Sunday, October 18, 2009

Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime (Part 1)

The cost of missing out can be greater than the cost of messing up.

“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.”
…Leonard Ravenhill

From time to time, during the course of our lives, we are granted the "opportunity of a lifetime.  It's a chance that doesn't come our way very often, and usually one that would result in enormous financial benefits to us… if we can manage to get hold of it before it fades away.

While it's true that certain opportunities only occur "once in a lifetime," that doesn't mean there won't be other opportunities coming our way.  However, when you look closely enough, most opportunities are literally "once in a lifetime" chances – meaning; each opportunity has its own uniqueness, benefits, life cycle and level of results. Rarely are we presented with the same exact opportunity twice in a row. They are all special and important in their own ways. Some of them are BIG opportunities that will propel us directly to our desired outcome in one great leap, while others are smaller and might move us forward just a tiny bit.

Microvision stock [NASDAQ: MVIS] is an investment that represents the opportunity of a lifetime… in our lifetime. And it is a BIG opportunity that can propel us to our financial goals in one great leap within our active lifetime… like in the next 4 to 5 years.

Here are FIVE REASONS not to let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…

The continued and almost parabolic rise from the recent lows [made in March] in stocks like Microvision [MVIS] and major indices is almost a case study as to why it pays to stay invested. For those investors who got shaken out by the almost unrelenting selling witnessed in November [last year] and in March [this year], the move up since has been equally as distressing… for those who remained short or stayed on the sidelines.

In case of Microvision, while a bounce from the lows of $0.77 cents was widely expected, the fact that it has been sustained for so long [currently trading at $5.48] is interesting. Since the beginning of March, the major indices have moved up by over 60% [and MVIS has moved up over 600%], truly showcasing the Market in its most manic state. The 600% move up in MVIS is not only due to overall improvement in the general Market, but also due to the commercial release, by Microvision, of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx on September 15th, 2009.

After three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, another announcement made [on 10/8/2009] of a major OEM purchase order comes as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…

“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.

We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the two purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs represent as …

• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.

• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.

• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.

• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.

• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.

• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments.

• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 115 issued patents and with many more on file.

• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser based PicoP projectors as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.

• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.

• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.

• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.

We can quibble about any one of the above and despair that there are no solid numbers as yet. However, the announcement of big name [names yet to be disclosed] Global consumer electronic distributors and OEMs signing on the dotted line validates all of the above that is important to the financial viability of Microvision as a company… as well as a financial investment opportunity of a life time for us.

Some of you may argue that…

“… with the MVIS stock up more than 600% already in the last six months, may be its time for the stock to take a breather and come down a bit.”

It is possible, but I won’t count on that for the following reasons…

• Currently, there is over 10% [7.65 million shares] short interest in Microvision.  And with MVIS stock rising almost daily, the short sellers are now gritting their teeth by day and grinding them at night as nothing seems effective to prompt a sell-off.  Neither poor corporate profitability nor tempered economic forecasts have been able to do the trick. In fact, the continued move up by the market [and MVIS] has been among the most parabolic in its recorded history.

• There is an overwhelming expectation for some kind of a pullback by many market [and MVIS] participants. However, when it will occur and to what degree is still a matter of conjecture. It appears that the psychology of the market seems to be shifting. No longer does it appear that investors are looking down at the bottom. Instead, they are, it appears, to be looking up at the rays of sunlight.

• While no real indication as to which direction the market is going in the short-term, the mid to long-term thesis is that the current financial crisis is almost over and the market [and MVIS stock] will be in a better and stronger position 36 to 48 months from now. Here’s an update on he overall health of the market…

o A clear business recovery is gaining momentum.
o The sideline money is flowing back into the market—and in a big way.
o Jobless claims are declining, and the massive layoffs the press has been predicting are not materializing.
o Manufacturing is expanding and triggering a boost in consumer confidence.
o The housing market is clearly recovering, too. Just look at how the S&P’s Homebuilding Index has risen by more than 30% percent this year.
o Only 16% of the Fed stimulus money has been spent to date. When the rest of that money begins to flow, the big earnings moves we’ve seen to date will look like a drop in the bucket… as more and more companies collect their stimulus funds and report even higher earnings.
• After the release on September 15th, the world’s first PicoP projector by Microvision is gaining huge investment community interest and also some raving reviews. As the times goes on, I expect a growing world wide awareness of: Microvision name, its PicoP display technology and the financial investment opportunity it represents for many years to come. It took Intel 20 odd years to gain ubiquitous status with its famous “Intel Inside” slogan. It may take Microvision half as long with its “Image by PicoP” slogan. We just have to wait and see.

• Demand for Microvision's PicoP display engines is five times the number of green lasers that are currently available from Corning… according to Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, at the last conference call in May 2009. Osram is coming on board with more production quantities of green laser becoming available in the fourth quarter 2009. Hopefully, that will ease-up some green laser supply issues facing Microvision at the present time.

• Corning and Osram [the two green laser supply chain partners] are improving the production quantities, the laser light technology, performance and price on a monthly basis. The next generation of green laser [Corning GL-2000] and Microvision's high definition PicoP display engine will bear this out.

• We could hear additional OEM purchase orders on a monthly basis as more and more green lasers become available from the two supply chain partners… Corning and Osram.

The availability and quality of green lasers will be crucial not only to the viability of Microvision’s PicoP display technology… but also to its financial success as a growth company. The most recent news about green lasers only reinforces my belief that Microvision will be a huge financial success…

Japan's QD Laser has developed a compact green laser that could energize the market for high-definition micro projectors.

Martyn Williams, IDG News Service
Saturday, October 10, 2009 06:00 PM PDT

Here’s the link to the news article…

What’s so significant about this news is the statement…

“QD Laser is planning mass production next year and the laser should cost around US$10, said Mitsuru Sugawara, the company's president and CEO, during an interview at Ceatec. That will make it significantly cheaper than the only other competitor on the market, a micro green laser from Corning, according to Sugawara.”

The last point in support of my REASON #1 is…

“With all the validation of Microvision and its PicoP display technology that has taken place in the last one month, together with its portfolio of other products, patents and IP... if Microvision were to come to the Market today with an IPO, it could easily fetch $20 per share for a market valuation in excess of $1.5 billion dollars.

And that could still be on the low side considering…

“… that in 2003, MVIS stock traded for over $63 dollars at a time when it still had no PicoP projector… no PicoP display engine… no PicoP projector prototype… no PicoP customers … and had less than one third the portfolio of patents it has today.”

Stay tuned for REASON #2… as we move forward in our journey to explore “Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime”

Anant Goel