidable in small-cap investing. It can be a gut-wrenching, stress-inducing part of the small-cap investing experience, or it can be the grease that runs the profit machine. Where a 3% move in Microsoft or McDonald's would be out of the ordinary, good or bad news can routinely move small caps' share prices more than 10%. It can be tough for an investor to handle, but the determining factor is self-discipline.

• Determine your small-cap investment criteria

Small-cap investing has high -- yet manageable -- risk, at least when compared to value or income investing. Significant returns probably will not materialize early on in any individual investment. A conscious decision on one's small cap risk limit is essential. Those relying on investments for regular income should be extremely cautious with small-cap investing.

• Perform due diligence before pulling the trigger

Investors sometimes invest without understanding the company's business. Then, at the first sign of negative volatility, they finally scramble to look at the firm's financial statements. That's being reactive, not proactive. You need to understand a company before investing in it. If the stock happens to rally to unattractive levels while you're doing your research, you'll nonetheless be in a great position to buy when the stock inevitably dips. If the stock falls, you'll know more about the company and therefore be less prone to panic. Cognitive scientists have determined that uncertainty is one of the most stressful and painful emotional states. Prior due diligence reduces the element of surprise and is the most effective way of minimizing investment uncertainty.

• Due diligence does not only include checking the criteria for buying a stock. With rare exception, it should also include formulating the conditions for selling based on the stock's valuation. Because small-cap companies often have greater growth prospects than blue-chip companies, your reasons for selling a small-cap company are more apt to change

Stock Short Interest: Over the last few weeks, the short interest has gone up and now stands at 11% [8.38 million shares] of the float [63.19 million shares]. All in all, at the current low average volume per day, it will take about 10 days to cover… about 8.38 million shares short… trading 895,000 shares per day average over the last 3 months.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=MVIS&selected=MVIS

Stock Trading Range: For a period of four weeks [from September 21 to October 22] the stock traded over $5 in a very tight range of “$5.02 to $5.52”. We have seen some very volatile days on Wall Street in the last 10 days [from October 24 to November 4]… and the stock has come down to $3.70 and now seems to be holding at this level as a very strong support… and waiting for next announcement of news. The stock price has crossed under the 50 day moving average [at $4.50] and seems to have very strong support at $3.66 or so. This is where the stock price was before the commercial launch of SHOWwx [on September 15th] and three purchase orders in October. The reason for the stock price drop, in my opinion, is due mainly to the uncertainty associated with quantities of green lasers that are essential to fulfilling the three initial purchase orders.

Here’s the stock chart…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358

However, if you look at the P&F [point and figure] chart the stock is still in the uptrend channel with a “bullish price” of $8.31.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=MVIS,P&listNum=

Stock Holding: Institutions hold about 14.40% and the Insiders hold over 16.93% of the outstanding stock [63.19 million float on a fully diluted basis]. This means that over 68.67% of the float is held by retail investors. This is a very wide distribution of MVIS stock… a good sign for PPS support [during lean times] and PPS momentum [during good times] when institutions finally wake-up and come looking to take position in the MVIS stock directly… or decide to invest aggressively in small cap stocks indexed by Russell 2000/3000.

Short Term Risk [next four weeks]: Over the next four weeks [up until the announcement of the European mobile phone carrier] the stock PPS could trade in tight range of $3.65 to $3.80… but hopefully does not trade any lower than $3.37. This is the short term risk to PPS… mainly due to lack of news or release of any significant news over the next few weeks.

Mid Term Risk [next 2 Qtrs]: There is a very strong possibility that an additional OEM contract [and purchase order] and increased quantities of SHOWwx shipments will be announced on a monthly basis from hereon. In such a case, the PPS may just take-off to new highs for the year and not look back. As we know, there is more demand for Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx than the supply of green lasers and that bodes well for the mid term future… as there could be monthly announcements of OEM contracts and agreements for rest of the year 2010.

Two of the supply chain issues could be “green laser cost” and “green laser volume production”. Feasibility and product development of the various PicoP display engine components is not an issue. The issue [if any] could be with the price and mass production of green lasers from Corning. The supply chain issue is real and has affected the full blown end of summer 2009 commercial product launch. The delay in large quantity shipments, however, may be short and you could see quick recovery in PPS… as the second green laser supplier Osram comes on board in the next few weeks.

Also, there is a strong possibility that the company may be selling some more shares to fund its short term cash flow needs beyond June 2010… in case there is cash flow short fall from sale of products and services. That’s the mid-term risk… but I will take it with a smile.

Long Term Risk [over 2 years]: If the company can fast track the volume production of PicoP display engines and SHOWwx laser projectors to a few million units a year [the good case scenario] or survives the “hostile” take-over attempt in the mid-term [precipitated as a result of major supply chain issues], there is no long term issue… because the market is huge and the company has leadership position in four (4) different product categories.

Reward: For those who understand the company’s — business model; the various products; the size [and the pull] of the captive world wide market— the rewards are phenomenal.

Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…

• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, camcorders, digital cameras, mobile TV/Projectors etc.]

• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]

• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units

• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units

• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine

• Revenue: $4 billion

• Net Profit Margin: 40%

• Net Profit: $1.6 billion

• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]

• Interest Expense: $0 million

• Interest Income: $20 million

• Tax: $220million

• Depreciation: non cash and very small

• Amortization: non cash and very small

• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion

• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]

• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company

• Price Per Share: $390 per share

In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 5 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.

Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP display engines will be larger than the supply."

Here’s the link to Microvision web site…
http://www.microvision.com/

This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/