Friday, January 29, 2010

Microvision: Announces March 2010 Launch of Laser Projector SHOWwx in the US Market (Updated)

Microvision will launch SHOWwx in the US market with about 10, 000 units in the first Qtr. of 2010.

Having said that, there is no better way to communicate the answer to green laser supply question that we all have been asking all this time, than to say it, as it is, when I stumbled upon this information.

“If you shake the tree long enough in the hopes of catching some falling fruits, sometimes you may find the monkey drop in your lap instead.”

Well, someone that I have known for sometime and respect admirably just dropped the monkey in my lap. This person is in the loop for this kind of information and has fairly good handle on green laser production estimates from Corning and Osram for the next four Qtrs. And this information is being shared here under promise of anonymity.

So, without further ado, here’s what it looks like…

First, I have been asked to emphasize that these are very conservative numbers; and assume Osram coming on board towards the end of February, and Corning ramping production beginning March.

First Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the first Qtr are expected to be over 10,000 units. Microvision will launch SHOWwx in the US market with about 10, 000 units in the first Qtr. 2010.

“Yields at Osram and Corning are improving and there are reasons to believe that we have some official good news coming-up on the horizon.”

Hopefully, we will hear about it soon. And that surely will calm the retail investor nerves. Currently, the MVIS stock price reflects the most pessimistic view of green laser shipments from Microvision supply chain partners.

Second Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the second Qtr are expected to be over 20,000 units… doubling production Qtr over Qtr.

Third Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the third Qtr are expected to be over 40,000 units… doubling production Qtr over Qtr.

Fourth Qtr 2010:
Quantities in the fourth Qtr are expected to be over 80,000 units… doubling production Qtr over Qtr.

If you do the math, it looks like 150,000 units for the year 2010. Now what’s interesting are the first Qtr 2011 numbers… over 160,000 units. In other words beginning first Qtr 2011, the green laser supply will not be the sales constraining issue… it may well be the sales generation issue.

Q: Would there be an official Microvision announcement?
A: Yes, I’m counting on that in the next few weeks or less… perhaps in early March. It may not be what the pessimists want to hear... but it certainly would please the cautiously optimists.

Microvision CEO Alex Tokman announced March 2010 as the launch date for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in to the US market. He also indicated that Microvision will sell them from its own corporate website rather than collaborate with an OEM at this time.

You can watch this interview of January 7th at the following link…

Microvision had officially launched SHOWwx into the Asia/Pacific region in September of 2009 followed by Europe /Spain soon thereafter. As we all know, the green laser supply and its price has been the major issue all along and it made sense that the small available quantities be introduced in relatively smaller markets… especially in those regions of the world where Microvision can fetch the maximum pricing leverage due to weak dollar.

As for the US market, it is huge and is also the home to thousands of Microvision’s VIP members. In other words, Microvision has a very large captive market for its initial production of SHOWwx using green lasers from Corning and Osram. Corning was able to produce very limited quantities of green lasers in 2009… but with Osram coming on board in February of this year, the green laser supply is improving dramatically.

Today, we closed at $1.96 and it seems like we may have found the bottom.

Here’s why…

As the selling intensifies, more and more people start to wake up to the change that has taken place in the market and then start selling.

This selling further accelerates and extends the down move until we finally reach the capitulation point where all the people who have been hanging on finally quit in disgust and sell at the bottom.

There are a lot of disgusted and angry investors of Microvision prowling the message boards over the last few days, and I really think we have seen the capitulation point today.

Have we reached the bottom?

I think so and at these deeply discounted prices it makes good sense to aggressively start accumulating.

Anant Goel