Friday, March 27, 2015

Technology and Social Paradigm Shift ─ Laser Pico Projection to Change the Way We View our World

There is paradigm shift coming and the pico projector market is estimated to reach $9.32 billion by 2020; growing at a CAGR of 39.82% from 2014 to 2020.

[Note: Think of a Paradigm Shift as a change from one way of thinking to another. It's a revolution, a transformation, a sort of metamorphosis. It just does not happen, but rather it is driven by agents of change.]

I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection "standalone" space... like 3M with LcoS, TI with DLP, and MicroVision with Laser Beam Scanning technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, MicroVision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” or “standalone” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

MicroVision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…

When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.

Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?

When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.

What’s MicroVision “Killer App”?

It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”.  What makes MicroVision’s PicoP display engine technology as "Killer App" in simple terms?

1.  Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.

2.  Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.

3.  Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.

4.  Large projected images [up to 250”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.

5.  High Definition 720P images at 32 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 50 lumen or more brightness in 2015.

6.  Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology has matured and economies of scale are achieved in 2015.  For example, synthetic green lasers [SGLs] were priced at around $120 each… whereas the diode green lasers [with higher light energy output and efficiency] are currently priced at less than $5 in quantities.

7.  Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next. 

8.  Social Change from the way we share information now to the way it will be shared in the future.

The PicoP display engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to MicroVision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PicoP display engine to the rest of MicroVision product line of applications that are currently under development.

Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisers compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!

Well, MicroVision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your MicroVision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.

But that will change in the next 2 Qtrs: when the earnings report will show $8 million in licensing fee and $14.5 million in proprietary components order [and future royalties] from SONY… and increasing sales of technology development and licensing from 10 or so Consumer Electronics giants from US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.

When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in MicroVision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 3 to 5 years.

Is MicroVision ready for prime time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

In three to five years from now in 2017, the stock could easily trade in the $100 to $400 range. 

No matter how you slice-it or dice-it, MicroVision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

MicroVision’s PicoP display engine could also lead the “standalone” rat pack [with its Celluon PicoAir projector for example] because of the following...

Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) will make the MicroVision's PicoP projector at par with competition... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

“A wide angle view means that MicroVision PicoP projector can show a wider screen at closer distant!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With MicroVision PicoP projector you get…

“A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus”.

Laser based PicoP projectors will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector [with DLP or LcoS] every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

MicroVision PicoP projector has better image quality [at 80,000 to 1 contrast ratio] and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using.  The use of diffused light source, like LEDs or lamps, causes the "torch light" effect... meaning the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

MicroVision’s PicoP projectors can go from 12inch to 250inch image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what MicroVision is offering. We will soon find out what [else] MicroVision has to offer when Celluon PicoAir [currently at 32 lumen] comes out with 50 lumen and higher brightness.

Celluon’s PicoAir [using MicroVision PicoP display engine] was launched this January and is currently shipping… and is getting raving reviews. Competition, like 3M and TI, have their LED based Pico projectors on the market for over four years… but they are not selling too well… and their prices keep coming down almost every month.

According to the new market research report "Pico Projector Market - Forecasts to 2020", the pico projector market is estimated to reach $9.32 billion by 2020; growing at a CAGR of 39.82% from 2014 to 2020.

However, the laser based PicoP projector market is expected to grow at must faster rate CAGR of 56.95% and take-off in 2014.

Here’s an excerpt from the independent study

“The technology market entails three major types including Digital Light Processing (DLP), Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCOS), and Laser Beam Steering (LBS). Currently, the majority of pico projectors are being developed based on DLP technology, however it has been estimated that in future, pico projectors would be mostly based on laser technology. DLP accounted for a market share of 56.90% in 2014 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.53% between 2014 and 2020. Laser Beam Steering (LBS) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 56.95% between 2014 and 2020.”

Competition is good and will help with faster adoption of the Pico projector by the billion plus unit market. To be a huge [financial] success, MicroVision needs only a small percentage of the overall market that finally adopts the technology.

My money is “still” on MicroVision. However, I am keeping an eye on the competition… including TI, 3M and Syndiant.

For an in-depth report on “Opportunity of a Lifetime”, please click here…