Technology and Social Paradigm Shift ─ Laser Pico Projection to Change the Way We View our World

There is paradigm shift coming and the pico projector market is estimated to reach $9.32 billion by 2020; growing at a CAGR of 39.82% from 2014 to 2020.

[Note: Think of a Paradigm Shift as a change from one way of thinking to another. It's a revolution, a transformation, a sort of metamorphosis. It just does not happen, but rather it is driven by agents of change.]

I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection "standalone" space... like 3M with LcoS, TI with DLP, and MicroVision with Laser Beam Scanning technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, MicroVision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” or “standalone” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

MicroVision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…

When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.

Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?

When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.

What’s MicroVision “Killer App”?

It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”.  What makes MicroVision’s PicoP display engine technology as "Killer App" in simple terms?

1.  Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.

2.  Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.

3.  Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.

4.  Large projected images [up to 250”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.

5.  High Definition 720P images at 32 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 50 lumen or more brightness in 2015.

6.  Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology has matured and economies of scale are achieved in 2015.  For example, synthetic green lasers [SGLs] were priced at around $120 each… whereas the diode green lasers [with higher light energy output and efficiency] are currently priced at less than $5 in quantities.

7.  Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next. 

8.  Social Change from the way we share information now to the way it will be shared in the future.

The PicoP display engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to MicroVision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PicoP display engine to the rest of MicroVision product line of applications that are currently under development.

Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisers compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!

Well, MicroVision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your MicroVision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.

But that will change in the next 2 Qtrs: when the earnings report will show $8 million in licensing fee and $14.5 million in proprietary components order [and future royalties] from SONY… and increasing sales of technology development and licensing from 10 or so Consumer Electronics giants from US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.

When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in MicroVision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 3 to 5 years.

Is MicroVision ready for prime time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

In three to five years from now in 2017, the stock could easily trade in the $100 to $400 range. 

No matter how you slice-it or dice-it, MicroVision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

MicroVision’s PicoP display engine could also lead the “standalone” rat pack [with its Celluon PicoAir projector for example] because of the following...

• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) will make the MicroVision's PicoP projector at par with competition... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

• “A wide angle view means that MicroVision PicoP projector can show a wider screen at closer distant!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With MicroVision PicoP projector you get…

“A wider image [60 inch from 5 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus”.

• Laser based PicoP projectors will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector [with DLP or LcoS] every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

• MicroVision PicoP projector has better image quality [at 80,000 to 1 contrast ratio] and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using.  The use of diffused light source, like LEDs or lamps, causes the "torch light" effect... meaning the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

• MicroVision’s PicoP projectors can go from 12inch to 250inch image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what MicroVision is offering. We will soon find out what [else] MicroVision has to offer when Celluon PicoAir [currently at 32 lumen] comes out with 50 lumen and higher brightness.

Celluon’s PicoAir [using MicroVision PicoP display engine] was launched this January and is currently shipping… and is getting raving reviews. Competition, like 3M and TI, have their LED based Pico projectors on the market for over four years… but they are not selling too well… and their prices keep coming down almost every month.

According to the new market research report "Pico Projector Market - Forecasts to 2020", the pico projector market is estimated to reach $9.32 billion by 2020; growing at a CAGR of 39.82% from 2014 to 2020.

However, the laser based PicoP projector market is expected to grow at must faster rate CAGR of 56.95% and take-off in 2014.

Here’s an excerpt from the independent study…

“The technology market entails three major types including Digital Light Processing (DLP), Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCOS), and Laser Beam Steering (LBS). Currently, the majority of pico projectors are being developed based on DLP technology, however it has been estimated that in future, pico projectors would be mostly based on laser technology. DLP accounted for a market share of 56.90% in 2014 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.53% between 2014 and 2020. Laser Beam Steering (LBS) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 56.95% between 2014 and 2020.”

Competition is good and will help with faster adoption of the Pico projector by the billion plus unit market. To be a huge [financial] success, MicroVision needs only a small percentage of the overall market that finally adopts the technology.

My money is “still” on MicroVision. However, I am keeping an eye on the competition… including TI, 3M and Syndiant.

For an in-depth report on “Opportunity of a Lifetime”, please click here…

Microvision: Goes Sour on Apple?

There may not be any Apple in Microvision future… because Apple has considered but never [yes that’s right] warmed-up to the idea of embedding a pico projector, Microvision’s or anyone else’s, in any of its product line.

That’s a very bold statement and demands due diligence and research to support this argument.

First, watch this Alex Tokman interview video dated September 27, 2010. Watch carefully; from three minutes seven seconds to three minutes thirty five seconds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MQtsuj1y-I&feature=youtube_gdata_player

AT sounds sour on Apple don’t you think? For someone who used to answer questions about Apple as: “Apple world loves us”… now talks about Apple as a forgone conclusion in the iPhone vs. Google Android battle of the giants. Google Android is a new entrant to the smartphone arena and anyone worth listening to in this technology space would tell you: “it’s too early to tell who would be the leader… if there is going to be one at all in the first place?”

AT sounds sour on Apple and there may be a good reason for it.

Vast majority of technologists with-in Apple camp are convinced that pico projection technology is not mature enough to risk the integrity of their established technology offering… like computing, MP3 player, or mobile me platform [iPad, iPhone]. Unless there is an Apple product genre that offers pico projection as a primary function… there is very little chance of a pico projector making its way into the existing Apple product line? Unfortunately, that is not the only issue.

Another issue with an embedded pico projector inside any of the Apple product line, according to my sources, are the concern for primary product reliability and common mode failure caused by or because of the embedded pico projector functionality.

The reasoning goes like this...

“Pico projection is relatively new technology; with very little, if any, proven performance and reliability track record. If the pico projector goes on the fritz, the primary functionality of the iPad, iPhone or iWhatever is lost and the entire unit must be repaired or replaced”

That does not sound too good for embedded pico projectors for the Apple product line… at least for now.

However, all is not lost.

Smart companies have figured out the way around Apple’s position on embedded pico projectors. They are coming out with hand held pico projectors as an accessory unit for the Apple products─ like Microvision SHOWwx for one example, or as a docking station for the Apple mobile me products [iPod, iPhone, iPad] with added bells and whistles.

Anant Goel

Disclaimer: These comments are author’s personal observations and opinions and are based on his own research conducted recently.

Microvision: Will Change the Visual Experience of Future Mobile Devices

Today, the mobile devices are ubiquitous and if you were to project out the current trends another ten years…

“You will be carrying with you, on a 24x7 basis, a very powerful, always connected, functions & sensor-rich device with enhanced visual experience… called the Smartphones. And the cool thing is, so will everyone else. So what are you going to do with it that you aren't doing now?

Before we consider the possibilities, let’s first address the ubiquity of the mobile devices and extrapolate the current trends towards the mobile phones of the future for everyone on this planet. In other words, the mobile phones of to-day will pave the path to ubiquity for Smartphones of tomorrow… and that tomorrow may be here as early as the next 10 years. Consider this…

• There are currently about 3.2 billion mobile subscribers in the world, and that number is expected to grow by at least a billion in the next few years.

• Today, mobile phones are more prevalent than cars (about 800 million registered vehicles in the world) and credit cards (only 1.4 billion of those).

• While it took 100 years for landline phones to spread to more than 80% of the countries in the world, their wireless descendants did it in only 16 years.

• Fewer teens are wearing watches now because they use their phones to tell time instead. So it's safe to say that the mobile phone may be the most productive and ubiquitous consumer product ever invented.

However, have you ever considered just exactly how powerful these ubiquitous devices are and if the current trends were to be extrapolated… what future mobile device will look like? Whatever the name [or logo] on the cover, under the hood these mobile phones of the future will be the Smartphones that will be very smart [pun intended] and very powerful. Smartphones like “Blackberry” considered a business tool are now successfully targeting consumers. On the other hand, “iPhone” considered a consumer product is now targeting business customers. Some day, they may converge and pretty much offer the same power, functionality, connectivity, long battery life and ease of use etc.

As more and more consumers switch to Smartphones globally, the Blackberry and iPhone are picking up market share at the expense of foreign competitors such as Nokia.

However, the good news is that the overall Smartphones market is growing faster than ever. In 2008, a total of 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold worldwide, according to IDC, of which some 160 million were Smartphones, or 13%. In 2013, IDC predicts that 20% of the 1.4 billion mobile phones sold will be Smartphones, or 280 million.

Currently, we know what Smartphones like Blackberry and iPhone offer. What we don’t know and, therefore, can only speculate what additional functionality and features the future Smartphones may offer. Here’s a list of what the future may hold in store for the consumers…

Smart alerts:  Your mobile phone will be smart about your situation and alert you when something needs your attention. This is already happening today… eBay can text you when you've been outbid, and alert services (such as Google News) can deliver news, sports, or stock updates to you. In the future, these applications will get smarter, patiently monitoring your personalized preferences (which will be stored in the network cloud) and delivering only the information you desire. One very useful scenario: your phone knows that you are heading downtown for dinner, and alerts you of transit conditions or the best places to park.

Augmented reality:  Your mobile phone uses its arsenal of sensors to understand your situation and provide you information that might be useful. A stylish looking app, for one example, may automatically track Zagat rated restaurants, giving users food and cost scores as they move in real time bringing new dining places into view as they appear on the map.

Or perhaps, do you really want to know how much is that red dress in the window? Your phone, with its GPS and compass, knows what you are looking at, so it can tell you before you even ask. Plus, it may even suggest what purse and accessories go with the red dress?

Crowd sourcing:  Your mobile phone is your omnipresent window to the world, a way to publish pictures, emails, texts, Twitters, streaming videos and blog entries. When everyone else is doing the same, you have a world where people from every corner of the planet are covering their experiences in real-time. That massive amount of content gets archived, sorted, and re-deployed to other people in new and interesting ways. Ask the web for the most interesting sites in your vicinity, and your phone shows you reviews and pictures that people have uploaded of nearby attractions. Like what you see? It will send you directions on how to get there.

Sensors everywhere:  Your mobile phone knows a lot about the world around you. If you take that intelligence and combine it in the cloud with that of every other phone, we have an incredible snapshot of what is going on in the world right now.

Tool for development:  Your mobile phone may be more than just a convenience; it may be your livelihood. Already, this is true for people in many parts of the world: in southern India, fishermen use text messaging to find the best markets for their daily catch, in South Africa, sugar farmers can receive text messages advising them on how much to irrigate their crops, and throughout sub-Saharan Africa entrepreneurs with mobile phones become phone operators, bringing communications to their villages. These innovations will only increase in the future, as mobile phones become the linchpin for greater economic development.

The future-proof device:  Your mobile phone will open up, as the Internet already has, so it will be easy for developers to create or improve applications and content. The ones that you care about get automatically installed on your phone. Let's say you have a piece of software on your phone to improve power management (and therefore battery life). Let's say a developer makes an improvement to the software. The update gets automatically installed on your phone, without you lifting a finger. Your phone actually gets better over time.

Safer software through trust and verification:  Your mobile phone will provide tools and information to empower you to decide what to download, what to see, and what to share. Trust is the most important currency in the always connected world, and your phone will help you stay in control of your information. You may choose to share nothing at all (default mode), or just share certain things with certain people─ your circle of trusted friends and family. You'll make these decisions based on information you get from the service and software providers and the collective ratings of the community as well. Your phone is like your trusted valet: it knows a lot about you, and won't disclose an iota of it without your permission.

Enhanced Visual Experience:  Not too long ago, a mobile phone offered only a one-to-one viewing experience with little room for personalization and lacking the cool factor. Soon Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will change the DNA of the phone, making it more visual, interactive and unique to the user. Taking this a step further, your cell phone will become a “one-to-many” tool, allowing us to share mobile content with groups of friends, family and colleagues. In the not-too-distant future, road warriors will be showing presentations to a room full of colleagues via a projector accessory [SHOWwx} for their mobile phones. We have only begun to unleash the mobile visual experience.

Microvision Will Change Your Visual Experience, Wirelessly:

With the increasing number and variety of visual applications on mobile phones, Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will deliver the mobile experience consumers have come to expect. Consumers will be able to use their mobile phones to capture and store high-quality content, including digital movies and console-quality video games, and then watch the content with others via a connection to mobile, palm-sized, full-featured SHOWwx PicoP projector, which are expected to be available in the summer of 2009.

Professional and amateur film makers can already use their mobile phones to show-off high-quality samples of their creations to producers using video clips taken on their handset. Soon, they [and you] will be able to share your video creation or the latest funny video from YouTube with a room full of people, in DVD quality (848 x 480) resolution, the same clarity you receive from your DVD player at home. Parents will be able to send DVD quality videos of their children learning how to ride a bike to family members, who may then show a room full of their friends.

In conjunction with third party technology for processing HD video and graphics content, Microvision’s PicoP projector will allow [in 2010] integration into a mobile phone, further enhancing display options in mobile devices. Microvision’s Pico projector is creating a new standard by extending beyond the limitations of the physical screen on mobile phones and allowing consumers to share content with friends and family.

From viewing video content on a 2-inch LCD screen on your mobile phone to being able to watch DVD-quality video in widescreen TV format projected to the closest wall, the wireless experience will never be the same.

Quality of image, rich & vivid colors and always-in-focus feature is important when projecting from your Mobile devices. For comparison, look at the quality and size of the Microvision’s PicoP projection and compare it to the [static] images from the Optoma DLP Pico projector and the 3M LcoS Pico projector…

First, the link to the Optoma DLP Pico projector video…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMeQBF4LNws

Next, the link to 3M LcoS Pico projector video…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NNMHYgpGO4

Now look at Microvision laser PicoP projector SHOWwx video…

http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?m=200908

Note: Make sure to click on the video play button

Now tell me, if I need to write a thousand words to explain the difference between the three?

Microvision Will Change Your Visual Experience, Wirelessly!

Anant Goel

[Credit: Andy Rubin, Engineering Director at Google]