MicroVision | End of the Road or End of the Tunnel

The last post I wrote about MicroVision was over a year ago; and the title was the most revealing and depressing…

MicroVision: Major Cost Cutting Measures or Death Spiral?  

A year later─ after blowing another $40 million or so down the hole, and 1 for 8 reverse split─ we seem to be at another juncture in the MicroVision saga.  This time; it’s either the end of the road or end of the tunnel for MicroVision.

Over the last year, we have seen some major cost cutting measures… but still burning $20 million dollars or so per year.  On surface it seems like a good effort… but not good enough to save the company while still waiting for Diode Green Lasers.

At the rate MVIS stock prices is going [down]; it looks like the end of the road… but there is, at the same time, hope that it could be the end of the tunnel and some green light of hope setting into the picture.

There we go again, the good old pesky Diode Green Lasers─ the Holy Grail to the MicroVision salvation.

Before we get into details and start talking about pesky Diode Green Lasers and Holy Grail and such… lets re-visit the issues once more…

Lately, there has been very little visible activity or news at MicroVision─ other than more stock issues and dilution.  And that makes me wonder: “What's up with no SHOW at the Displayland of laser based Pico Projectors?”

Here's the latest scoop and thinking based on some consumer feedback...

1. Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, regardless of the brand name or the underlying technology, are a toy as a standalone device... but the market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range. However, anything better than 15 lumen is definitely a differentiating improvement and worthy of $149 to $199 price tag.
2. Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, using panel or DLP/LED technology, use too much battery power and need constant focusing... and they will also have other gating [like size and heat] issues making into the mobile devices. If panel/DLP/LED technology gets past the mobile platform gating issues; but at fifteen lumens they will still be considered a toy.  However, the market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range... especially when someone else [like AT&T or Verizon] is paying for it. 
3. Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, using MEMS/DGL technology, present a more favorable solution to the battery power issues and do not need constant focusing... and they will have far fewer mobile platform gating issues.  However, at fifteen lumen such laser based devices will still be considered toy... but market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range... especially when someone else is paying for it.

Bottom line is...

“... Can MicroVision make 25 or 30 lumen bright DGL based HD IPMs [High Definition Integrated Photonic Modules] for embedded Pico projectors in millions; and make them cheap enough to be able to sell them in the $149 to $199 range; and manage to stave-off the financial death spiral by showing some net profit on each sale?”

A few dollars profit on each unit sold could easily translate into millions of dollars in profit when adoption rates in handheld devices accelerate into hundreds of million units in the next 3-5 years.

In my opinion, the answer, with some qualifications, is an astounding yes.

Here’s why…

Sony, Sumitomo push laser projectors forward with a new, more powerful green laser diode

By Richard Lawler

Posted June 21st, 2012 7:47AM

Sumitomo Electric and Sony Announce the Joint-Development of the World's First True Green Semiconductor Laser Diode with over 100 mW Output Power at 530nm

Achieves Twice the Luminosity of Conventional Gallium Nitride Green Laser Diodes

Here’s the link to the Press Release from Sony…

http://www.engadget.com/2012/06/21/sony-sumitomo-green-laser-diode/

This is the best news in the history of MicroVision. Because Diode Green Laser at over 100 mW in the true green region wavelength of 530 nm and at 8% wall efficiency…

“… Will allow MicroVision to produce 25 to 30 lumen bright HD IPMs that will take less energy and can be scaled to millions at much reduced cost.”

Now here’s the question for the CEO and BODs of MicroVision...

“After five years of financial orgy─ that produced insignificant amount of sales [of anything] but involved dozens of highly paid managers [and support staff] in the PR, IR, Sales, Marketing, Business Development, Administration, Global Product Management, etc─ can you deliver, now that you have efficient DGLs that you always wanted?”

Or you have another excuse, like…

“… We have cut the fat so deep; it may be “slicing the bone” and caused structural damage to the integrity of the company.”

Investors of MicroVision want to know?

Better still…

“Why not all of you re-sign with some dignity and let competent management team takeover from here?

The last hand is in play... and over the next 6 months it’s the do or quit time for MicroVision brass.

Anant B. Goel 

Producer CEO - RKNet Studios

Producer - Movie 'Pyar Mein Kyun'

 

Microvision: Profitable Product Pricing and Marketing Strategy

It is very important to check the competition prices for comparable product offering, and then recognize [and charge premium if justified] for the value proposition of your product in formulating your product pricing and marketing strategy. This will assure you the highest revenue at the best possible margin. Higher revenues streams with best possible margins are the key to financial success in any commercial product launch.

Looks like Microvision has given considerable thought to their current SHOWwx product pricing and marketing strategy.

All of the SHOWwx PicoP projectors are going to Asia-Pacific and Europe at $500 [to $700] a pop in wholesale price… and as revenue to Microvision. The distributors in the two regions are selling it to end users for about USD $900… representing a net profit potential to them of approximately $200 to $400. If the two distributors want to sell for less… then that is their option and only cuts into their profit margin.

The Asia-Pacific OEM Uniden and the European Mobile phone carrier are also selling it for $900 or so… representing a net profit potential of up to $400 depending on their pricing and promotional strategy.

The bottom line is…

• Microvision is selling all of its SHOWwx production at $500 [to $700] a pop and there is no reason to sell it for less. In the short term, all of SHOWwx production is being used to open doors and establish valuable high volume sales channels [for the future] with global distributors, global consumer electronic OEMs and global mobile phone carriers. Recent announcements of initial purchase orders from Asia-Pacific and Europe are proof positive of this strategy.

• If you look at the details in the press releases and do some further digging into the sales literature of those engaged with Microvision as distributors, OEMs and mobile carriers… you will see that the retail price for the laser PicoP projector SHOWwx is in the USD $900 range.

• Microvision is selling all of its SHOWwx production at $500 [to $700] a pop and there is no reason to sell it for less.

• It is very important to check the competition prices for comparable product offering, and then recognize the value proposition of your product in arriving at a product pricing and marketing strategy. Looks like Microvision has given considerable thought to their current SHOWwx product pricing and marketing strategy.

This is what I see…

o Currently there is more demand than supply for their laser PicoP projector SHOWwx. At first blush, that is a good enough reason to command a premium price compared to the competition. However, it is important to investigate why the demand is high. With little digging, and snooping around, you will see that high demand is directly related to the higher standards of SHOWwx: image quality; large size projection; vivid bright colors; always-in-focus on any projected surface; small physical size and longer battery run features. This is the reason number one for commanding premium prices for laser based PicoP display engines and projectors… and that is today, tomorrow and to the day until supply catches-up with demand.

o Quality always comes at a cost. You want quality… then you pay for quality. As they say: “you can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.” In a nutshell, quality at premium price mantra applies to SHOWwx pricing strategy today, tomorrow and every day… as long as the competition has nothing better to offer but still wants to charge $400 for crap of a pico projector.

o Another way to arrive at product pricing is by placing a dollar value on replacement cost of products eliminated by your product and then add to this the intrinsic value of your product’s other differentiating features.

Here’s an example of pricing strategy…

A. SHOWwx can replace a lamp based projector for small meetings and presentations… lamp based projector replacement cost $900.

B. SHOWwx allows impromptu presentations in bright and vivid colors and always stays in focus with 8 font readability in normal light conditions… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]

C. SHOWwx in the bedroom to watch movies, shows and other streaming videos on the ceiling with no concern for projector location, has short throw ratio from bed to ceiling and always stays in focus… replacement cost of TV on the ceiling $ 900 and $500 in install cost.

D. SHOWwx can project 200” image size under certain lighting conditions like watching movies outdoors while camping, or with friends and neighbors, on a dark summer night … feature value $400 as compared to the competition that is if you are willing to accept small size and washed out color projection.

E. SHOWwx projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]

F. SHOWwx projects higher definition images [848x480]… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]

G. SHOWwx projects always-in-focus images regardless of the distance or movement of the projector… priceless. This feature is the competition killer. Let’s face it, as an example, would you buy a car that needs starting again every time you stopped in traffic or at a red light?

Right, I didn’t think so.

You see, in case of pico projectors from the competition... you need to re-focus the image every time you move or want to change the size of projected image.  Its not quite like re-starting your car engine every time you stop in traffic... but you know what I mean. 

H. SHOWwx projector gives you twice the projection time per battery charge as compared to the competition… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].

I. SHOWwx projector used as a mobile TV [with a set-top box] saves you money on energy usage over its operating life [consuming less than 5 watts per hour] … feature value $1,200 in energy savings over a 10 year period

J. SHOWwx projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source… priceless or replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].

Well, there you have it...

When you add the value of your product’s unique functionality, and money savings from product features, plus the value of improved quality of experience, the value proposition becomes worth a lot more than the $500 [in wholesale] that Microvision wants at this stage of commercial product launch.

Purchase orders from distributors, OEMs and mobile phone carriers is solid validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s laser PicoP projector SHOWwx that offers…

“large & wide screen, high definition, bright vivid colors, longer battery run on single charge, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always-in-focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.”

Looking at the retail prices of ASD $990 [USD $900] it is quite obvious that the wholesale price to Microvision is somewhere from $500 to $700 per unit. And the margins are over 50%... if not more.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime (Part 2)

The cost of missing out can be greater than the cost of messing up.

“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.”
…Leonard Ravenhill

Microvision stock [NASDAQ: MVIS] is an investment that represents the opportunity of a lifetime… in our lifetime. And it is a BIG opportunity that can propel us to our financial goals in one great leap within our active lifetime… like in the next 4 to 5 years.

Here are FIVE REASONS not to let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…

REASON #2

When IBM first introduced the PC in 1980, nobody in their wildest dreams imagined that it will dramatically change the world as we know today. It took about 20 years but we have witnessed dramatic improvements in personal and worker productivity, collaboration, communications, networking, information databases and knowledge creation and exchanges.

Now 25 years later, we are on the cusp of another mega change… a paradigm shift. This time the changes will occur [faster] and impact the way we communicate [visually], network, collaborate, share, care and exchange knowledge and information.

Not only that, the low power requirement of [less than 3watts] the PicoP display engine embedded in all things digital and built into TVs and Projectors may just extend our resources [financial and natural] and save the planet earth from slow death. For example, the biggest energy guzzlers on this planet are big screen TVs.

News from this morning says it all…

California appears poised to be first to ban power-guzzling big-screen TVs

The LosAngeles Times
By Marc Lifsher
October 14, 2009

“Reporting from Sacramento - The influential lobby group Consumer Electronics Assn. is fighting what appears to be a losing battle to dissuade California regulators from passing the nation's first ban on energy-hungry big-screen televisions.”

Here’s the link to the news…

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bigtvs14-2009oct14,0,4908205.story

The energy problem is not just in California… it’s a world-wide problem that needs addressing now before the planet destroys itself with too much “carbon footprint” or due to lack of “energy” to fuel and feed the world’s 6 billion population. Energy conservation, in a big way, is coming soon to every single US state… and it’s just the matter of time.  Electric brown-outs and rationing is in our near future... that is if we, as a nation, do not make an aggressive and collective effort to conserve.    

Talking about conservation...
"The use of PicoP display engines in TVs and Projectors that give us high definition; large screen; always in focus display at a fraction of power [less than 3watts for PicoP display engine] may just be the answer to our worldwide energy problem… where a billion or so TVs suck the energy out of planet in exchange for a few hours of HD entertainment.

I’m sure you will agree that Microvision’s PicoP display technology is disruptive [of a mega proportion] and of a nature that could cause dramatic shift in “technology paradigm” and the “social paradigm” around the world.

Specifically, for the third world countries, for example, the technology paradigm shift would be…

“20inch energy guzzling TVs replaced with a 60inch Integrated Mobile TV/Projector, with built-in DVD player and speakers, at HD resolution with image projection on any surface…always in focus…at miniscule power usage of less than 3watts for the display engine… and at about $699 US dollars.”

The PicoP display engine market for the Integrated Mobile TV/Projector [in the developing countries] is over 1 billion worldwide with an adoption rate ten times bigger than you can hope for the embedded Mobile phone market. Consider this…

• Total population of India and China is over 2.8 billion and growing. Considering an average household size of 5 [for India] and 4 [for China] you have about 650 million households. Ironically, the current Mobile phone market in India and China is also about 700 million. Assuming that the middle-class [only] can afford a Mobile phone then there are 700 million households that fall in the middle class category in India and China.

• Assuming that a household that can afford a mobile phone can certainly afford [and own] a Television. Therefore, in India and China there are at least 700 million TVs. The middle class in India and China is growing at a 10% rate per year. To this growth, you add the rest of the third world and Eastern European countries [for 300 million TVs] and you have potentially 1 billion TVs market world-wide that is looking for low power consuming, high resolution and large size TV experience.

If Microvision [and the OEM partners] mass produce an Integrated Mobile TV/Projector [with built-in DVD player and speakers] at 60” image, HD resolution and consume no more than 3watts for the display engine… you have a billion households as your potential customers… with an adoption rate of ten times higher than that of embedded Mobile phone. This is a huge market with tremendous financial rewards for the slow and steady hand that can deliver on the promise of PicoP display engine to the energy starved world of ours.

Not only that, the low power requirement of the PicoP display engine in Integrated Projectors and Integrated Mobile TVs/Projectors may just extend our resources [financial and natural] and save the planet earth from slow death.

Unlike the US and other western countries, electric power in highly populated countries like India, China, Eastern Europe and other third world countries is in extreme short supply. Not everyone has electricity and those that do have… face constant brown-outs and rationing. With the world energy supply dwindling, and costs rising dramatically, the electricity is a precious commodity.

Here’s a wish list product, based on Microvision’s SHOWwx PicoP projector…

SHOWwx PicoP Model 60: All-in-one Integrated Projector with built-in DVD player and speakers.

FEATURES:

• Low power requirement… less than 3watts for PicoP display engine… 20watts overall
• DVD quality display larger than on a 60″ widescreen TV
• Easy setup — just plug, load and play
• No focus adjustment required
• Built-in handle and carrying case included

The ultimate portable projector, DVD and music player combo, SHOWwx PicoP 60 delivers all the big-screen drama, sound and excitement you desire — just plug, load and play.

For larger-than-life entertainment, SHOW PicoP 60 is the all-in-one product with a built-in progressive scan DVD/CD player and dual Dolby® 5.1 Digital DTS® 5 W stereo speakers. It works with any blank wall or screen and projects DVD movies larger than on a 60-inch widescreen TV.

SHOWwx PicoP 60 sets up easily— all you need is an electrical outlet. There are no additional cables or equipment to hook up. It features a convenient handle and soft, cushioned carrying case so you can take the show on the road. And, it delivers natural colors and bright, vibrant images with 1-chip, MEMS Laser technology.

SHOWwx PicoP 60 is incredibly versatile for videogames, TV, movies and more. It works with your TV set-top box, laptop, Apple iPod® Nintendo® Wii™ Sony® PS3™ or Microsoft® Xbox 360™ video game system for more entertainment options. It displays a 60-inch, widescreen image from just 5 feet away, or a 100-inch image from just 8 feet away.

Dealer Prices may vary from $699 to $899… depending on the model. All prices are in U.S. Dollars.

SELLING FEATURES: Low power, high definition, always –in-focus, rich colors, short throw ratio, fast refresh, and wide screen multi-media experience.

The worldwide market for such a low power consuming laser based Integrated Mobile TV/Projector market is huge.

Microvision has the technology and supply chain partners up and down the line. All they need is the vision and resolve to aggressively pursue this market themselves or do it in collaboration with its global distribution and OEM partners.

Stay tuned for REASON #3… as we move forward in our journey to explore “Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime”

Anant Goel

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: You Have Competition

I’m sure there will be many players in the Pico projection "standalone" space... 3M with LcoS and TI with DLP technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” Pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

Microvision’s PicoP display engine could still lead the “standalone” rat pack because of the following:

• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) will make the Microvision's PicoP projector at par with competition... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

• A wide angle view means that Microvision PicoP projector can show a wider screen at closer distance. This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision PicoP projector you get…

“A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus”.

• Laser based Pico projectors will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance from the screen or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

• Microvision PicoP projector has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using.  The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

• Microvision’s PicoP projectors can go from 12inch to 150inch image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering. We will soon find out what [else] Microvision has to “SHOW” at the CEATEC JAPAN 2009.

Microvision will be demonstrating several integrated product(s) at the CEATEC JAPAN and have signed-up a few major players to evaluate commercial PEKs, and has commercially launched the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx on September 15th 2009. Competition, like 3M and TI, have their LED based Pico projectors on the market for over six months… but they are not selling too well… and their prices keep coming down almost every month.

However, it is just the begining of the 7-10 year Pico projector adoption cycle and the market is expected to take-off in 2010…
http://fixed-mobile-convergence.tmcnet.com/topics/mobile-communications/articles/54130-report-picoprojector-revenues-will-exceed-1-billion.htm

Competition is good and will help with faster adoption of the Pico projector by the billion plus unit market. To be a huge [financial] success, Microvision needs only a small percentage of the overall market that finally adopts the technology.

The first batch of many media reviews are starting to come-in from CEATEC JAPAN …

http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/

[Make sure to scroll down and watch the streaming video... it is just awesome!]
http://www.legitreviews.com/news/6600/

It is very interesting to see what the media from CEATEC JAPAN is saying…

Microvision's laser-based SHOW WX pico projector shines at CEATEC

“Microvision just struck a deal to start shipping its PicoP-based SHOW WX pico projector in Asia, and while the size may not blow any minds, the image quality just might. With a native 848 x 480 resolution (WVGA), this one pumps out more pixels than pretty much any other pico projector on the market today, and with enough darkness, it can actually spit out an image that's around 100-inches in size. We stopped by the company's booth here at CEATEC in order to have a look at what makes the world's first laser-based pico PJ so special, and we can honestly say the picture was pretty stunning (considering the device we're talking about). We got a lecture on just how amazing the innards actually are (hear for yourself after the break), but it's the estimated $500 price tag and 2010 US ship date that really had us intrigued.

The company also confessed that it's toiling away in an effort to miniaturize its PicoP engine even further, and while it wouldn't come right out and say it, we got the feeling that it was jonesing to get that very device into all sorts of other gizmos in the near future. In the meanwhile, you can expect the SHOW WX to ship with support for pretty much any input via a composite adapter, while an iPod / iPhone connector is apt to be bundled in as well. There's also a 3.5 millimeter audio passthrough, 10 lumens of brightness, a 60Hz refresh rate (trust us, the lines you see in the video aren't seen by the naked eye) and a built-in battery good for two hours on a charge. Oh, and this thing's ability to refocus instantly as you move it closer and farther from the wall is pretty swank -- just sayin'.”

There you have it!

My money is “still” on Microvision.  However, I am keeping an eye on the competition… including TI, 3M and Syndiant.  Microvision just raised the Pico bar for rest of the competition... some of them with billions in their war chest to fight another day.

However, today belongs to Microvision!

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Open Letter to the Fool Extraordinaire, the Chief Operating Fool at Motley Fool

October 2, 2009

Gentlemen,

Reference: You have a Rogue Writer at Motley Fool

Webster’s on-line dictionary defines “Rogue as…

“1: vagrant, tramp 2: a dishonest or worthless person: scoundrel 3: a mischievous person: scamp 4: a horse inclined to shirk or misbehave ...”

If I had my choice, and I surely do, I would call this writer Mr. Adam Wiederman at Motley Fool “a dishonest” person whose writings are “worthless” to the investor community.” Here’s why…

Reason Number One:

On the same day Microvision made the announcement of its first purchase order for their laser PicoP projectors, from the Asian Marketing and Distribution partner, Mr. Wiederman [the rogue writer at Motley Fool] wrote an article…

*****

You’d Be Stupid to Buy These Stocks
By Adam J. Wiederman
September 30, 2009  Comments (7)

"Now is an absolutely ridiculous time to buy small-cap stocks.

"You'd be a dope to snap up shares of companies like Novavax (Nasdaq: NVAX), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: BCRX), Microvision (Nasdaq: MVIS), and Vanda Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: VNDA) -- all of which are up more than 500% since March's market low."

That's what you might be hearing, now that the small-cap Russell 2000 Index is outpacing the S&P 500 by more than 19 percentage points. Even The Wall Street Journal predicts that the small-cap rally is set to come screeching to a halt.

But don't be duped ...

Just because many small-cap stocks have seen a huge increase in the last few months doesn't mean you should avoid all of them.

And the article continues…

*****

Here’s the link to the full article, in case you’re foolish enough to read any further…

http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2009/09/30/youd-be-stupid-to-buy-these-stocks.aspx

Now we all know that Motley Fool makes no bones about being foolish most of the time, what I didn’t know that they were stupid as well. By being foolish you may look silly or perhaps hurt yourself… but by being stupid and writing an advisory article to influence the investing public, you are hurting others. And that’s a big difference. We don’t care what you do to hurt yourself or look silly while doing it… but we do care when you set out to hurt us.

Enough of name calling!

Here’s the second reason in this open letter to the Fools extraordinaire, the Chief Operating Fool at Motley Fool…

Reason Number Two:

There is an old saying: “a rolling stone gathers no mass.”

So is the “trader” of the modern age… like a rolling stone that gather no [meaning full] portfolio mass in the long term. Let’s face it. A trader is not an investor and your rogue writer’s advice is directed towards such traders. I hope it is, because if he is preaching your insanely dumb sermon to the investor choir you are foolishly naïve and should be committed to “investment education” for the next six months.

Take my example as an investor…

I have always believed in investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift with an eye on the long term growth prospects.

I’m one of those old timers that invested in Intel during its early days as a company… in the early 80’s. I recall buying some shares for a total cost of $1,000 dollars. That was lot of money in those days and commission paid was a disgrace. Stock brokers were king of the hill and roamed the streets like God’s gift to humanity.

I had to liquidate all my position in Intel during the Dot Com bust of 2000… around May of that year. I think it was just before the last stock split the company had. However, it was not all that bad, because I managed to sell pretty close to the all time high and I remember bragging about my good fortune and fortitude to have stayed the course to make over 14,000% profit… for a net gain of over $140,000 dollars. That’s right… over $140,000 in profit including dividends and the stock splits.

In the last 30 odd years that I have been investing, I had my share of good fortune and misfortune. However, what’s important is the fact that I managed to secure my financial future and live today to talk about my strategy of investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift.

Some of these companies have grown to be huge enterprises and have made their early investors, like me, over 10,000% or over since their inception. Some day, I will tell you about my other [early] investment in companies like Dell, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Cisco, Healthsouth [after the 2003 perfect storm] and most recently Microvision. And while Dell has had disappointing returns since the turn of the century, its business is still strong and investors have not even come close to losing everything.

Currently, I’m out of all the stocks except Microvision [Nasdaq: MVIS]. The past performers in my portfolio have served well. However, these companies like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, Microsoft and Healthsouth are past their hyper growth phase and are now too big and are just slow earnings growth vehicles. No disrespect to these fine companies… it’s just that they don’t fit the “hyper growth” company model any more.

My only stock holding now, besides an options income portfolio, is Microvision. If you would like to find out why I consider Microvision to be the next 50,000% profit producer, then click on the link to the following blog posts and make sure to read all the related articles.

Access to this blog is free and author’s profile will tell you why he is taking this time and making an effort to reach out and share information that already exists in the Internet sphere…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009_10_01_archive.html

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/microvision-from-here-to-...

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/yes-virginia-its-intel-in...

The least you can do, without causing further damage or raising an uproar from the investors community, is to gracefully re-tract the article.

I know, you will look foolish doing it… but then again you are used to it.

Warm regards,

Anant Goel
Investor Extraordinaire

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision Receives Purchase Order and Begins Shipping World's First Laser Pico Projector, SHOWwx

That's the news headline from this morning...

Here’s the link to the press release…

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090930005658&newsLang=en

*****

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (Nasdaq:MVIS), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and image capture products for mobility applications announced today that it has received a purchase order from its Asian marketing and distribution partner and has begun shipments of its PicoP® display engine-based product, the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector. Microvision expects its distribution partner to unveil its go to market product plans shortly.

“We are delighted to announce that Microvision has commenced shipments this week of the SHOWWX laser pico projector, our first commercial product based on the proprietary PicoP display engine,” said Alexander Tokman, President and CEO of Microvision. “This is a historical milestone for Microvision, accented by a purchase order that firmly kicks-off the first sales for the SHOWWX.”

The SHOWWX is a simple plug-n-play pico projector for people on-the-go who want to spontaneously view and share multimedia applications and programs such as mobile TV, movies, photos, presentations and more. Users can take the pocket-sized projector anywhere, plug it into their portable media players, mobile phones, notebooks and other portable mobile media devices and share a big screen experience with friends, family or business associates. Depending on the ambient light, the projected images range in size from 12” to 150”. The SHOWWX uses the revolutionary laser-based PicoP display engine technology that delivers large, colorful, bright, and vivid images that are always in focus, regardless of projection distance.

*****

This news was expected and is the follow-up to the pre-launch announced, as commercial introduction, on September 15th…

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090915006111&newsLang=en

If you look at this press release from September 15th, it is interesting to note that there will [certainly] be more news coming in the next few days and weeks.  Just look at this statement in the press release…

“The Company plans to distribute its accessory pico projector product through three sales channels: OEM branded products, Microvision branded products sold through international distributors and Microvision direct sales through its on-line store. Microvision has signed several marketing and distribution agreements with international distributors in Asia and Europe to launch Microvision branded and private labeled versions of the laser pico projector. Microvision expects to begin product shipments in the next several weeks.”

Now look at news heading from today…

“Microvision Receives Purchase Order and Begins Shipping World's First Laser Pico Projector, SHOWwx”

That’s the news about “Microvision branded products sold through international distributors”. The next news items, as you can see, will be coming soon and most probably will announce…

• The names of OEMs for the “OEM branded products”. And I’m sure you will agree that OEM branded products could be SHOWwx with an OEM’s logo on it… or they could be as embedded PicoP in multitude of digital devices [like laptops, DVD players and mobile TV/projectors] where size and power is not an issue.

• The launch of Microvision branded products sold directly through its on-line store.

Also, there will be additional announcement on a regular basis, that is if you paid attention to what Alex Tokman [Microvision CEO] said at the Annual Stockholders Meeting:

“… that shipments would start about where they have and increase on a monthly basis with the big numbers happening early next year."

Think about it…

“… big numbers happing early next year”.

That sounds like quite a few more tier one OEMs making commitments between now and the early next year.

Today’s announcement of “purchase order” is a major milestone that has been accomplished, with-in the stated time frame by the management team. One thing is for sure, that over the last three years, Alex Tokman and his management team are making diligent effort to establish credibility with the investment community, and its supply chain partners, after the perpetual “product introduction next year” mantra of the past management.

"We are delighted to announce that Microvision has commenced shipments this week of the SHOWWX laser pico projector, our first commercial product based on the proprietary PicoP display engine," said Alexander Tokman, President and CEO of Microvision. "This is a historical milestone for Microvision, accented by a purchase order that firmly kicks-off the first sales for the SHOWWX."

First sale firmly kicked-off by a purchase order !

That’s great news, but to the disappointment of many stakeholders, it gives very little details about “who”, “what”, “price”, “quantities, etc. See what Barron’s Blog had to say…

“Microvision (MVIS), which makes ultra-small projectors for mobile applications, said this morning that it has received a purchase order from its Asian marketing and distribution partner and has begun shipments of its SHOWwx laser pico projector. The company said it expects its distribution partner “to unveil its go to market product plans shortly.”

“Despite the lack of details in the announcement - there’s nothing on the size of the order, or who the partner is - MVIS today is up 43 cents, or 8.4%, to $5.54.”

Here’s the link…

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2009/09/30/microvision-spikes-gets-projector-purchase-order/

But then again, if you read the press release, or Barron’s Blog, carefully, it says:

“Microvision expects its distribution partner to unveil its go to market product plans shortly.”

In my opinion, that says it all and is good enough to wait for more news during the CEATEC conference in Tokyo next week from October 6-10, 2009.

After today’s announcement, we can be sure of a few things…

• Green Lasers from Corning are finally in commercial production, after having resolved all of the technical, production and cost issues of the recent past. Recently, DigiTimes interviewed Corning CEO, Wendell Weeks and this is what he [Corning CEO] had to say about their green lasers…

“Our green laser technology will enable mobile displays where the size of the image is no longer limited by the size of the device. Our green laser G-1000 device achieves high efficiency in a compact form with excellent beam quality and high bandwidth.”

“And finally, we have many new products in our innovation portfolio that continue Corning's tradition of solving tough customer problems and providing key benefits to users. Our synthetic green lasers will make it possible to project large, high-resolution images from portable devices like cell phones, giving consumers greater flexibility to interact with information. …”

Here’s the link to a long interview…

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090929PD209.html

• Asia Optical, Microvision’s supply chain partner, is in commercial production of PicoP display engines, PicoP Evaluation Kits (PEK), and the SHOWwx PicoP projectors.

• Enough green laser are being produced to full-fill the needs of the first “truck load” purchase order from the first International Marketing and Distribution partner.

• PicoP product quality, reliability, safety, and price point is acceptable to the first commercial buyer of a truck load… in a marketplace where there are other choices from the likes of TI with DLP and 3M with LcoS technologies.

In closing, I must re-state some of the things that you may have heard before…

Past Delays:
The past delays were not the fault of Microvision… but they were in securing the green laser supply pipeline. Also, the move from prototype to mass production unit had some speed bumps…and that is not unexpected.

Embedded PicoP:
Considering the past delays and progress made to-date, an embedded PicoP projector for cell phones by this Christmas won’t happen… next Christmas, maybe! But, what is real is that this thing will move forward, on its own timetable, and it will succeed. However, there are many other embedded solutions [like in laptops] may happen lot sooner. Expect to see embedded projectors in 2010, and eyewear is slated for 2011.

Product Launch:
The product launch strategy in the near term consists of three parts:

1. Private label marketing by third parties… where Microvision supplies the final product like SWOWwx to the OEMs and they slap on their own logo and use their own packaging. In such a scenario, the OEMs are expected to do their own warranty, service and support.

2. International distribution… presents a stronger market at present, as Asian and European countries take up new technology faster, and at better premiums prices than in the US. Also, the weak dollar makes American goods a compelling bargain to the foreigners. Today’s announcement about the first purchase order is all about “International Distribution”.

3. Microvision sells from their website… The motivating factor here seems to be the margins and more importantly… to prove to the large OEM players that Microvision has its supply chain in place and can mass produce a reliable product for the humongous market.

Major Player in the Imaging Market Place:
“Laser steering projector is the bread and butter of Microvision for the foreseeable future and we are going to focus on the embedded PicoP to make the company profitable.” These are believed to be the words of Alex Tokman?

“Microvision is positioning itself thru patents and IP to be a major player in the image community. He (Alex) said: “Microvision is not going to be a small component provider that can be marginalized by bigger players.”

Alex sees the company as an INTEL type company. He is going to make the company a player in the image industry. That explains the “Image by PicoP” as the slogan chosen for the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx. Please read my post on…

Yes Virginia: “Its Intel Inside… but Image by PicoP.”

Here’s the link…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/yes-virginia-its-intel-inside-but-image.html

Alex mentioned a few things as to why he believes the product [PicoP display engine] is going to be successful…

• Uniqueness: nobody has lasers; nobody is doing what we are doing.

• Thin Form Factor: nobody has our size and nobody can do HD images without getting bigger.

• Longer Battery life: up to 2 hours currently vs. 45 minutes for the competition.

• Infinite focus: nobody else has it.

• Larger screen experience: from 12” to 150” diagonal under certain ambient light conditions.

• Superior small font readability: we are the only one that has 10 pt readable fonts.

• Uniformity of brightness: Images are uniformly bright from edge to edge, unlike some other competitors.

• No rainbow effect: like the LcoS panel based projectors.

• Twice the color gamut (range) of NTSC

• WVGA resolution: with sharper image detail and brightness

Corning and Osram [the two supply chain partners] are not only improving the laser light technology, but also its performance and price as well. The next generation of green laser and PicoP display engine will bear this out.

Mass production of laser lights and PicoP display engine is expected to be in early 2010.

That pretty much covers what I see in my notes. If I find something else, I’ll get back to you. Please feel free to comment.

Now remember what I said…

“Each announcement or news item, between now the middle of 2010-- when green lasers go into mass production, is accretive to the near term intrinsic value of Microvision for speculating on the future, its growth and the overall long term potential of the company at this early stage.”

In simple terms…

“Sooner or later, each announcement or news item will build upon the previous one.”

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Protect Your Intellectual Property Part 2

Recently, IEEE Spectrum has refreshed its annual assessment of IP portfolios in different technology sectors for the year 2007… including Electronics where Microvision is cited.

Here’s the link to IEEE Spectrum Patents Scorecard…

http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/static/patentsurvey2008

[Make sure to click on “Electronics" category to get the data and read the bottom foot notes for explanation of the terms used]

In this evaluation, the Adjusted Pipeline Impact (API) score indicates how frequently a company’s patents from the previous five years were cited by other patents... after adjusting for self-citation. Microvision scored 2nd in API [at 1.71] out of the Top 20 electronics companies… in the year 2007.

What does that really mean in terms of value of these patent citations by other patents to the overall market valuation of Microvision?

Let’s check with the experts in the business…

Scholars have learned that a powerful proxy for innovative expertise is how frequently a company’s existing patents are cited in patent applications. Indeed, one-quarter of all patents receive no citations, and a mere 0.01% earn more than 100 citations, according to Bronwyn Hall, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley.

http://www.jstor.org/pss/1593752

In a study by four economists covering seven industries that generate a large number of patents, researchers found that a patent mentioned 14 times by other patents is worth, on average, 100 times as much as a patent cited only 8 times. Another estimated that “companies with widely cited patents and a track record of turning them into products outperformed the market by 1,000% over a 10-year period.”

Let me re-state…

“…companies with widely cited patents and a track record of turning them into products outperformed the market by 1,000% over a 10-year period”.

In addition to this peek through the window to Microvision future …

There is a wealth of information there [ in the IEEE Spectrum Patents Scorecard] and a further in-depth study [and some research] by an experienced professional will quickly reveal where the future infringers, challengers, claimers and “patent trolls’ of Microvision IP portfolio are at work.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Protect Your Intellectual Property Part 1

Today, as reported in the Wall Street Journal, Microvision has been ranked #43 worldwide in the electronics & instruments industry for the strength of their patent portfolio by “The Patent Board”, the leading independent provider of best practices research, tools and metrics for patent analysis and intellectual property investment.

According to The Patent Board, Microvision had a 29% increase in patenting and a 38% increase in Industry Impact™ this quarter.

Here’s the link to The WSJ/Patent Score Card from this morning…

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-macromkt.html?mod=topnav_2_3000

Monday, September 28, 2009

Companies and private research firms are grouped by their Patent Board technology strength ranking which is based on the scale, quality, impact, and nearness to core science of a company’s patent-based intellectual property. This overall strength rating factors in both qualitative and quantitative aspects of a company’s patent portfolio.

Continue on to the Score Card…
*****

If you have been reading about the recent buzz about Pico projectors, you will know that the laser based PicoP display engine/projector market will be huge in the next few years. And sooner or later the competition will recognize that laser based Pico projection produces the most desirable and always in focus images. Laser based Pico projection is the way to go… and single MEMS will be the least expensive and scalable solution to the huge potential markets world-wide that is more the 2 billion units per year large.

With that in mind, the question comes to mind: “How well Microvision is prepared and plans to fend-off infringement to its Intellectual Property in the future… for the sake of its future?” Microvision is the only company, as of this day, that produces the RGB laser based single MEMS PicoP display engine/projector on this planet.

With the enormous size of the future Pico projector market [in terms of units & dollars] the financial rewards will certainly attract competitors that will…

Having said that…

• Blatantly infringe on Microvision patents;

• challenge the validity of Microvision patents;
• claim conferring a “negative right” upon Microvision;
• claim Microvision as “patent troll”;
• and of course develop their own portfolio of “petty” patents to “fragment” the Microvision IP portfolio.

What’s needed is proactive, relentless, ruthless and effective IP portfolio management at Microvision… something similar to what was successfully done [and continues to be] at Qualcomm. The most effective and the least expensive way to do that, is to go out there and hire a senior patent engineer from Qualcomm and appoint him/her the CPO… the Chief Patent Officer at Microvision.

Why Qualcomm you say?

Well consider this from personal experience…

“About 12 years ago, I had the opportunity of managing a semi-conductor company about three miles away from Qualcomm in San Diego. During the course of my tenure I made friends with a few Qualcomm executives and learned a few things about their patents and IP management as an asset… especially with a serious understanding of their company’s major [if not entire] business model that was based around licensing and royalty.”

“I still remember the “lobby wall” at Qualcomm with over 850 issued patents [currently over 1,200] framed and displayed proudly. Qualcomm’s patents were for CDMA technology and at the time [in 1996] they knew it would some day power billions of cell phones worldwide. Qualcomm managed their IP assets proactively, relentlessly, ruthlessly and very effectively… that is until recently before the Broadcomm debacle which cost Qualcomm $891 million dollars in IP infringement litigation and damages cost.”

The Wall Street Journal/Patent Board is the leading independent provider of best practices research, tools and metrics for patent analysis and intellectual property investment. The Patent Board’s team of experts, deep pool of knowledge and foundation in core research provides its clients with valuable insight on patent-based IP strategies. The Patent Board leadership is advancing the value of patent knowledge to both inform business strategy and to help define patent assets as the next critical financial asset class.

That’s a mouth full. The bare naked truth of all this for Microvision is…

“With the enormous size of the future Pico projector market [in terms of units & dollars] the financial rewards will certainly attract deep pocketed competitors that will infringe [and engage in all the above unscrupulous deeds] to test your resolve, create distraction, put financial burden of litigation… all in the hopes of extracting a cheap, if not free, licensing agreement.”

With that in mind, the question to ask is: “How well Microvision is prepared and how it plans to fend-off infringement to its Intellectual Property in the future… for the sake of its future?”

Anant Goel

INTEL: I made Over 14,000% Profit since 1981 by Investing in Intel Stock

I’m one of those old timers that invested in Intel during its early days as a company… in the early 80’s. I recall buying some shares for a total cost of $1,000 dollars. That was lot of money in those days and commission paid was a disgrace. Stock brokers were king of the hill and roamed the streets like God’s gift to humanity.

I had to liquidate all my position in Intel during the Dot Com bust of 2000… around May of that year. I think it was just before the last stock split the company had. However, it was not all that bad, because I managed to sell pretty close to the all time high and I remember bragging about my good fortune and fortitude to have stayed the course to make over 14,000% profit… for a net gain of over $140,000 dollars. That’s right… over $140,000 in profit including dividends and the stock splits.

I always believed in investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift with an eye on the long term growth prospects. In the last 30 odd years that I have been investing, I had my share of good fortune and misfortune. However, what’s important is the fact that I managed to secure my financial future and live today to talk about my strategy of investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift. Some of these companies have grown to be huge enterprises and have made their early investors, like me, over 10,000% or over since their inception. Some day, I will tell you about my other [early] investment in companies like Dell, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Cisco, Healthsouth [after the 2003 perfect storm] and most recently Microvision. And while Dell has had disappointing returns since the turn of the century, its business is still strong and investors have not even come close to losing everything.

Currently, I’m out of all the stocks except Microvision [Nasdaq: MVIS]. The past performers in my portfolio have served well. However, these companies like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, Microsoft and Healthsouth are past their hyper growth phase and are now too big and are just slow earnings growth vehicles. No disrespect to these fine companies… it’s just that they don’t fit the “hyper growth” company model any more.

My only stock holding now, besides an options income portfolio, is Microvision. If you would like to find out why I consider Microvision to be the next 50,000% profit producer, then click on the link to my blog post and make sure to read all the related articles.

Access to my blog is free and my profile will tell you why I’m taking this time and making an effort to reach out and share information that already exists in the Internet sphere…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/microvision-from-here-to-picop-ubiquity.html

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/yes-virginia-its-intel-inside-but-image.html

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Creative Imagination at Work: Pricing Strategy for SHOWwx

Here’s an example of creative imagination at work. However, the solution we seek is not product or service related. Here, the creative imagination is applied to profitability issue in marketing and could be called “creative marketing”… or “gorilla marketing”… or plain old making “lemonade from lemons”.

Here we go…

Currently, the competition in the Pico projector space comes from two major players, TI with its DLP technology and 3M with its LcoS technology. The competition sells its second generation Pico projector for about $395 and the quality of the image from their projectors looks like the picture on the left side below. Microvision’s PicoP projector SWOWwx, on the other hand, projects its image better than the one on the right side.

http://www.picoprojector-info.com/btendo-laser-projector-vs-lcos-projector-photo-1

If $395 was assumed as the average price for the baseline model and functionality [in-line with what the competition is asking], then Microvision could [and should] charge $599 for not only the better quality and vivid images but also some very interesting and differentiating features…

• Always-in-focus on any projected surface [projecting on curved surfaces or from an angel on flat surfaces]

• Short throw ratio 1:1 [bigger picture from short distance]

• Stunningly colorful, bright, vivid and detailed images [200% NTSC]

• Large images size [from 20” to 150” diagonal ]

• Higher image resolution (848×480) with HD pathway in future models

• Unmatched small font readability [size 8 font]

• Wide aspect ratio 16:9 [for wide screen experience]

• Fast refresh [60 Hz] to prevent motion blur when watching sports or action videos and movies

• High contrast ratio 5000:1

• Easy and simple plug and play. Single connector for TV-out [composite], VGA [RGB] and 3.5mm stereo jack─ audio pass through

• Longer battery life. Movie capable battery life when fully charged. Charges via Micro-USB

• 3 year warranty service… why not with all that MEMS reliability and exceeding drop test performance

• Headboard clamp for in-bed watching videos and movies on the ceiling

• All cables and leather case included

• Trade-in offer [worth $200 in exchange value] for any future PicoP projector.

All these features are inherent in the laser based PicoP display engine and they don’t really cost anything extra but they allow you to monetize the superior product functionality that Microvision offers. There is no reason to give it away for free…

http://www.microvision.com/pek/pico/

Since Microvision has more demand than they can supply [5:1 ratio], it only makes sense to monetize [profitably] whatever they are able to supply. It positions SHOWwx as the premium high quality PicoP Projector in the market. Interestingly, it gives you a payout even greater than the “Trifecta” on the racetracks…

• Brings superior product to the market sooner

• Creates “premium high quality” image perception from the start

• Generates profitable revenues in spite of the limited green laser delivery

• Prevents negative connotations associated with “out-of-stock” scenarios when there is more demand than supply

• Immediately engages the first movers─ that are also the center of future influence on others─ into purchasing a premium high quality product

• Keeps your potential customers engaged, interested and willing to wait for the superior product when more supply becomes available and the price has come down to with-in their affordability or price/value perception range.

[The Trifecta or triple is a bet made in horse racing to pick the first, second, and third place horses in a race. The payouts for hitting the Trifecta can be astronomical.]

This premium price strategy is what’s called “gorilla” marketing… where you choke the demand to bring it in-line with supply… all at the same time increasing your overall profitability… and keeping the competition trapped in their comfort zone of lower prices and at bay.

Apple uses this strategy all the time, why not Microvision?

Microvision can always drop the prices in the future, as the supply catches-up with demand. In the meantime, this strategy allows Microvision to convert a bad situation into profitably good strategy… like making lemonade from lemons.

This is another example of creative imagination at work… that just happened to be so appropriate and timely.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision PicoP Projector SHOWwx Launch… Stroke of Genius

My information tells me that a very few SHOWwx will be sold as stand alone units… between now and middle of the year 2010. Most all, as we speak, PicoP display engines may go to at least one [of the three] OEMs for embedment into the laptop computers… soon to be followed by the “bedroom streaming projectors”.

This OEM may, as I understand, charge an additional premium [say $500] for a top-line laptop with a built-in PicoP projector. That’s where the PicoP display engines are going. Very few SHOWwx will be released to those in the “media” and others with an established following… the so called “centers of influence”. Those that signed-up as Microvision VIPs may be next, who knows, after having salivated long enough… or after having pounded the “keepers” of the DisplayLand at the company blog.

In my opinion, this strategy is a stroke of genius…

• Sell what you have between now and middle of 2010, at premium prices.

• Get the product in the hands of those that have discretionary income and are center of influence.

• Create the buzz to build an enormous back-log… consumer can wait a few months [I would] for a quality product.

• Keep the competition guessing and lulled into a non-threatening posture… while operating in a stealth mode a bit longer so you can get your green “ducks- in-line” for mass production.

• Channel the product where it serves a professional and productivity function in a market that is 230 million units big. In 2007, over 230 million laptops were sold… and 2009 is shaping-up to be over 280 million units.

• IDC believes that by 2009, more than 80% of notebooks will offer wide-screen displays. Portable shipments will continue to rise in that time period as well, jumping from 62.5 million units in 2005 to 114.6 million in 2009. Guess what? They all are looking for a wide screen experience and a laptop with embedded PicoP projector may just be the right answer.

• Skirt the damage that video pollution and video graffiti issues the “teeny boppers” can inflict… if the SHOWwx was to fall into their hands early on. Don’t have to deal with these “teeny boppers” running around and projecting into peoples faces.

• The next premium market to hit will be the “bedroom projector” market. Every household on this planet has at least one bedroom and the total number is a staggering 1 billion plus. Microvision PicoP display engine is the perfect because it is the only projector that has…

o Short throw from bed to the ceiling

o Vivid color HD image in wide screen format [currently WVGA at 848x480]

o Always cool to the touch

o Always in focus from any position on or around the bed. Don’t have to hold a laser PicoP projector between your legs like the ones from TI [DLP technology] or 3M [LcoS technology] .

If Microvision were to focus on these two markets alone while getting their ducks-in-line for the launch of embedded PicoP display engine for mobile devices… you and I will be very happy investors with high margin revenues flowing from the boardrooms and bedrooms of planet earth.

Microvision will be ten times a bigger company than Apple and Intel… combined.

Image by PicoP… anyone?

Right, get in the line please.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Will Change the Visual Experience of Future Mobile Devices

Today, the mobile devices are ubiquitous and if you were to project out the current trends another ten years…

“You will be carrying with you, on a 24x7 basis, a very powerful, always connected, functions & sensor-rich device with enhanced visual experience… called the Smartphones. And the cool thing is, so will everyone else. So what are you going to do with it that you aren't doing now?

Before we consider the possibilities, let’s first address the ubiquity of the mobile devices and extrapolate the current trends towards the mobile phones of the future for everyone on this planet. In other words, the mobile phones of to-day will pave the path to ubiquity for Smartphones of tomorrow… and that tomorrow may be here as early as the next 10 years. Consider this…

• There are currently about 3.2 billion mobile subscribers in the world, and that number is expected to grow by at least a billion in the next few years.

• Today, mobile phones are more prevalent than cars (about 800 million registered vehicles in the world) and credit cards (only 1.4 billion of those).

• While it took 100 years for landline phones to spread to more than 80% of the countries in the world, their wireless descendants did it in only 16 years.

• Fewer teens are wearing watches now because they use their phones to tell time instead. So it's safe to say that the mobile phone may be the most productive and ubiquitous consumer product ever invented.

However, have you ever considered just exactly how powerful these ubiquitous devices are and if the current trends were to be extrapolated… what future mobile device will look like? Whatever the name [or logo] on the cover, under the hood these mobile phones of the future will be the Smartphones that will be very smart [pun intended] and very powerful. Smartphones like “Blackberry” considered a business tool are now successfully targeting consumers. On the other hand, “iPhone” considered a consumer product is now targeting business customers. Some day, they may converge and pretty much offer the same power, functionality, connectivity, long battery life and ease of use etc.

As more and more consumers switch to Smartphones globally, the Blackberry and iPhone are picking up market share at the expense of foreign competitors such as Nokia.

However, the good news is that the overall Smartphones market is growing faster than ever. In 2008, a total of 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold worldwide, according to IDC, of which some 160 million were Smartphones, or 13%. In 2013, IDC predicts that 20% of the 1.4 billion mobile phones sold will be Smartphones, or 280 million.

Currently, we know what Smartphones like Blackberry and iPhone offer. What we don’t know and, therefore, can only speculate what additional functionality and features the future Smartphones may offer. Here’s a list of what the future may hold in store for the consumers…

Smart alerts:  Your mobile phone will be smart about your situation and alert you when something needs your attention. This is already happening today… eBay can text you when you've been outbid, and alert services (such as Google News) can deliver news, sports, or stock updates to you. In the future, these applications will get smarter, patiently monitoring your personalized preferences (which will be stored in the network cloud) and delivering only the information you desire. One very useful scenario: your phone knows that you are heading downtown for dinner, and alerts you of transit conditions or the best places to park.

Augmented reality:  Your mobile phone uses its arsenal of sensors to understand your situation and provide you information that might be useful. A stylish looking app, for one example, may automatically track Zagat rated restaurants, giving users food and cost scores as they move in real time bringing new dining places into view as they appear on the map.

Or perhaps, do you really want to know how much is that red dress in the window? Your phone, with its GPS and compass, knows what you are looking at, so it can tell you before you even ask. Plus, it may even suggest what purse and accessories go with the red dress?

Crowd sourcing:  Your mobile phone is your omnipresent window to the world, a way to publish pictures, emails, texts, Twitters, streaming videos and blog entries. When everyone else is doing the same, you have a world where people from every corner of the planet are covering their experiences in real-time. That massive amount of content gets archived, sorted, and re-deployed to other people in new and interesting ways. Ask the web for the most interesting sites in your vicinity, and your phone shows you reviews and pictures that people have uploaded of nearby attractions. Like what you see? It will send you directions on how to get there.

Sensors everywhere:  Your mobile phone knows a lot about the world around you. If you take that intelligence and combine it in the cloud with that of every other phone, we have an incredible snapshot of what is going on in the world right now.

Tool for development:  Your mobile phone may be more than just a convenience; it may be your livelihood. Already, this is true for people in many parts of the world: in southern India, fishermen use text messaging to find the best markets for their daily catch, in South Africa, sugar farmers can receive text messages advising them on how much to irrigate their crops, and throughout sub-Saharan Africa entrepreneurs with mobile phones become phone operators, bringing communications to their villages. These innovations will only increase in the future, as mobile phones become the linchpin for greater economic development.

The future-proof device:  Your mobile phone will open up, as the Internet already has, so it will be easy for developers to create or improve applications and content. The ones that you care about get automatically installed on your phone. Let's say you have a piece of software on your phone to improve power management (and therefore battery life). Let's say a developer makes an improvement to the software. The update gets automatically installed on your phone, without you lifting a finger. Your phone actually gets better over time.

Safer software through trust and verification:  Your mobile phone will provide tools and information to empower you to decide what to download, what to see, and what to share. Trust is the most important currency in the always connected world, and your phone will help you stay in control of your information. You may choose to share nothing at all (default mode), or just share certain things with certain people─ your circle of trusted friends and family. You'll make these decisions based on information you get from the service and software providers and the collective ratings of the community as well. Your phone is like your trusted valet: it knows a lot about you, and won't disclose an iota of it without your permission.

Enhanced Visual Experience:  Not too long ago, a mobile phone offered only a one-to-one viewing experience with little room for personalization and lacking the cool factor. Soon Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will change the DNA of the phone, making it more visual, interactive and unique to the user. Taking this a step further, your cell phone will become a “one-to-many” tool, allowing us to share mobile content with groups of friends, family and colleagues. In the not-too-distant future, road warriors will be showing presentations to a room full of colleagues via a projector accessory [SHOWwx} for their mobile phones. We have only begun to unleash the mobile visual experience.

Microvision Will Change Your Visual Experience, Wirelessly:

With the increasing number and variety of visual applications on mobile phones, Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will deliver the mobile experience consumers have come to expect. Consumers will be able to use their mobile phones to capture and store high-quality content, including digital movies and console-quality video games, and then watch the content with others via a connection to mobile, palm-sized, full-featured SHOWwx PicoP projector, which are expected to be available in the summer of 2009.

Professional and amateur film makers can already use their mobile phones to show-off high-quality samples of their creations to producers using video clips taken on their handset. Soon, they [and you] will be able to share your video creation or the latest funny video from YouTube with a room full of people, in DVD quality (848 x 480) resolution, the same clarity you receive from your DVD player at home. Parents will be able to send DVD quality videos of their children learning how to ride a bike to family members, who may then show a room full of their friends.

In conjunction with third party technology for processing HD video and graphics content, Microvision’s PicoP projector will allow [in 2010] integration into a mobile phone, further enhancing display options in mobile devices. Microvision’s Pico projector is creating a new standard by extending beyond the limitations of the physical screen on mobile phones and allowing consumers to share content with friends and family.

From viewing video content on a 2-inch LCD screen on your mobile phone to being able to watch DVD-quality video in widescreen TV format projected to the closest wall, the wireless experience will never be the same.

Quality of image, rich & vivid colors and always-in-focus feature is important when projecting from your Mobile devices. For comparison, look at the quality and size of the Microvision’s PicoP projection and compare it to the [static] images from the Optoma DLP Pico projector and the 3M LcoS Pico projector…

First, the link to the Optoma DLP Pico projector video…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMeQBF4LNws

Next, the link to 3M LcoS Pico projector video…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NNMHYgpGO4

Now look at Microvision laser PicoP projector SHOWwx video…

http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?m=200908

Note: Make sure to click on the video play button

Now tell me, if I need to write a thousand words to explain the difference between the three?

Microvision Will Change Your Visual Experience, Wirelessly!

Anant Goel

[Credit: Andy Rubin, Engineering Director at Google]

Report: Microvision Held Their Annual Shareholder Meeting on September 15, 2009 (Addendum)

Report Addendum:

There are a few more tit bits of information that I have gathered from the various participants. These are essentially answers to one-on-one questions by the individual participants [and not part of the general presentation] and as such may account for inconsistency of some of the answers.

Financing:

Alex said there will most likely be another round of financing at some point.

Past Delays:

The past delays were not the fault of Microvision… but they were in securing the supply pipeline. Also, the move from prototype to mass production unit had some speed bumps…and that is not unexpected.

Embedded PicoP:

Considering the past delays and progress made to-date, an embedded PicoP projector for cell phones by this Christmas won’t happen… next Christmas, maybe! But, what is real is that this thing will move forward, on its own timetable, and it will succeed. However, there are many other embedded solutions [like in laptops] that will happen lot sooner. Expect to see embedded projectors in 2010, and eyewear is slated for 2011.

Product Launch:

The product launch strategy in the near term consists of three parts:

1. Private label marketing by third parties… where Microvision supplies the final product like SWOWwx to the OEMs and they slap on their own logo and use their own packaging. In such a scenario, the OEMs are expected to do their own warranty, service and support.

2. International distribution… presents a stronger market at present, as Asian and European countries take up new technology faster, and at better premiums prices than in the US. Also, the weak dollar makes American goods a compelling bargain to the foreigners.

3. Microvision sells from their website… The motivating factor here seems to be the margins and more importantly… to prove to the large OEM players that Microvision has its supply chain in place and can mass produce a reliable product for the humongous market.

Unique Color Controls:

There are 3 settings on the SHOWwx. One is “Inverse” for Power Point presentations, the second is “Natural” and the third is “Vibrant”…and my god is it vibrant! I couldn't take my eyes off the screen… it was like candy to the eyes. It is a color saturation that I haven't seen on even a TV. It is surreal. Its like the next dimension in color…you've got to see it. [A well deserved credit here to EarthKarma for his post]

Major Player in the Imaging Market Place:

“Laser steering projector is the bread and butter of Microvision for the foreseeable future and we are going to focus on the embedded PicoP to make the company profitable.” Believed to be the words of Alex Tokman?

“Microvision is positioning itself thru patents and IP to be a major player in the image community. He (Alex) said: “Microvision is not going to be a small component provider that can be marginalized by bigger players.”

Alex sees the company as an INTEL type company. He is going to make the company a player in the image industry. That explains the “Image by PicoP” as the slogan chosen for the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx. Please read my post on…

Yes Virginia: “Its Intel Inside… but Image by PicoP.”

Here’s the link…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/yes-virginia-its-intel-inside-but-image.html

Alex mentioned a few things as to why he believes the product [PicoP display engine] is going to be successful…

• Uniqueness: nobody has lasers… nobody is doing what we are doing.

• Thin Form Factor: nobody has our size and nobody can do HD images without getting bigger.

• Longer Battery life: up to 2 hours currently vs. 45 minutes for the competition.

• Infinite focus: nobody else has it.

• Larger screen experience: from 12” to 150” diagonal under certain ambient light conditions.

• Superior small font readability: we are the only one that has 10 pt readable font.

• Uniformity of brightness: Images are uniformly bright from edge to edge, unlike some other competitors.

• No rainbow effect.

• Twice the color gamut (range) of NTSC

• WVGA resolution with sharper image detail

Corning and Osram [the two supply chain partners] are not only improving the laser light technology, but performance and price as well.  The next generation of Green Laser and PicoP display engine will bear this out.

Mass production of laser lights and PicoP display engine is expected to be in 2010.

That pretty much covers what I see in my notes. If I find something else, I’ll get back to you.  Please feel free to comment.

Anant Goel

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: From Here to PicoP Ubiquity

Microvision is a publicly traded company [NASDAQ: MVIS] and has “killer apps”.

It’s the “disruptive technology” called: “Laser based PicoP display engine.” It can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. And if you can ride this technology/social paradigm for long enough [like Intel did with computing], you have a very high probability of being “ubiquitous” [if not out-right industry standard] in the Pico projection space [like Intel is with its “Intel-inside” for CPUs].

In simple terms, paradigm shift is defined as: “A complete change in thinking or belief systems that allow the creation of a new condition previously thought impossible or unacceptable.” Just to make sure we're all on the same page, here's a clear definition of the phrase, which was coined by Thomas Kuhn in his ground-breaking 1962 book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions:

"Think of a Paradigm Shift as a change from one way of thinking to another. It's a revolution, a transformation, a sort of metamorphosis. It does not just 'happen', but rather it is driven by agents of change."

Most of us understand the definition well. However, we tend to miss the true meaning of the statement: “It does not just ‘happen’, but rather it is driven by agents of change”. If you read carefully and do some research you will see: “those agents of change can cause micro level paradigm shifts with-in a macro level paradigm over a period of time. And in order for your product to become ubiquitous [or an industry standard], you must plan and manage for such constantly changing micro level paradigms [with-in a major paradigm] on an on-going basis over an extended period of time. I know it’s a mouthful, so let’s see what all that means first and then we will apply it to PicoP display technology…

One big example is “The Computing Paradigm Shift” that started in early 1980 when the Personal Computer was first introduced. Few years later, in 1993, John Quarterman of Texas Internet Consulting wrote in the Journal of Organizational computing…

“Over the last five years, there has been a shift from centralized to distributed computing. Timesharing and batch systems still have uses, but the large mainframe is no longer the only way to do computing. Networks have spread computing power, access, and costs beyond centralized computer centers. Personal computers have made computing accessible to many new users. Distributed computing attempts to bring the manageability of mainframe computing together with the accessibility of networked computing and the transparency of personal computing.”

According to the definition of paradigm shift, personal computing represents the macro level paradigm shift. Intel rode this major paradigm for a long time and managed it so well that AMD could not catch-up with Intel for over 20 years. And that gave Intel enough time to become ubiquitous with its CPUs in-side all of the major PC manufacturer’s product line. However, by year 2000, AMD caught-up with Intel and that’s when another paradigm shifts [call it micro paradigm] took place with-in the personal computing paradigm. For example, changes taking place within the PC paradigm were so visible…

“At the Intel Developer Forum, fall of 2005, in San Francisco, there were very few individual products or product groups that represented any new breakthrough relevant to silent computing.

But when you consider the entire range of changes in focus, product development, and marketing messages at Intel over the past year, especially as they culminated at the fall 2005 IDF, it does not seem farfetched to speak of a major paradigm shift.”

The paradigm shift I refer to is being driven by Intel in response to technological, competitive and market forces, and it has three major aspects:

•  End of the processor clock race, replaced by multi-core processor development.
• A focus on performance-per-watt and power efficiency.
• New ways of assessing and ranking performance.

Intel is managing this micro paradigm shift well and has been able to still maintain its leadership in the CPUs product space. However, for a while, during the 1996 thru 2002, Intel got too comfortable with its successes with Pentium 4 and it did not see the micro level paradigm shift coming. During this micro paradigm shift from “clock speed” to “multi-core”─ with-in the personal computing paradigm─ AMD made major progress [against Intel] in capturing market share and almost ran away with the keys to the chicken farm.

Another example is: “the change in thinking created by Just-in-Time that views inventory as a liability, not an asset.”

Now let’s talk about PicoP display technology…

Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology can cause major shift in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Example of technology paradigm shift would be:

• Your 2”x 2” screen [on cell phone, smartphone, iPod, iPhone, Blackberry, etc.] now projects to up to 100” high definition quality images [pictures, movies or streaming videos] on any surface… on the fly… always in-focus… and at miniscule power drain on your battery.
• Your 2”x 2” screen [on digital camera, camcorder] now projects up to 100” HD quality image on any surface… on the fly… always in-focus… and at miniscule power drain on your battery.
• Your Laptop comes with built-in projector for up to 100” HD quality image on any surface… on the fly… always in-focus… and at miniscule power drain on your battery.
• High Definition Mobile Projector/ TV that could provide large screen HD TV experience to a billion people in energy starved China and India. In the U.S. and Europe, it could easily replace millions of power hungry LCD/Plasma TVs in every room.
• High Definition Mobile Projector/ TV that could provide large screen HD TV experience on the ceiling for late night video or movie watching from the comfort of your bed.  In the U.S. and Europe, it could easily replace millions of power hungry LCD/Plasma TVs in every bedroom.

Example of social paradigm shift would be: “the dramatic changes in the way, and how often, we view and share multi-media information at work and at play, and network [and collaborate] with associates, friends and family.”

Since the beginning of 2007, Microvision has accomplished quite a few major milestones on its way to becoming a well managed and financially sound company with a technologically feasible product line. Microvision has now partnered with some world class technology companies [including Motorola and Corning] to commercially bring the most disruptive [and paradigm shifting] product line to the market that consists of billions of potential users worldwide.

That’s a mouthful, so let’s break it up in order to make some logical sense and explain where I am going with this…

Microvision’s core PicoP technology is weaved into five product offerings…

1. Vehicle Displays: for better driving experience and safety in automobiles. http://www.microvision.com/vehicle_displays/index.html
2. PicoP Projector Displays: brings big screen to small devices. Project up to 80” HD color projection for applications such as streaming video, movies, digital TV, high resolution photographs, and surfing the net. http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/index.html
3. Wearable Displays: a see-through, high-resolution display platform that enables lightweight and fashionable eyewear displays for mobile devices. Color Eyewear platform allows mobile users to access their personal content and services while keeping their vision of the outside world free and clear, letting mobile users stay on the move. http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/mobile.html
4. Military Displays: is used across various branches of the U.S. Military including the U.S. Army, Air Force, and U.S. Army Reserve. http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/military.html
5. Barcode Scanners: features a patent-pending, low-cost, shock-resistant, silicon MEMS scanning mirror engine. http://www.microvision.com/barcode/index.html

As the saying goes on Wall Street: “Always Do Your Homework before Investing in the Latest Technology”!

The second rule [first being “killer apps”] to investing in emerging technology is simple: “Do your homework and your own due diligence. Before you invest, analyze the entire industry and the company carefully—and don’t buy the stock just because it’s the next big thing.”

The PicoP display engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to Microvision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PicoP display modules to the rest of Microvision product line. That’s why I’m so excited about the PicoP Projector code named SHOWwx that is getting ready for release in 2009…and that it will have a major ripple effect for the rest of Microvision products.

In summary…

Microvision has “killer apps”.

Each of the five commercial products that Microvision is offering [or will be offering soon] use at its core the PicoP display engine technology that has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.

Anant Goel

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/