Microvision: Hyper Growth in 2011

Rapid Development in Native [Diode] Green Laser Technology Sets PicoP™ Projector into Hyper Growth for Year 2011

In the emerging market for pico-projectors, as well as, other display techniques such as head-mounted display (HMD) or head-up display (HUD), the ideal light source would be a laser due to its capability to deliver highly saturated colors in the widest possible gamut.

Additional desirable features include focus-free operation, improvement in wall-plug efficiency─ reducing power consumption for battery operation, lower cost and high production scalability. The great advantage of laser projectors is a consistently sharp, always-in-focus, true-color, high-contrast image irrespective of the projection distance and projection surface

As we all know too well, the availability and cost of green lasers, both diode and SHG, has held back the progress in ramping-up production of laser based PicoP projectors.

However, there are three pieces of news, two from this morning and one from a year ago, that put the commercialization of laser based PicoP projectors from Microvision on steroids… for hyper growth in the year 2011.

First the old news from August 2009…

“Success in the laboratory: direct emitting green InGaN laser with 50 mW

OSRAM has set a new milestone for mobile laser projection

OSRAM Opto Semiconductors has achieved a major breakthrough in the laboratory with its direct emitting green indium-gallium-nitride laser. It already achieves an optical output of 50 mW and emits light in true green with a wavelength of 515 nm. Compared with semiconductor lasers based on current technology that operate with frequency doubling, direct emitting green lasers are more compact, offer greater temperature stability, are easier to control and have higher modulation capability.”

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Here’s the link to the Osram web site…

http://www.osram.com/osram_com/News/Trade_Press/LED_OptoSemiconductor/2009/090813_PM_R%26D_gruenerLaser_en.html

Over the last one year there have been several articles and white papers published indicating rapid improvement in the development of diode green lasers getting out of the lab approaching commercialization.

Today’s news from Corning confirms that…

Press Release
Source: Corning Incorporated
Monday November 1, 2010, 7:00 am EDT

CORNING, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW - News) today announced its results for the third quarter of 2010.

In the press release Corning stated…

“In other matters, Corning has decided to discontinue its development and commercialization of synthetic green lasers. Given the rapid development of native green technology, the company concluded that the market for synthetic green lasers is limited.”

*****

Here’s the link to the press release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Corning-Announced-bw-2268286162.html?x=0&.v=1

This piece of news further confirms that rapid progress has been made with diode green lasers. And Osram, for example, has overcome the previous limits of the InGaN material system. At the pre-development stage─ in August 2009, the company succeeded in manufacturing the first direct emitting green laser diode from the InGaN (indium-gallium-nitride) material system with a high optical output. The diode emits a “true green”, which is defined by the spectral range of 515 to 535 nm. In this range, efficient high-quality semiconductor lasers have been commercially available only as frequency-doubled versions. In the medium term, however, direct emitting green lasers could replace frequency-doubled lasers for numerous applications. They are easier to control, and also offer greater temperature stability, a smaller form factor and higher modulation capability at several 100 MHz.

Now we come to the last piece of the news that confirms the rapid development of diode green lasers… and that puts the commercialization of laser based PicoP projectors from Microvision on steroids for hyper growth in the year 2011.

Here we go…

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
Monday November 1, 2010, 7:00 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today announced it has successfully integrated the first “direct green” laser samples from two leading manufacturers into pico projector benchtop prototypes. This achievement represents an important first step toward the commercialization of PicoP® display engines using direct green lasers. The PicoP display engine utilizing a direct green laser is expected to offer significant commercial advantages in price, size, power, and performance.

“We are very pleased with the performance of these early direct green laser prototypes,” commented Sid Madhavan, Microvision vice president, R&D and Applications. “These encouraging results give us confidence that direct green laser diodes will be capable of meeting the performance requirements for integration into our PicoP display platform.”

Simplicity leads to lower costs
Microvision’s current pico projection engine uses red and blue laser diodes and a frequency-doubled “synthetic” green laser to create a full color image. Synthetic green lasers are infrared lasers that are manipulated to reduce their wavelength to produce a green light. This conversion process creates a complex system of multiple components held to tight tolerances making manufacturing more challenging.

Direct green lasers are capable of producing green light natively, greatly simplifying laser design and manufacturing processes. Direct green lasers are expected to be manufactured in a manner similar to red and blue lasers available today, facilitating lower cost and rapid scalability to commercial quantities. The combination of smaller size, lower power, and lower cost make direct green lasers an attractive alternative to synthetic green lasers for Microvision’s mobile display solutions.

Historically, availability of synthetic green lasers has been constrained due to their complexity and the existence of only two manufacturers. Today, there are at least five companies worldwide that have announced they are developing direct green lasers for late 2011 to mid 2012 commercial introduction. Industry researcher Yole Development forecasts that the direct green laser market size will reach about $500 million by 2016 and should represent more than 45 million devices.

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Here’s the link to the press release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Integrates-First-bw-2659567055.html?x=0&.v=1

Some would say that this press release from Microvision is damage control in view of Corning’s decision to discontinue its development and commercialization of synthetic green lasers.

But, I disagree… because of two simple reasons:

First: Corning has decided to discontinue development and commercialization of synthetic green lasers… but that doesn’t mean they will stop production of what’s on order and contracted with Microvision.

Second: Currently, SHG green laser diodes are available on the market from Corning, Osram and QD Laser… and each have their own proprietary solutions. Now if you take Corning out of the equation… you still have two other suppliers of SHG green lasers in the interim period from now to mid 2011.

The bottom line is…

“Next year, the commercialization of laser based PicoP projectors from Microvision gets into fast lane for hyper growth in the year 2011.”

We just have to wait and see how things unfold from here?

Anant Goel

Microvision: Apple─ The Media Player OEM?

At the Microvision shareholder’s meeting on September 15th, 2009, there were some questions asked about OEM relationship with Apple.

My take on CEO Alex Tokman’s answer was something like: “Apple World loves us and we have to be ready… I just ask you that you be patient.” In all probability, Microvision was in talks with “Apple”, however, there wasn't enough unit volume of PicoP Display Engines for Apple’s appetite at that time to be engaged officially.

Fast forward to today, last day of August 2010…

A year later, you may want to re-visit the questions about Apple in light of Microvision’s $11.1 million order from a [non-disclosed] Media Player OEM for the embedded PDEs…

• $11.1 million in initial order is not a small order by any means… because after the initial order, all of Microvision production could go to this OEM on a monthly basis. And these monthly orders represent about $12 million per Qtr [20,000pm x 3m x $200per unit = $12 million] in the first half of 2011… and increasing.

• With 5 Green Laser suppliers, the unit production can easily be ramped –up to 100,000 units per month… and that’s a decent production run for any Premium Media Player OEM like Apple or NetFlix.

• With diode GL coming into play some time in 2011, number of units can only go higher than the 100,000 per month… and that’s not shabby at all.

• Since announcing the Media Player OEM early this year, Microvision has been very tight lipped about the identity of this OEM… which is a typical modus of operands for any of the Apple suppliers. A small time OEM would probably follow the example of rest of the OEM flock in the CE industry─ where it is a common practice to earn some free publicity by announcing new products in the pipe line.

• CEO of Microvision has, on more than one occasion, stated publicly that the Media Player OEM would announce the product on its own time schedule before the 2010 Christmas shopping season. Well, early September is a good time to announce new products for the 2010 seasonal shopping… don’t you think? Apple will be making product announcements on September 1st … now that’s some coincidence!!!

• On March 8th, 2010, Microvision announced two new members of the management team: Joe O'Sullivan as Vice President of Global Operations and Michael Fritts as Vice President of Global Sales, Marketing, and Business Development.

Mr. O'Sullivan is a consumer electronics industry veteran with executive management experience at Apple Computer and InFocus. At Apple, Mr. O'Sullivan spent 15 years in operations and supply chain management, including Vice President of Operations where he was instrumental in building a global operations infrastructure in Asia. In addition, he developed Apple's International Procurement Organization strategy, building a structure in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Europe.

Today, a day before Apple’s new product introduction on September 1st , we hear this rumor about: “New iPod May Include Projector”.  Could it be Microvision’s laser based PicoP projector inside the Apple’s new premium iPod?

We just have to wait and see.

Here’s the link to the rumor news…
http://www.benzinga.com/company-news/contracts/10/08/450653/new-ipod-may-include-projector-mvis-aapl

While we wait, let’s look at Apple’s secret to success…

“Show and Sell”

All the while the competition…

"Flashes an exotic prototype, then – Presto! – get consumers to buy their more boring stuff. That kind of thinking still rules at most electronics companies. Apple under Steve Jobs only shows off actual products. And that difference is Apple’s arcane secret to success."

Like washed-up Catskill magicians unable to let go of old routines while a brash upstart steals their audience, nearly every maker of consumer electronics in the world clings to a quaint song-and-dance about prototypes.

“Here is your possible future,” they bark, flourishing the latest conceptual product from the lab. “Now watch us make it disappear!”

Apple’s chief magician, however, knows better, pulling solid objects out of the ether; products you can actually buy.

No one can be sure until the rumors lead the way to actual news in the media or corporate announcements.

But if you think it is possible, than rest assure it can happen someday.

If this sounds like a minor complaint about most of the industry’s lack of imagination in marketing, you’re misunderstanding the whole act. The fact that Apple does not reveal prototypes but shipping products; is the fundamental difference between their entire business strategy and that of the rest of the CE industry. It evokes a feeling of trust between Apple and consumers – that when Apple actually reveals a product, it’s something that they’re confident enough to support for years to come.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Investors Are Just Frustrated

Definition of “Frustration”…

• The act of frustrating or an instance of being frustrated
• The state of being frustrated
• Something that serves to frustrate

Let's add one more definition to the word frustration...

“waiting for definitive plans and answers to simple question from Microvision while being told that the management will disclose them soon by the next CC… or some other future event that has come and gone by the way side over the last 4 years.”

How dare we worry about where our investment dollars are going when it's such a small part of the big picture of: “the holly grail of embedded PicoP projectors in the billion unit mobile world?” What frustrates us now is another article about the Green Laser price and availability. It sounded like yet another warning, by those in the industry, why a laser based PicoP will fail because of Green Laser pricing issues. I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the issue, but can somebody please throw some light on this 4 year old issue of GL availability, pricing and stability issues as they affect the profit margins and eventual success of laser based PicoP projectors.

Here’re some more thoughts on frustration…

• Having the wool pulled over our eyes is frustrating;
• Lack of communications in spoken English is frustrating;
• Waiting for straight answers is frustrating;
• Having legitimate concerns brushed aside is frustrating;
• Being told to take the pain and ignore the small stuff is frustrating;
• Watching the market price of MVIS drift lower and lower is frustrating, too.

There is enough dry powder on the sidelines to send this market [and MVIS stock price] significantly higher, even into the plus column for the year. But, would-be buyers continue to be stymied as each day brings more questions rather than answers and we keep hearing how off base our concerns are. While panic has become the permanent aroma that greets investors each day, I sense frustration could be moving the market more than any other feeling these days, and certainly over the last few days.

I'm getting emails and phone calls and I know that many folks just want to throw in the towel out of frustration and a lack of confidence. Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be just fine and at the end of the day [in mid 2011] Microvision investor will come out whole.

If you are wondering “why mid 2011”…

Here’s what I have finally figured out…

• Currently, the quantities of synthetic green lasers and the ASICs are too small─ like 5,000 to 10,000 units per month, and the cost is relatively too expensive… thus the negative profit margins. The key word is “relatively”… meaning product cost [in such small quantities] is more than the transfer price that can be charged to the OEMs at a suggested retail price of $549.

• To put it another way; if the retail price was increased to $649 and the transfer price charged to OEMs also raised by say $60… than the relative cost of product─ at such small quantities, may NOT be, relatively speaking, too expensive… thus the potential for positive profit margins.

However, the recent drop of $100 in the retail price of SHOWwx [from $549 to $449] mucks the waters yet again and that is frustrating. Does this mean that the price of synthetic green lasers has come down significantly to a point where Microvision can charge less for SHOWwx and still make some profit? Well, that is one thought… as in one side of the coin so to speak.

The other side of the coin could be; that Microvision needs to clear old stock at a loss in anticipation of second generation PDEs that are expected to be cheaper, smaller, more energy efficient and with higher 15- lumen brightness and 720P HD resolution.

We don’t know for sure one way or the other… and that is frustrating.

The current debate between synthetic green lasers versus the diode [direct] green lasers got so confusing at the 2nd Qtr earnings CC that Microvision CEO responded with a Blog post at The Displayground to clear-up the matter.

Here’s the link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1761#comments

Green Laser Diodes Are On the Way, In the Meantime If Done Right Synthetic Green Lasers Have an Embedded Play

What I find very interesting is the comment about…

“We have already begun to see availability of the first generation synthetic lasers increase. The next generation synthetic green lasers are expected to be more efficient and less expensive than their first generation cousins. We also anticipate that the direct green lasers targeted for introduction in the second half of next year may not reach desired performance and cost targets immediately. For these reasons, we believe that synthetic lasers could continue to remain a competitive alternative to direct green lasers for at least the first 4-5 years after diodes are introduced.”

From the CEO comments about synthetic lasers, it is now clear that they have 4-5 years as the economic life cycle… before the diode green laser mature and become cost competitive. Considering the potential volume sales of laser based pico projectors over the next 5 years, which could easily run into 200-300 million units, there’s enough incentive for the synthetic green laser manufactures to ramp-up production with corresponding drop in prices.

I see two opportunities for cost reduction, and a very strong possibility of profitable margins, in the near future…

• Next generation green lasers and ASICs should be coming out in the next three or four months and they are more efficient and less expensive… and that bodes well for positive margins.

• A significantly large order from an OEM, in the 50,000 to 100,000 units per month range, will not only motivate the synthetic Green Laser suppliers, Corning and Osram, to crank-up the production lines… but it will also help reach the critical volume in terms of quantities that would result in some dramatic price drop.

With next generation synthetic Green Laser supply continuing to improve over the rest of year 2010, it is just the matter of time that a visionary company like Apple will come waltzing down the aisle to embed Microvision’s PDEs in their smartphones, iPads or iPods etc. If it is not Apple or NetFlix initially, it will be someone else… you can bet on that.

It may not be quite apparent to the naked eye; but with a little diligence the negative profit margins issue is just a short term anomaly that should correct itself in the next three to four months.

In the meantime, we are just frustrated!

Anant Goel

Microvision: One More Purchase Order in Next Two Weeks?

First, the good news…

Microvision Completes Design of New PicoP Laser Display Engine for Mobile Embedded Applications

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday March 29, 2010, 7:29 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has completed the design and begun shipping initial evaluation samples to several prospective customers of its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine.

Continues…

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Here’s the link…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Completes-Design-bw-3543654902.html?x=0&.v=1

Then, the exciting news…

Microvision Receives $8.5 Million Purchase Order for New PicoP Laser Projection Display Engine

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday April 5, 2010, 7:06 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has received an $8.5 million purchase order for its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine from a consumer electronics customer. The OEM plans to embed the PicoP engine inside a high-end mobile media player for release in late 2010 and plans to announce its launch at that time.

Continues…

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Here’s the link…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Receives-85-bw-2670010777.html?x=0&.v=1

Now for some projections [pun intended] into the future…

There are four areas that I would like to focus on…

1. SHOWwx was just the beginning of things to come

2. Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology

3. More Purchase Order to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production.

4. Case for brighter [like 20 lumens] PicoP Display Engines for the embedded version.

SHOWwx Just the Beginning of Things to Come:
On March 24th, Microvision started selling its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx to the US market… selling them directly; from its on-line web store for a handsome profit. When you sell directly; your margins are always better because of the savings in middleman’s commission. By the next earnings conference call; we would find out for sure what sales revenue and profit margins are from on-line sale of SHOWwx.

On April 5th, Microvision confirmed the receipt of a purchase order for $8.5 million dollars for its ultra miniature PDE… and that is the part that confirms my view that SHOWwx and the $8.5 million purchase order is the just the beginning of things to come.

Here’s why…
Potential markets for laser based PicoP Display Engine technology is not only huge… but it is also a high margin market opportunity. If you were to consider the high-end Media Player market alone… the possibilities are enormous…

Low Power Front Projection Media Players for the Third World Countries:

Think about 2.5 billion people in India and China... as they represent the potential buyers of a low power front projection portable TV/Media Player that offers a large screen [40'' to 100''] high definition always in focus vivid and bright color viewing experience. Extremely low ENERGY consumption [like 10 watts or less] and portability is the key market demand factor here. Energy will become more and more scarce and expensive by leaps and bounds…whereas the portability allows for sharing of resources among friends and family.

Low Power Front Projection Media Player for the Master Bedroom:

Think about a billion bedrooms globally that could use a ceiling projector... for adding another dimension to the various ways of media consumption for information and entertainment. We have desired the bedroom viewing of television for ever, so it seems, and some of us may have installed televisions in the bedroom. However, now it is possible to add, by the millions, a low power media player with built-in PicoP projector in our bedrooms… that offers short throw ratio, wide screen, high definition, bright and vivid color, and always in focus viewing experience. Media player/projector runs on low power batteries... so no risk of electrocuting yourself. No significant heat... so you won't burn yourself. No heavy duty TV to install on the bedroom wall.

Low Power Portable Projection Media Player for Every Bedroom in the House:

All you need is one portable Media Player with built-in PicoP projector… that gets moved around from room to room when and where it’s needed. It certainly is a cheaper alternative than buying a TV for each room of the house. This portable Media Player can also be the one you pack with your bags… when you are on the go.

Market Size for Portable Media Players with built-in PicoP Projectors is huge… like in billions world-wide. The most recent order for $8.5 million from the Consumer Electronic Company is just the beginning of what’s to come and not the end.

Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology:
Some have questioned the laser PicoP as “core” technology [like CPUs from Intel] vs. “commodity” technology [like cell phone touch screen and cameras].

My take on the subject is as follows...

Picop [the generic version] is an enabling technology and therefore a commodity... no question about that.

However, laser PicoP is a core technology and that's how it is being positioned by Microvision. Picop technology from TI or 3M will not create [or capture] as large a market as laser PicoP would... due to inherent image quality and functionality only possible due to lasers being used as the light source.

Microvision laser PicoP technology will capture its fair share of the captive markets but it would go-on-further and create markets that are only possible because of laser PicoP. And that's not the commodity markets by any means. Microvision recognizes that right from the beginning; and therefore is positioning the PicoP Display Engines accordingly… by using the “Image by PicoP” insignia on every thing related to its technology.

There will be others with laser picop technology down the road... and that's why Microvision is churning out these patents by the dozens… to protect its IP turf. Also, the "Image by PicoP" is part of this marketing strategy that positions Microvision PicoP technology as a "core" and not "commodity" right from day one. From what I have seen, and there is plenty of evidence for you to see as well, Microvision is charging a premium price for its PicoP technology. Just look at SHOWwx Limited Edition sold at $999 and the Commercial Edition currently for sale at $549.

I hope you can appreciate the difference... because it’s worth billions of dollars when it is executed with knowledge, passion, and gumption.

More Purchase Orders to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production:
If there was another Purchase Order next week, would that convince you that Osram and Corning are ramping-up production of their green lasers faster than expected?

Here’s what I’m thinking…

Many OEMs have sampled the first version PEKs from last year. Now the second generation PEKs, for embedded applications, are going out and dramatically improve upon what has been tested before! I believe that the embedded version of the PicoP Display Engine is brighter [over 20 lumens], smaller and consumes less energy.

In other words, time to market for these OEMs has collapsed to a point that few more may be interested in bringing PicoP embedded digital devices to the market for the coming Christmas season. I don’t think the Japanese and Koreans are going to let APPLE hog all the discretionary income of the America consumer for the iPad.

The case for brighter PicoP Display Engine for Embedded Application…
Corning has been slow to ramp-up due to improvements in their SHG green laser technology… that is the switch from “wave guided SHG laser” to “SIDM-based adaptive optics SHG laser” technology. I remember, from a year ago in a conversation with the Corning Product Manager, that G-2000 green laser would incorporate enhancements leading to brighter pictures… with a target goal of 20 lumens or better.

Here’re some links…

Corning G-1000 laser design [at 10 lumens with 10:1 contrast ratio] and the SIDM-based adaptive optics technology…
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=14329

Corning G-2000 laser pumps more lumens [like 23 lumens] at a reduced contrast ratio of 3:1 …
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=12733

Corning licked its waveguided SHG laser production issues last year by switching over to SIDM-based adaptive optics technology.

This year, Corning is the wild card with its contrast optimized green laser at 23 lumens.

Microvision future is bright and is getting brighter every day… just like its laser PicoP Display Engine.

Higher stock valuation will come in time… just like the HD resolution on its PicoP projection images.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Initial Reviews of Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx

On March 24th, Microvision launched its first laser PicoP projector SHOWwx for sale from its on-line store…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

Sales of this DVD quality and focus free laser projector have been quite brisk without any visible signs of advertising or promotional effort… indicating a broad based demand; from those that are aware of this pico projection as the emerging new technology that seems to have arrived in full bloom this spring.

I received my Limited Edition SHOWwx a few days ago and shared the pico projection experience with my friends, family and some total strangers.

Here’s my personal experience with Limited Edition SHOWwx…

The packaging is First Class, including a solid high quality 12x16" shiny black box that says "Image by PicoP" in silver letters. All the accessories are in their own quality boxes and they all rest on black grass like packing material. It also includes a Limited Edition SHOWwx Laser Pico Projector Certificate of Authenticity signed by Alexander Tokman… the CEO of Microvision. I was very impressed as to the very upscale quality of the packaging. It tells me that Microvision is a quality company with a quality product included in the box.

The metallic blue color SHOWwx was nicely packed compactly in its own compartment. A chrome plated insignia “SHOWwx Limited Edition” graced on the top half of the laser projector. I quickly read thru the few pages of instructions and safety manual to familiarize with the fine nuances of this feather weight machine that boasts of up to 100” projection display under certain ambient light conditions.

I inserted the battery in the SHOWwx as instructed in the manual and charged the battery for a few hours till the orange light turned green. When I first turned it on, it displayed my name in the lower right hand corner which was pretty cool. I walked around the house projecting various size images up and down the ceiling to walls to the hard wood floor. What an experience… feeling like a kid in the candy store! The highlight of this experience culminated in the fairly dark entertainment center in my finished basement.

Over 100” vivid color and focused image on the white wall just had one response from my 10 year old son… WOW!

One of the main usages that I had planned for SHOWwx was to watch streaming sports and You Tube videos. But, I still have not yet figured out how to enable the external monitor/projector on my HP Pavilion laptop. I tried the FN+F5 key combination the laptop instructions recommended; but that didn't work so I'll keep working on that.

The next thing I wanted to use SHOWwx was to hook it up to my portable DVD player and watch big screen movies in the entertainment center of the basement. Since my portable DVD player has 9" screen, it handles and travels well but I wanted a bigger screen to watch the movies. Surprisingly, even though SHOWwx comes with 4 different cables the one I needed was not included. So, I had to buy the proper male to male RCA video cable for $5 at the local Radio Shack

I hooked it up to my portable DVD player and found I had to press a switch that made my DVD screen go dark but produced a picture on the SHOWwx. The colors were bright and vivid and there were no green lines on the top or bottom of the screen when playing “Star Wars” on the DVD. The picture is certainly brighter when the screen size is 40” diagonal… but is still very sharp at 80” diagonal. Like most projectors the SHOWwx works best in a dimly lit or dark room… just like in a theater. The battery charge was good enough to last over 110 minute… before I had to go looking for the spare that came with the Limited Edition SHOWwx.

Paul Anderson did a very nice experiment with the SHOWwx battery run time that you should take a few minutes to look at…
http://mvisblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/my-showwx-experiment.html

Overall, I think it works great and the unit is so light you could easily carry it in a shirt pocket although mine came with a nice heavy duty carrying case with an "X" (for SHOWwx) on it that easily clips-on to your belt.

The only obvious improvement I would recommend; is to include an on-board SD memory card… for downloading and using digital content without having to attach SHOWwx to a host device.

With my personal experience set aside…

Initial reviews of SHOWwx and its projection image quality are coming-in from the first adopter users of the Limited Edition and the Commercial Edition product that was just recently shipped over the last few days.

If you are willing to accept the good with the bad, here’s a collection from a diverse group of people that have had a chance to look at the SHOWwx image projection in real life setting:

• “Tremendous product! This pico projection communicates the giddy excitement that awaits those who see and play with the PicoP for the first time. Such a bright, clear, colorful image from such a tiny device is hard to accept at first, as it contradicts one's prior experiences. Those guys were getting happy feet just like I did the first time I saw the PicoP in action. Microvision technology is going to OWN the high quality end of these emerging product categories.”

• “The projected image is from iPod Touch that has a resolution of 483 by 320 pixels. SHOWwx has a resolution of 848 by 480 pixels. If you liked the image at 483x320 pixels [iPod Touch] just imagine how awesome the image would look at 848x480 pixels.”

• “Even at the $549 launch price this product is amazing value and I for one will probably be buying several.”

• "...the amazing thing about this projector, it's not a shitty DLP or LCD based light engine... it's a scanning LASER!!!"

• "Because it's a beam of light from lasers it's always in focus, incredibly bright and the lasers have an immense lifetime..."

• "The Microvision laser projector seriously impresses me (and come on, you know how cynical I am!) but I'm not at all excited by those little DLP projectors that are just hitting the market... they are built on an old technology that isn't translating to the mobile world very well at all..."

• I have seen the videos of this product image. What I notice is so much better image quality in real life. It's worth mentioning a few facts:

1. Due to the slight difference between the refresh rate of video camera and the laser scan lines on the Microvision projector; the video image appears to flicker… which does not happen in "real life" and is a side-effect of recording projected image with a camera.

2. Most digital cameras don’t handle the low ambient light recording well and therefore don’t do the SHOWwx pico projector any favors... but the video images still look amazing!

• “Needless to say, I absolutely LOVE this product."

• "Yeah - Dad's mad about this, but I have to admit the demo was excellent. No focusing and a massive clear image created from a handset-sized device. Imagine sharing your images at a party on a wall...”

• “This unit outperforms the comparable Optoma unit and the actual projector is about 2/3rd of the size of an iPhone."

• “Those guys were stunned. I love to see the reaction of tech junkies like me.”

• “Just get me some big fat orders and I'll be happy.”… Obviously from someone who desperately wants to work for Microvision in the sales department.

• “You might mention that the flickering on the screen doesn't show when you're using the projector live. And yeah, I want one . . .”.

• “It is almost laughable now how the "green laser supply" issue has been blown out of all proportions by so many others. A serious public company with serious business doesn't require reading a bunch of tea leafs or put out a bunch of rumor fodder.”

• “Go back and look at all the posts for the last 8 years about how many "this is it" posts on a tea leaf reading have been pronounced and how many have come true?”

• “He could have been referring to a couple of large corporations with sales forces that have inquired about purchasing a number of units when available. However, I think they would want on-board memory so they can load-up a presentation without a second device hooked-up.”

• “Looks a lot better than the Pico Pocket Projector I reviewed a couple of months ago. Looking forward to buying SHOWwx with on-board memory in the near future!”

• “Brilliant! The fact that it's non-focus is the best part.”

• “… I think the SHOWWX is fantastic and everyone will want one when they find out about it.”

So there you have it, comments from those enamored with PicoP… those with inquisitive minds… and those who are skeptics.

Be careful with what you wish for!

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential

I have always believed investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift; with an eye on the long term growth prospects of the company.

In the last 30 odd years that I have been investing, I have had my share of good fortune and misfortune. However, what’s important is the fact that I managed to secure my financial future and live today to talk about my strategy of investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift. Some of these companies─ like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, and Cisco─ have grown to be huge enterprises and have made their early investors over 10,000% or more since their inception.

A while back I wrote a post about my 14,000% profit experience with Intel during its growth phase from early 80’s to the end of Dot.com era in the year 2000. Here’s the link to that post…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/intel-i-made-over-14000-profit-since.html

I’m one of those old timers that invested in Intel during its early days as a company… in the early 80’s. I recall buying some shares for a total cost of $1,000 dollars. I had to liquidate all my position in Intel during the Dot Com bust of 2000… around May of that year. However, it was not all that bad, because I managed to sell pretty close to the all time high and I remember bragging about my good fortune and fortitude to have stayed the course to make over 14,000% profit… for a net gain of over $140,000 dollars including dividends and the stock splits.

The past performers in my portfolio have served well. However, these companies like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, Cisco, and Microsoft are past their hyper growth phase and are now too big and are just slow earnings growth vehicles. No disrespect to these fine companies… it’s just that they don’t fit the “hyper growth” company model any more.

One of my stocks holding now, besides an options income portfolio, is Microvision. I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.

Here’s why…

On Wall Street, you often hear terms like “top dog” or “first mover” in the context of a growth stock presentation to institutional clients. It’s quite interesting really…

A "top dog" is a company that dominates its industry... and a "first mover" is a company with a technology or product so revolutionary that it disrupts an existing industry and creates an entirely new one.

On the rare occasion that you find a company that is both─ both a top dog and a first mover ─ the chances are pretty good that you've found your next big winner...

Just think of eBay in the online auction market... Amazon in the online retail market... Netflix in the DVD-rental market… and Cisco in the router market… etc.

These companies redefined the way business was done, launched entirely new industries, and continue to dominate those industries to this day. And you don't need me to tell you how handsomely they've rewarded shareholders along the way.

In order to find companies that will deliver truly life-changing investment returns, you have to find growth companies early in their life cycle and truly believe that they are indeed the ones to ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift… with potential of sustained long term growth.

Before we talk about Microvision as the growth company of the future with a 50,000% profit potential, let’s first consider…

Is now really a good time to be buying growth stocks?

The fact is; it takes guts to make money in this market.

But here's some good news…

For one thing, our current economic conditions bear a striking similarity to the economic downturn of the early 1990s. And Morningstar reports that during that recession, “growth” stocks more than doubled the return of "value" stocks.

For another thing, "growth” stocks can excel even if the broad market continues to stumble. In fact, the analysts expect better profit prospects for growth stocks than for value stocks.

Money for nothing...
We have to be realistic in our expectations when searching or investing in growth companies. The purpose of looking at the great companies listed above is not to show that growth investing is an all-win situation. Far from it!

The purpose of the illustration is to demonstrate how well great companies perform over a long period. If you can identify just one great company early, and then hold on for the long term, you can do pretty well for yourself.

Growth investing is highly volatile, and it will fray the nerves of those individuals with a low risk tolerance. Having said that, all investors should devote a portion of their portfolios to growth stocks. For those traveling in the fast lane, an allocation of 30% of their portfolios might make sense. More conservative types should allocate at least 10% in order to provide a little juice for their investments. I'm somewhere in between, so I devote about 20% of my portfolio to growth.

Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential

I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.

In order to become a very successful, profitable and huge company [in terms of market capitalization] you need the following pre-requisites:

Management: with expertise, vision, support network, past record, communicative and persuasive skills and a will to succeed.

In my opinion, we have the best possible management with all the pre-requisite attributes necessary for managing Microvision at this stage of the company’s growth. Here’s a link for your review…

http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/team.html

Financially Sound: with money to support on-going operations, R&D expenditures, product development and commercialization.

According to the latest annual report for period ending December 2009, Microvision had $45.7 million in cash and short term cash instruments. Looking at the financials, the company is burning about $11 million per Qtr. At this rate, the company has about 4 Qtr worth of cash… assuming no additional revenue from product sales or contract payments.

Since we already have a SHOWwx product lunched in the US, Europe and the Asia Pacific region… I would venture to say that most R&D expenses have already been incurred [almost $300 million to date] and net profit from sales could reduce the cash burn by 3-4 million dollars per Qtr. That would stretch the available cash reserves to 7 Qtr or so. It’s ironic, but the investors of the past have funded this massive R&D undertaking to-date. However, the current investors will reap the benefits and are assured the company has cash to fund the on-going operations, product development and embedded PDEs commercialization.

Here’re some links…
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1400178&highlight=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=MVIS

Disruptive Technology: that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.

Microvision’s core technology [PicoP Display Engine] is weaved into five product offerings and each of the product line has the potential of generating billions in revenue:

Vehicle Displays: for automobiles.
http://www.microvision.com/vehicle_displays/index.html

Wearable Displays: a see-through, high-resolution display platform that enables lightweight and fashionable eyewear displays for mobile devices. Microvision’s Color Eyewear platform allows mobile users to access their personal content and services while keeping their vision of the outside world free and clear, letting mobile users stay on the move.

http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/mobile.html

Pico Projector Displays: brings big screens to small devices. The Pico Projector or “PicoP Display Engine” can be embedded in mobile phones, laptop or similarly-sized mobile devices to enable upto 100” full color projection display [with DVD resolution] for applications such as streaming video, digital TV, high resolution photographs, and surfing the net.

Standalone Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/standalone.html

Embedded Unit:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/embedded.html

Applications Gallery:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html

Military Displays: are used across various branches of the U.S. Military including the U.S. Army, and U.S. Army Reserve.
http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/military.html

Laser Bar Code Scanner: features a patent-pending, low-cost, shock-resistant, mechanical/magnetic laser scan engine.
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/index.html

Competitive Advantage: Microvision has over 115 U.S. Patents issued and 79 Patents pending to protect its intellectual property… giving it a huge competitive edge.

http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/index.html

Technologically Feasible: Microvision has five different products in its portfolio. Each product has been demonstrated to be technologically feasible… with some being offered commercially.

PicoP Display Engine technology is based on the proven and mature silicon MEMS laser scanning mirror technology… as demonstrated by their commercially marketed “ROV” bar code scanner system.

http://www.microvision.com/technology/index.html
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/rov.html

The company recently launched the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010.

http://www.microvision.com/showwx/

Microvision has teamed-up with Asia Optical, a global leader in optical component solutions and contract manufacturing, speaks highly of the technological feasibility of the PicoP product. This collaboration focuses on leveraging Asia Optical experience in high-volume design and manufacturing to create a compact, manufacture able and affordable PicoP Display Engine product for Microvision customers. Ultimately, it is expected that PicoP Display Engine will be incorporated into a variety of applications and products in the automotive and mobile consumer electronic products.

The development agreement with Vodafone and Motorola is big for the following reasons…

The deal with the top tier cell-phone companies [Vodafone and Motorola] validates the Microvision technology and its business model.

The deal with Vodafone and Motorola are not exclusive [at this stage] and possibly is the beginning of a relationship that can easily grow into these companies taking equity interest in MVIS… or a possible buyout in the future. As the company [MVIS] has indicated, they are talking to several other large mobile phone and consumer electronics firms.

The top tier cell-phone companies [like Vodafone and Motorola] see value in announcing the relationship with Microvision at this stage of the product development… meaning that the product is within the spec for an embedded device for the cell-phones… and on schedule for early introduction in 2011.

Microvision launched the standalone PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010 and is on schedule to deliver the embedded unit for commercial production in early 2011.

Market Size: The market for PicoP Display Engine is huge. The potential markets are automobiles, mobile phones, smartphones, laptops, PDAs, iPods, iPhones, Pads, digital cameras, camcorders, personal mobile TVs, and the fashion eyewear.

Here are some world-wide statistics...
New autos: sales for 2007 … 49 million units
http://www.metrics2.com/blog/2006/12/28/world_auto_sales_flat_in_2007_china_becomes_no3_re.html

New Mobile Phone Sales: for 2007… 1.15 billion units
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/item/?ci=29702

New Laptop Sales: for 2007 … 207 million units
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,132861-pg,1/article.html

New “PDA’s, iPods, iPhones, Digital Cameras and Camcorders”… over 300 million units

New Eyewear Sale: for 2008… 1 billion units

Personal Mobile TV/Projectors… new market opens up with potential 1 billion units
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html

Technology and Business Partnerships: Microvision has partnered with the biggest [financially], the most respected [for over 100 years] and the best in the business to design and manufacture its PicoP Display Engine for the automotive and consumer electronic markets.

Now what we need is a few more commercial business partners and OEM agreements for the PicoP Display Engine and Wearable Display product line. I am sure it will happen soon and when it does happen the MVIS stock will run up the charts as we have never seen before.

Microvision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…

When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.

Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?

When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.

So what’s Microvision’s “killer app”?

It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.

What makes Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine technology as "Killer app" in simple terms?

1. Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.

2. Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.

3. Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.

4. Large projected images [up to 100”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.

5. High resolution image [848x480] at 10 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 20 lumens or more brightness.

6. Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology matures and economies of scale are achieved.

7. Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next.

The PicoP Display Engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to Microvision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PDE to the rest of Microvision product line of applications that are currently under development.

Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisors compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!

Well, Microvision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your Microvision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.

But that will change in the next Qtr when the earnings report will show increasing sales of SHOWwx projector from the US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.

When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in Microvision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 5 years.

Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range.

Here’s an educated projection…

• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]

• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]

• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units

• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units

• OEM price: $90 per PicoP Display Engine

• Revenue: $4 billion

• Net Profit Margin: 40%

• Net Profit: $1.6 billion

• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]

• Interest Expense: $0 million

• Interest Income: $20 million

• Tax: $220million

• Depreciation: non cash and very small

• Amortization: non cash and very small

• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion

• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]

• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company

• Price Per Share: $390 per share

In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Breakeven Expected at the End of 1st Qtr 2011

For the first time in a long time I’m very confident that Microvision could have the breakeven operation by the end of 1st Qtr of 2011. And that’s much earlier than that projected by Oppenheimer in their recent report update of February 2010.

I have followed this company for nearly 12 years... but did not start investing in it until 2007, because they did not have a plan for building revenue until they brought on Alex Tokman. Microvision had all the symptoms of being an interesting science project with very little else to do with monetizing the technology… but all that changed after the 2006 re-organization when Tokman was appointed as the CEO. Many of you would agree that he is not there to build a science experiment… he is there to build a solid business based on solid technology, wrapped up as tightly in IP as a 200+ patent portfolio would allow.

The reason I mention Oppenheimer report as the point of reference… because, it is perhaps the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis of Microvision’s business and financial model by an institutional analyst. Even though I don’t agree with their projections of Microvision revenues and profit margins, I don’t see any reason to pick a fight over numbers that none of us can be hundred percent sure… one way or the other.

One more thing…
Recently, someone suggested “brevity as a virtue”. So, from now on, unless I’m writing the next chapter to my book, I plan on presenting my findings, research, analysis and conclusions in this very virtuous manner... that is, as briefly as possible.

So, here we go...
There is confluence of evidence that Microvision has launched its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US market on March 8th, 2010. It is also evident that SHOWwx is being sold in the US; directly from Microvision website...

http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/index.html

Now, the next question is about profit margins, revenues and the timeline for operational “breakeven”... where the operating profits sustain the operating cost on a monthly basis.

Looking at all the available information─ the annual report, the latest earnings report and the Q&A from the most recent earnings conference call ─ my analysis shows the breakeven Qtr as Q1 of 2011.

Here’s why…

First Qtr of 2011

Total Revenue: $30.95 million

• Contract Revenue: $955,000… based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 15% per Qtr growth
• Product Revenue: $30,000,000… based on 60,000 SHOWwx sold in Q1, 2011 at $500 bundled price with VGA doc.

Cost of Revenue: $18.487 million

• Cost of Contract Revenue: $487,000
• Cost of Product Revenue: $18,000,000… COG at 60% [40% margins with green laser cost at $90 or less]. Assumes direct & affiliate on-line store sales.

Gross Profit: $12.469 million

Total Operating Expenses: $11.975 million

• Research & Development: $7.806 million… based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 1% growth.
• Sales, General & Admin: $4.169 million…based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 2% growth.
• Others: $0

Operating Income (Loss): $494,000

Net Income from Continuing Operations: $500,000

• Other Income/Expenses Net: $0
• Earnings before Interest & Taxes: $494,000
• Interest Income: $24,000
• Interest Expenses: $18,000

Income before Tax: $$500,000

Income Tax Expenses: $0

Minority Interest/Other Expenses: $0

Total Non Recurring Events: $0

• Discontinued Operations: $0
• Extraordinary Items: $0
• Effect of Accounting Changes: $0
• Other Items: $0

Net Income (Loss): $500,000

Net Income Applicable to Common: $500,000

Shares Outstanding: 90.136 million… includes 5 million share worth additional funding in August 2010 and the rest for stock options.

Earnings Per Share: $0.006

I am not going to attempt to persuade you; towards my way of thinking. However, I just feel that this is a very different point in time for Microvision, where a real product has been launched… and that will change the way information and entertainment is displayed in the mobile world. There are other companies that are getting these pico products out there... but, I see their product introduction to the market as the “teaser horses".  And as “Sam” from the Yahoo Message Board says…

“... if you know anything about horse breeding; you do not want to come back as a teaser horse.  Sure you get into the breeding shed, but even if the mare accepts the jump; poor Picho still loses out as he's fitted with a leather apron to ensure that his efforts, in advance of the waiting stud, remain chaste.”

Is Microvision the "stud" of the stable? 

Well, we just have to wait and see when we get our hands on that SHOWwx on order!

When all is said and done, in the end, I see Microvision’s laser PDEs to dominate pico projection technology… and I have seen nothing from any of the other companies that would dissuade me from this view.

Do the delays frustrate the heck out of me?
Yes!

Do I wish I had my own SHOWwx months ago to use in presentations...and gift them to my friends and family?
Yes!

As far as missed deadlines go, the biggest issue was Corning misguided judgment that they would have green lasers in quantity 2 years ago… a major failure in projecting the production timeline. I, for one did not drain my brain worrying about the exact definition of the end of summer launch in 2009. I have seen new product releases before and I am well aware that if there is a situation where Murphy's Law might apply… then the September 2009 launch was one of them.

I’m very encouraged that Corning has finally overcome the G-1000 green laser production issues… and the second generation G-2000 is coming along nicely for production in Q4 of 2010. I am also very encouraged that OSRAM is making good progress and has started shipping small quantities of green laser to Microvision. It will not surprise me at all, if Microvision were to announce the Osram shipping good news any day soon.

If Osram (and Corning) can overcome the last mile quality production hurdles, we will see validation in a cell phone… with product available in the market by early 2011. Frankly, I do not care who is or was first to market. I think we will see some announcements before the end of April/May this year to help support the stock price and perhaps even push up the pps to next level… in the $5 to $6 range.

Some of you may think that my analysis is somewhat pessimistic… while the others may consider it way too optimistic.  I can understand your rationale… because to this day, I still battle with my optimism and pessimism on a daily basis.

I would not say that the current stock pps is so great that it represents the exuberance of the year 2000… the Dot.com era. Nor does it represent the enthusiasm of a long waited product validation and launch. The current price, I believe, is based on a combination of facts that are still not very clear and people hedging bets that they will reap a significant reward by investing at lower levels. The volume has been up and I cannot detect any significant profit taking at this point. The MVIS story has substance in product and potential for the long term investors.

Obviously there are several companies that have committed to MVIS in the form of contracts to distribute the SHOWwx.  I would find it hard to believe that these companies would make such a commitment without some degree of due diligence in both the supply and demand equation. Without going into details, let me say that I do not think a price of $550 for SHOWwx is too much… although it is a lot.

Profit from the SHOWwx is a short term cash flow gig and has never been the driving factor for the company's long term goal. We all know that the embedded PicoP─ in all things digital─ is the “holy grail”. However, that thinking may be changing considering the fact that SHOWwx does have many may applications and once second generation green laser production is up and the cost goes down the SHOWwx could be very profitable… especially when it is sold directly from the company’s on-line store.

I strongly believe that Microvision could be on its way to breakeven operation… as early as at the end of Q1 of 2011.

Anant Goel
PS: Thanks to "Sam" from YMB for letting me use some of his words and quotes.

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Pico Projectors Hit the Commercial Market

That is the title of a trade journal article published by Electronics Weekly…

Pico projectors hit the commercial market
Richard Wilson
Tuesday 16 March 2010 11:18

Pico projectors are set for a massive jump in shipments during the next four years as they hit a number of commercial markets including mobile phones, according to analyst iSuppli.

Shipments will rise to more than three million units in 2013, up from less than 50,000 units in 2009.

In the middle of last year, Texas Instruments demonstrated 3D-ready projectors and lamp-free data projectors based on the company's DLP chip technology.

The chip uses an array of millions of micro-mirrors which can be switched at high speed, which enables the simultaneous display of left-eye and right-eye images required for the brain to create a 3D picture.

It is the rapid refresh rate of the DLP chip which supports 3D viewing.

According to TI, as many as 30 manufacturers will have projectors on the market soon, including BenQ, InFocus, LightSpeed, Mitsubishi, Optoma, Sharp and ViewSonic.

Continues…

*****

After reading this article, I could not help wonder if this was a trade journal article on the subject of pico projectors or an infomercial for Texas Instruments, Samsung, Mitsubishi and other advertisers of Electronics Weekly.

First, here’s the link to the article that I’m talking about…
http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/03/16/48208/pico-projectors-hit-the-commercial-market.htm

This article is so superficial in its coverage that it not only lacks depth but also the breadth in its coverage. What surprised me most were the many inaccuracies in the article and shockingly there was no mention of Microvision that launched the world’s first laser based PicoP™ projector SHOWwx in September of 2009… and most recently, on March 8th, Microvision started selling their laser based pico projector to the US customers.

Don’t you think it is shocking to see that the main author [Richard Wilson] and iSuppli projection analyst Sanju Khatri wrote this article about pico projectors but completely ignored the existence of Microvision and its laser pico projector SHOWwx? I’m sure you know, like the millions of Internet savvy global consumers do, that Microvision’s laser pico projector SHOWwx won the CES 2010 “Last Gadget Standing” award in January… and the MacWorld 2010 “Best of Show” award in February.

Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP Display Engine technology exists today and beats the competition from 3M [LED/LcoS technology] and TI [LED/DLP technology] in most all respects.

First take a look at quality of the projected images from SHOWwx and then look at its specifications… and you will see why Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP projector is so much better than the competition.

Here’s the link to SHOWwx video clip…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0

Here’s the side by side comparison with the competition…
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png

Here’s the list of differentiating features of SHOWwx…
http://www.microvision.com/showwx/specs.html

In the embedded market space, I don’t see any of the competitors coming close to Microvision in this race… not even Taxes Instruments with their power guzzling million-micromirrors based pico projector. The likes of 3M and Displaytech will never get down to acceptable levels of size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost requirements… as they will have the “gating issues”. Pico projectors that use million micromirrors or LcoS panels [with lenses and optics] just can’t cut the mustard in terms of physical size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost.

I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection space... like Displaytech with FLCOS, 3M with LcoS, and TI with DLP technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

Microvision’s laser PicoP Display Engine will lead the rat pack because of the following:

• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) in the standalone version will make the competition at par with Microvision’s SHOWwx... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine produces virtually zero heat due to lasers being used as the light source and also due to on/off switching of lasers during dark image segments. Competing pico projection technologies of others produce enough waste heat to cook eggs... sunny side up for sure.

• “A wide angle view means that Microvision’s PDE can show a wider screen at closer distance!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's PDE you get…

"A wider image [80 inch from 7 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus."

• Laser based PicoP Display Engines will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

• Microvision’s PDE has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based PicoP Display Engine do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.

• Microvision’s PDE can go from 12” to 200” diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.

• Microvision’s PDE projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.

• Microvision’ PDE projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.

• Microvision’s PDE has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.

• Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser [G-2000] from Corning.

After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…

"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."

Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/

Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx [and PDEs for embedded applications] with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On Monday March 8, 2010, 4:20 pm EST

Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010

Company Announces U.S. Introduction of SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector, Availability of Second Commercial Supply for Green Laser, New Purchase Orders, and Additions to Management Team

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2009 and its plans for 2010.

Continued…

*****

Here’s the link to the full earnings report…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100308006744&newsLang=en

Last three years, especially the year 2009, has been the most frustrating period for Microvision corporate management… mainly due to delays caused by over optimistic green laser production schedule by Corning. However, after 30 months of delay due to technical and production problems, the issues are finally behind us and Microvision has officially launched the world first laser based PicoP projector in the US today.

After the market close on March 8th, Microvision management presented the quarterly/yearly earnings report. After looking at the details of SHOWwx laser PicoP projector launch from this morning and then listing to earnings conference call, I could not help but feel that today is the day when Microvision really went public with an IPO.

Microvision: Goes Public with an IPO… March 8th 2010

Now that I have your attention, consider this…

If Microvision were to have an IPO right after the SHOWwx launch in the US today followed by a very bullish earnings conference call… the IPO price would be more like $20 if not higher.

We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.

Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, huge backlog, ramping-up production forecasts, improving margins, and glowing recognition by industry; like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.60.

Looks like the shorts have you all spooked, doubting yourself, and in knots over in-decision.

One of the issues, if you would call it that, the shorts will “harp on” and have you believe is about low future revenues and insignificant margins.

Well, let’s set the record straight here, shall we…

Many folks don’t realize that the green laser unit forecasts Alex presented at the CC; they do not include any green laser contribution from Osram. Osram green lasers have been validated but production quantities are not yet shipping in any significant quantities… and as such are not part of the unit number forecast presented at the conference call.

Osram green lasers are the surprise factor; both in terms of higher production volumes─ higher than what Alex has projected from Corning and dramatic overall cost reduction due to cheaper Osram green lasers.

The good news─ in the short term, that Alex talked about in his closing remarks, in my opinion, is all about Osram starting to ship production quantities of green lasers as early as the last week of March. Osram green lasers are much cheaper and have much better yields. That’s the surprise factor that Alex alluded to in his closing remarks at the CC.

Be aware of the competitors, shorts and unscrupulous stock traders; when they bash the SHOWwx revenue and profit margins to justify their agenda… whatever form or shape it takes.

Consider this…

• Profit margins on SHOWwx that have been shipped are better than what you may think [or are made to believe] by just looking at 4th Qtr “product sale revenue” vs. the “product COG” numbers. First, the initial batch of product shipped is very small… few hundreds at the most, and that is not a large enough sample to base future trends.

Second, the cost of about 50 or so demo units in the hands and homes of Microvision executives has cost but no revenue. That hurts the revenue numbers and skews the COG numbers as much higher than they really are.

• Profit margins and revenues will dramatically increase─ over and above what they truly are at present, as soon as Osram starts shipping their better and cheaper green lasers in production quantities… as early as the end of March.

• Profit margins are dramatically higher [over 300%] on the Limited Edition SHOWwx that are for sale in the US today.

• Profit margins are substantially higher [over 100%] on the Commercial Edition SHOWwx that will be for sale in the US on March 24th.

There is no better way to say it, than to say it as it really is…

“Alex Tokman, in his closing remarks at the CC, alluded to two pieces of good news coming up: one in the short term [like in weeks] and the other in the mid term."

The short term good news, in my opinion, is about Osram shipping production quantities of their green lasers to Microvision… and that will more than double the forecasted SHOWwx quantities that can be shipped at much better profit margins.

In closing…

Be aware of the competitors, shorts, manipulators, and the unscrupulous operators that would like you to believe that the future revenues and profit margins as insignificant… because, by having you believe that and then manipulate you to sell would serve their agenda to short Microvision.

So why don’t you guys just wake-up, believe in yourselves and stop playing into the hands of unscrupulous shorts.

Be an educated investor and go about making some serious money in the near future.

Stop playing for nickels and dimes… only kids do that with too much time on their hands.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Stock at the End of its Transition Phase

Every growth stock falls into 1 of 3 categories…

1. The Romance Phase

2. The Transition Phase

3. The Reality Phase

Most growth stocks tend to pass through three phases of growth… romance, transition and reality. By knowing which phase a stock is in, you can quickly determine whether the profits are just beginning… or the well is drying up fast. Needless to say, this can make the decision to buy, sell or hold significantly easier. And its decisions like these that will make or break your success in investing.

You may say that in case of Microvision, the romance is gone and the transition is at an end, and the reality of situation [green laser issue] has become clear. And in your opinion in this phase, the company’s entire financial future depends on the availability and the cost of green lasers. Since the company has made no effort to incorporate any other type of light source to power its PicoP Display Engine, the core of its entire product line, it is fair to say that Microvision will thrive or perish by the green laser sword.

Some of you have lived through the romance phase, which peaked in year 2000 with the MVIS stock trading well over $63… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology. Those that did not cash out after the romance phase, the most profitable phase, and are still holding the MVIS stock and they have battle scars to prove their passage through the three phases of growth in the life of a company. Now we are at the tail end of the transition phase, when blemishes appear and public’s perception of the company starts to diminish.

If you feel that we all have made a mistake in believing and staying too long in MVIS stock and are in the same boat at this point in time? We all have, for whatever the reason, stayed little too long in this stock and are now paying the price of dealing with uncertain future and muted enthusiasm of a product launch… that revolves around a core component from green laser supply chain! If that’s what you believe, and can think with a cool head and not point fingers, then continue reading, as I would like to share some facts, figures and analysis?

Microvision story is not over yet. It is, however, certainly the end of the romance phase and we are now successfully transitioning to the reality phase. If you dig deeper, you will find that it is just the beginning that is based on reality of Microvision’s financial and cost structure and will resume its momentum to renewed success based on improving availability and cheaper cost of green lasers… the Achilles heel to Microvision’s financial success. This may sound like a wish full conclusion to Microvision saga… but fortunately that happens to be the conclusion of my analysis based on findings of facts and figures.

So stay tuned and let’s continue with our analysis…

The Romance Phase: is the most profitable phase by far and is the one that you’ll want to focus on… that is, if you were lucky enough to be around during the early life stages of Microvision in year 2000. It’s in this phase that a fortune can be amassed very quickly, long before most investors are even aware that the company exists. Yet at some point, the stock’s price and its Relative Performance (RP) line will reach all-time highs. This tells you the Romance in the stock has peaked. This is when most analysts, if there are any following the stock, would recommend selling it. In case of MVIS stock, the first Romance peak took place in March of year 2000 when the stock traded in the $63 plus range.

The second Romance peak took place in June of 2007 when the management announced “Agreement with Motorola”. At the height of this Romance peak, the MVIS stock traded in the $6 range. It happened too quick [in less than two months] and the RP line indicated that it had not peaked and there was lot more momentum left for the stock to go still higher... to over $10 or so we believed. Also, the pico projector sector was just in initial stages of taking-off... as we know is happening right now. It took us a few months to realize the issues with SHG green laser technology and the resulting cost and supply constraints.

In hindsight, we may call it our greed that made us stay in this stock too long or may be it was our collective belief that there was more good news to come. How could it all start, take-off and crash in less than three months? Well, it did and the reasons are too well known to all of us so I won’t repeat them here.

The Transition Phase: can last from few months to several years. In case of Microvision, the Transition Phase started in September of 2007 when I first wrote about the technical issues that Corning was having with their SHG green lasers. This is when the blemishes appeared and the public’s perception of the stock started to diminish. It’s at this stage in the life of a company, like Microvision, that the company’s technology may fumble, the earnings may stumble [if there were any], the cash flow may turn negative [or cash burn may accelerate], the financing may disappear, the flaws in business growth strategy start showing-up in negative revenue growth [or as loss of revenue] and other issues start popping-up such as legal, financial, and key employee departures, etc.

Sooner or later the issues will get resolved and the company’s earnings will grow again… but only after the stock has bottomed and then, after an excruciating period, has started its next major advance.

Now we are at the tail end of the “Transition Phase”. During the Transition Phase, the blemishes [like technical problems with green lasers] appeared and public’s perception of the company diminished to such low levels as to bring the MVIS stock down to $0.80 in March 2009.

Many of the red-hot lovers who romanced MVIS on the way up have left the stock, and it's their selling pressures, driven by reduced perceptions, that have been pushing the MVIS stock down… and the bear market of 2008 hasn't helped, either. Every time a diehard long who had sworn to hold the stock forever gives up in disgust, the stock is pushed a little lower.

It's not the company's fault that Corning had repeatedly failed to deliver on the SHG green laser, a core component for making laser PicoP projectors. If the delay was reasonable, and not the 30 months, the MVIS stock would have traded rationally, based on earnings from a potentially gigantic global market. This stock would have been nowhere near as low as the 80 cents last March, and it would be certainly traded higher now than it currently is… at $2.69 and excruciating to hold it at this level.

But stock prices are determined by investors. And investors are people. People who fall-in and fall-out of love! People who buy with visions of profits and sell in disgust when their dreams are dashed! People who drive stocks to irrational heights and then sell them to irrational depths! That's what makes investing a challenge ... and very profitable, if you know what you're doing.

The Reality Phase: With Romance gone and the transition at end, the reality of the situation has become clear. In this final phase, the Reality Phase, the company could have taken one of the two roads… the road to renewed success… or the road to oblivion.

Microvision has struggled for over the last 30 months to deal with the core component─ green laser─ supply issue during the Transition Phase. All through this phase, Microvision managed to stay funded and fully staffed to aggressively pursue product development and continue with research to enlarge its intellectual property rights.

Finally, Corning has resolved its green laser yield issues and is now ramping production. Osram is coming on-line rapidly to become the second source of SHG green lasers… with a better, cheaper and higher yielding product. During the Transition Phase, Microvision management made some hard decisions to control cost, proactively raise funding─ even though it was considered unpopular with the investors, and aggressively pursued R&D to enlarge its IP portfolio and took measures to protect its intellectual property.

Over this last cycle, in my opinion, the MVIS stock price has bottomed at $1.96. The Transition Phase is over and the Reality Phase has kicked-in, or it will on March 8th after the earnings conference call.

It’s then; when analysis of the stock should become a little easier for investors who base their decisions on fundamentals. If the company's sales and earnings are growing, as I expect them to do very rapidly, the stock will rise, too. But it will do it in a far more rational manner, reflecting the reality of the company's sales and earnings growth potential over the next few years.

Before I leave you, consider this…

We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “Validation Phase”. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders─ from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator, represent …

• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.

• Validation of Corning green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.

• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size, always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications, and no waste heat generation.

• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.

• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.

• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments… and the waste heat, hot enough to cook eggs sunny-side-up.

• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 200 issued and filed patents and with many more to come.

• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.

• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.

• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.

• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.

Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.

Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:

First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...

http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf

After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increase in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.

Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…

• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]

• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]

• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units

• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units

• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine

• Revenue: $4 billion

• Net Profit Margin: 40%

• Net Profit: $1.6 billion

• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]

• Interest Expense: $0 million

• Interest Income: $20 million

• Tax: $220million

• Depreciation: non cash and very small

• Amortization: non cash and very small

• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion

• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]

• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company

• Price Per Share: $390 per share

In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 4 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.

Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP Display Engines will be larger than the supply."

This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place [like selling SHOWwx and its derivatives directly to US consumers] that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.

It’s ironic how we as investors act sometimes…

We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.

Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, and recognition by industry like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.69.

What, am I missing something here?

Don't tell me it has something to do with hot milk!

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/