Every growth stock falls into 1 of 3 categories…
1. The Romance Phase
2. The Transition Phase
3. The Reality Phase
Most growth stocks tend to pass through three phases of growth… romance, transition and reality. By knowing which phase a stock is in, you can quickly determine whether the profits are just beginning… or the well is drying up fast. Needless to say, this can make the decision to buy, sell or hold significantly easier. And its decisions like these that will make or break your success in investing.
You may say that in case of Microvision, the romance is gone and the transition is at an end, and the reality of situation [green laser issue] has become clear. And in your opinion in this phase, the company’s entire financial future depends on the availability and the cost of green lasers. Since the company has made no effort to incorporate any other type of light source to power its PicoP Display Engine, the core of its entire product line, it is fair to say that Microvision will thrive or perish by the green laser sword.
Some of you have lived through the romance phase, which peaked in year 2000 with the MVIS stock trading well over $63… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology. Those that did not cash out after the romance phase, the most profitable phase, and are still holding the MVIS stock and they have battle scars to prove their passage through the three phases of growth in the life of a company. Now we are at the tail end of the transition phase, when blemishes appear and public’s perception of the company starts to diminish.
If you feel that we all have made a mistake in believing and staying too long in MVIS stock and are in the same boat at this point in time? We all have, for whatever the reason, stayed little too long in this stock and are now paying the price of dealing with uncertain future and muted enthusiasm of a product launch… that revolves around a core component from green laser supply chain! If that’s what you believe, and can think with a cool head and not point fingers, then continue reading, as I would like to share some facts, figures and analysis?
Microvision story is not over yet. It is, however, certainly the end of the romance phase and we are now successfully transitioning to the reality phase. If you dig deeper, you will find that it is just the beginning that is based on reality of Microvision’s financial and cost structure and will resume its momentum to renewed success based on improving availability and cheaper cost of green lasers… the Achilles heel to Microvision’s financial success. This may sound like a wish full conclusion to Microvision saga… but fortunately that happens to be the conclusion of my analysis based on findings of facts and figures.
So stay tuned and let’s continue with our analysis…
The Romance Phase: is the most profitable phase by far and is the one that you’ll want to focus on… that is, if you were lucky enough to be around during the early life stages of Microvision in year 2000. It’s in this phase that a fortune can be amassed very quickly, long before most investors are even aware that the company exists. Yet at some point, the stock’s price and its Relative Performance (RP) line will reach all-time highs. This tells you the Romance in the stock has peaked. This is when most analysts, if there are any following the stock, would recommend selling it. In case of MVIS stock, the first Romance peak took place in March of year 2000 when the stock traded in the $63 plus range.
The second Romance peak took place in June of 2007 when the management announced “Agreement with Motorola”. At the height of this Romance peak, the MVIS stock traded in the $6 range. It happened too quick [in less than two months] and the RP line indicated that it had not peaked and there was lot more momentum left for the stock to go still higher... to over $10 or so we believed. Also, the pico projector sector was just in initial stages of taking-off... as we know is happening right now. It took us a few months to realize the issues with SHG green laser technology and the resulting cost and supply constraints.
In hindsight, we may call it our greed that made us stay in this stock too long or may be it was our collective belief that there was more good news to come. How could it all start, take-off and crash in less than three months? Well, it did and the reasons are too well known to all of us so I won’t repeat them here.
The Transition Phase: can last from few months to several years. In case of Microvision, the Transition Phase started in September of 2007 when I first wrote about the technical issues that Corning was having with their SHG green lasers. This is when the blemishes appeared and the public’s perception of the stock started to diminish. It’s at this stage in the life of a company, like Microvision, that the company’s technology may fumble, the earnings may stumble [if there were any], the cash flow may turn negative [or cash burn may accelerate], the financing may disappear, the flaws in business growth strategy start showing-up in negative revenue growth [or as loss of revenue] and other issues start popping-up such as legal, financial, and key employee departures, etc.
Sooner or later the issues will get resolved and the company’s earnings will grow again… but only after the stock has bottomed and then, after an excruciating period, has started its next major advance.
Now we are at the tail end of the “Transition Phase”. During the Transition Phase, the blemishes [like technical problems with green lasers] appeared and public’s perception of the company diminished to such low levels as to bring the MVIS stock down to $0.80 in March 2009.
Many of the red-hot lovers who romanced MVIS on the way up have left the stock, and it's their selling pressures, driven by reduced perceptions, that have been pushing the MVIS stock down… and the bear market of 2008 hasn't helped, either. Every time a diehard long who had sworn to hold the stock forever gives up in disgust, the stock is pushed a little lower.
It's not the company's fault that Corning had repeatedly failed to deliver on the SHG green laser, a core component for making laser PicoP projectors. If the delay was reasonable, and not the 30 months, the MVIS stock would have traded rationally, based on earnings from a potentially gigantic global market. This stock would have been nowhere near as low as the 80 cents last March, and it would be certainly traded higher now than it currently is… at $2.69 and excruciating to hold it at this level.
But stock prices are determined by investors. And investors are people. People who fall-in and fall-out of love! People who buy with visions of profits and sell in disgust when their dreams are dashed! People who drive stocks to irrational heights and then sell them to irrational depths! That's what makes investing a challenge ... and very profitable, if you know what you're doing.
The Reality Phase: With Romance gone and the transition at end, the reality of the situation has become clear. In this final phase, the Reality Phase, the company could have taken one of the two roads… the road to renewed success… or the road to oblivion.
Microvision has struggled for over the last 30 months to deal with the core component─ green laser─ supply issue during the Transition Phase. All through this phase, Microvision managed to stay funded and fully staffed to aggressively pursue product development and continue with research to enlarge its intellectual property rights.
Finally, Corning has resolved its green laser yield issues and is now ramping production. Osram is coming on-line rapidly to become the second source of SHG green lasers… with a better, cheaper and higher yielding product. During the Transition Phase, Microvision management made some hard decisions to control cost, proactively raise funding─ even though it was considered unpopular with the investors, and aggressively pursued R&D to enlarge its IP portfolio and took measures to protect its intellectual property.
Over this last cycle, in my opinion, the MVIS stock price has bottomed at $1.96. The Transition Phase is over and the Reality Phase has kicked-in, or it will on March 8th after the earnings conference call.
It’s then; when analysis of the stock should become a little easier for investors who base their decisions on fundamentals. If the company's sales and earnings are growing, as I expect them to do very rapidly, the stock will rise, too. But it will do it in a far more rational manner, reflecting the reality of the company's sales and earnings growth potential over the next few years.
Before I leave you, consider this…
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “Validation Phase”. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders─ from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator, represent …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.
• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size, always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications, and no waste heat generation.
• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.
• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.
• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments… and the waste heat, hot enough to cook eggs sunny-side-up.
• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 200 issued and filed patents and with many more to come.
• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.
• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.
• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.
• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.
Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.
Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…
Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:
First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...
http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf
After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increase in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.
Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…
• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]
• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]
• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units
• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units
• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine
• Revenue: $4 billion
• Net Profit Margin: 40%
• Net Profit: $1.6 billion
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]
• Interest Expense: $0 million
• Interest Income: $20 million
• Tax: $220million
• Depreciation: non cash and very small
• Amortization: non cash and very small
• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion
• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]
• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company
• Price Per Share: $390 per share
In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 4 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.
Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP Display Engines will be larger than the supply."
This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place [like selling SHOWwx and its derivatives directly to US consumers] that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.
It’s ironic how we as investors act sometimes…
We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.
Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, and recognition by industry like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.69.
What, am I missing something here?
Don't tell me it has something to do with hot milk!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Showing posts with label Uniden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Uniden. Show all posts
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Microvision: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage (Report Update February 8, 2010)
On December 11th, Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Microvision with a “Perform” rating and also published an analyst’s report.
Oppenheimer defines their “Perform” rating as...
“Stock expected to perform in line with S&P 500 within the next 12 – 18 months.”
Here’s the link to my two part post on the subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-oppenheimer-initiates.html
On February 8th, Oppenheimer published a ten page report update…
http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/oEaRS45DzWrf776_EvDxFdQxDCDKAxpUt-kPuLlAFvD8X4pGQvzvIwHqu5SjjCcOzoGxeJr8_SXxFGRHVugyKt7siylf/MVIS_OPP_0210.pdf
In depth reading of this report update is certainly recommended. However, here’s the summary…
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
February 8, 2010
TECHNOLOGY/APPLIED TECHNOLOGY
Microvision, Inc.
Green Lasers Ramping Up
SUMMARY
Last Friday brought a bit of good news about the availability of green lasers, the key gating factor for the production ramp of Microvision's pico projector. The news was delivered during an Investor Day event held by Corning (GLW, $18.05, O), currently the world's only supplier of green lasers. Corning had missed a number of ramp-up targets over the course of 2009, but now appears on track and is currently producing 1K green lasers per week and still growing. As such, green laser availability should not pose a roadblock for our current MVIS volume estimates, which target 8K unit in 1Q10 and 83K units for FY10.
KEY POINTS
• Corning also noted that it is currently working on a second generation green laser, which will double its output to 20 lumens from 10 lumens. Corning does not see the quantum dot laser technology as a competitive threat, as its efficiency and brightness remain low.
• Bottom line: while we believe the value proposition of the ShowWX and the PicoP embedded module still need to prove themselves in the market, it appears component availability is set to become less of a gating factor near term.
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
Oppenheimer
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Oppenheimer defines their “Perform” rating as...
“Stock expected to perform in line with S&P 500 within the next 12 – 18 months.”
Here’s the link to my two part post on the subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-oppenheimer-initiates.html
On February 8th, Oppenheimer published a ten page report update…
http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/oEaRS45DzWrf776_EvDxFdQxDCDKAxpUt-kPuLlAFvD8X4pGQvzvIwHqu5SjjCcOzoGxeJr8_SXxFGRHVugyKt7siylf/MVIS_OPP_0210.pdf
In depth reading of this report update is certainly recommended. However, here’s the summary…
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
February 8, 2010
TECHNOLOGY/APPLIED TECHNOLOGY
Microvision, Inc.
Green Lasers Ramping Up
SUMMARY
Last Friday brought a bit of good news about the availability of green lasers, the key gating factor for the production ramp of Microvision's pico projector. The news was delivered during an Investor Day event held by Corning (GLW, $18.05, O), currently the world's only supplier of green lasers. Corning had missed a number of ramp-up targets over the course of 2009, but now appears on track and is currently producing 1K green lasers per week and still growing. As such, green laser availability should not pose a roadblock for our current MVIS volume estimates, which target 8K unit in 1Q10 and 83K units for FY10.
KEY POINTS
• Corning also noted that it is currently working on a second generation green laser, which will double its output to 20 lumens from 10 lumens. Corning does not see the quantum dot laser technology as a competitive threat, as its efficiency and brightness remain low.
• Bottom line: while we believe the value proposition of the ShowWX and the PicoP embedded module still need to prove themselves in the market, it appears component availability is set to become less of a gating factor near term.
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
Oppenheimer
*****
From what I hear, we are still on track to launch SHOWwx for the US market in March of 2010.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Microvision: US Launch of SHOWwx in Late March or Early April
That’s the rumor up and down the supply chain.
Currently, so it seems, the emphasis is on shipping everything to full fill back orders from the existing customers… such as Mint Wireless, Uniden and Vodafone.
SHOWwx shipments in 2009 were very small and the quantities shipped blatantly fly foul in the face of publicly stated [or projected] quantities that we were made to believe. I don’t know how AT plans on covering his tracks to justify grossly misstated projections for quantities… but then again, he doesn’t have to because projections are just that─ projections.
I wish Microvision management comes clean with whatever it is; or was; or was said or done… just get-on with business at hand and move forward from this day onwards.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Currently, so it seems, the emphasis is on shipping everything to full fill back orders from the existing customers… such as Mint Wireless, Uniden and Vodafone.
SHOWwx shipments in 2009 were very small and the quantities shipped blatantly fly foul in the face of publicly stated [or projected] quantities that we were made to believe. I don’t know how AT plans on covering his tracks to justify grossly misstated projections for quantities… but then again, he doesn’t have to because projections are just that─ projections.
I wish Microvision management comes clean with whatever it is; or was; or was said or done… just get-on with business at hand and move forward from this day onwards.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Friday, February 19, 2010
Microvision: You have to Earn Investor Respect
Today is 19th of February and there is no word from Microvision about the March 2010 launch of SHOWwx in the US.
Will this be another missed time line from Microvision?
Perhaps not... but the launch, if it does happen in March, may be nothing more than a token launch at best.
Unless my information is completely out of touch with reality, it seems that the problem may still be the green laser supply from Corning and Osram. I know that quantities are still limited, but don’t you think the management should atleast have the web site, for on-line sales of SHOWwx, up and running by now. At the very least, thousands of VIPs should have heard from Microvision by this time... that is, if the March launch is still on.
It will be interesting to see how Microvision management handles another “token launch” this time around. It has been a very frustrating two and half years now... waiting on green lasers on one hand and some transparency from the management on the other. The patience is running thin... and the well of goodwill and respect for this management is running dry.
Respect takes a long time to build and it's easily destroyed... especially after two and half years of patiently waiting for some straight answers.
When it comes to calculating asset value of a company there are three elements to consider...
• Physical,
• Financial,
• Reputation.
Yes, reputation of a company plays an important role among the Investor community as they pay up for respect, in part because respected companies tend to hold their value longer.
"Respected companies aren't going to fall as far in the bad times, and they come back better," says David Hartzell of Cornell Capital Management.
Defining respect isn't easy. "It's a difficult concept”.
However, there are surveys that clearly show...
“Respected companies have strong management, good governance, valuable products and services, and strong stock returns. They treat their shareholders, customers and employees well. They act ethically. And while some money managers name respect as the first cut in their investment process, others say respect is more often the result of a sound investment process.”
John Roberts, a portfolio manager with Denver Investments, contends that respect answers the question "Is management going to be a good steward of our clients' money?
Over the last two years, Microvision management has done very little to earn the respect from retail and institutional investors... as evident by roller-coaster ride experienced with Microvision stock over this two year period.
Here’s the link to the stock chart...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
It is sad but what can I say; other than...
“Microvision: You have to Earn Investor Respect”
Anant Goel
[Suggested read, reference article on: “The World's Most Respected Companies” at SmartMoney.com]...
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/The-Worlds-Most-Respected-Companies/?hpadref=1#ixzz0fzDrR3vO
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Will this be another missed time line from Microvision?
Perhaps not... but the launch, if it does happen in March, may be nothing more than a token launch at best.
Unless my information is completely out of touch with reality, it seems that the problem may still be the green laser supply from Corning and Osram. I know that quantities are still limited, but don’t you think the management should atleast have the web site, for on-line sales of SHOWwx, up and running by now. At the very least, thousands of VIPs should have heard from Microvision by this time... that is, if the March launch is still on.
It will be interesting to see how Microvision management handles another “token launch” this time around. It has been a very frustrating two and half years now... waiting on green lasers on one hand and some transparency from the management on the other. The patience is running thin... and the well of goodwill and respect for this management is running dry.
Respect takes a long time to build and it's easily destroyed... especially after two and half years of patiently waiting for some straight answers.
When it comes to calculating asset value of a company there are three elements to consider...
• Physical,
• Financial,
• Reputation.
Yes, reputation of a company plays an important role among the Investor community as they pay up for respect, in part because respected companies tend to hold their value longer.
"Respected companies aren't going to fall as far in the bad times, and they come back better," says David Hartzell of Cornell Capital Management.
Defining respect isn't easy. "It's a difficult concept”.
However, there are surveys that clearly show...
“Respected companies have strong management, good governance, valuable products and services, and strong stock returns. They treat their shareholders, customers and employees well. They act ethically. And while some money managers name respect as the first cut in their investment process, others say respect is more often the result of a sound investment process.”
John Roberts, a portfolio manager with Denver Investments, contends that respect answers the question "Is management going to be a good steward of our clients' money?
Over the last two years, Microvision management has done very little to earn the respect from retail and institutional investors... as evident by roller-coaster ride experienced with Microvision stock over this two year period.
Here’s the link to the stock chart...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
It is sad but what can I say; other than...
“Microvision: You have to Earn Investor Respect”
Anant Goel
[Suggested read, reference article on: “The World's Most Respected Companies” at SmartMoney.com]...
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Stocks/The-Worlds-Most-Respected-Companies/?hpadref=1#ixzz0fzDrR3vO
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Microvision: What to Expect At SID 2010
Society of Information Display (SID) expo starts on May 25th, 2010.
That’s about four months away and the supply chain partners of Microvision are expected to further enhance the green laser technology during this period... and that should put further distance between the competition and Microvision offering.
In January of 2008, an excellent article from EETimes undisputedly confirmed that Microvision has the best PicoP technology for any application where the image size, image resolution, pico display engine module size, power requirement, auto-focus and cost matters. It was expected that as the time goes on, Microvision technology will further mature in-line with maturing market [and increasing adoption rates] and all these differentiating features will only get better... while the cost comes down dramatically as the economy of scale is reached with green lasers.
In the future, hopefully by the SID 2010 in May, I expect to see…
• Longer life and reliable MEMS chip.
• Higher resolution that’s better than the current 848x480 pixels… by decreasing the pixel size and increasing the scan frequency of the MEMS chip.
• Brighter pictures [going from 10 lumen to 20 lumen]… by using more powerful laser light modules from Corning and Osram. Both Corning and Osram have an ultimate target of over 28 lumens for their green lasers.
• Reduced power requirements [for the embedded PDEs] by further optimizing the ASIC, and the RGB lasers on/off cycle etc.
• Brighter and larger image size [over 100 inches diagonal] that is always in focus... an inherent feature of the RGB lasers.
• Cost of PicoP Display Engine to about $190 [including cost of bill of materials, assembly and supply chain profit mark-ups]… as a result of economy of scale.
These are some powerful statements and I will try to explain…
First, here’s the link to EETimes article that is perhaps the best [and most comprehensive] article I have seen so far…
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=205900379#Szene_1
Here’re my observations from the EETimes article …
Competing Technologies:
There are essentially three competing technologies: FLCOS panel based [Displaytech, LBO], LCOS micro-display based [3M] and MEMS chips based [TI and Microvision]. However, the two front runner technologies remain the LCOS panels based and the MEMS chips based.
Market Leader Standalone Pico Projector:
Displaytech [and its OEMs like iView, and LBO] and 3M are competing in LCOS panels based Pico Projector direction that may be good for the standalone market but certainly is not ready for the embedded version… due to size, image size, image quality, power requirement, heat generation, and auto focus issues. 3M and Displaytech are head to head in this space and may have [a perceived] cost advantage at this stage. However, you must note Displaytech’s claim: “that a complete pico-projector subsystem, including the FLCOS panel, red-, green- and blue-LEDs, optical lenses and packaging, has a bill of material of less than $100” is misleading. When you include the cost of assembly [by the integrator] and profit mark-ups, this cost to the OEMs is more like $160. 3M may have a price advantage over Displaytech in the standalone Pico Display Engine cost to OEMs.
Texas Instruments and Microvision are competing in the standalone space with their MEMS chips based Pico Projector. Today, Microvision is the un-disputed leader in this space [with quality image, large image size, small PDE module size, low power, zero waste heat and always-in-focus] and when they do release the production PDEs for the OEM market [in the 2nd Qtr of 2010], I can assure you the cost to OEMs may be in the $170 to $190 range.
Microvision’s standalone PicoP projector SHOWwx is scheduled to be released in the US market in March of 2010. At the CES 2010, there were several units on display projecting great images in real time from an iPod… for you to touch and feel. None of the competitors was at the CES 2010 and had nothing close to SHOWwx on display… in quality or for you to touch and feel. 3M and TI showed you their Pico Projector… but did you see it projecting real video or held it in your hand. How about that sleigh of the hand focus by the TI and 3M representative?
The microdisplay vendors like Displaytech and 3M; and the MEMS micromirror companies like Texas Instrument and Microvision; are headed in two different directions. Displaytech and 3M solution uses cheap and readily available LEDs and a low-cost liquid-crystal-on-silicon panel, but companies have been manufacturing LCOS panels for years and their solution will look comparatively power hungry and expensive as time goes by. Whereas, both Texas Instrument's and Microvision's MEMS micromirror chips will become smaller, cheaper and lower power in the future, but might not look as attractive to OEMs today. Of the micromirror solutions, Microvision's MEMS solution will be the smallest, lowest power and cheapest approach, because it uses a single MEMS micromirror, but today it depends on relatively expensive green laser. Texas Instruments DLP, on the other hand, is a little bigger, more expensive and higher power today, since it uses hundreds of thousand of micromirrors, but it produces relatively good images and is readily available. However, one desirable and differentiating aspect of Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is the always-in-focus feature that no other pico projector has.
Market Leader Embedded Pico Projector:
Today, Microvision is the un-disputed leader in the embedded PicoP space [with quality image, small size, low power, zero waste heat, auto-focus and cost] and when they do release the PicoP Display Engines for the embedded market [in the 2nd Qtr of 2010], I can assure you the cost to OEMs may be in the $170 to $190 range initially... and going lower from there.
When it comes to the embedded PDEs; the unit size, power required, image quality, image size, auto-focus and cost are all important. When Microvision is ready to release the PDEs for the embedded market [in 2nd Qtr of 2010]…
• the module size will be less than 7mm,
• the power required will be less than 1.5 watts,
• the image size will be from 12” to over 100”,
• the resolution will be the current 848x480 pixels,
• the brightness will be better than the 10 lumen today,
• the projected image will always be in focus,
• and the cost to OEMs [like Motorola] is expected to be in the $170 to $190 range… and going down as the production/adoption rate increase in 2011.
In the embedded market space, I don’t see any of the competitors coming close to Microvision in this race… not even Taxes Instruments with their power guzzling million-micromirrors based Pico Projector. The likes of 3M and Displaytech will never get down to acceptable levels of size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost requirements… as they will have the “gating issues”. Pico Projectors that use million micromirrors or LCOS panels [with lenses and optics] just can’t cut the mustard in terms of physical size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost.
I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection space... Displaytech with FLCOS, 3M with LCOS, and TI with DLP technologies.
However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.
Microvision’s laser PicoP Display Engine will lead the rat pack because of the following:
• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.
• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) in the standalone version will make the competition at par with Microvision’s SHOWwx... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?
Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine produces virtually zero heat due to lasers being used as the light source and also due to on/off switching of lasers during dark image segments. Competing pico projection technologies of others produce enough waste heat to cook eggs... sunny side up for sure.
• “A wide angle view means that Microvision’s PDE can show a wider screen at closer distance!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's PDE you get…
"A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus."
• Laser based PicoP Display Engines will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.
• Microvision’s PDE has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.
• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based PicoP Display Engine do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.
• Microvision’s PDE can go from 12” to 200” diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.
• Microvision’s PDE projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.
• Microvision’ PDE projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.
• Microvision’s PDE has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.
• Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser [G-2000] from Corning.
After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…
"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."
Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/
Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx [and PDEs for embedded applications] with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.
My money is riding on Microvision.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
That’s about four months away and the supply chain partners of Microvision are expected to further enhance the green laser technology during this period... and that should put further distance between the competition and Microvision offering.
In January of 2008, an excellent article from EETimes undisputedly confirmed that Microvision has the best PicoP technology for any application where the image size, image resolution, pico display engine module size, power requirement, auto-focus and cost matters. It was expected that as the time goes on, Microvision technology will further mature in-line with maturing market [and increasing adoption rates] and all these differentiating features will only get better... while the cost comes down dramatically as the economy of scale is reached with green lasers.
In the future, hopefully by the SID 2010 in May, I expect to see…
• Longer life and reliable MEMS chip.
• Higher resolution that’s better than the current 848x480 pixels… by decreasing the pixel size and increasing the scan frequency of the MEMS chip.
• Brighter pictures [going from 10 lumen to 20 lumen]… by using more powerful laser light modules from Corning and Osram. Both Corning and Osram have an ultimate target of over 28 lumens for their green lasers.
• Reduced power requirements [for the embedded PDEs] by further optimizing the ASIC, and the RGB lasers on/off cycle etc.
• Brighter and larger image size [over 100 inches diagonal] that is always in focus... an inherent feature of the RGB lasers.
• Cost of PicoP Display Engine to about $190 [including cost of bill of materials, assembly and supply chain profit mark-ups]… as a result of economy of scale.
These are some powerful statements and I will try to explain…
First, here’s the link to EETimes article that is perhaps the best [and most comprehensive] article I have seen so far…
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=205900379#Szene_1
Here’re my observations from the EETimes article …
Competing Technologies:
There are essentially three competing technologies: FLCOS panel based [Displaytech, LBO], LCOS micro-display based [3M] and MEMS chips based [TI and Microvision]. However, the two front runner technologies remain the LCOS panels based and the MEMS chips based.
Market Leader Standalone Pico Projector:
Displaytech [and its OEMs like iView, and LBO] and 3M are competing in LCOS panels based Pico Projector direction that may be good for the standalone market but certainly is not ready for the embedded version… due to size, image size, image quality, power requirement, heat generation, and auto focus issues. 3M and Displaytech are head to head in this space and may have [a perceived] cost advantage at this stage. However, you must note Displaytech’s claim: “that a complete pico-projector subsystem, including the FLCOS panel, red-, green- and blue-LEDs, optical lenses and packaging, has a bill of material of less than $100” is misleading. When you include the cost of assembly [by the integrator] and profit mark-ups, this cost to the OEMs is more like $160. 3M may have a price advantage over Displaytech in the standalone Pico Display Engine cost to OEMs.
Texas Instruments and Microvision are competing in the standalone space with their MEMS chips based Pico Projector. Today, Microvision is the un-disputed leader in this space [with quality image, large image size, small PDE module size, low power, zero waste heat and always-in-focus] and when they do release the production PDEs for the OEM market [in the 2nd Qtr of 2010], I can assure you the cost to OEMs may be in the $170 to $190 range.
Microvision’s standalone PicoP projector SHOWwx is scheduled to be released in the US market in March of 2010. At the CES 2010, there were several units on display projecting great images in real time from an iPod… for you to touch and feel. None of the competitors was at the CES 2010 and had nothing close to SHOWwx on display… in quality or for you to touch and feel. 3M and TI showed you their Pico Projector… but did you see it projecting real video or held it in your hand. How about that sleigh of the hand focus by the TI and 3M representative?
The microdisplay vendors like Displaytech and 3M; and the MEMS micromirror companies like Texas Instrument and Microvision; are headed in two different directions. Displaytech and 3M solution uses cheap and readily available LEDs and a low-cost liquid-crystal-on-silicon panel, but companies have been manufacturing LCOS panels for years and their solution will look comparatively power hungry and expensive as time goes by. Whereas, both Texas Instrument's and Microvision's MEMS micromirror chips will become smaller, cheaper and lower power in the future, but might not look as attractive to OEMs today. Of the micromirror solutions, Microvision's MEMS solution will be the smallest, lowest power and cheapest approach, because it uses a single MEMS micromirror, but today it depends on relatively expensive green laser. Texas Instruments DLP, on the other hand, is a little bigger, more expensive and higher power today, since it uses hundreds of thousand of micromirrors, but it produces relatively good images and is readily available. However, one desirable and differentiating aspect of Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is the always-in-focus feature that no other pico projector has.
Market Leader Embedded Pico Projector:
Today, Microvision is the un-disputed leader in the embedded PicoP space [with quality image, small size, low power, zero waste heat, auto-focus and cost] and when they do release the PicoP Display Engines for the embedded market [in the 2nd Qtr of 2010], I can assure you the cost to OEMs may be in the $170 to $190 range initially... and going lower from there.
When it comes to the embedded PDEs; the unit size, power required, image quality, image size, auto-focus and cost are all important. When Microvision is ready to release the PDEs for the embedded market [in 2nd Qtr of 2010]…
• the module size will be less than 7mm,
• the power required will be less than 1.5 watts,
• the image size will be from 12” to over 100”,
• the resolution will be the current 848x480 pixels,
• the brightness will be better than the 10 lumen today,
• the projected image will always be in focus,
• and the cost to OEMs [like Motorola] is expected to be in the $170 to $190 range… and going down as the production/adoption rate increase in 2011.
In the embedded market space, I don’t see any of the competitors coming close to Microvision in this race… not even Taxes Instruments with their power guzzling million-micromirrors based Pico Projector. The likes of 3M and Displaytech will never get down to acceptable levels of size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost requirements… as they will have the “gating issues”. Pico Projectors that use million micromirrors or LCOS panels [with lenses and optics] just can’t cut the mustard in terms of physical size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost.
I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection space... Displaytech with FLCOS, 3M with LCOS, and TI with DLP technologies.
However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.
Microvision’s laser PicoP Display Engine will lead the rat pack because of the following:
• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.
• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) in the standalone version will make the competition at par with Microvision’s SHOWwx... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?
Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine produces virtually zero heat due to lasers being used as the light source and also due to on/off switching of lasers during dark image segments. Competing pico projection technologies of others produce enough waste heat to cook eggs... sunny side up for sure.
• “A wide angle view means that Microvision’s PDE can show a wider screen at closer distance!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's PDE you get…
"A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus."
• Laser based PicoP Display Engines will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.
• Microvision’s PDE has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.
• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based PicoP Display Engine do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.
• Microvision’s PDE can go from 12” to 200” diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.
• Microvision’s PDE projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.
• Microvision’ PDE projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.
• Microvision’s PDE has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.
• Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser [G-2000] from Corning.
After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…
"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."
Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/
Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx [and PDEs for embedded applications] with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.
My money is riding on Microvision.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Microvision: Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx Has the Best Image Quality
First, let me clearly state again that PC Magazine Review of SHOWwx is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Having said, let’s take a look at the projected image lumens issue again and explain why SHOWwx has the best image quality...
There are no industry standards [yet] for projected image quality!
However, projection industry players have aligned to set new standards. Here’s the link the article on this subject dated 1/7/2008…
http://news.websitegear.com/view/35069
This article states...
“From the classroom to the boardroom to the living room, vivid color improves communication-enhancing attention, comprehension and learning. Current industry specification metrics fail to highlight the differences in color light output among competing products and technologies -- leaving it virtually unreported. Despite the overwhelming use of color today, the industry has continued to rely largely on specifications that only measure black and white performance such as brightness and contrast ratio. There is growing consensus for the need for an effective, easy-to-use projector measurement metric -- Color Brightness.”
"Based on the existing industry-standard test, Color Brightness, like the current light output measure for brightness (white), is reported in lumens. Color Brightness specifies a projector's ability to deliver the primary colors of light. Today, all video; DVD, HD, digital camera and computer signals are encoded in an RGB color space. Color Brightness measures the brightness of red, green and blue, exactly matching the input signal. If a projector can produce bright red, green and blue equal to the brightness of white, it can reproduce the true color that the creators intended. If Color Brightness does not equal or come close to the white brightness, color images can appear dark, washed out and less accurate."
"Leading color experts agree. "Without this new metric, consumers are in the dark about color performance," commented Karl Lang, president of Lumita. "Two projectors that both advertise 2,000 (white) lumens can have vastly different color performance. Color brightness provides the information consumers have needed for a long time," continued Lang."
Currently, only psychophysical methods for estimating image quality are currently used and they are highly subjective. Here’s a quote from an industry expert on the subject…
“Don Williams, an image scientist from Eastman Kodak who facilitated the meeting, spoke both for imaging practitioners and for imaging scientists and other members of standards committees when he noted, "There appears to be somewhat of a consensus that there is not any reasonable way right now to look at all imaging performance measures without ambiguity."
“Subjective assessments are notoriously flawed, due not only to differences among human observers, but to limitations of devices that render images (monitors, printers), as well as the differences in ambient lighting in two or more viewing environments.”
“Intentional or unintentional use of imprecise terminology also creates ambiguity. For example, industry's marketing literature and our community's funding guidelines routinely associate image quality with unreliable metrics-such as resolution and bit depth. These performance characteristics refer to input settings and become ambiguous if used to describe output quality. The same source could be digitized by two systems that produce the same nominal results (e.g., 3,000 pixel, 24-bit RGB images) yet the quality of the images may differ significantly.”
The bottom line is, currently the manufactures [try] to differentiate their projected image quality in terms of “lumens”, “pixels” “bits”. That methodology may be fine for traditional bright lamp or LCD based image projectors. However, for laser projectors the use of lumens to define image quality is flawed… although the pixels and bits may still be useful metrics in defining the laser projection image quality.
First, let’s talk about “laser lumens” vs. “diffused light lumens”…
Laser light is very concentrated light at less than 1 degree deflection. So, 10 lumen laser light projected image [pixel by pixel] is 1,300 lumen light projection image from a traditional lamp/LCD projector about 100 inches away.
I am not the only one that agrees with that “psychophysical methods for estimating image quality”. Mr. Golan Manor, VP Technical Marketing for Explay, also happens to shares my views on the subject…
“As for actual image brightness, all of these devices project images in the range of 10 lumens. As Explay's Manor note, it's the equivalent of 1300 lumens projecting at 100 inches.”
Here’s the link to Mr. Golan Manor’s quote [at the end of the article]…
http://www.physorg.com/news94387529.html
I agree with Mr. Manor... not because he is right but also a picture speaks a thousand words.
Just take a look for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more weeks will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Having said, let’s take a look at the projected image lumens issue again and explain why SHOWwx has the best image quality...
There are no industry standards [yet] for projected image quality!
However, projection industry players have aligned to set new standards. Here’s the link the article on this subject dated 1/7/2008…
http://news.websitegear.com/view/35069
This article states...
“From the classroom to the boardroom to the living room, vivid color improves communication-enhancing attention, comprehension and learning. Current industry specification metrics fail to highlight the differences in color light output among competing products and technologies -- leaving it virtually unreported. Despite the overwhelming use of color today, the industry has continued to rely largely on specifications that only measure black and white performance such as brightness and contrast ratio. There is growing consensus for the need for an effective, easy-to-use projector measurement metric -- Color Brightness.”
"Based on the existing industry-standard test, Color Brightness, like the current light output measure for brightness (white), is reported in lumens. Color Brightness specifies a projector's ability to deliver the primary colors of light. Today, all video; DVD, HD, digital camera and computer signals are encoded in an RGB color space. Color Brightness measures the brightness of red, green and blue, exactly matching the input signal. If a projector can produce bright red, green and blue equal to the brightness of white, it can reproduce the true color that the creators intended. If Color Brightness does not equal or come close to the white brightness, color images can appear dark, washed out and less accurate."
"Leading color experts agree. "Without this new metric, consumers are in the dark about color performance," commented Karl Lang, president of Lumita. "Two projectors that both advertise 2,000 (white) lumens can have vastly different color performance. Color brightness provides the information consumers have needed for a long time," continued Lang."
Currently, only psychophysical methods for estimating image quality are currently used and they are highly subjective. Here’s a quote from an industry expert on the subject…
“Don Williams, an image scientist from Eastman Kodak who facilitated the meeting, spoke both for imaging practitioners and for imaging scientists and other members of standards committees when he noted, "There appears to be somewhat of a consensus that there is not any reasonable way right now to look at all imaging performance measures without ambiguity."
“Subjective assessments are notoriously flawed, due not only to differences among human observers, but to limitations of devices that render images (monitors, printers), as well as the differences in ambient lighting in two or more viewing environments.”
“Intentional or unintentional use of imprecise terminology also creates ambiguity. For example, industry's marketing literature and our community's funding guidelines routinely associate image quality with unreliable metrics-such as resolution and bit depth. These performance characteristics refer to input settings and become ambiguous if used to describe output quality. The same source could be digitized by two systems that produce the same nominal results (e.g., 3,000 pixel, 24-bit RGB images) yet the quality of the images may differ significantly.”
The bottom line is, currently the manufactures [try] to differentiate their projected image quality in terms of “lumens”, “pixels” “bits”. That methodology may be fine for traditional bright lamp or LCD based image projectors. However, for laser projectors the use of lumens to define image quality is flawed… although the pixels and bits may still be useful metrics in defining the laser projection image quality.
First, let’s talk about “laser lumens” vs. “diffused light lumens”…
Laser light is very concentrated light at less than 1 degree deflection. So, 10 lumen laser light projected image [pixel by pixel] is 1,300 lumen light projection image from a traditional lamp/LCD projector about 100 inches away.
I am not the only one that agrees with that “psychophysical methods for estimating image quality”. Mr. Golan Manor, VP Technical Marketing for Explay, also happens to shares my views on the subject…
“As for actual image brightness, all of these devices project images in the range of 10 lumens. As Explay's Manor note, it's the equivalent of 1300 lumens projecting at 100 inches.”
Here’s the link to Mr. Golan Manor’s quote [at the end of the article]…
http://www.physorg.com/news94387529.html
I agree with Mr. Manor... not because he is right but also a picture speaks a thousand words.
Just take a look for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more weeks will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Microvision: Embedded Pico Projector Holy Grail (Part 2)
I just want to make it very clear that...
“I did not say that the embedded pico projector was not the big money play... because it is.”
However, the stand alone PicoP as an accessory is even bigger market. Anyone who ignores the accessory PicoP market is ignorant or just plain arrogant in my book. Intel did not differentiate between CPUs when they went after the market with their "Intel Inside" slogan.
What would "Image by PicoP" mean, if a large population of stand alone accessory pico projectors had someone else's display engine inside? It will be more show than substance, don't you think? Besides, you don’t concede a large segment of the market to the competition without a fight. It’s all in the mindset that oozes with resolve, a sense of ruthlessness and urgency… something missing, so it seems, at Microvision. I call Microvision management’s mindset as: “babes with muted enthusiasm”.
Here’s a comment from Warren at the Google group for Microvision...
“I, for one, would not buy an embedded smart phone and embedded dig camera and embedded laptop and embedded video camera. I would buy an embedded phone, but not all things embedded – at least not until the prices for embedded devices come down. In the short term, I would buy an SA PicoP for all those devices and, like I said, the embedded phone. But I am not everyone.”
Well said Warren... because many others have expressed the same very sentiment.
At times, I get over 1,000 hits a day at the blog followed by many e-mails... and the survey says exactly what you just said. From a year ago report that I published, I have access to hundreds that subscribed and they say [more or less] what you just said.
I play cricket in a New Jersey Cricket League, in a community of over 30,000 IT professionals. And over the years, and through my writings, they have been made quite aware of PicoP display technology and Microvision as the potential investment opportunity... they said [more or less] the same thing in essence.
So, there you have it... more or less that the sentiment of a large population survey, done for free over an 18 month period. Just because the survey did not cost Microvision a million or two... does not mean it holds no value or does not represent the sentiment of a significant number of potential customers of pico projectors.
I would not have written such a strong worded post unless I had some substantial basis... because I do.
Someone hiding behind their anonymous Yahoo ID said this at the message board for Microvision...
“Anant Goel, how is the SA market bigger than embedded? Let's see: Laptops, cameras, camcorders, cell phones and anything with a TV or VGA out will have embedded PicoP so tell me how the SA will be a bigger market than embedded.”
Here’s the short answer…
The competition will not let Microvision monopolize or corner the embedded market… period.
The competition will come-up with dozens of explanations as to why the embedded in every thing digital is not such a good idea… like total cost of ownership, compromised functionality of the host, complexity of the host device, lack of flexibility, limited resource sharing opportunities, higher probability of common mode failure that kicks the host out of operation and so on.
Also, the competition [especially DLP based PicoP] will push the stand alone accessory as a piggy back device that gives the best of both words… as a PicoP with all the benefits of ownership as a stand alone unit, but also with piggy back capability approaching almost embedded functionality. In other words, the competition will try hard to sell the masses with all benefits of PicoP as an accessory unit and in the process hope to overcome the shortcomings of their embedded display engine by offering a piggy back solution.
It could just work for the competition... considering the sheer number and size of some of the players competing for pico projection market share... and possible dominance.
Competition is larger not only in numbers but also in dollars that they can spend to make a plausible case for stand alone PicoP as a compelling alternative to an embedded one from Microvision... for a long time. And time is of essence... because more time it takes for embedded PicoP adoption.... the more time the competition has to find alternate technology to get around Microvision advantage.
For the sake of our investment in MVIS stock, I hope the Microvision management has the vision and foresight to embrace the stand alone PicoP as an accessory unit with the same passion as they have for embedded version.
Here’s little story about IBM that has made the history books…
I was among the first batch of authorized IBM PC Dealers in the US... in early 1979.
IBM never thought that PC would amount to much in their wildest dreams... until it was too late. There was total lack of vision [about the PC] among the pin stripped suit/white shirt stiffs. The top management did not have much interest in the PC business from the beginning to almost the end... and it showed at every middle management level.
Worldwide adoption of the PC shocked many at IBM and destroyed hundreds of promising careers. Lack of vision or arrogance to not admit a mistake in judgment, can be detrimental to the financial health of a small company... but not IBM because they are big and at the time they had other bigger fish [the services business] to fry.
I can write pages on this subject... but I'll not burden you with that now and here. However, I must say that Microvision brass better have vision to see the stand alone pico projector as a viable, durable and profitable product line that will be around, in one form or the other, for a long time.
A few more months delay to market may not hurt Microvision... but lack of vision, ignorance, arrogance or stubbornness would certainly do them in.
[PicoP is the registered trademark of Microvision for their pico projection display module/engine]
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
“I did not say that the embedded pico projector was not the big money play... because it is.”
However, the stand alone PicoP as an accessory is even bigger market. Anyone who ignores the accessory PicoP market is ignorant or just plain arrogant in my book. Intel did not differentiate between CPUs when they went after the market with their "Intel Inside" slogan.
What would "Image by PicoP" mean, if a large population of stand alone accessory pico projectors had someone else's display engine inside? It will be more show than substance, don't you think? Besides, you don’t concede a large segment of the market to the competition without a fight. It’s all in the mindset that oozes with resolve, a sense of ruthlessness and urgency… something missing, so it seems, at Microvision. I call Microvision management’s mindset as: “babes with muted enthusiasm”.
Here’s a comment from Warren at the Google group for Microvision...
“I, for one, would not buy an embedded smart phone and embedded dig camera and embedded laptop and embedded video camera. I would buy an embedded phone, but not all things embedded – at least not until the prices for embedded devices come down. In the short term, I would buy an SA PicoP for all those devices and, like I said, the embedded phone. But I am not everyone.”
Well said Warren... because many others have expressed the same very sentiment.
At times, I get over 1,000 hits a day at the blog followed by many e-mails... and the survey says exactly what you just said. From a year ago report that I published, I have access to hundreds that subscribed and they say [more or less] what you just said.
I play cricket in a New Jersey Cricket League, in a community of over 30,000 IT professionals. And over the years, and through my writings, they have been made quite aware of PicoP display technology and Microvision as the potential investment opportunity... they said [more or less] the same thing in essence.
So, there you have it... more or less that the sentiment of a large population survey, done for free over an 18 month period. Just because the survey did not cost Microvision a million or two... does not mean it holds no value or does not represent the sentiment of a significant number of potential customers of pico projectors.
I would not have written such a strong worded post unless I had some substantial basis... because I do.
Someone hiding behind their anonymous Yahoo ID said this at the message board for Microvision...
“Anant Goel, how is the SA market bigger than embedded? Let's see: Laptops, cameras, camcorders, cell phones and anything with a TV or VGA out will have embedded PicoP so tell me how the SA will be a bigger market than embedded.”
Here’s the short answer…
The competition will not let Microvision monopolize or corner the embedded market… period.
The competition will come-up with dozens of explanations as to why the embedded in every thing digital is not such a good idea… like total cost of ownership, compromised functionality of the host, complexity of the host device, lack of flexibility, limited resource sharing opportunities, higher probability of common mode failure that kicks the host out of operation and so on.
Also, the competition [especially DLP based PicoP] will push the stand alone accessory as a piggy back device that gives the best of both words… as a PicoP with all the benefits of ownership as a stand alone unit, but also with piggy back capability approaching almost embedded functionality. In other words, the competition will try hard to sell the masses with all benefits of PicoP as an accessory unit and in the process hope to overcome the shortcomings of their embedded display engine by offering a piggy back solution.
It could just work for the competition... considering the sheer number and size of some of the players competing for pico projection market share... and possible dominance.
Competition is larger not only in numbers but also in dollars that they can spend to make a plausible case for stand alone PicoP as a compelling alternative to an embedded one from Microvision... for a long time. And time is of essence... because more time it takes for embedded PicoP adoption.... the more time the competition has to find alternate technology to get around Microvision advantage.
For the sake of our investment in MVIS stock, I hope the Microvision management has the vision and foresight to embrace the stand alone PicoP as an accessory unit with the same passion as they have for embedded version.
Here’s little story about IBM that has made the history books…
I was among the first batch of authorized IBM PC Dealers in the US... in early 1979.
IBM never thought that PC would amount to much in their wildest dreams... until it was too late. There was total lack of vision [about the PC] among the pin stripped suit/white shirt stiffs. The top management did not have much interest in the PC business from the beginning to almost the end... and it showed at every middle management level.
Worldwide adoption of the PC shocked many at IBM and destroyed hundreds of promising careers. Lack of vision or arrogance to not admit a mistake in judgment, can be detrimental to the financial health of a small company... but not IBM because they are big and at the time they had other bigger fish [the services business] to fry.
I can write pages on this subject... but I'll not burden you with that now and here. However, I must say that Microvision brass better have vision to see the stand alone pico projector as a viable, durable and profitable product line that will be around, in one form or the other, for a long time.
A few more months delay to market may not hurt Microvision... but lack of vision, ignorance, arrogance or stubbornness would certainly do them in.
[PicoP is the registered trademark of Microvision for their pico projection display module/engine]
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Microvision Announces Pricing of Public Common Stock Offering
Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 9:41 am EST, Thursday November 19, 2009
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS - News), a global leader in light scanning technologies, today announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 6.7million shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $3.00 per share. Microvision has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1.0million shares of its common stock to cover over-allotments, if any. Microvision expects to receive net proceeds, after deducting the underwriting discount and estimated offering expenses, of approximately $18.7million from the offering, or $21.5million if the underwriters exercise their over-allotment option in full. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. and Thomas Weisel Partners LLC are the joint book-running managers and Craig Hallum Capital Group LLC is acting as co-manager for the offering. The offering is expected to close on November 24, 2009, subject to customary closing conditions.
Microvision intends to use the net proceeds of the offering for general corporate purposes, including, but not limited to, working capital and capital expenditures.
The securities described above are being offered by Microvision pursuant to registration statements on Form S-3 previously filed and declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities in the offering. The offering may be made only by means of the prospectus supplement and the related prospectus relating to the proposed offering, copies of which may be obtained, when available, from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Attention: Syndicate Prospectus Department, 300 Madison Avenue, 4th Floor, New York, NY, 10017, by telephone at (212) 667-8563, or via email at EquityProspectus@opco.com.
Continues…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Announces-Pricing-bw-160646938.html?x=0&.v=1
The market reaction to additional 7.7 million shares issued, assuming over-allotment option is exercised, to raise $21.5 million in funding has been lot more violent then the 10% dilution [from additional shares] would suggest. To the naked eye the dilution looks like 10% from additional shares. However, when you look at the offering price of $3, a discount of 27% from the closing stock price of $4.11, it makes sense why the stock would drop so much… almost approaching the $3 dollar mark.
That is the management sin of doing a secondary public offering at deep discounts, like 27%, and then pays $1.6 million in fees to secure funding. Obviously, I’m not aware of the circumstances or reasons for the kind of a deal that the management made with Investment Bankers [and brokers] involved. However, one thing is for sure, that the existing shareholders have been diluted─ more than what the management intended to do, but also the unsuspecting shareholders were left at the mercy of unscrupulous financial wizards from Openheimer, Thomas Weisel, and Craig Hallum. And by that I mean the unscrupulous ways of stock manipulation and shorting against the anticipated delivery of stock [6.7 million to 7.7 million shares] from Microvision treasury.
That’s the American Investment Banker, Venture Capitalist and a Broker at work to rip out the heart and soul of a young and promising company in exchange for maximizing their take of the loot. You guessed it! The deep discount of 27% and $1.6 million in fees was, obviously, not enough.
Is that the American way?
I guess so…just look around you and you will see who caused the systemic global financial meltdown… Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch…etc… etc.
I’m sure you get the picture…
“The good old boy network of financial wizards at Wall Street”
Isn’t it?
We know that given the opportunity, the Investment Bankers and Brokers would do what we suspect them to do to make an extra buck. What we don’t know, however, is how naïve and financially unsophisticated the current management at Microvision really is?
It seems like, that the MVIS stock has been manipulated by shorting [from $5.70 to $3.70 in two week period] coming into the announcement of public offering and then covering the short position [from $3.15 to $3.27] after the announcement. The only entities that can do this sort of manipulation would be the parties involved in the public offering. Assuming that Microvision management kept a lid on the details of public offering… the only other parties to the deal would be Oppenheimer, Thomas Weisel and Craig Hallum Capital.
At the close of the day, on November 19th, the MVIS closed at $3.27 [down 84 cents for over 20% down] on a trading volume that is over 7.35million shares [representing about 10% of the float].
What a mess!
Microvision management could have been much smarter in how they handled the secondary public financing of the company. It does not take a rocket scientist to sell 7.7 million shares at 27% discount and pay $1.6 million in fees to raise $21.5 million in total… assuming the option to 1 million shares over-allotment is exercised.
Looking at how 7.35 million shares traded on November 19th, the day of announcement, it is apparent that a “Stock Rights Offering” to existing shareholders could have been easily subscribed. Stock rights offering is a very common practice in London financial markets [and Asian countries] and is the most preferred mode of financing among conservative and financially savvy CFOs/CEOs.
Do a Google search on "Rights Offering" and you will find hundreds of companies doing it... right here in the US. A stock rights offering is a very basic and simple way of funding... something that the 40+ year old CFOs/CEOs find too simplistic in light of their shining MBA's and Six Sigma Black Belt certifications.
Over the last two years, all the financing that has taken place at Microvision makes you wonder about the financial savvy and financial negotiating skills of that in-charge. These are very blunt and critical words… but I say it as I see it. As an investor in MVIS stock, with hard earned money on the line, I don’t think I need to be pussy footing around the financial management savvy of the current management and worry about their fragile feelings.
So, having said all that, which sounds more like venting my frustration, where we go from here?
First, let me advise you to do your own due diligence. And if you’re due diligence tells you to hold your position in MVIS and possibly add at these discounted price level... then do so? Because that’s exactly how I feel in-spite of all that has taken place over the last two trading days.
Next, the bottom line, as I see it, and then a few words to explain why I feel that way…
“Microvision story is very compelling and it remains the opportunity of a lifetime… there is no doubt about that. Personally, I would hold my current position─ except for what I may have to sell to cover my margin calls, and then in the future add to my position when and if my finances permit me to do so.”
I am certainly disappointed in the management’s handling of this public offering… that exposed the unsuspecting retail investors to the unscrupulous ways of Wall Street wizards. I am not surprised that this offering has had such a negative impact on the MVIS stock price. When a company gives 27% discount to the Wall Street wizards, you would expect the stock price to eventually gravitate towards that offering price… $3 dollars in this case.
In my humble opinion, the long-term outlook for this company has not changed. I say “my humble opinion”, because the market action of November 19th and the resultant financial impact on portfolio valuations can make even the strongest of believers question in what they truly believe… a sure sign of humility.
In hindsight, maybe there was a better way to do the financing. Maybe there was a better way to manage the SHOWwx launch. Maybe there was a better way to announce the OEM partner names. Maybe there was a better way to announce the purchase order from the global mobile phone carrier.
That’s just too many “maybe”… but then again I'm not with the company, so I really don't know what’s causing this muted enthusiasm while giving away the store at below wholesale prices.
I don’t think that Microvision's management is inept, or trying to compromise the interests of the company or the shareholders, and I certainly don't think they have any ulterior motives. If I thought that, I would not have invested in this company for the long term and just traded for quick profits… or just sold every share and walked away. If anyone here truly thinks that's the case, I would encourage them to do the same.
Pico projection technology has a big future, and Microvision's laser PicoP display technology is the best platform for delivering applications to an enormous global market.
Additional capital was needed… there is no doubt about that. Now Microvision has that capital… at least for the next year or so.
It is disappointing to see the many thousands of dollars in portfolio value disappear in the short term. However, the long term potential and the opportunity of a lifetime stays intact.
Consider this…
• Stock prices go down as well as up─ and we had a nice ride up, from 77 cents to $5.70, and now a rough ride back down to $3.32.
• Stock prices may resume again when we hear that Osram has started shipping the green lasers in quantities, product is being sold by Mint, Uniden, Vodafone [name not yet officially disclosed], and as we start to get some more information about the embedded version of laser PicoP display engine and its applications.
• The fundamental story has not changed. Microvision has the killer app for consuming mobile content, and all signs point to that market expanding at a huge pace.
• We're not there yet, as evidenced by the continuing need to raise funds, but we're headed in the right direction as we get closer every day.
Some of us, I’m sure, are still sitting on a huge gain for the year. The extra profits that we had after the late August run-up, and before the recent drop from $4.11 to $3.32, is the value that was in the portfolio that you didn't have back in early August. When the portfolios swell in value, the gains feel great…and the losses make you anxious, but I have a lot of confidence that we haven't seen the last of the gains.
So that's my take on the current funding… and a few words of comfort from experience.
Excessive dilution, stock shorting and manipulation are all very sickening… but it's something we have to deal with and learn to understand as the ways of the Wall Street West.
You and I can criticize management for the way the public offering, to raise $21.5 million in funding, was done but none of us really knows the full story.
So, give the management the benefit of the doubt, do some due diligence, and look at the future potential of Microvision stock investment with a fresh perspective.
If you see, what I see… you should hold your current position and add to it at these low prices… if and when your finances permit you to do so.
[If some of the words look a bit familiar towards the end... then you have read Paul Anderson post on Yahoo Message Board... just like I did. Our writing style is not much different... so here is the credit to you Mr. Anderson before you get bent out of shape.]
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 9:41 am EST, Thursday November 19, 2009
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS - News), a global leader in light scanning technologies, today announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 6.7million shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $3.00 per share. Microvision has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1.0million shares of its common stock to cover over-allotments, if any. Microvision expects to receive net proceeds, after deducting the underwriting discount and estimated offering expenses, of approximately $18.7million from the offering, or $21.5million if the underwriters exercise their over-allotment option in full. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. and Thomas Weisel Partners LLC are the joint book-running managers and Craig Hallum Capital Group LLC is acting as co-manager for the offering. The offering is expected to close on November 24, 2009, subject to customary closing conditions.
Microvision intends to use the net proceeds of the offering for general corporate purposes, including, but not limited to, working capital and capital expenditures.
The securities described above are being offered by Microvision pursuant to registration statements on Form S-3 previously filed and declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities in the offering. The offering may be made only by means of the prospectus supplement and the related prospectus relating to the proposed offering, copies of which may be obtained, when available, from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Attention: Syndicate Prospectus Department, 300 Madison Avenue, 4th Floor, New York, NY, 10017, by telephone at (212) 667-8563, or via email at EquityProspectus@opco.com.
Continues…
*****
Here’s the link to the news from this morning…http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Announces-Pricing-bw-160646938.html?x=0&.v=1
The market reaction to additional 7.7 million shares issued, assuming over-allotment option is exercised, to raise $21.5 million in funding has been lot more violent then the 10% dilution [from additional shares] would suggest. To the naked eye the dilution looks like 10% from additional shares. However, when you look at the offering price of $3, a discount of 27% from the closing stock price of $4.11, it makes sense why the stock would drop so much… almost approaching the $3 dollar mark.
That is the management sin of doing a secondary public offering at deep discounts, like 27%, and then pays $1.6 million in fees to secure funding. Obviously, I’m not aware of the circumstances or reasons for the kind of a deal that the management made with Investment Bankers [and brokers] involved. However, one thing is for sure, that the existing shareholders have been diluted─ more than what the management intended to do, but also the unsuspecting shareholders were left at the mercy of unscrupulous financial wizards from Openheimer, Thomas Weisel, and Craig Hallum. And by that I mean the unscrupulous ways of stock manipulation and shorting against the anticipated delivery of stock [6.7 million to 7.7 million shares] from Microvision treasury.
That’s the American Investment Banker, Venture Capitalist and a Broker at work to rip out the heart and soul of a young and promising company in exchange for maximizing their take of the loot. You guessed it! The deep discount of 27% and $1.6 million in fees was, obviously, not enough.
Is that the American way?
I guess so…just look around you and you will see who caused the systemic global financial meltdown… Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch…etc… etc.
I’m sure you get the picture…
“The good old boy network of financial wizards at Wall Street”
Isn’t it?
We know that given the opportunity, the Investment Bankers and Brokers would do what we suspect them to do to make an extra buck. What we don’t know, however, is how naïve and financially unsophisticated the current management at Microvision really is?
It seems like, that the MVIS stock has been manipulated by shorting [from $5.70 to $3.70 in two week period] coming into the announcement of public offering and then covering the short position [from $3.15 to $3.27] after the announcement. The only entities that can do this sort of manipulation would be the parties involved in the public offering. Assuming that Microvision management kept a lid on the details of public offering… the only other parties to the deal would be Oppenheimer, Thomas Weisel and Craig Hallum Capital.
At the close of the day, on November 19th, the MVIS closed at $3.27 [down 84 cents for over 20% down] on a trading volume that is over 7.35million shares [representing about 10% of the float].
What a mess!
Microvision management could have been much smarter in how they handled the secondary public financing of the company. It does not take a rocket scientist to sell 7.7 million shares at 27% discount and pay $1.6 million in fees to raise $21.5 million in total… assuming the option to 1 million shares over-allotment is exercised.
Looking at how 7.35 million shares traded on November 19th, the day of announcement, it is apparent that a “Stock Rights Offering” to existing shareholders could have been easily subscribed. Stock rights offering is a very common practice in London financial markets [and Asian countries] and is the most preferred mode of financing among conservative and financially savvy CFOs/CEOs.
Do a Google search on "Rights Offering" and you will find hundreds of companies doing it... right here in the US. A stock rights offering is a very basic and simple way of funding... something that the 40+ year old CFOs/CEOs find too simplistic in light of their shining MBA's and Six Sigma Black Belt certifications.
Over the last two years, all the financing that has taken place at Microvision makes you wonder about the financial savvy and financial negotiating skills of that in-charge. These are very blunt and critical words… but I say it as I see it. As an investor in MVIS stock, with hard earned money on the line, I don’t think I need to be pussy footing around the financial management savvy of the current management and worry about their fragile feelings.
So, having said all that, which sounds more like venting my frustration, where we go from here?
First, let me advise you to do your own due diligence. And if you’re due diligence tells you to hold your position in MVIS and possibly add at these discounted price level... then do so? Because that’s exactly how I feel in-spite of all that has taken place over the last two trading days.
Next, the bottom line, as I see it, and then a few words to explain why I feel that way…
“Microvision story is very compelling and it remains the opportunity of a lifetime… there is no doubt about that. Personally, I would hold my current position─ except for what I may have to sell to cover my margin calls, and then in the future add to my position when and if my finances permit me to do so.”
I am certainly disappointed in the management’s handling of this public offering… that exposed the unsuspecting retail investors to the unscrupulous ways of Wall Street wizards. I am not surprised that this offering has had such a negative impact on the MVIS stock price. When a company gives 27% discount to the Wall Street wizards, you would expect the stock price to eventually gravitate towards that offering price… $3 dollars in this case.
In my humble opinion, the long-term outlook for this company has not changed. I say “my humble opinion”, because the market action of November 19th and the resultant financial impact on portfolio valuations can make even the strongest of believers question in what they truly believe… a sure sign of humility.
In hindsight, maybe there was a better way to do the financing. Maybe there was a better way to manage the SHOWwx launch. Maybe there was a better way to announce the OEM partner names. Maybe there was a better way to announce the purchase order from the global mobile phone carrier.
That’s just too many “maybe”… but then again I'm not with the company, so I really don't know what’s causing this muted enthusiasm while giving away the store at below wholesale prices.
I don’t think that Microvision's management is inept, or trying to compromise the interests of the company or the shareholders, and I certainly don't think they have any ulterior motives. If I thought that, I would not have invested in this company for the long term and just traded for quick profits… or just sold every share and walked away. If anyone here truly thinks that's the case, I would encourage them to do the same.
Pico projection technology has a big future, and Microvision's laser PicoP display technology is the best platform for delivering applications to an enormous global market.
Additional capital was needed… there is no doubt about that. Now Microvision has that capital… at least for the next year or so.
It is disappointing to see the many thousands of dollars in portfolio value disappear in the short term. However, the long term potential and the opportunity of a lifetime stays intact.
Consider this…
• Stock prices go down as well as up─ and we had a nice ride up, from 77 cents to $5.70, and now a rough ride back down to $3.32.
• Stock prices may resume again when we hear that Osram has started shipping the green lasers in quantities, product is being sold by Mint, Uniden, Vodafone [name not yet officially disclosed], and as we start to get some more information about the embedded version of laser PicoP display engine and its applications.
• The fundamental story has not changed. Microvision has the killer app for consuming mobile content, and all signs point to that market expanding at a huge pace.
• We're not there yet, as evidenced by the continuing need to raise funds, but we're headed in the right direction as we get closer every day.
Some of us, I’m sure, are still sitting on a huge gain for the year. The extra profits that we had after the late August run-up, and before the recent drop from $4.11 to $3.32, is the value that was in the portfolio that you didn't have back in early August. When the portfolios swell in value, the gains feel great…and the losses make you anxious, but I have a lot of confidence that we haven't seen the last of the gains.
So that's my take on the current funding… and a few words of comfort from experience.
Excessive dilution, stock shorting and manipulation are all very sickening… but it's something we have to deal with and learn to understand as the ways of the Wall Street West.
You and I can criticize management for the way the public offering, to raise $21.5 million in funding, was done but none of us really knows the full story.
So, give the management the benefit of the doubt, do some due diligence, and look at the future potential of Microvision stock investment with a fresh perspective.
If you see, what I see… you should hold your current position and add to it at these low prices… if and when your finances permit you to do so.
[If some of the words look a bit familiar towards the end... then you have read Paul Anderson post on Yahoo Message Board... just like I did. Our writing style is not much different... so here is the credit to you Mr. Anderson before you get bent out of shape.]
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Friday, November 6, 2009
Microvision: Short Squeeze Coming Soon
Get ready for short squeeze fellow Microvision investors.
A fast-moving, virtually unstoppable phenomenon that will shock most investors and leave many speculators ruined, even as it makes some of you longs rich.
Right now, most traders are making the exact WRONG move at the exact WRONG time. Short interest in Microvision stock is skyrocketing─ at 8.4 million shares as of October 15th, as all the SHORT lemmings trundle on towards the cliff.
Get ready for a replay of the summer rally— only bigger, faster and even more brutal to those on the wrong side of the move.
First consider the news from this morning…
Opnext to Supply Microvision with Red Laser Diodes for Mobile Pico Projectors
FREMONT, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Opnext, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPXT), a global leader in the design and manufacturing of optical modules and components, today announced that the Company has begun shipping its red laser diodes to Microvision for its PicoP® laser projection technology.
With this relationship, Opnext will supply red laser diodes for Microvision’s PicoP display engine. Potential applications for the PicoP technology include ultra-miniature displays for embedded or accessory applications for mobile phones, personal media players, laptops and future wearable display devices.
Laser-based microprojectors have a unique combination of features that are optimal for mobile device users, including infinite focus, rich color, and high contrast and resolution. Opnext’s red laser family of diodes play an important role in this rapidly emerging mobile-display market by providing customers with a visually rich multimedia experience.
“We are very proud that our red lasers developed for the pico projector market have been selected by Microvision, a true leader in the industry,” commented Gilles Bouchard, Opnext President and CEO. “This is a perfect example of how Opnext is driving new and exciting applications through innovation and partnership.”
Alexander Tokman, Microvision CEO stated, “Opnext is a leader in high performance red laser diodes for projection applications and we are pleased to be working with the Opnext team on this exciting endeavor.”
About Opnext
Opnext (NASDAQ:OPXT) is the optical technology partner of choice supplying systems providers and OEMs worldwide with the industry's largest portfolio of 10G and higher next generation optical products and solutions. The Company's industry expertise, future-focused thinking and commitment to research and development combine in bringing to market the most advanced technology to the communications, defense, security and biomedical industries. Formed out of Hitachi, Opnext has built on more than 30 years experience in advanced technology to establish its broad portfolio of solutions and solid reputation for excellence in service and delivering value to its customers. For additional information, visit www.opnext.com.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20091106005127&newsLang=en
The significance of this news is quite obvious…
“If Opnext is shipping the red laser diodes, then Osram is shipping the blue and green lasers as well.”
Think about it?
Why would Microvision need red laser diodes, if they did not have the supply of the blue and green from Osram? You do remember that Osram is the supplier of blue and green laser modules!
Here’s the link to that news…
http://www.your-story.org/microvision-signs-multi-year-agreement-with-osram-for-supply-of-green-and-blue-lasers-26113/
Microvision Signs Multi-Year Agreement with OSRAM for Supply of Green and Blue Lasers
Published Monday, September 7, 2009, 18:55
REDMOND, Wash.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Microvision, Inc. (Nasdaq:MVIS), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and image capture products for mobility applications announced today that it has entered into a supply agreement with OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH for the supply of green and blue lasers — key components of Microvision’s PicoP® display engine. The announcement is the second Microvision has made in recent months regarding procurement of green lasers for use in the company’s PicoP® display engine and accessory pico projector product called SHOWWX™.
Following recent success commercializing its blue laser technology, OSRAM has fourth quarter commercialization plans for its green frequency doubled laser for use in Microvision’s PicoP display engine. OSRAM is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of optoelectronic semiconductors for lighting, sensor and visualization applications.
That leads me to believe, we can expect to see more announcements of purchase orders from OEMs and mobile phone operators in the future… month over month.
The recent pull back in MVIS stock price was due to the uncertainty associated with green laser supply. With Osram coming on board, with their superior and cheaper green lasers, the ball game has changed and the perceived uncertainty just got squashed in the bud.
We have discussed in my previous posts…
“Having established the huge market size [and consumer preferences] for pico projector lets move on to identifying the leading pico projection technology that hopes to fulfill the consumer needs…
Please read this very informative post on the subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in.html
Now consider this about the recent activity in Microvision stock…
Stock Volatility: Over the last few weeks, both the “Historical Volatility” and “Implied Volatility” have come down gradually. Currently, the HV is 80 and the IV is 96. Looks like we now have more believers [long] than speculators [shorts] on board. Also, this stock is now part of Russell 2000/3000 and as such is subject to small cap market volatility… which has been coming down in recent weeks.
Volatility is unavoidable in small-cap investing. It can be a gut-wrenching, stress-inducing part of the small-cap investing experience, or it can be the grease that runs the profit machine. Where a 3% move in Microsoft or McDonald's would be out of the ordinary, good or bad news can routinely move small caps' share prices more than 10%. It can be tough for an investor to handle, but the determining factor is self-discipline.
• Perform due diligence before pulling the trigger to buy or sell
Investors sometimes invest without understanding the company's business. Then, at the first sign of negative volatility, they finally scramble to look at the firm's financial statements. That's being reactive, not proactive. You need to understand a company before investing in it. If the stock happens to rally to unattractive levels while you're doing your research, you'll nonetheless be in a great position to buy when the stock inevitably dips. If the stock falls, you'll know more about the company and therefore be less prone to panic. Cognitive scientists have determined that uncertainty is one of the most stressful and painful emotional states. Prior due diligence reduces the element of surprise and is the most effective way of minimizing investment uncertainty.
• Due diligence does not only include checking the criteria for buying a stock. With rare exception, it should also include formulating the conditions for selling based on the stock's valuation. Because small-cap companies often have greater growth prospects than blue-chip companies, your reasons for selling a small-cap company are more apt to change
Stock Short Interest: Over the last few weeks, the short interest has gone up and now stands at 13% [8.38 million shares] of the float [63.03 million shares]. All in all, at the current low average volume per day, it will take about 10 days to cover… about 8.38 million shares short… trading 895,000 shares per day average over the last 3 months.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=MVIS&selected=MVIS
Stock Trading Range: For a period of four weeks [from September 21 to October 22] the stock traded over $5 in a very tight range of “$5.02 to $5.52”. We have seen some very volatile days on Wall Street in the last 10 days [from October 24 to November 4]… and the stock has come down to $3.70 and now seems to be holding at this level as a very strong support… and waiting for next announcement of news. The stock price has crossed under the 50 day moving average [at $4.50] and seems to have very strong support at $3.66 or so. This is where the stock price was before the commercial launch of SHOWwx [on September 15th] and three purchase orders in October. The reason for the stock price drop, in my opinion, is due mainly to the uncertainty associated with quantities of green lasers that are essential to fulfilling the three initial purchase orders.
Here’s the stock chart…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
However, if you look at the P&F [point and figure] chart the stock is still in the uptrend channel with a “bullish price” of $8.31.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=MVIS,P&listNum=
Stock Holding: Institutions hold about 14.40% and the Insiders hold over 16.93% of the outstanding stock [63.19 million float on a fully diluted basis]. This means that over 68.67% of the float is held by retail investors. This is a very wide distribution of MVIS stock… a good sign for PPS support [during lean times] and PPS momentum [during good times] when institutions finally wake-up and come looking to take position in the MVIS stock directly… or decide to invest aggressively in small cap stocks indexed by Russell 2000/3000.
My technical indicators are forecasting another big run-up in the market and the MVIS stock over the next 6-8 weeks, or longer.
Most investors missed out in March and August. And most investors are missing out again right now.
Any pullback in Microvision stock price will be short-lived.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
A fast-moving, virtually unstoppable phenomenon that will shock most investors and leave many speculators ruined, even as it makes some of you longs rich.
Right now, most traders are making the exact WRONG move at the exact WRONG time. Short interest in Microvision stock is skyrocketing─ at 8.4 million shares as of October 15th, as all the SHORT lemmings trundle on towards the cliff.
Get ready for a replay of the summer rally— only bigger, faster and even more brutal to those on the wrong side of the move.
First consider the news from this morning…
Opnext to Supply Microvision with Red Laser Diodes for Mobile Pico Projectors
FREMONT, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Opnext, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPXT), a global leader in the design and manufacturing of optical modules and components, today announced that the Company has begun shipping its red laser diodes to Microvision for its PicoP® laser projection technology.
With this relationship, Opnext will supply red laser diodes for Microvision’s PicoP display engine. Potential applications for the PicoP technology include ultra-miniature displays for embedded or accessory applications for mobile phones, personal media players, laptops and future wearable display devices.
Laser-based microprojectors have a unique combination of features that are optimal for mobile device users, including infinite focus, rich color, and high contrast and resolution. Opnext’s red laser family of diodes play an important role in this rapidly emerging mobile-display market by providing customers with a visually rich multimedia experience.
“We are very proud that our red lasers developed for the pico projector market have been selected by Microvision, a true leader in the industry,” commented Gilles Bouchard, Opnext President and CEO. “This is a perfect example of how Opnext is driving new and exciting applications through innovation and partnership.”
Alexander Tokman, Microvision CEO stated, “Opnext is a leader in high performance red laser diodes for projection applications and we are pleased to be working with the Opnext team on this exciting endeavor.”
About Opnext
Opnext (NASDAQ:OPXT) is the optical technology partner of choice supplying systems providers and OEMs worldwide with the industry's largest portfolio of 10G and higher next generation optical products and solutions. The Company's industry expertise, future-focused thinking and commitment to research and development combine in bringing to market the most advanced technology to the communications, defense, security and biomedical industries. Formed out of Hitachi, Opnext has built on more than 30 years experience in advanced technology to establish its broad portfolio of solutions and solid reputation for excellence in service and delivering value to its customers. For additional information, visit www.opnext.com.
Continued…
*****
Here's the link...http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20091106005127&newsLang=en
The significance of this news is quite obvious…
“If Opnext is shipping the red laser diodes, then Osram is shipping the blue and green lasers as well.”
Think about it?
Why would Microvision need red laser diodes, if they did not have the supply of the blue and green from Osram? You do remember that Osram is the supplier of blue and green laser modules!
Here’s the link to that news…
http://www.your-story.org/microvision-signs-multi-year-agreement-with-osram-for-supply-of-green-and-blue-lasers-26113/
Microvision Signs Multi-Year Agreement with OSRAM for Supply of Green and Blue Lasers
Published Monday, September 7, 2009, 18:55
REDMOND, Wash.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Microvision, Inc. (Nasdaq:MVIS), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and image capture products for mobility applications announced today that it has entered into a supply agreement with OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH for the supply of green and blue lasers — key components of Microvision’s PicoP® display engine. The announcement is the second Microvision has made in recent months regarding procurement of green lasers for use in the company’s PicoP® display engine and accessory pico projector product called SHOWWX™.
Following recent success commercializing its blue laser technology, OSRAM has fourth quarter commercialization plans for its green frequency doubled laser for use in Microvision’s PicoP display engine. OSRAM is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of optoelectronic semiconductors for lighting, sensor and visualization applications.
Continued…
*****
In a nutshell, that means the second supplier of green laser Osram is on board with additional supplies and the quantities of SHOWwx laser PicoP projectors just more than doubled. With Corning and Osram both delivering on the green laser contracts, the quantities of SHOWwx that can be shipped now will increase month over month. That leads me to believe, we can expect to see more announcements of purchase orders from OEMs and mobile phone operators in the future… month over month.
The recent pull back in MVIS stock price was due to the uncertainty associated with green laser supply. With Osram coming on board, with their superior and cheaper green lasers, the ball game has changed and the perceived uncertainty just got squashed in the bud.
We have discussed in my previous posts…
“Having established the huge market size [and consumer preferences] for pico projector lets move on to identifying the leading pico projection technology that hopes to fulfill the consumer needs…
Please read this very informative post on the subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in.html
Now consider this about the recent activity in Microvision stock…
Stock Volatility: Over the last few weeks, both the “Historical Volatility” and “Implied Volatility” have come down gradually. Currently, the HV is 80 and the IV is 96. Looks like we now have more believers [long] than speculators [shorts] on board. Also, this stock is now part of Russell 2000/3000 and as such is subject to small cap market volatility… which has been coming down in recent weeks.
Volatility is unavoidable in small-cap investing. It can be a gut-wrenching, stress-inducing part of the small-cap investing experience, or it can be the grease that runs the profit machine. Where a 3% move in Microsoft or McDonald's would be out of the ordinary, good or bad news can routinely move small caps' share prices more than 10%. It can be tough for an investor to handle, but the determining factor is self-discipline.
• Perform due diligence before pulling the trigger to buy or sell
Investors sometimes invest without understanding the company's business. Then, at the first sign of negative volatility, they finally scramble to look at the firm's financial statements. That's being reactive, not proactive. You need to understand a company before investing in it. If the stock happens to rally to unattractive levels while you're doing your research, you'll nonetheless be in a great position to buy when the stock inevitably dips. If the stock falls, you'll know more about the company and therefore be less prone to panic. Cognitive scientists have determined that uncertainty is one of the most stressful and painful emotional states. Prior due diligence reduces the element of surprise and is the most effective way of minimizing investment uncertainty.
• Due diligence does not only include checking the criteria for buying a stock. With rare exception, it should also include formulating the conditions for selling based on the stock's valuation. Because small-cap companies often have greater growth prospects than blue-chip companies, your reasons for selling a small-cap company are more apt to change
Stock Short Interest: Over the last few weeks, the short interest has gone up and now stands at 13% [8.38 million shares] of the float [63.03 million shares]. All in all, at the current low average volume per day, it will take about 10 days to cover… about 8.38 million shares short… trading 895,000 shares per day average over the last 3 months.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=MVIS&selected=MVIS
Stock Trading Range: For a period of four weeks [from September 21 to October 22] the stock traded over $5 in a very tight range of “$5.02 to $5.52”. We have seen some very volatile days on Wall Street in the last 10 days [from October 24 to November 4]… and the stock has come down to $3.70 and now seems to be holding at this level as a very strong support… and waiting for next announcement of news. The stock price has crossed under the 50 day moving average [at $4.50] and seems to have very strong support at $3.66 or so. This is where the stock price was before the commercial launch of SHOWwx [on September 15th] and three purchase orders in October. The reason for the stock price drop, in my opinion, is due mainly to the uncertainty associated with quantities of green lasers that are essential to fulfilling the three initial purchase orders.
Here’s the stock chart…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
However, if you look at the P&F [point and figure] chart the stock is still in the uptrend channel with a “bullish price” of $8.31.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=MVIS,P&listNum=
Stock Holding: Institutions hold about 14.40% and the Insiders hold over 16.93% of the outstanding stock [63.19 million float on a fully diluted basis]. This means that over 68.67% of the float is held by retail investors. This is a very wide distribution of MVIS stock… a good sign for PPS support [during lean times] and PPS momentum [during good times] when institutions finally wake-up and come looking to take position in the MVIS stock directly… or decide to invest aggressively in small cap stocks indexed by Russell 2000/3000.
My technical indicators are forecasting another big run-up in the market and the MVIS stock over the next 6-8 weeks, or longer.
Most investors missed out in March and August. And most investors are missing out again right now.
Any pullback in Microvision stock price will be short-lived.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Microvision: Profitable Product Pricing and Marketing Strategy
It is very important to check the competition prices for comparable product offering, and then recognize [and charge premium if justified] for the value proposition of your product in formulating your product pricing and marketing strategy. This will assure you the highest revenue at the best possible margin. Higher revenues streams with best possible margins are the key to financial success in any commercial product launch.
Looks like Microvision has given considerable thought to their current SHOWwx product pricing and marketing strategy.
All of the SHOWwx PicoP projectors are going to Asia-Pacific and Europe at $500 [to $700] a pop in wholesale price… and as revenue to Microvision. The distributors in the two regions are selling it to end users for about USD $900… representing a net profit potential to them of approximately $200 to $400. If the two distributors want to sell for less… then that is their option and only cuts into their profit margin.
The Asia-Pacific OEM Uniden and the European Mobile phone carrier are also selling it for $900 or so… representing a net profit potential of up to $400 depending on their pricing and promotional strategy.
The bottom line is…
• Microvision is selling all of its SHOWwx production at $500 [to $700] a pop and there is no reason to sell it for less. In the short term, all of SHOWwx production is being used to open doors and establish valuable high volume sales channels [for the future] with global distributors, global consumer electronic OEMs and global mobile phone carriers. Recent announcements of initial purchase orders from Asia-Pacific and Europe are proof positive of this strategy.
• If you look at the details in the press releases and do some further digging into the sales literature of those engaged with Microvision as distributors, OEMs and mobile carriers… you will see that the retail price for the laser PicoP projector SHOWwx is in the USD $900 range.
• Microvision is selling all of its SHOWwx production at $500 [to $700] a pop and there is no reason to sell it for less.
• It is very important to check the competition prices for comparable product offering, and then recognize the value proposition of your product in arriving at a product pricing and marketing strategy. Looks like Microvision has given considerable thought to their current SHOWwx product pricing and marketing strategy.
This is what I see…
o Currently there is more demand than supply for their laser PicoP projector SHOWwx. At first blush, that is a good enough reason to command a premium price compared to the competition. However, it is important to investigate why the demand is high. With little digging, and snooping around, you will see that high demand is directly related to the higher standards of SHOWwx: image quality; large size projection; vivid bright colors; always-in-focus on any projected surface; small physical size and longer battery run features. This is the reason number one for commanding premium prices for laser based PicoP display engines and projectors… and that is today, tomorrow and to the day until supply catches-up with demand.
o Quality always comes at a cost. You want quality… then you pay for quality. As they say: “you can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.” In a nutshell, quality at premium price mantra applies to SHOWwx pricing strategy today, tomorrow and every day… as long as the competition has nothing better to offer but still wants to charge $400 for crap of a pico projector.
o Another way to arrive at product pricing is by placing a dollar value on replacement cost of products eliminated by your product and then add to this the intrinsic value of your product’s other differentiating features.
Here’s an example of pricing strategy…
A. SHOWwx can replace a lamp based projector for small meetings and presentations… lamp based projector replacement cost $900.
B. SHOWwx allows impromptu presentations in bright and vivid colors and always stays in focus with 8 font readability in normal light conditions… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
C. SHOWwx in the bedroom to watch movies, shows and other streaming videos on the ceiling with no concern for projector location, has short throw ratio from bed to ceiling and always stays in focus… replacement cost of TV on the ceiling $ 900 and $500 in install cost.
D. SHOWwx can project 200” image size under certain lighting conditions like watching movies outdoors while camping, or with friends and neighbors, on a dark summer night … feature value $400 as compared to the competition that is if you are willing to accept small size and washed out color projection.
E. SHOWwx projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
F. SHOWwx projects higher definition images [848x480]… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
G. SHOWwx projects always-in-focus images regardless of the distance or movement of the projector… priceless. This feature is the competition killer. Let’s face it, as an example, would you buy a car that needs starting again every time you stopped in traffic or at a red light?
Right, I didn’t think so.
You see, in case of pico projectors from the competition... you need to re-focus the image every time you move or want to change the size of projected image. Its not quite like re-starting your car engine every time you stop in traffic... but you know what I mean.
H. SHOWwx projector gives you twice the projection time per battery charge as compared to the competition… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
I. SHOWwx projector used as a mobile TV [with a set-top box] saves you money on energy usage over its operating life [consuming less than 5 watts per hour] … feature value $1,200 in energy savings over a 10 year period
J. SHOWwx projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source… priceless or replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
Well, there you have it...
When you add the value of your product’s unique functionality, and money savings from product features, plus the value of improved quality of experience, the value proposition becomes worth a lot more than the $500 [in wholesale] that Microvision wants at this stage of commercial product launch.
Purchase orders from distributors, OEMs and mobile phone carriers is solid validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s laser PicoP projector SHOWwx that offers…
“large & wide screen, high definition, bright vivid colors, longer battery run on single charge, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always-in-focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.”
Looking at the retail prices of ASD $990 [USD $900] it is quite obvious that the wholesale price to Microvision is somewhere from $500 to $700 per unit. And the margins are over 50%... if not more.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Looks like Microvision has given considerable thought to their current SHOWwx product pricing and marketing strategy.
All of the SHOWwx PicoP projectors are going to Asia-Pacific and Europe at $500 [to $700] a pop in wholesale price… and as revenue to Microvision. The distributors in the two regions are selling it to end users for about USD $900… representing a net profit potential to them of approximately $200 to $400. If the two distributors want to sell for less… then that is their option and only cuts into their profit margin.
The Asia-Pacific OEM Uniden and the European Mobile phone carrier are also selling it for $900 or so… representing a net profit potential of up to $400 depending on their pricing and promotional strategy.
The bottom line is…
• Microvision is selling all of its SHOWwx production at $500 [to $700] a pop and there is no reason to sell it for less. In the short term, all of SHOWwx production is being used to open doors and establish valuable high volume sales channels [for the future] with global distributors, global consumer electronic OEMs and global mobile phone carriers. Recent announcements of initial purchase orders from Asia-Pacific and Europe are proof positive of this strategy.
• If you look at the details in the press releases and do some further digging into the sales literature of those engaged with Microvision as distributors, OEMs and mobile carriers… you will see that the retail price for the laser PicoP projector SHOWwx is in the USD $900 range.
• Microvision is selling all of its SHOWwx production at $500 [to $700] a pop and there is no reason to sell it for less.
• It is very important to check the competition prices for comparable product offering, and then recognize the value proposition of your product in arriving at a product pricing and marketing strategy. Looks like Microvision has given considerable thought to their current SHOWwx product pricing and marketing strategy.
This is what I see…
o Currently there is more demand than supply for their laser PicoP projector SHOWwx. At first blush, that is a good enough reason to command a premium price compared to the competition. However, it is important to investigate why the demand is high. With little digging, and snooping around, you will see that high demand is directly related to the higher standards of SHOWwx: image quality; large size projection; vivid bright colors; always-in-focus on any projected surface; small physical size and longer battery run features. This is the reason number one for commanding premium prices for laser based PicoP display engines and projectors… and that is today, tomorrow and to the day until supply catches-up with demand.
o Quality always comes at a cost. You want quality… then you pay for quality. As they say: “you can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.” In a nutshell, quality at premium price mantra applies to SHOWwx pricing strategy today, tomorrow and every day… as long as the competition has nothing better to offer but still wants to charge $400 for crap of a pico projector.
o Another way to arrive at product pricing is by placing a dollar value on replacement cost of products eliminated by your product and then add to this the intrinsic value of your product’s other differentiating features.
Here’s an example of pricing strategy…
A. SHOWwx can replace a lamp based projector for small meetings and presentations… lamp based projector replacement cost $900.
B. SHOWwx allows impromptu presentations in bright and vivid colors and always stays in focus with 8 font readability in normal light conditions… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
C. SHOWwx in the bedroom to watch movies, shows and other streaming videos on the ceiling with no concern for projector location, has short throw ratio from bed to ceiling and always stays in focus… replacement cost of TV on the ceiling $ 900 and $500 in install cost.
D. SHOWwx can project 200” image size under certain lighting conditions like watching movies outdoors while camping, or with friends and neighbors, on a dark summer night … feature value $400 as compared to the competition that is if you are willing to accept small size and washed out color projection.
E. SHOWwx projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
F. SHOWwx projects higher definition images [848x480]… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
G. SHOWwx projects always-in-focus images regardless of the distance or movement of the projector… priceless. This feature is the competition killer. Let’s face it, as an example, would you buy a car that needs starting again every time you stopped in traffic or at a red light?
Right, I didn’t think so.
You see, in case of pico projectors from the competition... you need to re-focus the image every time you move or want to change the size of projected image. Its not quite like re-starting your car engine every time you stop in traffic... but you know what I mean.
H. SHOWwx projector gives you twice the projection time per battery charge as compared to the competition… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
I. SHOWwx projector used as a mobile TV [with a set-top box] saves you money on energy usage over its operating life [consuming less than 5 watts per hour] … feature value $1,200 in energy savings over a 10 year period
J. SHOWwx projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source… priceless or replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
Well, there you have it...
When you add the value of your product’s unique functionality, and money savings from product features, plus the value of improved quality of experience, the value proposition becomes worth a lot more than the $500 [in wholesale] that Microvision wants at this stage of commercial product launch.
Purchase orders from distributors, OEMs and mobile phone carriers is solid validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s laser PicoP projector SHOWwx that offers…
“large & wide screen, high definition, bright vivid colors, longer battery run on single charge, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always-in-focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.”
Looking at the retail prices of ASD $990 [USD $900] it is quite obvious that the wholesale price to Microvision is somewhere from $500 to $700 per unit. And the margins are over 50%... if not more.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Microvision: 3rd Qtr 2009 Earnings Conference Call – Part 1
The 3rd Quarter earnings were reported after the market close and the conference call took place right after that on October 22nd, 2009.
First, let’s look at the earnings report in Part 1 of this post…
Microvision Reports Third Quarter 2009 Results
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 4:01 pm EDT, Thursday October 22, 2009
Operating Results
“The third quarter of 2009 was a very rewarding and in many ways historical quarter for Microvision as we reached three important corporate milestones for commercialization of our PicoP® technology” said Alexander Tokman, Microvision’s President and CEO. “We launched our first PicoP technology based product, SHOWWXTM the world’s first laser pico projector; received our first purchase order to distribute the SHOWWX; and secured our first global OEM to private label the accessory product. We began shipping SHOWWX laser pico projectors in September and our plan is to increase volume each month to meet customer demand.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Reports-Third-bw-1249636338.html?x=0&.v=1
Next, let’s review the earnings report for “Operating Results” and then we’ll focus on the “Financial Results” later…
• The Asia-Pacific region global consumer electronics OEM was indeed Uniden of Japan, through the efforts of regional distributor Mint Technology, and that Microvision received a purchase order from Uniden to private label the PicoP display engine-based accessory laser pico projector. Read more: http://www.uniden.com.au/australia/oc_our_company.asp
Obviously, Microvision investors didn’t like the names in the news and the stock price plunged to $4.66 early in the morning to make the low of the day [from $5.28] and closed the day at $5.07. Then at the conference call, after the market close, Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, decidedly tried to dodge the questions regarding green laser supply from Corning. I don’t think the investors liked the [wishy-washy] answers on green laser supply issue either. And that, in my opinion, set the stage for further decline in MVIS stock price that came about the next day on Friday… when the stock went down further and closed the day at $4.39.
-- Estimated Development Contracts Backlog: $820,000
-- Estimated ROV Scanner Backlog: $100,000
-- SHOWwx Projectors Backlog: $0 … Purchase Orders from Asia-Pacific Region came-in on October 8th, 2009.
-- Net Product Backlog [net of ROV Scanners]: $1,080,000 [2,000,000 - 820,000 – 100,000 = 1,080,000]
-- PicoP Evaluation Kit [PEK] Sold at: $5,000 each
-- Number of PEKs Sold on Backorder: 216 … give or take a few
• “The company reported an operating loss for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 of $27.9 million compared to $25.3 million for the same period in 2008 and $9.3 million, for the quarter ended September 30, 2009 compared to $9.0 million for the same period in 2008.”
First, let’s look at the earnings report in Part 1 of this post…
Microvision Reports Third Quarter 2009 Results
Commercial Product Launch and Beginning of Shipments of SHOWWX, World’s First Laser Pico Projector, Highlight Quarter
Press Release Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 4:01 pm EDT, Thursday October 22, 2009
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and image capture products for mobility applications, today reported operating and financial results for the third quarter of 2009.
Operating Results
“The third quarter of 2009 was a very rewarding and in many ways historical quarter for Microvision as we reached three important corporate milestones for commercialization of our PicoP® technology” said Alexander Tokman, Microvision’s President and CEO. “We launched our first PicoP technology based product, SHOWWXTM the world’s first laser pico projector; received our first purchase order to distribute the SHOWWX; and secured our first global OEM to private label the accessory product. We began shipping SHOWWX laser pico projectors in September and our plan is to increase volume each month to meet customer demand.”
Microvision’s Asian distribution partner, Mint Technology, through its parent company Mint Wireless Limited (ASX: MNW - News), issued a press release on October 22 (see Mint press release) revealing that the global OEM that will private label Microvision’s laser pico projector is Uniden Corporation of Japan. Microvision had previously announced on a no-name basis the purchase order from Mint Technology (see September 30 Microvision press release) and the purchase order for Uniden to private label Microvision’s PicoP display engine-based accessory laser pico projector (see October 8 Microvision press release).
Other notable results and acknowledgements for the third quarter included:
• Certifying the SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector as a Made for iPod® product
• Signing a long-term agreement with OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH for supply of green and blue lasers to further strengthen supply chain capabilities.
• Receiving $1.0 million subcontract award from Lockheed Martin to support DARPA’s Urban Leader Tactical Response, Awareness & Visualization (ULTRA-Vis) program, an advanced technology development initiative to build a soldier worn system. This contract is important to Microvision’s long-term strategic roadmap, as it provides the opportunity to advance the company’s technology for a variety of military and commercial full-color eyewear applications. Under the subcontract Microvision is developing a daylight-readable, see-through, low-profile, ergonomic eyewear display based on its ultra-miniature PicoP display engine and proprietary thin, clear Substrate Guided Relay (SGR) Optics.
• Identified for the first time by the Patent Board™ as one of the "Top 50 Movers” in the Electronics and Instruments industry. The Patent Board is a leading business-based patent advisor to Fortune 500 companies, emerging technology companies, law firms, investment banks, governments and universities. The Patent Board utilizes proprietary data, tools, analytics and technology to leverage patent-based Intellectual Property as an asset class.
• Identified by a Pacific Northwest business publication as one of “Washington’s Top 100 Companies to Work For in 2009”
Financial Results
For the nine months ended September 30, 2009, the company reported revenue of $2.9 million compared to $5.1 million for the same period in 2008 and for the three months ended September 30, 2009, the company reported revenue of $ 924,000 compared to $894,000 for the same period 2008. As of September 30, 2009, the backlog totaled $2.0 million compared to $647,000 at September 30, 2008. The decrease in revenue is primarily attributed to lower backlog at the beginning of 2009, which is a result of the company's strategy to focus most of its resources on commercializing PicoP products.Continued…
Here’s the link to the full report…http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Reports-Third-bw-1249636338.html?x=0&.v=1
Next, let’s review the earnings report for “Operating Results” and then we’ll focus on the “Financial Results” later…
Review: Operating Results
Microvision reached three [actually four] corporate milestones for commercialization of its PicoP display technology…• Launched the first PicoP display technology based product SHOWwx, the world’s first laser PicoP projector.
• Received the first purchase order to distribute the SHOWwx from Mint Wireless…for distribution into the Asia-Pacific region.
• Secured the first global consumer electronics OEM [Uniden] to private label the accessory product SHOWwx... for OEM sales and marketing into the Asia-Pacific region.
• Began shipping SHOWwx laser PicoP projectors in September and plans to increase volume each month to meet customer demand.
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the two purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs represent as …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.”
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.
• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.
• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.
• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments.
• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 115 issued patents and with many more on file.
There is no need to create the wheel again, so here’s the link to my post on “validation” and the unfolding financial opportunity of a lifetime…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in_8814.htmlMicrovision’s press release also confirmed the early morning news from Reuters that…
• The Asian-Pacific region distribution partner was indeed Mint Technology, through its parent company Mint Wireless Limited, and that Microvision received a purchase order from Mint Technology. Read more: http://www.mint-trading.com/default.asp
• The Asia-Pacific region global consumer electronics OEM was indeed Uniden of Japan, through the efforts of regional distributor Mint Technology, and that Microvision received a purchase order from Uniden to private label the PicoP display engine-based accessory laser pico projector. Read more: http://www.uniden.com.au/australia/oc_our_company.asp
Obviously, Microvision investors didn’t like the names in the news and the stock price plunged to $4.66 early in the morning to make the low of the day [from $5.28] and closed the day at $5.07. Then at the conference call, after the market close, Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, decidedly tried to dodge the questions regarding green laser supply from Corning. I don’t think the investors liked the [wishy-washy] answers on green laser supply issue either. And that, in my opinion, set the stage for further decline in MVIS stock price that came about the next day on Friday… when the stock went down further and closed the day at $4.39.
The stock price action before and after the conference call [CC] is not surprising when you consider…
• Many MVIS investors were expecting global consumer electronics firms like Sony or LG Electronics as the OEM partner of Microvision that was announced on October 8th, 2009… without naming any names at the time. Many of us and that include me, speculated on the OEM partner’s name and wrote pages to arrive at the conclusion that it could be either Sony or LG Electronics. When we finally heard the name “Uniden Corporation”, we were disappointed… because most of us are not familiar with Uniden as a household name in the US.
• Also the undisclosed name, of the Asian distributor [from October 8th press release], was finally disclosed as “Mint Technology” at the same time the OEM’s name "Uniden" became a public knowledge. Again, some of us were disappointed because we were expecting some big name global distributor… and not some company called “Mint” from Asia.
Considering the above, a first blush knee jerk action best describes the investor response to the news… about Mint Technology and Uniden Corporation… and lack of clearly understanding the comments made by Alex Tokman, on green laser supplies for 2009 and 2010.
In my humble opinion, the investor selling on the news is reactionary; essentially prompted by lack of information about the two big name companies from the Asia-Pacific region. Let’s first talk about Mint Wireless and Uniden, and then we will discuss the CEO comments on green laser supply issue. The price of MVIS stock will take care of itself when we are better informed and had some time to digest information.
Here’s the link to my post on this very topic…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-asia-pacific-region.htmlNow let’s talk about “Other notable results and acknowledgements for the third quarter”… as stated in the press release…
• “Certifying the SHOWwx Laser Pico Projector as a Made for iPod® product”
What Alex Tokman said at the CC later in the evening, says it all…
“Many of you who don't know, our pico projector is a very simple plug and play device for people on the go who want to spontaneously view and share multimedia applications and programs such as mobile television, movies, photos, user generated content. Users can seamlessly plug the projector into their iPod devices, portable media players, and other mobile devices. Which brings me to our next topic, not every product can have “Made for iPod” logo on it. This logo indicates that our projector has specifically designed to work with iPod products. Microvision has gone through five steps process and certified that SHOWwx has been made in accordance with the high standards of quality and performance. Why is this important? According to media sources, there are more than 220 million iPods sold to-date. The preliminary feedback we have received from prospective users has been very positive. They recognize the value of the unique competitive advantages of the PicoP tech including the thin form factor high resolution infinite focus and long battery life. As an example, very recently we have completed our participation in a trade show in Japan called CEATEC where multiple companies have showcased their new projectors. Engadget reports has provided some of the coverage of what they've seen at the show. And I'm going to read you a quote from one of their take-away.
"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."
Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/Now consider the value of this marketing strategy in the short term, while the supply is constrained…
Microvision is targeting their laser PicoP projector SHOWwx into a 220 million unit strong iPod market with a certification “Made for iPod” product family [that includes iPhones]. Selling directly, or thru a distributor is lot better margin wise than it would be if Apple were to private label it under its own Apple logo.
Some day, when the supply is not constrained and millions of PicoP display engines can be mass produced to attract Apple, we may see Apple as the next global consumer electronic OEM for the American region… with a global reach
• “Signing a long-term agreement with OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH for supply of green and blue lasers to further strengthen supply chain capabilities.”
Osram is coming on board with more production quantities of green laser becoming available in the fourth quarter 2009. Hopefully, that will ease-up some green laser supply issues facing Microvision at the present time. Osram green laser are better, cheaper to make and have better yields due to their simpler design as compared to Corning. Microvision has signed a multi-year supply agreement with Osram... which essentially guarantees all of Osram production of green laser going into the production of PicoP display engines.
The availability and quality of green lasers will be crucial not only to the viability of Microvision’s PicoP display technology… but also to its financial success as a growth company. In 2010, there will be six companies making green lasers for the Pico projector market. The most recent news about Japan’s QD lasers only reinforces my belief that Microvision will be a huge financial success.
Here’s the link to QD laser news…
http://www.pcworld.com/article/173455/green_laser_developed_for_microprojectors.html• “Receiving $1.0 million subcontract award from Lockheed Martin to support DARPA’s Urban Leader Tactical Response, Awareness & Visualization (ULTRA-Vis) program, an advanced technology development initiative to build a soldier worn system. This contract is important to Microvision’s long-term strategic roadmap, as it provides the opportunity to advance the company’s technology for a variety of military and commercial full-color eyewear applications. Under the subcontract Microvision is developing a daylight-readable, see-through, low-profile, ergonomic eyewear display based on its ultra-miniature PicoP display engine and proprietary thin, clear Substrate Guided Relay (SGR) Optics.”
Contract like this not only provide current revenue, but also help fund future R&D effort to enhance, for one example, the resolution and brightness of PicoP display engine for next generation projectors.
• “Identified for the first time by the Patent Board™ as one of the "Top 50 Movers” in the Electronics and Instruments industry. The Patent Board is a leading business-based patent advisor to Fortune 500 companies, emerging technology companies, law firms, investment banks, governments and universities. The Patent Board utilizes proprietary data, tools, analytics and technology to leverage patent-based Intellectual Property as an asset class.”
Microvision is positioning itself thru patents and IP to be a major player in the image community. He (Alex) said: “Microvision is not going to be a small component provider that can be marginalized by bigger players.”
Alex sees Microvision as an INTEL type company. He is going to make the company a major player in the image industry. That may very well explain the “Image by PicoP” as the slogan chosen for the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
Again, no need to create the wheel. Please read my three part post on the subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-protect-your-intellectual.html• “Identified by a Pacific Northwest business publication as one of “Washington’s Top 100 Companies to Work For in 2009”
Well, that’s good to know. It’s always a good sign when the company is able to hire and retain key employees during its growth phase… like Microvision is at this stage of commercial product launch.
Now let’s look at the “Financial Results”…
Review: Financial Results
“… and for the three months ended September 30, 2009, the company reported revenue of $ 924,000 compared to $894,000 for the same period 2008.”“…, the backlog totaled $2.0 million compared to $647,000 at September 30, 2008. The decrease in revenue is primarily attributed to lower backlog at the beginning of 2009,”
Digging into the earnings report for 2nd Qtr and 3rd Qtr 2009, in simple terms, it means…
• Microvision sold lot less ROV scanners and a very few, if any, PEKs in the 3rd Qtr 2009. And obviously, there were no sales of SHOWwx in the 3rd Qtr 2009… because POs did not show-up until October 8th, 2009.
• In 2nd Qtr 2009, the product sales were $174,000 and cost of product revenue was $543,000. In 3rd Qtr 2009, the product sales were $107,000 and cost of product revenue was $720,000. How do you reconcile the loss? Well, I can guess, by looking at the product & development contracts backlog of approximately $2,000,000.
Here’s the analysis and the way I arrived at the numbers…
-- Total 3rd Qtr Backlog: $2,000,000-- Estimated Development Contracts Backlog: $820,000
-- Estimated ROV Scanner Backlog: $100,000
-- SHOWwx Projectors Backlog: $0 … Purchase Orders from Asia-Pacific Region came-in on October 8th, 2009.
-- Net Product Backlog [net of ROV Scanners]: $1,080,000 [2,000,000 - 820,000 – 100,000 = 1,080,000]
-- PicoP Evaluation Kit [PEK] Sold at: $5,000 each
-- Number of PEKs Sold on Backorder: 216 … give or take a few
• “The company reported an operating loss for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 of $27.9 million compared to $25.3 million for the same period in 2008 and $9.3 million, for the quarter ended September 30, 2009 compared to $9.0 million for the same period in 2008.”
Looks like, the operating loss for the 3rd Qtr was $300,000 more as compared to the 2nd Qtr. That’s reasonable considering the commercial product launch.
• “The company reported a net loss of $30.8 million, or $0.43 per share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 compared to $22.7 million, or $0.38 per share for the same period in 2008 and $11.5 million, or $0.15 per share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2009 compared to $8.4 million, or $0.13 per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2008. The net loss for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2009 included a non cash loss on derivative instruments of $2.2 million and $3.0 million, respectively, compared to a gain of $585,000 and $2.0 million for the same periods in 2008. The loss on derivative instruments is due to the change in the value of the warrants to purchase the company’s common stock that were issued in connection with the company’s financing transactions.”
The net loss for the 3rd Qtr was $11.5 million as compared to $8.4 million for the 2nd Qtr. The net loss figure takes the “operating loss” of $9.3 million for the 3rd Qtr and adds [or subtracts] the gain [or loss] on derivative instruments [like options & warrants]. It’s not a real dollars loss until the derivative instrument is exercised. Consider this additional loss of $2.2 million as the “net” value of options or warrants owned [or issued] by the company. In 3rd Qtr, Microvision issued warrants to institutional investors and those warrants went up in value as the MVIS stock went up in value during that period.
• “Net cash used in operating activities was $23.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 compared to $22.3 million for the same period in 2008. Net cash used in operating activities was $7.1 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009 compared to $7.6 million for the second quarter of 2009. The reduction in the quarterly cash burn was primarily a result of cost reduction efforts the company implemented in the first quarter of 2009. The net cash burn for the third quarter was partially offset by the receipt of $1.5 million for the exercise of investor warrants, and $300,000 for other investing and financing activities resulting in a net cash usage of $5.9 million for the third quarter of 2009. The company ended the quarter with $20.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investment securities.”
Here, two important things are worth noting…
- The net cash burn for the 3rd Qtr was $7.1 million and was $0.5 million less than the 2nd Qtr. However, the net cash usage in the 3rd Qtr was $5.9 million… as a result of cash received from warrants exercised and other investing and financing activities.
- At the end of 3rd Qtr, Microvision had $20.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investment securities.
Stay tuned for Part 2… where we will discuss the Earnings Conference Call and see where that takes us in this journey to “Image by PicoP” ubiquity.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
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