There may not be any Apple in Microvision future… because Apple has considered but never [yes that’s right] warmed-up to the idea of embedding a pico projector, Microvision’s or anyone else’s, in any of its product line.
That’s a very bold statement and demands due diligence and research to support this argument.
First, watch this Alex Tokman interview video dated September 27, 2010. Watch carefully; from three minutes seven seconds to three minutes thirty five seconds.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MQtsuj1y-I&feature=youtube_gdata_player
AT sounds sour on Apple don’t you think? For someone who used to answer questions about Apple as: “Apple world loves us”… now talks about Apple as a forgone conclusion in the iPhone vs. Google Android battle of the giants. Google Android is a new entrant to the smartphone arena and anyone worth listening to in this technology space would tell you: “it’s too early to tell who would be the leader… if there is going to be one at all in the first place?”
AT sounds sour on Apple and there may be a good reason for it.
Vast majority of technologists with-in Apple camp are convinced that pico projection technology is not mature enough to risk the integrity of their established technology offering… like computing, MP3 player, or mobile me platform [iPad, iPhone]. Unless there is an Apple product genre that offers pico projection as a primary function… there is very little chance of a pico projector making its way into the existing Apple product line? Unfortunately, that is not the only issue.
Another issue with an embedded pico projector inside any of the Apple product line, according to my sources, are the concern for primary product reliability and common mode failure caused by or because of the embedded pico projector functionality.
The reasoning goes like this...
“Pico projection is relatively new technology; with very little, if any, proven performance and reliability track record. If the pico projector goes on the fritz, the primary functionality of the iPad, iPhone or iWhatever is lost and the entire unit must be repaired or replaced”
That does not sound too good for embedded pico projectors for the Apple product line… at least for now.
However, all is not lost.
Smart companies have figured out the way around Apple’s position on embedded pico projectors. They are coming out with hand held pico projectors as an accessory unit for the Apple products─ like Microvision SHOWwx for one example, or as a docking station for the Apple mobile me products [iPod, iPhone, iPad] with added bells and whistles.
Anant Goel
Disclaimer: These comments are author’s personal observations and opinions and are based on his own research conducted recently.
Showing posts with label Macworld 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Macworld 2010. Show all posts
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Microvision: Breakeven Expected at the End of 1st Qtr 2011
For the first time in a long time I’m very confident that Microvision could have the breakeven operation by the end of 1st Qtr of 2011. And that’s much earlier than that projected by Oppenheimer in their recent report update of February 2010.
I have followed this company for nearly 12 years... but did not start investing in it until 2007, because they did not have a plan for building revenue until they brought on Alex Tokman. Microvision had all the symptoms of being an interesting science project with very little else to do with monetizing the technology… but all that changed after the 2006 re-organization when Tokman was appointed as the CEO. Many of you would agree that he is not there to build a science experiment… he is there to build a solid business based on solid technology, wrapped up as tightly in IP as a 200+ patent portfolio would allow.
The reason I mention Oppenheimer report as the point of reference… because, it is perhaps the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis of Microvision’s business and financial model by an institutional analyst. Even though I don’t agree with their projections of Microvision revenues and profit margins, I don’t see any reason to pick a fight over numbers that none of us can be hundred percent sure… one way or the other.
One more thing…
Recently, someone suggested “brevity as a virtue”. So, from now on, unless I’m writing the next chapter to my book, I plan on presenting my findings, research, analysis and conclusions in this very virtuous manner... that is, as briefly as possible.
So, here we go...
There is confluence of evidence that Microvision has launched its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US market on March 8th, 2010. It is also evident that SHOWwx is being sold in the US; directly from Microvision website...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/index.html
Now, the next question is about profit margins, revenues and the timeline for operational “breakeven”... where the operating profits sustain the operating cost on a monthly basis.
Looking at all the available information─ the annual report, the latest earnings report and the Q&A from the most recent earnings conference call ─ my analysis shows the breakeven Qtr as Q1 of 2011.
Here’s why…
First Qtr of 2011
Total Revenue: $30.95 million
Total Operating Expenses: $11.975 million
Net Income from Continuing Operations: $500,000
Income Tax Expenses: $0
Minority Interest/Other Expenses: $0
Total Non Recurring Events: $0
Net Income Applicable to Common: $500,000
Shares Outstanding: 90.136 million… includes 5 million share worth additional funding in August 2010 and the rest for stock options.
Earnings Per Share: $0.006
I am not going to attempt to persuade you; towards my way of thinking. However, I just feel that this is a very different point in time for Microvision, where a real product has been launched… and that will change the way information and entertainment is displayed in the mobile world. There are other companies that are getting these pico products out there... but, I see their product introduction to the market as the “teaser horses". And as “Sam” from the Yahoo Message Board says…
“... if you know anything about horse breeding; you do not want to come back as a teaser horse. Sure you get into the breeding shed, but even if the mare accepts the jump; poor Picho still loses out as he's fitted with a leather apron to ensure that his efforts, in advance of the waiting stud, remain chaste.”
Is Microvision the "stud" of the stable?
Well, we just have to wait and see when we get our hands on that SHOWwx on order!
When all is said and done, in the end, I see Microvision’s laser PDEs to dominate pico projection technology… and I have seen nothing from any of the other companies that would dissuade me from this view.
Do the delays frustrate the heck out of me?
Yes!
Do I wish I had my own SHOWwx months ago to use in presentations...and gift them to my friends and family?
Yes!
As far as missed deadlines go, the biggest issue was Corning misguided judgment that they would have green lasers in quantity 2 years ago… a major failure in projecting the production timeline. I, for one did not drain my brain worrying about the exact definition of the end of summer launch in 2009. I have seen new product releases before and I am well aware that if there is a situation where Murphy's Law might apply… then the September 2009 launch was one of them.
I’m very encouraged that Corning has finally overcome the G-1000 green laser production issues… and the second generation G-2000 is coming along nicely for production in Q4 of 2010. I am also very encouraged that OSRAM is making good progress and has started shipping small quantities of green laser to Microvision. It will not surprise me at all, if Microvision were to announce the Osram shipping good news any day soon.
If Osram (and Corning) can overcome the last mile quality production hurdles, we will see validation in a cell phone… with product available in the market by early 2011. Frankly, I do not care who is or was first to market. I think we will see some announcements before the end of April/May this year to help support the stock price and perhaps even push up the pps to next level… in the $5 to $6 range.
Some of you may think that my analysis is somewhat pessimistic… while the others may consider it way too optimistic. I can understand your rationale… because to this day, I still battle with my optimism and pessimism on a daily basis.
I would not say that the current stock pps is so great that it represents the exuberance of the year 2000… the Dot.com era. Nor does it represent the enthusiasm of a long waited product validation and launch. The current price, I believe, is based on a combination of facts that are still not very clear and people hedging bets that they will reap a significant reward by investing at lower levels. The volume has been up and I cannot detect any significant profit taking at this point. The MVIS story has substance in product and potential for the long term investors.
Obviously there are several companies that have committed to MVIS in the form of contracts to distribute the SHOWwx. I would find it hard to believe that these companies would make such a commitment without some degree of due diligence in both the supply and demand equation. Without going into details, let me say that I do not think a price of $550 for SHOWwx is too much… although it is a lot.
Profit from the SHOWwx is a short term cash flow gig and has never been the driving factor for the company's long term goal. We all know that the embedded PicoP─ in all things digital─ is the “holy grail”. However, that thinking may be changing considering the fact that SHOWwx does have many may applications and once second generation green laser production is up and the cost goes down the SHOWwx could be very profitable… especially when it is sold directly from the company’s on-line store.
I strongly believe that Microvision could be on its way to breakeven operation… as early as at the end of Q1 of 2011.
Anant Goel
PS: Thanks to "Sam" from YMB for letting me use some of his words and quotes.
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
I have followed this company for nearly 12 years... but did not start investing in it until 2007, because they did not have a plan for building revenue until they brought on Alex Tokman. Microvision had all the symptoms of being an interesting science project with very little else to do with monetizing the technology… but all that changed after the 2006 re-organization when Tokman was appointed as the CEO. Many of you would agree that he is not there to build a science experiment… he is there to build a solid business based on solid technology, wrapped up as tightly in IP as a 200+ patent portfolio would allow.
The reason I mention Oppenheimer report as the point of reference… because, it is perhaps the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis of Microvision’s business and financial model by an institutional analyst. Even though I don’t agree with their projections of Microvision revenues and profit margins, I don’t see any reason to pick a fight over numbers that none of us can be hundred percent sure… one way or the other.
One more thing…
Recently, someone suggested “brevity as a virtue”. So, from now on, unless I’m writing the next chapter to my book, I plan on presenting my findings, research, analysis and conclusions in this very virtuous manner... that is, as briefly as possible.
So, here we go...
There is confluence of evidence that Microvision has launched its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US market on March 8th, 2010. It is also evident that SHOWwx is being sold in the US; directly from Microvision website...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/index.html
Now, the next question is about profit margins, revenues and the timeline for operational “breakeven”... where the operating profits sustain the operating cost on a monthly basis.
Looking at all the available information─ the annual report, the latest earnings report and the Q&A from the most recent earnings conference call ─ my analysis shows the breakeven Qtr as Q1 of 2011.
Here’s why…
First Qtr of 2011
Total Revenue: $30.95 million
- Contract Revenue: $955,000… based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 15% per Qtr growth
- Product Revenue: $30,000,000… based on 60,000 SHOWwx sold in Q1, 2011 at $500 bundled price with VGA doc.
- Cost of Contract Revenue: $487,000
- Cost of Product Revenue: $18,000,000… COG at 60% [40% margins with green laser cost at $90 or less]. Assumes direct & affiliate on-line store sales.
Total Operating Expenses: $11.975 million
- Research & Development: $7.806 million… based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 1% growth.
- Sales, General & Admin: $4.169 million…based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 2% growth.
- Others: $0
Net Income from Continuing Operations: $500,000
- Other Income/Expenses Net: $0
- Earnings before Interest & Taxes: $494,000
- Interest Income: $24,000
- Interest Expenses: $18,000
Income Tax Expenses: $0
Minority Interest/Other Expenses: $0
Total Non Recurring Events: $0
- Discontinued Operations: $0
- Extraordinary Items: $0
- Effect of Accounting Changes: $0
- Other Items: $0
Net Income Applicable to Common: $500,000
Shares Outstanding: 90.136 million… includes 5 million share worth additional funding in August 2010 and the rest for stock options.
Earnings Per Share: $0.006
I am not going to attempt to persuade you; towards my way of thinking. However, I just feel that this is a very different point in time for Microvision, where a real product has been launched… and that will change the way information and entertainment is displayed in the mobile world. There are other companies that are getting these pico products out there... but, I see their product introduction to the market as the “teaser horses". And as “Sam” from the Yahoo Message Board says…
“... if you know anything about horse breeding; you do not want to come back as a teaser horse. Sure you get into the breeding shed, but even if the mare accepts the jump; poor Picho still loses out as he's fitted with a leather apron to ensure that his efforts, in advance of the waiting stud, remain chaste.”
Is Microvision the "stud" of the stable?
Well, we just have to wait and see when we get our hands on that SHOWwx on order!
When all is said and done, in the end, I see Microvision’s laser PDEs to dominate pico projection technology… and I have seen nothing from any of the other companies that would dissuade me from this view.
Do the delays frustrate the heck out of me?
Yes!
Do I wish I had my own SHOWwx months ago to use in presentations...and gift them to my friends and family?
Yes!
As far as missed deadlines go, the biggest issue was Corning misguided judgment that they would have green lasers in quantity 2 years ago… a major failure in projecting the production timeline. I, for one did not drain my brain worrying about the exact definition of the end of summer launch in 2009. I have seen new product releases before and I am well aware that if there is a situation where Murphy's Law might apply… then the September 2009 launch was one of them.
I’m very encouraged that Corning has finally overcome the G-1000 green laser production issues… and the second generation G-2000 is coming along nicely for production in Q4 of 2010. I am also very encouraged that OSRAM is making good progress and has started shipping small quantities of green laser to Microvision. It will not surprise me at all, if Microvision were to announce the Osram shipping good news any day soon.
If Osram (and Corning) can overcome the last mile quality production hurdles, we will see validation in a cell phone… with product available in the market by early 2011. Frankly, I do not care who is or was first to market. I think we will see some announcements before the end of April/May this year to help support the stock price and perhaps even push up the pps to next level… in the $5 to $6 range.
Some of you may think that my analysis is somewhat pessimistic… while the others may consider it way too optimistic. I can understand your rationale… because to this day, I still battle with my optimism and pessimism on a daily basis.
I would not say that the current stock pps is so great that it represents the exuberance of the year 2000… the Dot.com era. Nor does it represent the enthusiasm of a long waited product validation and launch. The current price, I believe, is based on a combination of facts that are still not very clear and people hedging bets that they will reap a significant reward by investing at lower levels. The volume has been up and I cannot detect any significant profit taking at this point. The MVIS story has substance in product and potential for the long term investors.
Obviously there are several companies that have committed to MVIS in the form of contracts to distribute the SHOWwx. I would find it hard to believe that these companies would make such a commitment without some degree of due diligence in both the supply and demand equation. Without going into details, let me say that I do not think a price of $550 for SHOWwx is too much… although it is a lot.
Profit from the SHOWwx is a short term cash flow gig and has never been the driving factor for the company's long term goal. We all know that the embedded PicoP─ in all things digital─ is the “holy grail”. However, that thinking may be changing considering the fact that SHOWwx does have many may applications and once second generation green laser production is up and the cost goes down the SHOWwx could be very profitable… especially when it is sold directly from the company’s on-line store.
I strongly believe that Microvision could be on its way to breakeven operation… as early as at the end of Q1 of 2011.
Anant Goel
PS: Thanks to "Sam" from YMB for letting me use some of his words and quotes.
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Pico Projectors Hit the Commercial Market
That is the title of a trade journal article published by Electronics Weekly…
Pico projectors hit the commercial market
Richard Wilson
Tuesday 16 March 2010 11:18
Pico projectors are set for a massive jump in shipments during the next four years as they hit a number of commercial markets including mobile phones, according to analyst iSuppli.
Shipments will rise to more than three million units in 2013, up from less than 50,000 units in 2009.
In the middle of last year, Texas Instruments demonstrated 3D-ready projectors and lamp-free data projectors based on the company's DLP chip technology.
The chip uses an array of millions of micro-mirrors which can be switched at high speed, which enables the simultaneous display of left-eye and right-eye images required for the brain to create a 3D picture.
It is the rapid refresh rate of the DLP chip which supports 3D viewing.
According to TI, as many as 30 manufacturers will have projectors on the market soon, including BenQ, InFocus, LightSpeed, Mitsubishi, Optoma, Sharp and ViewSonic.
Continues…
First, here’s the link to the article that I’m talking about…
http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/03/16/48208/pico-projectors-hit-the-commercial-market.htm
This article is so superficial in its coverage that it not only lacks depth but also the breadth in its coverage. What surprised me most were the many inaccuracies in the article and shockingly there was no mention of Microvision that launched the world’s first laser based PicoP™ projector SHOWwx in September of 2009… and most recently, on March 8th, Microvision started selling their laser based pico projector to the US customers.
Don’t you think it is shocking to see that the main author [Richard Wilson] and iSuppli projection analyst Sanju Khatri wrote this article about pico projectors but completely ignored the existence of Microvision and its laser pico projector SHOWwx? I’m sure you know, like the millions of Internet savvy global consumers do, that Microvision’s laser pico projector SHOWwx won the CES 2010 “Last Gadget Standing” award in January… and the MacWorld 2010 “Best of Show” award in February.
Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP Display Engine technology exists today and beats the competition from 3M [LED/LcoS technology] and TI [LED/DLP technology] in most all respects.
First take a look at quality of the projected images from SHOWwx and then look at its specifications… and you will see why Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP projector is so much better than the competition.
Here’s the link to SHOWwx video clip…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0
Here’s the side by side comparison with the competition…
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
Here’s the list of differentiating features of SHOWwx…
http://www.microvision.com/showwx/specs.html
In the embedded market space, I don’t see any of the competitors coming close to Microvision in this race… not even Taxes Instruments with their power guzzling million-micromirrors based pico projector. The likes of 3M and Displaytech will never get down to acceptable levels of size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost requirements… as they will have the “gating issues”. Pico projectors that use million micromirrors or LcoS panels [with lenses and optics] just can’t cut the mustard in terms of physical size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost.
I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection space... like Displaytech with FLCOS, 3M with LcoS, and TI with DLP technologies.
However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.
Microvision’s laser PicoP Display Engine will lead the rat pack because of the following:
• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.
• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) in the standalone version will make the competition at par with Microvision’s SHOWwx... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?
Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine produces virtually zero heat due to lasers being used as the light source and also due to on/off switching of lasers during dark image segments. Competing pico projection technologies of others produce enough waste heat to cook eggs... sunny side up for sure.
• “A wide angle view means that Microvision’s PDE can show a wider screen at closer distance!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's PDE you get…
"A wider image [80 inch from 7 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus."
• Laser based PicoP Display Engines will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.
• Microvision’s PDE has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.
• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based PicoP Display Engine do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.
• Microvision’s PDE can go from 12” to 200” diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.
• Microvision’s PDE projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.
• Microvision’ PDE projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.
• Microvision’s PDE has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.
• Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser [G-2000] from Corning.
After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…
"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."
Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/
Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx [and PDEs for embedded applications] with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Pico projectors hit the commercial market
Richard Wilson
Tuesday 16 March 2010 11:18
Pico projectors are set for a massive jump in shipments during the next four years as they hit a number of commercial markets including mobile phones, according to analyst iSuppli.
Shipments will rise to more than three million units in 2013, up from less than 50,000 units in 2009.
In the middle of last year, Texas Instruments demonstrated 3D-ready projectors and lamp-free data projectors based on the company's DLP chip technology.
The chip uses an array of millions of micro-mirrors which can be switched at high speed, which enables the simultaneous display of left-eye and right-eye images required for the brain to create a 3D picture.
It is the rapid refresh rate of the DLP chip which supports 3D viewing.
According to TI, as many as 30 manufacturers will have projectors on the market soon, including BenQ, InFocus, LightSpeed, Mitsubishi, Optoma, Sharp and ViewSonic.
Continues…
*****
After reading this article, I could not help wonder if this was a trade journal article on the subject of pico projectors or an infomercial for Texas Instruments, Samsung, Mitsubishi and other advertisers of Electronics Weekly. First, here’s the link to the article that I’m talking about…
http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/03/16/48208/pico-projectors-hit-the-commercial-market.htm
This article is so superficial in its coverage that it not only lacks depth but also the breadth in its coverage. What surprised me most were the many inaccuracies in the article and shockingly there was no mention of Microvision that launched the world’s first laser based PicoP™ projector SHOWwx in September of 2009… and most recently, on March 8th, Microvision started selling their laser based pico projector to the US customers.
Don’t you think it is shocking to see that the main author [Richard Wilson] and iSuppli projection analyst Sanju Khatri wrote this article about pico projectors but completely ignored the existence of Microvision and its laser pico projector SHOWwx? I’m sure you know, like the millions of Internet savvy global consumers do, that Microvision’s laser pico projector SHOWwx won the CES 2010 “Last Gadget Standing” award in January… and the MacWorld 2010 “Best of Show” award in February.
Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP Display Engine technology exists today and beats the competition from 3M [LED/LcoS technology] and TI [LED/DLP technology] in most all respects.
First take a look at quality of the projected images from SHOWwx and then look at its specifications… and you will see why Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP projector is so much better than the competition.
Here’s the link to SHOWwx video clip…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0
Here’s the side by side comparison with the competition…
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
Here’s the list of differentiating features of SHOWwx…
http://www.microvision.com/showwx/specs.html
In the embedded market space, I don’t see any of the competitors coming close to Microvision in this race… not even Taxes Instruments with their power guzzling million-micromirrors based pico projector. The likes of 3M and Displaytech will never get down to acceptable levels of size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost requirements… as they will have the “gating issues”. Pico projectors that use million micromirrors or LcoS panels [with lenses and optics] just can’t cut the mustard in terms of physical size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost.
I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection space... like Displaytech with FLCOS, 3M with LcoS, and TI with DLP technologies.
However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.
Microvision’s laser PicoP Display Engine will lead the rat pack because of the following:
• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.
• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) in the standalone version will make the competition at par with Microvision’s SHOWwx... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?
Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine produces virtually zero heat due to lasers being used as the light source and also due to on/off switching of lasers during dark image segments. Competing pico projection technologies of others produce enough waste heat to cook eggs... sunny side up for sure.
• “A wide angle view means that Microvision’s PDE can show a wider screen at closer distance!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's PDE you get…
"A wider image [80 inch from 7 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus."
• Laser based PicoP Display Engines will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.
• Microvision’s PDE has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.
• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based PicoP Display Engine do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.
• Microvision’s PDE can go from 12” to 200” diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.
• Microvision’s PDE projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.
• Microvision’ PDE projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.
• Microvision’s PDE has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.
• Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser [G-2000] from Corning.
After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…
"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."
Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/
Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx [and PDEs for embedded applications] with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Microvision: Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010
Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On Monday March 8, 2010, 4:20 pm EST
Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010
Company Announces U.S. Introduction of SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector, Availability of Second Commercial Supply for Green Laser, New Purchase Orders, and Additions to Management Team
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2009 and its plans for 2010.
Continued…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100308006744&newsLang=en
Last three years, especially the year 2009, has been the most frustrating period for Microvision corporate management… mainly due to delays caused by over optimistic green laser production schedule by Corning. However, after 30 months of delay due to technical and production problems, the issues are finally behind us and Microvision has officially launched the world first laser based PicoP projector in the US today.
After the market close on March 8th, Microvision management presented the quarterly/yearly earnings report. After looking at the details of SHOWwx laser PicoP projector launch from this morning and then listing to earnings conference call, I could not help but feel that today is the day when Microvision really went public with an IPO.
Microvision: Goes Public with an IPO… March 8th 2010
Now that I have your attention, consider this…
If Microvision were to have an IPO right after the SHOWwx launch in the US today followed by a very bullish earnings conference call… the IPO price would be more like $20 if not higher.
We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.
Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, huge backlog, ramping-up production forecasts, improving margins, and glowing recognition by industry; like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.60.
Looks like the shorts have you all spooked, doubting yourself, and in knots over in-decision.
One of the issues, if you would call it that, the shorts will “harp on” and have you believe is about low future revenues and insignificant margins.
Well, let’s set the record straight here, shall we…
Many folks don’t realize that the green laser unit forecasts Alex presented at the CC; they do not include any green laser contribution from Osram. Osram green lasers have been validated but production quantities are not yet shipping in any significant quantities… and as such are not part of the unit number forecast presented at the conference call.
Osram green lasers are the surprise factor; both in terms of higher production volumes─ higher than what Alex has projected from Corning and dramatic overall cost reduction due to cheaper Osram green lasers.
The good news─ in the short term, that Alex talked about in his closing remarks, in my opinion, is all about Osram starting to ship production quantities of green lasers as early as the last week of March. Osram green lasers are much cheaper and have much better yields. That’s the surprise factor that Alex alluded to in his closing remarks at the CC.
Be aware of the competitors, shorts and unscrupulous stock traders; when they bash the SHOWwx revenue and profit margins to justify their agenda… whatever form or shape it takes.
Consider this…
• Profit margins on SHOWwx that have been shipped are better than what you may think [or are made to believe] by just looking at 4th Qtr “product sale revenue” vs. the “product COG” numbers. First, the initial batch of product shipped is very small… few hundreds at the most, and that is not a large enough sample to base future trends.
Second, the cost of about 50 or so demo units in the hands and homes of Microvision executives has cost but no revenue. That hurts the revenue numbers and skews the COG numbers as much higher than they really are.
• Profit margins and revenues will dramatically increase─ over and above what they truly are at present, as soon as Osram starts shipping their better and cheaper green lasers in production quantities… as early as the end of March.
• Profit margins are dramatically higher [over 300%] on the Limited Edition SHOWwx that are for sale in the US today.
• Profit margins are substantially higher [over 100%] on the Commercial Edition SHOWwx that will be for sale in the US on March 24th.
There is no better way to say it, than to say it as it really is…
“Alex Tokman, in his closing remarks at the CC, alluded to two pieces of good news coming up: one in the short term [like in weeks] and the other in the mid term."
The short term good news, in my opinion, is about Osram shipping production quantities of their green lasers to Microvision… and that will more than double the forecasted SHOWwx quantities that can be shipped at much better profit margins.
In closing…
Be aware of the competitors, shorts, manipulators, and the unscrupulous operators that would like you to believe that the future revenues and profit margins as insignificant… because, by having you believe that and then manipulate you to sell would serve their agenda to short Microvision.
So why don’t you guys just wake-up, believe in yourselves and stop playing into the hands of unscrupulous shorts.
Be an educated investor and go about making some serious money in the near future.
Stop playing for nickels and dimes… only kids do that with too much time on their hands.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On Monday March 8, 2010, 4:20 pm EST
Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010
Company Announces U.S. Introduction of SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector, Availability of Second Commercial Supply for Green Laser, New Purchase Orders, and Additions to Management Team
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2009 and its plans for 2010.
Continued…
*****
Here’s the link to the full earnings report…http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100308006744&newsLang=en
Last three years, especially the year 2009, has been the most frustrating period for Microvision corporate management… mainly due to delays caused by over optimistic green laser production schedule by Corning. However, after 30 months of delay due to technical and production problems, the issues are finally behind us and Microvision has officially launched the world first laser based PicoP projector in the US today.
After the market close on March 8th, Microvision management presented the quarterly/yearly earnings report. After looking at the details of SHOWwx laser PicoP projector launch from this morning and then listing to earnings conference call, I could not help but feel that today is the day when Microvision really went public with an IPO.
Microvision: Goes Public with an IPO… March 8th 2010
Now that I have your attention, consider this…
If Microvision were to have an IPO right after the SHOWwx launch in the US today followed by a very bullish earnings conference call… the IPO price would be more like $20 if not higher.
We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.
Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, huge backlog, ramping-up production forecasts, improving margins, and glowing recognition by industry; like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.60.
Looks like the shorts have you all spooked, doubting yourself, and in knots over in-decision.
One of the issues, if you would call it that, the shorts will “harp on” and have you believe is about low future revenues and insignificant margins.
Well, let’s set the record straight here, shall we…
Many folks don’t realize that the green laser unit forecasts Alex presented at the CC; they do not include any green laser contribution from Osram. Osram green lasers have been validated but production quantities are not yet shipping in any significant quantities… and as such are not part of the unit number forecast presented at the conference call.
Osram green lasers are the surprise factor; both in terms of higher production volumes─ higher than what Alex has projected from Corning and dramatic overall cost reduction due to cheaper Osram green lasers.
The good news─ in the short term, that Alex talked about in his closing remarks, in my opinion, is all about Osram starting to ship production quantities of green lasers as early as the last week of March. Osram green lasers are much cheaper and have much better yields. That’s the surprise factor that Alex alluded to in his closing remarks at the CC.
Be aware of the competitors, shorts and unscrupulous stock traders; when they bash the SHOWwx revenue and profit margins to justify their agenda… whatever form or shape it takes.
Consider this…
• Profit margins on SHOWwx that have been shipped are better than what you may think [or are made to believe] by just looking at 4th Qtr “product sale revenue” vs. the “product COG” numbers. First, the initial batch of product shipped is very small… few hundreds at the most, and that is not a large enough sample to base future trends.
Second, the cost of about 50 or so demo units in the hands and homes of Microvision executives has cost but no revenue. That hurts the revenue numbers and skews the COG numbers as much higher than they really are.
• Profit margins and revenues will dramatically increase─ over and above what they truly are at present, as soon as Osram starts shipping their better and cheaper green lasers in production quantities… as early as the end of March.
• Profit margins are dramatically higher [over 300%] on the Limited Edition SHOWwx that are for sale in the US today.
• Profit margins are substantially higher [over 100%] on the Commercial Edition SHOWwx that will be for sale in the US on March 24th.
There is no better way to say it, than to say it as it really is…
“Alex Tokman, in his closing remarks at the CC, alluded to two pieces of good news coming up: one in the short term [like in weeks] and the other in the mid term."
The short term good news, in my opinion, is about Osram shipping production quantities of their green lasers to Microvision… and that will more than double the forecasted SHOWwx quantities that can be shipped at much better profit margins.
In closing…
Be aware of the competitors, shorts, manipulators, and the unscrupulous operators that would like you to believe that the future revenues and profit margins as insignificant… because, by having you believe that and then manipulate you to sell would serve their agenda to short Microvision.
So why don’t you guys just wake-up, believe in yourselves and stop playing into the hands of unscrupulous shorts.
Be an educated investor and go about making some serious money in the near future.
Stop playing for nickels and dimes… only kids do that with too much time on their hands.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Microvision: Stock at the End of its Transition Phase
Every growth stock falls into 1 of 3 categories…
1. The Romance Phase
2. The Transition Phase
3. The Reality Phase
Most growth stocks tend to pass through three phases of growth… romance, transition and reality. By knowing which phase a stock is in, you can quickly determine whether the profits are just beginning… or the well is drying up fast. Needless to say, this can make the decision to buy, sell or hold significantly easier. And its decisions like these that will make or break your success in investing.
You may say that in case of Microvision, the romance is gone and the transition is at an end, and the reality of situation [green laser issue] has become clear. And in your opinion in this phase, the company’s entire financial future depends on the availability and the cost of green lasers. Since the company has made no effort to incorporate any other type of light source to power its PicoP Display Engine, the core of its entire product line, it is fair to say that Microvision will thrive or perish by the green laser sword.
Some of you have lived through the romance phase, which peaked in year 2000 with the MVIS stock trading well over $63… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology. Those that did not cash out after the romance phase, the most profitable phase, and are still holding the MVIS stock and they have battle scars to prove their passage through the three phases of growth in the life of a company. Now we are at the tail end of the transition phase, when blemishes appear and public’s perception of the company starts to diminish.
If you feel that we all have made a mistake in believing and staying too long in MVIS stock and are in the same boat at this point in time? We all have, for whatever the reason, stayed little too long in this stock and are now paying the price of dealing with uncertain future and muted enthusiasm of a product launch… that revolves around a core component from green laser supply chain! If that’s what you believe, and can think with a cool head and not point fingers, then continue reading, as I would like to share some facts, figures and analysis?
Microvision story is not over yet. It is, however, certainly the end of the romance phase and we are now successfully transitioning to the reality phase. If you dig deeper, you will find that it is just the beginning that is based on reality of Microvision’s financial and cost structure and will resume its momentum to renewed success based on improving availability and cheaper cost of green lasers… the Achilles heel to Microvision’s financial success. This may sound like a wish full conclusion to Microvision saga… but fortunately that happens to be the conclusion of my analysis based on findings of facts and figures.
So stay tuned and let’s continue with our analysis…
The Romance Phase: is the most profitable phase by far and is the one that you’ll want to focus on… that is, if you were lucky enough to be around during the early life stages of Microvision in year 2000. It’s in this phase that a fortune can be amassed very quickly, long before most investors are even aware that the company exists. Yet at some point, the stock’s price and its Relative Performance (RP) line will reach all-time highs. This tells you the Romance in the stock has peaked. This is when most analysts, if there are any following the stock, would recommend selling it. In case of MVIS stock, the first Romance peak took place in March of year 2000 when the stock traded in the $63 plus range.
The second Romance peak took place in June of 2007 when the management announced “Agreement with Motorola”. At the height of this Romance peak, the MVIS stock traded in the $6 range. It happened too quick [in less than two months] and the RP line indicated that it had not peaked and there was lot more momentum left for the stock to go still higher... to over $10 or so we believed. Also, the pico projector sector was just in initial stages of taking-off... as we know is happening right now. It took us a few months to realize the issues with SHG green laser technology and the resulting cost and supply constraints.
In hindsight, we may call it our greed that made us stay in this stock too long or may be it was our collective belief that there was more good news to come. How could it all start, take-off and crash in less than three months? Well, it did and the reasons are too well known to all of us so I won’t repeat them here.
The Transition Phase: can last from few months to several years. In case of Microvision, the Transition Phase started in September of 2007 when I first wrote about the technical issues that Corning was having with their SHG green lasers. This is when the blemishes appeared and the public’s perception of the stock started to diminish. It’s at this stage in the life of a company, like Microvision, that the company’s technology may fumble, the earnings may stumble [if there were any], the cash flow may turn negative [or cash burn may accelerate], the financing may disappear, the flaws in business growth strategy start showing-up in negative revenue growth [or as loss of revenue] and other issues start popping-up such as legal, financial, and key employee departures, etc.
Sooner or later the issues will get resolved and the company’s earnings will grow again… but only after the stock has bottomed and then, after an excruciating period, has started its next major advance.
Now we are at the tail end of the “Transition Phase”. During the Transition Phase, the blemishes [like technical problems with green lasers] appeared and public’s perception of the company diminished to such low levels as to bring the MVIS stock down to $0.80 in March 2009.
Many of the red-hot lovers who romanced MVIS on the way up have left the stock, and it's their selling pressures, driven by reduced perceptions, that have been pushing the MVIS stock down… and the bear market of 2008 hasn't helped, either. Every time a diehard long who had sworn to hold the stock forever gives up in disgust, the stock is pushed a little lower.
It's not the company's fault that Corning had repeatedly failed to deliver on the SHG green laser, a core component for making laser PicoP projectors. If the delay was reasonable, and not the 30 months, the MVIS stock would have traded rationally, based on earnings from a potentially gigantic global market. This stock would have been nowhere near as low as the 80 cents last March, and it would be certainly traded higher now than it currently is… at $2.69 and excruciating to hold it at this level.
But stock prices are determined by investors. And investors are people. People who fall-in and fall-out of love! People who buy with visions of profits and sell in disgust when their dreams are dashed! People who drive stocks to irrational heights and then sell them to irrational depths! That's what makes investing a challenge ... and very profitable, if you know what you're doing.
The Reality Phase: With Romance gone and the transition at end, the reality of the situation has become clear. In this final phase, the Reality Phase, the company could have taken one of the two roads… the road to renewed success… or the road to oblivion.
Microvision has struggled for over the last 30 months to deal with the core component─ green laser─ supply issue during the Transition Phase. All through this phase, Microvision managed to stay funded and fully staffed to aggressively pursue product development and continue with research to enlarge its intellectual property rights.
Finally, Corning has resolved its green laser yield issues and is now ramping production. Osram is coming on-line rapidly to become the second source of SHG green lasers… with a better, cheaper and higher yielding product. During the Transition Phase, Microvision management made some hard decisions to control cost, proactively raise funding─ even though it was considered unpopular with the investors, and aggressively pursued R&D to enlarge its IP portfolio and took measures to protect its intellectual property.
Over this last cycle, in my opinion, the MVIS stock price has bottomed at $1.96. The Transition Phase is over and the Reality Phase has kicked-in, or it will on March 8th after the earnings conference call.
It’s then; when analysis of the stock should become a little easier for investors who base their decisions on fundamentals. If the company's sales and earnings are growing, as I expect them to do very rapidly, the stock will rise, too. But it will do it in a far more rational manner, reflecting the reality of the company's sales and earnings growth potential over the next few years.
Before I leave you, consider this…
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “Validation Phase”. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders─ from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator, represent …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.
• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size, always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications, and no waste heat generation.
• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.
• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.
• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments… and the waste heat, hot enough to cook eggs sunny-side-up.
• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 200 issued and filed patents and with many more to come.
• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.
• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.
• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.
• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.
Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.
Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…
Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:
First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...
http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf
After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increase in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.
Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…
• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]
• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]
• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units
• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units
• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine
• Revenue: $4 billion
• Net Profit Margin: 40%
• Net Profit: $1.6 billion
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]
• Interest Expense: $0 million
• Interest Income: $20 million
• Tax: $220million
• Depreciation: non cash and very small
• Amortization: non cash and very small
• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion
• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]
• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company
• Price Per Share: $390 per share
In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 4 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.
Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP Display Engines will be larger than the supply."
This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place [like selling SHOWwx and its derivatives directly to US consumers] that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.
It’s ironic how we as investors act sometimes…
We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.
Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, and recognition by industry like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.69.
What, am I missing something here?
Don't tell me it has something to do with hot milk!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
1. The Romance Phase
2. The Transition Phase
3. The Reality Phase
Most growth stocks tend to pass through three phases of growth… romance, transition and reality. By knowing which phase a stock is in, you can quickly determine whether the profits are just beginning… or the well is drying up fast. Needless to say, this can make the decision to buy, sell or hold significantly easier. And its decisions like these that will make or break your success in investing.
You may say that in case of Microvision, the romance is gone and the transition is at an end, and the reality of situation [green laser issue] has become clear. And in your opinion in this phase, the company’s entire financial future depends on the availability and the cost of green lasers. Since the company has made no effort to incorporate any other type of light source to power its PicoP Display Engine, the core of its entire product line, it is fair to say that Microvision will thrive or perish by the green laser sword.
Some of you have lived through the romance phase, which peaked in year 2000 with the MVIS stock trading well over $63… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology. Those that did not cash out after the romance phase, the most profitable phase, and are still holding the MVIS stock and they have battle scars to prove their passage through the three phases of growth in the life of a company. Now we are at the tail end of the transition phase, when blemishes appear and public’s perception of the company starts to diminish.
If you feel that we all have made a mistake in believing and staying too long in MVIS stock and are in the same boat at this point in time? We all have, for whatever the reason, stayed little too long in this stock and are now paying the price of dealing with uncertain future and muted enthusiasm of a product launch… that revolves around a core component from green laser supply chain! If that’s what you believe, and can think with a cool head and not point fingers, then continue reading, as I would like to share some facts, figures and analysis?
Microvision story is not over yet. It is, however, certainly the end of the romance phase and we are now successfully transitioning to the reality phase. If you dig deeper, you will find that it is just the beginning that is based on reality of Microvision’s financial and cost structure and will resume its momentum to renewed success based on improving availability and cheaper cost of green lasers… the Achilles heel to Microvision’s financial success. This may sound like a wish full conclusion to Microvision saga… but fortunately that happens to be the conclusion of my analysis based on findings of facts and figures.
So stay tuned and let’s continue with our analysis…
The Romance Phase: is the most profitable phase by far and is the one that you’ll want to focus on… that is, if you were lucky enough to be around during the early life stages of Microvision in year 2000. It’s in this phase that a fortune can be amassed very quickly, long before most investors are even aware that the company exists. Yet at some point, the stock’s price and its Relative Performance (RP) line will reach all-time highs. This tells you the Romance in the stock has peaked. This is when most analysts, if there are any following the stock, would recommend selling it. In case of MVIS stock, the first Romance peak took place in March of year 2000 when the stock traded in the $63 plus range.
The second Romance peak took place in June of 2007 when the management announced “Agreement with Motorola”. At the height of this Romance peak, the MVIS stock traded in the $6 range. It happened too quick [in less than two months] and the RP line indicated that it had not peaked and there was lot more momentum left for the stock to go still higher... to over $10 or so we believed. Also, the pico projector sector was just in initial stages of taking-off... as we know is happening right now. It took us a few months to realize the issues with SHG green laser technology and the resulting cost and supply constraints.
In hindsight, we may call it our greed that made us stay in this stock too long or may be it was our collective belief that there was more good news to come. How could it all start, take-off and crash in less than three months? Well, it did and the reasons are too well known to all of us so I won’t repeat them here.
The Transition Phase: can last from few months to several years. In case of Microvision, the Transition Phase started in September of 2007 when I first wrote about the technical issues that Corning was having with their SHG green lasers. This is when the blemishes appeared and the public’s perception of the stock started to diminish. It’s at this stage in the life of a company, like Microvision, that the company’s technology may fumble, the earnings may stumble [if there were any], the cash flow may turn negative [or cash burn may accelerate], the financing may disappear, the flaws in business growth strategy start showing-up in negative revenue growth [or as loss of revenue] and other issues start popping-up such as legal, financial, and key employee departures, etc.
Sooner or later the issues will get resolved and the company’s earnings will grow again… but only after the stock has bottomed and then, after an excruciating period, has started its next major advance.
Now we are at the tail end of the “Transition Phase”. During the Transition Phase, the blemishes [like technical problems with green lasers] appeared and public’s perception of the company diminished to such low levels as to bring the MVIS stock down to $0.80 in March 2009.
Many of the red-hot lovers who romanced MVIS on the way up have left the stock, and it's their selling pressures, driven by reduced perceptions, that have been pushing the MVIS stock down… and the bear market of 2008 hasn't helped, either. Every time a diehard long who had sworn to hold the stock forever gives up in disgust, the stock is pushed a little lower.
It's not the company's fault that Corning had repeatedly failed to deliver on the SHG green laser, a core component for making laser PicoP projectors. If the delay was reasonable, and not the 30 months, the MVIS stock would have traded rationally, based on earnings from a potentially gigantic global market. This stock would have been nowhere near as low as the 80 cents last March, and it would be certainly traded higher now than it currently is… at $2.69 and excruciating to hold it at this level.
But stock prices are determined by investors. And investors are people. People who fall-in and fall-out of love! People who buy with visions of profits and sell in disgust when their dreams are dashed! People who drive stocks to irrational heights and then sell them to irrational depths! That's what makes investing a challenge ... and very profitable, if you know what you're doing.
The Reality Phase: With Romance gone and the transition at end, the reality of the situation has become clear. In this final phase, the Reality Phase, the company could have taken one of the two roads… the road to renewed success… or the road to oblivion.
Microvision has struggled for over the last 30 months to deal with the core component─ green laser─ supply issue during the Transition Phase. All through this phase, Microvision managed to stay funded and fully staffed to aggressively pursue product development and continue with research to enlarge its intellectual property rights.
Finally, Corning has resolved its green laser yield issues and is now ramping production. Osram is coming on-line rapidly to become the second source of SHG green lasers… with a better, cheaper and higher yielding product. During the Transition Phase, Microvision management made some hard decisions to control cost, proactively raise funding─ even though it was considered unpopular with the investors, and aggressively pursued R&D to enlarge its IP portfolio and took measures to protect its intellectual property.
Over this last cycle, in my opinion, the MVIS stock price has bottomed at $1.96. The Transition Phase is over and the Reality Phase has kicked-in, or it will on March 8th after the earnings conference call.
It’s then; when analysis of the stock should become a little easier for investors who base their decisions on fundamentals. If the company's sales and earnings are growing, as I expect them to do very rapidly, the stock will rise, too. But it will do it in a far more rational manner, reflecting the reality of the company's sales and earnings growth potential over the next few years.
Before I leave you, consider this…
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “Validation Phase”. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders─ from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator, represent …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.
• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size, always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications, and no waste heat generation.
• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.
• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.
• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments… and the waste heat, hot enough to cook eggs sunny-side-up.
• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 200 issued and filed patents and with many more to come.
• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.
• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.
• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.
• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.
Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.
Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…
Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:
First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...
http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf
After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increase in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.
Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…
• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]
• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]
• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units
• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units
• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine
• Revenue: $4 billion
• Net Profit Margin: 40%
• Net Profit: $1.6 billion
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]
• Interest Expense: $0 million
• Interest Income: $20 million
• Tax: $220million
• Depreciation: non cash and very small
• Amortization: non cash and very small
• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion
• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]
• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company
• Price Per Share: $390 per share
In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 4 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.
Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP Display Engines will be larger than the supply."
This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place [like selling SHOWwx and its derivatives directly to US consumers] that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.
It’s ironic how we as investors act sometimes…
We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.
Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, and recognition by industry like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.69.
What, am I missing something here?
Don't tell me it has something to do with hot milk!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Microvision: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage (Report Update February 8, 2010)
On December 11th, Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Microvision with a “Perform” rating and also published an analyst’s report.
Oppenheimer defines their “Perform” rating as...
“Stock expected to perform in line with S&P 500 within the next 12 – 18 months.”
Here’s the link to my two part post on the subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-oppenheimer-initiates.html
On February 8th, Oppenheimer published a ten page report update…
http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/oEaRS45DzWrf776_EvDxFdQxDCDKAxpUt-kPuLlAFvD8X4pGQvzvIwHqu5SjjCcOzoGxeJr8_SXxFGRHVugyKt7siylf/MVIS_OPP_0210.pdf
In depth reading of this report update is certainly recommended. However, here’s the summary…
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
February 8, 2010
TECHNOLOGY/APPLIED TECHNOLOGY
Microvision, Inc.
Green Lasers Ramping Up
SUMMARY
Last Friday brought a bit of good news about the availability of green lasers, the key gating factor for the production ramp of Microvision's pico projector. The news was delivered during an Investor Day event held by Corning (GLW, $18.05, O), currently the world's only supplier of green lasers. Corning had missed a number of ramp-up targets over the course of 2009, but now appears on track and is currently producing 1K green lasers per week and still growing. As such, green laser availability should not pose a roadblock for our current MVIS volume estimates, which target 8K unit in 1Q10 and 83K units for FY10.
KEY POINTS
• Corning also noted that it is currently working on a second generation green laser, which will double its output to 20 lumens from 10 lumens. Corning does not see the quantum dot laser technology as a competitive threat, as its efficiency and brightness remain low.
• Bottom line: while we believe the value proposition of the ShowWX and the PicoP embedded module still need to prove themselves in the market, it appears component availability is set to become less of a gating factor near term.
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
Oppenheimer
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Oppenheimer defines their “Perform” rating as...
“Stock expected to perform in line with S&P 500 within the next 12 – 18 months.”
Here’s the link to my two part post on the subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-oppenheimer-initiates.html
On February 8th, Oppenheimer published a ten page report update…
http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/oEaRS45DzWrf776_EvDxFdQxDCDKAxpUt-kPuLlAFvD8X4pGQvzvIwHqu5SjjCcOzoGxeJr8_SXxFGRHVugyKt7siylf/MVIS_OPP_0210.pdf
In depth reading of this report update is certainly recommended. However, here’s the summary…
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
February 8, 2010
TECHNOLOGY/APPLIED TECHNOLOGY
Microvision, Inc.
Green Lasers Ramping Up
SUMMARY
Last Friday brought a bit of good news about the availability of green lasers, the key gating factor for the production ramp of Microvision's pico projector. The news was delivered during an Investor Day event held by Corning (GLW, $18.05, O), currently the world's only supplier of green lasers. Corning had missed a number of ramp-up targets over the course of 2009, but now appears on track and is currently producing 1K green lasers per week and still growing. As such, green laser availability should not pose a roadblock for our current MVIS volume estimates, which target 8K unit in 1Q10 and 83K units for FY10.
KEY POINTS
• Corning also noted that it is currently working on a second generation green laser, which will double its output to 20 lumens from 10 lumens. Corning does not see the quantum dot laser technology as a competitive threat, as its efficiency and brightness remain low.
• Bottom line: while we believe the value proposition of the ShowWX and the PicoP embedded module still need to prove themselves in the market, it appears component availability is set to become less of a gating factor near term.
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
Oppenheimer
*****
From what I hear, we are still on track to launch SHOWwx for the US market in March of 2010.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Friday, February 19, 2010
Microvision: You have to Earn Investor Respect
Today is 19th of February and there is no word from Microvision about the March 2010 launch of SHOWwx in the US.
Will this be another missed time line from Microvision?
Perhaps not... but the launch, if it does happen in March, may be nothing more than a token launch at best.
Unless my information is completely out of touch with reality, it seems that the problem may still be the green laser supply from Corning and Osram. I know that quantities are still limited, but don’t you think the management should atleast have the web site, for on-line sales of SHOWwx, up and running by now. At the very least, thousands of VIPs should have heard from Microvision by this time... that is, if the March launch is still on.
It will be interesting to see how Microvision management handles another “token launch” this time around. It has been a very frustrating two and half years now... waiting on green lasers on one hand and some transparency from the management on the other. The patience is running thin... and the well of goodwill and respect for this management is running dry.
Respect takes a long time to build and it's easily destroyed... especially after two and half years of patiently waiting for some straight answers.
When it comes to calculating asset value of a company there are three elements to consider...
• Physical,
• Financial,
• Reputation.
Yes, reputation of a company plays an important role among the Investor community as they pay up for respect, in part because respected companies tend to hold their value longer.
"Respected companies aren't going to fall as far in the bad times, and they come back better," says David Hartzell of Cornell Capital Management.
Defining respect isn't easy. "It's a difficult concept”.
However, there are surveys that clearly show...
“Respected companies have strong management, good governance, valuable products and services, and strong stock returns. They treat their shareholders, customers and employees well. They act ethically. And while some money managers name respect as the first cut in their investment process, others say respect is more often the result of a sound investment process.”
John Roberts, a portfolio manager with Denver Investments, contends that respect answers the question "Is management going to be a good steward of our clients' money?
Over the last two years, Microvision management has done very little to earn the respect from retail and institutional investors... as evident by roller-coaster ride experienced with Microvision stock over this two year period.
Here’s the link to the stock chart...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
It is sad but what can I say; other than...
“Microvision: You have to Earn Investor Respect”
Anant Goel
[Suggested read, reference article on: “The World's Most Respected Companies” at SmartMoney.com]...
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/The-Worlds-Most-Respected-Companies/?hpadref=1#ixzz0fzDrR3vO
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Will this be another missed time line from Microvision?
Perhaps not... but the launch, if it does happen in March, may be nothing more than a token launch at best.
Unless my information is completely out of touch with reality, it seems that the problem may still be the green laser supply from Corning and Osram. I know that quantities are still limited, but don’t you think the management should atleast have the web site, for on-line sales of SHOWwx, up and running by now. At the very least, thousands of VIPs should have heard from Microvision by this time... that is, if the March launch is still on.
It will be interesting to see how Microvision management handles another “token launch” this time around. It has been a very frustrating two and half years now... waiting on green lasers on one hand and some transparency from the management on the other. The patience is running thin... and the well of goodwill and respect for this management is running dry.
Respect takes a long time to build and it's easily destroyed... especially after two and half years of patiently waiting for some straight answers.
When it comes to calculating asset value of a company there are three elements to consider...
• Physical,
• Financial,
• Reputation.
Yes, reputation of a company plays an important role among the Investor community as they pay up for respect, in part because respected companies tend to hold their value longer.
"Respected companies aren't going to fall as far in the bad times, and they come back better," says David Hartzell of Cornell Capital Management.
Defining respect isn't easy. "It's a difficult concept”.
However, there are surveys that clearly show...
“Respected companies have strong management, good governance, valuable products and services, and strong stock returns. They treat their shareholders, customers and employees well. They act ethically. And while some money managers name respect as the first cut in their investment process, others say respect is more often the result of a sound investment process.”
John Roberts, a portfolio manager with Denver Investments, contends that respect answers the question "Is management going to be a good steward of our clients' money?
Over the last two years, Microvision management has done very little to earn the respect from retail and institutional investors... as evident by roller-coaster ride experienced with Microvision stock over this two year period.
Here’s the link to the stock chart...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
It is sad but what can I say; other than...
“Microvision: You have to Earn Investor Respect”
Anant Goel
[Suggested read, reference article on: “The World's Most Respected Companies” at SmartMoney.com]...
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/The-Worlds-Most-Respected-Companies/?hpadref=1#ixzz0fzDrR3vO
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Microvision: Missing from Mobile World Congress meet in Barcelona – February 15-18, 2010
Mobile World Congress is being held in Barcelona [Spain] from February 15-18, 2010.
Here’s the link...
http://www.mobileworldcongress.com/sponsors/sponsors.htm
Last year, Microvision was there as one of the exhibitors and got some very good reviews for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx...
http://vimeo.com/3340611
However, this year Microvision is not at the Mobile World Congress meet.
Do you know why?
That’s right... because Vodafone is there as one of the sponsor of this event. And Vodafone is Microvision’s first Mobile Phone Carrier customer.
Here’s the link to the post on this subject...
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-vodafone-is-first-mobile.html
Looks like things are finally coming together as they should be; at this stage of product launch.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Here’s the link...
http://www.mobileworldcongress.com/sponsors/sponsors.htm
Last year, Microvision was there as one of the exhibitors and got some very good reviews for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx...
http://vimeo.com/3340611
However, this year Microvision is not at the Mobile World Congress meet.
Do you know why?
That’s right... because Vodafone is there as one of the sponsor of this event. And Vodafone is Microvision’s first Mobile Phone Carrier customer.
Here’s the link to the post on this subject...
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-vodafone-is-first-mobile.html
Looks like things are finally coming together as they should be; at this stage of product launch.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Microvision: SHOWwx Grabs [and some more] Macworld Expo 2010 “Best of Show” Award
That’s right... we got it... we’re not hot... we’re so cool.
But first, let’s get the “... Macworld Expo 2010 Best of Show Award” part out of the way.
In the words of Matt Nichols of Microvision; comes the first coverage of his exciting news at the company’s blog site The Displayground...
Microvision’s SHOWwx Grabs Macworld Expo 2010 “Best of Show” Award
February 12th, 2010
by Matt Nichols
The New Year may be young, but SHOWWX already has earned three big industry awards in 2010, we’re proud to report.
In addition to the Last Gadget Standing and Innovation awards at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas last month, SHOWWX took away top honors as a “Best of Show” winner at the Macworld 2010 conference this week at Moscone Center in San Francisco. Estimated attendance is in the 30K+ range by the show organizers. So, while attendance may be down from the high a few years ago, this is still a very active show. The Macworld Best of Show awards, selected by the editors of Macworld, are given to the best products, innovations and upgrades.
Only a few companies — Microvision among them — were chosen to spotlight award-winning products on the Main Stage during “Macworld DEMO: Best of Show.” This was a feature presentation for conference attendees, in front of about 1,000 people on Thursday morning. Myself, Ben Averch and Nick Andron gave the SHOWWX pitch and demo on stage. It was exhilarating to listen to the ‘ooohs’ and ‘ahhhs’ of delight from the audience when we turned the projector on! Here’s just one of the many blogs about the event, entitled: Six Products To Watch From MacWorld.
Active link: http://mashable.com/2010/02/11/macworld-best-of-show/
It’s also been very busy in the Microvision booth during the first day of the exhibitions, and many conference attendees are excited to hear that the product is planned to arrive in the U.S. for distribution in the March time frame.
If you are in the San Francisco area, come visit us at booth #1486.
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Now let’s look at a few facts to see what this Macworld Expo 2010 “Best of Show” award means to Microvision...
• There are over 120 million Apple users worldwide... 20+ million Mac users... 100+ million iPod and iPhone users. Not only that, Mac and Apple consumer product owners tend to very devoted to Apple; unlike the PC product owners that are very fragmented just like the PC industry itself. Remember, there is only one Apple whereas there are thousands of PC manufactures of all shape and sizes. So, when you grab the “Best of Show” at Macworld Expo 2010, you surly are going to get some serious attention, sooner or later, from the Apple user community worldwide. Millions of those from the Apple cult will become buyers of SHOWwx and quite possibly also become the investors of Microvision stock MVIS.
• Millions of Apple user eyeballs get the opportunity to see what makes laser based PicoP projector a compelling companion product for the iPod, iPhone, iPad and the Mac. Immediate attention that SHOWwx receives during the MacWorld Expo 2010 will be nothing compared to the slow sizzle that would spread throughout the Apple user community in the months to come. This is just the beginning, wait till we get to the embedded PicoP Display Engine part in 2nd Qtr of 2010 with dozens of applications catering to the worldwide Apple user community. It will be a real sizzler!
• For those Apple users that may be somewhat familiar with pico projectors, it could mean a wake-up call to SHOWwx as a better choice pico projector compared to other technologies currently being offered.
Microvision Stock Reacts Positively to the News:
We saw the immediate stock price reaction to this news, in the form of new investors taking long position in MVIS stock, about the same time [11:40 am PST or 2:40pm EST] when Microvision got its turn to make the of SHOWwx presentation to the 1,000 or so present at the live Expo 2010 Main Stage.
“At about 2:40 pm EST [11:40 am PST] MVIS stock moved very quickly from $2.07 to $2.22 and closed the day at $2.24... the new high for the day."
Here’s the link to the stock chart...
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=MVIS
This is the part that most of us may or may not realize...
The next day on Friday, following the “Best of Show” award on Thursday, the MVIS stock kept moving higher... while the rest of the market stayed down over 100 pts on the Dow most of the day. At the end of the day, MVIS closed at $2.55... that’s 31 cents higher on the day while the rest of the market closed lower.
The MacWorld Expo continues for another day on Saturday. Then on Monday, it’s a holiday for President’s Day. In other words, there is much more pent-up demand building for MVIS stock during the long weekend of due diligence from thousands of Apple devotees. Tuesday, when the market opens, it will be a very interesting day for the long investors of Microvision stock.
Microvision stock is an opportunity of a lifetime in our lifetime.
Here’s the link to part 5 of the story...
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in.html
[Warning: There are four more parts to this story. I know brevity is a virtue... but I didn’t learn that lesson until recently]
Once this “opportunity of a lifetime...” part sinks-in the minds of thousands of Apple investors and consumers, we could see the MVIS stock move back-up to its glory days of over $3.28 in the next few days.
Also, there is confluence of evidence that Microvision will launch its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US market sometime in the month of March. It is also evident that SHOWwx will be sold directly from Microvision website... perhaps as an addendum to the existing corporate web site currently at...
http://www.microvision.com/
Over the last few days, there have been several favorable [to Microvision] news events and they are worthy of mention.... and that will be the subject of my next post.
Enjoy the recovery because it is sustainable; and is a clear skies evidence of superior PicoP technology that not only validates Microvision’s business model but is also a prerequisite to becoming a true financial success.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
But first, let’s get the “... Macworld Expo 2010 Best of Show Award” part out of the way.
In the words of Matt Nichols of Microvision; comes the first coverage of his exciting news at the company’s blog site The Displayground...
Microvision’s SHOWwx Grabs Macworld Expo 2010 “Best of Show” Award
February 12th, 2010
by Matt Nichols
The New Year may be young, but SHOWWX already has earned three big industry awards in 2010, we’re proud to report.
In addition to the Last Gadget Standing and Innovation awards at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas last month, SHOWWX took away top honors as a “Best of Show” winner at the Macworld 2010 conference this week at Moscone Center in San Francisco. Estimated attendance is in the 30K+ range by the show organizers. So, while attendance may be down from the high a few years ago, this is still a very active show. The Macworld Best of Show awards, selected by the editors of Macworld, are given to the best products, innovations and upgrades.
Only a few companies — Microvision among them — were chosen to spotlight award-winning products on the Main Stage during “Macworld DEMO: Best of Show.” This was a feature presentation for conference attendees, in front of about 1,000 people on Thursday morning. Myself, Ben Averch and Nick Andron gave the SHOWWX pitch and demo on stage. It was exhilarating to listen to the ‘ooohs’ and ‘ahhhs’ of delight from the audience when we turned the projector on! Here’s just one of the many blogs about the event, entitled: Six Products To Watch From MacWorld.
Active link: http://mashable.com/2010/02/11/macworld-best-of-show/
It’s also been very busy in the Microvision booth during the first day of the exhibitions, and many conference attendees are excited to hear that the product is planned to arrive in the U.S. for distribution in the March time frame.
If you are in the San Francisco area, come visit us at booth #1486.
*****
Here’s the link...http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Now let’s look at a few facts to see what this Macworld Expo 2010 “Best of Show” award means to Microvision...
• There are over 120 million Apple users worldwide... 20+ million Mac users... 100+ million iPod and iPhone users. Not only that, Mac and Apple consumer product owners tend to very devoted to Apple; unlike the PC product owners that are very fragmented just like the PC industry itself. Remember, there is only one Apple whereas there are thousands of PC manufactures of all shape and sizes. So, when you grab the “Best of Show” at Macworld Expo 2010, you surly are going to get some serious attention, sooner or later, from the Apple user community worldwide. Millions of those from the Apple cult will become buyers of SHOWwx and quite possibly also become the investors of Microvision stock MVIS.
• Millions of Apple user eyeballs get the opportunity to see what makes laser based PicoP projector a compelling companion product for the iPod, iPhone, iPad and the Mac. Immediate attention that SHOWwx receives during the MacWorld Expo 2010 will be nothing compared to the slow sizzle that would spread throughout the Apple user community in the months to come. This is just the beginning, wait till we get to the embedded PicoP Display Engine part in 2nd Qtr of 2010 with dozens of applications catering to the worldwide Apple user community. It will be a real sizzler!
• For those Apple users that may be somewhat familiar with pico projectors, it could mean a wake-up call to SHOWwx as a better choice pico projector compared to other technologies currently being offered.
Microvision Stock Reacts Positively to the News:
We saw the immediate stock price reaction to this news, in the form of new investors taking long position in MVIS stock, about the same time [11:40 am PST or 2:40pm EST] when Microvision got its turn to make the of SHOWwx presentation to the 1,000 or so present at the live Expo 2010 Main Stage.
“At about 2:40 pm EST [11:40 am PST] MVIS stock moved very quickly from $2.07 to $2.22 and closed the day at $2.24... the new high for the day."
Here’s the link to the stock chart...
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=MVIS
This is the part that most of us may or may not realize...
The next day on Friday, following the “Best of Show” award on Thursday, the MVIS stock kept moving higher... while the rest of the market stayed down over 100 pts on the Dow most of the day. At the end of the day, MVIS closed at $2.55... that’s 31 cents higher on the day while the rest of the market closed lower.
The MacWorld Expo continues for another day on Saturday. Then on Monday, it’s a holiday for President’s Day. In other words, there is much more pent-up demand building for MVIS stock during the long weekend of due diligence from thousands of Apple devotees. Tuesday, when the market opens, it will be a very interesting day for the long investors of Microvision stock.
Microvision stock is an opportunity of a lifetime in our lifetime.
Here’s the link to part 5 of the story...
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in.html
[Warning: There are four more parts to this story. I know brevity is a virtue... but I didn’t learn that lesson until recently]
Once this “opportunity of a lifetime...” part sinks-in the minds of thousands of Apple investors and consumers, we could see the MVIS stock move back-up to its glory days of over $3.28 in the next few days.
Also, there is confluence of evidence that Microvision will launch its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US market sometime in the month of March. It is also evident that SHOWwx will be sold directly from Microvision website... perhaps as an addendum to the existing corporate web site currently at...
http://www.microvision.com/
Over the last few days, there have been several favorable [to Microvision] news events and they are worthy of mention.... and that will be the subject of my next post.
Enjoy the recovery because it is sustainable; and is a clear skies evidence of superior PicoP technology that not only validates Microvision’s business model but is also a prerequisite to becoming a true financial success.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
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