Perry Mulligan is a perfect choice for replacing the outgoing Board of Director at Microvision. His expertise and industy connections are exactly what Microvision needs at this stage of its growth... that is, a company on the verge of “hyper growth”.
“Prior to joining QLogic, Mr. Mulligan spent nine years in the Electronic Manufacturing Services industry where he held senior executive positions at both Solectron and Celestica. These positions included the role of Chief Procurement Officer and Senior Vice President of Materials for Solectron Corporation, Vice President of customer solutions at Celestica, and VP of Asia sourcing for Celestica. Before entering the Electronics Manufacturing Services industry, Mr. Mulligan held a number of management positions at Nortel in operations, IT and materials management.”
Here’s the link to the Press Release...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Perry-Mulligan-Joins-bw-2376595991.html?x=0&.v=1
These are very interesting and revealing choice of words from the Press Release...
“On behalf of the entire Board of Directors and management team, I am pleased to welcome an accomplished operations strategist, supply chain builder, and manager of large work teams as we rapidly ramp Microvision’s go-to-market strategy.”
"Microvision is clearly one of the most innovative companies in the emerging category of pico projection,” said Mr. Mulligan. “I feel privileged to join this exciting and dynamic opportunity and look forward to working closely with the other Directors and CEO Alexander Tokman and his team, during this next phase of Microvision’s growth.”
Yes, Microvision’s next phase of growth is indeed “hyper growth” and the management will have to deal with the challenges and issues that come with the territory... as early as in the 1st Qtr 2011.
You may ask what hyper growth is...
Unless you sit down and have a conversation with Warren Buffet (who breaks it down to simplicities), you're going to get a million different answers to this question. The point is that most analyst look for "ARG" - Accelerating Revenue Growth. And that’s what Microvison is gearing-up for... begining March of this year.
“ARG is when your revenue growth % is increasing year over year. Investors and savvy analysts like to see positive ARG... because, it's an indicator of good things. Google and Apple just blew the doors off earning estimates, yet didn't get a bump in stock price (actually it went down a little) because of lack of ARG. Then again, ARG doesn't tell the whole story because what company can continue to grow at 400% perpetually?”
Look for ARG and remember, ARG is only probable in the first few years of a company's existence. Sure, you can see it down the road but at that point the real $ has already been made.
There are four characteristics to look for in a hyper-growth company like Microvision...
1. Sustainable sales growth: This is easy to find and makes sense to any investor.
2. High operating margins: The profit from each widget today has to pay for the development of future widgets... and leave enough left over to enrich shareholders.
3. Small capital requirements: We don’t want to see all the profits going out the door to pay off big debts.
4. Scalability: We want a company that can handle many additional users [or sell millions of more widgets] at no extra cost other than the cost of goods.
Growth investing and value investing are two distinct styles of investing that when combined are the perfect reciepe for Hyper Growth... like in the future of Microvision.
When growth is combined with value, the product is GARP, or growth at a reasonable price, which looks for companies that are undervalued with sustainable growth potential... like Microvison currently trading at deep discounted prices and with a promising future ARG that will surely blow the lids-off the chart.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Friday, January 29, 2010
Microvision: Announces March 2010 Launch of Laser Projector SHOWwx in the US Market (Updated)
Microvision will launch SHOWwx in the US market with about 10, 000 units in the first Qtr. of 2010.
Having said that, there is no better way to communicate the answer to green laser supply question that we all have been asking all this time, than to say it, as it is, when I stumbled upon this information.
“If you shake the tree long enough in the hopes of catching some falling fruits, sometimes you may find the monkey drop in your lap instead.”
Well, someone that I have known for sometime and respect admirably just dropped the monkey in my lap. This person is in the loop for this kind of information and has fairly good handle on green laser production estimates from Corning and Osram for the next four Qtrs. And this information is being shared here under promise of anonymity.
So, without further ado, here’s what it looks like…
First, I have been asked to emphasize that these are very conservative numbers; and assume Osram coming on board towards the end of February, and Corning ramping production beginning March.
First Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the first Qtr are expected to be over 10,000 units. Microvision will launch SHOWwx in the US market with about 10, 000 units in the first Qtr. 2010.
“Yields at Osram and Corning are improving and there are reasons to believe that we have some official good news coming-up on the horizon.”
Hopefully, we will hear about it soon. And that surely will calm the retail investor nerves. Currently, the MVIS stock price reflects the most pessimistic view of green laser shipments from Microvision supply chain partners.
Second Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the second Qtr are expected to be over 20,000 units… doubling production Qtr over Qtr.
Third Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the third Qtr are expected to be over 40,000 units… doubling production Qtr over Qtr.
Fourth Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the fourth Qtr are expected to be over 80,000 units… doubling production Qtr over Qtr.
If you do the math, it looks like 150,000 units for the year 2010. Now what’s interesting are the first Qtr 2011 numbers… over 160,000 units. In other words beginning first Qtr 2011, the green laser supply will not be the sales constraining issue… it may well be the sales generation issue.
Q: Would there be an official Microvision announcement?
A: Yes, I’m counting on that in the next few weeks or less… perhaps in early March. It may not be what the pessimists want to hear... but it certainly would please the cautiously optimists.
Microvision CEO Alex Tokman announced March 2010 as the launch date for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in to the US market. He also indicated that Microvision will sell them from its own corporate website rather than collaborate with an OEM at this time.
You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Microvision had officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.
As for the US market, it is huge and is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram. Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009… but with Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply is improving dramatically.
Today, we closed at $1.96 and it seems like we may have found the bottom.
Here’s why…
As the selling intensifies, more and more people start to wake up to the change that has taken place in the market and then start selling.
This selling further accelerates and extends the down move until we finally reach the capitulation point where all the people who have been hanging on finally quit in disgust and sell at the bottom.
There are a lot of disgusted and angry investors of Microvision prowling the message boards over the last few days, and I really think we have seen the capitulation point today.
Have we reached the bottom?
I think so and at these deeply discounted prices it makes good sense to aggressively start accumulating.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Having said that, there is no better way to communicate the answer to green laser supply question that we all have been asking all this time, than to say it, as it is, when I stumbled upon this information.
“If you shake the tree long enough in the hopes of catching some falling fruits, sometimes you may find the monkey drop in your lap instead.”
Well, someone that I have known for sometime and respect admirably just dropped the monkey in my lap. This person is in the loop for this kind of information and has fairly good handle on green laser production estimates from Corning and Osram for the next four Qtrs. And this information is being shared here under promise of anonymity.
So, without further ado, here’s what it looks like…
First, I have been asked to emphasize that these are very conservative numbers; and assume Osram coming on board towards the end of February, and Corning ramping production beginning March.
First Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the first Qtr are expected to be over 10,000 units. Microvision will launch SHOWwx in the US market with about 10, 000 units in the first Qtr. 2010.
“Yields at Osram and Corning are improving and there are reasons to believe that we have some official good news coming-up on the horizon.”
Hopefully, we will hear about it soon. And that surely will calm the retail investor nerves. Currently, the MVIS stock price reflects the most pessimistic view of green laser shipments from Microvision supply chain partners.
Second Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the second Qtr are expected to be over 20,000 units… doubling production Qtr over Qtr.
Third Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the third Qtr are expected to be over 40,000 units… doubling production Qtr over Qtr.
Fourth Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the fourth Qtr are expected to be over 80,000 units… doubling production Qtr over Qtr.
If you do the math, it looks like 150,000 units for the year 2010. Now what’s interesting are the first Qtr 2011 numbers… over 160,000 units. In other words beginning first Qtr 2011, the green laser supply will not be the sales constraining issue… it may well be the sales generation issue.
Q: Would there be an official Microvision announcement?
A: Yes, I’m counting on that in the next few weeks or less… perhaps in early March. It may not be what the pessimists want to hear... but it certainly would please the cautiously optimists.
Microvision CEO Alex Tokman announced March 2010 as the launch date for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in to the US market. He also indicated that Microvision will sell them from its own corporate website rather than collaborate with an OEM at this time.
You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Microvision had officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.
As for the US market, it is huge and is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram. Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009… but with Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply is improving dramatically.
Today, we closed at $1.96 and it seems like we may have found the bottom.
Here’s why…
As the selling intensifies, more and more people start to wake up to the change that has taken place in the market and then start selling.
This selling further accelerates and extends the down move until we finally reach the capitulation point where all the people who have been hanging on finally quit in disgust and sell at the bottom.
There are a lot of disgusted and angry investors of Microvision prowling the message boards over the last few days, and I really think we have seen the capitulation point today.
Have we reached the bottom?
I think so and at these deeply discounted prices it makes good sense to aggressively start accumulating.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Microvision: Time to Start Accumulating the Stock (Part 2)
It’s time to start accumulating Microvision [Nasdaq: MVIS] stock.
That’s what I said in Part 1 of the post on this subject… two days ago when the stock was trading at $2.18.
Today, we closed at $2.02 and it seems like we may drop further over the next few days.
Here’s why…
As the selling intensifies, more and more people start to wake up to the change that has taken place in the market and then start selling.
This selling further accelerates and extends the down move until we finally reach the capitulation point where the all the people who have been hanging on finally quit in disgust and sell at the bottom.
Have we reached the bottom?
May be or may be not… that is the question!
But it does make sense to start accumulating at these levels.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
That’s what I said in Part 1 of the post on this subject… two days ago when the stock was trading at $2.18.
Today, we closed at $2.02 and it seems like we may drop further over the next few days.
Here’s why…
As the selling intensifies, more and more people start to wake up to the change that has taken place in the market and then start selling.
This selling further accelerates and extends the down move until we finally reach the capitulation point where the all the people who have been hanging on finally quit in disgust and sell at the bottom.
Have we reached the bottom?
May be or may be not… that is the question!
But it does make sense to start accumulating at these levels.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Monday, January 25, 2010
Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman (update)
I’ll be the first one to admit that at times we all fall into this trap of making rash judgment based on who said what where and when.
Given the time for the initial reaction to settle down and with a little bit more patience, today I see, for whatever it is worth, the positive side of the information shared by CEO Alex Tokman at his interview of January 7th. Having reviewed the events over the last twenty days and listening to the interview several times again, I must admit I got the intended message somewhat wrong. If I was given the opportunity to retract my original post, I would probably say things little differently today.
Here’s what I see today…
Over the last twenty days the “perfect storm” has lost strength after we had the opportunity to rationalize events that caused such turmoil in the first place.
On January 11th, I wrote about the “perfect storm” at Microvision in my blog at…
http://www.mirro7.blogspot.com/
In summary what I said…
“What we have seen over the past 48 hours is the “perfect storm” brewing in the future of Microvision. It started with Asia Optical making public comments [as perceived] in the media about TI having the best pico solution for embedded applications. It picked-up more gale force after the in-house staged CEO interview where Alex indicated more delays and future uncertainties. It became a perfect storm of hurricane force magnitude over the PC Magazine review of SHOWwx.”
“Individually these negative issues are easy to deal with because they have a reasonable explanation... and as such may or may not have an impact on the MVIS share price in the short term. However, collectively they are the recipe for a “perfect storm” and may precipitate an investor sell-off first and then look for explanation later... and that could be very damaging to the overall investor psyche.”
Now twenty days after the CEO interview, let’s review the three elements of this perfect storm to see how things stack-up today…
Asia Optical Comments about TI Pico Solution
Asia Optical is a relatively new supply chain partner of Microvision with a relationship that formed just over a year ago. When AO makes comments that favor TI pico solution; it is understandable since Asia Optical has years of existing and ongoing relationship with them. So we can put that aside and consider it a minor twister in the way large corporations stick together and pay more attention to their current revenue source rather than go out of their way to support the business plan of a newcomer [like Microvision] with a glowing future potential.
Granted, that AO could have said something complimentary to TI without stating the “DLP pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency”. When you look at the choice of words that AO used, it is easy to mistakenly take it as saying that DLP pico(TM) solution is the best for embedded applications. However, that is not the case and I don’t see the words of AO saying that either.
First of all, Asia Optical knows that pico(TM) is the registered trade mark of Microvision. And DLP pico solution may not be the best when compared to laser based PicoP solution from Microvision for embedded applications. However, since there are no embedded pico display engines from Microvision to be found on planet earth as yet… and considering the existing pico technologies out there currently, the DLP pico solution is perhaps the most compelling solution etc. etc.
Interview with Microvision CEO Alex Tokman
On January 7th, Alex Tokman gave an interview that was posted at the company’s blog site The Displayground.
Here’s the link to the interview...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
After listening to the CEO interview, I had, just like many others, a mixed bag of reaction…
• The first and foremost was to congratulate the management for taking the bold initiative to communicate with the stakeholders at the blog in such an informal setting. The Displayground has been a leap of faith in the way a corporation, such as Microvision, has embraced the Internet to communicate with its stakeholders.
• Since investors of Microvision, and I’m one of them, have such high expectations of the management, that at first blush the interview looks so stiff and staged. But when you look at the interview again and pay more attention to the subject matter, rather than watch the body language of Alex Tokman, it kind of grows on you.
• Both the timing and the intended [or unintended] information disseminated at this interview left the investors with a perception of further delays in green laser production and also delays in the release of PDE [PicoP Display Engine] evaluation units to OEMs for embedded applications. That in my opinion was the center of this “perfect storm” brewing over at Microvision.
It’s not very often, if ever, that you see the CEO of a company give an informal interview to release information that could have some serious consequences to not only its stock price but also raise questions about future time lines etc. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what this interview did... precipitate a stock sell-off and did some serious damage to the credibility of Microvision management.
First the timing...
The timing of this in-house interview with Microvision CEO couldn’t have been the worst move in the history of Microvision. It tops all the other “blunders” the top Management [past and present] has made over the years. Unfortunately, it effectively neutralized any positive impact of the CES 2010 award that Microvision received as the “Last Gadget Standing” for its SHOWwx projector.
All that reaction was looking at the interview from 20 days ago and making a rash judgment call.
Today, with a bit of patience and reviewing the interview again you will see the positive aspects that you may have missed before. To get the most out of this interview, it is best to listen to it again [a few times] and make sure to keep your skepticism of the management out of the way.
Here we go…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
PC Magazine Review
On January 7th, PC Magazine published their findings of SHOWwx pico projector review. Boy, oh boy! Talk about perfect timing to join in the storm brewing at Microvision.
First, here’s the link...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp
Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.
Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.
When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.
Having realized that, I did some research and wrote a post on the blog…
“PC Magazine Review is Full of Crap, Flawed, and Biased”
Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2010/01/microvision-pc-magazine-review-is-full.html
There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased.
As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6w
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
Or this for the large screen experience…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvbRyYAevQw
Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...
“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.
The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.
While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+transformed+into+tech+lover+paradise/2417678/story.html
At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.
Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09/and-the-winners-are/
Now you tell me?
Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.
You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.
In closing this post...
The stakes here are very high, and we are worried that Microvision management underestimates the things they need to do, as well as, the things their competitors will do to gain advantage in the pico projector marketplace. Obviously, Microvision management did not see this “perfect storm” coming and apparently had no contingency plan.
However, over the last twenty days, the “perfect storm” has lost strength after we had the opportunity to rationalize events that caused such turmoil in the first place. Given the time for the initial reaction to settle down and with a little bit more patience, today I see, for whatever it is worth, the positive side of the information shared by CEO Alex Tokman in his interview of January 7th.
I suggest that you also listen to CEO Alex Tokman’s interview again [a few times] with an open mind and without your skepticism of the Microvision management.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Given the time for the initial reaction to settle down and with a little bit more patience, today I see, for whatever it is worth, the positive side of the information shared by CEO Alex Tokman at his interview of January 7th. Having reviewed the events over the last twenty days and listening to the interview several times again, I must admit I got the intended message somewhat wrong. If I was given the opportunity to retract my original post, I would probably say things little differently today.
Here’s what I see today…
Over the last twenty days the “perfect storm” has lost strength after we had the opportunity to rationalize events that caused such turmoil in the first place.
On January 11th, I wrote about the “perfect storm” at Microvision in my blog at…
http://www.mirro7.blogspot.com/
In summary what I said…
“What we have seen over the past 48 hours is the “perfect storm” brewing in the future of Microvision. It started with Asia Optical making public comments [as perceived] in the media about TI having the best pico solution for embedded applications. It picked-up more gale force after the in-house staged CEO interview where Alex indicated more delays and future uncertainties. It became a perfect storm of hurricane force magnitude over the PC Magazine review of SHOWwx.”
“Individually these negative issues are easy to deal with because they have a reasonable explanation... and as such may or may not have an impact on the MVIS share price in the short term. However, collectively they are the recipe for a “perfect storm” and may precipitate an investor sell-off first and then look for explanation later... and that could be very damaging to the overall investor psyche.”
Now twenty days after the CEO interview, let’s review the three elements of this perfect storm to see how things stack-up today…
Asia Optical Comments about TI Pico Solution
Asia Optical is a relatively new supply chain partner of Microvision with a relationship that formed just over a year ago. When AO makes comments that favor TI pico solution; it is understandable since Asia Optical has years of existing and ongoing relationship with them. So we can put that aside and consider it a minor twister in the way large corporations stick together and pay more attention to their current revenue source rather than go out of their way to support the business plan of a newcomer [like Microvision] with a glowing future potential.
Granted, that AO could have said something complimentary to TI without stating the “DLP pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency”. When you look at the choice of words that AO used, it is easy to mistakenly take it as saying that DLP pico(TM) solution is the best for embedded applications. However, that is not the case and I don’t see the words of AO saying that either.
First of all, Asia Optical knows that pico(TM) is the registered trade mark of Microvision. And DLP pico solution may not be the best when compared to laser based PicoP solution from Microvision for embedded applications. However, since there are no embedded pico display engines from Microvision to be found on planet earth as yet… and considering the existing pico technologies out there currently, the DLP pico solution is perhaps the most compelling solution etc. etc.
Interview with Microvision CEO Alex Tokman
On January 7th, Alex Tokman gave an interview that was posted at the company’s blog site The Displayground.
Here’s the link to the interview...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
After listening to the CEO interview, I had, just like many others, a mixed bag of reaction…
• The first and foremost was to congratulate the management for taking the bold initiative to communicate with the stakeholders at the blog in such an informal setting. The Displayground has been a leap of faith in the way a corporation, such as Microvision, has embraced the Internet to communicate with its stakeholders.
• Since investors of Microvision, and I’m one of them, have such high expectations of the management, that at first blush the interview looks so stiff and staged. But when you look at the interview again and pay more attention to the subject matter, rather than watch the body language of Alex Tokman, it kind of grows on you.
• Both the timing and the intended [or unintended] information disseminated at this interview left the investors with a perception of further delays in green laser production and also delays in the release of PDE [PicoP Display Engine] evaluation units to OEMs for embedded applications. That in my opinion was the center of this “perfect storm” brewing over at Microvision.
It’s not very often, if ever, that you see the CEO of a company give an informal interview to release information that could have some serious consequences to not only its stock price but also raise questions about future time lines etc. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what this interview did... precipitate a stock sell-off and did some serious damage to the credibility of Microvision management.
First the timing...
The timing of this in-house interview with Microvision CEO couldn’t have been the worst move in the history of Microvision. It tops all the other “blunders” the top Management [past and present] has made over the years. Unfortunately, it effectively neutralized any positive impact of the CES 2010 award that Microvision received as the “Last Gadget Standing” for its SHOWwx projector.
All that reaction was looking at the interview from 20 days ago and making a rash judgment call.
Today, with a bit of patience and reviewing the interview again you will see the positive aspects that you may have missed before. To get the most out of this interview, it is best to listen to it again [a few times] and make sure to keep your skepticism of the management out of the way.
Here we go…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
PC Magazine Review
On January 7th, PC Magazine published their findings of SHOWwx pico projector review. Boy, oh boy! Talk about perfect timing to join in the storm brewing at Microvision.
First, here’s the link...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp
Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.
Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.
When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.
Having realized that, I did some research and wrote a post on the blog…
“PC Magazine Review is Full of Crap, Flawed, and Biased”
Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2010/01/microvision-pc-magazine-review-is-full.html
There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased.
As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6w
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
Or this for the large screen experience…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvbRyYAevQw
Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...
“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.
The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.
While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+transformed+into+tech+lover+paradise/2417678/story.html
At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.
Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09/and-the-winners-are/
Now you tell me?
Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.
You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.
In closing this post...
The stakes here are very high, and we are worried that Microvision management underestimates the things they need to do, as well as, the things their competitors will do to gain advantage in the pico projector marketplace. Obviously, Microvision management did not see this “perfect storm” coming and apparently had no contingency plan.
However, over the last twenty days, the “perfect storm” has lost strength after we had the opportunity to rationalize events that caused such turmoil in the first place. Given the time for the initial reaction to settle down and with a little bit more patience, today I see, for whatever it is worth, the positive side of the information shared by CEO Alex Tokman in his interview of January 7th.
I suggest that you also listen to CEO Alex Tokman’s interview again [a few times] with an open mind and without your skepticism of the Microvision management.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Microvision: Time to Start Accumulating the Stock
It’s time to start accumulating Microvision [Nasdaq: MVIS] stock.
Here’s why…
• Most all the negatives are on the table, including limited production quantities last year in 2009 and going into the first Qtr 2010.
• $31 million additional funding was completed in November 2009 and the associated dilution has already been absorbed.
• Microvision officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.
• Microvision CEO Alex Tokman announced March 2010 as the launch date for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in to the US market. He also indicated that Microvision will sell them from its own corporate website rather than collaborate with an OEM at this time.
You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
• US market is huge and it is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram.
• Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009. With Corning increasing production in March and Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply should improve dramatically.
• With green laser supply continuing to improve over the rest of year 2010, it is just the matter of time that a visionary company like Apple will come waltzing down the aisle to embed Microvision’s PDEs in their smartphones, iPods etc. If it is not Apple initially, it will be someone else… you can bet on that.
• The positives are better defined now than ever before and the management is comfortable with the stated time line.
• Enhanced PDEs, based on second generation green lasers and ASIC, are scheduled to be released to OEMs for embedded applications in early second Qtr of 2010… with possible applications hitting the market place as early as first Qtr 2011.
• Several SHOWwx derivatives and other applications are under “secret” development. I know you are skeptics when it comes to Microvision management. But this time around, consider this, the CEO Alex Tokman got on the tube to make the announcement and that carries a lot more weight in my opinion.
• The management officially launched the SHOWwx marketing campaign just before the CES 2010 and now seems to be gathering momentum.
• The management officially launched the viral marketing campaign by launching the official Blog “The Displayland”.
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
• The PicoP Display Engine is ready to go…evidenced by the PEK developers kit as ready and available for sale.
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/pek.html
• The PicoP projector Display Engine specs and features are several notches above the competition.
• The management officially launched network marketing… by launching dedicated site for PEK tool kit for developers and publicly stating its availability to buy now.
“We believe that the accessory pico projector is just the beginning for the PicoP display engine which could be deployed in a diverse range of applications. For this reason, we are providing PEKs to help prospective customers cultivate new ideas and products.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Features-bw-14001019.html
• One year ago, the management officially announced a $1.5 million funding contract to “Develop High-Definition Prototype Display Engine”. It’s interesting to note that the funding is for the next generation of PicoP Display Engine with HD resolution [1280x720]… while the competition [at HVGA] is still struggling to catch-up with what SHOWwx offers today [848x480]. In technological terms that is over 2 years lead over the competition… that is if they ever find a technology that has no glass ceiling on the resolution without compromising other attributes like power, form factor, brightness and always-in-focus image.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090114005365&newsLang=en
Finally, after all these years, the management is officially “coming out” swinging when they make a statement like…
“What’s significant about the emerging category is that it’s not just the media that are covering this emerging market. Market and financial analysts see this as a rapidly growing opportunity. According to Chris Chinnock, Insight Media, in a recent article highlighting the various pico projector technologies published by the Society of Information Display, he headlines the article as the Pico Projector Gold Rush. Check out the article (with contributions from a variety of the pico projector players, including Microvision). We do believe ‘there is gold in them there hills!’ And, since we believe we have the BEST offering in this emerging category, we hope to strike the mother load.”
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=365
Microvision stock seems to have hit bottom; after 15 days of relentless downward spiral caused by the “perfect storm” of January 7th.
I don’t see any further decline on the horizon and will aggressively start accumulating!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Here’s why…
• Most all the negatives are on the table, including limited production quantities last year in 2009 and going into the first Qtr 2010.
• $31 million additional funding was completed in November 2009 and the associated dilution has already been absorbed.
• Microvision officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.
• Microvision CEO Alex Tokman announced March 2010 as the launch date for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in to the US market. He also indicated that Microvision will sell them from its own corporate website rather than collaborate with an OEM at this time.
You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
• US market is huge and it is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram.
• Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009. With Corning increasing production in March and Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply should improve dramatically.
• With green laser supply continuing to improve over the rest of year 2010, it is just the matter of time that a visionary company like Apple will come waltzing down the aisle to embed Microvision’s PDEs in their smartphones, iPods etc. If it is not Apple initially, it will be someone else… you can bet on that.
• The positives are better defined now than ever before and the management is comfortable with the stated time line.
• Enhanced PDEs, based on second generation green lasers and ASIC, are scheduled to be released to OEMs for embedded applications in early second Qtr of 2010… with possible applications hitting the market place as early as first Qtr 2011.
• Several SHOWwx derivatives and other applications are under “secret” development. I know you are skeptics when it comes to Microvision management. But this time around, consider this, the CEO Alex Tokman got on the tube to make the announcement and that carries a lot more weight in my opinion.
• The management officially launched the SHOWwx marketing campaign just before the CES 2010 and now seems to be gathering momentum.
• The management officially launched the viral marketing campaign by launching the official Blog “The Displayland”.
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
• The PicoP Display Engine is ready to go…evidenced by the PEK developers kit as ready and available for sale.
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/pek.html
• The PicoP projector Display Engine specs and features are several notches above the competition.
• The management officially launched network marketing… by launching dedicated site for PEK tool kit for developers and publicly stating its availability to buy now.
“We believe that the accessory pico projector is just the beginning for the PicoP display engine which could be deployed in a diverse range of applications. For this reason, we are providing PEKs to help prospective customers cultivate new ideas and products.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Features-bw-14001019.html
• One year ago, the management officially announced a $1.5 million funding contract to “Develop High-Definition Prototype Display Engine”. It’s interesting to note that the funding is for the next generation of PicoP Display Engine with HD resolution [1280x720]… while the competition [at HVGA] is still struggling to catch-up with what SHOWwx offers today [848x480]. In technological terms that is over 2 years lead over the competition… that is if they ever find a technology that has no glass ceiling on the resolution without compromising other attributes like power, form factor, brightness and always-in-focus image.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090114005365&newsLang=en
Finally, after all these years, the management is officially “coming out” swinging when they make a statement like…
“What’s significant about the emerging category is that it’s not just the media that are covering this emerging market. Market and financial analysts see this as a rapidly growing opportunity. According to Chris Chinnock, Insight Media, in a recent article highlighting the various pico projector technologies published by the Society of Information Display, he headlines the article as the Pico Projector Gold Rush. Check out the article (with contributions from a variety of the pico projector players, including Microvision). We do believe ‘there is gold in them there hills!’ And, since we believe we have the BEST offering in this emerging category, we hope to strike the mother load.”
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=365
Microvision stock seems to have hit bottom; after 15 days of relentless downward spiral caused by the “perfect storm” of January 7th.
I don’t see any further decline on the horizon and will aggressively start accumulating!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Microvision: Announces March 2010 Launch of Laser Projector SHOWwx in the US Market
Microvision CEO Alex Tokman announced March 2010 as the launch date for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in to the US market. He also indicated that Microvision will sell them from its own corporate website rather than collaborate with an OEM at this time.
You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Microvision had officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.
As for the US market, it is huge and is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram. Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009… but with Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply should improve dramatically.
Having said that, the next question that begs answering is the reasons for Microvision selling the SHOWwx into the US market on its own rather than through an OEM?
Here’re some thoughts to ponder…
Years ago Microvision decided to focus on the lasers as the source of light for their PicoP Projectors. By doing so the management embarked on a very complex project that involved a myriad of challenges, issues, risks and problems.
When a problem is fearsomely complex, the best thing you can do is take Thoreau’s advice: “Simplify, simplify, simplify.” At the same time, though, one should remain aware of Einstein’s advice: “Things should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
It is a reasonable simplification, to reduce all of the big-picture markets for PicoP projectors to the development and marketing of PDE [PicoP Display Engine] to the OEMs, and let the OEMs add frills [and complexity] to arrive at the final consumer product. However, there may be currently an OEM acceptance issue with that approach due to:
• The lack of interest [or vision] on the part of OEMs to embrace the Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine at this stage;
• The potential fear of cannibalization of the DLP based lamp/LED projectors currently sold by the major OEMs;
• The politics of the market place where the competition [like 3M and Texas Instruments] have deeper pockets and well entrenched relationships.
Lack of vision can destroy [albeit slowly] even the mightiest of the companies, for example:
Kodak could have stayed king of the imaging hill, but they chose to ignore digital as a mere fad.
Polaroid went bankrupt and it is widely believed to be the result of the failure of its senior management to anticipate the effect of digital cameras on its film business.
Boeing allowed a labor strike to deprive it of the last good year it will probably enjoy for some time to come.
And poor old Ford may actually have a tough-minded visionary at the helm, but it is an auto manufacturer in a year when that is simply the wrong business to be in.
Can you imagine the fate of the supply chain companies associated with any of the above dinosaurs… well, may be not those of Boeing?
So, any company [like Microvision] that is waiting on the major OEMs [that lack vision] for its market development [and survival] is in it-self lacking vision… by not introducing consumer product(s) that are strategically aligned to the targeted market. Meaning the target market, at this stage, being the “stand alone accessory” PicoP Projector SHOWwx?
I may be wrong, but I get the feeling that Microvision management is not waiting around for the OEMs to make their move; and is approaching the US market for stand alone accessory PicoP projector SHOWwx on its own.
That’s an excellent move considering the relative ease of developing [and servicing] the US market and the pricing advantage of selling directly to consumers at much higher net margins.
There are, however, some considerations that must be addressed seriously before embarking on such a journey. I’m sure Microvision has addressed these at great length and has arrived at its marketing plan for the US. However, we are not privy to Microvision plans so it’s fair to discuss them here in a tone as if something that should be addressed.
Create a 360-degree experience for the consumer:
The PicoP brands [stand alone or embedded] need to match the right product to the right consumers and then connect with them meaningfully at every point of contact. The "360-degree experience" includes everything from packaging, design, and marketing, distribution to after-market support… including programs to help customers discover product benefits, end-of life recycling programs, and user support executed with the care of a concierge service, rather than with the complication and delay of an overwrought bureaucracy.
I wish there was another example besides Apple to demonstrate a successful 360-degree experience, but Apple nails it every time. They do not try to be everything to everybody. Packaging is elegant. The product is beautifully designed. Set-up is simple. Support is available… with room for some improvement here. Messaging is consistent and clear at every touch point.
Pick the right distribution channel:
Market research has revealed that consumers are overwhelmed and confused at retail stores like Circuit City… no doubt a contributing factor in its recent bankruptcy filing. People they tracked on "shop-along" research trips found it impossible to discern the meaningful difference between, say, a $40 mouse and a $70 one, let alone penetrate the chaos that is the flat-screen TV section. Navigating the many dozens of options marketed with buzzwords like "plasma," "digital," or "720p LCD" was daunting, and many potential customers left the store without making a purchase. So the industry can add "loss of sale" to their return losses as well.
Research shows that shoppers frequently visit manufacturer Web sites for information… but rarely make the purchase decision based solely on that information. They used third party sources such as CNET, customer reviews on Amazon or the advice of their peers before making the buying decision. It's no surprise, then, that there is little-to-no brand loyalty. Except, of course, for Apple who has succeeded in translating geek-speak, like "120GB," to terms anyone can understand, like "30,000 songs." The consumer electronics industry needs to stop talking tech-speak and start speaking in terms that mean something to the rest of us consumers.
If Microvision is marketing the PicoP Display Engines to OEMs, its distribution channel choice is obviously the partnered OEMs. However, if Microvision is also considering the introduction of a stand alone accessory PicoP projector like SHOWwx on it own, it needs to seriously evaluate its choice for distribution channel(s) selected for a consumer product addressing the mass market. Each distribution channel has its unique pros and cons and requires an extensive study that is beyond the scope of this post. However, the most important features involve the optimization of the following desirables…
• Cash flow and margins… credit card sales from company [and affiliate] web sites provides advance cash payment [and better margins] as against 30-day delayed accounts receivables from distributors and retailers. As an Amazon drop-ship retailer the company can have the best of all scenarios… on-line retailing power and credibility of Amazon… customer reviews on Amazon… better margins for the company… advanced credit card payment to the company… control over customer service and support… and consistent and clear messaging to the mass consumers.
• Push marketing… company [and affiliate] web sites coupled with e-mail campaigning are much more effective in the introductory phase push marketing than distributors and retailers.
• Pull marketing… third party review sources [like CNET] and retailers [like Amazon] are much more effective in advance stage pull marketing than distributors and retailers.
• Customer support & service… distributors [like Ingram Micro] and retailers [like Circuit City] are not really known for the type of customer service and support that is conducive to customer loyalty or customer satisfaction. RMAs, re-stocking and re-selling is an expensive process due to mishandling and neglect.
• Consistent and clear messaging… company web site, affiliate web sites and retailer Amazon web site allow the company better control over consistent and clear messaging to the mass consumers.
Tell Your Customer the Truth…
If products do make it to the customer home, many don't make it past the out-of-box experience. Not everyone is an early adopter with an appetite (or tolerance) for splashing around a sea of tech-speak to deal with hours-long product set-up guided by confounding directions, little-to-no customer support, and lots and lots of wires.
Well, that’s all I could muster on a sunny afternoon… while we patiently wait for more announcements and answers about production quantities of green lasers and shipments of SHOWwx to current OEMs and the Mobile phone customer Vodafone.
I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the subject.
Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be fine and at the end of the day the MVIS investor will come out whole.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Microvision had officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.
As for the US market, it is huge and is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram. Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009… but with Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply should improve dramatically.
Having said that, the next question that begs answering is the reasons for Microvision selling the SHOWwx into the US market on its own rather than through an OEM?
Here’re some thoughts to ponder…
Years ago Microvision decided to focus on the lasers as the source of light for their PicoP Projectors. By doing so the management embarked on a very complex project that involved a myriad of challenges, issues, risks and problems.
When a problem is fearsomely complex, the best thing you can do is take Thoreau’s advice: “Simplify, simplify, simplify.” At the same time, though, one should remain aware of Einstein’s advice: “Things should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
It is a reasonable simplification, to reduce all of the big-picture markets for PicoP projectors to the development and marketing of PDE [PicoP Display Engine] to the OEMs, and let the OEMs add frills [and complexity] to arrive at the final consumer product. However, there may be currently an OEM acceptance issue with that approach due to:
• The lack of interest [or vision] on the part of OEMs to embrace the Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine at this stage;
• The potential fear of cannibalization of the DLP based lamp/LED projectors currently sold by the major OEMs;
• The politics of the market place where the competition [like 3M and Texas Instruments] have deeper pockets and well entrenched relationships.
Lack of vision can destroy [albeit slowly] even the mightiest of the companies, for example:
Kodak could have stayed king of the imaging hill, but they chose to ignore digital as a mere fad.
Polaroid went bankrupt and it is widely believed to be the result of the failure of its senior management to anticipate the effect of digital cameras on its film business.
Boeing allowed a labor strike to deprive it of the last good year it will probably enjoy for some time to come.
And poor old Ford may actually have a tough-minded visionary at the helm, but it is an auto manufacturer in a year when that is simply the wrong business to be in.
Can you imagine the fate of the supply chain companies associated with any of the above dinosaurs… well, may be not those of Boeing?
So, any company [like Microvision] that is waiting on the major OEMs [that lack vision] for its market development [and survival] is in it-self lacking vision… by not introducing consumer product(s) that are strategically aligned to the targeted market. Meaning the target market, at this stage, being the “stand alone accessory” PicoP Projector SHOWwx?
I may be wrong, but I get the feeling that Microvision management is not waiting around for the OEMs to make their move; and is approaching the US market for stand alone accessory PicoP projector SHOWwx on its own.
That’s an excellent move considering the relative ease of developing [and servicing] the US market and the pricing advantage of selling directly to consumers at much higher net margins.
There are, however, some considerations that must be addressed seriously before embarking on such a journey. I’m sure Microvision has addressed these at great length and has arrived at its marketing plan for the US. However, we are not privy to Microvision plans so it’s fair to discuss them here in a tone as if something that should be addressed.
Create a 360-degree experience for the consumer:
The PicoP brands [stand alone or embedded] need to match the right product to the right consumers and then connect with them meaningfully at every point of contact. The "360-degree experience" includes everything from packaging, design, and marketing, distribution to after-market support… including programs to help customers discover product benefits, end-of life recycling programs, and user support executed with the care of a concierge service, rather than with the complication and delay of an overwrought bureaucracy.
I wish there was another example besides Apple to demonstrate a successful 360-degree experience, but Apple nails it every time. They do not try to be everything to everybody. Packaging is elegant. The product is beautifully designed. Set-up is simple. Support is available… with room for some improvement here. Messaging is consistent and clear at every touch point.
Pick the right distribution channel:
Market research has revealed that consumers are overwhelmed and confused at retail stores like Circuit City… no doubt a contributing factor in its recent bankruptcy filing. People they tracked on "shop-along" research trips found it impossible to discern the meaningful difference between, say, a $40 mouse and a $70 one, let alone penetrate the chaos that is the flat-screen TV section. Navigating the many dozens of options marketed with buzzwords like "plasma," "digital," or "720p LCD" was daunting, and many potential customers left the store without making a purchase. So the industry can add "loss of sale" to their return losses as well.
Research shows that shoppers frequently visit manufacturer Web sites for information… but rarely make the purchase decision based solely on that information. They used third party sources such as CNET, customer reviews on Amazon or the advice of their peers before making the buying decision. It's no surprise, then, that there is little-to-no brand loyalty. Except, of course, for Apple who has succeeded in translating geek-speak, like "120GB," to terms anyone can understand, like "30,000 songs." The consumer electronics industry needs to stop talking tech-speak and start speaking in terms that mean something to the rest of us consumers.
If Microvision is marketing the PicoP Display Engines to OEMs, its distribution channel choice is obviously the partnered OEMs. However, if Microvision is also considering the introduction of a stand alone accessory PicoP projector like SHOWwx on it own, it needs to seriously evaluate its choice for distribution channel(s) selected for a consumer product addressing the mass market. Each distribution channel has its unique pros and cons and requires an extensive study that is beyond the scope of this post. However, the most important features involve the optimization of the following desirables…
• Cash flow and margins… credit card sales from company [and affiliate] web sites provides advance cash payment [and better margins] as against 30-day delayed accounts receivables from distributors and retailers. As an Amazon drop-ship retailer the company can have the best of all scenarios… on-line retailing power and credibility of Amazon… customer reviews on Amazon… better margins for the company… advanced credit card payment to the company… control over customer service and support… and consistent and clear messaging to the mass consumers.
• Push marketing… company [and affiliate] web sites coupled with e-mail campaigning are much more effective in the introductory phase push marketing than distributors and retailers.
• Pull marketing… third party review sources [like CNET] and retailers [like Amazon] are much more effective in advance stage pull marketing than distributors and retailers.
• Customer support & service… distributors [like Ingram Micro] and retailers [like Circuit City] are not really known for the type of customer service and support that is conducive to customer loyalty or customer satisfaction. RMAs, re-stocking and re-selling is an expensive process due to mishandling and neglect.
• Consistent and clear messaging… company web site, affiliate web sites and retailer Amazon web site allow the company better control over consistent and clear messaging to the mass consumers.
Tell Your Customer the Truth…
If products do make it to the customer home, many don't make it past the out-of-box experience. Not everyone is an early adopter with an appetite (or tolerance) for splashing around a sea of tech-speak to deal with hours-long product set-up guided by confounding directions, little-to-no customer support, and lots and lots of wires.
Well, that’s all I could muster on a sunny afternoon… while we patiently wait for more announcements and answers about production quantities of green lasers and shipments of SHOWwx to current OEMs and the Mobile phone customer Vodafone.
I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the subject.
Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be fine and at the end of the day the MVIS investor will come out whole.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Friday, January 22, 2010
Microvision: Time to Act Not Just React
The entire financial future of Microvision depends on fast modulating green laser supply and its cost in large quantities. Microvision management has been dealing with this green laser issue for almost two and half years.
Just to refresh your memory, if you recall, the first working PicoP projector using Osram SHG green laser was demoed in June of 2007. After two and half years, we are still talking about possible further delays due to green lasers. That is frustrating in itself.
However, what’s more frustrating is that during three CES expos in a row [CES 2008, CES 2009 and CES 2010) there hasn’t been any significant improvement or enhancement to Microvision’s PicoP technology or image quality. We can discredit the PC Magazine review as flawed, biased, and nothing more than hogwash all day… but the fact remains, there is always some fire where there is smoke!
Three years in a row Microvision has been burning bucket loads of cash… but demoed the same product [now called SHOWwx] at the CES 2008, CES 2009, and CES 2010. Even the analyst community and the media has picked-up on that. Why there was no effort to use the available time and resources to develop additional applications using PicoP display technology and derivatives of SHOWwx?
It takes a little while, but eventually this thing about secrets and supply chain partner delays doesn’t “cut the mustard” with the investor community. Microvision stock (MVIS) is in a free fall. It has been falling every day ever since CEO Alex Tokman posted his in-house interview at The Displayground website on January 7th, 2010… the same day CES 2010 expo opened.
It is very frustrating.
You can define frustration in many ways… but what’s been going-on at Microvision gives “frustration” a new meaning altogether.
We can add one more definition to the word frustration... waiting for definitive plans from Microvision while being told that the management will disclose them by CES 2008… then by 2009… and then by CES 2010.
How dare we worry about where our investment dollars are going when it's such a small part of the big picture of: “the holly grail of embedded PicoP projectors in the billion unit mobile world?” What frustrated me on January 7th, after listening to the CEO interview, was another set of delays and possible issues. It sounded like, and resonated with those in the industry that have been saying for years why a high speed modulating laser based PicoP will fail because of pricing and supply issue. I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the issue, but can somebody please throw some light on the green laser availability, pricing and stability issues as they affect the success of laser based PicoP projectors.
Here’re some more thoughts on frustration…
• Having the wool pulled over our eyes is frustrating;
• Waiting for concrete answers is frustrating;
• Having legitimate concerns brushed aside is frustrating;
• Being told to take the pain and ignore the small stuff is frustrating;
• Watching the stock price crash and then drift lower and lower is frustrating, too.
There is enough dry powder on the sidelines to send this market [and MVIS stock price] significantly higher, even into the plus column for the year. But, would-be buyers continue to be stymied as each day brings more questions rather than answers and we keep hearing how off base our concerns are. While panic has become the permanent aroma that greets investors each day, I sense frustration could be moving the Microvision stock price more than any other feeling these days, and certainly today.
I have received hundreds of e-mails and phone calls and I know that many folks just want to throw-in the towel out of frustration and a lack of confidence in the management of Microvision. Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be fine and at the end of the day the MVIS investor will come out whole.
Just frustrated!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Just to refresh your memory, if you recall, the first working PicoP projector using Osram SHG green laser was demoed in June of 2007. After two and half years, we are still talking about possible further delays due to green lasers. That is frustrating in itself.
However, what’s more frustrating is that during three CES expos in a row [CES 2008, CES 2009 and CES 2010) there hasn’t been any significant improvement or enhancement to Microvision’s PicoP technology or image quality. We can discredit the PC Magazine review as flawed, biased, and nothing more than hogwash all day… but the fact remains, there is always some fire where there is smoke!
Three years in a row Microvision has been burning bucket loads of cash… but demoed the same product [now called SHOWwx] at the CES 2008, CES 2009, and CES 2010. Even the analyst community and the media has picked-up on that. Why there was no effort to use the available time and resources to develop additional applications using PicoP display technology and derivatives of SHOWwx?
It takes a little while, but eventually this thing about secrets and supply chain partner delays doesn’t “cut the mustard” with the investor community. Microvision stock (MVIS) is in a free fall. It has been falling every day ever since CEO Alex Tokman posted his in-house interview at The Displayground website on January 7th, 2010… the same day CES 2010 expo opened.
It is very frustrating.
You can define frustration in many ways… but what’s been going-on at Microvision gives “frustration” a new meaning altogether.
We can add one more definition to the word frustration... waiting for definitive plans from Microvision while being told that the management will disclose them by CES 2008… then by 2009… and then by CES 2010.
How dare we worry about where our investment dollars are going when it's such a small part of the big picture of: “the holly grail of embedded PicoP projectors in the billion unit mobile world?” What frustrated me on January 7th, after listening to the CEO interview, was another set of delays and possible issues. It sounded like, and resonated with those in the industry that have been saying for years why a high speed modulating laser based PicoP will fail because of pricing and supply issue. I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the issue, but can somebody please throw some light on the green laser availability, pricing and stability issues as they affect the success of laser based PicoP projectors.
Here’re some more thoughts on frustration…
• Having the wool pulled over our eyes is frustrating;
• Waiting for concrete answers is frustrating;
• Having legitimate concerns brushed aside is frustrating;
• Being told to take the pain and ignore the small stuff is frustrating;
• Watching the stock price crash and then drift lower and lower is frustrating, too.
There is enough dry powder on the sidelines to send this market [and MVIS stock price] significantly higher, even into the plus column for the year. But, would-be buyers continue to be stymied as each day brings more questions rather than answers and we keep hearing how off base our concerns are. While panic has become the permanent aroma that greets investors each day, I sense frustration could be moving the Microvision stock price more than any other feeling these days, and certainly today.
I have received hundreds of e-mails and phone calls and I know that many folks just want to throw-in the towel out of frustration and a lack of confidence in the management of Microvision. Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be fine and at the end of the day the MVIS investor will come out whole.
Just frustrated!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Microvision: Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx Has the Best Image Quality
First, let me clearly state again that PC Magazine Review of SHOWwx is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Having said, let’s take a look at the projected image lumens issue again and explain why SHOWwx has the best image quality...
There are no industry standards [yet] for projected image quality!
However, projection industry players have aligned to set new standards. Here’s the link the article on this subject dated 1/7/2008…
http://news.websitegear.com/view/35069
This article states...
“From the classroom to the boardroom to the living room, vivid color improves communication-enhancing attention, comprehension and learning. Current industry specification metrics fail to highlight the differences in color light output among competing products and technologies -- leaving it virtually unreported. Despite the overwhelming use of color today, the industry has continued to rely largely on specifications that only measure black and white performance such as brightness and contrast ratio. There is growing consensus for the need for an effective, easy-to-use projector measurement metric -- Color Brightness.”
"Based on the existing industry-standard test, Color Brightness, like the current light output measure for brightness (white), is reported in lumens. Color Brightness specifies a projector's ability to deliver the primary colors of light. Today, all video; DVD, HD, digital camera and computer signals are encoded in an RGB color space. Color Brightness measures the brightness of red, green and blue, exactly matching the input signal. If a projector can produce bright red, green and blue equal to the brightness of white, it can reproduce the true color that the creators intended. If Color Brightness does not equal or come close to the white brightness, color images can appear dark, washed out and less accurate."
"Leading color experts agree. "Without this new metric, consumers are in the dark about color performance," commented Karl Lang, president of Lumita. "Two projectors that both advertise 2,000 (white) lumens can have vastly different color performance. Color brightness provides the information consumers have needed for a long time," continued Lang."
Currently, only psychophysical methods for estimating image quality are currently used and they are highly subjective. Here’s a quote from an industry expert on the subject…
“Don Williams, an image scientist from Eastman Kodak who facilitated the meeting, spoke both for imaging practitioners and for imaging scientists and other members of standards committees when he noted, "There appears to be somewhat of a consensus that there is not any reasonable way right now to look at all imaging performance measures without ambiguity."
“Subjective assessments are notoriously flawed, due not only to differences among human observers, but to limitations of devices that render images (monitors, printers), as well as the differences in ambient lighting in two or more viewing environments.”
“Intentional or unintentional use of imprecise terminology also creates ambiguity. For example, industry's marketing literature and our community's funding guidelines routinely associate image quality with unreliable metrics-such as resolution and bit depth. These performance characteristics refer to input settings and become ambiguous if used to describe output quality. The same source could be digitized by two systems that produce the same nominal results (e.g., 3,000 pixel, 24-bit RGB images) yet the quality of the images may differ significantly.”
The bottom line is, currently the manufactures [try] to differentiate their projected image quality in terms of “lumens”, “pixels” “bits”. That methodology may be fine for traditional bright lamp or LCD based image projectors. However, for laser projectors the use of lumens to define image quality is flawed… although the pixels and bits may still be useful metrics in defining the laser projection image quality.
First, let’s talk about “laser lumens” vs. “diffused light lumens”…
Laser light is very concentrated light at less than 1 degree deflection. So, 10 lumen laser light projected image [pixel by pixel] is 1,300 lumen light projection image from a traditional lamp/LCD projector about 100 inches away.
I am not the only one that agrees with that “psychophysical methods for estimating image quality”. Mr. Golan Manor, VP Technical Marketing for Explay, also happens to shares my views on the subject…
“As for actual image brightness, all of these devices project images in the range of 10 lumens. As Explay's Manor note, it's the equivalent of 1300 lumens projecting at 100 inches.”
Here’s the link to Mr. Golan Manor’s quote [at the end of the article]…
http://www.physorg.com/news94387529.html
I agree with Mr. Manor... not because he is right but also a picture speaks a thousand words.
Just take a look for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more weeks will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Having said, let’s take a look at the projected image lumens issue again and explain why SHOWwx has the best image quality...
There are no industry standards [yet] for projected image quality!
However, projection industry players have aligned to set new standards. Here’s the link the article on this subject dated 1/7/2008…
http://news.websitegear.com/view/35069
This article states...
“From the classroom to the boardroom to the living room, vivid color improves communication-enhancing attention, comprehension and learning. Current industry specification metrics fail to highlight the differences in color light output among competing products and technologies -- leaving it virtually unreported. Despite the overwhelming use of color today, the industry has continued to rely largely on specifications that only measure black and white performance such as brightness and contrast ratio. There is growing consensus for the need for an effective, easy-to-use projector measurement metric -- Color Brightness.”
"Based on the existing industry-standard test, Color Brightness, like the current light output measure for brightness (white), is reported in lumens. Color Brightness specifies a projector's ability to deliver the primary colors of light. Today, all video; DVD, HD, digital camera and computer signals are encoded in an RGB color space. Color Brightness measures the brightness of red, green and blue, exactly matching the input signal. If a projector can produce bright red, green and blue equal to the brightness of white, it can reproduce the true color that the creators intended. If Color Brightness does not equal or come close to the white brightness, color images can appear dark, washed out and less accurate."
"Leading color experts agree. "Without this new metric, consumers are in the dark about color performance," commented Karl Lang, president of Lumita. "Two projectors that both advertise 2,000 (white) lumens can have vastly different color performance. Color brightness provides the information consumers have needed for a long time," continued Lang."
Currently, only psychophysical methods for estimating image quality are currently used and they are highly subjective. Here’s a quote from an industry expert on the subject…
“Don Williams, an image scientist from Eastman Kodak who facilitated the meeting, spoke both for imaging practitioners and for imaging scientists and other members of standards committees when he noted, "There appears to be somewhat of a consensus that there is not any reasonable way right now to look at all imaging performance measures without ambiguity."
“Subjective assessments are notoriously flawed, due not only to differences among human observers, but to limitations of devices that render images (monitors, printers), as well as the differences in ambient lighting in two or more viewing environments.”
“Intentional or unintentional use of imprecise terminology also creates ambiguity. For example, industry's marketing literature and our community's funding guidelines routinely associate image quality with unreliable metrics-such as resolution and bit depth. These performance characteristics refer to input settings and become ambiguous if used to describe output quality. The same source could be digitized by two systems that produce the same nominal results (e.g., 3,000 pixel, 24-bit RGB images) yet the quality of the images may differ significantly.”
The bottom line is, currently the manufactures [try] to differentiate their projected image quality in terms of “lumens”, “pixels” “bits”. That methodology may be fine for traditional bright lamp or LCD based image projectors. However, for laser projectors the use of lumens to define image quality is flawed… although the pixels and bits may still be useful metrics in defining the laser projection image quality.
First, let’s talk about “laser lumens” vs. “diffused light lumens”…
Laser light is very concentrated light at less than 1 degree deflection. So, 10 lumen laser light projected image [pixel by pixel] is 1,300 lumen light projection image from a traditional lamp/LCD projector about 100 inches away.
I am not the only one that agrees with that “psychophysical methods for estimating image quality”. Mr. Golan Manor, VP Technical Marketing for Explay, also happens to shares my views on the subject…
“As for actual image brightness, all of these devices project images in the range of 10 lumens. As Explay's Manor note, it's the equivalent of 1300 lumens projecting at 100 inches.”
Here’s the link to Mr. Golan Manor’s quote [at the end of the article]…
http://www.physorg.com/news94387529.html
I agree with Mr. Manor... not because he is right but also a picture speaks a thousand words.
Just take a look for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more weeks will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Microvision: “What’s Your Business Growth Strategy”?
From the looks of it, Microvision stock seems to have stabilized and margin call related selling has subsided after 6 days of trading below the $3 mark.
Have to agree with you, that it hasn't been a walk in the park investing in Microvision. But then again, good things come to those that have the patience, knowledge, analytical fortitude and the power of belief to stay the course.
When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more months will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.
After listening to CEO Alex Tokman interview again, this is my reaction for whatever it is worth...
Microvision: What’s Your Business Growth Strategy?
Every business has to plan for growth and executives should make sure their growth plans are consistent with their dynamic business plan. A dynamic business plan is an updated version that is kept current to reflect the ever-changing business-operating environment. Especially in the technology and DOT.com businesses, where the product cycles are so short and consumer preferences are mostly dependent on the next hot product or service.
When it comes to growth plans, the two ends of the spectrum are, for example, should a company grow quickly and unprofitably, like Amazon and Hotmail [before it got acquired by Microsoft for $480 million], or slowly, with a careful eye on the bottom line, like Ben & Jerry's ice cream parlors? It all depends on what the competition is doing.
This report focuses on the challenges of growing a business and the importance of picking the right growth model that is consistent with your business plan and positions you for whatever your ultimate goal is. As the author sees it, there are three possible scenarios:
Number one: you want to be the gorilla of your industry in a hurry like Amazon.
Number two: you want to ramp-up your business fast and position for an acquisition like Hotmail.
Number three: you want to be a brick and mortar company producing steady profits like Ben & Jerry’s.
Regardless of what your business model is, the CEO and the CFO of the company need to formalize their business growth strategy and evangelize to the man in-charge of running the day-to-day operation of the business. Building a company is no small task? You've got one very important decision to make, because it affects everything else you do. No matter what else you do, you absolutely must figure out which camp you're in, and gear everything you do accordingly, or you're going to have a disaster on your hands.
THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS:
Whether to grow slowly, organically, and profitably, or whether to have a big bang with very fast growth with lots of capital spent in a hurry, that is the question?
The first model, popularly called "Get Big Fast" (a.k.a. "Land Grab"), requires you to raise a lot of capital, and work as quickly as possible to get big fast without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this the “Amazon”, because Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, has practically become the celebrity spokes-model for Get Big Fast.
The second model is called "Hotmail for Sale or Fail". Please note that Hotmail, before its acquisition by Microsoft, is the subject of our discussion here. And as for the name of our model “Hotmail for Sale or Fail”, I just made it up to make the point. This model requires you to raise only a small amount of capital, position for acquisition, and work as quickly as possible to build momentum to show there is promise of getting big fast… without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this “Hotmail” model, because Hotmail fits this model very well.
The third model, organic growth model, is to start small, with limited goals, and slowly build a business over a long period of time. I'm going to call this “Ben & Jerry’s” model, because Ben & Jerry’s fit this model pretty well.
The worst thing you can do is fail to decide whether you're going to be a Ben and Jerry's company, or a Hotmail company, or an Amazon company.
IN SUMMARY:
If you have the capability to raise tons of money, and you're going into a market with no existing competition, have lock-in and network/viral effects, you better use the Amazon model, or you're going the way of Wordsworth.com, which started two years before Amazon, but nobody's ever heard of them. Or even worse, you're going to be a ghost site like MSN Auctions with virtually no chance of ever overcoming eBay.
If you don’t have the ability to raise tons of money, and you're going into a market with no existing competition, have lock-in and network/viral effects, you better use the Hotmail.com model. Or you're going the way of the 95% of Amazon copycats, with weak capitalization, that have landed hard on their thin ass-set and nobody's ever heard of them.
If you're going into an established market, getting big fast is a fabulous way of wasting tons of money, as did BarnesandNoble.com. Your best hope is to do something sustainable and profitable, so that you have years to slowly take over your competition. You should start in one area, offer competitive prices, differentiate your services or offer variety of choices to create your customer base by getting customers to switch over from established competitors.
In closing, we should ask CEO Alex Tokman: “Microvision: What’s Your Business Growth Strategy?”
Anant Goel
PS: This post is based on a management report titled “… Technologies Business Growth Strategy” published by the author [Anant Goel] for a multi-million dollar company that was recently sold to a multi-billion dollar public company.
Have to agree with you, that it hasn't been a walk in the park investing in Microvision. But then again, good things come to those that have the patience, knowledge, analytical fortitude and the power of belief to stay the course.
When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more months will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.
After listening to CEO Alex Tokman interview again, this is my reaction for whatever it is worth...
Microvision: What’s Your Business Growth Strategy?
Every business has to plan for growth and executives should make sure their growth plans are consistent with their dynamic business plan. A dynamic business plan is an updated version that is kept current to reflect the ever-changing business-operating environment. Especially in the technology and DOT.com businesses, where the product cycles are so short and consumer preferences are mostly dependent on the next hot product or service.
When it comes to growth plans, the two ends of the spectrum are, for example, should a company grow quickly and unprofitably, like Amazon and Hotmail [before it got acquired by Microsoft for $480 million], or slowly, with a careful eye on the bottom line, like Ben & Jerry's ice cream parlors? It all depends on what the competition is doing.
This report focuses on the challenges of growing a business and the importance of picking the right growth model that is consistent with your business plan and positions you for whatever your ultimate goal is. As the author sees it, there are three possible scenarios:
Number one: you want to be the gorilla of your industry in a hurry like Amazon.
Number two: you want to ramp-up your business fast and position for an acquisition like Hotmail.
Number three: you want to be a brick and mortar company producing steady profits like Ben & Jerry’s.
Regardless of what your business model is, the CEO and the CFO of the company need to formalize their business growth strategy and evangelize to the man in-charge of running the day-to-day operation of the business. Building a company is no small task? You've got one very important decision to make, because it affects everything else you do. No matter what else you do, you absolutely must figure out which camp you're in, and gear everything you do accordingly, or you're going to have a disaster on your hands.
THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS:
Whether to grow slowly, organically, and profitably, or whether to have a big bang with very fast growth with lots of capital spent in a hurry, that is the question?
The first model, popularly called "Get Big Fast" (a.k.a. "Land Grab"), requires you to raise a lot of capital, and work as quickly as possible to get big fast without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this the “Amazon”, because Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, has practically become the celebrity spokes-model for Get Big Fast.
The second model is called "Hotmail for Sale or Fail". Please note that Hotmail, before its acquisition by Microsoft, is the subject of our discussion here. And as for the name of our model “Hotmail for Sale or Fail”, I just made it up to make the point. This model requires you to raise only a small amount of capital, position for acquisition, and work as quickly as possible to build momentum to show there is promise of getting big fast… without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this “Hotmail” model, because Hotmail fits this model very well.
The third model, organic growth model, is to start small, with limited goals, and slowly build a business over a long period of time. I'm going to call this “Ben & Jerry’s” model, because Ben & Jerry’s fit this model pretty well.
The worst thing you can do is fail to decide whether you're going to be a Ben and Jerry's company, or a Hotmail company, or an Amazon company.
IN SUMMARY:
If you have the capability to raise tons of money, and you're going into a market with no existing competition, have lock-in and network/viral effects, you better use the Amazon model, or you're going the way of Wordsworth.com, which started two years before Amazon, but nobody's ever heard of them. Or even worse, you're going to be a ghost site like MSN Auctions with virtually no chance of ever overcoming eBay.
If you don’t have the ability to raise tons of money, and you're going into a market with no existing competition, have lock-in and network/viral effects, you better use the Hotmail.com model. Or you're going the way of the 95% of Amazon copycats, with weak capitalization, that have landed hard on their thin ass-set and nobody's ever heard of them.
If you're going into an established market, getting big fast is a fabulous way of wasting tons of money, as did BarnesandNoble.com. Your best hope is to do something sustainable and profitable, so that you have years to slowly take over your competition. You should start in one area, offer competitive prices, differentiate your services or offer variety of choices to create your customer base by getting customers to switch over from established competitors.
In closing, we should ask CEO Alex Tokman: “Microvision: What’s Your Business Growth Strategy?”
Anant Goel
PS: This post is based on a management report titled “… Technologies Business Growth Strategy” published by the author [Anant Goel] for a multi-million dollar company that was recently sold to a multi-billion dollar public company.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Impact of Falling Dollar on Your Financial Future (Part 2)
Please make sure to read Part 1 first.
Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/impact-of-falling-dollar-on-your.html
There are four basic things to watch to get a feel for the direction of our equity markets in the year 2010.
This may be an oversimplified approach to tracking economic and business trends for an investor who drives his income from the equity markets. It has worked well in the past to keep me on the right side of the market [bullish or bearish] most of the time. However, there are several other weekly and monthly economic indicators that you may want to look at… if you are a trader with a shorter investment time span.
DOLLAR:
If the dollar rallies, the markets will pull back? And it certainly seems that that way if you are watching CNN or Bloomberg?
Over the long term, the dollar may go lower… and the markets may rally, assuming the interest rates don’t go thru the roof. However, dollar is currently very much oversold, and as a minimum the US dollar is due for some type of short-term bounce.
INTEREST RATES:
If the interest rates start to increase, the markets will pull back?
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been dropping hints recently that rates could go up later this year. The Federal Reserve Bank has [recently] been reducing its purchases of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has not said it will extend those purchases past the end of March. Those purchases have kept interest rates artificially low for months.
Look for interest rates to rise, not only after the end of March, but possibly even before then in anticipation of an end to those purchases.
REAL ESTATE:
In recent news, the American Bankers Association reported that while delinquencies on consumer loans have been falling recently… the delinquencies on home-equity loans are continuing to rise, due to unemployment and underemployment.
The delinquency rate for home-equity loans (fixed) as of the third quarter of 2009 was 4.3%. For home-equity lines of credit (variable rates), the delinquency rate was 2.12%.
Both of these delinquency rates are now all-time records.
Now another report from Fitch Ratings states that 9.2% of all prime jumbo loans (conventional loans over $417,000) are now delinquent. These are the types of mortgages that one would least expect to be in default.
However, residential properties are not the only problematic areas. Delinquencies on commercial mortgage-backed securities reached an all-time high of 6.07% in December, with hotel delinquencies up almost 900% to an astounding 14% rate.
All of these delinquents threaten to further depress both residential and commercial property values nationwide.
December brought an unexpected drop in pending home sales. This seemed to indicate that buyers were in no rush to buy, following the government's decision to extend the first-time homebuyer tax credit through April 30, 2010.
However, December 2009 closed sales (the only kind that count) were once again stronger than the previous year's same-month total, capping off a year that was far superior to 2008 in closed sales. This positive trend is likely to continue at least through April, which is when the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit will end… assuming it is not extended again.
So if you are planning on selling your home in 2010, I suggest that you get it on the market within the next month or two!
MORTGAGES:
Mortgage rates have been on the increase during the past two months, and the 30-year rate has once again moved above 5%. Fifteen-year fixed rates hover around 4.6%.
Adjustable-rate mortgages remain low (around 4.3%), and will probably continue to be that way until at least the second half of 2010, as the Federal Open Market Committee does not appear eager just yet to raise its overnight target rate.
The Federal Reserve has recently been reducing its purchases of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has not said it will extend those purchases past the end of March. Those purchases have kept interest rates artificially low for months.
Look for mortgage and home equity loan interest rates to rise, not only after the end of March, but possibly even before then in anticipation of an end to those purchases.
I hope it helps understand what we are up against in 2010.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/impact-of-falling-dollar-on-your.html
There are four basic things to watch to get a feel for the direction of our equity markets in the year 2010.
This may be an oversimplified approach to tracking economic and business trends for an investor who drives his income from the equity markets. It has worked well in the past to keep me on the right side of the market [bullish or bearish] most of the time. However, there are several other weekly and monthly economic indicators that you may want to look at… if you are a trader with a shorter investment time span.
DOLLAR:
If the dollar rallies, the markets will pull back? And it certainly seems that that way if you are watching CNN or Bloomberg?
Over the long term, the dollar may go lower… and the markets may rally, assuming the interest rates don’t go thru the roof. However, dollar is currently very much oversold, and as a minimum the US dollar is due for some type of short-term bounce.
INTEREST RATES:
If the interest rates start to increase, the markets will pull back?
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been dropping hints recently that rates could go up later this year. The Federal Reserve Bank has [recently] been reducing its purchases of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has not said it will extend those purchases past the end of March. Those purchases have kept interest rates artificially low for months.
Look for interest rates to rise, not only after the end of March, but possibly even before then in anticipation of an end to those purchases.
REAL ESTATE:
In recent news, the American Bankers Association reported that while delinquencies on consumer loans have been falling recently… the delinquencies on home-equity loans are continuing to rise, due to unemployment and underemployment.
The delinquency rate for home-equity loans (fixed) as of the third quarter of 2009 was 4.3%. For home-equity lines of credit (variable rates), the delinquency rate was 2.12%.
Both of these delinquency rates are now all-time records.
Now another report from Fitch Ratings states that 9.2% of all prime jumbo loans (conventional loans over $417,000) are now delinquent. These are the types of mortgages that one would least expect to be in default.
However, residential properties are not the only problematic areas. Delinquencies on commercial mortgage-backed securities reached an all-time high of 6.07% in December, with hotel delinquencies up almost 900% to an astounding 14% rate.
All of these delinquents threaten to further depress both residential and commercial property values nationwide.
December brought an unexpected drop in pending home sales. This seemed to indicate that buyers were in no rush to buy, following the government's decision to extend the first-time homebuyer tax credit through April 30, 2010.
However, December 2009 closed sales (the only kind that count) were once again stronger than the previous year's same-month total, capping off a year that was far superior to 2008 in closed sales. This positive trend is likely to continue at least through April, which is when the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit will end… assuming it is not extended again.
So if you are planning on selling your home in 2010, I suggest that you get it on the market within the next month or two!
MORTGAGES:
Mortgage rates have been on the increase during the past two months, and the 30-year rate has once again moved above 5%. Fifteen-year fixed rates hover around 4.6%.
Adjustable-rate mortgages remain low (around 4.3%), and will probably continue to be that way until at least the second half of 2010, as the Federal Open Market Committee does not appear eager just yet to raise its overnight target rate.
The Federal Reserve has recently been reducing its purchases of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has not said it will extend those purchases past the end of March. Those purchases have kept interest rates artificially low for months.
Look for mortgage and home equity loan interest rates to rise, not only after the end of March, but possibly even before then in anticipation of an end to those purchases.
I hope it helps understand what we are up against in 2010.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman
Dear Mr. Tokman:
Considering the further delays and continued issues with executing the green laser based product business plan, please consider cutting the overhead by at least 70%.
Smart money investors have already sold-off and left! Why continue with a burn rate that reflects high levels of product development and sales activity... when there is none? I say this after looking at [and not finding anything other than SHOWwx] at the CES 2010 show. And yes, I also looked at the on-line interview at least ten times... just to be sure that I got the intended message right.
Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx has been around for almost two years now and is already an old technology... so to speak. Granted, that laser based pico projectors will be a huge success someday... but that day or for that matter that year is not this year to put it bluntly.
It is time to take control of this green laser nonsense that has been making rounds for the last two years and explore alternate technologies such as pico projectors that work with slow modulating green lasers.
With the existing laser light technology as it is today, it is stretching the technology envelop little too far to achieve SHG green lasers that can reliably modulate at 100MHz. Also, you may have experienced success with MEMS mirrors with carbon fiber torsion arms that can modulate fast enough today... but what happens to them a year or two from now is anybody’s guess. Materials fatigue and fail at exponential rate at the high end of the stress cycle.
For God’s sake control costs and think survival over the next two years when technology will be ready to support your currently demanding product specifications.
Also, the embedded pico projectors could be the ultimate goal for mass adoption and profitability in the future... but the standalone SHOWwx and its derivatives can still make Microvision profitable this year.
Warm regards,
Anant Goel
Beaten, bruised and humbled investor of Microvision
Considering the further delays and continued issues with executing the green laser based product business plan, please consider cutting the overhead by at least 70%.
Smart money investors have already sold-off and left! Why continue with a burn rate that reflects high levels of product development and sales activity... when there is none? I say this after looking at [and not finding anything other than SHOWwx] at the CES 2010 show. And yes, I also looked at the on-line interview at least ten times... just to be sure that I got the intended message right.
Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx has been around for almost two years now and is already an old technology... so to speak. Granted, that laser based pico projectors will be a huge success someday... but that day or for that matter that year is not this year to put it bluntly.
It is time to take control of this green laser nonsense that has been making rounds for the last two years and explore alternate technologies such as pico projectors that work with slow modulating green lasers.
With the existing laser light technology as it is today, it is stretching the technology envelop little too far to achieve SHG green lasers that can reliably modulate at 100MHz. Also, you may have experienced success with MEMS mirrors with carbon fiber torsion arms that can modulate fast enough today... but what happens to them a year or two from now is anybody’s guess. Materials fatigue and fail at exponential rate at the high end of the stress cycle.
For God’s sake control costs and think survival over the next two years when technology will be ready to support your currently demanding product specifications.
Also, the embedded pico projectors could be the ultimate goal for mass adoption and profitability in the future... but the standalone SHOWwx and its derivatives can still make Microvision profitable this year.
Warm regards,
Anant Goel
Beaten, bruised and humbled investor of Microvision
Monday, January 11, 2010
Microvision: PC Magazine Review is Full of Crap, Flawed, and is Biased.
I say this...
Because David Stone, the PC Magazine review team leader, has taken the lazy man’s path to reviewing a high tech product and his inexperience with the laser display technology shows. PC Magazine review is basically a self centered pompous review that likes to start-off with “biased” and “pompous” conclusion as the introduction to a high tech product review. If you don’t know the meaning of pompous; then look-it-up in the dictionary! In the English language it means...
• Arrogant
• Pretentious
• Self-important
If Davis Stone was the recognized authority on lasers or laser based MEMS raster scanning display technology; then I would stay low and take him seriously. But that is not the case... as is obvious from many apparent mistakes in his review methodology and the dozens of reader comments fiercely debating and questioning PC Magazine review.
Now you can add me also to the list of those questioning Mr. Stone’s competence, experience and integrity as the self-proclaimed independent review authority.
This is how Mr. Stone starts off his “Image Quality” review of Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx...
Image Quality
“The ShowWX's image quality is disappointing at best and, unfortunately, probably better described as flawed. I measured the brightness at 8 lumens, which is a reasonable 80 percent of the claimed 10 lumens.”
Here’s the link to PC Magazine review...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp
Here’re a few points to start with that show how shallow the PC Magazine review really is...
1. Diffused light measurement techniques and devices are not [and should not be] used for measuring light output from pulsating [or modulating] laser light sources especially where the laser light is switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments. Only an ignorant and inexperienced reviewer would use the same tools and methodology for laser light MEMS raster scanning technology projectors [like SHOWwx] that they use for diffused light source projectors... pico or conventional.
2. Combination of diffused light source [lamp and LED] with LcoS panel puts out lumens whether you need them for projected images or not... thus creating background lighting and contributing to overall lumens readings. Laser based pico projectors, on the other hand, use coherent light source and it is the lumen light intensity of the pixels that should be measured... because that’s what the eye sees with dark background contributing to the high contrast ratio. This explains the flawed measurement of 8 lumens that was recorded by PC Magazine reviewer vs. the 10 lumens stated by Microvision.
3. Mr. Stone is wrong [and full of crap] in stating 8 lumens measured vs. the stated 10 lumens... because when correctly measured using the proper tools [and methodology] the Microvision laser pixels are at 10+ lumens. You can call Corning for yourself and verify that.
4. Also, when the laser light source is modulating at 100 MHz rate and completely switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments... the background lumens are almost nil... with the image pixels still at full 10+ lumen intensity. That explains everything we have seen and heard over the last year that tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.
5. The background lumens give washed out effect to the projected images. Background lumens may add to the total lumens, as is the case with LED/LcoS based pico projectors, but they also wash out the images. Did Mr. Stone do a side by side comparison of the projected images? I don’t think so!
Because if he did a side by side comparison, this is what he would see...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
6. Laser based pico projectors use coherent light source and it is the lumen light intensity of pixels that creates high intensity vivid colors. When the laser light source is switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments, the background lumens are almost nil... with the image pixels still at full intensity. That should explain the high contrast ratio of 5,000:1 for SHOWwx, where lasers are switched-off during periods of dark picture segments... without reducing the lumen intensity of the projected pixels. This is an energy conserving technique that Microvision uses that also gives it the high contrast ratio of 5,000:1 as a side benefit. Mr. Stone ignored to mention the color gamut, vivid color and high contrast ratio of the images projected by SHOWwx.
7. Pico projectors are designed for image viewing by humans and not by some rigged set-up that neutralizes the image enhancing techniques such as those incorporated by laser pico projector SHOWwx. For example, the “speckle” effect is inherent to laser based MEMS raster scanning display technology. And Microvision uses various techniques to minimize speckle to a point that is hardly noticeable to the naked eye. Now, if PC Magazine set-ups a rig, as part of their review, and then go looking for speckle then obviously they will find it... because they have effectively neutralized whatever Microvision designed into the SHOWwx to reduce speckle. To me that shows malice and an agenda to attack the main differentiating feature of SHOWwx... the image quality.
8. The green line at the bottom of the projected image is used for calibrating the SHG green lasers from Corning. The green line is intermittent and not visible to the naked eye... unless you go looking for it. The future generations of Microvision pico projectors will not be using this green laser calibrating feature. It is quite possible that the PC Magazine reviewer received an older SHOWwx using Corning green laser or the reviewed unit was out of calibration. Either way, one small blemish [or a pimple] on the face does not make your caring and loving wife an ugly beast... does it?
9. The SHOWwx uses red, green, and blue lasers and MEMS mirror to raster scan the images on the screen. That means it doesn't have a native resolution in the same sense as DLP, LCD, and LcoS projectors, which have a fixed number of cells or mirrors. It has a preferred resolution for optimal performance which Microvision pegs at 848 by 480 pixels, one of the variations on WVGA and also appropriate for the wide-format version of 480p video. Since Microvision’s picop display engine uses MEMS raster scanning at the heart of its technology, it has upward pathways to high definition resolution of large image [currently at 200”] projection... without any increase in the physical size of the display engine.
10. In the digital world, other than a word processor, black on white is not very common. It’s mostly a soft pleasing background like IBM blue. However, if you are stuck on comparing “black on white” then look at what Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx offers...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/0/P9M0FI7zMmo
Now let’s see what the competition has to offer?
Putting it mildly, PC Magazine review is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.
Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.
When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.
I don't think the PC Magazine reviewer is on the take nor has a grudge against Microvision. Two people can look at the same thing with different expectations and draw different conclusions. May be the reviewer got a bad unit or an older unit using first generation green laser from Corning or one that hadn't been calibrated properly.
However, the question is: “Who else is going to review the SHOWwx, what are they going to say about it, and what will their motivation be?”
There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased.
As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...
“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.
The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.
While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+...
At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.
Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09...
Now you tell me?
Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.
Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens!
You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.
PC Magazine review is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Because David Stone, the PC Magazine review team leader, has taken the lazy man’s path to reviewing a high tech product and his inexperience with the laser display technology shows. PC Magazine review is basically a self centered pompous review that likes to start-off with “biased” and “pompous” conclusion as the introduction to a high tech product review. If you don’t know the meaning of pompous; then look-it-up in the dictionary! In the English language it means...
• Arrogant
• Pretentious
• Self-important
If Davis Stone was the recognized authority on lasers or laser based MEMS raster scanning display technology; then I would stay low and take him seriously. But that is not the case... as is obvious from many apparent mistakes in his review methodology and the dozens of reader comments fiercely debating and questioning PC Magazine review.
Now you can add me also to the list of those questioning Mr. Stone’s competence, experience and integrity as the self-proclaimed independent review authority.
This is how Mr. Stone starts off his “Image Quality” review of Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx...
Image Quality
“The ShowWX's image quality is disappointing at best and, unfortunately, probably better described as flawed. I measured the brightness at 8 lumens, which is a reasonable 80 percent of the claimed 10 lumens.”
Here’s the link to PC Magazine review...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp
Here’re a few points to start with that show how shallow the PC Magazine review really is...
1. Diffused light measurement techniques and devices are not [and should not be] used for measuring light output from pulsating [or modulating] laser light sources especially where the laser light is switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments. Only an ignorant and inexperienced reviewer would use the same tools and methodology for laser light MEMS raster scanning technology projectors [like SHOWwx] that they use for diffused light source projectors... pico or conventional.
2. Combination of diffused light source [lamp and LED] with LcoS panel puts out lumens whether you need them for projected images or not... thus creating background lighting and contributing to overall lumens readings. Laser based pico projectors, on the other hand, use coherent light source and it is the lumen light intensity of the pixels that should be measured... because that’s what the eye sees with dark background contributing to the high contrast ratio. This explains the flawed measurement of 8 lumens that was recorded by PC Magazine reviewer vs. the 10 lumens stated by Microvision.
3. Mr. Stone is wrong [and full of crap] in stating 8 lumens measured vs. the stated 10 lumens... because when correctly measured using the proper tools [and methodology] the Microvision laser pixels are at 10+ lumens. You can call Corning for yourself and verify that.
4. Also, when the laser light source is modulating at 100 MHz rate and completely switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments... the background lumens are almost nil... with the image pixels still at full 10+ lumen intensity. That explains everything we have seen and heard over the last year that tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.
5. The background lumens give washed out effect to the projected images. Background lumens may add to the total lumens, as is the case with LED/LcoS based pico projectors, but they also wash out the images. Did Mr. Stone do a side by side comparison of the projected images? I don’t think so!
Because if he did a side by side comparison, this is what he would see...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
6. Laser based pico projectors use coherent light source and it is the lumen light intensity of pixels that creates high intensity vivid colors. When the laser light source is switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments, the background lumens are almost nil... with the image pixels still at full intensity. That should explain the high contrast ratio of 5,000:1 for SHOWwx, where lasers are switched-off during periods of dark picture segments... without reducing the lumen intensity of the projected pixels. This is an energy conserving technique that Microvision uses that also gives it the high contrast ratio of 5,000:1 as a side benefit. Mr. Stone ignored to mention the color gamut, vivid color and high contrast ratio of the images projected by SHOWwx.
7. Pico projectors are designed for image viewing by humans and not by some rigged set-up that neutralizes the image enhancing techniques such as those incorporated by laser pico projector SHOWwx. For example, the “speckle” effect is inherent to laser based MEMS raster scanning display technology. And Microvision uses various techniques to minimize speckle to a point that is hardly noticeable to the naked eye. Now, if PC Magazine set-ups a rig, as part of their review, and then go looking for speckle then obviously they will find it... because they have effectively neutralized whatever Microvision designed into the SHOWwx to reduce speckle. To me that shows malice and an agenda to attack the main differentiating feature of SHOWwx... the image quality.
8. The green line at the bottom of the projected image is used for calibrating the SHG green lasers from Corning. The green line is intermittent and not visible to the naked eye... unless you go looking for it. The future generations of Microvision pico projectors will not be using this green laser calibrating feature. It is quite possible that the PC Magazine reviewer received an older SHOWwx using Corning green laser or the reviewed unit was out of calibration. Either way, one small blemish [or a pimple] on the face does not make your caring and loving wife an ugly beast... does it?
9. The SHOWwx uses red, green, and blue lasers and MEMS mirror to raster scan the images on the screen. That means it doesn't have a native resolution in the same sense as DLP, LCD, and LcoS projectors, which have a fixed number of cells or mirrors. It has a preferred resolution for optimal performance which Microvision pegs at 848 by 480 pixels, one of the variations on WVGA and also appropriate for the wide-format version of 480p video. Since Microvision’s picop display engine uses MEMS raster scanning at the heart of its technology, it has upward pathways to high definition resolution of large image [currently at 200”] projection... without any increase in the physical size of the display engine.
10. In the digital world, other than a word processor, black on white is not very common. It’s mostly a soft pleasing background like IBM blue. However, if you are stuck on comparing “black on white” then look at what Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx offers...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/0/P9M0FI7zMmo
Now let’s see what the competition has to offer?
Putting it mildly, PC Magazine review is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.
Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.
When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.
I don't think the PC Magazine reviewer is on the take nor has a grudge against Microvision. Two people can look at the same thing with different expectations and draw different conclusions. May be the reviewer got a bad unit or an older unit using first generation green laser from Corning or one that hadn't been calibrated properly.
However, the question is: “Who else is going to review the SHOWwx, what are they going to say about it, and what will their motivation be?”
There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased.
As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...
“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.
The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.
While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+...
At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.
Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09...
Now you tell me?
Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.
Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens!
You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.
PC Magazine review is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Microvision: Perfect Storm CES 2010
These may sound like harsh words coming from one of the very staunch supporters of Microvision team. However, they need to be said at this juncture...
What we have seen over the past 48 hours is the “perfect storm” brewing in the future of Microvision. It started with Asia Optical making public comments [as perceived] in the media about TI having the best pico solution for embedded applications. It picked-up more gale force after the in-house staged CEO interview where Alex indicated more delays and future uncertainties. It became a perfect storm of hurricane force magnitude over the PC Magazine review of SHOWwx.
Individually these negative issues are easy to deal with because they have a reasonable explanation... and as such may or may not have an impact on the MVIS share price in the short term. However, collectively they are the recipe for a “perfect storm” and may precipitate an investor sell-off first and then look for explanation later... and that could be very damaging to the overall investor psyche.
Over the last two trading days the stock price has dropped almost 20% and seems to be holding at $2.92 for now. Is there further decline possible; that’s the next question in our minds?
Let’s take a look, shall we...
Asia Optical Comments about TI Pico Solution:
Asia Optical is a relatively new supply chain partner of Microvision with a relationship that formed just over a year ago. When AO makes comments that favor TI pico solution; it is understandable since Asia Optical has years of existing and ongoing relationship with them. So we can put that aside and consider it a minor twister in the way large corporations stick together and pay more attention to their current revenue source rather than go out of their way to support the business plan of a newcomer [like Microvision] with a glowing future potential.
Granted, that AO could have said something complimentary to TI without stating the “DLP pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency”. When you look at the choice of words that AO used, it is easy to mistakenly take it as saying that DLP pico(TM) solution is the best for embedded applications. Asia Optical knows that pico(TM) is the registered trade mark of Microvision. And DLP pico solution may not be the best when compared to laser based PicoP solution from Microvision for embedded applications. However, there are no embedded pico display engines from Microvision to be found on planet earth as yet. So, considering the existing pico technologies out there currently; the DLP pico solution is perhaps the most compelling solution etc. etc.
Read again what it says in the January 6th Press Release...
"Following an extensive comparison of all pico technology options we selected DLP Pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency," said Robert Lai, founder, chairman and CEO of Asia Optical. "We believe the market opportunity for embedded displays in consumer electronics products, such as digital still cameras and digital video cameras, is significant and we are excited to launch the first product with DLP very soon."
Here’s the link...
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/LA32932.htm
Interview with Microvision CEO Alex Tokman:
On January 6th, Alex Tokman gave an interview that was posted at the company’s blog site The Displayground.
Here’s the link to the interview...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
First, I must congratulate the management for taking the bold initiative to communicate with the stakeholders at the blog in such an informal setting. The Displayground has been a leap of faith in the way a corporation, such as Microvision, has embraced the Internet to communicate with its stakeholders.
Having said that, any effort to communicate with the stakeholders is to be commended!
However, Investors of Microvision have such high expectations of the management that at first blush the interview looks so stiff and staged. But when you look at the interview again and pay more attention to the subject matter, rather than watch the body language of Alex Tokman, it kind of grows on you. We, as investors, must realize that video interviews with corporate CEOs that are conducted in an in-house informal setting to communicate are not a very common practice. They may look staged initially but they certainly will get better as they become more frequent and with some practice.
Now let’s get to the center of this “perfect storm”...
It’s not very often, if ever, that you see the CEO of a company give an informal interview to release information that could have some serious consequences to not only its stock price but also raise questions about the credibility of its CEO. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what this interview did... precipitate a stock sell-off and, in my opinion, seriously damaged the credibility to Microvision CEO.
Both the timing and the intended [or unintended] information disseminated at this interview left the investors with a perception of further delays in green laser production and also delays in the release of pico display engine evaluation units for embedded applications.
First the timing...
The timing of this in-house interview with Microvision CEO couldn’t have been the worst move in the history of Microvision. It tops all the other “blunders” the top Management [past and present] has made over the years. In my opinion, it takes the “Last Blooper Standing” award of the year and effectively neutralizes any positive impact of the CES 2010 award that Microvision received as the “Last Gadget Standing” for its SHOWwx projector.
Bloopers happen usually as accidental, and usually has humor when it happens. Where actors need to memorize large numbers of lines or perform a series of actions in quick succession, mistakes can be expected. Some common examples include:
• Uncontrollable laughter (called in television circles, corpsing);
• Unanticipated incidents (like constant figiding);
• Forgotten lines; or
• Deliberate sabotage of an actor's performance by a fellow actor (to evoke laughter).
Unfortunately, this CEO interview did not evoke any laughter... but caused damage by precipitating MVIS stock sell-off and raised questions about Alex Tokman’s already fragile credibility as a CEO. We can blame Corning, Osram and green lasers for all of Microvision’s current problems all day... but at the end of the day it all falls in the lap of the CEO.
PC Magazine Review:
On January 7th, PC Magazine published their findings of SHOWwx pico projector review. Boy, oh boy! Talk about perfect timing to join in the storm brewing at Microvision.
First, here’s the link...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp
Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.
Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.
When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.
I don't think the PC Magazine reviewer is on the take nor has a grudge against Microvision. Two people can look at the same thing with different expectations and draw different conclusions. May be the reviewer got a bad unit or one that hadn't been calibrated properly.”
However, the question is: “Who else is going to review the SHOWwx, what are they going to say about it, and what will their motivation be?”
There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased. And that will be the subject of my next post.
For one quick example of why PC Magazine reviews of SHOWwx is flawed...
Diffused light measurement techniques and devices are not [and should not be] used for measuring light output from pulsating [or modulating] laser light sources especially where the laser light is switched on/off during periods of dark picture areas. Diffused light sources put out lumens whether you need them for projected images or not... and that should explain the disparity in very simple words.
PC Magazine is wrong in stating 8 lumens measured vs. the stated 10 lumens... because when correctly measured the Microvision laser pixels are at 10+ lumens. You can call Corning for yourself and verify that.
As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...
“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.
The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.
While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+transformed+into+tech+lover+paradise/2417678/story.html
At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.
Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09/and-the-winners-are/
Now you tell me?
Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens!
You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.
PC Magazine review is flawed and biased.
Read all about it in my next post.
In closing this post...
The stakes here are very high, and we are worried that Microvision management underestimates the things they need to do, as well as, the things their competitors will do to gain advantage in the pico projector marketplace. Obviously, Microvision management did not see this “perfect storm” coming and apparently has no contingency plan.
Microvision does have the financial backing to survive the “perfect storm” over the next 3 to 4 Qtrs. However, it will take some more financing money and Management charisma to pull out of this Perfect Storm on its own... considering the investor dissent brewing on the horizon.
I can't wait to see what's in store for tomorrow? Perhaps some more down-side and margin calls for the long investors.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
What we have seen over the past 48 hours is the “perfect storm” brewing in the future of Microvision. It started with Asia Optical making public comments [as perceived] in the media about TI having the best pico solution for embedded applications. It picked-up more gale force after the in-house staged CEO interview where Alex indicated more delays and future uncertainties. It became a perfect storm of hurricane force magnitude over the PC Magazine review of SHOWwx.
Individually these negative issues are easy to deal with because they have a reasonable explanation... and as such may or may not have an impact on the MVIS share price in the short term. However, collectively they are the recipe for a “perfect storm” and may precipitate an investor sell-off first and then look for explanation later... and that could be very damaging to the overall investor psyche.
Over the last two trading days the stock price has dropped almost 20% and seems to be holding at $2.92 for now. Is there further decline possible; that’s the next question in our minds?
Let’s take a look, shall we...
Asia Optical Comments about TI Pico Solution:
Asia Optical is a relatively new supply chain partner of Microvision with a relationship that formed just over a year ago. When AO makes comments that favor TI pico solution; it is understandable since Asia Optical has years of existing and ongoing relationship with them. So we can put that aside and consider it a minor twister in the way large corporations stick together and pay more attention to their current revenue source rather than go out of their way to support the business plan of a newcomer [like Microvision] with a glowing future potential.
Granted, that AO could have said something complimentary to TI without stating the “DLP pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency”. When you look at the choice of words that AO used, it is easy to mistakenly take it as saying that DLP pico(TM) solution is the best for embedded applications. Asia Optical knows that pico(TM) is the registered trade mark of Microvision. And DLP pico solution may not be the best when compared to laser based PicoP solution from Microvision for embedded applications. However, there are no embedded pico display engines from Microvision to be found on planet earth as yet. So, considering the existing pico technologies out there currently; the DLP pico solution is perhaps the most compelling solution etc. etc.
Read again what it says in the January 6th Press Release...
"Following an extensive comparison of all pico technology options we selected DLP Pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency," said Robert Lai, founder, chairman and CEO of Asia Optical. "We believe the market opportunity for embedded displays in consumer electronics products, such as digital still cameras and digital video cameras, is significant and we are excited to launch the first product with DLP very soon."
Here’s the link...
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/LA32932.htm
Interview with Microvision CEO Alex Tokman:
On January 6th, Alex Tokman gave an interview that was posted at the company’s blog site The Displayground.
Here’s the link to the interview...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
First, I must congratulate the management for taking the bold initiative to communicate with the stakeholders at the blog in such an informal setting. The Displayground has been a leap of faith in the way a corporation, such as Microvision, has embraced the Internet to communicate with its stakeholders.
Having said that, any effort to communicate with the stakeholders is to be commended!
However, Investors of Microvision have such high expectations of the management that at first blush the interview looks so stiff and staged. But when you look at the interview again and pay more attention to the subject matter, rather than watch the body language of Alex Tokman, it kind of grows on you. We, as investors, must realize that video interviews with corporate CEOs that are conducted in an in-house informal setting to communicate are not a very common practice. They may look staged initially but they certainly will get better as they become more frequent and with some practice.
Now let’s get to the center of this “perfect storm”...
It’s not very often, if ever, that you see the CEO of a company give an informal interview to release information that could have some serious consequences to not only its stock price but also raise questions about the credibility of its CEO. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what this interview did... precipitate a stock sell-off and, in my opinion, seriously damaged the credibility to Microvision CEO.
Both the timing and the intended [or unintended] information disseminated at this interview left the investors with a perception of further delays in green laser production and also delays in the release of pico display engine evaluation units for embedded applications.
First the timing...
The timing of this in-house interview with Microvision CEO couldn’t have been the worst move in the history of Microvision. It tops all the other “blunders” the top Management [past and present] has made over the years. In my opinion, it takes the “Last Blooper Standing” award of the year and effectively neutralizes any positive impact of the CES 2010 award that Microvision received as the “Last Gadget Standing” for its SHOWwx projector.
Bloopers happen usually as accidental, and usually has humor when it happens. Where actors need to memorize large numbers of lines or perform a series of actions in quick succession, mistakes can be expected. Some common examples include:
• Uncontrollable laughter (called in television circles, corpsing);
• Unanticipated incidents (like constant figiding);
• Forgotten lines; or
• Deliberate sabotage of an actor's performance by a fellow actor (to evoke laughter).
Unfortunately, this CEO interview did not evoke any laughter... but caused damage by precipitating MVIS stock sell-off and raised questions about Alex Tokman’s already fragile credibility as a CEO. We can blame Corning, Osram and green lasers for all of Microvision’s current problems all day... but at the end of the day it all falls in the lap of the CEO.
PC Magazine Review:
On January 7th, PC Magazine published their findings of SHOWwx pico projector review. Boy, oh boy! Talk about perfect timing to join in the storm brewing at Microvision.
First, here’s the link...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp
Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.
Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.
When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.
I don't think the PC Magazine reviewer is on the take nor has a grudge against Microvision. Two people can look at the same thing with different expectations and draw different conclusions. May be the reviewer got a bad unit or one that hadn't been calibrated properly.”
However, the question is: “Who else is going to review the SHOWwx, what are they going to say about it, and what will their motivation be?”
There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased. And that will be the subject of my next post.
For one quick example of why PC Magazine reviews of SHOWwx is flawed...
Diffused light measurement techniques and devices are not [and should not be] used for measuring light output from pulsating [or modulating] laser light sources especially where the laser light is switched on/off during periods of dark picture areas. Diffused light sources put out lumens whether you need them for projected images or not... and that should explain the disparity in very simple words.
PC Magazine is wrong in stating 8 lumens measured vs. the stated 10 lumens... because when correctly measured the Microvision laser pixels are at 10+ lumens. You can call Corning for yourself and verify that.
As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...
“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.
The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.
While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+transformed+into+tech+lover+paradise/2417678/story.html
At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.
Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09/and-the-winners-are/
Now you tell me?
Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens!
You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.
PC Magazine review is flawed and biased.
Read all about it in my next post.
In closing this post...
The stakes here are very high, and we are worried that Microvision management underestimates the things they need to do, as well as, the things their competitors will do to gain advantage in the pico projector marketplace. Obviously, Microvision management did not see this “perfect storm” coming and apparently has no contingency plan.
Microvision does have the financial backing to survive the “perfect storm” over the next 3 to 4 Qtrs. However, it will take some more financing money and Management charisma to pull out of this Perfect Storm on its own... considering the investor dissent brewing on the horizon.
I can't wait to see what's in store for tomorrow? Perhaps some more down-side and margin calls for the long investors.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Microvision: Trading Alert on Our Core Holdings
January 6, 2010 11:00 AM
After Monday's explosion through 12-month highs, stocks treaded water yesterday as traders caught their breath and appraised the current state of the market.
"As goes January, so goes the rest of the year," has been one of those oft-repeated sayings on Wall Street for decades. If that's the case, then the year has blasted off to a strong start.
Even yesterday's mild hesitation is to be expected, as investors study the various possible stock and sector choices before making the leap of faith. Before that leap, traders usually want to know what immediate risks versus rewards there are at the current trading level.
For the Dow, the current support starts at the breakout level of 10,500 and has a bottom at 10,300. Within that trading spread are both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. A penetration of this zone [to the downside] would be serious enough to have traders liquidate positions at small losses since the near-term trend would be in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
For the S&P 500, the current support starts at the breakout level of 1,135 and has a bottom at 1,090. Within that trading spread are both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. A penetration of this zone [to the downside] would be serious enough to have traders liquidate positions at small losses since the near-term trend would be in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Now we have some idea of the risk... so what is the possible reward?
First, the market clearly demonstrated by Monday's action that the bull market has been newly confirmed and the market is in a powerful uptrend. Traders will want to watch specific targets to take profits, like the first area of resistance at Dow 10,500 to 11,150, and then to 11,800. But longer-term investors may wish to hold for even bigger gains since the indications are strong that sometime within the next two years the Dow could reach its former high of 14,000 plus.
Trading Alert on Our Core Holdings
Microvision [MVIS]: Over the last three trading days, the MVIS stock has moved up very quickly from $3.07 to $3.60 this morning on some heavy volume indicating institutional buying.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
There are essentially two reasons...
1. There is some favorable press release from Microvision this morning before the start of CES 2010 Expo. Here’s the link...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvisions-SHOWWX-Puts-bw-1845964462.html?x=0&.v=1
It says...
“Interest and demand for this product is very strong and we’re excited to have the SHOWWX as our center piece at CES,” stated Ian Brown, Microvision Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “We have created a unique and engaging presentation for attendees which is sure to drive awareness of the product’s key features and benefits. We look forward to introducing the product in additional customer channels during 2010, with a planned Microvision direct campaign in the U.S. targeted for March.”
2. Last night, Microvision was at the CES media event called “CES Unveiled”. Over 800 media attended to get their first peak at some of the top innovations being exhibited at CES. SHOWWX was awarded a 2010 CES Innovations Honoree Award in the mobile accessories category, and as a result they garnered a lot of attention from the press. At times there were twenty people deep in front of Microvision demo area. According to CES there are over 6000 registered media coming to CES, so on the media front Microvision will be very busy and expects to get extensive media coverage. Today Microvision will be finishing the build-up of their tradeshow booth and add final touches to their presentations for the week. Expect to see both video and photos posted at Microvision blog at The Displayground...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Quirky, innovative gadgets have chance to shine at CES...
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/life-tech/uncategorized/2010/01/quirky-innovative-gadgets-have-chance-to-shine-at-ces/
Media coverage at CES 2010...
http://www.tommerritt.com/?p=1244&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.golem.de/1001/72206.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkOILshW8Cs
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
CES 2010 Expo is conducting an on-line contest named “Last Gadget Standing” and Microvision’s laser PicoP projector SHOWwx is currently the front runner among the top 25 contestants. If you’ll be in Las Vegas this week, raise your hand — to help crown SHOWwx as the “Last Gadget Standing” on Saturday, 10:30 a.m., Jan. 9, in Room N255-257, in the Las Vegas Convention Center’s North Hall.
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/ballot-box/
Here's the link to a brief interview with Alexander Tokman. Topics include CES 2010, the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector and PicoP® embedded technology...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTvhwr8nTSM
Recommendation: Maintain long position with our core stock holding and add at prices below $3.48.
Apple [AAPL]: Maintain [net] long position with our options income strategy. However, keep an eye for the next resistance level at $215 on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aapl&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
Emerging Markets ETF [EEM]: Maintain [net] long position with our options income strategy. However, keep an eye for breakout from the triple top formation at $42 on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=eem&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
Our current Model Portfolio is cautiously bullish and is 50% invested in stocks and options... with the rest in cash. There is no need for further diversification at this time.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
After Monday's explosion through 12-month highs, stocks treaded water yesterday as traders caught their breath and appraised the current state of the market.
"As goes January, so goes the rest of the year," has been one of those oft-repeated sayings on Wall Street for decades. If that's the case, then the year has blasted off to a strong start.
Even yesterday's mild hesitation is to be expected, as investors study the various possible stock and sector choices before making the leap of faith. Before that leap, traders usually want to know what immediate risks versus rewards there are at the current trading level.
For the Dow, the current support starts at the breakout level of 10,500 and has a bottom at 10,300. Within that trading spread are both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. A penetration of this zone [to the downside] would be serious enough to have traders liquidate positions at small losses since the near-term trend would be in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
For the S&P 500, the current support starts at the breakout level of 1,135 and has a bottom at 1,090. Within that trading spread are both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. A penetration of this zone [to the downside] would be serious enough to have traders liquidate positions at small losses since the near-term trend would be in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Now we have some idea of the risk... so what is the possible reward?
First, the market clearly demonstrated by Monday's action that the bull market has been newly confirmed and the market is in a powerful uptrend. Traders will want to watch specific targets to take profits, like the first area of resistance at Dow 10,500 to 11,150, and then to 11,800. But longer-term investors may wish to hold for even bigger gains since the indications are strong that sometime within the next two years the Dow could reach its former high of 14,000 plus.
Trading Alert on Our Core Holdings
Microvision [MVIS]: Over the last three trading days, the MVIS stock has moved up very quickly from $3.07 to $3.60 this morning on some heavy volume indicating institutional buying.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
There are essentially two reasons...
1. There is some favorable press release from Microvision this morning before the start of CES 2010 Expo. Here’s the link...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvisions-SHOWWX-Puts-bw-1845964462.html?x=0&.v=1
It says...
“Interest and demand for this product is very strong and we’re excited to have the SHOWWX as our center piece at CES,” stated Ian Brown, Microvision Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “We have created a unique and engaging presentation for attendees which is sure to drive awareness of the product’s key features and benefits. We look forward to introducing the product in additional customer channels during 2010, with a planned Microvision direct campaign in the U.S. targeted for March.”
2. Last night, Microvision was at the CES media event called “CES Unveiled”. Over 800 media attended to get their first peak at some of the top innovations being exhibited at CES. SHOWWX was awarded a 2010 CES Innovations Honoree Award in the mobile accessories category, and as a result they garnered a lot of attention from the press. At times there were twenty people deep in front of Microvision demo area. According to CES there are over 6000 registered media coming to CES, so on the media front Microvision will be very busy and expects to get extensive media coverage. Today Microvision will be finishing the build-up of their tradeshow booth and add final touches to their presentations for the week. Expect to see both video and photos posted at Microvision blog at The Displayground...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Quirky, innovative gadgets have chance to shine at CES...
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/life-tech/uncategorized/2010/01/quirky-innovative-gadgets-have-chance-to-shine-at-ces/
Media coverage at CES 2010...
http://www.tommerritt.com/?p=1244&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.golem.de/1001/72206.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkOILshW8Cs
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
CES 2010 Expo is conducting an on-line contest named “Last Gadget Standing” and Microvision’s laser PicoP projector SHOWwx is currently the front runner among the top 25 contestants. If you’ll be in Las Vegas this week, raise your hand — to help crown SHOWwx as the “Last Gadget Standing” on Saturday, 10:30 a.m., Jan. 9, in Room N255-257, in the Las Vegas Convention Center’s North Hall.
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/ballot-box/
Here's the link to a brief interview with Alexander Tokman. Topics include CES 2010, the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector and PicoP® embedded technology...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTvhwr8nTSM
Recommendation: Maintain long position with our core stock holding and add at prices below $3.48.
Apple [AAPL]: Maintain [net] long position with our options income strategy. However, keep an eye for the next resistance level at $215 on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aapl&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
Emerging Markets ETF [EEM]: Maintain [net] long position with our options income strategy. However, keep an eye for breakout from the triple top formation at $42 on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=eem&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
Our current Model Portfolio is cautiously bullish and is 50% invested in stocks and options... with the rest in cash. There is no need for further diversification at this time.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
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