Dear Mr. Tokman:
Considering the further delays and continued issues with executing the green laser based product business plan, please consider cutting the overhead by at least 70%.
Smart money investors have already sold-off and left! Why continue with a burn rate that reflects high levels of product development and sales activity... when there is none? I say this after looking at [and not finding anything other than SHOWwx] at the CES 2010 show. And yes, I also looked at the on-line interview at least ten times... just to be sure that I got the intended message right.
Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx has been around for almost two years now and is already an old technology... so to speak. Granted, that laser based pico projectors will be a huge success someday... but that day or for that matter that year is not this year to put it bluntly.
It is time to take control of this green laser nonsense that has been making rounds for the last two years and explore alternate technologies such as pico projectors that work with slow modulating green lasers.
With the existing laser light technology as it is today, it is stretching the technology envelop little too far to achieve SHG green lasers that can reliably modulate at 100MHz. Also, you may have experienced success with MEMS mirrors with carbon fiber torsion arms that can modulate fast enough today... but what happens to them a year or two from now is anybody’s guess. Materials fatigue and fail at exponential rate at the high end of the stress cycle.
For God’s sake control costs and think survival over the next two years when technology will be ready to support your currently demanding product specifications.
Also, the embedded pico projectors could be the ultimate goal for mass adoption and profitability in the future... but the standalone SHOWwx and its derivatives can still make Microvision profitable this year.
Warm regards,
Anant Goel
Beaten, bruised and humbled investor of Microvision
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Simply wow.
ReplyDeleteHow arrogant you are to presume you know so much more about how to run Microvision, let alone a business in general, than Alex.
"Smart money investors have already sold-off and left!"
Really? How do you know this. You do realize that had you bought MVIS a year ago you'd still be outperforming the S&P 500, right? You are being a chicken little, crying that the sky is falling.
"Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx has been around for almost two years now and is already an old technology... so to speak."
Really? We are all waiting for a green laser that a year ago didn't even exist and now you're calling the ShowWx an old technology?
"Granted, that laser based pico projectors will be a huge success someday..."
So stop being such a daytrader! If you call yourself an investor, then INVEST! If you believe that laser based pico projectors will succeed, and Microvision is the only manufacturer of laser based pico projectors,...well....
"It is time to take control of this green laser nonsense that has been making rounds for the last two years and explore alternate technologies such as pico projectors that work with slow modulating green lasers."
First you say Alex needs to cut overhead by 70%, and now you're saying that even there we are closer than we've ever been to getting a supply of green lasers, to start burning through MORE money exploring other technologies?
Anant, you do an incredible disservice to investors of Microvision. Here you've setup a blog dedicated to Microvision and present yourself as some authority on both the company and its technology. You are not. You are just some guy with a blog whose posts are either euphoric or gloom and doom depending on what Microvision's share price does that day.
Grow some effing balls.
Nothing like finishing-off the PPS eh?
ReplyDeleteHow much volume this year would make you change you opinion?
ReplyDeleteCould you be more specific about the “opinion” part?
ReplyDeleteIf you mean the green lasers... over 120,000 in 2010 would mean stable and improving yields validating the underlying technology platform.
Response Part 1:
ReplyDeleteI thought about discarding your comments as insults made by someone with an axe to grind and attack me personally... rather than comments that want to focus on the substance of my post. On second thought, I decided to publish your snide remarks disguised as comments to my post.
Here we go...
YOU:
Simply wow.
How arrogant you are to presume you know so much more about how to run Microvision, let alone a business in general, than Alex.
MY RESPONSE:
No, I’m not running Microvision... Alex Tokman is. Tone of my post is not arrogant... merely a statement of facts as I see them. You may not like my writing style... but that is you opinion.
As for my running a business in general, well see for yourself...
• Acquired, integrated, turn around, and positioned for growth a $70 million dollar semi-conductor manufacturing company. Most business objectives were accomplished in less than six months and the acquired business was sold to a publicly traded company.
• In less than 5 years took a start-up computer company to $35 million dollars in revenues. Developed and implemented business solutions through technology and innovative marketing.
• Acquired minority interest in a privately held chemical firm with over 200 product lines, implemented aggressive product consolidation and marketing strategies and turned around operations. In less than 10 years [since acquisition] tripled sales revenues to over $18 million dollars, positioned the business for exponential growth and sold the entire business for $xx million dollars to Dow Chemicals.
• Established an agency relationship with a division of a $12 billion multi-national chemical company. Using innovative marketing concepts, increased market penetration in the automotive adhesives business, and increased sales from $0.5 million to $6 million per year rate in less than 18 months.
• Managed project planning, scheduling, and budgeting and cost control for a multi-billion dollar nuclear power plant project for New Jersey based Public Electric & Gas Utility.
That’s half of my resume... now do I get invited for an interview?
YOU:
"Smart money investors have already sold-off and left!"
Really? How do you know this. You do realize that had you bought MVIS a year ago you'd still be outperforming the S&P 500, right? You are being a chicken little, crying that the sky is falling.
MY RESPONSE:
Unfortunately, I bought into Microvision stock a few years go and currently average about $3.87 per share. And no, I’m not crying that the sky is falling... it’s the Microvision stock that is falling like as in a free fall.
YOU:
"Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx has been around for almost two years now and is already an old technology... so to speak."
Really? We are all waiting for a green laser that a year ago didn't even exist and now you're calling the ShowWx an old technology?
MY RESONSE:
Microvision announced the integration of Osram green laser into its pico projector in June of 2007. That’s over two and half years ago... making SHOWwx an over two year old technology.
Here’s the link...
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1016948&highlight
YOU:
"Granted, that laser based pico projectors will be a huge success someday..."
So stop being such a daytrader! If you call yourself an investor, then INVEST! If you believe that laser based pico projectors will succeed, and Microvision is the only manufacturer of laser based pico projectors,...well....
MY RESPONSE:
I’m not a day trader.
Here’s the link to my clearly stated investment strategy...
www.wealthbyoptions.com
continued...
Response Part 2:
ReplyDeleteYOU:
"It is time to take control of this green laser nonsense that has been making rounds for the last two years and explore alternate technologies such as pico projectors that work with slow modulating green lasers."
First you say Alex needs to cut overhead by 70%, and now you're saying that even there we are closer than we've ever been to getting a supply of green lasers, to start burning through MORE money exploring other technologies?
MY RESPONSE:
Currently there are over 140 employees. Out of those the R&D staff is about 70 engineers. I don’t have full knowledge of the business plan of Microvision. However, I do know...
• Everything important, other than R&D, is outsourced.
• There are no sales of any kind... so to speak.
• Marketing is busy churning the same old whipped cream over and over... to raise it to higher levels of froth. Agreements are made and then are allowed to just die on the vine.
• There are no new products other than the 30 months old pico projector SHOWwx.
• R&D keeps putting out these multiple patents in a very narrow technology vein... like Romans deep-vein mining for gold a single vein for over a decade.
• Do we really need 40 people in administration, investor relations, communication and public relations to tell us there are more delays on every turn and that they are having problems executing the green laser based product business plan?
• Do we really need 30 people in sales, marketing, layers of product management, customer support, customer service, RMA processing, customer liaison, etc. etc. You name any job title and Microvision has [at least] two of each on the payroll.
• Microvision is so top heavy in management that it gives you the impression they keep hiring in the hopes of finding someone right for the job... or have two or three do the job of one.
It’s about time someone questioned the operating cost structure of this company.
YOU:
First you say Alex needs to cut overhead by 70%, and now you're saying that even there we are closer than we've ever been to getting a supply of green lasers, to start burning through MORE money exploring other technologies?
MY RESPONSE:
You got me there!
Cutting 70% may be too harsh. How about cutting 30% and go from there? There are too many employees in the waiting mode [so to speak] for the last two and half years... while we wait and wait for the ever elusive SHG green lasers.
YOU:
Anant, you do an incredible disservice to investors of Microvision. Here you've setup a blog dedicated to Microvision and present yourself as some authority on both the company and its technology. You are not. You are just some guy with a blog whose posts are either euphoric or gloom and doom depending on what Microvision's share price does that day.
Grow some effing balls.
MY RESPONSE:
My blog is for the benefit of my friends and family... and the blog site happens to be the cheapest and most effective way to communicate.
If you or anyone else doesn’t like my posts... then don’t read them and ignore my posts altogether!
Your comments, however, are part of the feedback loop that is essential to keeping facts and figures as close to reality as possible... rather than perpetuate fiction or wishful thinking.
Most all of the educated population of the world, will be globally connected by the Internet. And the boundaries of time and space will disappear. People will gather in public forums of their common interests like specialist blogs and stock message boards; to network and share information. These people will be the investors, customers, vendors, friends, enemies, management, or employees of the public companies. In a public forum like this, that allows us to maintain our anonymity, there will be no place to hide for the incompetent or the unscrupulous.
As for my balls, I have a pair that gets its fare share of effing and shagging.
Have to agree with you, that it hasn't been a walk in the park investing in Microvision. But then again, good things come to those that have the patience, knowledge, analytical fortitude and the power of belief to stay the course.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more months will not break the corporate treasury or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.
After listening to Alex Tokeman interview again, this is my reaction for whatever it is worth...