Showing posts with label Media Player. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Media Player. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Microvision: United States Patent 7,822,086

Laser Projection Temperature Compensation

United States Patent 7,822,086
Brown, et al.
October 26, 2010

Inventors: Brown: Margaret K. (Seattle, WA), Sprague; Randall B. (Carnation, WA), Schaaf; Michael L. (Bainbridge Island, WA), Xue; Bin (Mukilteo, WA)
Assignee: Microvision, Inc. (Redmond, WA)
Appl. No: 11/829,459
Filed: July 27, 2007

Abstract
The temperature of a laser diode changes in response to video content across a line of a displayed image, and the radiance changes as a function of temperature. An adaptive model estimates the temperature of the laser diode based on prior drive current values. For each displayed pixel, diode drive current is determined from the estimated diode temperature and a desired radiance value. A feedback circuit periodically measures the actual temperature and updates the adaptive model.
*****

Here’s the link to full text and images database at USPTO web site…
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearchadv.htm&r=1&p=1&f=G&l=50&d=PTXT&S1=7,822,086.PN.&OS=pn/7,822,086&RS=PN/7,822,086

Observation:
This morning, the Microvision stock MVIS is up by a few cents and it makes you wonder why? So, we grabed our sleuth hat and went hunting for any news that may be driving this small move.

Here's what I found…
This patent on “Laser Projection Temperature Compensation” is the most significant patent to-date that Microvision now has in its IP portfolio… because, it provides much broader patent protection coverage for RGB laser light source diodes that could be used by anyone for laser light based image projection.

Some folks consider this worth a few cents added to MVIS stock price…
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=MVIS

However, if the stock volume traded today exceeds 1,000,000 shares... then the true impact of this patent could be recognized much more widely as being larger than a few cents rise in MVIS stock price today.

When you consider a few pennies in royalties every time RGB laser light diodes are used as light source in video image projection… the royalty earnings impact could surely be worth lot more than just a few cents in stock price rise.

However, the use of RGB laser diodes as light source for multi-media video image projection lies in the future... so do the potential royalty based earnings for Microvision.

We just have to wait and see how this new twist in Microvision’s future plays out in terms of dollars and cents?

Anant Goel

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Next Paradigm Shift: The Internet Would Democratize Broadcasting and Content Delivery

Over the last few years, there has been such a confluence of technologies in so many different sectors that it is about to bring several paradigm shifts… and in the process shape our lives and also open-up new frontiers to commercial opportunities.

There is a long list of paradigm shifts taking place right under our noses while we work, play or snooze. As the title suggests, here we will just focus on: How Internet Would Democratize Broadcasting and Content Delivery.

How attractive does a new technology have to be to warrant adoption and utilization?

It all started with YouTube and the beginning of ‘broadcast your self” phenomenon in the year 2005.

YouTube is free; and is a video-sharing website on which users can upload, share, and view videos. YouTube uses Adobe Flash Video technology to display a wide variety of user-generated video content, including movie clips, TV clips, and music videos, as well as, amateur content such as video blogs and short original videos. In the early days, most all of the content on YouTube was uploaded by individuals, although there were some early adopter media corporations including CBS, BBC, VEVO and other organizations that offered some of their material via the site, as part of the YouTube partnership program.

Unregistered users can watch the videos, while registered users are permitted to upload an unlimited number of videos. Videos that are considered to contain potentially offensive content are available only to registered users 18 and older.

Before the launch of YouTube, there were only a few easy methods available for ordinary computer users who wanted to post videos online. However, with its simple interface, YouTube made it possible for anyone with an Internet connection to post a video that a worldwide audience could watch within a few minutes. The wide range of topics covered by YouTube has turned video sharing into one of the fastest growing and most important part of Internet culture.

Follow the Eyeballs

Consumer demand for service providers to deliver content to any device, at any time and in any location is growing more prevalent each year. Consumers are gaining additional control over how they access content, whether it’s through personal computers, mobile devices or set-top boxes… challenging service providers’ traditional walled living room offerings and in the process threatening their position in the content delivery value chain.

“All service providers need to do is follow the eyeballs,” said Stef van der Ziel, Jet-Stream CEO. “Thanks to the Internet, consumers are revolutionizing the way they access content, and content owners and advertisers are following their lead. Service providers don’t want to be left behind; they want a portion of the content distribution opportunity.”

To do this, service providers must evolve from triple play services─ offering phone, Internet and video, to ‘open play’ platforms that deliver content to all four screens─ PC, Mobile client, TV and the pico projector.

Technology: Deployment of the “Four Screens CDN”

Anyone with commercial interests in streaming media services and CDN [content delivery network] technologies; and that has ever produced a video for YouTube or a web cast, will tell you that the Internet would democratize broadcasting. If a college dropout with heavy interest in media and technology could broadcast video globally on YouTube, then anyone would be able to do so. In a matter of time, all content would be distributed via the web to PC’s, mobile clients, and TV’s and pico projectors. The signs are all around you… just look at the latest products and services offered by Apple, Amazon, NetFlix, Hulu, ESPN and so on.

Years ago, I envisioned a future where consumers and companies would not be locked in walled living rooms… and content owners could distribute content directly to consumers. It was just a matter of time, people and companies [like Apple, NetFlix, Hulu, ESPN] would use the Internet to share content. I also foresaw that the Internet could not handle the sheer volumes of content. There would be a huge need for smart distribution technologies. Telcos will have to follow the eyeballs and embrace Internet based content and consumption on all four screens─ the PC, mobile client, TV, and pico projector by deploying intelligent CDNs.

The Open Play

Enormous amount of resources will be spent to scale the web for professional and massive content delivery; to democratize broadcasting, to disrupt the traditional cable and broadcasting industry and to break open this market so anyone could create, distribute and consume content, anywhere, without borders.

Continued Market Growth Ahead for CDNs

In 2008, the entire global market for video delivery services was only $400 million, according to Frost & Sullivan. That’s a really small number when compared to the overall CDN market size or many of the other segments of the infrastructure market. It shows that the CDN market still has a long way to go and that many opportunities still exist.

Most content owners still don’t make any money with their content, but just imagine what the CDN market will look like when they do. CDNs will be even more crucial down the road as content owners rely on them to help them generate revenue. In the next few years, as more devices [like Apple TV, iPhone, iPad] come to the market, consumers will begin to adopt them in large numbers—then the market will change.

While many ask when this is going to happen and what the next tipping point will be that gives CDNs the next surge of traffic, you have to remember that it does not happen overnight. Many use the example of YouTube and 2007 as being the year that the CDN market really exploded. But what most people didn’t see, or don’t know about, is all the work that was taking place in the CDN space leading up to that event in the years before. Companies worked very hard from 2004 to 2007—none of that perceived growth in 2007 truly happened overnight.

Today, we’re building the market size for CDNs every single day. Even with the poor economy, you don’t see less content online… you see more. You don’t see poorer quality video… you see HD. You don’t see fewer devices… you see more platforms than ever before. This is what we’re building on. So when it seems like there is a sudden surge in the CDN business years from now, with or without Telco’s, remember that it did not happen overnight.

Tough times for many of the vendors in the CDN space may be coming to an end. All industries need corrections, and the CDN industry is no different. The bottom line is that the CDN industry has never been stronger, has never been more needed, and will only continue to evolve to help do more than just deliver some bits from point A to point B.

In the future, private CDNs─ like the one rumored at Apple, will flourish. Streaming media analyst Dan Rayburn reported last year that Apple was planning to bring some of its CDN capabilities in-house. “Folks I have spoken to inside Apple told me that once the new data center is completed, Apple plans to have a more active role in doing their own content delivery,” Rayburn wrote, noting a precedent. “While its way too early to speculate what kind of content Apple will deliver and in what volume, this strategy is nearly identical to what we’ve seen Microsoft do over the years.”

In closing, I must re-state that most CDNs will become profitable, some will be worth acquiring, and many content owners will be willing to pay more for a service that makes them money. We’re all waiting for this time to come. And while it won’t come overnight, I think it will happen sooner than many people may realize.

Anant Goel

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Microvision: Ultimate in Mobility… Functionality… Cool Factor (update 9/2010)

It would be cool if Microvision's laser PicoP Display Engine was inside this cube…
http://www.psfk.com/2009/05/60-inch-screen-in-your-pocket.html

Last year, there was so much speculation in the media [by designer YankoDesign] that it almost felt like the real thing would be on the market soon. Just look at the write-up on this “Nokia Pulse Projector” from last year…

“Nokia Pulse Projector is a tiny LED projector that also functions as an NXT speaker with Dolby Sound. This tiny projector uses Bluetooth and Pulse software to communicate with a mobile phone.

It’s meant to pair up with mobile phone, making a pair of perfect multimedia device and the user will be able to use the mobile phone to control this LED projector. The Nokia Pulse Projector relies on DLP Technology for high quality imagery. It’s able to project with native resolution of 1280×768 and 1500:1 contrast ratio pimps out crisp image quality, with picture sizes ranging from 15 inches diagonally all the way up to 60 inches at 7.87 feet. It even sports LED light technology with 1000 lumens of brightness plus 16.7 million colors.

It’ll be another great mini-sized projector that can be carried around anywhere you go for an impromptu presentation of those pictures, videos and slides on your mobile phone, and it lets the mobile phone to be used as the projector’s remote. Nice, but it should be just a concept at the moment."

[via yankodesign]
*****
Here’s the link…
http://askalexia.com/2009/05/23/nokia-pulse-projector/

Here’s some more on this Nokia Pulse with Microvision Mobile Projector inside speculation…

“The Nokia Pulse, a concept by Miika Mahonen, is similar to the soon to be released Microvision Mobile Projector. They’re both designed to be powerful mobile display systems that can use a mobile phone as the source of video and as a remote control. The Nokia Pulse also combines an NXT-speaker with Dolby sound processing into the compact device, which can (theoretically) project images up to 60-inches on any wall.”

Continues…
[via Yanko Design]
*****
Here’s the link…
http://www.psfk.com/2009/05/60-inch-screen-in-your-pocket.html

One year later, however, the concept remains to be just that… a concept. But wait a minute… over the last year, a few developments have come together to bring us closer to this, or something similar to this, as a possible reality in the near future.

There are essentially three parts for this concept to work and they all seem to be in place now…

• Microvision laser based PicoP Projector SHOWwx: was released in the US in March of 2010… and that’s the major part of the puzzle now in place.

The award-winning SHOWwx, available for sale through a variety of distributors and at http://www.microvision.com/showwx, is a standalone laser pico projector intended for simple plug-and-play integration with mobile devices, such as iPod, cell phones, MP3 players, laptops and gaming devices.

• Samsung's new Wireless USB chipset: enables HD streaming with less power.

It's a beautiful combination, really… lower power consumption, and support for high bandwidth applications. That marriage is evident in Samsung's newest Wireless USB chipset, which was built around Ultra Wide Band (UWB) technology and designed to enable high-def streaming between a mobile host device and a tethered device for viewing.

Ultra-Wide Band technology offers many advantages, especially in terms of very high data transmission rates which are well beyond those possible with currently deployed technologies such as 802.11a, b, g, WiMax and the like. As such UWB technology is gaining considerable acceptance and being proposed for use in a number of areas. Already Bluetooth, Wireless USB and others are developing solutions, and in these areas alone its use should be colossal.

According to Samsung, the two-chip solution will be aimed at cameras, camcorders, TVs, PCs, tablets, beam projectors, portable HDDs, Blu-ray players and handsets, and given that it can handle a theoretical high of 480Mbps with an average power consumption of less than 300mW, even the weakest smartphone battery should be able to stream at least a single episode of Family Guy to the TV or a pico projector. It's slated to hit mass production in Q4 and we'd say more details should be available right around CES 2011.

• Pulse Software: that controls communications between the pico projector and the mobile host device. This Pulse software could be part of the Samsung’s wireless USB chipset solution, or a company specific product like… Nokia Pulse [if there is such a thing]…or Apple AirPlay… etc.

“While the Pulse is still just an idea, Microvision is currently working with other companies to incorporate their PicoP Display Engine into devices such as phones, media players, and laptops. Is screen size on your mobile phone irrelevant if you can project onto any wall?”

Perhaps!

Just take a look…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypZO6_7hcNQ&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0

With Microvision laser PicoP Display Engine in-side; this cube could be the ultimate in mobility, functionality and cool factor.

Not only that, it is a productivity enhancing tool for business communications, as well as, a perfect product for personal and interactive entertainment… all in one cool package.

Everything that you need to put this cool product out there for the consumer to buy is here… all it takes, is the vision and the will to succeed before the next product cycle or someone else comes-up with a better mouse trap.

Anant Goel

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Microvision: Apple─ The Media Player OEM?

At the Microvision shareholder’s meeting on September 15th, 2009, there were some questions asked about OEM relationship with Apple.

My take on CEO Alex Tokman’s answer was something like: “Apple World loves us and we have to be ready… I just ask you that you be patient.” In all probability, Microvision was in talks with “Apple”, however, there wasn't enough unit volume of PicoP Display Engines for Apple’s appetite at that time to be engaged officially.

Fast forward to today, last day of August 2010…

A year later, you may want to re-visit the questions about Apple in light of Microvision’s $11.1 million order from a [non-disclosed] Media Player OEM for the embedded PDEs…

• $11.1 million in initial order is not a small order by any means… because after the initial order, all of Microvision production could go to this OEM on a monthly basis. And these monthly orders represent about $12 million per Qtr [20,000pm x 3m x $200per unit = $12 million] in the first half of 2011… and increasing.

• With 5 Green Laser suppliers, the unit production can easily be ramped –up to 100,000 units per month… and that’s a decent production run for any Premium Media Player OEM like Apple or NetFlix.

• With diode GL coming into play some time in 2011, number of units can only go higher than the 100,000 per month… and that’s not shabby at all.

• Since announcing the Media Player OEM early this year, Microvision has been very tight lipped about the identity of this OEM… which is a typical modus of operands for any of the Apple suppliers. A small time OEM would probably follow the example of rest of the OEM flock in the CE industry─ where it is a common practice to earn some free publicity by announcing new products in the pipe line.

• CEO of Microvision has, on more than one occasion, stated publicly that the Media Player OEM would announce the product on its own time schedule before the 2010 Christmas shopping season. Well, early September is a good time to announce new products for the 2010 seasonal shopping… don’t you think? Apple will be making product announcements on September 1st … now that’s some coincidence!!!

• On March 8th, 2010, Microvision announced two new members of the management team: Joe O'Sullivan as Vice President of Global Operations and Michael Fritts as Vice President of Global Sales, Marketing, and Business Development.

Mr. O'Sullivan is a consumer electronics industry veteran with executive management experience at Apple Computer and InFocus. At Apple, Mr. O'Sullivan spent 15 years in operations and supply chain management, including Vice President of Operations where he was instrumental in building a global operations infrastructure in Asia. In addition, he developed Apple's International Procurement Organization strategy, building a structure in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Europe.

Today, a day before Apple’s new product introduction on September 1st , we hear this rumor about: “New iPod May Include Projector”.  Could it be Microvision’s laser based PicoP projector inside the Apple’s new premium iPod?

We just have to wait and see.

Here’s the link to the rumor news…
http://www.benzinga.com/company-news/contracts/10/08/450653/new-ipod-may-include-projector-mvis-aapl

While we wait, let’s look at Apple’s secret to success…

“Show and Sell”

All the while the competition…

"Flashes an exotic prototype, then – Presto! – get consumers to buy their more boring stuff. That kind of thinking still rules at most electronics companies. Apple under Steve Jobs only shows off actual products. And that difference is Apple’s arcane secret to success."

Like washed-up Catskill magicians unable to let go of old routines while a brash upstart steals their audience, nearly every maker of consumer electronics in the world clings to a quaint song-and-dance about prototypes.

“Here is your possible future,” they bark, flourishing the latest conceptual product from the lab. “Now watch us make it disappear!”

Apple’s chief magician, however, knows better, pulling solid objects out of the ether; products you can actually buy.

No one can be sure until the rumors lead the way to actual news in the media or corporate announcements.

But if you think it is possible, than rest assure it can happen someday.

If this sounds like a minor complaint about most of the industry’s lack of imagination in marketing, you’re misunderstanding the whole act. The fact that Apple does not reveal prototypes but shipping products; is the fundamental difference between their entire business strategy and that of the rest of the CE industry. It evokes a feeling of trust between Apple and consumers – that when Apple actually reveals a product, it’s something that they’re confident enough to support for years to come.

Anant Goel

Friday, August 27, 2010

Microvision: Investors Are Just Frustrated

Definition of “Frustration”…

• The act of frustrating or an instance of being frustrated
• The state of being frustrated
• Something that serves to frustrate

Let's add one more definition to the word frustration...

“waiting for definitive plans and answers to simple question from Microvision while being told that the management will disclose them soon by the next CC… or some other future event that has come and gone by the way side over the last 4 years.”

How dare we worry about where our investment dollars are going when it's such a small part of the big picture of: “the holly grail of embedded PicoP projectors in the billion unit mobile world?” What frustrates us now is another article about the Green Laser price and availability. It sounded like yet another warning, by those in the industry, why a laser based PicoP will fail because of Green Laser pricing issues. I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the issue, but can somebody please throw some light on this 4 year old issue of GL availability, pricing and stability issues as they affect the profit margins and eventual success of laser based PicoP projectors.

Here’re some more thoughts on frustration…

  • Having the wool pulled over our eyes is frustrating;
  • Lack of communications in spoken English is frustrating;
  • Waiting for straight answers is frustrating;
  • Having legitimate concerns brushed aside is frustrating;
  • Being told to take the pain and ignore the small stuff is frustrating;
  • Watching the market price of MVIS drift lower and lower is frustrating, too.
There is enough dry powder on the sidelines to send this market [and MVIS stock price] significantly higher, even into the plus column for the year. But, would-be buyers continue to be stymied as each day brings more questions rather than answers and we keep hearing how off base our concerns are. While panic has become the permanent aroma that greets investors each day, I sense frustration could be moving the market more than any other feeling these days, and certainly over the last few days.

I'm getting emails and phone calls and I know that many folks just want to throw in the towel out of frustration and a lack of confidence. Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be just fine and at the end of the day [in mid 2011] Microvision investor will come out whole.

If you are wondering “why mid 2011”…

Here’s what I have finally figured out…

• Currently, the quantities of synthetic green lasers and the ASICs are too small─ like 5,000 to 10,000 units per month, and the cost is relatively too expensive… thus the negative profit margins. The key word is “relatively”… meaning product cost [in such small quantities] is more than the transfer price that can be charged to the OEMs at a suggested retail price of $549.

• To put it another way; if the retail price was increased to $649 and the transfer price charged to OEMs also raised by say $60… than the relative cost of product─ at such small quantities, may NOT be, relatively speaking, too expensive… thus the potential for positive profit margins.

However, the recent drop of $100 in the retail price of SHOWwx [from $549 to $449] mucks the waters yet again and that is frustrating. Does this mean that the price of synthetic green lasers has come down significantly to a point where Microvision can charge less for SHOWwx and still make some profit? Well, that is one thought… as in one side of the coin so to speak.

The other side of the coin could be; that Microvision needs to clear old stock at a loss in anticipation of second generation PDEs that are expected to be cheaper, smaller, more energy efficient and with higher 15- lumen brightness and 720P HD resolution.

We don’t know for sure one way or the other… and that is frustrating.

The current debate between synthetic green lasers versus the diode [direct] green lasers got so confusing at the 2nd Qtr earnings CC that Microvision CEO responded with a Blog post at The Displayground to clear-up the matter.

Here’s the link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1761#comments

Green Laser Diodes Are On the Way, In the Meantime If Done Right Synthetic Green Lasers Have an Embedded Play

What I find very interesting is the comment about…

“We have already begun to see availability of the first generation synthetic lasers increase. The next generation synthetic green lasers are expected to be more efficient and less expensive than their first generation cousins. We also anticipate that the direct green lasers targeted for introduction in the second half of next year may not reach desired performance and cost targets immediately. For these reasons, we believe that synthetic lasers could continue to remain a competitive alternative to direct green lasers for at least the first 4-5 years after diodes are introduced.”

From the CEO comments about synthetic lasers, it is now clear that they have 4-5 years as the economic life cycle… before the diode green laser mature and become cost competitive. Considering the potential volume sales of laser based pico projectors over the next 5 years, which could easily run into 200-300 million units, there’s enough incentive for the synthetic green laser manufactures to ramp-up production with corresponding drop in prices.

I see two opportunities for cost reduction, and a very strong possibility of profitable margins, in the near future…

• Next generation green lasers and ASICs should be coming out in the next three or four months and they are more efficient and less expensive… and that bodes well for positive margins.

• A significantly large order from an OEM, in the 50,000 to 100,000 units per month range, will not only motivate the synthetic Green Laser suppliers, Corning and Osram, to crank-up the production lines… but it will also help reach the critical volume in terms of quantities that would result in some dramatic price drop.

With next generation synthetic Green Laser supply continuing to improve over the rest of year 2010, it is just the matter of time that a visionary company like Apple will come waltzing down the aisle to embed Microvision’s PDEs in their smartphones, iPads or iPods etc. If it is not Apple or NetFlix initially, it will be someone else… you can bet on that.

It may not be quite apparent to the naked eye; but with a little diligence the negative profit margins issue is just a short term anomaly that should correct itself in the next three to four months.

In the meantime, we are just frustrated!

Anant Goel

Microvision: Announces Second Quarter 2010 Results

Press Release
August 05, 2010
04:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time

Quarterly Revenue Grows to $2.1 Million and Backlog to $20.1 Million

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported its operating and financial results for the second quarter of 2010.

Operating Results
“I’m pleased to report that our ongoing investment to improve our production and supply chain capabilities resulted in a more stable and predictable flow of finished product in the second quarter,” stated Alexander Tokman, President and CEO. “We continue to see an increase in our green laser supply and smooth conversion of raw materials into finished goods. This strengthening of capacity will become increasingly important in the second half of 2010 as we plan to deliver larger volumes of PicoP®-based products to our customers to meet their strong demand.

“Our backlog grew to a record $20.1 million and includes a $3.4 million follow-on order from our initial OEM display engine customer. The demand for our PicoP-based products remains strong from both existing and new customers who are excited about the unique capabilities of our PicoP projection solution. In connection with our capacity increase during the second quarter, we have increased our global distribution points and continue to qualify additional distribution partners. Customer response to the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector has been very positive.

“Our future success will depend on our ability to anticipate consumer needs and rapidly innovate to bring new products to market leveraging the unique capabilities of our PicoP technology. With this in mind, we recently unveiled a 15-lumen, 720p HD-ready pico projector prototype. We have received a very enthusiastic response to the high resolution, brighter images from this prototype and believe that advancing our PicoP technology platform will continue to position us as a premier provider of customer-focused projection solutions,” concluded Mr. Tokman.

Financial Results
The following financial results are for the three and six months ended June 30, 2010, respectively, compared to the same period one year earlier.

Revenue was $2.1 million compared to $987,000 for the second quarter and $2.8 million, compared to $1.9 million for the first half. The company’s quarterly revenue grew from the first quarter of 2010 and year-over-year as higher volumes of PicoP-based products were shipped to customers.

Backlog was $20.1 million at June 30, 2010 compared to $854,000 at June 30, 2009. The backlog is composed almost exclusively of orders for the company’s PicoP embedded engine and its SHOWWX laser pico projector.

Operating loss was $11.1 million compared to $9.5 million for the quarter, and $20.6 million compared to $18.6 million for the first half. The increased operating loss was due to higher operating costs attributable to commercialization of the SHOWWX product.

Net loss for the quarter was $11.1 million, or $0.12 per share compared to $10.4 million, or $0.15 per share. Net loss for the six months was $20.2 million, or $0.23 per share compared to $19.3 million, or $0.28 per share.

Net cash used in operating activities for the six months was $22.3 million, compared to $16.3 million. The increase was attributable to a higher net loss and an increase in working capital requirements. The increase in working capital requirements reflected a combination of increased inventory of raw materials and subassemblies with long lead times as the company prepares to ship higher product volumes in the second half of the year to meet customer delivery requirements, and a higher accounts receivable balance due to the timing of product shipments during the quarter.

The company ended the quarter with $22.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and investment securities.

Management will discuss the company’s operating and financial results and current business operations in more detail during its conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT today.

Continues…
*****
Here’s the link to the full Press Release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Announces-Second-bw-2632688220.html?x=0&.v=1

Here’re some observations from the earnings report and the subsequent CC later in the evening…

Operating Results Observation:
• Improved production and supply chain capabilities resulted in a more stable and predictable flow of finished product in the second quarter. Return rates on the SHOWwx are now averaging 2.5%... well below the industry norms.

• Continue to see an increase in the synthetic Green Laser supply and smooth conversion of raw materials into finished goods.

• Strengthening of capacity in the second half of 2010 to meet strong customer demand.

• Backlog grew to a record $20.1 million and includes a $3.4 million follow-on order from the initial OEM for embedded PDEs customer.

• The demand for PicoP-based products remains strong from both existing and new customers.

• Capacity increase during the second quarter allowed Microvision to increase their global distribution points and they continue to qualify additional distribution partners.

• Customer response to the SHOWwx™ laser pico projector has been very positive.

• Microvision has received a very enthusiastic response to the high resolution, brighter images from the new 15-lumen, 720p HD-ready PicoP prototype.

The high end media product is expected to be released for the 2010 Christmas holiday shopping season and the follow-up order form this customer sort of confirms what CEO Tokman had said at the 1st Qtr CC.

• It appears Microvision sold about 5,000 SHOWwx… to arrive at the $2 million in product sales revenue.

• Green Laser Diodes are on the way. In the meantime, if done right, the synthetic Green Lasers have an embedded play… for the next 4-5 years. Here’s what CEO Tokman said in The Displayground Blog post…

“We have already begun to see availability of the first generation synthetic lasers increase. The next generation synthetic green lasers are expected to be more efficient and less expensive than their first generation cousins. We also anticipate that the direct green lasers targeted for introduction in the second half of next year may not reach desired performance and cost targets immediately. For these reasons, we believe that synthetic lasers could continue to remain a competitive alternative to direct green lasers for at least the first 4-5 years after diodes are introduced.”

• If a respectable customer places a large order, Microvision would certainly discuss with the synthetic Green Laser suppliers the possibility of increasing production.

Here’s my take on this subject…

Corning and Osram have a limited manufacturing capacity that’s capable of handling the currently forecasted product introduction volumes. However, with sufficient investment, they could expand the manufacturing capacity. This would represent up front capital cost and Microvision can't do it by itself.

Let me put it bluntly…

Assuming "Sony or Apple" places an order for 1,000,000 units spread over a year and deliverable starting say mid 2011… then Corning and Osram could invest into expanding their synthetic GL manufacturing capacity and provide the necessary product. The reason Tokman indicated a "respectable customer" is because they would be the ones to deal with the GL suppliers and guarantee the payment for this capacity increase. Having "Sony or Apple" as a customer pretty much guarantees that the order will not be cancelled just for the fun of it. I'm sure they already know the price point where it is worth upgrading manufacturing capacity… either for a large order from a "respectable customer" or a lot of small orders where the expected rate of default would still ensure a profit for the GL manufacturers.

• Microvision expects 5-7 green laser suppliers in 2011.

Financial Results Observation:
• Revenues for the 2nd Qtr were $2.1 million compared to $987,000 for the second quarter of 2009… and the growth on the year-over-year basis was from higher volumes of PicoP-based products that were actually shipped to customers.

For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade in March 2010, the Microvision management team was awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales.

With that in mind, and taking all the plausible scenarios into consideration, I was looking at $1,900,000 to $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010.

As I said before; anything less than $1,900,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of poor sales… that are not necessarily held back by green laser availability. Current events and management changes taking place at Microvision pointed more to this revenue number than anything higher. With product revenues for the 2nd Qtr coming-in at $2 million and the backlog increased to $20.1 million… I’m not sure what to make of it and that is frustrating.

• Backlog was $20.1 million at June 30, 2010.

• The backlog is composed almost exclusively of orders for the PicoP embedded engine and its SHOWwx laser pico projector.

• Operating loss was $11.1 million for the 2nd Qtr.

• The increased operating loss was due to higher operating costs attributable to commercialization of the SHOWwx product.

• Net loss for the quarter was $11.1 million, or $0.12 per share compared to $10.4 million, or $0.15 per share.

• The increase in net loss was attributable to a higher net loss and an increase in working capital requirements. The increase in working capital is reflected by a combination of increased inventory of raw materials and subassemblies with long lead times─ as the company prepares to ship higher product volumes in the second half of the year, and a higher accounts receivable balance─ due to the timing of product shipments during the 2nd quarter.

• From the 2nd Qtr Income Statement; the Product Revenue was $2,015,000 with Cost of Product Revenue being $3,337,000. The costs to produce accessory pico projector units during the three months ended June 30, 2010 were substantially higher than product revenue. Cost of product revenue includes the direct and allocated indirect cost of manufacturing products sold to customers. Direct costs include labor, materials and other costs incurred directly in the manufacture of these products. Indirect costs include labor and other costs associated with operating the manufacturing capabilities and capacity.

• During the three months ended June 30, 2010, cost of product revenue included a lower of cost or market adjustment of $701,000 for inventory in stock at the end of the quarter.

• The overhead cost included in the cost of product revenue consists of the costs of procuring, inspecting and storing material, and facility and depreciation costs; and is allocated to inventory, cost of product revenue, cost of contract revenue, and research and development expense based on the level of effort supporting production or research and development activities.

• The cost of product revenue as a percentage of product revenue can fluctuate significantly from period to period, depending on the product mix and volume and the level of overhead expense.

• The company ended the 2nd Qtr with $22.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and investment securities.

My main issue with this Financial Report is NOT so much about hitting the low end of Product Revenues… but it is the negative profit margins that are frustrating.

Microvision used lots of fancy words to simply explain the inventory markdowns leading to negative profit margins… meaning that every time Microvision sells a product, it takes a small loss. Since there is no corporate guidance, and investor questions on this issue were brushed aside, this “negative margins” issue has been exploited by the opportunistic and unscrupulous short traders in relentlessly driving down the price of Microvision stock over the last few weeks… and that is very frustrating.

Continues with the next post…

Microvision: Investors Are Just Frustrated

Anant Goel

Friday, July 30, 2010

Microvision: New Product Development Using IPM and PDE

On several occasions, Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, has stated that he doesn’t want the company to be just a commodity supplier of IPMs [Integrated Photonic Modules] and PDEs [PicoP Display Engines] to global consumer electronic firms. He wants to position the company as an applications and value –add powerhouse with a broad array of high margin products.

Here’s my take on the future at Microvision…

There are three areas that I would like to focus on…

1. SHOWwx is just the beginning of things to come

2. Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” vs. “Commodity” Technology

3. More Purchase Order to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production.

SHOWwx Just the Beginning of Things to Come:
On March 24th, Microvision started selling its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx to the US market… selling them directly; from its on-line web store for a handsome profit. When you sell directly; your margins are always better because of the savings in middleman’s commission. By the next earnings conference call; we should find out for sure what sales revenues and profit margins are from sale of SHOWwx.

At the 2010 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Microvision CEO confirmed the receipt of purchase orders worth $16.7 million dollars for SHOWwx and the ultra miniature PDE… and that is the part that confirms my view that SHOWwx and the $16.7 million in purchase orders is the just the beginning of things to come.

http://www.slideshare.net/lautiffany/microvision-asm-2010-highlights
[Note: Please review slide 21]

Here’s why…

Potential markets for laser based PicoP Display Engine technology is not only huge… but it is also a high margin market opportunity.

If you were to consider the high-end Media Player market alone… the possibilities are enormous…

Low Power Front Projection Media Players for the Third World Countries:

Think about 2.5 billion people in India and China... as they represent the potential buyers of a low power front projection portable TV/Media Player that offers a large screen [60'' to 100''] high definition always in focus vivid and bright color viewing experience. Extremely low ENERGY consumption [like 10 watts or less] and portability is the key market demand factor here. Energy will become more and more scarce and expensive by leaps and bounds…whereas the portability allows for sharing of resources among friends and family.

Low Power Front Projection Media Player for the Master Bedroom:

Think about a billion bedrooms globally that could use a ceiling projector... for adding another dimension to the various ways of media consumption for information and entertainment. We have desired the bedroom viewing of television for ever, so it seems, and some of us may have installed televisions in the bedroom. However, now it is possible to add, by the millions, a low power media player with built-in PicoP projector in our bedrooms… that offers short throw ratio, wide screen, high definition, bright and vivid color, and always in focus viewing experience. Media player/projector runs on low power batteries... so no risk of electrocuting yourself. No significant heat... so you won't burn yourself. No heavy duty TV to install on the bedroom wall.

Low Power Portable Projection Media Player for Every Bedroom in the House:

All you need is one portable Media Player with built-in PicoP projector… that gets moved around from room to room when and where it’s needed. It certainly is a cheaper alternative than buying a TV for each room of the house. This portable Media Player can also be the one you pack with your bags… when you are on the go.

Market Size for Portable Media Players with built-in PicoP Projectors is huge… like in billions world-wide. The most recent orders for $16.7 million from the Consumer Electronic companies are just the beginning of what’s to come... and not the end.

Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” vs. “Commodity” Technology:
Some have questioned the laser PicoP as “core” [like CPUs from Intel] vs. “commodity” technology [like cell phone touch screen and cameras].

My take on the subject is as follows...

The IPMs and PDEs [the generic version] are an enabling technology and therefore a commodity... no question about that.

However, laser PicoP is a core technology and that's how it is being positioned by Microvision. Pico technology from TI or 3M will not create [or capture] as large a market as laser PicoP would... due to inherent image quality and differenciating functionality [like always-in-focus] that is only possible due to lasers being used as the light source.

Microvision laser PicoP technology will capture its fair share of the captive markets but it would go-on-further and create markets that are only possible because of laser PicoP. And that's not the commodity markets by any means. Microvision recognizes that right from the beginning; and therefore is positioning the PicoP Display Engines accordingly… by using the “Image by PicoP” insignia on every thing related to its technology.

There will be others with laser pico technology down the road... and that's why Microvision is churning out these patents by the hundreds… to protect its IP turf. Also, the "Image by PicoP" is part of this marketing strategy that positions Microvision PicoP technology as a "core" and not "commodity" right from day one. From what I have seen, and there is plenty of evidence for you to see as well, Microvision is charging a premium price for its PicoP technology. Just look at SHOWwx Commercial Edition currently for sale at $549.

I hope you can appreciate the difference... because it’s worth billions of dollars when it is executed with knowledge, passion, and gumption

Currently, there are several products in development at Microvision… and two of the most visible ones are…

Video and Console Gaming:

Microvision’s wireless 720p laser pico projector-based game controller prototype is being developed in collaboration with Intel. Over the last year, we have heard so much about the “PicoP First-Person Shooter Gaming Gun Prototype” that addresses the multi-billion dollar gaming market.

http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1729

Laser Imaging and Laser Camera:

Microvision and Johnson & Johnson worked on this application for years… going back a few years ago.

Why has nothing ever come of this technology? J&J Ethicon has been working on an endoscope design for years with a number of patents that were awarded along the way. Nothing has ever come of this, I suppose, because they have been waiting on a RGB laser engine like the Microvision PDEs? And now that we have green lasers available, and the supply chain is ramping-up quickly, can we finally expect to see an endoscope or laser camera become reality?

Until recently, the Company was focused on bringing the SHOWwx to market and every thing else was on the back burner. Now that we have had a commercial launch of SHOWwx; and green laser technology and supply has improved, I see a renewed interest in the Laser Imaging and Laser Camera applications of Microvision IPM [photonic modules] and PDE [display engines]. Laser Imaging and Laser Camera is a multi-billion dollar market... and is a captive market for a cost effective innovative solution like what Microvision offers.

The following information is based on an article by a Microvision patent expert [Chris Wiklof, Director of patents from 2000-2006] that explains the Microvision’s Laser Camera concept. Richard Rutkowski, former CEO of Microvision, was a young hippie when this article was published, that's how old it is. There were two "camera" applications that he loved to talk about: confocal cameras and endoscopes, the latter got a lot of attention when Johnson & Johnson's Ethicon Endo division signed a contract with Microvision, back in 2005.
http://sis.windhover.com/buy/abstract.php?id=200520002&utm_source=company

Here’s the edited version of information on Microvision Laser Camera from the "past era of days gone by"…

Microvision has developed an innovative imaging platform that uses scanned beams of light and is in effect a versatile “laser camera.” Leveraging technology originally developed for its scanned-beam displays, like the laser projector SHOWwx, Microvision has developed a scanned-beam imaging [such as in laser endoscopes] design that meets demanding size constraints (5-mm total diameter) while also delivering good resolution (currently 720p HD). While recent developments have centered on biological and medical applications, the technology represents a unique and extensible imaging architecture that has applicability across a broad range of medical and non-medical markets, including barcode scanning, machine vision, microscopy, and scientific imaging.

In a conventional digital camera, a field of view is flood illuminated. A small portion of the illumination power impinges upon any particular spot. The rays that impinge upon the spot can be absorbed, transmitted, reflected, or scattered. A very small portion of the light scattered from the spot is imaged through a lens and aperture to a conjugate light-sensor element, where the photons are converted to electrons. To form an image, the process is repeated in parallel, with a small portion of light from each spot simultaneously imaged onto each of a typically large array of corresponding light sensors.

Compared to a conventional digital camera; a laser camera works in reverse. A laser beam illuminates a single spot while a large-numerical-aperture non-imaging detector receives the scattered light energy and converts it to an electrical signal. Because all the illumination energy falls on the particular spot of interest, there is no need to form a conjugate image plane and no need to exclude light from elsewhere in the field of view with a lens and aperture. To form an image, the process is repeated sequentially, moving the beam to illuminate the next spot and the scattered energy is again measured.

Comparing the two technologies, one can see that the direction of light propagation is reversed. Whereas the resolution-determining step in a conventional digital camera involves selectively receiving light energy from a spot, the resolution-determining step in a laser camera involves selectively illuminating a spot. The reversal of the rays does not affect the final image; for example, a spot that looks semitransparent and pinkish to a conventional digital camera looks semitransparent and pinkish to a laser camera.

Whereas conventional digital photography places a technology burden on the CCD or CMOS sensor array, laser photography requires a high-performance beam scanner. The beam scanner must be able to scan at high frequency to provide a high frame rate. Microvision currently uses proprietary single-crystal bulk-micro-machined silicon Micro Electro Mechanical System (MEMS) scanner technology developed for its scanned-beam pico projector.

Here’s the link to information on CCD and CMOS senor array used in digital cameras:

http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/cameras-photography/digital/question362.htm

Unique Attributes of Laser Camera:

A laser camera is intrinsically self-illuminating, which means that a laser camera cannot capture daylight images taken at long distances. Instead, a laser camera is a strong candidate to capture images at moderate to short distances, and especially high-magnification images. While daylight does not interfere with a laser camera’s operation─ the beam scan rate is so high that the processor simply ignores DC light levels and rejects noise from artificial illumination─ it also does not help it. The image captured by the laser camera is one produced by the laser camera’s scanned beam. Thus, a laser camera will not capture the appearance of speckled sunlight transmitted through leaves. Instead, the laser camera will capture the appearance of a leaf as viewed from the perspective of the light source.

Though not suitable for general-purpose, like ambient-light photography, a laser camera has many attributes that are valuable to a range of medical, commercial and scientific applications.

• No motion blur: Because the dwell time that the beam remains on any given spot is very short (about 20 ns); there is virtually no motion blur evident in any one pixel for most types of images. Thus, it is possible to capture fast moving objects without requiring complex and bulky strobe illumination. Movement in the image that occurs during the frame time will be expressed as a skewing of the image, an artifact that can be removed during image processing.

• Controlled specular reflection: Because the illumination source is a point, the amount of specular reflection [cause of glare] in the image can be reduced significantly. For example, with a ring illuminator typically used for close-up conventional photography; many subjects exhibit a white halo that washes out important details. With a laser camera, even though the detector occupies a relatively large area, glare is virtually nonexistent.

• Small and self-contained laser camera with illumination: Whereas a conventional sensor array must occupy an area large enough to fit its pixels, a laser camera only requires a small sensor area and a scanning mirror. A scanning laser endoscope [for example] capable of 720p resolution is only 5 mm in diameter. Furthermore, because a laser camera is self-illuminating, all the necessary components can be placed in a single package, thus requiring no field engineering to select, install, and adjust a light source. Such a small and self-contained package is useful for many medical, scientific, and industrial applications.

• Long range/large depth of field: Because there is virtually no light lost from the illumination beam, a laser camera has greater range than the illumination range of a conventional digital camera. Similarly, conventional systems using artificial illumination at long range are typically operated with a relatively large aperture to maximize light collection, resulting in reduced depth of field. Conversely, a laser camera detector does not image the returned light and there is no need for an aperture. The laser illumination beam of a laser camera can be substantially collimated across a wide range of applications such that focus stays constant with distance, resulting in significantly improved depth of field.

• Wavelength agility: If the passband of a conventional digital camera filter is narrowed, the amount of light reaching a detector is severely reduced, resulting in a low signal-to-noise ratio. Conversely, the laser illuminators typically used with a laser camera have a very narrow spectral width. This allows the system designer to select particular wavelengths with which to probe and image the field of view. Depending upon individual system architecture, it is possible to allow for a large number of imaging wavelengths, a property that lends the laser camera high specificity with respect to dye or pigment measurements. This may be especially useful in advanced medical and scientific techniques such as photodynamic therapy.

• Large color gamut: Because of the narrow spectral width of the illumination sources, a laser camera’s color sensitivity is placed closer to the perimeter of a C.I.E. chromaticity diagram than the wider band filters used by a conventional digital camera to separate colors. This results in a larger triangle (for an RGB, three-color system) within the color space, which results in the ability to capture greener greens, redder reds, and bluer blues… giving higher 200% NTSC rating to Microvision laser PDEs.

• Variable field of view: The laser camera’s field of view consists of the range of spots to which the scanner directs the illumination beam and is thus determined by the drive waveform delivered to the scanner. Thus, lossless electronic zoom and variable aspect ratio may be achieved by dynamic modification of the scanner drive.

• High magnification: A laser camera’s magnification can be quite high, depending upon beam shape. For example, the laser-beam waist can be made quite small and the scan angle reduced to produce a high-magnification image of a small field of view. By placing a beam splitter between the light-beam source and the scan mirror, and picking off a return image, the laser camera can be easily configured as a tiny confocal microscope and deliver magnification sufficient to resolve embedded objects a few hundred nanometers in diameter or map the surface profile of an integrated circuit.

Laser Camera ─ the New Frontier

The laser-camera technology offers many new performance capabilities and benefits by exploiting a fundamentally new architecture for capturing images. These capabilities, taken individually or in combination, are expected to open a new design frontier for imaging systems with requirements that cannot be cost-effectively met by conventional integrated matrix imagers… in this multi-billion dollar market.

Anant Goel

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Microvision: To Report 2nd Qtr Earnings on August 5th

Based on past history and unconfirmed reports, Microvision 2nd Qtr earning conference call is currently scheduled for August 5th.

Here’s the link to unconfirmed report on earnings conference call…
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/mvis_microvision-inc-mvis-corporate-event-announcement-notice-1051076.html

This 2nd Qtr earnings report, in my opinion, would be the most significant milestone in the history of Microvision because…

“… after 14 years of R&D, and having spent over $350 million dollars, the company will finally be in an enviable position to report revenues from product sales for an entire Qtr… and based on what’s reported, the entire financial future of this company─ and its stockholders, may take shape for the foreseeable future.”

The most important number to watch would be the “recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr”.

That’s correct, the “recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010”.

Granted, the backorders; profit margins; patents & awards; contracts & agreements; and future product introductions do count, but then again who knows for sure what the future would bring, and if the delivery would be made at profitable margins in the near term.

However, what do count, at this stage of commercial product introduction, are the actual sales of SHOWwx laser pico projector to consumers… indicating current demand to be over or below the current available green lasers, and the actual sales of PEKs/PDEs to OEMs… indicating future interest in the second generation embedded IPMs.

Having said that, let’s take a look at some projections for 2nd Qtr product revenues…

First of all, let me warn you that it is not easy to model product revenues for a company like Microvision because…

“For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade in March 2010, the Microvision management team is awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales.”

With that in mind, and taking all the plausible scenarios into consideration, I’m looking at $1,900,000 to $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010.

That’s the bottom line from my vantage point and I’ll spare you the details.

Now, here we go with the analysis…

• Anything less than $1,900,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of poor sales… that are not necessarily held back by green laser availability? Current events and management changes taking place at Microvision point more to this revenue number than anything higher.

• Anything more than $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of robust sales that leverage green laser availability to its fullest… and could have been better if more green lasers were available. The probability of this happening is low… but we can hope, can’t we?

These numbers are based on some complex modeling and are very subjective to one man’s opinion… in this case, it’s mine!

How the investors would react to this sort of news is anybody’s guess!

However, one thing is for sure…

Investors don’t like the lack of any significant news for extended periods of time and they react by selling [and short selling] the Microvision stock. Just in one week, a few weeks ago after the Annual Shareholders Meeting, the MVIS stock price dropped by 30% [down from $3.60 to $2.64]. This kind of price drop, it seems, has become a norm for Microvision stock after every Qtr earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meeting.

Lack of news; or any visible signs of product promotion, marketing, or sales does not build confidence in Microvision business model… and as a result, more and more investors [and supporters] abandon the MVIS stock every time there is carnage in its market price.

I don’t know if the Microvision corporate management realizes how important the MVIS investors are to the well being, survival, and future prosperity of their [our] company?

I didn’t think that I would ever say this; but after years of holding MVIS stock and taking my share of loses as the perpetual LONG.…

• Microvision stock has no backbone; and shows strength only when it receives attention from management lip service at times of needs for additional funding or before the quarterly earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meetings.

• MVIS stock has, time and again, proven that it is the Trader’s and professional Short’s trading panacea to making money while the Longs have been the perpetual losers.

To make the long story short, here’s what I would recommend to my friends, family, or anyone who chooses to preserve their investment capital rather than squander it on this perpetual dream machine…

“Buy low and sell high… and trade… trade… trade”

Anant Goel

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Microvision: Unveils Increased Brightness, 720p HD Ready Laser Pico Projector

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday May 24, 2010, 6:31 am EDT

REDMOND, Wa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products announced today that it plans to demonstrate a 720p HD ready laser pico projector at The Society For Information Display annual conference, May 25 – 27, at the Washington State Convention Center in Seattle, Washington.

The 720p prototype pico projector outputs 15 lumens of brightness while still maintaining its compact, low profile form factor, very similar to Microvision’s current WVGA product. The company plans a commercial product version of a 720p HD PicoP display engine in the second half of 2011.

The new 720p, higher brightness prototype highlights the capability of PicoP® technology to support new performance levels while still maintaining the compelling attributes of the existing PicoP platform, including:

• Infinite focus;
• Wide throw angle that offers an immersive visual experience;
• Superior brightness uniformity;
• High optical efficiency resulting in low power requirements;
• 5000:1 contrast ratio; and
• Vivid colors of up to 200% greater than standard broadcast television

“Microvision’s growing success is rooted in our ability to anticipate market needs and proactively innovate and push the limits of our technology to address them,” stated Alexander Tokman, president and CEO. “On behalf of our entire design team, I’m extremely proud to introduce the world’s first 720p laser pico projector demonstrator that fits in the palm of your hand.”

Mr. Tokman added: “Our customers are looking for best-in-class pico projection solutions and we believe that with our demonstrated ability to advance both resolution and brightness on our core PicoP platform, Microvision will continue to be recognized as the premier provider of customer focused solutions in this exciting new product category.”

In addition to the 720p demonstrator, Microvision also plans to showcase the following developer tools, product and application demonstrations at SID in Booth 1401:

Continues…
*****
Here’s the link to the Press Release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Unveils-Increased-bw-20446400.html?x=0&.v=1

The company demonstratd the 720p HD laser Pico Projector at SID Conference. In addition to that, Microvision showcased portable gaming, automotive and wearable display applications that were enabled by its current PicoP Display Engine technology.

The commercial opportunities presented by the 720p PicoP projector at 15 lumens of brightness; while still maintaining its compact, low profile form factor, is huge. The current WVGA product SHOWwx ─ at 848x480 resolution and 10 lumen brightness─ has awed the early adopters. The next generation products─ using 720p resolution and 15 lumen brightness PicoP Display Engines─ will surely delight the masses when introduced in the second half of 2011.

To fully appreciate the implications of going to 720p resolution at 15 lumens brightness in the next generation products; you have to own and use the current first generation SHOWwx… to be first amazed and awed.

To further appreciate the impact and value of 720p resolution at 15 lumen brightness; let’s review the history of broadcast to put the image resolution in proper perspective…

Back in the technological dark ages of the late 20th Century, NTSC television signals were broadcast in a resolution now called 480i… in the U.S., while the rest of the world had adopted differing standards.

"480" signifies the number of horizontal lines that make up a single frame of video. The "i" stands for "interlaced," which is a system that delivers a frame of video in two fields. Interlacing was adopted back in the 1950s to overcome limited transmission bandwidth. If you can remember that far back, all TV was broadcast over antennas.

Interlacing has never been a great solution because it does not offer the best image quality. In a movie theater, film is presented one full frame at a time, which is called progressive, or simply “p”.

Until high definition came on the scene, 480i─ now often labeled standard definition or SD─ was the way that every TV set in the U.S. worked. We lived with these NTSC standards for almost fifty years. As technology and marketing marched on, researchers, manufacturers and broadcasters took a two-pronged approach to producing a better quality video image.

First, they increased the resolution of the video signal and the TVs receiving them. Though there are many different choices in the ATSC standard, the two common resolutions are called 720 and 1080. Again, resolution is denoted by the horizontal lines in a frame. Instead of the old 480, these new standards produce 720 or 1080 horizontal lines. Actually, resolution is measured in both directions, vertically and horizontally. So, you may see them listed as 1280 x 720 and 1920 x 1080. If you do the math, these are both 16 x 9 formats.

[Note: ATSC is a set of standards developed by the Advanced Television Systems Committee for digital television transmission. ATSC replaced much of the analog NTSC television system in the United States on June 12, 2009 and will replace NTSC by August 31, 2011 in Canada.]

The simple formula is more lines of resolution = a higher quality (or we can call it a higher definition) image. Of course, nothing is simple in these HD days. The second factor in improving image quality is shifting the signal to a progressive format. Broadcasters have split on the idea of transmitting video progressively. Those who do, use the 720p format. Those who don't, opt for 1080i. Video experts, Joe Kane among many others, believe that progressive can out trump video resolution to the extent they prefer 720p over 1080i.

Of course, in the last few years, manufacturers are beginning to grace us with 1080p HDTVs. Which brings us back to the original question? If you have been following along with our HD calculus, the answer seems pretty obvious: “p” is better than “i”, and 1080 is higher than 720. No argument there… just give me the 1080p.

Well, here's the rub…

In the United States, 1080p over the air broadcasts still do not exist as of 2010; and all major networks use either 720p60 or 1080i60 encoded with MPEG-2. Satellite service providers though have many channels that utilize the 1080p/24-30 format… for example Direc TV, XstreamHD, and Dish Network.

If you mostly watch network television, and that includes ESPN HD and the premium channels like HBO HD, the best you will receive is 720p or 1080i.

Now, if your tastes run to high definition DVDs, then you will have better luck finding 1080p material in the stores. You may even see a lot of classic movies reissued in 1080p format now that the HD DVD / Blu-ray format war has been settled… with Blu ray taking the honors.

[All Blu-ray Disc and the now defunct HD DVD are able to hold 1080p HD content such as movies. Most movies released on Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD can produce a full 1080p High Defiition picture when the player is connected to a 1080p HDTV with an HDMI cable. However, the Blu-ray Disc video specification only allows encoding of up to 1080p24 signal.]

One more thing you should be aware of; and that is the native resolution. Almost every new HDTV will advertise that it handles 1080p, but that does not mean that its native resolution is 1080p. A 720p TV/monitor [or projector] can display 1080p sources. They just have to downscale the image.

Now if you think about it, content is available in a range of formats, 480i, 720p, 1080i, and 1080p. Your HDTV or HD projector can handle all of them through technical tricks of up-scaling or down-scaling and interlacing or de-interlacing. Not to mention how well it translates native 24 frames per second films to 30 frames per second video.

The theory of course is that a 1080p native resolution TV [or projector] will handle 1080p sources more cleanly than other lower native resolution TVs. But if the TVs [or projectors] are doing their job well, most non-hypercritical viewers will not be able to tell the difference between a 720p and a 1080p TV when watching 1080p programs.

The real test may, however, be how well a 1080p TV handles the more common lower resolution material?

One more consideration, 1080p is currently the leading edge technology… but for how long?

If you are buying an HDTV in the next few months, then supposedly purchasing a 1080p TV should future proof you for a little while!

But technology is on a roll, which feeds marketing's insatiable appetite for new products.

Expect your state of the art 1080p HDTV to be old news in the next year or two. True HD will be replaced by too good to be true Full HD… and that will morph into wallet busting eye popping Ultra HD.

You get my drift, yes?

In a year or so, I expect to hear Microvision coming out with 1080p resolution at 28 lumen brightness PicoP Display Engine; to support new performance levels while still maintaining the compelling attributes of the existing PicoP platform. 

It is then, that I expect the 1080p resolution and 28 lumens bright PicoP Display Engines to be at the heart of front end media projectors; and selling for a few hundred dollars to give the energy guzzling 1080p HDTVs the run for their money… or should I say: “run for their life”.

Anant Goel
[Long List of Credits]

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Microvision: Pico Projector Consumer is Well and Alive

Economists and investors cheered the 2nd Qtr 2010 earnings results from Apple Inc. (AAPL), saying it was a sign that the global consumer is alive and well. The company sold a mind boggling 2.94 million Mac PCs, 10.89 million iPods, and close to 8.75 million iPhones in a three-month time span. And these numbers do not include the 3 million iPads sold since April.

First, here’re the Apple numbers for the 2nd Qtr 2010…

• Total sales: $13.5 billion, up 48.6% year over year
• Earnings: $3.33 per share. up 86%
• Profit: $3.07 billion, up 89.5%
• Mac sales: 2.94 million units, up 33%
• iPhone sales: 8.75 million units, up 131%
• iPod sales: 10.89 million units, down 1%
• iPod touch sales: up 66%; iPod revenue up 12%
• Apple store visitors: 47 million in 286 retail outlets, up 20%
• Gross margin: 41.7%, up from 39.9% last year
• Cash and marketable securities: $41.7 billion, up $1.9 billion since December
• Guidance for the third fiscal quarter: revenue between $13 and $13.4 billion, EPS between $2.28 and $2.39, gross margin 36%

Wow, that doesn’t sound like a recession. But is that really good news or is there something unnerving about all that spending in this harsh recession that we should be concerned about?

Could it be that people spent money in a haphazard manner? Or they spent money [just to keep-up with the Jones] when they really should have been saving?

Either way, I expect the laser based PicoP Projector to follow the same buying pattern as the iPods, iPhones, and iPads.

[Note: Just to be sure we are on the same page; let me qualify that statement with a caveat… it’s the first second half of 2011 that I’m talking about; when the green lasers have become plentiful and their price has come down significantly from the current levels.]

Here’s a story [that I read somewhere] to explain why…

“In the 1970s, Harlem was one of the poorest neighborhoods in the nation, but it was a money making machine for people selling expensive clothes, sneakers, and cars. Before it opened, there was much concern that a McDonald’s in the hood would be an abject failure.

As it turns out, the first McDonald’s in Harlem became the number one selling restaurant for the chain in the entire world for years. Back then, there were street vendors who lived in the community and the money they made circulated among the people that earned it. However, for the most part it was like there was a giant vacuum cleaning hose sucking up all disposable, and not-so-disposable, money out of the hood.

Nothing was more peculiar than the need to own “Air Jordan” sneakers. Mothers that scrubbed floors for minimum wage had to drop $200 to make sure their children fit-in and were part of the hip crowd. Households that sustained themselves on welfare checks also felt the same pressure. Demand for these overpriced shoes never waned even after waves of violence, even murder, was being committed to own them. It was the ultimate status symbol, one that made you cool and one that also made you a potential candidate for the morgue. It was American consumerism at its best. It brought out what John Maynard Keynes called “animal spirits.” The desire to own these ultra expensive sneakers also brought out what sociologists might also brand “animal spirits”, too.

After fueling the growth of the world for decades, it is clear that the American consumer is now struggling. One lesson we’ve all learned over the years is that prosperity can be fleeting. In fact, in a blink of an eye it seems like all of our wealth vanished and somehow landed in China. It’s such a fascinating reversal of fortunes, but it underscores the notion of fiscal prudence. Those “Air Jordan” sneakers that were all the rage in Harlem were made by peasants in China whose annual income was so small they couldn’t afford to live [in Harlem] for one week. China isn’t the financial juggernaut it is because there are 1.3 billion people there; the cheap labor source of the world belies the notion of becoming wealthy. Their secret was saving. Saving money for years, living on the bare minimum, fixated on the future.

With that in mind, iPods, iPhones, and iPads are today’s “Air Jordan” sneakers… hip, stylish, and must have gadgets… but not a necessity.

Stuff We (don’t) Need but Must Have:

Ironically, the Pew Research Center released its latest survey on things that the public believes are  necessities. The results are somewhat shocking. There were huge percentage decreases for clothes dryers, home air conditioning (maybe it will be higher in July than April), television sets, and microwaves. In fact, there were only a few items listed that more people believe are necessities now versus 2006. High speed internet access increased 2%, but only 31% said it was a necessity. Flat screen televisions increased the most, up 3%. Then, there were those iPods, again, increasing 1% to 4%. Like many surveys, much could be made of the results. On one hand, it could suggest less materialism.

But this list isn’t about chasing the Jones; rather it’s about basic stuff that is within reach of most Americans… like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. There is no doubt that income, or lack thereof, played a major role as respondents are certainly feeling the pinch. A whopping 57% said that they’ve bought less expensive brands or shopped more at discount stores… this is evident in the moves of stocks such as Family Dollar Store, 99 Cents Only Stores, and CitiTrends. Perhaps a silver lining is the 28% that said they’ve cut back on alcohol and cigarettes.

Here’s the link to Pew Research Center survey database…

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/395.pdf

There are so many other things people are doing to adjust to their current circumstances. The sharp decline in what people think they need, however, is remarkable. Maybe there is something else afoot in this story.

Still, there is another way to look at the results. In some ways I believe that people may be taking many things for granted… things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. I kind of lean that way, and it’s not just that we think an air conditioner is less important but some people think we don’t need more ships and jet fighters to protect us. Heck, this weekend we fired up the air conditioners in our house. If asked a week earlier I may have been inclined to say air conditioning wasn’t a necessity, but after a two hour bike ride in the blazing sun I felt like a walking volcano and at that moment the ice cube maker and AC were right up there with Guttenberg’s printing press as the greatest inventions ever.

One of the side effects of a horrific economic slide is a sense of defeat as well. However, we can’t be so down in the dumps as to become vulnerable to so many things, including the shifting away from the things that made the nation great in the first place… our innovation and the high tech industry to fuel the future prosperity.”

Yes, I do expect to see the global consumers buying millions upon millions of more iPods, iPhones, iPads… and of course, the PicoP projectors.

The next popular product categories that integrate PicoP projectors would be fixed and mobile computing devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as smartphones, digital photo frames, personal media players, digital cameras, and digital camcorders.

“As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded picoprojectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat.

In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that pico projectors will become part and parcel of billions of relatively low cost cell phones and media players.

“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.

The future for pico projectors is guaranteed since there is evidence of consumers willing to pay more for additional technologies such as good quality cameras, reported TMCnet, to be included in a single hand held mobile device.

Anant Goel
[Edited By]

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Microvision: One More Purchase Order in Next Two Weeks?

First, the good news…

Microvision Completes Design of New PicoP Laser Display Engine for Mobile Embedded Applications

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday March 29, 2010, 7:29 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has completed the design and begun shipping initial evaluation samples to several prospective customers of its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine.

Continues…
*****
Here’s the link…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Completes-Design-bw-3543654902.html?x=0&.v=1

Then, the exciting news…

Microvision Receives $8.5 Million Purchase Order for New PicoP Laser Projection Display Engine

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday April 5, 2010, 7:06 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has received an $8.5 million purchase order for its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine from a consumer electronics customer. The OEM plans to embed the PicoP engine inside a high-end mobile media player for release in late 2010 and plans to announce its launch at that time.

Continues…
*****
Here’s the link…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Receives-85-bw-2670010777.html?x=0&.v=1

Now for some projections [pun intended] into the future…

There are four areas that I would like to focus on…

1. SHOWwx was just the beginning of things to come

2. Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology

3. More Purchase Order to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production.

4. Case for brighter [like 20 lumens] PicoP Display Engines for the embedded version.

SHOWwx Just the Beginning of Things to Come:
On March 24th, Microvision started selling its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx to the US market… selling them directly; from its on-line web store for a handsome profit. When you sell directly; your margins are always better because of the savings in middleman’s commission. By the next earnings conference call; we would find out for sure what sales revenue and profit margins are from on-line sale of SHOWwx.

On April 5th, Microvision confirmed the receipt of a purchase order for $8.5 million dollars for its ultra miniature PDE… and that is the part that confirms my view that SHOWwx and the $8.5 million purchase order is the just the beginning of things to come.

Here’s why…
Potential markets for laser based PicoP Display Engine technology is not only huge… but it is also a high margin market opportunity. If you were to consider the high-end Media Player market alone… the possibilities are enormous…

Low Power Front Projection Media Players for the Third World Countries:

Think about 2.5 billion people in India and China... as they represent the potential buyers of a low power front projection portable TV/Media Player that offers a large screen [40'' to 100''] high definition always in focus vivid and bright color viewing experience. Extremely low ENERGY consumption [like 10 watts or less] and portability is the key market demand factor here. Energy will become more and more scarce and expensive by leaps and bounds…whereas the portability allows for sharing of resources among friends and family.

Low Power Front Projection Media Player for the Master Bedroom:

Think about a billion bedrooms globally that could use a ceiling projector... for adding another dimension to the various ways of media consumption for information and entertainment. We have desired the bedroom viewing of television for ever, so it seems, and some of us may have installed televisions in the bedroom. However, now it is possible to add, by the millions, a low power media player with built-in PicoP projector in our bedrooms… that offers short throw ratio, wide screen, high definition, bright and vivid color, and always in focus viewing experience. Media player/projector runs on low power batteries... so no risk of electrocuting yourself. No significant heat... so you won't burn yourself. No heavy duty TV to install on the bedroom wall.

Low Power Portable Projection Media Player for Every Bedroom in the House:

All you need is one portable Media Player with built-in PicoP projector… that gets moved around from room to room when and where it’s needed. It certainly is a cheaper alternative than buying a TV for each room of the house. This portable Media Player can also be the one you pack with your bags… when you are on the go.

Market Size for Portable Media Players with built-in PicoP Projectors is huge… like in billions world-wide. The most recent order for $8.5 million from the Consumer Electronic Company is just the beginning of what’s to come and not the end.

Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology:
Some have questioned the laser PicoP as “core” technology [like CPUs from Intel] vs. “commodity” technology [like cell phone touch screen and cameras].

My take on the subject is as follows...

Picop [the generic version] is an enabling technology and therefore a commodity... no question about that.

However, laser PicoP is a core technology and that's how it is being positioned by Microvision. Picop technology from TI or 3M will not create [or capture] as large a market as laser PicoP would... due to inherent image quality and functionality only possible due to lasers being used as the light source.

Microvision laser PicoP technology will capture its fair share of the captive markets but it would go-on-further and create markets that are only possible because of laser PicoP. And that's not the commodity markets by any means. Microvision recognizes that right from the beginning; and therefore is positioning the PicoP Display Engines accordingly… by using the “Image by PicoP” insignia on every thing related to its technology.

There will be others with laser picop technology down the road... and that's why Microvision is churning out these patents by the dozens… to protect its IP turf. Also, the "Image by PicoP" is part of this marketing strategy that positions Microvision PicoP technology as a "core" and not "commodity" right from day one. From what I have seen, and there is plenty of evidence for you to see as well, Microvision is charging a premium price for its PicoP technology. Just look at SHOWwx Limited Edition sold at $999 and the Commercial Edition currently for sale at $549.

I hope you can appreciate the difference... because it’s worth billions of dollars when it is executed with knowledge, passion, and gumption.

More Purchase Orders to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production:
If there was another Purchase Order next week, would that convince you that Osram and Corning are ramping-up production of their green lasers faster than expected?

Here’s what I’m thinking…

Many OEMs have sampled the first version PEKs from last year. Now the second generation PEKs, for embedded applications, are going out and dramatically improve upon what has been tested before! I believe that the embedded version of the PicoP Display Engine is brighter [over 20 lumens], smaller and consumes less energy.

In other words, time to market for these OEMs has collapsed to a point that few more may be interested in bringing PicoP embedded digital devices to the market for the coming Christmas season. I don’t think the Japanese and Koreans are going to let APPLE hog all the discretionary income of the America consumer for the iPad.

The case for brighter PicoP Display Engine for Embedded Application…
Corning has been slow to ramp-up due to improvements in their SHG green laser technology… that is the switch from “wave guided SHG laser” to “SIDM-based adaptive optics SHG laser” technology. I remember, from a year ago in a conversation with the Corning Product Manager, that G-2000 green laser would incorporate enhancements leading to brighter pictures… with a target goal of 20 lumens or better.

Here’re some links…

Corning G-1000 laser design [at 10 lumens with 10:1 contrast ratio] and the SIDM-based adaptive optics technology…
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=14329

Corning G-2000 laser pumps more lumens [like 23 lumens] at a reduced contrast ratio of 3:1 …
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=12733

Corning licked its waveguided SHG laser production issues last year by switching over to SIDM-based adaptive optics technology.

This year, Corning is the wild card with its contrast optimized green laser at 23 lumens.

Microvision future is bright and is getting brighter every day… just like its laser PicoP Display Engine.

Higher stock valuation will come in time… just like the HD resolution on its PicoP projection images.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/