Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Microvision: Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On Monday March 8, 2010, 4:20 pm EST

Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010

Company Announces U.S. Introduction of SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector, Availability of Second Commercial Supply for Green Laser, New Purchase Orders, and Additions to Management Team

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2009 and its plans for 2010.

Continued…
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Here’s the link to the full earnings report…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100308006744&newsLang=en

Last three years, especially the year 2009, has been the most frustrating period for Microvision corporate management… mainly due to delays caused by over optimistic green laser production schedule by Corning. However, after 30 months of delay due to technical and production problems, the issues are finally behind us and Microvision has officially launched the world first laser based PicoP projector in the US today.

After the market close on March 8th, Microvision management presented the quarterly/yearly earnings report. After looking at the details of SHOWwx laser PicoP projector launch from this morning and then listing to earnings conference call, I could not help but feel that today is the day when Microvision really went public with an IPO.

Microvision: Goes Public with an IPO… March 8th 2010

Now that I have your attention, consider this…

If Microvision were to have an IPO right after the SHOWwx launch in the US today followed by a very bullish earnings conference call… the IPO price would be more like $20 if not higher.

We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.

Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, huge backlog, ramping-up production forecasts, improving margins, and glowing recognition by industry; like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.60.

Looks like the shorts have you all spooked, doubting yourself, and in knots over in-decision.

One of the issues, if you would call it that, the shorts will “harp on” and have you believe is about low future revenues and insignificant margins.

Well, let’s set the record straight here, shall we…

Many folks don’t realize that the green laser unit forecasts Alex presented at the CC; they do not include any green laser contribution from Osram. Osram green lasers have been validated but production quantities are not yet shipping in any significant quantities… and as such are not part of the unit number forecast presented at the conference call.

Osram green lasers are the surprise factor; both in terms of higher production volumes─ higher than what Alex has projected from Corning and dramatic overall cost reduction due to cheaper Osram green lasers.

The good news─ in the short term, that Alex talked about in his closing remarks, in my opinion, is all about Osram starting to ship production quantities of green lasers as early as the last week of March. Osram green lasers are much cheaper and have much better yields. That’s the surprise factor that Alex alluded to in his closing remarks at the CC.

Be aware of the competitors, shorts and unscrupulous stock traders; when they bash the SHOWwx revenue and profit margins to justify their agenda… whatever form or shape it takes.

Consider this…

• Profit margins on SHOWwx that have been shipped are better than what you may think [or are made to believe] by just looking at 4th Qtr “product sale revenue” vs. the “product COG” numbers. First, the initial batch of product shipped is very small… few hundreds at the most, and that is not a large enough sample to base future trends.

Second, the cost of about 50 or so demo units in the hands and homes of Microvision executives has cost but no revenue. That hurts the revenue numbers and skews the COG numbers as much higher than they really are.

• Profit margins and revenues will dramatically increase─ over and above what they truly are at present, as soon as Osram starts shipping their better and cheaper green lasers in production quantities… as early as the end of March.

• Profit margins are dramatically higher [over 300%] on the Limited Edition SHOWwx that are for sale in the US today.

• Profit margins are substantially higher [over 100%] on the Commercial Edition SHOWwx that will be for sale in the US on March 24th.

There is no better way to say it, than to say it as it really is…

“Alex Tokman, in his closing remarks at the CC, alluded to two pieces of good news coming up: one in the short term [like in weeks] and the other in the mid term."

The short term good news, in my opinion, is about Osram shipping production quantities of their green lasers to Microvision… and that will more than double the forecasted SHOWwx quantities that can be shipped at much better profit margins.

In closing…

Be aware of the competitors, shorts, manipulators, and the unscrupulous operators that would like you to believe that the future revenues and profit margins as insignificant… because, by having you believe that and then manipulate you to sell would serve their agenda to short Microvision.

So why don’t you guys just wake-up, believe in yourselves and stop playing into the hands of unscrupulous shorts.

Be an educated investor and go about making some serious money in the near future.

Stop playing for nickels and dimes… only kids do that with too much time on their hands.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

2 comments:

  1. If you listen to him [Alex] again... he contradicts himself and goes on in his usual way to confuse the issue.

    If you want to find out something as important as forecast for green lasers from Osram... you go to the source of information. Osram green lasers have been validated... right, but production units have not yet shipped in any significant quantities. How on earth can they forecast future yields when they haven't finished completely what they are doing? When Osram is done and comes-up with a great production ramp along with cheaper cost for the green laser, that will be the good new in the short term.

    The good news in the short term that Alex alluded to is not an order from Apple or any such thing. It is production quantities and cheaper green lasers from Osram. What this good news in the offing do you think it is? Any good news about another contract or purchase order is not really any news, let alone good news, if Microvision can’t even ship the 40,000 units currently on backlog.

    Thing about it!

    Send an e-mail to Alex... and see what he says to clarify the "Osram GL included" vs. the "Osram GL not included" question.

    Forecasts can only be based on what's provided to Microvision.

    Osram has provided "no" production forecasts yet.

    Corning is the only company that is shipping initial production quantities... with a forecast in hand based on their somewhat predictable yields.

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  2. Plus there is no demand for a 10 lumen device at over $500 which has to be connected to another source for content. You have to use it in a completely dark room to get a reasonable sized image. Infinite focus is nice, but there are LED/lcos products that are much brighter, with longer battery life and content/file viewers on-board that cost hundreds less. I predict despite growing awareness this product will be a very low volume seller - certainly not enough profit to move the needle on MVIS burn rate or need to raise more cash soon.

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