3D TVs started to arrive in consumer electronic stores in early March to great fanfare, and consumers are intrigued...but are also curious. The big question, of course, is whether these new TVs can transport the 3D excitement from movie theaters to our homes.
Based on excitment generated by the first available HDTV models with 3D video capabilities, the answer is a resounding yes.
Research has shown that users prefer wide screen, high definition, 2D/3D motion pictures with fast refresh [without motion blur] and always in focus images for all forms of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
3D Content Meets 3D Laser Projector:
3D content is proliferating rapidly. Movies, games and increasingly live sports and concert videos are being filmed in 3D. One unique challenge facing this emerging category is the lack of in-home 3D displays. The 120Hz LCD panels and plasma screens typically require shutter glasses for viewing 3D content, but next generation display technologies employ passive 3D glasses… which are lighter weight, cost less and are more acceptable to the wearer.
Microvision's laser scanning PicoP Display technology platform enables 3D content in the home that is viewed through lightweight passive glasses… all without the purchase of a new, large, expensive flat panel monitor. Recently, in June of 2009, Ben Averch of Microvision made a presentation at the 2009 Projection Summit. His presentation addressed the burgeoning 3D content market and the unique value proposition for a mobile 3D laser projector…using Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine.
In March 2009, Microvision received a patent on laser PicoP based 3D projector. That means the laser PicoP Display Engine of today will have upward growth mobility to High Definition projection [first] and then to 3D projection using passive glasses. That’s an exciting growth road map for the little master of the pico projector domain.
Here’s the information on the patent…
Title: THREE-DIMENSIONAL IMAGE PROJECTION SYSTEM AND METHOD
Abstract:
An image projection system having an optical projector and a method for projecting an image. The image projection system enables viewing the images in three dimensions and securely viewing the images in a public forum. The image projection system may include a portable, handheld optical projector that is spaced apart from a display screen and that redirects an image signal to the display screen. The image signal is scattered by the display screen and transmitted to a viewer’s eyes through a set of eyewear worn by the viewer. The display screen preserves the polarization state of the image signal. The portable handheld optical projector may be a cellular phone, a personal digital assistant, a portable computer, or the like that includes one or more sets of light emission systems capable of projecting the image signal. The optical projector may be portable and handheld, or stationary or semi-stationary.
Here’s the link to the patent document…
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/20090079941.html
This is great news for the simple reason...
The next big thing that the display industry is going into is 3D. Look at the number of 3D movies coming out lately… they have dramatically increased. Here’re some quotes from the patent application…
3D Technology:
“In addition to displaying images in two-dimensions, projection display manufacturers have developed systems for displaying images in three-dimensions. One technique for creating three dimensional (“3D”) projection display systems is to create two separate monochromatic images…
Although these systems are inexpensive to implement, the color reproduction of the images is poor and the filters may not completely block the adjacent eye’s image, which causes ghosting. Further, the technique uses large immobile equipment to project the images.”
“Another technique for creating a 3D image is to project separate images having different polarization states…
This technique offers better color reproduction than the red-blue monochromatic technique, however the projection displays are large, stationary, expensive to implement, and, because about half the light is lost, inefficient.”
“Accordingly, it would be advantageous to have a three-dimensional display system and a method for displaying three-dimensional images that is; cost efficient to manufacture, makes efficient use of light, and may be either stationary or portable.”
“The portable handheld optical projector may be a cellular phone, a personal digital assistant, a portable computer, or the like that includes one or more sets of light emission systems capable of projecting the image signal. The optical projector may be portable and handheld, or stationary or semi-stationary.”
Microvision 3D Projector patent states…
“In accordance with another embodiment of the present invention, an image projection system comprises a light emission system and a scanning device, wherein the light emission system includes a plurality of light sources. For example, the light sources may be two sets of red-green-blue (“RGB”) lasers, where one set of lasers transmits light in a first polarization state and the other set of lasers transmits light in a second polarization state that is different from the first polarization state. Thus, this embodiment comprises two red lasers, two green lasers, and two blue lasers, where the red lasers emit light having different polarization states from each other, the green lasers emit light having different polarization states from each other, and the blue lasers emit light having different polarization states from each other. The light can be linearly polarized or circularly polarized. In the case of a linear polarization state, the light transmitted to one filter may be vertically polarized and the light transmitted to the other filter may be horizontally polarized. In the case of a circular polarization state, the light transmitted to one filter may be right circularly polarized and the light transmitted to the other filter may be left circularly polarized. It should be noted that the light may be coherent light or non-coherent light.
The light from one set of lasers is combined and redirected towards a display screen using a scanning device and the light from the other set of lasers is combined and redirected towards the display screen using the same scanning device as the first set of lasers or a different scanning device. The scanning device spatially modulates the light to vary the color and intensity of each pixel. The scanned beam displays are configured to slightly vary the content between the two two-dimensional images as they are projected into a viewer's eyes. The brain uses this difference in content to create an illusion of depth. More particularly, the light from one set of RGB lasers is in a first polarization state and the light from the other set of RGB lasers is in a second polarization state that is the opposite of the first polarization state. The light from all the lasers may be combined into a single light beam and spatially modulated in unison. Thus, all the light sources are scanned through the same angular extent. The three-dimensional image may be created by temporally delaying the video signal and modulating the intensity of each laser. The scattered light strikes eyewear worn by a viewer, wherein the eyewear includes a filter associated with the viewer's left eye and a filter associated with the viewer's right eye.
In accordance with another embodiment of the present invention, privacy in a public forum may be provided by the image projection system. The eyewear worn by the viewer is configured to decode polarized light. The light can be linearly polarized or circularly polarized. The portable handheld source of electromagnetic radiation projects an image in a first polarization state and an inverse image in a second polarization state that is complementary to the first polarization state. The viewer wearing the eyewear can filter one set of images seeing only the desired content transmitted by the portable handheld source of electromagnetic radiation, whereas others see a “white image” on the display screen. Thus, the viewer can view projected images that are of a personal nature or confidential while others are prevented from viewing or decoding the images. Alternatively, privacy in a public forum can be achieved by using eyewear that is synchronized to the polarization states of the light.”
The display screen is a polarization preserving screen. Thus, the light striking display screen and the light scattered by display screen have the same polarization state. In accordance with one embodiment, display screen comprises a microlens array coated with a layer of aluminum. In accordance with another embodiment, display screen comprises a surface having a silver finish. Suitable screens may be available from Da-Lite Screen Company, Warsaw, Ind., 46581.
Eyewear set comprises of a frame having bow, temples, and filters that transmit images to the left and right eyes. Filters are configured to decode polarized light. The polarized light can be linearly polarized light or circularly polarized light. Filters comprise a quarter-wavelength plate laminated to a polarizer. It should be noted that the type of plates laminated to polarizer are not limitations of the present invention. For example, plates can be waveplates, polarizer filters, combinations of polarizers, combinations of waveplates, polarizing optics, or the like. In addition, the polarization transmission characteristics of filters are not limitations of the present invention. Filters may be configured to decode vertically or horizontally polarized light or right or left circularly polarized light. Techniques for coupling plates to polarizers are known to those skilled in the art.
Here’s what I think…
The PicoP Display Engine will first go with High Definition images and then progress to 3D projection. That looks like the growth path for the next 2 to 3 years with huge revenue growth potential.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Microvision: One More Purchase Order in Next Two Weeks?
First, the good news…
Microvision Completes Design of New PicoP Laser Display Engine for Mobile Embedded Applications
Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday March 29, 2010, 7:29 am EDT
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has completed the design and begun shipping initial evaluation samples to several prospective customers of its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine.
Continues…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Completes-Design-bw-3543654902.html?x=0&.v=1
Then, the exciting news…
Microvision Receives $8.5 Million Purchase Order for New PicoP Laser Projection Display Engine
Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday April 5, 2010, 7:06 am EDT
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has received an $8.5 million purchase order for its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine from a consumer electronics customer. The OEM plans to embed the PicoP engine inside a high-end mobile media player for release in late 2010 and plans to announce its launch at that time.
Continues…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Receives-85-bw-2670010777.html?x=0&.v=1
Now for some projections [pun intended] into the future…
There are four areas that I would like to focus on…
1. SHOWwx was just the beginning of things to come
2. Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology
3. More Purchase Order to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production.
4. Case for brighter [like 20 lumens] PicoP Display Engines for the embedded version.
SHOWwx Just the Beginning of Things to Come:
On March 24th, Microvision started selling its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx to the US market… selling them directly; from its on-line web store for a handsome profit. When you sell directly; your margins are always better because of the savings in middleman’s commission. By the next earnings conference call; we would find out for sure what sales revenue and profit margins are from on-line sale of SHOWwx.
On April 5th, Microvision confirmed the receipt of a purchase order for $8.5 million dollars for its ultra miniature PDE… and that is the part that confirms my view that SHOWwx and the $8.5 million purchase order is the just the beginning of things to come.
Here’s why…
Potential markets for laser based PicoP Display Engine technology is not only huge… but it is also a high margin market opportunity. If you were to consider the high-end Media Player market alone… the possibilities are enormous…
Low Power Front Projection Media Players for the Third World Countries:
Think about 2.5 billion people in India and China... as they represent the potential buyers of a low power front projection portable TV/Media Player that offers a large screen [40'' to 100''] high definition always in focus vivid and bright color viewing experience. Extremely low ENERGY consumption [like 10 watts or less] and portability is the key market demand factor here. Energy will become more and more scarce and expensive by leaps and bounds…whereas the portability allows for sharing of resources among friends and family.
Low Power Front Projection Media Player for the Master Bedroom:
Think about a billion bedrooms globally that could use a ceiling projector... for adding another dimension to the various ways of media consumption for information and entertainment. We have desired the bedroom viewing of television for ever, so it seems, and some of us may have installed televisions in the bedroom. However, now it is possible to add, by the millions, a low power media player with built-in PicoP projector in our bedrooms… that offers short throw ratio, wide screen, high definition, bright and vivid color, and always in focus viewing experience. Media player/projector runs on low power batteries... so no risk of electrocuting yourself. No significant heat... so you won't burn yourself. No heavy duty TV to install on the bedroom wall.
Low Power Portable Projection Media Player for Every Bedroom in the House:
All you need is one portable Media Player with built-in PicoP projector… that gets moved around from room to room when and where it’s needed. It certainly is a cheaper alternative than buying a TV for each room of the house. This portable Media Player can also be the one you pack with your bags… when you are on the go.
Market Size for Portable Media Players with built-in PicoP Projectors is huge… like in billions world-wide. The most recent order for $8.5 million from the Consumer Electronic Company is just the beginning of what’s to come and not the end.
Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology:
Some have questioned the laser PicoP as “core” technology [like CPUs from Intel] vs. “commodity” technology [like cell phone touch screen and cameras].
My take on the subject is as follows...
Picop [the generic version] is an enabling technology and therefore a commodity... no question about that.
However, laser PicoP is a core technology and that's how it is being positioned by Microvision. Picop technology from TI or 3M will not create [or capture] as large a market as laser PicoP would... due to inherent image quality and functionality only possible due to lasers being used as the light source.
Microvision laser PicoP technology will capture its fair share of the captive markets but it would go-on-further and create markets that are only possible because of laser PicoP. And that's not the commodity markets by any means. Microvision recognizes that right from the beginning; and therefore is positioning the PicoP Display Engines accordingly… by using the “Image by PicoP” insignia on every thing related to its technology.
There will be others with laser picop technology down the road... and that's why Microvision is churning out these patents by the dozens… to protect its IP turf. Also, the "Image by PicoP" is part of this marketing strategy that positions Microvision PicoP technology as a "core" and not "commodity" right from day one. From what I have seen, and there is plenty of evidence for you to see as well, Microvision is charging a premium price for its PicoP technology. Just look at SHOWwx Limited Edition sold at $999 and the Commercial Edition currently for sale at $549.
I hope you can appreciate the difference... because it’s worth billions of dollars when it is executed with knowledge, passion, and gumption.
More Purchase Orders to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production:
If there was another Purchase Order next week, would that convince you that Osram and Corning are ramping-up production of their green lasers faster than expected?
Here’s what I’m thinking…
Many OEMs have sampled the first version PEKs from last year. Now the second generation PEKs, for embedded applications, are going out and dramatically improve upon what has been tested before! I believe that the embedded version of the PicoP Display Engine is brighter [over 20 lumens], smaller and consumes less energy.
In other words, time to market for these OEMs has collapsed to a point that few more may be interested in bringing PicoP embedded digital devices to the market for the coming Christmas season. I don’t think the Japanese and Koreans are going to let APPLE hog all the discretionary income of the America consumer for the iPad.
The case for brighter PicoP Display Engine for Embedded Application…
Corning has been slow to ramp-up due to improvements in their SHG green laser technology… that is the switch from “wave guided SHG laser” to “SIDM-based adaptive optics SHG laser” technology. I remember, from a year ago in a conversation with the Corning Product Manager, that G-2000 green laser would incorporate enhancements leading to brighter pictures… with a target goal of 20 lumens or better.
Here’re some links…
Corning G-1000 laser design [at 10 lumens with 10:1 contrast ratio] and the SIDM-based adaptive optics technology…
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=14329
Corning G-2000 laser pumps more lumens [like 23 lumens] at a reduced contrast ratio of 3:1 …
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=12733
Corning licked its waveguided SHG laser production issues last year by switching over to SIDM-based adaptive optics technology.
This year, Corning is the wild card with its contrast optimized green laser at 23 lumens.
Microvision future is bright and is getting brighter every day… just like its laser PicoP Display Engine.
Higher stock valuation will come in time… just like the HD resolution on its PicoP projection images.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Microvision Completes Design of New PicoP Laser Display Engine for Mobile Embedded Applications
Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday March 29, 2010, 7:29 am EDT
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has completed the design and begun shipping initial evaluation samples to several prospective customers of its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine.
Continues…
*****
Here’s the link…http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Completes-Design-bw-3543654902.html?x=0&.v=1
Then, the exciting news…
Microvision Receives $8.5 Million Purchase Order for New PicoP Laser Projection Display Engine
Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday April 5, 2010, 7:06 am EDT
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has received an $8.5 million purchase order for its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine from a consumer electronics customer. The OEM plans to embed the PicoP engine inside a high-end mobile media player for release in late 2010 and plans to announce its launch at that time.
Continues…
*****
Here’s the link…http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Receives-85-bw-2670010777.html?x=0&.v=1
Now for some projections [pun intended] into the future…
There are four areas that I would like to focus on…
1. SHOWwx was just the beginning of things to come
2. Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology
3. More Purchase Order to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production.
4. Case for brighter [like 20 lumens] PicoP Display Engines for the embedded version.
SHOWwx Just the Beginning of Things to Come:
On March 24th, Microvision started selling its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx to the US market… selling them directly; from its on-line web store for a handsome profit. When you sell directly; your margins are always better because of the savings in middleman’s commission. By the next earnings conference call; we would find out for sure what sales revenue and profit margins are from on-line sale of SHOWwx.
On April 5th, Microvision confirmed the receipt of a purchase order for $8.5 million dollars for its ultra miniature PDE… and that is the part that confirms my view that SHOWwx and the $8.5 million purchase order is the just the beginning of things to come.
Here’s why…
Potential markets for laser based PicoP Display Engine technology is not only huge… but it is also a high margin market opportunity. If you were to consider the high-end Media Player market alone… the possibilities are enormous…
Low Power Front Projection Media Players for the Third World Countries:
Think about 2.5 billion people in India and China... as they represent the potential buyers of a low power front projection portable TV/Media Player that offers a large screen [40'' to 100''] high definition always in focus vivid and bright color viewing experience. Extremely low ENERGY consumption [like 10 watts or less] and portability is the key market demand factor here. Energy will become more and more scarce and expensive by leaps and bounds…whereas the portability allows for sharing of resources among friends and family.
Low Power Front Projection Media Player for the Master Bedroom:
Think about a billion bedrooms globally that could use a ceiling projector... for adding another dimension to the various ways of media consumption for information and entertainment. We have desired the bedroom viewing of television for ever, so it seems, and some of us may have installed televisions in the bedroom. However, now it is possible to add, by the millions, a low power media player with built-in PicoP projector in our bedrooms… that offers short throw ratio, wide screen, high definition, bright and vivid color, and always in focus viewing experience. Media player/projector runs on low power batteries... so no risk of electrocuting yourself. No significant heat... so you won't burn yourself. No heavy duty TV to install on the bedroom wall.
Low Power Portable Projection Media Player for Every Bedroom in the House:
All you need is one portable Media Player with built-in PicoP projector… that gets moved around from room to room when and where it’s needed. It certainly is a cheaper alternative than buying a TV for each room of the house. This portable Media Player can also be the one you pack with your bags… when you are on the go.
Market Size for Portable Media Players with built-in PicoP Projectors is huge… like in billions world-wide. The most recent order for $8.5 million from the Consumer Electronic Company is just the beginning of what’s to come and not the end.
Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology:
Some have questioned the laser PicoP as “core” technology [like CPUs from Intel] vs. “commodity” technology [like cell phone touch screen and cameras].
My take on the subject is as follows...
Picop [the generic version] is an enabling technology and therefore a commodity... no question about that.
However, laser PicoP is a core technology and that's how it is being positioned by Microvision. Picop technology from TI or 3M will not create [or capture] as large a market as laser PicoP would... due to inherent image quality and functionality only possible due to lasers being used as the light source.
Microvision laser PicoP technology will capture its fair share of the captive markets but it would go-on-further and create markets that are only possible because of laser PicoP. And that's not the commodity markets by any means. Microvision recognizes that right from the beginning; and therefore is positioning the PicoP Display Engines accordingly… by using the “Image by PicoP” insignia on every thing related to its technology.
There will be others with laser picop technology down the road... and that's why Microvision is churning out these patents by the dozens… to protect its IP turf. Also, the "Image by PicoP" is part of this marketing strategy that positions Microvision PicoP technology as a "core" and not "commodity" right from day one. From what I have seen, and there is plenty of evidence for you to see as well, Microvision is charging a premium price for its PicoP technology. Just look at SHOWwx Limited Edition sold at $999 and the Commercial Edition currently for sale at $549.
I hope you can appreciate the difference... because it’s worth billions of dollars when it is executed with knowledge, passion, and gumption.
More Purchase Orders to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production:
If there was another Purchase Order next week, would that convince you that Osram and Corning are ramping-up production of their green lasers faster than expected?
Here’s what I’m thinking…
Many OEMs have sampled the first version PEKs from last year. Now the second generation PEKs, for embedded applications, are going out and dramatically improve upon what has been tested before! I believe that the embedded version of the PicoP Display Engine is brighter [over 20 lumens], smaller and consumes less energy.
In other words, time to market for these OEMs has collapsed to a point that few more may be interested in bringing PicoP embedded digital devices to the market for the coming Christmas season. I don’t think the Japanese and Koreans are going to let APPLE hog all the discretionary income of the America consumer for the iPad.
The case for brighter PicoP Display Engine for Embedded Application…
Corning has been slow to ramp-up due to improvements in their SHG green laser technology… that is the switch from “wave guided SHG laser” to “SIDM-based adaptive optics SHG laser” technology. I remember, from a year ago in a conversation with the Corning Product Manager, that G-2000 green laser would incorporate enhancements leading to brighter pictures… with a target goal of 20 lumens or better.
Here’re some links…
Corning G-1000 laser design [at 10 lumens with 10:1 contrast ratio] and the SIDM-based adaptive optics technology…
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=14329
Corning G-2000 laser pumps more lumens [like 23 lumens] at a reduced contrast ratio of 3:1 …
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=12733
Corning licked its waveguided SHG laser production issues last year by switching over to SIDM-based adaptive optics technology.
This year, Corning is the wild card with its contrast optimized green laser at 23 lumens.
Microvision future is bright and is getting brighter every day… just like its laser PicoP Display Engine.
Higher stock valuation will come in time… just like the HD resolution on its PicoP projection images.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Microvision: Color Eyewear Development Program
Now that Microvision has commercially launched its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US market; and that the initial shipments have begun in earnest, the inquiring minds want to know: “Now what?”
From what I hear, the focus has now increased in scope to embrace additional five areas with varying levels of priority and resource allocation…
• PicoP Display Engine modules for embedded applications,
• High Definition and brighter pico image initiative,
• Color Eyewear product development,
• 3D projector and light weight passive polarized 3D glasses development,
• New PEK modules and development support for multitude of third party applications.
I promise to pass on the information, on each of the above subjects, as it becomes available to me… or when it has gathered some critical mass to become worthy of further discussion.
So, here we go with our first subject that seems to be coming back to life after sitting on the back burner for almost six months…
First, here’s the link to Microvision Eyewear Development Program that I found on the Internet…
http://www.microvision.com/pdfs/program_brief.pdf
Note the key statement…
“Microvision and its business partners are developing see-through personal Color Eyewear for mobility applications that will extend the usability of mobile devices transforming the user experience.”
Microvision Color Eyewear Product alone is worth billions in [high margin] revenue for the company.
This is why…
Paradigm Shift: Another Microvision product that will change the way we view our world.
Ultimate Mobility: Allows you to engage with the world and your personal mobile content at the same time.
Extend the Usability of Mobile Devices: to further enhance and transform user experience.
Ultimate Social Networking Tool: Allows you to keep in constant contact with social networks… without having to pull your mobile phone out of your pocket.
Next Generation of Color Eyewear: that is not only fashionable but also elevates the user experience.
Ultimate in Private Viewing: of information for business [like teleprompter], networking and entertainment.
Ultimate in High Definition Image Quality: High Definition images in 1080i or beyond… limited only by the pixel size of laser light source.
Immersive Virtual Experiences: in 2D or 3D using Microvision’s Color Eyewear equipped with Augmented Reality
Market Size: Multi-billion dollar worldwide market… no doubt.
Competition: None to speak of at this time.
Timing: Coming soon… in 2011 or there about. Timing of commercial product release to the global market is the only wild card in the deck.
Program Funding: by Lockheed Martin sub-contract…
Here’s this statement from Press Release of July 13th, 2009…
“Microvision is very pleased to work with Lockheed Martin to advance the development of see-through eyewear displays in support of the DARPA ULTRA-Vis program…”
“… By designing Microvision’s ultra-miniature PicoP Display Engine and our thin Substrate Guided Relay (SGR) Optics into a wearable display, we have the potential to bring battery operable, low-profile, see-through, full-color eyewear displays to users.”
“DARPA has created the ULTRA-Vis program to bring tactical see-through heads-up information to ground soldiers in order to increase their safety and situational awareness in urban environments, the company said. When integrated to an information management system, Microvision said its eyewear display could enable users to receive visual commands, view geo-registered iconic representations, and receive other full-color image content overlaid on their view.
Here’s the link…
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2418318/
When you add the billions of dollars revenue potential from the PicoP Display Engine and PicoP Projector market to the “Color Eyewear” market… there is no better conclusion than: “Microvision has the potential of becoming a multi-billion dollar enterprise no doubt”.
Will Microvision stock [Nasdaq: MVIS] be a $500 stock in year 2014 remains to be seen… however all the signs are pointing that we are heading in the right direction and smart money is taking position as we speak?
We, as investors, can be part of this paradigm shift that has the potential of extraordinary financial gains during the “change” process that may spread over a few years… and is underway already.
Anant Goel
(This blog entry represents only the author’s opinion of Microvision as an investment vehicle)
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
From what I hear, the focus has now increased in scope to embrace additional five areas with varying levels of priority and resource allocation…
• PicoP Display Engine modules for embedded applications,
• High Definition and brighter pico image initiative,
• Color Eyewear product development,
• 3D projector and light weight passive polarized 3D glasses development,
• New PEK modules and development support for multitude of third party applications.
I promise to pass on the information, on each of the above subjects, as it becomes available to me… or when it has gathered some critical mass to become worthy of further discussion.
So, here we go with our first subject that seems to be coming back to life after sitting on the back burner for almost six months…
First, here’s the link to Microvision Eyewear Development Program that I found on the Internet…
http://www.microvision.com/pdfs/program_brief.pdf
Note the key statement…
“Microvision and its business partners are developing see-through personal Color Eyewear for mobility applications that will extend the usability of mobile devices transforming the user experience.”
Microvision Color Eyewear Product alone is worth billions in [high margin] revenue for the company.
This is why…
Paradigm Shift: Another Microvision product that will change the way we view our world.
Ultimate Mobility: Allows you to engage with the world and your personal mobile content at the same time.
Extend the Usability of Mobile Devices: to further enhance and transform user experience.
Ultimate Social Networking Tool: Allows you to keep in constant contact with social networks… without having to pull your mobile phone out of your pocket.
Next Generation of Color Eyewear: that is not only fashionable but also elevates the user experience.
Ultimate in Private Viewing: of information for business [like teleprompter], networking and entertainment.
Ultimate in High Definition Image Quality: High Definition images in 1080i or beyond… limited only by the pixel size of laser light source.
Immersive Virtual Experiences: in 2D or 3D using Microvision’s Color Eyewear equipped with Augmented Reality
Market Size: Multi-billion dollar worldwide market… no doubt.
Competition: None to speak of at this time.
Timing: Coming soon… in 2011 or there about. Timing of commercial product release to the global market is the only wild card in the deck.
Program Funding: by Lockheed Martin sub-contract…
Here’s this statement from Press Release of July 13th, 2009…
“Microvision is very pleased to work with Lockheed Martin to advance the development of see-through eyewear displays in support of the DARPA ULTRA-Vis program…”
“… By designing Microvision’s ultra-miniature PicoP Display Engine and our thin Substrate Guided Relay (SGR) Optics into a wearable display, we have the potential to bring battery operable, low-profile, see-through, full-color eyewear displays to users.”
“DARPA has created the ULTRA-Vis program to bring tactical see-through heads-up information to ground soldiers in order to increase their safety and situational awareness in urban environments, the company said. When integrated to an information management system, Microvision said its eyewear display could enable users to receive visual commands, view geo-registered iconic representations, and receive other full-color image content overlaid on their view.
Here’s the link…
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2418318/
When you add the billions of dollars revenue potential from the PicoP Display Engine and PicoP Projector market to the “Color Eyewear” market… there is no better conclusion than: “Microvision has the potential of becoming a multi-billion dollar enterprise no doubt”.
Will Microvision stock [Nasdaq: MVIS] be a $500 stock in year 2014 remains to be seen… however all the signs are pointing that we are heading in the right direction and smart money is taking position as we speak?
We, as investors, can be part of this paradigm shift that has the potential of extraordinary financial gains during the “change” process that may spread over a few years… and is underway already.
Anant Goel
(This blog entry represents only the author’s opinion of Microvision as an investment vehicle)
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Friday, April 2, 2010
Microvision: Initial Reviews of Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx
On March 24th, Microvision launched its first laser PicoP projector SHOWwx for sale from its on-line store…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Sales of this DVD quality and focus free laser projector have been quite brisk without any visible signs of advertising or promotional effort… indicating a broad based demand; from those that are aware of this pico projection as the emerging new technology that seems to have arrived in full bloom this spring.
I received my Limited Edition SHOWwx a few days ago and shared the pico projection experience with my friends, family and some total strangers.
Here’s my personal experience with Limited Edition SHOWwx…
The packaging is First Class, including a solid high quality 12x16" shiny black box that says "Image by PicoP" in silver letters. All the accessories are in their own quality boxes and they all rest on black grass like packing material. It also includes a Limited Edition SHOWwx Laser Pico Projector Certificate of Authenticity signed by Alexander Tokman… the CEO of Microvision. I was very impressed as to the very upscale quality of the packaging. It tells me that Microvision is a quality company with a quality product included in the box.
The metallic blue color SHOWwx was nicely packed compactly in its own compartment. A chrome plated insignia “SHOWwx Limited Edition” graced on the top half of the laser projector. I quickly read thru the few pages of instructions and safety manual to familiarize with the fine nuances of this feather weight machine that boasts of up to 100” projection display under certain ambient light conditions.
I inserted the battery in the SHOWwx as instructed in the manual and charged the battery for a few hours till the orange light turned green. When I first turned it on, it displayed my name in the lower right hand corner which was pretty cool. I walked around the house projecting various size images up and down the ceiling to walls to the hard wood floor. What an experience… feeling like a kid in the candy store! The highlight of this experience culminated in the fairly dark entertainment center in my finished basement.
Over 100” vivid color and focused image on the white wall just had one response from my 10 year old son… WOW!
One of the main usages that I had planned for SHOWwx was to watch streaming sports and You Tube videos. But, I still have not yet figured out how to enable the external monitor/projector on my HP Pavilion laptop. I tried the FN+F5 key combination the laptop instructions recommended; but that didn't work so I'll keep working on that.
The next thing I wanted to use SHOWwx was to hook it up to my portable DVD player and watch big screen movies in the entertainment center of the basement. Since my portable DVD player has 9" screen, it handles and travels well but I wanted a bigger screen to watch the movies. Surprisingly, even though SHOWwx comes with 4 different cables the one I needed was not included. So, I had to buy the proper male to male RCA video cable for $5 at the local Radio Shack
I hooked it up to my portable DVD player and found I had to press a switch that made my DVD screen go dark but produced a picture on the SHOWwx. The colors were bright and vivid and there were no green lines on the top or bottom of the screen when playing “Star Wars” on the DVD. The picture is certainly brighter when the screen size is 40” diagonal… but is still very sharp at 80” diagonal. Like most projectors the SHOWwx works best in a dimly lit or dark room… just like in a theater. The battery charge was good enough to last over 110 minute… before I had to go looking for the spare that came with the Limited Edition SHOWwx.
Paul Anderson did a very nice experiment with the SHOWwx battery run time that you should take a few minutes to look at…
http://mvisblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/my-showwx-experiment.html
Overall, I think it works great and the unit is so light you could easily carry it in a shirt pocket although mine came with a nice heavy duty carrying case with an "X" (for SHOWwx) on it that easily clips-on to your belt.
The only obvious improvement I would recommend; is to include an on-board SD memory card… for downloading and using digital content without having to attach SHOWwx to a host device.
With my personal experience set aside…
Initial reviews of SHOWwx and its projection image quality are coming-in from the first adopter users of the Limited Edition and the Commercial Edition product that was just recently shipped over the last few days.
If you are willing to accept the good with the bad, here’s a collection from a diverse group of people that have had a chance to look at the SHOWwx image projection in real life setting:
• “Tremendous product! This pico projection communicates the giddy excitement that awaits those who see and play with the PicoP for the first time. Such a bright, clear, colorful image from such a tiny device is hard to accept at first, as it contradicts one's prior experiences. Those guys were getting happy feet just like I did the first time I saw the PicoP in action. Microvision technology is going to OWN the high quality end of these emerging product categories.”
• “The projected image is from iPod Touch that has a resolution of 483 by 320 pixels. SHOWwx has a resolution of 848 by 480 pixels. If you liked the image at 483x320 pixels [iPod Touch] just imagine how awesome the image would look at 848x480 pixels.”
• “Even at the $549 launch price this product is amazing value and I for one will probably be buying several.”
• "...the amazing thing about this projector, it's not a shitty DLP or LCD based light engine... it's a scanning LASER!!!"
• "Because it's a beam of light from lasers it's always in focus, incredibly bright and the lasers have an immense lifetime..."
• "The Microvision laser projector seriously impresses me (and come on, you know how cynical I am!) but I'm not at all excited by those little DLP projectors that are just hitting the market... they are built on an old technology that isn't translating to the mobile world very well at all..."
• I have seen the videos of this product image. What I notice is so much better image quality in real life. It's worth mentioning a few facts:
1. Due to the slight difference between the refresh rate of video camera and the laser scan lines on the Microvision projector; the video image appears to flicker… which does not happen in "real life" and is a side-effect of recording projected image with a camera.
2. Most digital cameras don’t handle the low ambient light recording well and therefore don’t do the SHOWwx pico projector any favors... but the video images still look amazing!
• “Needless to say, I absolutely LOVE this product."
• "Yeah - Dad's mad about this, but I have to admit the demo was excellent. No focusing and a massive clear image created from a handset-sized device. Imagine sharing your images at a party on a wall...”
• “This unit outperforms the comparable Optoma unit and the actual projector is about 2/3rd of the size of an iPhone."
• “Those guys were stunned. I love to see the reaction of tech junkies like me.”
• “Just get me some big fat orders and I'll be happy.”… Obviously from someone who desperately wants to work for Microvision in the sales department.
• “You might mention that the flickering on the screen doesn't show when you're using the projector live. And yeah, I want one . . .”.
• “It is almost laughable now how the "green laser supply" issue has been blown out of all proportions by so many others. A serious public company with serious business doesn't require reading a bunch of tea leafs or put out a bunch of rumor fodder.”
• “Go back and look at all the posts for the last 8 years about how many "this is it" posts on a tea leaf reading have been pronounced and how many have come true?”
• “He could have been referring to a couple of large corporations with sales forces that have inquired about purchasing a number of units when available. However, I think they would want on-board memory so they can load-up a presentation without a second device hooked-up.”
• “Looks a lot better than the Pico Pocket Projector I reviewed a couple of months ago. Looking forward to buying SHOWwx with on-board memory in the near future!”
• “Brilliant! The fact that it's non-focus is the best part.”
• “… I think the SHOWWX is fantastic and everyone will want one when they find out about it.”
So there you have it, comments from those enamored with PicoP… those with inquisitive minds… and those who are skeptics.
Be careful with what you wish for!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Sales of this DVD quality and focus free laser projector have been quite brisk without any visible signs of advertising or promotional effort… indicating a broad based demand; from those that are aware of this pico projection as the emerging new technology that seems to have arrived in full bloom this spring.
I received my Limited Edition SHOWwx a few days ago and shared the pico projection experience with my friends, family and some total strangers.
Here’s my personal experience with Limited Edition SHOWwx…
The packaging is First Class, including a solid high quality 12x16" shiny black box that says "Image by PicoP" in silver letters. All the accessories are in their own quality boxes and they all rest on black grass like packing material. It also includes a Limited Edition SHOWwx Laser Pico Projector Certificate of Authenticity signed by Alexander Tokman… the CEO of Microvision. I was very impressed as to the very upscale quality of the packaging. It tells me that Microvision is a quality company with a quality product included in the box.
The metallic blue color SHOWwx was nicely packed compactly in its own compartment. A chrome plated insignia “SHOWwx Limited Edition” graced on the top half of the laser projector. I quickly read thru the few pages of instructions and safety manual to familiarize with the fine nuances of this feather weight machine that boasts of up to 100” projection display under certain ambient light conditions.
I inserted the battery in the SHOWwx as instructed in the manual and charged the battery for a few hours till the orange light turned green. When I first turned it on, it displayed my name in the lower right hand corner which was pretty cool. I walked around the house projecting various size images up and down the ceiling to walls to the hard wood floor. What an experience… feeling like a kid in the candy store! The highlight of this experience culminated in the fairly dark entertainment center in my finished basement.
Over 100” vivid color and focused image on the white wall just had one response from my 10 year old son… WOW!
One of the main usages that I had planned for SHOWwx was to watch streaming sports and You Tube videos. But, I still have not yet figured out how to enable the external monitor/projector on my HP Pavilion laptop. I tried the FN+F5 key combination the laptop instructions recommended; but that didn't work so I'll keep working on that.
The next thing I wanted to use SHOWwx was to hook it up to my portable DVD player and watch big screen movies in the entertainment center of the basement. Since my portable DVD player has 9" screen, it handles and travels well but I wanted a bigger screen to watch the movies. Surprisingly, even though SHOWwx comes with 4 different cables the one I needed was not included. So, I had to buy the proper male to male RCA video cable for $5 at the local Radio Shack
I hooked it up to my portable DVD player and found I had to press a switch that made my DVD screen go dark but produced a picture on the SHOWwx. The colors were bright and vivid and there were no green lines on the top or bottom of the screen when playing “Star Wars” on the DVD. The picture is certainly brighter when the screen size is 40” diagonal… but is still very sharp at 80” diagonal. Like most projectors the SHOWwx works best in a dimly lit or dark room… just like in a theater. The battery charge was good enough to last over 110 minute… before I had to go looking for the spare that came with the Limited Edition SHOWwx.
Paul Anderson did a very nice experiment with the SHOWwx battery run time that you should take a few minutes to look at…
http://mvisblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/my-showwx-experiment.html
Overall, I think it works great and the unit is so light you could easily carry it in a shirt pocket although mine came with a nice heavy duty carrying case with an "X" (for SHOWwx) on it that easily clips-on to your belt.
The only obvious improvement I would recommend; is to include an on-board SD memory card… for downloading and using digital content without having to attach SHOWwx to a host device.
With my personal experience set aside…
Initial reviews of SHOWwx and its projection image quality are coming-in from the first adopter users of the Limited Edition and the Commercial Edition product that was just recently shipped over the last few days.
If you are willing to accept the good with the bad, here’s a collection from a diverse group of people that have had a chance to look at the SHOWwx image projection in real life setting:
• “Tremendous product! This pico projection communicates the giddy excitement that awaits those who see and play with the PicoP for the first time. Such a bright, clear, colorful image from such a tiny device is hard to accept at first, as it contradicts one's prior experiences. Those guys were getting happy feet just like I did the first time I saw the PicoP in action. Microvision technology is going to OWN the high quality end of these emerging product categories.”
• “The projected image is from iPod Touch that has a resolution of 483 by 320 pixels. SHOWwx has a resolution of 848 by 480 pixels. If you liked the image at 483x320 pixels [iPod Touch] just imagine how awesome the image would look at 848x480 pixels.”
• “Even at the $549 launch price this product is amazing value and I for one will probably be buying several.”
• "...the amazing thing about this projector, it's not a shitty DLP or LCD based light engine... it's a scanning LASER!!!"
• "Because it's a beam of light from lasers it's always in focus, incredibly bright and the lasers have an immense lifetime..."
• "The Microvision laser projector seriously impresses me (and come on, you know how cynical I am!) but I'm not at all excited by those little DLP projectors that are just hitting the market... they are built on an old technology that isn't translating to the mobile world very well at all..."
• I have seen the videos of this product image. What I notice is so much better image quality in real life. It's worth mentioning a few facts:
1. Due to the slight difference between the refresh rate of video camera and the laser scan lines on the Microvision projector; the video image appears to flicker… which does not happen in "real life" and is a side-effect of recording projected image with a camera.
2. Most digital cameras don’t handle the low ambient light recording well and therefore don’t do the SHOWwx pico projector any favors... but the video images still look amazing!
• “Needless to say, I absolutely LOVE this product."
• "Yeah - Dad's mad about this, but I have to admit the demo was excellent. No focusing and a massive clear image created from a handset-sized device. Imagine sharing your images at a party on a wall...”
• “This unit outperforms the comparable Optoma unit and the actual projector is about 2/3rd of the size of an iPhone."
• “Those guys were stunned. I love to see the reaction of tech junkies like me.”
• “Just get me some big fat orders and I'll be happy.”… Obviously from someone who desperately wants to work for Microvision in the sales department.
• “You might mention that the flickering on the screen doesn't show when you're using the projector live. And yeah, I want one . . .”.
• “It is almost laughable now how the "green laser supply" issue has been blown out of all proportions by so many others. A serious public company with serious business doesn't require reading a bunch of tea leafs or put out a bunch of rumor fodder.”
• “Go back and look at all the posts for the last 8 years about how many "this is it" posts on a tea leaf reading have been pronounced and how many have come true?”
• “He could have been referring to a couple of large corporations with sales forces that have inquired about purchasing a number of units when available. However, I think they would want on-board memory so they can load-up a presentation without a second device hooked-up.”
• “Looks a lot better than the Pico Pocket Projector I reviewed a couple of months ago. Looking forward to buying SHOWwx with on-board memory in the near future!”
• “Brilliant! The fact that it's non-focus is the best part.”
• “… I think the SHOWWX is fantastic and everyone will want one when they find out about it.”
So there you have it, comments from those enamored with PicoP… those with inquisitive minds… and those who are skeptics.
Be careful with what you wish for!
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential
I have always believed investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift; with an eye on the long term growth prospects of the company.
In the last 30 odd years that I have been investing, I have had my share of good fortune and misfortune. However, what’s important is the fact that I managed to secure my financial future and live today to talk about my strategy of investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift. Some of these companies─ like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, and Cisco─ have grown to be huge enterprises and have made their early investors over 10,000% or more since their inception.
A while back I wrote a post about my 14,000% profit experience with Intel during its growth phase from early 80’s to the end of Dot.com era in the year 2000. Here’s the link to that post…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/intel-i-made-over-14000-profit-since.html
I’m one of those old timers that invested in Intel during its early days as a company… in the early 80’s. I recall buying some shares for a total cost of $1,000 dollars. I had to liquidate all my position in Intel during the Dot Com bust of 2000… around May of that year. However, it was not all that bad, because I managed to sell pretty close to the all time high and I remember bragging about my good fortune and fortitude to have stayed the course to make over 14,000% profit… for a net gain of over $140,000 dollars including dividends and the stock splits.
The past performers in my portfolio have served well. However, these companies like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, Cisco, and Microsoft are past their hyper growth phase and are now too big and are just slow earnings growth vehicles. No disrespect to these fine companies… it’s just that they don’t fit the “hyper growth” company model any more.
One of my stocks holding now, besides an options income portfolio, is Microvision. I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.
Here’s why…
On Wall Street, you often hear terms like “top dog” or “first mover” in the context of a growth stock presentation to institutional clients. It’s quite interesting really…
A "top dog" is a company that dominates its industry... and a "first mover" is a company with a technology or product so revolutionary that it disrupts an existing industry and creates an entirely new one.
On the rare occasion that you find a company that is both─ both a top dog and a first mover ─ the chances are pretty good that you've found your next big winner...
Just think of eBay in the online auction market... Amazon in the online retail market... Netflix in the DVD-rental market… and Cisco in the router market… etc.
These companies redefined the way business was done, launched entirely new industries, and continue to dominate those industries to this day. And you don't need me to tell you how handsomely they've rewarded shareholders along the way.
In order to find companies that will deliver truly life-changing investment returns, you have to find growth companies early in their life cycle and truly believe that they are indeed the ones to ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift… with potential of sustained long term growth.
Before we talk about Microvision as the growth company of the future with a 50,000% profit potential, let’s first consider…
Is now really a good time to be buying growth stocks?
The fact is; it takes guts to make money in this market.
But here's some good news…
For one thing, our current economic conditions bear a striking similarity to the economic downturn of the early 1990s. And Morningstar reports that during that recession, “growth” stocks more than doubled the return of "value" stocks.
For another thing, "growth” stocks can excel even if the broad market continues to stumble. In fact, the analysts expect better profit prospects for growth stocks than for value stocks.
Money for nothing...
We have to be realistic in our expectations when searching or investing in growth companies. The purpose of looking at the great companies listed above is not to show that growth investing is an all-win situation. Far from it!
The purpose of the illustration is to demonstrate how well great companies perform over a long period. If you can identify just one great company early, and then hold on for the long term, you can do pretty well for yourself.
Growth investing is highly volatile, and it will fray the nerves of those individuals with a low risk tolerance. Having said that, all investors should devote a portion of their portfolios to growth stocks. For those traveling in the fast lane, an allocation of 30% of their portfolios might make sense. More conservative types should allocate at least 10% in order to provide a little juice for their investments. I'm somewhere in between, so I devote about 20% of my portfolio to growth.
Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential
I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.
In order to become a very successful, profitable and huge company [in terms of market capitalization] you need the following pre-requisites:
Management: with expertise, vision, support network, past record, communicative and persuasive skills and a will to succeed.
In my opinion, we have the best possible management with all the pre-requisite attributes necessary for managing Microvision at this stage of the company’s growth. Here’s a link for your review…
http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/team.html
Financially Sound: with money to support on-going operations, R&D expenditures, product development and commercialization.
According to the latest annual report for period ending December 2009, Microvision had $45.7 million in cash and short term cash instruments. Looking at the financials, the company is burning about $11 million per Qtr. At this rate, the company has about 4 Qtr worth of cash… assuming no additional revenue from product sales or contract payments.
Since we already have a SHOWwx product lunched in the US, Europe and the Asia Pacific region… I would venture to say that most R&D expenses have already been incurred [almost $300 million to date] and net profit from sales could reduce the cash burn by 3-4 million dollars per Qtr. That would stretch the available cash reserves to 7 Qtr or so. It’s ironic, but the investors of the past have funded this massive R&D undertaking to-date. However, the current investors will reap the benefits and are assured the company has cash to fund the on-going operations, product development and embedded PDEs commercialization.
Here’re some links…
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1400178&highlight=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=MVIS
Disruptive Technology: that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.
Microvision’s core technology [PicoP Display Engine] is weaved into five product offerings and each of the product line has the potential of generating billions in revenue:
Vehicle Displays: for automobiles.
http://www.microvision.com/vehicle_displays/index.html
Wearable Displays: a see-through, high-resolution display platform that enables lightweight and fashionable eyewear displays for mobile devices. Microvision’s Color Eyewear platform allows mobile users to access their personal content and services while keeping their vision of the outside world free and clear, letting mobile users stay on the move.
http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/mobile.html
Pico Projector Displays: brings big screens to small devices. The Pico Projector or “PicoP Display Engine” can be embedded in mobile phones, laptop or similarly-sized mobile devices to enable upto 100” full color projection display [with DVD resolution] for applications such as streaming video, digital TV, high resolution photographs, and surfing the net.
Standalone Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/standalone.html
Embedded Unit:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/embedded.html
Applications Gallery:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html
Military Displays: are used across various branches of the U.S. Military including the U.S. Army, and U.S. Army Reserve.
http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/military.html
Laser Bar Code Scanner: features a patent-pending, low-cost, shock-resistant, mechanical/magnetic laser scan engine.
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/index.html
Competitive Advantage: Microvision has over 115 U.S. Patents issued and 79 Patents pending to protect its intellectual property… giving it a huge competitive edge.
http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/index.html
Technologically Feasible: Microvision has five different products in its portfolio. Each product has been demonstrated to be technologically feasible… with some being offered commercially.
PicoP Display Engine technology is based on the proven and mature silicon MEMS laser scanning mirror technology… as demonstrated by their commercially marketed “ROV” bar code scanner system.
http://www.microvision.com/technology/index.html
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/rov.html
The company recently launched the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010.
http://www.microvision.com/showwx/
Microvision has teamed-up with Asia Optical, a global leader in optical component solutions and contract manufacturing, speaks highly of the technological feasibility of the PicoP product. This collaboration focuses on leveraging Asia Optical experience in high-volume design and manufacturing to create a compact, manufacture able and affordable PicoP Display Engine product for Microvision customers. Ultimately, it is expected that PicoP Display Engine will be incorporated into a variety of applications and products in the automotive and mobile consumer electronic products.
The development agreement with Vodafone and Motorola is big for the following reasons…
The deal with the top tier cell-phone companies [Vodafone and Motorola] validates the Microvision technology and its business model.
The deal with Vodafone and Motorola are not exclusive [at this stage] and possibly is the beginning of a relationship that can easily grow into these companies taking equity interest in MVIS… or a possible buyout in the future. As the company [MVIS] has indicated, they are talking to several other large mobile phone and consumer electronics firms.
The top tier cell-phone companies [like Vodafone and Motorola] see value in announcing the relationship with Microvision at this stage of the product development… meaning that the product is within the spec for an embedded device for the cell-phones… and on schedule for early introduction in 2011.
Microvision launched the standalone PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010 and is on schedule to deliver the embedded unit for commercial production in early 2011.
Market Size: The market for PicoP Display Engine is huge. The potential markets are automobiles, mobile phones, smartphones, laptops, PDAs, iPods, iPhones, Pads, digital cameras, camcorders, personal mobile TVs, and the fashion eyewear.
Here are some world-wide statistics...
New autos: sales for 2007 … 49 million units
http://www.metrics2.com/blog/2006/12/28/world_auto_sales_flat_in_2007_china_becomes_no3_re.html
New Mobile Phone Sales: for 2007… 1.15 billion units
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/item/?ci=29702
New Laptop Sales: for 2007 … 207 million units
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,132861-pg,1/article.html
New “PDA’s, iPods, iPhones, Digital Cameras and Camcorders”… over 300 million units
New Eyewear Sale: for 2008… 1 billion units
Personal Mobile TV/Projectors… new market opens up with potential 1 billion units
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html
Technology and Business Partnerships: Microvision has partnered with the biggest [financially], the most respected [for over 100 years] and the best in the business to design and manufacture its PicoP Display Engine for the automotive and consumer electronic markets.
Now what we need is a few more commercial business partners and OEM agreements for the PicoP Display Engine and Wearable Display product line. I am sure it will happen soon and when it does happen the MVIS stock will run up the charts as we have never seen before.
Microvision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…
When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.
Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?
When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.
So what’s Microvision’s “killer app”?
It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.
What makes Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine technology as "Killer app" in simple terms?
1. Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.
2. Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.
3. Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.
4. Large projected images [up to 100”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.
5. High resolution image [848x480] at 10 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 20 lumens or more brightness.
6. Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology matures and economies of scale are achieved.
7. Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next.
The PicoP Display Engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to Microvision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PDE to the rest of Microvision product line of applications that are currently under development.
Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisors compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!
Well, Microvision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your Microvision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.
But that will change in the next Qtr when the earnings report will show increasing sales of SHOWwx projector from the US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.
When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in Microvision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 5 years.
Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…
Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range.
Here’s an educated projection…
• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]
• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]
• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units
• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units
• OEM price: $90 per PicoP Display Engine
• Revenue: $4 billion
• Net Profit Margin: 40%
• Net Profit: $1.6 billion
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]
• Interest Expense: $0 million
• Interest Income: $20 million
• Tax: $220million
• Depreciation: non cash and very small
• Amortization: non cash and very small
• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion
• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]
• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company
• Price Per Share: $390 per share
In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
In the last 30 odd years that I have been investing, I have had my share of good fortune and misfortune. However, what’s important is the fact that I managed to secure my financial future and live today to talk about my strategy of investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift. Some of these companies─ like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, and Cisco─ have grown to be huge enterprises and have made their early investors over 10,000% or more since their inception.
A while back I wrote a post about my 14,000% profit experience with Intel during its growth phase from early 80’s to the end of Dot.com era in the year 2000. Here’s the link to that post…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/intel-i-made-over-14000-profit-since.html
I’m one of those old timers that invested in Intel during its early days as a company… in the early 80’s. I recall buying some shares for a total cost of $1,000 dollars. I had to liquidate all my position in Intel during the Dot Com bust of 2000… around May of that year. However, it was not all that bad, because I managed to sell pretty close to the all time high and I remember bragging about my good fortune and fortitude to have stayed the course to make over 14,000% profit… for a net gain of over $140,000 dollars including dividends and the stock splits.
The past performers in my portfolio have served well. However, these companies like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, Cisco, and Microsoft are past their hyper growth phase and are now too big and are just slow earnings growth vehicles. No disrespect to these fine companies… it’s just that they don’t fit the “hyper growth” company model any more.
One of my stocks holding now, besides an options income portfolio, is Microvision. I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.
Here’s why…
On Wall Street, you often hear terms like “top dog” or “first mover” in the context of a growth stock presentation to institutional clients. It’s quite interesting really…
A "top dog" is a company that dominates its industry... and a "first mover" is a company with a technology or product so revolutionary that it disrupts an existing industry and creates an entirely new one.
On the rare occasion that you find a company that is both─ both a top dog and a first mover ─ the chances are pretty good that you've found your next big winner...
Just think of eBay in the online auction market... Amazon in the online retail market... Netflix in the DVD-rental market… and Cisco in the router market… etc.
These companies redefined the way business was done, launched entirely new industries, and continue to dominate those industries to this day. And you don't need me to tell you how handsomely they've rewarded shareholders along the way.
In order to find companies that will deliver truly life-changing investment returns, you have to find growth companies early in their life cycle and truly believe that they are indeed the ones to ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift… with potential of sustained long term growth.
Before we talk about Microvision as the growth company of the future with a 50,000% profit potential, let’s first consider…
Is now really a good time to be buying growth stocks?
The fact is; it takes guts to make money in this market.
But here's some good news…
For one thing, our current economic conditions bear a striking similarity to the economic downturn of the early 1990s. And Morningstar reports that during that recession, “growth” stocks more than doubled the return of "value" stocks.
For another thing, "growth” stocks can excel even if the broad market continues to stumble. In fact, the analysts expect better profit prospects for growth stocks than for value stocks.
Money for nothing...
We have to be realistic in our expectations when searching or investing in growth companies. The purpose of looking at the great companies listed above is not to show that growth investing is an all-win situation. Far from it!
The purpose of the illustration is to demonstrate how well great companies perform over a long period. If you can identify just one great company early, and then hold on for the long term, you can do pretty well for yourself.
Growth investing is highly volatile, and it will fray the nerves of those individuals with a low risk tolerance. Having said that, all investors should devote a portion of their portfolios to growth stocks. For those traveling in the fast lane, an allocation of 30% of their portfolios might make sense. More conservative types should allocate at least 10% in order to provide a little juice for their investments. I'm somewhere in between, so I devote about 20% of my portfolio to growth.
Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential
I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.
In order to become a very successful, profitable and huge company [in terms of market capitalization] you need the following pre-requisites:
Management: with expertise, vision, support network, past record, communicative and persuasive skills and a will to succeed.
In my opinion, we have the best possible management with all the pre-requisite attributes necessary for managing Microvision at this stage of the company’s growth. Here’s a link for your review…
http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/team.html
Financially Sound: with money to support on-going operations, R&D expenditures, product development and commercialization.
According to the latest annual report for period ending December 2009, Microvision had $45.7 million in cash and short term cash instruments. Looking at the financials, the company is burning about $11 million per Qtr. At this rate, the company has about 4 Qtr worth of cash… assuming no additional revenue from product sales or contract payments.
Since we already have a SHOWwx product lunched in the US, Europe and the Asia Pacific region… I would venture to say that most R&D expenses have already been incurred [almost $300 million to date] and net profit from sales could reduce the cash burn by 3-4 million dollars per Qtr. That would stretch the available cash reserves to 7 Qtr or so. It’s ironic, but the investors of the past have funded this massive R&D undertaking to-date. However, the current investors will reap the benefits and are assured the company has cash to fund the on-going operations, product development and embedded PDEs commercialization.
Here’re some links…
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1400178&highlight=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=MVIS
Disruptive Technology: that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.
Microvision’s core technology [PicoP Display Engine] is weaved into five product offerings and each of the product line has the potential of generating billions in revenue:
Vehicle Displays: for automobiles.
http://www.microvision.com/vehicle_displays/index.html
Wearable Displays: a see-through, high-resolution display platform that enables lightweight and fashionable eyewear displays for mobile devices. Microvision’s Color Eyewear platform allows mobile users to access their personal content and services while keeping their vision of the outside world free and clear, letting mobile users stay on the move.
http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/mobile.html
Pico Projector Displays: brings big screens to small devices. The Pico Projector or “PicoP Display Engine” can be embedded in mobile phones, laptop or similarly-sized mobile devices to enable upto 100” full color projection display [with DVD resolution] for applications such as streaming video, digital TV, high resolution photographs, and surfing the net.
Standalone Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/standalone.html
Embedded Unit:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/embedded.html
Applications Gallery:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html
Military Displays: are used across various branches of the U.S. Military including the U.S. Army, and U.S. Army Reserve.
http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/military.html
Laser Bar Code Scanner: features a patent-pending, low-cost, shock-resistant, mechanical/magnetic laser scan engine.
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/index.html
Competitive Advantage: Microvision has over 115 U.S. Patents issued and 79 Patents pending to protect its intellectual property… giving it a huge competitive edge.
http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/index.html
Technologically Feasible: Microvision has five different products in its portfolio. Each product has been demonstrated to be technologically feasible… with some being offered commercially.
PicoP Display Engine technology is based on the proven and mature silicon MEMS laser scanning mirror technology… as demonstrated by their commercially marketed “ROV” bar code scanner system.
http://www.microvision.com/technology/index.html
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/rov.html
The company recently launched the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010.
http://www.microvision.com/showwx/
Microvision has teamed-up with Asia Optical, a global leader in optical component solutions and contract manufacturing, speaks highly of the technological feasibility of the PicoP product. This collaboration focuses on leveraging Asia Optical experience in high-volume design and manufacturing to create a compact, manufacture able and affordable PicoP Display Engine product for Microvision customers. Ultimately, it is expected that PicoP Display Engine will be incorporated into a variety of applications and products in the automotive and mobile consumer electronic products.
The development agreement with Vodafone and Motorola is big for the following reasons…
The deal with the top tier cell-phone companies [Vodafone and Motorola] validates the Microvision technology and its business model.
The deal with Vodafone and Motorola are not exclusive [at this stage] and possibly is the beginning of a relationship that can easily grow into these companies taking equity interest in MVIS… or a possible buyout in the future. As the company [MVIS] has indicated, they are talking to several other large mobile phone and consumer electronics firms.
The top tier cell-phone companies [like Vodafone and Motorola] see value in announcing the relationship with Microvision at this stage of the product development… meaning that the product is within the spec for an embedded device for the cell-phones… and on schedule for early introduction in 2011.
Microvision launched the standalone PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010 and is on schedule to deliver the embedded unit for commercial production in early 2011.
Market Size: The market for PicoP Display Engine is huge. The potential markets are automobiles, mobile phones, smartphones, laptops, PDAs, iPods, iPhones, Pads, digital cameras, camcorders, personal mobile TVs, and the fashion eyewear.
Here are some world-wide statistics...
New autos: sales for 2007 … 49 million units
http://www.metrics2.com/blog/2006/12/28/world_auto_sales_flat_in_2007_china_becomes_no3_re.html
New Mobile Phone Sales: for 2007… 1.15 billion units
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/item/?ci=29702
New Laptop Sales: for 2007 … 207 million units
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,132861-pg,1/article.html
New “PDA’s, iPods, iPhones, Digital Cameras and Camcorders”… over 300 million units
New Eyewear Sale: for 2008… 1 billion units
Personal Mobile TV/Projectors… new market opens up with potential 1 billion units
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html
Technology and Business Partnerships: Microvision has partnered with the biggest [financially], the most respected [for over 100 years] and the best in the business to design and manufacture its PicoP Display Engine for the automotive and consumer electronic markets.
Now what we need is a few more commercial business partners and OEM agreements for the PicoP Display Engine and Wearable Display product line. I am sure it will happen soon and when it does happen the MVIS stock will run up the charts as we have never seen before.
Microvision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…
When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.
Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?
When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.
So what’s Microvision’s “killer app”?
It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.
What makes Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine technology as "Killer app" in simple terms?
1. Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.
2. Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.
3. Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.
4. Large projected images [up to 100”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.
5. High resolution image [848x480] at 10 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 20 lumens or more brightness.
6. Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology matures and economies of scale are achieved.
7. Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next.
The PicoP Display Engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to Microvision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PDE to the rest of Microvision product line of applications that are currently under development.
Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisors compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!
Well, Microvision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your Microvision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.
But that will change in the next Qtr when the earnings report will show increasing sales of SHOWwx projector from the US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.
When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in Microvision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 5 years.
Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…
Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range.
Here’s an educated projection…
• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]
• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]
• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units
• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units
• OEM price: $90 per PicoP Display Engine
• Revenue: $4 billion
• Net Profit Margin: 40%
• Net Profit: $1.6 billion
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]
• Interest Expense: $0 million
• Interest Income: $20 million
• Tax: $220million
• Depreciation: non cash and very small
• Amortization: non cash and very small
• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion
• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]
• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company
• Price Per Share: $390 per share
In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Microvision: Breakeven Expected at the End of 1st Qtr 2011
For the first time in a long time I’m very confident that Microvision could have the breakeven operation by the end of 1st Qtr of 2011. And that’s much earlier than that projected by Oppenheimer in their recent report update of February 2010.
I have followed this company for nearly 12 years... but did not start investing in it until 2007, because they did not have a plan for building revenue until they brought on Alex Tokman. Microvision had all the symptoms of being an interesting science project with very little else to do with monetizing the technology… but all that changed after the 2006 re-organization when Tokman was appointed as the CEO. Many of you would agree that he is not there to build a science experiment… he is there to build a solid business based on solid technology, wrapped up as tightly in IP as a 200+ patent portfolio would allow.
The reason I mention Oppenheimer report as the point of reference… because, it is perhaps the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis of Microvision’s business and financial model by an institutional analyst. Even though I don’t agree with their projections of Microvision revenues and profit margins, I don’t see any reason to pick a fight over numbers that none of us can be hundred percent sure… one way or the other.
One more thing…
Recently, someone suggested “brevity as a virtue”. So, from now on, unless I’m writing the next chapter to my book, I plan on presenting my findings, research, analysis and conclusions in this very virtuous manner... that is, as briefly as possible.
So, here we go...
There is confluence of evidence that Microvision has launched its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US market on March 8th, 2010. It is also evident that SHOWwx is being sold in the US; directly from Microvision website...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/index.html
Now, the next question is about profit margins, revenues and the timeline for operational “breakeven”... where the operating profits sustain the operating cost on a monthly basis.
Looking at all the available information─ the annual report, the latest earnings report and the Q&A from the most recent earnings conference call ─ my analysis shows the breakeven Qtr as Q1 of 2011.
Here’s why…
First Qtr of 2011
Total Revenue: $30.95 million
Total Operating Expenses: $11.975 million
Net Income from Continuing Operations: $500,000
Income Tax Expenses: $0
Minority Interest/Other Expenses: $0
Total Non Recurring Events: $0
Net Income Applicable to Common: $500,000
Shares Outstanding: 90.136 million… includes 5 million share worth additional funding in August 2010 and the rest for stock options.
Earnings Per Share: $0.006
I am not going to attempt to persuade you; towards my way of thinking. However, I just feel that this is a very different point in time for Microvision, where a real product has been launched… and that will change the way information and entertainment is displayed in the mobile world. There are other companies that are getting these pico products out there... but, I see their product introduction to the market as the “teaser horses". And as “Sam” from the Yahoo Message Board says…
“... if you know anything about horse breeding; you do not want to come back as a teaser horse. Sure you get into the breeding shed, but even if the mare accepts the jump; poor Picho still loses out as he's fitted with a leather apron to ensure that his efforts, in advance of the waiting stud, remain chaste.”
Is Microvision the "stud" of the stable?
Well, we just have to wait and see when we get our hands on that SHOWwx on order!
When all is said and done, in the end, I see Microvision’s laser PDEs to dominate pico projection technology… and I have seen nothing from any of the other companies that would dissuade me from this view.
Do the delays frustrate the heck out of me?
Yes!
Do I wish I had my own SHOWwx months ago to use in presentations...and gift them to my friends and family?
Yes!
As far as missed deadlines go, the biggest issue was Corning misguided judgment that they would have green lasers in quantity 2 years ago… a major failure in projecting the production timeline. I, for one did not drain my brain worrying about the exact definition of the end of summer launch in 2009. I have seen new product releases before and I am well aware that if there is a situation where Murphy's Law might apply… then the September 2009 launch was one of them.
I’m very encouraged that Corning has finally overcome the G-1000 green laser production issues… and the second generation G-2000 is coming along nicely for production in Q4 of 2010. I am also very encouraged that OSRAM is making good progress and has started shipping small quantities of green laser to Microvision. It will not surprise me at all, if Microvision were to announce the Osram shipping good news any day soon.
If Osram (and Corning) can overcome the last mile quality production hurdles, we will see validation in a cell phone… with product available in the market by early 2011. Frankly, I do not care who is or was first to market. I think we will see some announcements before the end of April/May this year to help support the stock price and perhaps even push up the pps to next level… in the $5 to $6 range.
Some of you may think that my analysis is somewhat pessimistic… while the others may consider it way too optimistic. I can understand your rationale… because to this day, I still battle with my optimism and pessimism on a daily basis.
I would not say that the current stock pps is so great that it represents the exuberance of the year 2000… the Dot.com era. Nor does it represent the enthusiasm of a long waited product validation and launch. The current price, I believe, is based on a combination of facts that are still not very clear and people hedging bets that they will reap a significant reward by investing at lower levels. The volume has been up and I cannot detect any significant profit taking at this point. The MVIS story has substance in product and potential for the long term investors.
Obviously there are several companies that have committed to MVIS in the form of contracts to distribute the SHOWwx. I would find it hard to believe that these companies would make such a commitment without some degree of due diligence in both the supply and demand equation. Without going into details, let me say that I do not think a price of $550 for SHOWwx is too much… although it is a lot.
Profit from the SHOWwx is a short term cash flow gig and has never been the driving factor for the company's long term goal. We all know that the embedded PicoP─ in all things digital─ is the “holy grail”. However, that thinking may be changing considering the fact that SHOWwx does have many may applications and once second generation green laser production is up and the cost goes down the SHOWwx could be very profitable… especially when it is sold directly from the company’s on-line store.
I strongly believe that Microvision could be on its way to breakeven operation… as early as at the end of Q1 of 2011.
Anant Goel
PS: Thanks to "Sam" from YMB for letting me use some of his words and quotes.
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
I have followed this company for nearly 12 years... but did not start investing in it until 2007, because they did not have a plan for building revenue until they brought on Alex Tokman. Microvision had all the symptoms of being an interesting science project with very little else to do with monetizing the technology… but all that changed after the 2006 re-organization when Tokman was appointed as the CEO. Many of you would agree that he is not there to build a science experiment… he is there to build a solid business based on solid technology, wrapped up as tightly in IP as a 200+ patent portfolio would allow.
The reason I mention Oppenheimer report as the point of reference… because, it is perhaps the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis of Microvision’s business and financial model by an institutional analyst. Even though I don’t agree with their projections of Microvision revenues and profit margins, I don’t see any reason to pick a fight over numbers that none of us can be hundred percent sure… one way or the other.
One more thing…
Recently, someone suggested “brevity as a virtue”. So, from now on, unless I’m writing the next chapter to my book, I plan on presenting my findings, research, analysis and conclusions in this very virtuous manner... that is, as briefly as possible.
So, here we go...
There is confluence of evidence that Microvision has launched its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US market on March 8th, 2010. It is also evident that SHOWwx is being sold in the US; directly from Microvision website...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/index.html
Now, the next question is about profit margins, revenues and the timeline for operational “breakeven”... where the operating profits sustain the operating cost on a monthly basis.
Looking at all the available information─ the annual report, the latest earnings report and the Q&A from the most recent earnings conference call ─ my analysis shows the breakeven Qtr as Q1 of 2011.
Here’s why…
First Qtr of 2011
Total Revenue: $30.95 million
- Contract Revenue: $955,000… based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 15% per Qtr growth
- Product Revenue: $30,000,000… based on 60,000 SHOWwx sold in Q1, 2011 at $500 bundled price with VGA doc.
- Cost of Contract Revenue: $487,000
- Cost of Product Revenue: $18,000,000… COG at 60% [40% margins with green laser cost at $90 or less]. Assumes direct & affiliate on-line store sales.
Total Operating Expenses: $11.975 million
- Research & Development: $7.806 million… based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 1% growth.
- Sales, General & Admin: $4.169 million…based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 2% growth.
- Others: $0
Net Income from Continuing Operations: $500,000
- Other Income/Expenses Net: $0
- Earnings before Interest & Taxes: $494,000
- Interest Income: $24,000
- Interest Expenses: $18,000
Income Tax Expenses: $0
Minority Interest/Other Expenses: $0
Total Non Recurring Events: $0
- Discontinued Operations: $0
- Extraordinary Items: $0
- Effect of Accounting Changes: $0
- Other Items: $0
Net Income Applicable to Common: $500,000
Shares Outstanding: 90.136 million… includes 5 million share worth additional funding in August 2010 and the rest for stock options.
Earnings Per Share: $0.006
I am not going to attempt to persuade you; towards my way of thinking. However, I just feel that this is a very different point in time for Microvision, where a real product has been launched… and that will change the way information and entertainment is displayed in the mobile world. There are other companies that are getting these pico products out there... but, I see their product introduction to the market as the “teaser horses". And as “Sam” from the Yahoo Message Board says…
“... if you know anything about horse breeding; you do not want to come back as a teaser horse. Sure you get into the breeding shed, but even if the mare accepts the jump; poor Picho still loses out as he's fitted with a leather apron to ensure that his efforts, in advance of the waiting stud, remain chaste.”
Is Microvision the "stud" of the stable?
Well, we just have to wait and see when we get our hands on that SHOWwx on order!
When all is said and done, in the end, I see Microvision’s laser PDEs to dominate pico projection technology… and I have seen nothing from any of the other companies that would dissuade me from this view.
Do the delays frustrate the heck out of me?
Yes!
Do I wish I had my own SHOWwx months ago to use in presentations...and gift them to my friends and family?
Yes!
As far as missed deadlines go, the biggest issue was Corning misguided judgment that they would have green lasers in quantity 2 years ago… a major failure in projecting the production timeline. I, for one did not drain my brain worrying about the exact definition of the end of summer launch in 2009. I have seen new product releases before and I am well aware that if there is a situation where Murphy's Law might apply… then the September 2009 launch was one of them.
I’m very encouraged that Corning has finally overcome the G-1000 green laser production issues… and the second generation G-2000 is coming along nicely for production in Q4 of 2010. I am also very encouraged that OSRAM is making good progress and has started shipping small quantities of green laser to Microvision. It will not surprise me at all, if Microvision were to announce the Osram shipping good news any day soon.
If Osram (and Corning) can overcome the last mile quality production hurdles, we will see validation in a cell phone… with product available in the market by early 2011. Frankly, I do not care who is or was first to market. I think we will see some announcements before the end of April/May this year to help support the stock price and perhaps even push up the pps to next level… in the $5 to $6 range.
Some of you may think that my analysis is somewhat pessimistic… while the others may consider it way too optimistic. I can understand your rationale… because to this day, I still battle with my optimism and pessimism on a daily basis.
I would not say that the current stock pps is so great that it represents the exuberance of the year 2000… the Dot.com era. Nor does it represent the enthusiasm of a long waited product validation and launch. The current price, I believe, is based on a combination of facts that are still not very clear and people hedging bets that they will reap a significant reward by investing at lower levels. The volume has been up and I cannot detect any significant profit taking at this point. The MVIS story has substance in product and potential for the long term investors.
Obviously there are several companies that have committed to MVIS in the form of contracts to distribute the SHOWwx. I would find it hard to believe that these companies would make such a commitment without some degree of due diligence in both the supply and demand equation. Without going into details, let me say that I do not think a price of $550 for SHOWwx is too much… although it is a lot.
Profit from the SHOWwx is a short term cash flow gig and has never been the driving factor for the company's long term goal. We all know that the embedded PicoP─ in all things digital─ is the “holy grail”. However, that thinking may be changing considering the fact that SHOWwx does have many may applications and once second generation green laser production is up and the cost goes down the SHOWwx could be very profitable… especially when it is sold directly from the company’s on-line store.
I strongly believe that Microvision could be on its way to breakeven operation… as early as at the end of Q1 of 2011.
Anant Goel
PS: Thanks to "Sam" from YMB for letting me use some of his words and quotes.
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Pico Projectors Hit the Commercial Market
That is the title of a trade journal article published by Electronics Weekly…
Pico projectors hit the commercial market
Richard Wilson
Tuesday 16 March 2010 11:18
Pico projectors are set for a massive jump in shipments during the next four years as they hit a number of commercial markets including mobile phones, according to analyst iSuppli.
Shipments will rise to more than three million units in 2013, up from less than 50,000 units in 2009.
In the middle of last year, Texas Instruments demonstrated 3D-ready projectors and lamp-free data projectors based on the company's DLP chip technology.
The chip uses an array of millions of micro-mirrors which can be switched at high speed, which enables the simultaneous display of left-eye and right-eye images required for the brain to create a 3D picture.
It is the rapid refresh rate of the DLP chip which supports 3D viewing.
According to TI, as many as 30 manufacturers will have projectors on the market soon, including BenQ, InFocus, LightSpeed, Mitsubishi, Optoma, Sharp and ViewSonic.
Continues…
First, here’s the link to the article that I’m talking about…
http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/03/16/48208/pico-projectors-hit-the-commercial-market.htm
This article is so superficial in its coverage that it not only lacks depth but also the breadth in its coverage. What surprised me most were the many inaccuracies in the article and shockingly there was no mention of Microvision that launched the world’s first laser based PicoP™ projector SHOWwx in September of 2009… and most recently, on March 8th, Microvision started selling their laser based pico projector to the US customers.
Don’t you think it is shocking to see that the main author [Richard Wilson] and iSuppli projection analyst Sanju Khatri wrote this article about pico projectors but completely ignored the existence of Microvision and its laser pico projector SHOWwx? I’m sure you know, like the millions of Internet savvy global consumers do, that Microvision’s laser pico projector SHOWwx won the CES 2010 “Last Gadget Standing” award in January… and the MacWorld 2010 “Best of Show” award in February.
Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP Display Engine technology exists today and beats the competition from 3M [LED/LcoS technology] and TI [LED/DLP technology] in most all respects.
First take a look at quality of the projected images from SHOWwx and then look at its specifications… and you will see why Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP projector is so much better than the competition.
Here’s the link to SHOWwx video clip…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0
Here’s the side by side comparison with the competition…
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
Here’s the list of differentiating features of SHOWwx…
http://www.microvision.com/showwx/specs.html
In the embedded market space, I don’t see any of the competitors coming close to Microvision in this race… not even Taxes Instruments with their power guzzling million-micromirrors based pico projector. The likes of 3M and Displaytech will never get down to acceptable levels of size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost requirements… as they will have the “gating issues”. Pico projectors that use million micromirrors or LcoS panels [with lenses and optics] just can’t cut the mustard in terms of physical size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost.
I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection space... like Displaytech with FLCOS, 3M with LcoS, and TI with DLP technologies.
However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.
Microvision’s laser PicoP Display Engine will lead the rat pack because of the following:
• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.
• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) in the standalone version will make the competition at par with Microvision’s SHOWwx... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?
Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine produces virtually zero heat due to lasers being used as the light source and also due to on/off switching of lasers during dark image segments. Competing pico projection technologies of others produce enough waste heat to cook eggs... sunny side up for sure.
• “A wide angle view means that Microvision’s PDE can show a wider screen at closer distance!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's PDE you get…
"A wider image [80 inch from 7 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus."
• Laser based PicoP Display Engines will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.
• Microvision’s PDE has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.
• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based PicoP Display Engine do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.
• Microvision’s PDE can go from 12” to 200” diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.
• Microvision’s PDE projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.
• Microvision’ PDE projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.
• Microvision’s PDE has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.
• Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser [G-2000] from Corning.
After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…
"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."
Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/
Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx [and PDEs for embedded applications] with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Pico projectors hit the commercial market
Richard Wilson
Tuesday 16 March 2010 11:18
Pico projectors are set for a massive jump in shipments during the next four years as they hit a number of commercial markets including mobile phones, according to analyst iSuppli.
Shipments will rise to more than three million units in 2013, up from less than 50,000 units in 2009.
In the middle of last year, Texas Instruments demonstrated 3D-ready projectors and lamp-free data projectors based on the company's DLP chip technology.
The chip uses an array of millions of micro-mirrors which can be switched at high speed, which enables the simultaneous display of left-eye and right-eye images required for the brain to create a 3D picture.
It is the rapid refresh rate of the DLP chip which supports 3D viewing.
According to TI, as many as 30 manufacturers will have projectors on the market soon, including BenQ, InFocus, LightSpeed, Mitsubishi, Optoma, Sharp and ViewSonic.
Continues…
*****
After reading this article, I could not help wonder if this was a trade journal article on the subject of pico projectors or an infomercial for Texas Instruments, Samsung, Mitsubishi and other advertisers of Electronics Weekly. First, here’s the link to the article that I’m talking about…
http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/03/16/48208/pico-projectors-hit-the-commercial-market.htm
This article is so superficial in its coverage that it not only lacks depth but also the breadth in its coverage. What surprised me most were the many inaccuracies in the article and shockingly there was no mention of Microvision that launched the world’s first laser based PicoP™ projector SHOWwx in September of 2009… and most recently, on March 8th, Microvision started selling their laser based pico projector to the US customers.
Don’t you think it is shocking to see that the main author [Richard Wilson] and iSuppli projection analyst Sanju Khatri wrote this article about pico projectors but completely ignored the existence of Microvision and its laser pico projector SHOWwx? I’m sure you know, like the millions of Internet savvy global consumers do, that Microvision’s laser pico projector SHOWwx won the CES 2010 “Last Gadget Standing” award in January… and the MacWorld 2010 “Best of Show” award in February.
Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP Display Engine technology exists today and beats the competition from 3M [LED/LcoS technology] and TI [LED/DLP technology] in most all respects.
First take a look at quality of the projected images from SHOWwx and then look at its specifications… and you will see why Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP projector is so much better than the competition.
Here’s the link to SHOWwx video clip…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0
Here’s the side by side comparison with the competition…
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
Here’s the list of differentiating features of SHOWwx…
http://www.microvision.com/showwx/specs.html
In the embedded market space, I don’t see any of the competitors coming close to Microvision in this race… not even Taxes Instruments with their power guzzling million-micromirrors based pico projector. The likes of 3M and Displaytech will never get down to acceptable levels of size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost requirements… as they will have the “gating issues”. Pico projectors that use million micromirrors or LcoS panels [with lenses and optics] just can’t cut the mustard in terms of physical size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost.
I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection space... like Displaytech with FLCOS, 3M with LcoS, and TI with DLP technologies.
However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.
Microvision’s laser PicoP Display Engine will lead the rat pack because of the following:
• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.
• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) in the standalone version will make the competition at par with Microvision’s SHOWwx... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?
Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine produces virtually zero heat due to lasers being used as the light source and also due to on/off switching of lasers during dark image segments. Competing pico projection technologies of others produce enough waste heat to cook eggs... sunny side up for sure.
• “A wide angle view means that Microvision’s PDE can show a wider screen at closer distance!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's PDE you get…
"A wider image [80 inch from 7 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus."
• Laser based PicoP Display Engines will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.
• Microvision’s PDE has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.
• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based PicoP Display Engine do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.
• Microvision’s PDE can go from 12” to 200” diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.
• Microvision’s PDE projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.
• Microvision’ PDE projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.
• Microvision’s PDE has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.
• Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser [G-2000] from Corning.
After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…
"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."
Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/
Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx [and PDEs for embedded applications] with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
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