Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman

Dear Mr. Tokman:

Considering the further delays and continued issues with executing the green laser based product business plan, please consider cutting the overhead by at least 70%.

Smart money investors have already sold-off and left! Why continue with a burn rate that reflects high levels of product development and sales activity... when there is none? I say this after looking at [and not finding anything other than SHOWwx] at the CES 2010 show. And yes, I also looked at the on-line interview at least ten times... just to be sure that I got the intended message right.

Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx has been around for almost two years now and is already an old technology... so to speak. Granted, that laser based pico projectors will be a huge success someday... but that day or for that matter that year is not this year to put it bluntly.

It is time to take control of this green laser nonsense that has been making rounds for the last two years and explore alternate technologies such as pico projectors that work with slow modulating green lasers.

With the existing laser light technology as it is today, it is stretching the technology envelop little too far to achieve SHG green lasers that can reliably modulate at 100MHz. Also, you may have experienced success with MEMS mirrors with carbon fiber torsion arms that can modulate fast enough today... but what happens to them a year or two from now is anybody’s guess. Materials fatigue and fail at exponential rate at the high end of the stress cycle.

For God’s sake control costs and think survival over the next two years when technology will be ready to support your currently demanding product specifications.

Also, the embedded pico projectors could be the ultimate goal for mass adoption and profitability in the future... but the standalone SHOWwx and its derivatives can still make Microvision profitable this year.

Warm regards,

Anant Goel
Beaten, bruised and humbled investor of Microvision