Microvision recently announced a “back to college” promotion for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx… by reducing the list price down to $449 which also included the VGA dock.
After having made an extensive check with my contacts in the computer resellers community [from my past life] that sells consumer electronics gadgets to college students all over the US… I have to say that Microvision’s marketing effort is limited to a blurb about the price reduction offer on their web site… and that’s about it.
There are no signs of any marketing effort to promote or sell SHOWwx to the college students… other than an advertisement on the Microvision web site at…
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/index.html
College students represent, for many companies like Microvision, a valuable demographic. It's easy to understand why… because most young people are still shaping their brand loyalty, they usually have disposable income, and most are interested in trying new things. Unfortunately, marketing to college students can pose a challenge because they are immune to many classic methods of marketing. By injecting a little fun into the message and having the right attitude, campus marketing can bring your product or service a lot of attention.
Before you decide to launch your marketing campaign, be aware of the “Campus Solicitation” policy of each and every individual campus on your target list. Most colleges discourage aggressive solicitation of students, faculty, and staff on campus. These activities often disrupt campus routine, offend segments of the College community, and imply endorsement by the College of particular products, services, or ideas.
Here’s one idea that is most cost effective and incorporates all of the best of breed ideas in one place…
• Hire a company that specializes in collegiate marketing. Many years ago, I worked with this company called “New Age Marketing”. In my humble opinion, they are the best in the business. Check them out…
http://www.collegiatepromotions.com/cpfeatured.html
You don’t have to create the viral networking buzz yourself… these guys will do it for you in the most cost effective manner.
One other thing that you may consider…
• Partnering with the School
Piggyback on the excitement around college sports events. Football game days at many schools─ Ohio State, Alabama and USC, for example─ are massive undertakings, attracting 100,000 fans to the stadium and thousands more to the surrounding neighborhood. Establishing an official promotional partnership can be expensive, but valuable. Your company could purchase ad space in the stadium. To capitalize on the opportunity without an official license… you must arrive on campus few hours before kickoff and engage the thousands of excited students walking around.
Enter into an agreement with the university to provide goods to students at a low cost. If they have your product in hand, they will learn to turn to you in the future. For example, according to Marguerite Reardon at Wired Magazine, Duke University spent $500,000 to purchase discounted Apple iPods in an attempt to assess their usefulness in higher education. Apple gave 1,650 Duke Freshmen the devices, helping the school and helping Apple expand its market share.
The College or recognized student groups occasionally invite vendors to fulfill particular campus objectives. The Director of Student Life must provide written approval to such vendors to grant exceptions to solicitation policies. Student groups must guarantee the availability of the products that their sponsored vendors sell. These sales must be cleared in writing in advance with the Director of Student Life, and when an athletic team is involved, with the Director of Athletics. No outside organization may proselytize, distribute, or sell products without direct sponsorship of a student organization recognized by the College Student Government or an administrative office.
Here’re some thoughts on doing the marketing to college students on your own…
• Colleges provide sellers with a captive audience full of hungry buyers. College campus advertisements are successful in reaching large numbers of people due to the dense population of students and staff that frequent campus buildings. There are a number of ways that you can effectively advertise on a college campus. By engaging in some creative ad placement, you can increase the success of your business and introduce your product to a whole new group of consumers.
• Print Marketing: Tailor your print marketing to the mindset present in most young people. Instead of putting together ads with lots of tiny words, spend a little extra money with the printer to ensure that your ads have striking images. Think about it; "got milk?" is only two words, but is an ad campaign everyone knows. If nothing else, include a link to your website to take advantage of the increasingly digital lifestyle of the student. Indeed, you should place the signs on outdoor billboards around campus. More important, post them on billboards inside, especially near administrative offices. Thousands of bored students stream past the registrar’s office, and your ad could catch their eye.
• Quad Posting Boards: Many colleges and universities feature a central posting board in their campus quad or other open area. This board contains flyers, student postings and campus event reminders. Advertise your product by placing a flyer on this message board amongst the other messages. Many students peruse this board regularly, so placing your flyer here will surely get you some views.
• Hire enthusiastic young people: to prowl the campus with flyers. Better yet, have them distribute free T-shirts with your product message in vivid colors. Young people are more likely to stop if another young person is flagging them down. Have your employees wear brightly colored T-shirts and make sure they are enthusiastic, above all else.
• Hire some students: to go around to dorms and put flyers up on bulletin boards or stuff mailboxes.
• Put an ad: in the school newspaper.
• Place an ad: on the college radio station.
• Send your flyers: to fraternities, sororities, athletic groups, etc… especially at school "party" times.
One thing that you must not do; is hire yet another “Director of Campus Marketing”… only to fire him/her a year or two later for lack of generating any tangible sales revenue.
Anant Goel
Showing posts with label Laptops. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Laptops. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Next Paradigm Shift: The Internet Would Democratize Broadcasting and Content Delivery
Over the last few years, there has been such a confluence of technologies in so many different sectors that it is about to bring several paradigm shifts… and in the process shape our lives and also open-up new frontiers to commercial opportunities.
There is a long list of paradigm shifts taking place right under our noses while we work, play or snooze. As the title suggests, here we will just focus on: How Internet Would Democratize Broadcasting and Content Delivery.
How attractive does a new technology have to be to warrant adoption and utilization?
It all started with YouTube and the beginning of ‘broadcast your self” phenomenon in the year 2005.
YouTube is free; and is a video-sharing website on which users can upload, share, and view videos. YouTube uses Adobe Flash Video technology to display a wide variety of user-generated video content, including movie clips, TV clips, and music videos, as well as, amateur content such as video blogs and short original videos. In the early days, most all of the content on YouTube was uploaded by individuals, although there were some early adopter media corporations including CBS, BBC, VEVO and other organizations that offered some of their material via the site, as part of the YouTube partnership program.
Unregistered users can watch the videos, while registered users are permitted to upload an unlimited number of videos. Videos that are considered to contain potentially offensive content are available only to registered users 18 and older.
Before the launch of YouTube, there were only a few easy methods available for ordinary computer users who wanted to post videos online. However, with its simple interface, YouTube made it possible for anyone with an Internet connection to post a video that a worldwide audience could watch within a few minutes. The wide range of topics covered by YouTube has turned video sharing into one of the fastest growing and most important part of Internet culture.
Follow the Eyeballs
Consumer demand for service providers to deliver content to any device, at any time and in any location is growing more prevalent each year. Consumers are gaining additional control over how they access content, whether it’s through personal computers, mobile devices or set-top boxes… challenging service providers’ traditional walled living room offerings and in the process threatening their position in the content delivery value chain.
“All service providers need to do is follow the eyeballs,” said Stef van der Ziel, Jet-Stream CEO. “Thanks to the Internet, consumers are revolutionizing the way they access content, and content owners and advertisers are following their lead. Service providers don’t want to be left behind; they want a portion of the content distribution opportunity.”
To do this, service providers must evolve from triple play services─ offering phone, Internet and video, to ‘open play’ platforms that deliver content to all four screens─ PC, Mobile client, TV and the pico projector.
Technology: Deployment of the “Four Screens CDN”
Anyone with commercial interests in streaming media services and CDN [content delivery network] technologies; and that has ever produced a video for YouTube or a web cast, will tell you that the Internet would democratize broadcasting. If a college dropout with heavy interest in media and technology could broadcast video globally on YouTube, then anyone would be able to do so. In a matter of time, all content would be distributed via the web to PC’s, mobile clients, and TV’s and pico projectors. The signs are all around you… just look at the latest products and services offered by Apple, Amazon, NetFlix, Hulu, ESPN and so on.
Years ago, I envisioned a future where consumers and companies would not be locked in walled living rooms… and content owners could distribute content directly to consumers. It was just a matter of time, people and companies [like Apple, NetFlix, Hulu, ESPN] would use the Internet to share content. I also foresaw that the Internet could not handle the sheer volumes of content. There would be a huge need for smart distribution technologies. Telcos will have to follow the eyeballs and embrace Internet based content and consumption on all four screens─ the PC, mobile client, TV, and pico projector by deploying intelligent CDNs.
The Open Play
Enormous amount of resources will be spent to scale the web for professional and massive content delivery; to democratize broadcasting, to disrupt the traditional cable and broadcasting industry and to break open this market so anyone could create, distribute and consume content, anywhere, without borders.
Continued Market Growth Ahead for CDNs
In 2008, the entire global market for video delivery services was only $400 million, according to Frost & Sullivan. That’s a really small number when compared to the overall CDN market size or many of the other segments of the infrastructure market. It shows that the CDN market still has a long way to go and that many opportunities still exist.
Most content owners still don’t make any money with their content, but just imagine what the CDN market will look like when they do. CDNs will be even more crucial down the road as content owners rely on them to help them generate revenue. In the next few years, as more devices [like Apple TV, iPhone, iPad] come to the market, consumers will begin to adopt them in large numbers—then the market will change.
While many ask when this is going to happen and what the next tipping point will be that gives CDNs the next surge of traffic, you have to remember that it does not happen overnight. Many use the example of YouTube and 2007 as being the year that the CDN market really exploded. But what most people didn’t see, or don’t know about, is all the work that was taking place in the CDN space leading up to that event in the years before. Companies worked very hard from 2004 to 2007—none of that perceived growth in 2007 truly happened overnight.
Today, we’re building the market size for CDNs every single day. Even with the poor economy, you don’t see less content online… you see more. You don’t see poorer quality video… you see HD. You don’t see fewer devices… you see more platforms than ever before. This is what we’re building on. So when it seems like there is a sudden surge in the CDN business years from now, with or without Telco’s, remember that it did not happen overnight.
Tough times for many of the vendors in the CDN space may be coming to an end. All industries need corrections, and the CDN industry is no different. The bottom line is that the CDN industry has never been stronger, has never been more needed, and will only continue to evolve to help do more than just deliver some bits from point A to point B.
In the future, private CDNs─ like the one rumored at Apple, will flourish. Streaming media analyst Dan Rayburn reported last year that Apple was planning to bring some of its CDN capabilities in-house. “Folks I have spoken to inside Apple told me that once the new data center is completed, Apple plans to have a more active role in doing their own content delivery,” Rayburn wrote, noting a precedent. “While its way too early to speculate what kind of content Apple will deliver and in what volume, this strategy is nearly identical to what we’ve seen Microsoft do over the years.”
In closing, I must re-state that most CDNs will become profitable, some will be worth acquiring, and many content owners will be willing to pay more for a service that makes them money. We’re all waiting for this time to come. And while it won’t come overnight, I think it will happen sooner than many people may realize.
Anant Goel
There is a long list of paradigm shifts taking place right under our noses while we work, play or snooze. As the title suggests, here we will just focus on: How Internet Would Democratize Broadcasting and Content Delivery.
How attractive does a new technology have to be to warrant adoption and utilization?
It all started with YouTube and the beginning of ‘broadcast your self” phenomenon in the year 2005.
YouTube is free; and is a video-sharing website on which users can upload, share, and view videos. YouTube uses Adobe Flash Video technology to display a wide variety of user-generated video content, including movie clips, TV clips, and music videos, as well as, amateur content such as video blogs and short original videos. In the early days, most all of the content on YouTube was uploaded by individuals, although there were some early adopter media corporations including CBS, BBC, VEVO and other organizations that offered some of their material via the site, as part of the YouTube partnership program.
Unregistered users can watch the videos, while registered users are permitted to upload an unlimited number of videos. Videos that are considered to contain potentially offensive content are available only to registered users 18 and older.
Before the launch of YouTube, there were only a few easy methods available for ordinary computer users who wanted to post videos online. However, with its simple interface, YouTube made it possible for anyone with an Internet connection to post a video that a worldwide audience could watch within a few minutes. The wide range of topics covered by YouTube has turned video sharing into one of the fastest growing and most important part of Internet culture.
Follow the Eyeballs
Consumer demand for service providers to deliver content to any device, at any time and in any location is growing more prevalent each year. Consumers are gaining additional control over how they access content, whether it’s through personal computers, mobile devices or set-top boxes… challenging service providers’ traditional walled living room offerings and in the process threatening their position in the content delivery value chain.
“All service providers need to do is follow the eyeballs,” said Stef van der Ziel, Jet-Stream CEO. “Thanks to the Internet, consumers are revolutionizing the way they access content, and content owners and advertisers are following their lead. Service providers don’t want to be left behind; they want a portion of the content distribution opportunity.”
To do this, service providers must evolve from triple play services─ offering phone, Internet and video, to ‘open play’ platforms that deliver content to all four screens─ PC, Mobile client, TV and the pico projector.
Technology: Deployment of the “Four Screens CDN”
Anyone with commercial interests in streaming media services and CDN [content delivery network] technologies; and that has ever produced a video for YouTube or a web cast, will tell you that the Internet would democratize broadcasting. If a college dropout with heavy interest in media and technology could broadcast video globally on YouTube, then anyone would be able to do so. In a matter of time, all content would be distributed via the web to PC’s, mobile clients, and TV’s and pico projectors. The signs are all around you… just look at the latest products and services offered by Apple, Amazon, NetFlix, Hulu, ESPN and so on.
Years ago, I envisioned a future where consumers and companies would not be locked in walled living rooms… and content owners could distribute content directly to consumers. It was just a matter of time, people and companies [like Apple, NetFlix, Hulu, ESPN] would use the Internet to share content. I also foresaw that the Internet could not handle the sheer volumes of content. There would be a huge need for smart distribution technologies. Telcos will have to follow the eyeballs and embrace Internet based content and consumption on all four screens─ the PC, mobile client, TV, and pico projector by deploying intelligent CDNs.
The Open Play
Enormous amount of resources will be spent to scale the web for professional and massive content delivery; to democratize broadcasting, to disrupt the traditional cable and broadcasting industry and to break open this market so anyone could create, distribute and consume content, anywhere, without borders.
Continued Market Growth Ahead for CDNs
In 2008, the entire global market for video delivery services was only $400 million, according to Frost & Sullivan. That’s a really small number when compared to the overall CDN market size or many of the other segments of the infrastructure market. It shows that the CDN market still has a long way to go and that many opportunities still exist.
Most content owners still don’t make any money with their content, but just imagine what the CDN market will look like when they do. CDNs will be even more crucial down the road as content owners rely on them to help them generate revenue. In the next few years, as more devices [like Apple TV, iPhone, iPad] come to the market, consumers will begin to adopt them in large numbers—then the market will change.
While many ask when this is going to happen and what the next tipping point will be that gives CDNs the next surge of traffic, you have to remember that it does not happen overnight. Many use the example of YouTube and 2007 as being the year that the CDN market really exploded. But what most people didn’t see, or don’t know about, is all the work that was taking place in the CDN space leading up to that event in the years before. Companies worked very hard from 2004 to 2007—none of that perceived growth in 2007 truly happened overnight.
Today, we’re building the market size for CDNs every single day. Even with the poor economy, you don’t see less content online… you see more. You don’t see poorer quality video… you see HD. You don’t see fewer devices… you see more platforms than ever before. This is what we’re building on. So when it seems like there is a sudden surge in the CDN business years from now, with or without Telco’s, remember that it did not happen overnight.
Tough times for many of the vendors in the CDN space may be coming to an end. All industries need corrections, and the CDN industry is no different. The bottom line is that the CDN industry has never been stronger, has never been more needed, and will only continue to evolve to help do more than just deliver some bits from point A to point B.
In the future, private CDNs─ like the one rumored at Apple, will flourish. Streaming media analyst Dan Rayburn reported last year that Apple was planning to bring some of its CDN capabilities in-house. “Folks I have spoken to inside Apple told me that once the new data center is completed, Apple plans to have a more active role in doing their own content delivery,” Rayburn wrote, noting a precedent. “While its way too early to speculate what kind of content Apple will deliver and in what volume, this strategy is nearly identical to what we’ve seen Microsoft do over the years.”
In closing, I must re-state that most CDNs will become profitable, some will be worth acquiring, and many content owners will be willing to pay more for a service that makes them money. We’re all waiting for this time to come. And while it won’t come overnight, I think it will happen sooner than many people may realize.
Anant Goel
Friday, April 2, 2010
Microvision: Initial Reviews of Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx
On March 24th, Microvision launched its first laser PicoP projector SHOWwx for sale from its on-line store…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Sales of this DVD quality and focus free laser projector have been quite brisk without any visible signs of advertising or promotional effort… indicating a broad based demand; from those that are aware of this pico projection as the emerging new technology that seems to have arrived in full bloom this spring.
I received my Limited Edition SHOWwx a few days ago and shared the pico projection experience with my friends, family and some total strangers.
Here’s my personal experience with Limited Edition SHOWwx…
The packaging is First Class, including a solid high quality 12x16" shiny black box that says "Image by PicoP" in silver letters. All the accessories are in their own quality boxes and they all rest on black grass like packing material. It also includes a Limited Edition SHOWwx Laser Pico Projector Certificate of Authenticity signed by Alexander Tokman… the CEO of Microvision. I was very impressed as to the very upscale quality of the packaging. It tells me that Microvision is a quality company with a quality product included in the box.
The metallic blue color SHOWwx was nicely packed compactly in its own compartment. A chrome plated insignia “SHOWwx Limited Edition” graced on the top half of the laser projector. I quickly read thru the few pages of instructions and safety manual to familiarize with the fine nuances of this feather weight machine that boasts of up to 100” projection display under certain ambient light conditions.
I inserted the battery in the SHOWwx as instructed in the manual and charged the battery for a few hours till the orange light turned green. When I first turned it on, it displayed my name in the lower right hand corner which was pretty cool. I walked around the house projecting various size images up and down the ceiling to walls to the hard wood floor. What an experience… feeling like a kid in the candy store! The highlight of this experience culminated in the fairly dark entertainment center in my finished basement.
Over 100” vivid color and focused image on the white wall just had one response from my 10 year old son… WOW!
One of the main usages that I had planned for SHOWwx was to watch streaming sports and You Tube videos. But, I still have not yet figured out how to enable the external monitor/projector on my HP Pavilion laptop. I tried the FN+F5 key combination the laptop instructions recommended; but that didn't work so I'll keep working on that.
The next thing I wanted to use SHOWwx was to hook it up to my portable DVD player and watch big screen movies in the entertainment center of the basement. Since my portable DVD player has 9" screen, it handles and travels well but I wanted a bigger screen to watch the movies. Surprisingly, even though SHOWwx comes with 4 different cables the one I needed was not included. So, I had to buy the proper male to male RCA video cable for $5 at the local Radio Shack
I hooked it up to my portable DVD player and found I had to press a switch that made my DVD screen go dark but produced a picture on the SHOWwx. The colors were bright and vivid and there were no green lines on the top or bottom of the screen when playing “Star Wars” on the DVD. The picture is certainly brighter when the screen size is 40” diagonal… but is still very sharp at 80” diagonal. Like most projectors the SHOWwx works best in a dimly lit or dark room… just like in a theater. The battery charge was good enough to last over 110 minute… before I had to go looking for the spare that came with the Limited Edition SHOWwx.
Paul Anderson did a very nice experiment with the SHOWwx battery run time that you should take a few minutes to look at…
http://mvisblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/my-showwx-experiment.html
Overall, I think it works great and the unit is so light you could easily carry it in a shirt pocket although mine came with a nice heavy duty carrying case with an "X" (for SHOWwx) on it that easily clips-on to your belt.
The only obvious improvement I would recommend; is to include an on-board SD memory card… for downloading and using digital content without having to attach SHOWwx to a host device.
With my personal experience set aside…
Initial reviews of SHOWwx and its projection image quality are coming-in from the first adopter users of the Limited Edition and the Commercial Edition product that was just recently shipped over the last few days.
If you are willing to accept the good with the bad, here’s a collection from a diverse group of people that have had a chance to look at the SHOWwx image projection in real life setting:
• “Tremendous product! This pico projection communicates the giddy excitement that awaits those who see and play with the PicoP for the first time. Such a bright, clear, colorful image from such a tiny device is hard to accept at first, as it contradicts one's prior experiences. Those guys were getting happy feet just like I did the first time I saw the PicoP in action. Microvision technology is going to OWN the high quality end of these emerging product categories.”
• “The projected image is from iPod Touch that has a resolution of 483 by 320 pixels. SHOWwx has a resolution of 848 by 480 pixels. If you liked the image at 483x320 pixels [iPod Touch] just imagine how awesome the image would look at 848x480 pixels.”
• “Even at the $549 launch price this product is amazing value and I for one will probably be buying several.”
• "...the amazing thing about this projector, it's not a shitty DLP or LCD based light engine... it's a scanning LASER!!!"
• "Because it's a beam of light from lasers it's always in focus, incredibly bright and the lasers have an immense lifetime..."
• "The Microvision laser projector seriously impresses me (and come on, you know how cynical I am!) but I'm not at all excited by those little DLP projectors that are just hitting the market... they are built on an old technology that isn't translating to the mobile world very well at all..."
• I have seen the videos of this product image. What I notice is so much better image quality in real life. It's worth mentioning a few facts:
1. Due to the slight difference between the refresh rate of video camera and the laser scan lines on the Microvision projector; the video image appears to flicker… which does not happen in "real life" and is a side-effect of recording projected image with a camera.
2. Most digital cameras don’t handle the low ambient light recording well and therefore don’t do the SHOWwx pico projector any favors... but the video images still look amazing!
• “Needless to say, I absolutely LOVE this product."
• "Yeah - Dad's mad about this, but I have to admit the demo was excellent. No focusing and a massive clear image created from a handset-sized device. Imagine sharing your images at a party on a wall...”
• “This unit outperforms the comparable Optoma unit and the actual projector is about 2/3rd of the size of an iPhone."
• “Those guys were stunned. I love to see the reaction of tech junkies like me.”
• “Just get me some big fat orders and I'll be happy.”… Obviously from someone who desperately wants to work for Microvision in the sales department.
• “You might mention that the flickering on the screen doesn't show when you're using the projector live. And yeah, I want one . . .”.
• “It is almost laughable now how the "green laser supply" issue has been blown out of all proportions by so many others. A serious public company with serious business doesn't require reading a bunch of tea leafs or put out a bunch of rumor fodder.”
• “Go back and look at all the posts for the last 8 years about how many "this is it" posts on a tea leaf reading have been pronounced and how many have come true?”
• “He could have been referring to a couple of large corporations with sales forces that have inquired about purchasing a number of units when available. However, I think they would want on-board memory so they can load-up a presentation without a second device hooked-up.”
• “Looks a lot better than the Pico Pocket Projector I reviewed a couple of months ago. Looking forward to buying SHOWwx with on-board memory in the near future!”
• “Brilliant! The fact that it's non-focus is the best part.”
• “… I think the SHOWWX is fantastic and everyone will want one when they find out about it.”
So there you have it, comments from those enamored with PicoP… those with inquisitive minds… and those who are skeptics.
Be careful with what you wish for!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Sales of this DVD quality and focus free laser projector have been quite brisk without any visible signs of advertising or promotional effort… indicating a broad based demand; from those that are aware of this pico projection as the emerging new technology that seems to have arrived in full bloom this spring.
I received my Limited Edition SHOWwx a few days ago and shared the pico projection experience with my friends, family and some total strangers.
Here’s my personal experience with Limited Edition SHOWwx…
The packaging is First Class, including a solid high quality 12x16" shiny black box that says "Image by PicoP" in silver letters. All the accessories are in their own quality boxes and they all rest on black grass like packing material. It also includes a Limited Edition SHOWwx Laser Pico Projector Certificate of Authenticity signed by Alexander Tokman… the CEO of Microvision. I was very impressed as to the very upscale quality of the packaging. It tells me that Microvision is a quality company with a quality product included in the box.
The metallic blue color SHOWwx was nicely packed compactly in its own compartment. A chrome plated insignia “SHOWwx Limited Edition” graced on the top half of the laser projector. I quickly read thru the few pages of instructions and safety manual to familiarize with the fine nuances of this feather weight machine that boasts of up to 100” projection display under certain ambient light conditions.
I inserted the battery in the SHOWwx as instructed in the manual and charged the battery for a few hours till the orange light turned green. When I first turned it on, it displayed my name in the lower right hand corner which was pretty cool. I walked around the house projecting various size images up and down the ceiling to walls to the hard wood floor. What an experience… feeling like a kid in the candy store! The highlight of this experience culminated in the fairly dark entertainment center in my finished basement.
Over 100” vivid color and focused image on the white wall just had one response from my 10 year old son… WOW!
One of the main usages that I had planned for SHOWwx was to watch streaming sports and You Tube videos. But, I still have not yet figured out how to enable the external monitor/projector on my HP Pavilion laptop. I tried the FN+F5 key combination the laptop instructions recommended; but that didn't work so I'll keep working on that.
The next thing I wanted to use SHOWwx was to hook it up to my portable DVD player and watch big screen movies in the entertainment center of the basement. Since my portable DVD player has 9" screen, it handles and travels well but I wanted a bigger screen to watch the movies. Surprisingly, even though SHOWwx comes with 4 different cables the one I needed was not included. So, I had to buy the proper male to male RCA video cable for $5 at the local Radio Shack
I hooked it up to my portable DVD player and found I had to press a switch that made my DVD screen go dark but produced a picture on the SHOWwx. The colors were bright and vivid and there were no green lines on the top or bottom of the screen when playing “Star Wars” on the DVD. The picture is certainly brighter when the screen size is 40” diagonal… but is still very sharp at 80” diagonal. Like most projectors the SHOWwx works best in a dimly lit or dark room… just like in a theater. The battery charge was good enough to last over 110 minute… before I had to go looking for the spare that came with the Limited Edition SHOWwx.
Paul Anderson did a very nice experiment with the SHOWwx battery run time that you should take a few minutes to look at…
http://mvisblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/my-showwx-experiment.html
Overall, I think it works great and the unit is so light you could easily carry it in a shirt pocket although mine came with a nice heavy duty carrying case with an "X" (for SHOWwx) on it that easily clips-on to your belt.
The only obvious improvement I would recommend; is to include an on-board SD memory card… for downloading and using digital content without having to attach SHOWwx to a host device.
With my personal experience set aside…
Initial reviews of SHOWwx and its projection image quality are coming-in from the first adopter users of the Limited Edition and the Commercial Edition product that was just recently shipped over the last few days.
If you are willing to accept the good with the bad, here’s a collection from a diverse group of people that have had a chance to look at the SHOWwx image projection in real life setting:
• “Tremendous product! This pico projection communicates the giddy excitement that awaits those who see and play with the PicoP for the first time. Such a bright, clear, colorful image from such a tiny device is hard to accept at first, as it contradicts one's prior experiences. Those guys were getting happy feet just like I did the first time I saw the PicoP in action. Microvision technology is going to OWN the high quality end of these emerging product categories.”
• “The projected image is from iPod Touch that has a resolution of 483 by 320 pixels. SHOWwx has a resolution of 848 by 480 pixels. If you liked the image at 483x320 pixels [iPod Touch] just imagine how awesome the image would look at 848x480 pixels.”
• “Even at the $549 launch price this product is amazing value and I for one will probably be buying several.”
• "...the amazing thing about this projector, it's not a shitty DLP or LCD based light engine... it's a scanning LASER!!!"
• "Because it's a beam of light from lasers it's always in focus, incredibly bright and the lasers have an immense lifetime..."
• "The Microvision laser projector seriously impresses me (and come on, you know how cynical I am!) but I'm not at all excited by those little DLP projectors that are just hitting the market... they are built on an old technology that isn't translating to the mobile world very well at all..."
• I have seen the videos of this product image. What I notice is so much better image quality in real life. It's worth mentioning a few facts:
1. Due to the slight difference between the refresh rate of video camera and the laser scan lines on the Microvision projector; the video image appears to flicker… which does not happen in "real life" and is a side-effect of recording projected image with a camera.
2. Most digital cameras don’t handle the low ambient light recording well and therefore don’t do the SHOWwx pico projector any favors... but the video images still look amazing!
• “Needless to say, I absolutely LOVE this product."
• "Yeah - Dad's mad about this, but I have to admit the demo was excellent. No focusing and a massive clear image created from a handset-sized device. Imagine sharing your images at a party on a wall...”
• “This unit outperforms the comparable Optoma unit and the actual projector is about 2/3rd of the size of an iPhone."
• “Those guys were stunned. I love to see the reaction of tech junkies like me.”
• “Just get me some big fat orders and I'll be happy.”… Obviously from someone who desperately wants to work for Microvision in the sales department.
• “You might mention that the flickering on the screen doesn't show when you're using the projector live. And yeah, I want one . . .”.
• “It is almost laughable now how the "green laser supply" issue has been blown out of all proportions by so many others. A serious public company with serious business doesn't require reading a bunch of tea leafs or put out a bunch of rumor fodder.”
• “Go back and look at all the posts for the last 8 years about how many "this is it" posts on a tea leaf reading have been pronounced and how many have come true?”
• “He could have been referring to a couple of large corporations with sales forces that have inquired about purchasing a number of units when available. However, I think they would want on-board memory so they can load-up a presentation without a second device hooked-up.”
• “Looks a lot better than the Pico Pocket Projector I reviewed a couple of months ago. Looking forward to buying SHOWwx with on-board memory in the near future!”
• “Brilliant! The fact that it's non-focus is the best part.”
• “… I think the SHOWWX is fantastic and everyone will want one when they find out about it.”
So there you have it, comments from those enamored with PicoP… those with inquisitive minds… and those who are skeptics.
Be careful with what you wish for!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Microvision: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage with Report (Part 2)
This post is the continuation of Part 1...
Pricing Strategy for PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
I see two huge markets for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx...
• The after market... that consists of over a billion of laptops, smartphones, DMPs and camcorders that already exist worldwide.
• The value add market... that consists of over a billion of low power mobile TV/Projectors for the third world countries, gaming projection devices, information Kiosks, projection billboards, video infomercial boxes, etc.
The After Market:
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx, you need to first consider billions of existing electronic devices that can utilize the added projection functionality for a decent price. SHOWwx is a standalone plug and play accessory that could be sold as such for premium prices in the after market... just like the after market for car accessories. Currently, the after market for pico projector accessory consists of more than 1 billion existing digital devices... over 700 million laptops, over 300 million smartphones, over 300 million DMPs and over 200 million camcorders.
The after market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product like SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. For starters, just think about over a billion laptops and smartphones that are out there... ready and willing. The owners of such laptops and smartphones are mostly professionals and can easily absorb [and justify] the added cost... as price of added projection functionality that improves productivity, communication, collaboration, and infotainment. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, SHOWwx can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit after market at a decent ASP of say $495... And offer 35% commission to its resale channel partners.
The Value Added Market:
In the near future, dedicated Mobile TV/Projectors will make a big splash in the personal and public viewing of media content… both in real time, a well as, for time shifted mode. Accessory pico projector SHOWwx is a natural companion to mobile TV to start with and can also be embedded when the champion OEM like Qualcomm realizes the true potential of a mobile TV/Projector combo. Mobile TV/Projector for the bedroom is a huge captive market of over a billion households around the world.
Over a billion households in energy starved Asian and East European countries are potential customers for low power mobile TV/Projector combo that can be used for personal or public viewing of media content … with the flexibility of connecting the accessory pico projector to other digital devices when a need arises to do so.
As you can see, the value added market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product that includes the projection functionality of SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, the value added product can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit markets at an ASP [to Microvision] of say $195. Since a champion OEM partner is embedding the PicoP display engine into the consumer product, there is no commissions involved.
Pricing Strategy for Embedded PicoP Display Engine:
Now let’s talk about the pricing and marketing strategy for the embedded PicoP display engine for the new consumer product cycle...
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for PicoP display engines, it is a gross mistake to use the pricing model that’s more applicable to “touch screens” for smartphones... like Oppenheimer has done in their Report. Touch screen is not an accessory for the host digital device... it is a component. And as a component it could sit on the shelf for years until an OEM champions the technology and adopts the said component in the future models as an enhancement.
If a component reduces the cost or adds to the value perception of the added functionality... it will be adopted quicker and may even command a decent price such as is the case with touch screens. I’m surprised that it took so long for the touch screens to become common place─ because human prefer video over other means of communication... and touch screens is indeed the [visual and touch] man/machine interface in smartphones.
Let’s first review the current status.
This is what I see…
Currently there is more demand than supply for the laser PicoP projector SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine. At first blush, that is a good enough reason to command a premium price compared to the competition... assuming there was something that the competition had to offer.
However, it is important to investigate why the demand is high. With little digging, and snooping around, you will see that high demand is directly related to the higher standards of SHOWwx: image quality; large size projection; vivid bright colors; always-in-focus on any projected surface; small physical size and longer battery run features. This is the reason number one for commanding premium prices for laser based PicoP display engines and projectors… and that is today, tomorrow and to the day until supply catches-up with demand.
Quality always comes at a cost. You want quality… then you pay for quality. As they say: “you can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.” In a nutshell, quality at premium price mantra applies to PicoP display engine pricing strategy today, tomorrow and every day… as long as the competition has nothing better to offer.
Another way to arrive at product pricing is by placing a dollar value on replacement cost of products eliminated by your product and then add to this the intrinsic value of your product’s other differentiating features.
Here’s an example of pricing strategy for both the SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine…
a. PicoP can replace a lamp based projector for small meetings and presentations… lamp based projector replacement cost $900.
b. PicoP allows impromptu presentations in bright and vivid colors and always stays in focus with 8 font readability in normal light conditions… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
c. PicoP in the bedroom to watch movies, shows and other streaming videos on the ceiling with no concern for projector location, has short throw ratio from bed to ceiling and always stays in focus… replacement cost of TV on the ceiling $ 900 and $500 in install cost.
d. PicoP can project 200” image size under certain lighting conditions like watching movies outdoors while camping, or with friends and neighbors on a dark summer night … feature value $400 as compared to the competition that is if you are willing to accept small size and washed out color projection.
e. PicoP projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
f. PicoP projects higher definition images [848x480]… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
g. PicoP projects always-in-focus images regardless of the distance or movement of the projector… priceless. This feature is the competition killer. Let’s face it, as an example, would you buy a car that needs starting again every time you stopped in traffic or at a red light?
Right, I didn’t think so.
You see, in case of pico projectors from the competition... you need to re-focus the image every time you move or want to change the size of projected image. It’s not quite like re-starting your car engine every time you stop in traffic... but you know what I mean.
h. PicoP projector gives you twice the projection time per battery charge as compared to the competition… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
i. PicoP projector used as a mobile TV [with a set-top box] saves you money on energy usage over its operating life [consuming less than 5 watts per hour] … feature value $1,200 in energy savings over a 10 year period
k. PicoP projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source… priceless or replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
Well, there you have it...
When you add the value of your product’s unique functionality to money savings from product features, plus the value of improved quality of experience, the total value proposition becomes worth lot more than the $15 [in wholesale] that Oppenheimer projects as the ASP for embedded PicoP display engine for 2016.
Oppenheimer analysts estimates for ASP [average sale price] from FY 2010 thru FY 2016 are absurd; considering the fact that pico projection is not only a product [as in stand alone accessory unit] but it will also open-up new applications for the host [ when embedded]; application that never existed before. Pico projectors, as standalone accessory, will drive new sales in the non-existent pico projector market and sell more of the host product [with a service contract] when embedded to offer the added pico projection functionality.
That’s the way most all of us expect the market for pico projection to develop... and not the other way around where the host decides “if and when” to offer embedded pico projectors. Do you really think the pico projection market is going to sit on its ass [et] and wait for the host to get-off its ass [et] to let the market have the opportunity to embrace and experience all that pico projection has to offer.
Almost all mobile phone carriers offer a free phone in exchange for a service contract that legally binds the subscriber for two or three year service. Razor companies like Gillette offer free Razors in the hopes of selling you the blades for the rest of your life. More and more companies are adopting this business model... if and when their product lends itself to a perpetual service contact.
As this business model grows in popularity, innovative financial models will evolve, as these companies will need to make upfront capital investments and recover it from customers over many years. This business model will embrace PicoP projection like glove to hand and could be the game changer for the first adopter. Partnering with Microvision will be more like the partnership of champions... rather than Microvision looking for a strong OEM champion for its technology.
It’s not about technology... it’s about consumer experience and perception of quality and value.
Purchase orders from distributors, OEMs and mobile phone carriers are solid validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s laser PicoP projector.
Multiple features and functionalities of exceptional quality from one tiny PicoP display engine; will command a price that certainly will be lot more that the $15 in 2016.
In closing and at the risk of being redundant, I would repeat what I said before...
“You can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Pricing Strategy for PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
I see two huge markets for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx...
• The after market... that consists of over a billion of laptops, smartphones, DMPs and camcorders that already exist worldwide.
• The value add market... that consists of over a billion of low power mobile TV/Projectors for the third world countries, gaming projection devices, information Kiosks, projection billboards, video infomercial boxes, etc.
The After Market:
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for the accessory pico projector SHOWwx, you need to first consider billions of existing electronic devices that can utilize the added projection functionality for a decent price. SHOWwx is a standalone plug and play accessory that could be sold as such for premium prices in the after market... just like the after market for car accessories. Currently, the after market for pico projector accessory consists of more than 1 billion existing digital devices... over 700 million laptops, over 300 million smartphones, over 300 million DMPs and over 200 million camcorders.
The after market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product like SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. For starters, just think about over a billion laptops and smartphones that are out there... ready and willing. The owners of such laptops and smartphones are mostly professionals and can easily absorb [and justify] the added cost... as price of added projection functionality that improves productivity, communication, collaboration, and infotainment. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, SHOWwx can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit after market at a decent ASP of say $495... And offer 35% commission to its resale channel partners.
The Value Added Market:
In the near future, dedicated Mobile TV/Projectors will make a big splash in the personal and public viewing of media content… both in real time, a well as, for time shifted mode. Accessory pico projector SHOWwx is a natural companion to mobile TV to start with and can also be embedded when the champion OEM like Qualcomm realizes the true potential of a mobile TV/Projector combo. Mobile TV/Projector for the bedroom is a huge captive market of over a billion households around the world.
Over a billion households in energy starved Asian and East European countries are potential customers for low power mobile TV/Projector combo that can be used for personal or public viewing of media content … with the flexibility of connecting the accessory pico projector to other digital devices when a need arises to do so.
As you can see, the value added market for pico projectors is huge and a quality product that includes the projection functionality of SHOWwx can quickly capture a large chunk of it. With the right marketing and promotion strategy, the value added product can very quickly tap into this billion plus unit markets at an ASP [to Microvision] of say $195. Since a champion OEM partner is embedding the PicoP display engine into the consumer product, there is no commissions involved.
Pricing Strategy for Embedded PicoP Display Engine:
Now let’s talk about the pricing and marketing strategy for the embedded PicoP display engine for the new consumer product cycle...
For the purpose of estimating future ASPs for PicoP display engines, it is a gross mistake to use the pricing model that’s more applicable to “touch screens” for smartphones... like Oppenheimer has done in their Report. Touch screen is not an accessory for the host digital device... it is a component. And as a component it could sit on the shelf for years until an OEM champions the technology and adopts the said component in the future models as an enhancement.
If a component reduces the cost or adds to the value perception of the added functionality... it will be adopted quicker and may even command a decent price such as is the case with touch screens. I’m surprised that it took so long for the touch screens to become common place─ because human prefer video over other means of communication... and touch screens is indeed the [visual and touch] man/machine interface in smartphones.
Let’s first review the current status.
This is what I see…
Currently there is more demand than supply for the laser PicoP projector SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine. At first blush, that is a good enough reason to command a premium price compared to the competition... assuming there was something that the competition had to offer.
However, it is important to investigate why the demand is high. With little digging, and snooping around, you will see that high demand is directly related to the higher standards of SHOWwx: image quality; large size projection; vivid bright colors; always-in-focus on any projected surface; small physical size and longer battery run features. This is the reason number one for commanding premium prices for laser based PicoP display engines and projectors… and that is today, tomorrow and to the day until supply catches-up with demand.
Quality always comes at a cost. You want quality… then you pay for quality. As they say: “you can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.” In a nutshell, quality at premium price mantra applies to PicoP display engine pricing strategy today, tomorrow and every day… as long as the competition has nothing better to offer.
Another way to arrive at product pricing is by placing a dollar value on replacement cost of products eliminated by your product and then add to this the intrinsic value of your product’s other differentiating features.
Here’s an example of pricing strategy for both the SHOWwx and the PicoP display engine…
a. PicoP can replace a lamp based projector for small meetings and presentations… lamp based projector replacement cost $900.
b. PicoP allows impromptu presentations in bright and vivid colors and always stays in focus with 8 font readability in normal light conditions… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
c. PicoP in the bedroom to watch movies, shows and other streaming videos on the ceiling with no concern for projector location, has short throw ratio from bed to ceiling and always stays in focus… replacement cost of TV on the ceiling $ 900 and $500 in install cost.
d. PicoP can project 200” image size under certain lighting conditions like watching movies outdoors while camping, or with friends and neighbors on a dark summer night … feature value $400 as compared to the competition that is if you are willing to accept small size and washed out color projection.
e. PicoP projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
f. PicoP projects higher definition images [848x480]… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition]
g. PicoP projects always-in-focus images regardless of the distance or movement of the projector… priceless. This feature is the competition killer. Let’s face it, as an example, would you buy a car that needs starting again every time you stopped in traffic or at a red light?
Right, I didn’t think so.
You see, in case of pico projectors from the competition... you need to re-focus the image every time you move or want to change the size of projected image. It’s not quite like re-starting your car engine every time you stop in traffic... but you know what I mean.
h. PicoP projector gives you twice the projection time per battery charge as compared to the competition… replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
i. PicoP projector used as a mobile TV [with a set-top box] saves you money on energy usage over its operating life [consuming less than 5 watts per hour] … feature value $1,200 in energy savings over a 10 year period
k. PicoP projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source… priceless or replacement cost $400 [the cost of inferior quality product from competition].
Well, there you have it...
When you add the value of your product’s unique functionality to money savings from product features, plus the value of improved quality of experience, the total value proposition becomes worth lot more than the $15 [in wholesale] that Oppenheimer projects as the ASP for embedded PicoP display engine for 2016.
Oppenheimer analysts estimates for ASP [average sale price] from FY 2010 thru FY 2016 are absurd; considering the fact that pico projection is not only a product [as in stand alone accessory unit] but it will also open-up new applications for the host [ when embedded]; application that never existed before. Pico projectors, as standalone accessory, will drive new sales in the non-existent pico projector market and sell more of the host product [with a service contract] when embedded to offer the added pico projection functionality.
That’s the way most all of us expect the market for pico projection to develop... and not the other way around where the host decides “if and when” to offer embedded pico projectors. Do you really think the pico projection market is going to sit on its ass [et] and wait for the host to get-off its ass [et] to let the market have the opportunity to embrace and experience all that pico projection has to offer.
Almost all mobile phone carriers offer a free phone in exchange for a service contract that legally binds the subscriber for two or three year service. Razor companies like Gillette offer free Razors in the hopes of selling you the blades for the rest of your life. More and more companies are adopting this business model... if and when their product lends itself to a perpetual service contact.
As this business model grows in popularity, innovative financial models will evolve, as these companies will need to make upfront capital investments and recover it from customers over many years. This business model will embrace PicoP projection like glove to hand and could be the game changer for the first adopter. Partnering with Microvision will be more like the partnership of champions... rather than Microvision looking for a strong OEM champion for its technology.
It’s not about technology... it’s about consumer experience and perception of quality and value.
Purchase orders from distributors, OEMs and mobile phone carriers are solid validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s laser PicoP projector.
Multiple features and functionalities of exceptional quality from one tiny PicoP display engine; will command a price that certainly will be lot more that the $15 in 2016.
In closing and at the risk of being redundant, I would repeat what I said before...
“You can buy crap from the competition for half the price… but at the end of the day you still got crap at half the price.”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime (Part 5)
The cost of missing out can be greater than the cost of messing up.
“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.” …Leonard Ravenhill
From time to time, during the course of our lives, we are granted the "opportunity of a lifetime. It's a chance that doesn't come our way very often, and usually one that would result in enormous financial benefits to us… if we can manage to get hold of it before it fades away.
Here’s the REASON #5… to not let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…
Microvision: Paradigm Shift “Atoms” to “Bits”
No, this article is not about breaking Atoms into Bits… like in nuclear fission.
It is, however, all about the next wave of change, a paradigm shift, where real physical things [made-up of Atoms] are giving way to virtual things that physically don’t exist but function equally well with interweaved streams of bits, bytes, electrons and photons.
Consider this…
The Internet and mobile networks have reached a critical mass in terms of adoption, ease and speed of access, and data and financial security. This critical mass is now forging the next wave of change or a paradigm shift called “Atoms” to “Bits”. In the last few years, as you may have noticed, physical things [made up of Atoms] are giving way to electrons, photons and bits & bytes… in more of our every day activities and lives.
Some examples would be: comparison shopping on-line from virtual stores and paying by credit cards; on-line prescriptions; accessing & retrieving information on-line; banking and paying bills on-line; communications and information exchange on-line; rich text and video e-mails; on-line advertising and promotions; podcast & webcast; webinars and distant learning from virtual universities; telecommuting, teleconferencing and video conferencing; streaming videos in place of DVDs; on-line brokerage and virtual trading platforms; electronic buying and selling commodity exchanges, etc.
I think you get the idea. This paradigm shift has been underway for a while… but it is only recently [in the last three to four years] that it’s having a profound impact on brick & mortar type businesses. The on-line B2B and B2C business has grown from a few billion dollars a year to hundreds of billions of dollars in year 2009. And at the rate we are going, further technological enhancements in Internet, mobile networks, RGB lasers, nano technologies, augmented reality and automation will further increase the virtual commerce to over a trillion dollars in a short few years.
The paradigm shift from “Atoms” to “Bits”, as I call it, will be detrimental to many traditional businesses that still maintain monolithic physical presence and hang-on to the old business model in spite of visible signs of change and the resultant demand destruction for many traditional products and services. When you consider the impact of rising operating costs, higher taxes, rising fuel cost and higher costs of raw materials of all kind… you have the making of a witch’s brew that is sure to knock out any business that fails to change with the times. Those companies that recognize the evolution of Internet; mobile networks; augmented reality; nano technology; dramatic shift to virtual commerce; and automation ─ and have the vision to recognize its far-reaching impact on traditional business models, can capitalize from the revolution and not be its victim.
Blockbuster is a good example, shutting down stores and developing new alliances with cable operators. Rite-Aid looks like a bankruptcy candidate… unless they find a way to improve their balance sheet. And how about those high vacancy rates in malls, shopping centers and the ever so declining foot traffic of shoppers into such establishments?
Companies that fail to embrace the Real Time nature of globally connected New World Economy of the Internet and mobile networks will slowly disappear… cut down to nothing by the competition… or be acquired at massive discounts.
Massive changes are taking place in the way business is done, customers are acquired and served, financial transactions are conducted, risk is managed, and investments are made today. You can embrace the changes and go with the flow, to capitalize and gain from it, or be a victim of the change itself. Choices are simple but the impact will be massive. The real time information, traveling at the speed of light to billion(s) of informed and educated potential customers, consumers and investors around the globe, can very quickly take your company to higher levels of financial success or, on the flip side, simply cut it down to size forever.
The subject of this post, paradigm shift from Atoms to Bits, is not only complex but is very broad in nature and it’s not my intent to discuss it here at any great detail in this forum. However, I do intend to discuss two major changes that are taking place right under our noses… and directly impact our investment in companies like Microvision and Apple...
Change #1: Computer laptops are taking over and dominating the PC world. Every year the laptop adoption rates have grown dramatically over their desktop brethren. IDC predicts the number of worldwide mobile workers will reach 1 billion─ including nearly 75% of the U.S. workforce ─ by the end of 2011. Is your company prepared for this shift in the mobile workforce? Download this new report to see what IDC has to say about mobile worker population trends, forecasts and technology recommendations.
Here’ the link…
http://whitepapers.silicon.com/0,39024759,60431682p,00.htm
Notebook Computers: It is well known that the screen size [of billion strong mobile workforce using laptops] is one of the main determining factors in laptop form-factor design. Vendors and consumers alike are pulled in opposite directions: Make the computer smaller, but improve screen readability. Adding mobile projection allows for smaller form factor design while providing a large screen display when desired. The market size for pico projectors, therefore, is huge to the tune of over a billion units world-wide.
Change #2: We already know the ubiquitous nature of the Internet, the laptops and mobile phones around the world. However, what we may not know that there is yet another mega change taking place right under our noses…
The mobile phones have become ubiquitous globally on one hand… and on the other hand we have the smartphones taking market share from the mobile phones. The billion or so a year mobile phone market is giving way to the smartphones.
• Smartphones are rapidly replacing the classic mobile phones around the globe
“Worldwide mobile phone sales totalled 286.1 million units in the second quarter of 2009, a 6.1 per cent decrease from the second quarter of 2008, according to Gartner, Inc. Smartphones sales surpassed 40 million units, a 27 per cent increase from the same period last year, representing the fastest-growing segment of the mobile-devices market.”
Here’s the link to Gartner report…
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1126812
"Smartphones sales were strong during the second quarter of 2009, with sales of 40.9 million units in line with Gartner's forecast of 27 per cent year-on-year sales growth for 2009," said Ms Milanesi. "Given the higher margins, smartphones offer the biggest opportunity for manufacturers. It is the fastest-growing market segment and the most resistant to declining ASPs."
Smartphones are feature rich mobile devices that consist of a mini-laptop with built-in mobile phone and connected to a service provider [carrier] via a broadband mobile network like the 3G. Smartphones are feature rich mobile phones and one of the key features that have plans to be offered in the high-end smartphones is a pico projector… as an accessory unit initially… followed by the embedded version in 2010. Future smartphones are expected to include, or offered as an option, a pico projector as a standard unit just like the digital camera is today.
It is my belief that in the coming short years all sorts of video devices and services will dominate our communications, collaboration, networking, entertainment and learning world.
• Pico projectors are being developed as an embedded feature in all things digital
The next popular categories that integrate pico projectors would be mobile computing [laptops] and communication [cell phones, smartphones] devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as personal media players [iPod], digital cameras, digital camcorders and Integrated Mobile TV/projectors.
Why pico projectors are such a rage all of a sudden… you may ask?
That’s a fair question and can be answered in four parts…
Part 1: Pico Projectors can add Big Screen Experience to Small Devices
Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat: “As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded pico projectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal.
Part 2: Rapidly Evolving Illumination Technologies like LEDs and Green Lasers
In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that Pico projectors will become part and parcel of relatively low cost cell phones, media players and other digital consumer electronic devices.
“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making Pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.
Part 3: Powerful & Always Connected. Functions Rich Devices with Enhanced Visual Experience
Today, the mobile devices are ubiquitous and if you were to project out the current trends another ten years…
“You will be carrying with you, on a 24x7 basis, a very powerful, always connected, functions & sensor-rich device with enhanced visual experience… called the Smartphones. And the cool thing is, so will everyone else. So what are you going to do with it that you aren't doing now?
Before we consider the possibilities, let’s first address the ubiquity of the mobile devices and extrapolate the current trends towards the mobile phones of the future for everyone on this planet. In other words, the mobile phones of to-day will pave the path to ubiquity for Smartphones of tomorrow… and that tomorrow may be here as early as the next 10 years. And what’s good for smartphones of tomorrow is indeed good for pico projectors as an accessory of as an embedded unit.
Consider this…
As more and more consumers switch to smartphones globally, the Blackberry and iPhone are picking up market share at the expense of foreign competitors such as Nokia.
However, the good news is that the overall smartphones market is growing faster than ever. In 2008, a total of 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold worldwide, according to IDC, of which some 160 million were smartphones, or 13%. In 2013, IDC predicts that 20% of the 1.4 billion mobile phones sold will be smartphones, or 280 million.
Currently, we know what smartphones like Blackberry and iPhone offer. What we don’t know and, therefore, we can only speculate what additional functionality and features the future smartphones may offer. Here’s a list of what the future may hold in store for the consumers…
Here’s the link to my post on this very subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in_19.html
There is one paragraph from the post that I want you to read again…
Enhanced Visual Experience: Not too long ago, a mobile phone offered only a one-to-one viewing experience with little room for personalization and lacking the cool factor. Soon Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will change the DNA of the phone, making it more visual, interactive and unique to the user. Taking this a step further, your cell phone will become a “one-to-many” tool, allowing us to share mobile content with groups of friends, family and colleagues. In the not-too-distant future, road warriors [the billion strong mobile workforces] will be showing presentations to a room full of colleagues via a projector accessory [SHOWwx] for their mobile phones. We have only begun to unleash the mobile visual experience.
Now, let’s take it a step further and gather some information from real life consumers that will eventually become user of enhanced communications products…
• Video vs. Other Forms of Communications: Research has shown that users prefer video communication over other forms of communication [sound, smell, touch] and video will continue to be the preferred means of all human communications.
• Users Preference for Image Quality: Research has shown that users prefer wide screen, high definition, 2D/3D video with fast refresh [without motion blur] and always in focus images for all forms of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• User Preference for Mobility: The entire world [users and service providers] is getting into the instant gratification mode and going mobile in all forms of communications and entertainment across the globe.
• Product Features Leading to Technological Convergence: Technological convergence is the tendency for different technological systems to evolve towards performing similar tasks. Today, we are surrounded by a multi-level convergent media world where all modes of communication and information are continually reforming to adapt to the enduring demands of technologies, “changing the way we create, consume, entertain, learn and interact with each other”.
Convergence in this instance is defined as the interlinking of computing and other information technologies, media content and communication networks that have arisen as the result of the evolution and ubiquity of the Internet as well as the activities, products and services that have emerged in the digital media space.
• Customers Requirements: Customers desire all digital/video devices to be low power, low cost, multi-media enabled, multi-tasking, integrated & all inclusive, easy to use, low maintenance, professionally supported and warranty serviced.
• Consumer Defined Shared vs. Private Information: Consumers desire the option [in product models or optional features] or built-in switch able flexibility in these digital/video devices to be able to switch between “shared” vs. “private” mode.
Having established the huge market size [and consumer preferences] for pico projector lets move on to identifying the leading pico projection technology that hopes to fulfill the consumer needs…
Laser based Pico display technology is superior to what’s out there right now… like DLP by Texas Instruments, LcoS by 3M and FLCOS by Micron Displaytech. The competition believed that green lasers wouldn’t be ready for years and its cost would be excessive. They also had concerns about laser projection “speckle” and laser safety issues. It is for these reasons, in my opinion, that they did not pursue the laser pico display technology path and essentially left the laser Pico technology to Microvision un-contested.
Microvision on the other hand believed in the green lasers as being the differentiating technology that would make Pico display engine as superior to LED based Pico projection technology… and also as a serious contender, in terms of quality and brightness of images, to the lamp based projection technology.
There were several hic-ups along the way. However, after three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, and 115 issued patents later, the world’s first laser based PicoP projector was commercially launched on September 15th, 2009.
Not only that, another announcement was made [on October 8th] of a major OEM purchase order as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…
“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.
To make the matter even more interesting, another announcement was made [on October 27th] of a purchase order from a World Leading Mobile Phone Operator…
Microvision Lands Order For SHOWWX Laser Pico Projectors With World Leading Mobile Phone Operator
Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 6:30 am EDT, Tuesday October 27, 2009
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and image-capture products for mobility applications, announced today that it has received an initial purchase order from its European distributor for its SHOWWX™ laser-based pico projector to be sold by one of the world’s top mobile phone operators. The initial quantities of SHOWWX are expected to be deployed within the next month in Europe and at that time more details are expected to be provided by the mobile carrier.
“We are extremely pleased to welcome our first global mobile phone operator as a SHOWWX launch customer for 2009,” stated Alexander Tokman, Microvision President and CEO. “Carriers serve as the frontline to mobile subscribers and as a result often influence mobile handset designs to include new features that delight their customers and help achieve a broader subscriber base and higher revenue per user. We believe that interest from one of the three largest carriers in the world in this application and specifically in Microvision’s PicoP® laser projection technology is an important first step towards future accessory and embedded opportunities.”
Microvision’s Made for iPod® SHOWWX laser pico projector, based on the PicoP display engine, delivers a colorful, vivid “big screen” viewing experience from a device about the size of a mobile phone. Users of the SHOWWX can also connect to other portable media players, mobile phones and notebooks to spontaneously share movies, YouTube™, photos, presentations and more with their friends, family or business associates. The SHOWWX can project images up to 200 inches across, depending on the ambient lighting conditions, without the user ever having to adjust focus.
Here’s the link to press release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Lands-Order-For-bw-181864591.html?x=0&.v=1
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator represent as …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.
• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.
• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.
• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments.
• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 115 issued patents and with many more on file.
• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser based PicoP projectors as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.
• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.
• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.
• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.
Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.
Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…
Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:
First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...
http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf
After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increases in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.
Here’s why…
In any investment, it is very important to look at RISK vs. REWARD.
After having done considerable amount of research and analysis of Microvision, I would like to share the following conclusions [in a summary form]….
Stock Volatility: Over the last few weeks, both the “Historical Volatility” and “Implied Volatility” have come down gradually. Currently, the HV is 80 and the IV is 96. Looks like we now have more believers [long] than speculators [shorts] on board. Also, this stock is now part of Russell 2000/3000 and as such is subject to small cap market volatility… which has been coming down in recent weeks.
Volatility is unavoidable in small-cap investing. It can be a gut-wrenching, stress-inducing part of the small-cap investing experience, or it can be the grease that runs the profit machine. Where a 3% move in Microsoft or McDonald's would be out of the ordinary, good or bad news can routinely move small caps' share prices more than 10%. It can be tough for an investor to handle, but the determining factor is self-discipline.
• Determine your small-cap investment criteria
Small-cap investing has high -- yet manageable -- risk, at least when compared to value or income investing. Significant returns probably will not materialize early on in any individual investment. A conscious decision on one's small cap risk limit is essential. Those relying on investments for regular income should be extremely cautious with small-cap investing.
• Perform due diligence before pulling the trigger
Investors sometimes invest without understanding the company's business. Then, at the first sign of negative volatility, they finally scramble to look at the firm's financial statements. That's being reactive, not proactive. You need to understand a company before investing in it. If the stock happens to rally to unattractive levels while you're doing your research, you'll nonetheless be in a great position to buy when the stock inevitably dips. If the stock falls, you'll know more about the company and therefore be less prone to panic. Cognitive scientists have determined that uncertainty is one of the most stressful and painful emotional states. Prior due diligence reduces the element of surprise and is the most effective way of minimizing investment uncertainty.
• Due diligence does not only include checking the criteria for buying a stock. With rare exception, it should also include formulating the conditions for selling based on the stock's valuation. Because small-cap companies often have greater growth prospects than blue-chip companies, your reasons for selling a small-cap company are more apt to change
Stock Short Interest: Over the last few weeks, the short interest has gone up and now stands at 11% [8.38 million shares] of the float [63.19 million shares]. All in all, at the current low average volume per day, it will take about 10 days to cover… about 8.38 million shares short… trading 895,000 shares per day average over the last 3 months.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=MVIS&selected=MVIS
Stock Trading Range: For a period of four weeks [from September 21 to October 22] the stock traded over $5 in a very tight range of “$5.02 to $5.52”. We have seen some very volatile days on Wall Street in the last 10 days [from October 24 to November 4]… and the stock has come down to $3.70 and now seems to be holding at this level as a very strong support… and waiting for next announcement of news. The stock price has crossed under the 50 day moving average [at $4.50] and seems to have very strong support at $3.66 or so. This is where the stock price was before the commercial launch of SHOWwx [on September 15th] and three purchase orders in October. The reason for the stock price drop, in my opinion, is due mainly to the uncertainty associated with quantities of green lasers that are essential to fulfilling the three initial purchase orders.
Here’s the stock chart…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
However, if you look at the P&F [point and figure] chart the stock is still in the uptrend channel with a “bullish price” of $8.31.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=MVIS,P&listNum=
Stock Holding: Institutions hold about 14.40% and the Insiders hold over 16.93% of the outstanding stock [63.19 million float on a fully diluted basis]. This means that over 68.67% of the float is held by retail investors. This is a very wide distribution of MVIS stock… a good sign for PPS support [during lean times] and PPS momentum [during good times] when institutions finally wake-up and come looking to take position in the MVIS stock directly… or decide to invest aggressively in small cap stocks indexed by Russell 2000/3000.
Short Term Risk [next four weeks]: Over the next four weeks [up until the announcement of the European mobile phone carrier] the stock PPS could trade in tight range of $3.65 to $3.80… but hopefully does not trade any lower than $3.37. This is the short term risk to PPS… mainly due to lack of news or release of any significant news over the next few weeks.
Mid Term Risk [next 2 Qtrs]: There is a very strong possibility that an additional OEM contract [and purchase order] and increased quantities of SHOWwx shipments will be announced on a monthly basis from hereon. In such a case, the PPS may just take-off to new highs for the year and not look back. As we know, there is more demand for Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx than the supply of green lasers and that bodes well for the mid term future… as there could be monthly announcements of OEM contracts and agreements for rest of the year 2010.
Two of the supply chain issues could be “green laser cost” and “green laser volume production”. Feasibility and product development of the various PicoP display engine components is not an issue. The issue [if any] could be with the price and mass production of green lasers from Corning. The supply chain issue is real and has affected the full blown end of summer 2009 commercial product launch. The delay in large quantity shipments, however, may be short and you could see quick recovery in PPS… as the second green laser supplier Osram comes on board in the next few weeks.
Also, there is a strong possibility that the company may be selling some more shares to fund its short term cash flow needs beyond June 2010… in case there is cash flow short fall from sale of products and services. That’s the mid-term risk… but I will take it with a smile.
Long Term Risk [over 2 years]: If the company can fast track the volume production of PicoP display engines and SHOWwx laser projectors to a few million units a year [the good case scenario] or survives the “hostile” take-over attempt in the mid-term [precipitated as a result of major supply chain issues], there is no long term issue… because the market is huge and the company has leadership position in four (4) different product categories.
Reward: For those who understand the company’s — business model; the various products; the size [and the pull] of the captive world wide market— the rewards are phenomenal.
Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…
• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, camcorders, digital cameras, mobile TV/Projectors etc.]
• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]
• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units
• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units
• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine
• Revenue: $4 billion
• Net Profit Margin: 40%
• Net Profit: $1.6 billion
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]
• Interest Expense: $0 million
• Interest Income: $20 million
• Tax: $220million
• Depreciation: non cash and very small
• Amortization: non cash and very small
• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion
• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]
• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company
• Price Per Share: $390 per share
In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 5 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.
Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP display engines will be larger than the supply."
Here’s the link to Microvision web site…
http://www.microvision.com/
This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.” …Leonard Ravenhill
From time to time, during the course of our lives, we are granted the "opportunity of a lifetime. It's a chance that doesn't come our way very often, and usually one that would result in enormous financial benefits to us… if we can manage to get hold of it before it fades away.
Here’s the REASON #5… to not let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…
Microvision: Paradigm Shift “Atoms” to “Bits”
No, this article is not about breaking Atoms into Bits… like in nuclear fission.
It is, however, all about the next wave of change, a paradigm shift, where real physical things [made-up of Atoms] are giving way to virtual things that physically don’t exist but function equally well with interweaved streams of bits, bytes, electrons and photons.
Consider this…
The Internet and mobile networks have reached a critical mass in terms of adoption, ease and speed of access, and data and financial security. This critical mass is now forging the next wave of change or a paradigm shift called “Atoms” to “Bits”. In the last few years, as you may have noticed, physical things [made up of Atoms] are giving way to electrons, photons and bits & bytes… in more of our every day activities and lives.
Some examples would be: comparison shopping on-line from virtual stores and paying by credit cards; on-line prescriptions; accessing & retrieving information on-line; banking and paying bills on-line; communications and information exchange on-line; rich text and video e-mails; on-line advertising and promotions; podcast & webcast; webinars and distant learning from virtual universities; telecommuting, teleconferencing and video conferencing; streaming videos in place of DVDs; on-line brokerage and virtual trading platforms; electronic buying and selling commodity exchanges, etc.
I think you get the idea. This paradigm shift has been underway for a while… but it is only recently [in the last three to four years] that it’s having a profound impact on brick & mortar type businesses. The on-line B2B and B2C business has grown from a few billion dollars a year to hundreds of billions of dollars in year 2009. And at the rate we are going, further technological enhancements in Internet, mobile networks, RGB lasers, nano technologies, augmented reality and automation will further increase the virtual commerce to over a trillion dollars in a short few years.
The paradigm shift from “Atoms” to “Bits”, as I call it, will be detrimental to many traditional businesses that still maintain monolithic physical presence and hang-on to the old business model in spite of visible signs of change and the resultant demand destruction for many traditional products and services. When you consider the impact of rising operating costs, higher taxes, rising fuel cost and higher costs of raw materials of all kind… you have the making of a witch’s brew that is sure to knock out any business that fails to change with the times. Those companies that recognize the evolution of Internet; mobile networks; augmented reality; nano technology; dramatic shift to virtual commerce; and automation ─ and have the vision to recognize its far-reaching impact on traditional business models, can capitalize from the revolution and not be its victim.
Blockbuster is a good example, shutting down stores and developing new alliances with cable operators. Rite-Aid looks like a bankruptcy candidate… unless they find a way to improve their balance sheet. And how about those high vacancy rates in malls, shopping centers and the ever so declining foot traffic of shoppers into such establishments?
Companies that fail to embrace the Real Time nature of globally connected New World Economy of the Internet and mobile networks will slowly disappear… cut down to nothing by the competition… or be acquired at massive discounts.
Massive changes are taking place in the way business is done, customers are acquired and served, financial transactions are conducted, risk is managed, and investments are made today. You can embrace the changes and go with the flow, to capitalize and gain from it, or be a victim of the change itself. Choices are simple but the impact will be massive. The real time information, traveling at the speed of light to billion(s) of informed and educated potential customers, consumers and investors around the globe, can very quickly take your company to higher levels of financial success or, on the flip side, simply cut it down to size forever.
The subject of this post, paradigm shift from Atoms to Bits, is not only complex but is very broad in nature and it’s not my intent to discuss it here at any great detail in this forum. However, I do intend to discuss two major changes that are taking place right under our noses… and directly impact our investment in companies like Microvision and Apple...
Change #1: Computer laptops are taking over and dominating the PC world. Every year the laptop adoption rates have grown dramatically over their desktop brethren. IDC predicts the number of worldwide mobile workers will reach 1 billion─ including nearly 75% of the U.S. workforce ─ by the end of 2011. Is your company prepared for this shift in the mobile workforce? Download this new report to see what IDC has to say about mobile worker population trends, forecasts and technology recommendations.
Here’ the link…
http://whitepapers.silicon.com/0,39024759,60431682p,00.htm
Notebook Computers: It is well known that the screen size [of billion strong mobile workforce using laptops] is one of the main determining factors in laptop form-factor design. Vendors and consumers alike are pulled in opposite directions: Make the computer smaller, but improve screen readability. Adding mobile projection allows for smaller form factor design while providing a large screen display when desired. The market size for pico projectors, therefore, is huge to the tune of over a billion units world-wide.
Change #2: We already know the ubiquitous nature of the Internet, the laptops and mobile phones around the world. However, what we may not know that there is yet another mega change taking place right under our noses…
The mobile phones have become ubiquitous globally on one hand… and on the other hand we have the smartphones taking market share from the mobile phones. The billion or so a year mobile phone market is giving way to the smartphones.
• Smartphones are rapidly replacing the classic mobile phones around the globe
“Worldwide mobile phone sales totalled 286.1 million units in the second quarter of 2009, a 6.1 per cent decrease from the second quarter of 2008, according to Gartner, Inc. Smartphones sales surpassed 40 million units, a 27 per cent increase from the same period last year, representing the fastest-growing segment of the mobile-devices market.”
Here’s the link to Gartner report…
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1126812
"Smartphones sales were strong during the second quarter of 2009, with sales of 40.9 million units in line with Gartner's forecast of 27 per cent year-on-year sales growth for 2009," said Ms Milanesi. "Given the higher margins, smartphones offer the biggest opportunity for manufacturers. It is the fastest-growing market segment and the most resistant to declining ASPs."
Smartphones are feature rich mobile devices that consist of a mini-laptop with built-in mobile phone and connected to a service provider [carrier] via a broadband mobile network like the 3G. Smartphones are feature rich mobile phones and one of the key features that have plans to be offered in the high-end smartphones is a pico projector… as an accessory unit initially… followed by the embedded version in 2010. Future smartphones are expected to include, or offered as an option, a pico projector as a standard unit just like the digital camera is today.
It is my belief that in the coming short years all sorts of video devices and services will dominate our communications, collaboration, networking, entertainment and learning world.
• Pico projectors are being developed as an embedded feature in all things digital
The next popular categories that integrate pico projectors would be mobile computing [laptops] and communication [cell phones, smartphones] devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as personal media players [iPod], digital cameras, digital camcorders and Integrated Mobile TV/projectors.
Why pico projectors are such a rage all of a sudden… you may ask?
That’s a fair question and can be answered in four parts…
Part 1: Pico Projectors can add Big Screen Experience to Small Devices
Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat: “As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded pico projectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal.
Part 2: Rapidly Evolving Illumination Technologies like LEDs and Green Lasers
In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that Pico projectors will become part and parcel of relatively low cost cell phones, media players and other digital consumer electronic devices.
“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making Pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.
Part 3: Powerful & Always Connected. Functions Rich Devices with Enhanced Visual Experience
Today, the mobile devices are ubiquitous and if you were to project out the current trends another ten years…
“You will be carrying with you, on a 24x7 basis, a very powerful, always connected, functions & sensor-rich device with enhanced visual experience… called the Smartphones. And the cool thing is, so will everyone else. So what are you going to do with it that you aren't doing now?
Before we consider the possibilities, let’s first address the ubiquity of the mobile devices and extrapolate the current trends towards the mobile phones of the future for everyone on this planet. In other words, the mobile phones of to-day will pave the path to ubiquity for Smartphones of tomorrow… and that tomorrow may be here as early as the next 10 years. And what’s good for smartphones of tomorrow is indeed good for pico projectors as an accessory of as an embedded unit.
Consider this…
• There are currently about 3.2 billion mobile subscribers in the world, and that number is expected to grow by at least a billion in the next few years.However, have you ever considered just exactly how powerful these ubiquitous devices are and if the current trends were to be extrapolated… what future mobile device will look like? Whatever the name [or logo] on the cover, under the hood these mobile phones of the future will be the smartphones that will be very smart [pun intended] and very powerful. Smartphones like “Blackberry” considered a business tool are now successfully targeting consumers. On the other hand, “iPhone” considered a consumer product is now targeting business customers. Some day, they may converge and pretty much offer the same power, functionality, connectivity, long battery life and ease of use etc.
• Today, mobile phones are more prevalent than cars (about 800 million registered vehicles in the world) and credit cards (only 1.4 billion of those).
• While it took 100 years for landline phones to spread to more than 80% of the countries in the world, their wireless descendants did it in only 16 years.
• Fewer teens are wearing watches now because they use their phones to tell time instead. So it's safe to say that the mobile phone may be the most productive and ubiquitous consumer product ever invented.
As more and more consumers switch to smartphones globally, the Blackberry and iPhone are picking up market share at the expense of foreign competitors such as Nokia.
However, the good news is that the overall smartphones market is growing faster than ever. In 2008, a total of 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold worldwide, according to IDC, of which some 160 million were smartphones, or 13%. In 2013, IDC predicts that 20% of the 1.4 billion mobile phones sold will be smartphones, or 280 million.
Currently, we know what smartphones like Blackberry and iPhone offer. What we don’t know and, therefore, we can only speculate what additional functionality and features the future smartphones may offer. Here’s a list of what the future may hold in store for the consumers…
Here’s the link to my post on this very subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/10/microvision-opportunity-of-lifetime-in_19.html
There is one paragraph from the post that I want you to read again…
Enhanced Visual Experience: Not too long ago, a mobile phone offered only a one-to-one viewing experience with little room for personalization and lacking the cool factor. Soon Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will change the DNA of the phone, making it more visual, interactive and unique to the user. Taking this a step further, your cell phone will become a “one-to-many” tool, allowing us to share mobile content with groups of friends, family and colleagues. In the not-too-distant future, road warriors [the billion strong mobile workforces] will be showing presentations to a room full of colleagues via a projector accessory [SHOWwx] for their mobile phones. We have only begun to unleash the mobile visual experience.
Now, let’s take it a step further and gather some information from real life consumers that will eventually become user of enhanced communications products…
• Video vs. Other Forms of Communications: Research has shown that users prefer video communication over other forms of communication [sound, smell, touch] and video will continue to be the preferred means of all human communications.
• Users Preference for Image Quality: Research has shown that users prefer wide screen, high definition, 2D/3D video with fast refresh [without motion blur] and always in focus images for all forms of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• User Preference for Mobility: The entire world [users and service providers] is getting into the instant gratification mode and going mobile in all forms of communications and entertainment across the globe.
• Product Features Leading to Technological Convergence: Technological convergence is the tendency for different technological systems to evolve towards performing similar tasks. Today, we are surrounded by a multi-level convergent media world where all modes of communication and information are continually reforming to adapt to the enduring demands of technologies, “changing the way we create, consume, entertain, learn and interact with each other”.
Convergence in this instance is defined as the interlinking of computing and other information technologies, media content and communication networks that have arisen as the result of the evolution and ubiquity of the Internet as well as the activities, products and services that have emerged in the digital media space.
• Customers Requirements: Customers desire all digital/video devices to be low power, low cost, multi-media enabled, multi-tasking, integrated & all inclusive, easy to use, low maintenance, professionally supported and warranty serviced.
• Consumer Defined Shared vs. Private Information: Consumers desire the option [in product models or optional features] or built-in switch able flexibility in these digital/video devices to be able to switch between “shared” vs. “private” mode.
Having established the huge market size [and consumer preferences] for pico projector lets move on to identifying the leading pico projection technology that hopes to fulfill the consumer needs…
Laser based Pico display technology is superior to what’s out there right now… like DLP by Texas Instruments, LcoS by 3M and FLCOS by Micron Displaytech. The competition believed that green lasers wouldn’t be ready for years and its cost would be excessive. They also had concerns about laser projection “speckle” and laser safety issues. It is for these reasons, in my opinion, that they did not pursue the laser pico display technology path and essentially left the laser Pico technology to Microvision un-contested.
Microvision on the other hand believed in the green lasers as being the differentiating technology that would make Pico display engine as superior to LED based Pico projection technology… and also as a serious contender, in terms of quality and brightness of images, to the lamp based projection technology.
There were several hic-ups along the way. However, after three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, and 115 issued patents later, the world’s first laser based PicoP projector was commercially launched on September 15th, 2009.
Not only that, another announcement was made [on October 8th] of a major OEM purchase order as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…
“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.
To make the matter even more interesting, another announcement was made [on October 27th] of a purchase order from a World Leading Mobile Phone Operator…
Microvision Lands Order For SHOWWX Laser Pico Projectors With World Leading Mobile Phone Operator
Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On 6:30 am EDT, Tuesday October 27, 2009
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a global leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and image-capture products for mobility applications, announced today that it has received an initial purchase order from its European distributor for its SHOWWX™ laser-based pico projector to be sold by one of the world’s top mobile phone operators. The initial quantities of SHOWWX are expected to be deployed within the next month in Europe and at that time more details are expected to be provided by the mobile carrier.
“We are extremely pleased to welcome our first global mobile phone operator as a SHOWWX launch customer for 2009,” stated Alexander Tokman, Microvision President and CEO. “Carriers serve as the frontline to mobile subscribers and as a result often influence mobile handset designs to include new features that delight their customers and help achieve a broader subscriber base and higher revenue per user. We believe that interest from one of the three largest carriers in the world in this application and specifically in Microvision’s PicoP® laser projection technology is an important first step towards future accessory and embedded opportunities.”
Microvision’s Made for iPod® SHOWWX laser pico projector, based on the PicoP display engine, delivers a colorful, vivid “big screen” viewing experience from a device about the size of a mobile phone. Users of the SHOWWX can also connect to other portable media players, mobile phones and notebooks to spontaneously share movies, YouTube™, photos, presentations and more with their friends, family or business associates. The SHOWWX can project images up to 200 inches across, depending on the ambient lighting conditions, without the user ever having to adjust focus.
*****
Here’s the link to press release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Lands-Order-For-bw-181864591.html?x=0&.v=1
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator represent as …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.
• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.
• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.
• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments.
• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 115 issued patents and with many more on file.
• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser based PicoP projectors as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.
• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.
• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.
• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.
Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.
Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…
Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:
First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...
http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf
After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increases in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.
Here’s why…
In any investment, it is very important to look at RISK vs. REWARD.
After having done considerable amount of research and analysis of Microvision, I would like to share the following conclusions [in a summary form]….
Stock Volatility: Over the last few weeks, both the “Historical Volatility” and “Implied Volatility” have come down gradually. Currently, the HV is 80 and the IV is 96. Looks like we now have more believers [long] than speculators [shorts] on board. Also, this stock is now part of Russell 2000/3000 and as such is subject to small cap market volatility… which has been coming down in recent weeks.
Volatility is unavoidable in small-cap investing. It can be a gut-wrenching, stress-inducing part of the small-cap investing experience, or it can be the grease that runs the profit machine. Where a 3% move in Microsoft or McDonald's would be out of the ordinary, good or bad news can routinely move small caps' share prices more than 10%. It can be tough for an investor to handle, but the determining factor is self-discipline.
• Determine your small-cap investment criteria
Small-cap investing has high -- yet manageable -- risk, at least when compared to value or income investing. Significant returns probably will not materialize early on in any individual investment. A conscious decision on one's small cap risk limit is essential. Those relying on investments for regular income should be extremely cautious with small-cap investing.
• Perform due diligence before pulling the trigger
Investors sometimes invest without understanding the company's business. Then, at the first sign of negative volatility, they finally scramble to look at the firm's financial statements. That's being reactive, not proactive. You need to understand a company before investing in it. If the stock happens to rally to unattractive levels while you're doing your research, you'll nonetheless be in a great position to buy when the stock inevitably dips. If the stock falls, you'll know more about the company and therefore be less prone to panic. Cognitive scientists have determined that uncertainty is one of the most stressful and painful emotional states. Prior due diligence reduces the element of surprise and is the most effective way of minimizing investment uncertainty.
• Due diligence does not only include checking the criteria for buying a stock. With rare exception, it should also include formulating the conditions for selling based on the stock's valuation. Because small-cap companies often have greater growth prospects than blue-chip companies, your reasons for selling a small-cap company are more apt to change
Stock Short Interest: Over the last few weeks, the short interest has gone up and now stands at 11% [8.38 million shares] of the float [63.19 million shares]. All in all, at the current low average volume per day, it will take about 10 days to cover… about 8.38 million shares short… trading 895,000 shares per day average over the last 3 months.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=MVIS&selected=MVIS
Stock Trading Range: For a period of four weeks [from September 21 to October 22] the stock traded over $5 in a very tight range of “$5.02 to $5.52”. We have seen some very volatile days on Wall Street in the last 10 days [from October 24 to November 4]… and the stock has come down to $3.70 and now seems to be holding at this level as a very strong support… and waiting for next announcement of news. The stock price has crossed under the 50 day moving average [at $4.50] and seems to have very strong support at $3.66 or so. This is where the stock price was before the commercial launch of SHOWwx [on September 15th] and three purchase orders in October. The reason for the stock price drop, in my opinion, is due mainly to the uncertainty associated with quantities of green lasers that are essential to fulfilling the three initial purchase orders.
Here’s the stock chart…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
However, if you look at the P&F [point and figure] chart the stock is still in the uptrend channel with a “bullish price” of $8.31.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=MVIS,P&listNum=
Stock Holding: Institutions hold about 14.40% and the Insiders hold over 16.93% of the outstanding stock [63.19 million float on a fully diluted basis]. This means that over 68.67% of the float is held by retail investors. This is a very wide distribution of MVIS stock… a good sign for PPS support [during lean times] and PPS momentum [during good times] when institutions finally wake-up and come looking to take position in the MVIS stock directly… or decide to invest aggressively in small cap stocks indexed by Russell 2000/3000.
Short Term Risk [next four weeks]: Over the next four weeks [up until the announcement of the European mobile phone carrier] the stock PPS could trade in tight range of $3.65 to $3.80… but hopefully does not trade any lower than $3.37. This is the short term risk to PPS… mainly due to lack of news or release of any significant news over the next few weeks.
Mid Term Risk [next 2 Qtrs]: There is a very strong possibility that an additional OEM contract [and purchase order] and increased quantities of SHOWwx shipments will be announced on a monthly basis from hereon. In such a case, the PPS may just take-off to new highs for the year and not look back. As we know, there is more demand for Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx than the supply of green lasers and that bodes well for the mid term future… as there could be monthly announcements of OEM contracts and agreements for rest of the year 2010.
Two of the supply chain issues could be “green laser cost” and “green laser volume production”. Feasibility and product development of the various PicoP display engine components is not an issue. The issue [if any] could be with the price and mass production of green lasers from Corning. The supply chain issue is real and has affected the full blown end of summer 2009 commercial product launch. The delay in large quantity shipments, however, may be short and you could see quick recovery in PPS… as the second green laser supplier Osram comes on board in the next few weeks.
Also, there is a strong possibility that the company may be selling some more shares to fund its short term cash flow needs beyond June 2010… in case there is cash flow short fall from sale of products and services. That’s the mid-term risk… but I will take it with a smile.
Long Term Risk [over 2 years]: If the company can fast track the volume production of PicoP display engines and SHOWwx laser projectors to a few million units a year [the good case scenario] or survives the “hostile” take-over attempt in the mid-term [precipitated as a result of major supply chain issues], there is no long term issue… because the market is huge and the company has leadership position in four (4) different product categories.
Reward: For those who understand the company’s — business model; the various products; the size [and the pull] of the captive world wide market— the rewards are phenomenal.
Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…
• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, camcorders, digital cameras, mobile TV/Projectors etc.]
• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]
• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units
• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units
• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine
• Revenue: $4 billion
• Net Profit Margin: 40%
• Net Profit: $1.6 billion
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]
• Interest Expense: $0 million
• Interest Income: $20 million
• Tax: $220million
• Depreciation: non cash and very small
• Amortization: non cash and very small
• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion
• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]
• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company
• Price Per Share: $390 per share
In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 5 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.
Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP display engines will be larger than the supply."
Here’s the link to Microvision web site…
http://www.microvision.com/
This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime (Part 1)
The cost of missing out can be greater than the cost of messing up.
“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.”
…Leonard Ravenhill
From time to time, during the course of our lives, we are granted the "opportunity of a lifetime. It's a chance that doesn't come our way very often, and usually one that would result in enormous financial benefits to us… if we can manage to get hold of it before it fades away.
While it's true that certain opportunities only occur "once in a lifetime," that doesn't mean there won't be other opportunities coming our way. However, when you look closely enough, most opportunities are literally "once in a lifetime" chances – meaning; each opportunity has its own uniqueness, benefits, life cycle and level of results. Rarely are we presented with the same exact opportunity twice in a row. They are all special and important in their own ways. Some of them are BIG opportunities that will propel us directly to our desired outcome in one great leap, while others are smaller and might move us forward just a tiny bit.
Microvision stock [NASDAQ: MVIS] is an investment that represents the opportunity of a lifetime… in our lifetime. And it is a BIG opportunity that can propel us to our financial goals in one great leap within our active lifetime… like in the next 4 to 5 years.
Here are FIVE REASONS not to let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…
REASON #1
The continued and almost parabolic rise from the recent lows [made in March] in stocks like Microvision [MVIS] and major indices is almost a case study as to why it pays to stay invested. For those investors who got shaken out by the almost unrelenting selling witnessed in November [last year] and in March [this year], the move up since has been equally as distressing… for those who remained short or stayed on the sidelines.
In case of Microvision, while a bounce from the lows of $0.77 cents was widely expected, the fact that it has been sustained for so long [currently trading at $5.48] is interesting. Since the beginning of March, the major indices have moved up by over 60% [and MVIS has moved up over 600%], truly showcasing the Market in its most manic state. The 600% move up in MVIS is not only due to overall improvement in the general Market, but also due to the commercial release, by Microvision, of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx on September 15th, 2009.
After three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, another announcement made [on 10/8/2009] of a major OEM purchase order comes as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…
“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the two purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs represent as …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.
• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.
• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.
• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments.
• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 115 issued patents and with many more on file.
• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser based PicoP projectors as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.
• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.
• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.
• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.
We can quibble about any one of the above and despair that there are no solid numbers as yet. However, the announcement of big name [names yet to be disclosed] Global consumer electronic distributors and OEMs signing on the dotted line validates all of the above that is important to the financial viability of Microvision as a company… as well as a financial investment opportunity of a life time for us.
Some of you may argue that…
“… with the MVIS stock up more than 600% already in the last six months, may be its time for the stock to take a breather and come down a bit.”
It is possible, but I won’t count on that for the following reasons…
• Currently, there is over 10% [7.65 million shares] short interest in Microvision. And with MVIS stock rising almost daily, the short sellers are now gritting their teeth by day and grinding them at night as nothing seems effective to prompt a sell-off. Neither poor corporate profitability nor tempered economic forecasts have been able to do the trick. In fact, the continued move up by the market [and MVIS] has been among the most parabolic in its recorded history.
• There is an overwhelming expectation for some kind of a pullback by many market [and MVIS] participants. However, when it will occur and to what degree is still a matter of conjecture. It appears that the psychology of the market seems to be shifting. No longer does it appear that investors are looking down at the bottom. Instead, they are, it appears, to be looking up at the rays of sunlight.
• While no real indication as to which direction the market is going in the short-term, the mid to long-term thesis is that the current financial crisis is almost over and the market [and MVIS stock] will be in a better and stronger position 36 to 48 months from now. Here’s an update on he overall health of the market…
• Demand for Microvision's PicoP display engines is five times the number of green lasers that are currently available from Corning… according to Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, at the last conference call in May 2009. Osram is coming on board with more production quantities of green laser becoming available in the fourth quarter 2009. Hopefully, that will ease-up some green laser supply issues facing Microvision at the present time.
• Corning and Osram [the two green laser supply chain partners] are improving the production quantities, the laser light technology, performance and price on a monthly basis. The next generation of green laser [Corning GL-2000] and Microvision's high definition PicoP display engine will bear this out.
• We could hear additional OEM purchase orders on a monthly basis as more and more green lasers become available from the two supply chain partners… Corning and Osram.
The availability and quality of green lasers will be crucial not only to the viability of Microvision’s PicoP display technology… but also to its financial success as a growth company. The most recent news about green lasers only reinforces my belief that Microvision will be a huge financial success…
Japan's QD Laser has developed a compact green laser that could energize the market for high-definition micro projectors.
Martyn Williams, IDG News Service
Saturday, October 10, 2009 06:00 PM PDT
Here’s the link to the news article…
http://www.pcworld.com/article/173455/green_laser_developed_for_microprojectors.html
What’s so significant about this news is the statement…
“QD Laser is planning mass production next year and the laser should cost around US$10, said Mitsuru Sugawara, the company's president and CEO, during an interview at Ceatec. That will make it significantly cheaper than the only other competitor on the market, a micro green laser from Corning, according to Sugawara.”
The last point in support of my REASON #1 is…
“With all the validation of Microvision and its PicoP display technology that has taken place in the last one month, together with its portfolio of other products, patents and IP... if Microvision were to come to the Market today with an IPO, it could easily fetch $20 per share for a market valuation in excess of $1.5 billion dollars.
And that could still be on the low side considering…
“… that in 2003, MVIS stock traded for over $63 dollars at a time when it still had no PicoP projector… no PicoP display engine… no PicoP projector prototype… no PicoP customers … and had less than one third the portfolio of patents it has today.”
Stay tuned for REASON #2… as we move forward in our journey to explore “Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime”
Anant Goel
http://www.mirro7.blogpost.com/
“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.”
…Leonard Ravenhill
From time to time, during the course of our lives, we are granted the "opportunity of a lifetime. It's a chance that doesn't come our way very often, and usually one that would result in enormous financial benefits to us… if we can manage to get hold of it before it fades away.
While it's true that certain opportunities only occur "once in a lifetime," that doesn't mean there won't be other opportunities coming our way. However, when you look closely enough, most opportunities are literally "once in a lifetime" chances – meaning; each opportunity has its own uniqueness, benefits, life cycle and level of results. Rarely are we presented with the same exact opportunity twice in a row. They are all special and important in their own ways. Some of them are BIG opportunities that will propel us directly to our desired outcome in one great leap, while others are smaller and might move us forward just a tiny bit.
Microvision stock [NASDAQ: MVIS] is an investment that represents the opportunity of a lifetime… in our lifetime. And it is a BIG opportunity that can propel us to our financial goals in one great leap within our active lifetime… like in the next 4 to 5 years.
Here are FIVE REASONS not to let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…
REASON #1
The continued and almost parabolic rise from the recent lows [made in March] in stocks like Microvision [MVIS] and major indices is almost a case study as to why it pays to stay invested. For those investors who got shaken out by the almost unrelenting selling witnessed in November [last year] and in March [this year], the move up since has been equally as distressing… for those who remained short or stayed on the sidelines.
In case of Microvision, while a bounce from the lows of $0.77 cents was widely expected, the fact that it has been sustained for so long [currently trading at $5.48] is interesting. Since the beginning of March, the major indices have moved up by over 60% [and MVIS has moved up over 600%], truly showcasing the Market in its most manic state. The 600% move up in MVIS is not only due to overall improvement in the general Market, but also due to the commercial release, by Microvision, of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx on September 15th, 2009.
After three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, another announcement made [on 10/8/2009] of a major OEM purchase order comes as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…
“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the two purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs represent as …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.
• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.
• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.
• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments.
• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 115 issued patents and with many more on file.
• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser based PicoP projectors as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.
• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.
• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.
• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.
We can quibble about any one of the above and despair that there are no solid numbers as yet. However, the announcement of big name [names yet to be disclosed] Global consumer electronic distributors and OEMs signing on the dotted line validates all of the above that is important to the financial viability of Microvision as a company… as well as a financial investment opportunity of a life time for us.
Some of you may argue that…
“… with the MVIS stock up more than 600% already in the last six months, may be its time for the stock to take a breather and come down a bit.”
It is possible, but I won’t count on that for the following reasons…
• Currently, there is over 10% [7.65 million shares] short interest in Microvision. And with MVIS stock rising almost daily, the short sellers are now gritting their teeth by day and grinding them at night as nothing seems effective to prompt a sell-off. Neither poor corporate profitability nor tempered economic forecasts have been able to do the trick. In fact, the continued move up by the market [and MVIS] has been among the most parabolic in its recorded history.
• There is an overwhelming expectation for some kind of a pullback by many market [and MVIS] participants. However, when it will occur and to what degree is still a matter of conjecture. It appears that the psychology of the market seems to be shifting. No longer does it appear that investors are looking down at the bottom. Instead, they are, it appears, to be looking up at the rays of sunlight.
• While no real indication as to which direction the market is going in the short-term, the mid to long-term thesis is that the current financial crisis is almost over and the market [and MVIS stock] will be in a better and stronger position 36 to 48 months from now. Here’s an update on he overall health of the market…
o A clear business recovery is gaining momentum.• After the release on September 15th, the world’s first PicoP projector by Microvision is gaining huge investment community interest and also some raving reviews. As the times goes on, I expect a growing world wide awareness of: Microvision name, its PicoP display technology and the financial investment opportunity it represents for many years to come. It took Intel 20 odd years to gain ubiquitous status with its famous “Intel Inside” slogan. It may take Microvision half as long with its “Image by PicoP” slogan. We just have to wait and see.
o The sideline money is flowing back into the market—and in a big way.
o Jobless claims are declining, and the massive layoffs the press has been predicting are not materializing.
o Manufacturing is expanding and triggering a boost in consumer confidence.
o The housing market is clearly recovering, too. Just look at how the S&P’s Homebuilding Index has risen by more than 30% percent this year.
o Only 16% of the Fed stimulus money has been spent to date. When the rest of that money begins to flow, the big earnings moves we’ve seen to date will look like a drop in the bucket… as more and more companies collect their stimulus funds and report even higher earnings.
• Demand for Microvision's PicoP display engines is five times the number of green lasers that are currently available from Corning… according to Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, at the last conference call in May 2009. Osram is coming on board with more production quantities of green laser becoming available in the fourth quarter 2009. Hopefully, that will ease-up some green laser supply issues facing Microvision at the present time.
• Corning and Osram [the two green laser supply chain partners] are improving the production quantities, the laser light technology, performance and price on a monthly basis. The next generation of green laser [Corning GL-2000] and Microvision's high definition PicoP display engine will bear this out.
• We could hear additional OEM purchase orders on a monthly basis as more and more green lasers become available from the two supply chain partners… Corning and Osram.
The availability and quality of green lasers will be crucial not only to the viability of Microvision’s PicoP display technology… but also to its financial success as a growth company. The most recent news about green lasers only reinforces my belief that Microvision will be a huge financial success…
Japan's QD Laser has developed a compact green laser that could energize the market for high-definition micro projectors.
Martyn Williams, IDG News Service
Saturday, October 10, 2009 06:00 PM PDT
Here’s the link to the news article…
http://www.pcworld.com/article/173455/green_laser_developed_for_microprojectors.html
What’s so significant about this news is the statement…
“QD Laser is planning mass production next year and the laser should cost around US$10, said Mitsuru Sugawara, the company's president and CEO, during an interview at Ceatec. That will make it significantly cheaper than the only other competitor on the market, a micro green laser from Corning, according to Sugawara.”
The last point in support of my REASON #1 is…
“With all the validation of Microvision and its PicoP display technology that has taken place in the last one month, together with its portfolio of other products, patents and IP... if Microvision were to come to the Market today with an IPO, it could easily fetch $20 per share for a market valuation in excess of $1.5 billion dollars.
And that could still be on the low side considering…
“… that in 2003, MVIS stock traded for over $63 dollars at a time when it still had no PicoP projector… no PicoP display engine… no PicoP projector prototype… no PicoP customers … and had less than one third the portfolio of patents it has today.”
Stay tuned for REASON #2… as we move forward in our journey to explore “Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime”
Anant Goel
http://www.mirro7.blogpost.com/
Monday, October 5, 2009
Microvision Announces Commercial Launch of SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector
That’s the heading of the Press Release from this morning.
Here’s the link…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20091004005084&newsLang=en
The content of this PR is the same as the one released on September 15th… except for the following…
• Today’s PR is from…
Obviously, there is the possibility of several key announcements and that a few commercial SHOWwx will be on demo… the same commercial units that the Asian consumers can expect to buy.
I have reasons to believe that there [may] be several demos’ of embedded PicoP display engines… in mobile devices like laptops and DVD players.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Here’s the link…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20091004005084&newsLang=en
The content of this PR is the same as the one released on September 15th… except for the following…
• Today’s PR is from…
CEATEC JAPAN 2009• The following statement is added to the bottom of the PR…
Booth #2-8
"The company will showcase its latest products and solutions at CEATEC JAPAN 2009, Makuhari Messe, Chiba, Japan, October 6-10, 2009. (Booth Number: 2-8)"• The contact information is different…
Microvision, Inc.The purpose of today’s PR, in my opinion, is to create the buzz, for free, before the commencement of the CEATEC JAPAN 2009 show.
Matt Nichols, 425.882.6657 (USA)
Director of Communications
or
Shigeru Shinzawa, +81-3-6717-4290 (Japan)
sshinzawa@microvision.com
Obviously, there is the possibility of several key announcements and that a few commercial SHOWwx will be on demo… the same commercial units that the Asian consumers can expect to buy.
I have reasons to believe that there [may] be several demos’ of embedded PicoP display engines… in mobile devices like laptops and DVD players.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)