Showing posts with label Growth Stock. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Growth Stock. Show all posts

Friday, March 27, 2015

Technology and Social Paradigm Shift ─ Laser Pico Projection to Change the Way We View our World



There is paradigm shift coming and the pico projector market is estimated to reach $9.32 billion by 2020; growing at a CAGR of 39.82% from 2014 to 2020.

[Note: Think of a Paradigm Shift as a change from one way of thinking to another. It's a revolution, a transformation, a sort of metamorphosis. It just does not happen, but rather it is driven by agents of change.]

I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection "standalone" space... like 3M with LcoS, TI with DLP, and MicroVision with Laser Beam Scanning technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, MicroVision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” or “standalone” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

MicroVision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…

When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.

Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?

When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.

What’s MicroVision “Killer App”?

It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”.  What makes MicroVision’s PicoP display engine technology as "Killer App" in simple terms?

1.  Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.

2.  Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.

3.  Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.

4.  Large projected images [up to 250”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.

5.  High Definition 720P images at 32 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 50 lumen or more brightness in 2015.

6.  Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology has matured and economies of scale are achieved in 2015.  For example, synthetic green lasers [SGLs] were priced at around $120 each… whereas the diode green lasers [with higher light energy output and efficiency] are currently priced at less than $5 in quantities.

7.  Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next. 

8.  Social Change from the way we share information now to the way it will be shared in the future.

The PicoP display engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to MicroVision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PicoP display engine to the rest of MicroVision product line of applications that are currently under development.

Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisers compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!

Well, MicroVision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your MicroVision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.

But that will change in the next 2 Qtrs: when the earnings report will show $8 million in licensing fee and $14.5 million in proprietary components order [and future royalties] from SONY… and increasing sales of technology development and licensing from 10 or so Consumer Electronics giants from US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.

When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in MicroVision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 3 to 5 years.

Is MicroVision ready for prime time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

In three to five years from now in 2017, the stock could easily trade in the $100 to $400 range. 

No matter how you slice-it or dice-it, MicroVision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

MicroVision’s PicoP display engine could also lead the “standalone” rat pack [with its Celluon PicoAir projector for example] because of the following...

• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) will make the MicroVision's PicoP projector at par with competition... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

• “A wide angle view means that MicroVision PicoP projector can show a wider screen at closer distant!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With MicroVision PicoP projector you get…

“A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus”.

• Laser based PicoP projectors will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector [with DLP or LcoS] every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

• MicroVision PicoP projector has better image quality [at 80,000 to 1 contrast ratio] and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using.  The use of diffused light source, like LEDs or lamps, causes the "torch light" effect... meaning the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

• MicroVision’s PicoP projectors can go from 12inch to 250inch image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what MicroVision is offering. We will soon find out what [else] MicroVision has to offer when Celluon PicoAir [currently at 32 lumen] comes out with 50 lumen and higher brightness.

Celluon’s PicoAir [using MicroVision PicoP display engine] was launched this January and is currently shipping… and is getting raving reviews. Competition, like 3M and TI, have their LED based Pico projectors on the market for over four years… but they are not selling too well… and their prices keep coming down almost every month.

According to the new market research report "Pico Projector Market - Forecasts to 2020", the pico projector market is estimated to reach $9.32 billion by 2020; growing at a CAGR of 39.82% from 2014 to 2020.

However, the laser based PicoP projector market is expected to grow at must faster rate CAGR of 56.95% and take-off in 2014.

Here’s an excerpt from the independent study…

“The technology market entails three major types including Digital Light Processing (DLP), Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCOS), and Laser Beam Steering (LBS). Currently, the majority of pico projectors are being developed based on DLP technology, however it has been estimated that in future, pico projectors would be mostly based on laser technology. DLP accounted for a market share of 56.90% in 2014 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.53% between 2014 and 2020. Laser Beam Steering (LBS) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 56.95% between 2014 and 2020.”

Competition is good and will help with faster adoption of the Pico projector by the billion plus unit market. To be a huge [financial] success, MicroVision needs only a small percentage of the overall market that finally adopts the technology.

My money is “still” on MicroVision. However, I am keeping an eye on the competition… including TI, 3M and Syndiant.

For an in-depth report on “Opportunity of a Lifetime”, please click here…


Monday, June 24, 2013

Laser Pico Projectors Will Make TV Obsolete


Laser PicoP technology could blow away the television industry as we know it!

Why pay for a big 60 inch TV when you can buy a 50+ lumen HD PicoP projector for one third the price and get 720p [1920 X 720p] at 16:9 wide screen resolution… and take it with you anywhere you go with an Internet connection?

Could the big TV companies put a kibosh on this PicoP technology?  I’ve been following this technology for many years and up until recently no body believed that PicoP technology could pose such a threat leading to the demise of energy guzzling [65watt] LED TV. In countries where energy is a precious commodity, countries like India and China, PicoP projectors [at 5watt] could see faster and massive adoption.

Think about it!!!

A laser PicoP projector at HD 720p resolution and with built-in WiFi connection, would be at less than 5 watts. And you could project 60 inch HD images from less than 5 feet away in a small Asian living room. The LED based 60 inch TV would consume over 65 watts... and produce so much wasted heat in hot and humid countries like India and China. Did you know the biggest consumer of electricity is for operating the billion or so TVs around the world.

Large screen energy guzzling TVs are doomed. If nothing else, the HD PicoP technology would definitely not help their cause.  Just like the iPad and tablet is killing PCs; MicroVision’s HD PicoP technology is truly disruptive. Imagine in next 36 months; you could buy a smartphone with built-in HD PicoP projector shooting 1080p at 50+ laser lumen. That would definitely hurt TV sales; but they [TV manufacturers] can not stop this progress. Too many large players like SONY and SAMSUNG want this technology to grow and flourish. The market pull is enormous. Once we get clear guidance for mass produced Diode Green Lasers, it will be a proverbial rocket ride after that... for companies like MicroVision.

So, did I buy a PicoPro from Celluon and got rid of my 42" HD LED TV. 

The answer is YES and NO!

Yes, I bought the PicoPro from Celluon but did not get rid of my 42" LED TV... not yet anyway!

I’m thinking, for example, of buying another one when the 50+ lumen 1080p PicoP projectors come out… and use it in the bedroom for occasional viewing on the ceiling.  I could easily watch a show on my wall or ceiling and take it anywhere I want and for one third the price of 60 inch LED TV.

So it’s obvious to me that TV sales stand to lose a substantial amount over the next few years─ when the PicoP projectors at 50+ lumen and 1080p resolution come out… especially when the sales in colleges and universities start to pick-up momentum.

At the very least; HD PicoP projectors at 50+ lumen will fill-in the spot for the 2nd and 3rd TV sets in affluent homes.

Anant Goel
Producer CEO - RKNet Studios
www.LeRumba.com

 

Saturday, February 12, 2011

MicroVision: Schedules Conference Call to Discuss 2011 Strategy and Preliminary 2010 Results

Press Release
Source: MicroVision, Inc.
On Friday February 11, 2011, 8:00 am EST

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today announced it will host a conference call to discuss its 2011 business strategy and preliminary financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2010 on Tuesday, February 15, 2011 at 8:30 a.m. ET / 5:30 a.m. PT.
continues...
*****
Here's the link...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MicroVision-Schedules-bw-2223156935.html?x=0&.v=1

It comes as a surprise that 4th Qtr earnings conference call is being held on February 15th at 5:30am PST. It is much earlier than the usual first week of March and always after the market close at 4:30pm EST. Some folks would speculate; and take this as a sign of something good... and for a change, they may just be right.

It is quite apparent that the 5:30am PST conference call [at 8:30am EST] is being intentionally organized to conclude before the US markets open at 9:30am EST... while it is still early pm in the Kingdom of Japan; ̶the home of Pioneer Corporation. In my opinion, the decision to hold the CC this early in the morning; is not only to accommodate what Pioneer Corp may have to say... but also to influence the MVIS stock activity in the US financial markets.

Make sure to pull-up your shorts... because there is news on the tab that could impact your financial health in the “short run”.

With the conference call timing issue out of the way, let's now focus on the subject of the CC...

“... to discuss 2011 strategy” as it says in the headline to the Press Release.

I expect most of the CC time being spent here on the subject of 2011 strategy...

I expect Microvision and Pioneer Corp [to be present in some way or form] and lay the foundation for a total makeover and a fresh start for Microvision... with its CEO “in tow” to pitch the financial orgy of last four years as just a bad dream.

In the name of  “... 2011 strategy”, I expect to hear about major changes announced [which could be an on-going process] in all business aspects of Microvision... with Pioneer's finger prints, influence, and involvement being quite visible.

Here's business aspects that are expected to be discussed and significantly influenced , hopefully for the better, in my opinion...

* More visibility to Pioneer relationship and agreement
* New organizational structure
* Staffing levels and re-assignments
* Cost cutting [and cost sharing] measures
* Current and new funding source(s) and structure
* Diode Green Laser program and the role of SHG green laser
* Inventory write-downs and losses
* Significant drop in cost of "bill of materials" for SHOWwx line 
* Ramp-down SHOWwx production to parallel inventories 
* HEMP OEM coming out party
* New products in the pipe line with garbled time-lines as usual

We should see more confidence in CEO Tokman's voice after years of babbling and garbled communications. It takes gumption [and some charisma] to let go the “VP of Sales, Marketing and Business Development”... and still manage to survive as the CEO of the company.

Microvision will survive; and will do just fine under the virtual “halo” of big brother Pioneer Corporation of Japan.

Anant Goel

Monday, December 6, 2010

Microvision: What’s New in Laser Land?

The Red-Green-Blue (RGB) laser light sourcing has, for a long time, been one of the blocking factors for MEMS-based pico-projector development.

Technical challenges have been overcome by some laser manufacturers [like Osram for one example] that are now providing the three basic colors. It is expected that these lasers will be mass-produced in a single bar─ that is a platform integrating the three laser sources in one instead of three individual lasers, by early 2011.

Single bar RGB laser light source for MEMS pico projectors is expected to be much more cost effective and scalable to mass production. Not only that, there are other benefits of reduced physical size, lower energy consumption and faster modulation rates.

Laser pico projector pricing is then strongly related not only to the cost of RGB laser light source and production volumes but also to initial technology choices, the business model and product strategy.

Anant Goel

Monday, November 1, 2010

Microvision: Hyper Growth in 2011

Rapid Development in Native [Diode] Green Laser Technology Sets PicoP™ Projector into Hyper Growth for Year 2011

In the emerging market for pico-projectors, as well as, other display techniques such as head-mounted display (HMD) or head-up display (HUD), the ideal light source would be a laser due to its capability to deliver highly saturated colors in the widest possible gamut.

Additional desirable features include focus-free operation, improvement in wall-plug efficiency─ reducing power consumption for battery operation, lower cost and high production scalability. The great advantage of laser projectors is a consistently sharp, always-in-focus, true-color, high-contrast image irrespective of the projection distance and projection surface

As we all know too well, the availability and cost of green lasers, both diode and SHG, has held back the progress in ramping-up production of laser based PicoP projectors.

However, there are three pieces of news, two from this morning and one from a year ago, that put the commercialization of laser based PicoP projectors from Microvision on steroids… for hyper growth in the year 2011.

First the old news from August 2009…

“Success in the laboratory: direct emitting green InGaN laser with 50 mW

OSRAM has set a new milestone for mobile laser projection

OSRAM Opto Semiconductors has achieved a major breakthrough in the laboratory with its direct emitting green indium-gallium-nitride laser. It already achieves an optical output of 50 mW and emits light in true green with a wavelength of 515 nm. Compared with semiconductor lasers based on current technology that operate with frequency doubling, direct emitting green lasers are more compact, offer greater temperature stability, are easier to control and have higher modulation capability.”

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Here’s the link to the Osram web site…

http://www.osram.com/osram_com/News/Trade_Press/LED_OptoSemiconductor/2009/090813_PM_R%26D_gruenerLaser_en.html

Over the last one year there have been several articles and white papers published indicating rapid improvement in the development of diode green lasers getting out of the lab approaching commercialization.

Today’s news from Corning confirms that…

Press Release
Source: Corning Incorporated
Monday November 1, 2010, 7:00 am EDT

CORNING, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW - News) today announced its results for the third quarter of 2010.

In the press release Corning stated…

“In other matters, Corning has decided to discontinue its development and commercialization of synthetic green lasers. Given the rapid development of native green technology, the company concluded that the market for synthetic green lasers is limited.”

*****
Here’s the link to the press release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Corning-Announced-bw-2268286162.html?x=0&.v=1

This piece of news further confirms that rapid progress has been made with diode green lasers. And Osram, for example, has overcome the previous limits of the InGaN material system. At the pre-development stage─ in August 2009, the company succeeded in manufacturing the first direct emitting green laser diode from the InGaN (indium-gallium-nitride) material system with a high optical output. The diode emits a “true green”, which is defined by the spectral range of 515 to 535 nm. In this range, efficient high-quality semiconductor lasers have been commercially available only as frequency-doubled versions. In the medium term, however, direct emitting green lasers could replace frequency-doubled lasers for numerous applications. They are easier to control, and also offer greater temperature stability, a smaller form factor and higher modulation capability at several 100 MHz.

Now we come to the last piece of the news that confirms the rapid development of diode green lasers… and that puts the commercialization of laser based PicoP projectors from Microvision on steroids for hyper growth in the year 2011.

Here we go…

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
Monday November 1, 2010, 7:00 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today announced it has successfully integrated the first “direct green” laser samples from two leading manufacturers into pico projector benchtop prototypes. This achievement represents an important first step toward the commercialization of PicoP® display engines using direct green lasers. The PicoP display engine utilizing a direct green laser is expected to offer significant commercial advantages in price, size, power, and performance.

“We are very pleased with the performance of these early direct green laser prototypes,” commented Sid Madhavan, Microvision vice president, R&D and Applications. “These encouraging results give us confidence that direct green laser diodes will be capable of meeting the performance requirements for integration into our PicoP display platform.”

Simplicity leads to lower costs
Microvision’s current pico projection engine uses red and blue laser diodes and a frequency-doubled “synthetic” green laser to create a full color image. Synthetic green lasers are infrared lasers that are manipulated to reduce their wavelength to produce a green light. This conversion process creates a complex system of multiple components held to tight tolerances making manufacturing more challenging.

Direct green lasers are capable of producing green light natively, greatly simplifying laser design and manufacturing processes. Direct green lasers are expected to be manufactured in a manner similar to red and blue lasers available today, facilitating lower cost and rapid scalability to commercial quantities. The combination of smaller size, lower power, and lower cost make direct green lasers an attractive alternative to synthetic green lasers for Microvision’s mobile display solutions.

Historically, availability of synthetic green lasers has been constrained due to their complexity and the existence of only two manufacturers. Today, there are at least five companies worldwide that have announced they are developing direct green lasers for late 2011 to mid 2012 commercial introduction. Industry researcher Yole Development forecasts that the direct green laser market size will reach about $500 million by 2016 and should represent more than 45 million devices.

*****
Here’s the link to the press release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Integrates-First-bw-2659567055.html?x=0&.v=1

Some would say that this press release from Microvision is damage control in view of Corning’s decision to discontinue its development and commercialization of synthetic green lasers.

But, I disagree… because of two simple reasons:

First: Corning has decided to discontinue development and commercialization of synthetic green lasers… but that doesn’t mean they will stop production of what’s on order and contracted with Microvision.

Second: Currently, SHG green laser diodes are available on the market from Corning, Osram and QD Laser… and each have their own proprietary solutions. Now if you take Corning out of the equation… you still have two other suppliers of SHG green lasers in the interim period from now to mid 2011.

The bottom line is…

“Next year, the commercialization of laser based PicoP projectors from Microvision gets into fast lane for hyper growth in the year 2011.”

We just have to wait and see how things unfold from here?

Anant Goel

Friday, August 27, 2010

Microvision: Investors Are Just Frustrated

Definition of “Frustration”…

• The act of frustrating or an instance of being frustrated
• The state of being frustrated
• Something that serves to frustrate

Let's add one more definition to the word frustration...

“waiting for definitive plans and answers to simple question from Microvision while being told that the management will disclose them soon by the next CC… or some other future event that has come and gone by the way side over the last 4 years.”

How dare we worry about where our investment dollars are going when it's such a small part of the big picture of: “the holly grail of embedded PicoP projectors in the billion unit mobile world?” What frustrates us now is another article about the Green Laser price and availability. It sounded like yet another warning, by those in the industry, why a laser based PicoP will fail because of Green Laser pricing issues. I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the issue, but can somebody please throw some light on this 4 year old issue of GL availability, pricing and stability issues as they affect the profit margins and eventual success of laser based PicoP projectors.

Here’re some more thoughts on frustration…

  • Having the wool pulled over our eyes is frustrating;
  • Lack of communications in spoken English is frustrating;
  • Waiting for straight answers is frustrating;
  • Having legitimate concerns brushed aside is frustrating;
  • Being told to take the pain and ignore the small stuff is frustrating;
  • Watching the market price of MVIS drift lower and lower is frustrating, too.
There is enough dry powder on the sidelines to send this market [and MVIS stock price] significantly higher, even into the plus column for the year. But, would-be buyers continue to be stymied as each day brings more questions rather than answers and we keep hearing how off base our concerns are. While panic has become the permanent aroma that greets investors each day, I sense frustration could be moving the market more than any other feeling these days, and certainly over the last few days.

I'm getting emails and phone calls and I know that many folks just want to throw in the towel out of frustration and a lack of confidence. Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be just fine and at the end of the day [in mid 2011] Microvision investor will come out whole.

If you are wondering “why mid 2011”…

Here’s what I have finally figured out…

• Currently, the quantities of synthetic green lasers and the ASICs are too small─ like 5,000 to 10,000 units per month, and the cost is relatively too expensive… thus the negative profit margins. The key word is “relatively”… meaning product cost [in such small quantities] is more than the transfer price that can be charged to the OEMs at a suggested retail price of $549.

• To put it another way; if the retail price was increased to $649 and the transfer price charged to OEMs also raised by say $60… than the relative cost of product─ at such small quantities, may NOT be, relatively speaking, too expensive… thus the potential for positive profit margins.

However, the recent drop of $100 in the retail price of SHOWwx [from $549 to $449] mucks the waters yet again and that is frustrating. Does this mean that the price of synthetic green lasers has come down significantly to a point where Microvision can charge less for SHOWwx and still make some profit? Well, that is one thought… as in one side of the coin so to speak.

The other side of the coin could be; that Microvision needs to clear old stock at a loss in anticipation of second generation PDEs that are expected to be cheaper, smaller, more energy efficient and with higher 15- lumen brightness and 720P HD resolution.

We don’t know for sure one way or the other… and that is frustrating.

The current debate between synthetic green lasers versus the diode [direct] green lasers got so confusing at the 2nd Qtr earnings CC that Microvision CEO responded with a Blog post at The Displayground to clear-up the matter.

Here’s the link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1761#comments

Green Laser Diodes Are On the Way, In the Meantime If Done Right Synthetic Green Lasers Have an Embedded Play

What I find very interesting is the comment about…

“We have already begun to see availability of the first generation synthetic lasers increase. The next generation synthetic green lasers are expected to be more efficient and less expensive than their first generation cousins. We also anticipate that the direct green lasers targeted for introduction in the second half of next year may not reach desired performance and cost targets immediately. For these reasons, we believe that synthetic lasers could continue to remain a competitive alternative to direct green lasers for at least the first 4-5 years after diodes are introduced.”

From the CEO comments about synthetic lasers, it is now clear that they have 4-5 years as the economic life cycle… before the diode green laser mature and become cost competitive. Considering the potential volume sales of laser based pico projectors over the next 5 years, which could easily run into 200-300 million units, there’s enough incentive for the synthetic green laser manufactures to ramp-up production with corresponding drop in prices.

I see two opportunities for cost reduction, and a very strong possibility of profitable margins, in the near future…

• Next generation green lasers and ASICs should be coming out in the next three or four months and they are more efficient and less expensive… and that bodes well for positive margins.

• A significantly large order from an OEM, in the 50,000 to 100,000 units per month range, will not only motivate the synthetic Green Laser suppliers, Corning and Osram, to crank-up the production lines… but it will also help reach the critical volume in terms of quantities that would result in some dramatic price drop.

With next generation synthetic Green Laser supply continuing to improve over the rest of year 2010, it is just the matter of time that a visionary company like Apple will come waltzing down the aisle to embed Microvision’s PDEs in their smartphones, iPads or iPods etc. If it is not Apple or NetFlix initially, it will be someone else… you can bet on that.

It may not be quite apparent to the naked eye; but with a little diligence the negative profit margins issue is just a short term anomaly that should correct itself in the next three to four months.

In the meantime, we are just frustrated!

Anant Goel

Microvision: Announces Second Quarter 2010 Results

Press Release
August 05, 2010
04:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time

Quarterly Revenue Grows to $2.1 Million and Backlog to $20.1 Million

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported its operating and financial results for the second quarter of 2010.

Operating Results
“I’m pleased to report that our ongoing investment to improve our production and supply chain capabilities resulted in a more stable and predictable flow of finished product in the second quarter,” stated Alexander Tokman, President and CEO. “We continue to see an increase in our green laser supply and smooth conversion of raw materials into finished goods. This strengthening of capacity will become increasingly important in the second half of 2010 as we plan to deliver larger volumes of PicoP®-based products to our customers to meet their strong demand.

“Our backlog grew to a record $20.1 million and includes a $3.4 million follow-on order from our initial OEM display engine customer. The demand for our PicoP-based products remains strong from both existing and new customers who are excited about the unique capabilities of our PicoP projection solution. In connection with our capacity increase during the second quarter, we have increased our global distribution points and continue to qualify additional distribution partners. Customer response to the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector has been very positive.

“Our future success will depend on our ability to anticipate consumer needs and rapidly innovate to bring new products to market leveraging the unique capabilities of our PicoP technology. With this in mind, we recently unveiled a 15-lumen, 720p HD-ready pico projector prototype. We have received a very enthusiastic response to the high resolution, brighter images from this prototype and believe that advancing our PicoP technology platform will continue to position us as a premier provider of customer-focused projection solutions,” concluded Mr. Tokman.

Financial Results
The following financial results are for the three and six months ended June 30, 2010, respectively, compared to the same period one year earlier.

Revenue was $2.1 million compared to $987,000 for the second quarter and $2.8 million, compared to $1.9 million for the first half. The company’s quarterly revenue grew from the first quarter of 2010 and year-over-year as higher volumes of PicoP-based products were shipped to customers.

Backlog was $20.1 million at June 30, 2010 compared to $854,000 at June 30, 2009. The backlog is composed almost exclusively of orders for the company’s PicoP embedded engine and its SHOWWX laser pico projector.

Operating loss was $11.1 million compared to $9.5 million for the quarter, and $20.6 million compared to $18.6 million for the first half. The increased operating loss was due to higher operating costs attributable to commercialization of the SHOWWX product.

Net loss for the quarter was $11.1 million, or $0.12 per share compared to $10.4 million, or $0.15 per share. Net loss for the six months was $20.2 million, or $0.23 per share compared to $19.3 million, or $0.28 per share.

Net cash used in operating activities for the six months was $22.3 million, compared to $16.3 million. The increase was attributable to a higher net loss and an increase in working capital requirements. The increase in working capital requirements reflected a combination of increased inventory of raw materials and subassemblies with long lead times as the company prepares to ship higher product volumes in the second half of the year to meet customer delivery requirements, and a higher accounts receivable balance due to the timing of product shipments during the quarter.

The company ended the quarter with $22.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and investment securities.

Management will discuss the company’s operating and financial results and current business operations in more detail during its conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT today.

Continues…
*****
Here’s the link to the full Press Release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Announces-Second-bw-2632688220.html?x=0&.v=1

Here’re some observations from the earnings report and the subsequent CC later in the evening…

Operating Results Observation:
• Improved production and supply chain capabilities resulted in a more stable and predictable flow of finished product in the second quarter. Return rates on the SHOWwx are now averaging 2.5%... well below the industry norms.

• Continue to see an increase in the synthetic Green Laser supply and smooth conversion of raw materials into finished goods.

• Strengthening of capacity in the second half of 2010 to meet strong customer demand.

• Backlog grew to a record $20.1 million and includes a $3.4 million follow-on order from the initial OEM for embedded PDEs customer.

• The demand for PicoP-based products remains strong from both existing and new customers.

• Capacity increase during the second quarter allowed Microvision to increase their global distribution points and they continue to qualify additional distribution partners.

• Customer response to the SHOWwx™ laser pico projector has been very positive.

• Microvision has received a very enthusiastic response to the high resolution, brighter images from the new 15-lumen, 720p HD-ready PicoP prototype.

The high end media product is expected to be released for the 2010 Christmas holiday shopping season and the follow-up order form this customer sort of confirms what CEO Tokman had said at the 1st Qtr CC.

• It appears Microvision sold about 5,000 SHOWwx… to arrive at the $2 million in product sales revenue.

• Green Laser Diodes are on the way. In the meantime, if done right, the synthetic Green Lasers have an embedded play… for the next 4-5 years. Here’s what CEO Tokman said in The Displayground Blog post…

“We have already begun to see availability of the first generation synthetic lasers increase. The next generation synthetic green lasers are expected to be more efficient and less expensive than their first generation cousins. We also anticipate that the direct green lasers targeted for introduction in the second half of next year may not reach desired performance and cost targets immediately. For these reasons, we believe that synthetic lasers could continue to remain a competitive alternative to direct green lasers for at least the first 4-5 years after diodes are introduced.”

• If a respectable customer places a large order, Microvision would certainly discuss with the synthetic Green Laser suppliers the possibility of increasing production.

Here’s my take on this subject…

Corning and Osram have a limited manufacturing capacity that’s capable of handling the currently forecasted product introduction volumes. However, with sufficient investment, they could expand the manufacturing capacity. This would represent up front capital cost and Microvision can't do it by itself.

Let me put it bluntly…

Assuming "Sony or Apple" places an order for 1,000,000 units spread over a year and deliverable starting say mid 2011… then Corning and Osram could invest into expanding their synthetic GL manufacturing capacity and provide the necessary product. The reason Tokman indicated a "respectable customer" is because they would be the ones to deal with the GL suppliers and guarantee the payment for this capacity increase. Having "Sony or Apple" as a customer pretty much guarantees that the order will not be cancelled just for the fun of it. I'm sure they already know the price point where it is worth upgrading manufacturing capacity… either for a large order from a "respectable customer" or a lot of small orders where the expected rate of default would still ensure a profit for the GL manufacturers.

• Microvision expects 5-7 green laser suppliers in 2011.

Financial Results Observation:
• Revenues for the 2nd Qtr were $2.1 million compared to $987,000 for the second quarter of 2009… and the growth on the year-over-year basis was from higher volumes of PicoP-based products that were actually shipped to customers.

For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade in March 2010, the Microvision management team was awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales.

With that in mind, and taking all the plausible scenarios into consideration, I was looking at $1,900,000 to $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010.

As I said before; anything less than $1,900,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of poor sales… that are not necessarily held back by green laser availability. Current events and management changes taking place at Microvision pointed more to this revenue number than anything higher. With product revenues for the 2nd Qtr coming-in at $2 million and the backlog increased to $20.1 million… I’m not sure what to make of it and that is frustrating.

• Backlog was $20.1 million at June 30, 2010.

• The backlog is composed almost exclusively of orders for the PicoP embedded engine and its SHOWwx laser pico projector.

• Operating loss was $11.1 million for the 2nd Qtr.

• The increased operating loss was due to higher operating costs attributable to commercialization of the SHOWwx product.

• Net loss for the quarter was $11.1 million, or $0.12 per share compared to $10.4 million, or $0.15 per share.

• The increase in net loss was attributable to a higher net loss and an increase in working capital requirements. The increase in working capital is reflected by a combination of increased inventory of raw materials and subassemblies with long lead times─ as the company prepares to ship higher product volumes in the second half of the year, and a higher accounts receivable balance─ due to the timing of product shipments during the 2nd quarter.

• From the 2nd Qtr Income Statement; the Product Revenue was $2,015,000 with Cost of Product Revenue being $3,337,000. The costs to produce accessory pico projector units during the three months ended June 30, 2010 were substantially higher than product revenue. Cost of product revenue includes the direct and allocated indirect cost of manufacturing products sold to customers. Direct costs include labor, materials and other costs incurred directly in the manufacture of these products. Indirect costs include labor and other costs associated with operating the manufacturing capabilities and capacity.

• During the three months ended June 30, 2010, cost of product revenue included a lower of cost or market adjustment of $701,000 for inventory in stock at the end of the quarter.

• The overhead cost included in the cost of product revenue consists of the costs of procuring, inspecting and storing material, and facility and depreciation costs; and is allocated to inventory, cost of product revenue, cost of contract revenue, and research and development expense based on the level of effort supporting production or research and development activities.

• The cost of product revenue as a percentage of product revenue can fluctuate significantly from period to period, depending on the product mix and volume and the level of overhead expense.

• The company ended the 2nd Qtr with $22.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and investment securities.

My main issue with this Financial Report is NOT so much about hitting the low end of Product Revenues… but it is the negative profit margins that are frustrating.

Microvision used lots of fancy words to simply explain the inventory markdowns leading to negative profit margins… meaning that every time Microvision sells a product, it takes a small loss. Since there is no corporate guidance, and investor questions on this issue were brushed aside, this “negative margins” issue has been exploited by the opportunistic and unscrupulous short traders in relentlessly driving down the price of Microvision stock over the last few weeks… and that is very frustrating.

Continues with the next post…

Microvision: Investors Are Just Frustrated

Anant Goel

Monday, May 3, 2010

Microvision: Reschedules Q1 2010 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On April 30, 2010, 8:00 am EST

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS) announced today that it has rescheduled its conference call to discuss its first quarter 2010 financial and operating results and current business operations from May 3, 2010 to May 10, 2010 at 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT.

Continues…
*****
Here’s the link…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100430005288&newsLang=en

To re-schedule an earnings CC just three days after announcing the original date with an excuse like “to provide us with additional time needed to gather and review information on our business operations” is pretty lame to say the least.

What more could you learn about your business operations that you haven’t in the last 14 years? If it is a delay due to the recently deployed ERP [or accounting] system, then say so and we, the small and institutional investors of Microvision, will understand that and wait. Some of us have been waiting for 10 years already… and 10 more days delay will not hurt so much.

But under the circumstance; what would hurt more is that the speculator, competitors, and unscrupulous stock manipulators will have a field day with MVIS stock… the evidence of which is already in place with a 10% drop since the announced CC delay.

This is not the first time that Microvision management has shown insensitivity [to put it mildly] towards the ways of Wall Street; where speculators, competitors, and the manipulators prowl the street looking for the weak, vulnerable, and the unsuspecting.

Acts like this are financially devastating; to the small, as well as, the institutional investors alike.

I speak here for the small investors [my friends and family] and at least one institutional investor that I’m engaged with.

I certainly would like to see some kind of management response to this post… that is if they publish my post at The Displayground in the first place.

Anant Goel

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Microvision: One More Purchase Order in Next Two Weeks?

First, the good news…

Microvision Completes Design of New PicoP Laser Display Engine for Mobile Embedded Applications

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday March 29, 2010, 7:29 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has completed the design and begun shipping initial evaluation samples to several prospective customers of its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine.

Continues…
*****
Here’s the link…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Completes-Design-bw-3543654902.html?x=0&.v=1

Then, the exciting news…

Microvision Receives $8.5 Million Purchase Order for New PicoP Laser Projection Display Engine

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday April 5, 2010, 7:06 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has received an $8.5 million purchase order for its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine from a consumer electronics customer. The OEM plans to embed the PicoP engine inside a high-end mobile media player for release in late 2010 and plans to announce its launch at that time.

Continues…
*****
Here’s the link…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Receives-85-bw-2670010777.html?x=0&.v=1

Now for some projections [pun intended] into the future…

There are four areas that I would like to focus on…

1. SHOWwx was just the beginning of things to come

2. Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology

3. More Purchase Order to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production.

4. Case for brighter [like 20 lumens] PicoP Display Engines for the embedded version.

SHOWwx Just the Beginning of Things to Come:
On March 24th, Microvision started selling its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx to the US market… selling them directly; from its on-line web store for a handsome profit. When you sell directly; your margins are always better because of the savings in middleman’s commission. By the next earnings conference call; we would find out for sure what sales revenue and profit margins are from on-line sale of SHOWwx.

On April 5th, Microvision confirmed the receipt of a purchase order for $8.5 million dollars for its ultra miniature PDE… and that is the part that confirms my view that SHOWwx and the $8.5 million purchase order is the just the beginning of things to come.

Here’s why…
Potential markets for laser based PicoP Display Engine technology is not only huge… but it is also a high margin market opportunity. If you were to consider the high-end Media Player market alone… the possibilities are enormous…

Low Power Front Projection Media Players for the Third World Countries:

Think about 2.5 billion people in India and China... as they represent the potential buyers of a low power front projection portable TV/Media Player that offers a large screen [40'' to 100''] high definition always in focus vivid and bright color viewing experience. Extremely low ENERGY consumption [like 10 watts or less] and portability is the key market demand factor here. Energy will become more and more scarce and expensive by leaps and bounds…whereas the portability allows for sharing of resources among friends and family.

Low Power Front Projection Media Player for the Master Bedroom:

Think about a billion bedrooms globally that could use a ceiling projector... for adding another dimension to the various ways of media consumption for information and entertainment. We have desired the bedroom viewing of television for ever, so it seems, and some of us may have installed televisions in the bedroom. However, now it is possible to add, by the millions, a low power media player with built-in PicoP projector in our bedrooms… that offers short throw ratio, wide screen, high definition, bright and vivid color, and always in focus viewing experience. Media player/projector runs on low power batteries... so no risk of electrocuting yourself. No significant heat... so you won't burn yourself. No heavy duty TV to install on the bedroom wall.

Low Power Portable Projection Media Player for Every Bedroom in the House:

All you need is one portable Media Player with built-in PicoP projector… that gets moved around from room to room when and where it’s needed. It certainly is a cheaper alternative than buying a TV for each room of the house. This portable Media Player can also be the one you pack with your bags… when you are on the go.

Market Size for Portable Media Players with built-in PicoP Projectors is huge… like in billions world-wide. The most recent order for $8.5 million from the Consumer Electronic Company is just the beginning of what’s to come and not the end.

Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology:
Some have questioned the laser PicoP as “core” technology [like CPUs from Intel] vs. “commodity” technology [like cell phone touch screen and cameras].

My take on the subject is as follows...

Picop [the generic version] is an enabling technology and therefore a commodity... no question about that.

However, laser PicoP is a core technology and that's how it is being positioned by Microvision. Picop technology from TI or 3M will not create [or capture] as large a market as laser PicoP would... due to inherent image quality and functionality only possible due to lasers being used as the light source.

Microvision laser PicoP technology will capture its fair share of the captive markets but it would go-on-further and create markets that are only possible because of laser PicoP. And that's not the commodity markets by any means. Microvision recognizes that right from the beginning; and therefore is positioning the PicoP Display Engines accordingly… by using the “Image by PicoP” insignia on every thing related to its technology.

There will be others with laser picop technology down the road... and that's why Microvision is churning out these patents by the dozens… to protect its IP turf. Also, the "Image by PicoP" is part of this marketing strategy that positions Microvision PicoP technology as a "core" and not "commodity" right from day one. From what I have seen, and there is plenty of evidence for you to see as well, Microvision is charging a premium price for its PicoP technology. Just look at SHOWwx Limited Edition sold at $999 and the Commercial Edition currently for sale at $549.

I hope you can appreciate the difference... because it’s worth billions of dollars when it is executed with knowledge, passion, and gumption.

More Purchase Orders to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production:
If there was another Purchase Order next week, would that convince you that Osram and Corning are ramping-up production of their green lasers faster than expected?

Here’s what I’m thinking…

Many OEMs have sampled the first version PEKs from last year. Now the second generation PEKs, for embedded applications, are going out and dramatically improve upon what has been tested before! I believe that the embedded version of the PicoP Display Engine is brighter [over 20 lumens], smaller and consumes less energy.

In other words, time to market for these OEMs has collapsed to a point that few more may be interested in bringing PicoP embedded digital devices to the market for the coming Christmas season. I don’t think the Japanese and Koreans are going to let APPLE hog all the discretionary income of the America consumer for the iPad.

The case for brighter PicoP Display Engine for Embedded Application…
Corning has been slow to ramp-up due to improvements in their SHG green laser technology… that is the switch from “wave guided SHG laser” to “SIDM-based adaptive optics SHG laser” technology. I remember, from a year ago in a conversation with the Corning Product Manager, that G-2000 green laser would incorporate enhancements leading to brighter pictures… with a target goal of 20 lumens or better.

Here’re some links…

Corning G-1000 laser design [at 10 lumens with 10:1 contrast ratio] and the SIDM-based adaptive optics technology…
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=14329

Corning G-2000 laser pumps more lumens [like 23 lumens] at a reduced contrast ratio of 3:1 …
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=12733

Corning licked its waveguided SHG laser production issues last year by switching over to SIDM-based adaptive optics technology.

This year, Corning is the wild card with its contrast optimized green laser at 23 lumens.

Microvision future is bright and is getting brighter every day… just like its laser PicoP Display Engine.

Higher stock valuation will come in time… just like the HD resolution on its PicoP projection images.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential

I have always believed investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift; with an eye on the long term growth prospects of the company.

In the last 30 odd years that I have been investing, I have had my share of good fortune and misfortune. However, what’s important is the fact that I managed to secure my financial future and live today to talk about my strategy of investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift. Some of these companies─ like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, and Cisco─ have grown to be huge enterprises and have made their early investors over 10,000% or more since their inception.

A while back I wrote a post about my 14,000% profit experience with Intel during its growth phase from early 80’s to the end of Dot.com era in the year 2000. Here’s the link to that post…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/intel-i-made-over-14000-profit-since.html

I’m one of those old timers that invested in Intel during its early days as a company… in the early 80’s. I recall buying some shares for a total cost of $1,000 dollars. I had to liquidate all my position in Intel during the Dot Com bust of 2000… around May of that year. However, it was not all that bad, because I managed to sell pretty close to the all time high and I remember bragging about my good fortune and fortitude to have stayed the course to make over 14,000% profit… for a net gain of over $140,000 dollars including dividends and the stock splits.

The past performers in my portfolio have served well. However, these companies like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, Cisco, and Microsoft are past their hyper growth phase and are now too big and are just slow earnings growth vehicles. No disrespect to these fine companies… it’s just that they don’t fit the “hyper growth” company model any more.

One of my stocks holding now, besides an options income portfolio, is Microvision. I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.

Here’s why…

On Wall Street, you often hear terms like “top dog” or “first mover” in the context of a growth stock presentation to institutional clients. It’s quite interesting really…

A "top dog" is a company that dominates its industry... and a "first mover" is a company with a technology or product so revolutionary that it disrupts an existing industry and creates an entirely new one.

On the rare occasion that you find a company that is both─ both a top dog and a first mover ─ the chances are pretty good that you've found your next big winner...

Just think of eBay in the online auction market... Amazon in the online retail market... Netflix in the DVD-rental market… and Cisco in the router market… etc.

These companies redefined the way business was done, launched entirely new industries, and continue to dominate those industries to this day. And you don't need me to tell you how handsomely they've rewarded shareholders along the way.

In order to find companies that will deliver truly life-changing investment returns, you have to find growth companies early in their life cycle and truly believe that they are indeed the ones to ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift… with potential of sustained long term growth.

Before we talk about Microvision as the growth company of the future with a 50,000% profit potential, let’s first consider…

Is now really a good time to be buying growth stocks?

The fact is; it takes guts to make money in this market.

But here's some good news…

For one thing, our current economic conditions bear a striking similarity to the economic downturn of the early 1990s. And Morningstar reports that during that recession, “growth” stocks more than doubled the return of "value" stocks.

For another thing, "growth” stocks can excel even if the broad market continues to stumble. In fact, the analysts expect better profit prospects for growth stocks than for value stocks.

Money for nothing...
We have to be realistic in our expectations when searching or investing in growth companies. The purpose of looking at the great companies listed above is not to show that growth investing is an all-win situation. Far from it!

The purpose of the illustration is to demonstrate how well great companies perform over a long period. If you can identify just one great company early, and then hold on for the long term, you can do pretty well for yourself.

Growth investing is highly volatile, and it will fray the nerves of those individuals with a low risk tolerance. Having said that, all investors should devote a portion of their portfolios to growth stocks. For those traveling in the fast lane, an allocation of 30% of their portfolios might make sense. More conservative types should allocate at least 10% in order to provide a little juice for their investments. I'm somewhere in between, so I devote about 20% of my portfolio to growth.

Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential

I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.

In order to become a very successful, profitable and huge company [in terms of market capitalization] you need the following pre-requisites:

Management: with expertise, vision, support network, past record, communicative and persuasive skills and a will to succeed.

In my opinion, we have the best possible management with all the pre-requisite attributes necessary for managing Microvision at this stage of the company’s growth. Here’s a link for your review…

http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/team.html

Financially Sound: with money to support on-going operations, R&D expenditures, product development and commercialization.

According to the latest annual report for period ending December 2009, Microvision had $45.7 million in cash and short term cash instruments. Looking at the financials, the company is burning about $11 million per Qtr. At this rate, the company has about 4 Qtr worth of cash… assuming no additional revenue from product sales or contract payments.

Since we already have a SHOWwx product lunched in the US, Europe and the Asia Pacific region… I would venture to say that most R&D expenses have already been incurred [almost $300 million to date] and net profit from sales could reduce the cash burn by 3-4 million dollars per Qtr. That would stretch the available cash reserves to 7 Qtr or so. It’s ironic, but the investors of the past have funded this massive R&D undertaking to-date. However, the current investors will reap the benefits and are assured the company has cash to fund the on-going operations, product development and embedded PDEs commercialization.

Here’re some links…
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1400178&highlight=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=MVIS

Disruptive Technology: that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.

Microvision’s core technology [PicoP Display Engine] is weaved into five product offerings and each of the product line has the potential of generating billions in revenue:

Vehicle Displays: for automobiles.
http://www.microvision.com/vehicle_displays/index.html

Wearable Displays: a see-through, high-resolution display platform that enables lightweight and fashionable eyewear displays for mobile devices. Microvision’s Color Eyewear platform allows mobile users to access their personal content and services while keeping their vision of the outside world free and clear, letting mobile users stay on the move.

http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/mobile.html

Pico Projector Displays: brings big screens to small devices. The Pico Projector or “PicoP Display Engine” can be embedded in mobile phones, laptop or similarly-sized mobile devices to enable upto 100” full color projection display [with DVD resolution] for applications such as streaming video, digital TV, high resolution photographs, and surfing the net.

Standalone Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/standalone.html

Embedded Unit:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/embedded.html

Applications Gallery:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html

Military Displays: are used across various branches of the U.S. Military including the U.S. Army, and U.S. Army Reserve.
http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/military.html

Laser Bar Code Scanner: features a patent-pending, low-cost, shock-resistant, mechanical/magnetic laser scan engine.
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/index.html

Competitive Advantage: Microvision has over 115 U.S. Patents issued and 79 Patents pending to protect its intellectual property… giving it a huge competitive edge.

http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/index.html

Technologically Feasible: Microvision has five different products in its portfolio. Each product has been demonstrated to be technologically feasible… with some being offered commercially.

PicoP Display Engine technology is based on the proven and mature silicon MEMS laser scanning mirror technology… as demonstrated by their commercially marketed “ROV” bar code scanner system.

http://www.microvision.com/technology/index.html
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/rov.html

The company recently launched the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010.

http://www.microvision.com/showwx/

Microvision has teamed-up with Asia Optical, a global leader in optical component solutions and contract manufacturing, speaks highly of the technological feasibility of the PicoP product. This collaboration focuses on leveraging Asia Optical experience in high-volume design and manufacturing to create a compact, manufacture able and affordable PicoP Display Engine product for Microvision customers. Ultimately, it is expected that PicoP Display Engine will be incorporated into a variety of applications and products in the automotive and mobile consumer electronic products.

The development agreement with Vodafone and Motorola is big for the following reasons…

The deal with the top tier cell-phone companies [Vodafone and Motorola] validates the Microvision technology and its business model.

The deal with Vodafone and Motorola are not exclusive [at this stage] and possibly is the beginning of a relationship that can easily grow into these companies taking equity interest in MVIS… or a possible buyout in the future. As the company [MVIS] has indicated, they are talking to several other large mobile phone and consumer electronics firms.

The top tier cell-phone companies [like Vodafone and Motorola] see value in announcing the relationship with Microvision at this stage of the product development… meaning that the product is within the spec for an embedded device for the cell-phones… and on schedule for early introduction in 2011.

Microvision launched the standalone PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010 and is on schedule to deliver the embedded unit for commercial production in early 2011.

Market Size: The market for PicoP Display Engine is huge. The potential markets are automobiles, mobile phones, smartphones, laptops, PDAs, iPods, iPhones, Pads, digital cameras, camcorders, personal mobile TVs, and the fashion eyewear.

Here are some world-wide statistics...
New autos: sales for 2007 … 49 million units
http://www.metrics2.com/blog/2006/12/28/world_auto_sales_flat_in_2007_china_becomes_no3_re.html

New Mobile Phone Sales: for 2007… 1.15 billion units
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/item/?ci=29702

New Laptop Sales: for 2007 … 207 million units
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,132861-pg,1/article.html

New “PDA’s, iPods, iPhones, Digital Cameras and Camcorders”… over 300 million units

New Eyewear Sale: for 2008… 1 billion units

Personal Mobile TV/Projectors… new market opens up with potential 1 billion units
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html

Technology and Business Partnerships: Microvision has partnered with the biggest [financially], the most respected [for over 100 years] and the best in the business to design and manufacture its PicoP Display Engine for the automotive and consumer electronic markets.

Now what we need is a few more commercial business partners and OEM agreements for the PicoP Display Engine and Wearable Display product line. I am sure it will happen soon and when it does happen the MVIS stock will run up the charts as we have never seen before.

Microvision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…

When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.

Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?

When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.

So what’s Microvision’s “killer app”?

It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.

What makes Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine technology as "Killer app" in simple terms?

1. Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.

2. Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.

3. Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.

4. Large projected images [up to 100”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.

5. High resolution image [848x480] at 10 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 20 lumens or more brightness.

6. Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology matures and economies of scale are achieved.

7. Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next.

The PicoP Display Engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to Microvision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PDE to the rest of Microvision product line of applications that are currently under development.

Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisors compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!

Well, Microvision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your Microvision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.

But that will change in the next Qtr when the earnings report will show increasing sales of SHOWwx projector from the US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.

When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in Microvision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 5 years.

Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range.

Here’s an educated projection…

• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]

• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]

• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units

• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units

• OEM price: $90 per PicoP Display Engine

• Revenue: $4 billion

• Net Profit Margin: 40%

• Net Profit: $1.6 billion

• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]

• Interest Expense: $0 million

• Interest Income: $20 million

• Tax: $220million

• Depreciation: non cash and very small

• Amortization: non cash and very small

• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion

• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]

• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company

• Price Per Share: $390 per share

In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/