Someone asked the obvious question: "What if a company does make an offer?"
Well, here's what I think...
If a company makes an offer and Microvision management turns it down then they [the suitor] have the option of going directly to the shareholders and try to get them to agree to a PPS rejected by the management. At that time, management would make their case to the shareholders why the takeover offer is too low and that there is more value to remaining independent.
If we can make a case on the back of a napkin for $100 per share in next 5 years, then I am sure a Six Sigma Master Black Belt CEO of Microvision can do the same. The current management team did not come to Microvision to preside over the sale just as they are about to achieve commercial success.
Here are some back-of-the-napkin CONSERVATIVE figures…
Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $400 range. Here’s the projection…
• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, camcorders, digital cameras, mobile TV/Projectors, etc.]
• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable displays]
• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units
• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units
• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine
• Revenue: $4 billion
• Net Profit Margin: 40%
• Net Profit: $1.6 billion
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.55 billion [with operating expenses at $50 million]
• Interest Expense: $0 million
• Interest Income: $20 million
• Tax: $120million
• Depreciation: non cash and very small
• Amortization: non cash and very small
• Net Operating Income: $1.5 billion
• Earning Per Share: $16.60 on a fully diluted basis [90 million shares]
• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company
• Price Per Share: $500 per share approximately
In my book, the Risk is insignificant [may be 3% per year in lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making 100 times your money in the next 5 years.
A standard way to value a company, or any investment, is the Dividend Discount approach. Other closely related approaches are: Discounted Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow, and Economic Value Added (EVA), a trademark of Stern & Stewart. To use any of these methods, the analyst projects future payoffs to the investor, then discounts these payoffs to their present value.
No matter what approach you choose, you still have a hyper growth company that is worth at least high double digit PPS in today’s value.
As someone said…
“This is a $100 stock in a $5.28 wrapper.”
The competition knows that.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Showing posts with label GE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GE. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Monday, October 19, 2009
Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime (Part 4)
The cost of missing out can be greater than the cost of messing up.
“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.”
…Leonard Ravenhill
Here’s the REASON #4… to not let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…
REASON #4
It is my belief that in the coming short years, all sorts of video devices and services will dominate our communications world.
Here’s why…
Research shows that we humans prefer video communication over any other forms of communications. The reason cited is that retina is actually a piece of the brain that has grown into the eye and processes neural signals when it detects light.
What does this mean, in simple terms, to us humans… specifically for our preference for visual over any other forms of communications like sound, smell and touch? Well, this may be because our brain [in the retina] receives information first and processes it before that received from other channels [like audio, smell or touch].
May be this “brain in the retina” explains why survey after survey, the research points to our preference for “Video” over “Widgets”. Recent research survey from CES 2009 enforces the belief that “Video will continue to be the preferred means of all human communications”.
Now, let’s take it a step further and gather some information from real life consumers that are user of communications products… to establish their preferences and requirements:
• Video vs. Other Forms of Communications: Research has shown that users prefer video communication over other forms of communication [sound, smell, touch] and video will continue to be the preferred means of all human communications.
• Users Preference for Image Quality: Research has shown that users prefer wide screen, high definition, 2D/3D video with fast refresh [without motion blur] and always in focus images for all forms of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• User Preference for Mobility: The entire world [users and service providers] is getting into the instant gratification mode and going mobile in all forms of communications and entertainment across the globe.
• Product Features Leading to Technological Convergence: Technological convergence is the tendency for different technological systems to evolve towards performing similar tasks. Today, we are surrounded by a multi-level convergent media world where all modes of communication and information are continually reforming to adapt to the enduring demands of technologies, “changing the way we create, consume, entertain, learn and interact with each other”.
Convergence in this instance is defined as the interlinking of computing and other information technologies, media content and communication networks that have arisen as the result of the evolution and ubiquity of the Internet as well as the activities, products and services that have emerged in the digital media space.
• Customers Requirements: Customers desire all digital/video devices to be low power, low cost, multi-media enabled, multi-tasking, integrated & all inclusive, easy to use, low maintenance, professionally supported and warranty serviced.
• Consumer Defined Shared vs. Private Information: Consumers desire the option [in product models or optional features] or built-in switch able flexibility in these digital/video devices to be able to switch between “shared” vs. “private” mode.
It is my belief that in the coming short years, products and services like the following will flourish…
• Pico Projectors for large Image Experience from Portable Computing and Small Mobile Devices (like laptops, cell phones, smartphones, media players, digital cameras, camcorders, etc.)
• High Definition Lamp and Pico Projectors in Home Theater for Shared Viewing Experience
• Pico Projectors in HD Mobile TV/Projector for shared viewing experience
• Pico Projectors in Mobile TV for private viewing experience…like watching TV in bed for mom and dad… and personal mobile TV/Projector for little Jonny.
• Green PicoP Projector in Mobile TV for shared viewing experience… targeting the third world countries with focus on low energy consumption.
• Display Eyewear
• Augmented Virtual Reality
• 3D and Hologram Images
• Night Vision
• Interactive Video Gaming
• Video on Demand
• Music Videos
• Visual Learning Systems & Simulators
• Video/Audio Transcription
Microvision is in the right place at the right time with the commercial availability of their laser based PicoP display engine developer’s kit [PEK] for use in multitude of above mentioned applications… besides the recently launched world’s first laser PicoP projector code named SHOWwx.
Laser based PicoP display engine specs and features are several notches above the competition… namely:
“always in focus, hi-resolution images, large size images from 12” to 100”, wide projection angle, rich and vivid colors with wider color gamut, small/sleek form factor, short throw ratio, longer battery power, simple plug n play, and movie capable (production version expected 2-3 hour battery life).”
Microvision’s PicoP display engine offers enhanced and superior specs and features compared to what’s considered desirable at this stage of Pico projection development…
• Size: The height or thickness of the projector is its most important characteristic; the technology must be able to be embedded in thin handheld devices. Both height and volume should be minimized. The initial products will have projector engine sizes ranging in height from 7 to 14 mm and in overall volume from 5 to 10 cc.
• Brightness: The brighter the better. Brightness is limited by the available brightness of the light sources, either lasers or LEDs, the optical efficiency of the projector design, and by the need for low-power operation in order to maximize battery life. Initial product offerings will be in the range of 5-10 lumens.
• Image size: In general, the shorter the distance it takes for the projector to produce large images, the better—at least up to a point. A one-to-one distance/image-size ratio (projection angle of 53 degrees) is probably a good target. The first round of products on the market will have projection angles in the range of 30-45 degrees.
• Focus-free operation: Focus-free operation is a very desirable attribute in mobile applications. It is like “point and shoot” in a camera. Unlike typical projectors used in business settings, pico-projectors are designed for mobile use (in other words, the distance from the projector to the image will likely change often).
• Resolution: Resolution can be expected to continue to grow as product technology matures. The wide screen format is generally desirable for viewing video content. Initial product offerings will typically offer resolutions from QVGA (320 x 240) to WVGA (848 x 480).
• Color: Pico-projectors typically use either lasers or red, green and blue LEDs for light sources. In both cases, the result is large color gamut that far exceeds the usual color range experience of TVs, monitors, and conference-room-type projectors. White LEDs used with color filters yield a reduced color gamut.
• Contrast: The higher the better. Just as brightness is a measure of the absolute whiteness of pico- projectors, contrast is the measure of their absolute darkness. Contrast is the dynamic range of a display, making the difference between washed out images and crisp dramatic-looking images.
• Battery life: A starting goal for mobile devices is that they should last for the length of a complete movie. This puts the lower limit at around 1.5 hours.
Laser based Pico display technology is superior to what’s out there right now… DLP by Texas Instruments, LcoS by 3M and FLCOS by Micron Displaytech. The competition believed that green lasers wouldn’t be ready for years and its cost would be excessive. They also had concerns about laser projection “speckle” and laser safety issues. It is for these reasons, in my opinion, that they did not pursue the laser pico display technology path and essentially left the laser PicoP technology to Microvision un-contested.
Microvision on the other hand believed in the green lasers as being the differentiating technology that would make PicoP display engine as superior to LEDs based Pico projection technology… and also as a serious contender, in terms of quality and brightness of images, to the lamp based projection technology.
There were several hic-ups along the way. However, after three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, and 115 issued patents later, the world’s first laser based PicoP projector was commercially launched on September 15th, 2009.
Not only that, another announcement was made [on 10/8/2009] of a major OEM purchase order as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…
“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the two purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs represent as …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.
• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.
• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.
• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments.
• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 115 issued patents and with many more on file.
• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser based PicoP projectors as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.
• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.
• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.
• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.
Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser PicoP projectors to consumers and PicoP display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed PicoP display technology.
Is Microvision [NASDAQ: MVIS] ready for prime time SHOW time and worthy of your investment dollars… you be the judge?
Stay tuned for REASON #5… as we move forward in our journey to explore “Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.”
…Leonard Ravenhill
Here’s the REASON #4… to not let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…
REASON #4
It is my belief that in the coming short years, all sorts of video devices and services will dominate our communications world.
Here’s why…
Research shows that we humans prefer video communication over any other forms of communications. The reason cited is that retina is actually a piece of the brain that has grown into the eye and processes neural signals when it detects light.
What does this mean, in simple terms, to us humans… specifically for our preference for visual over any other forms of communications like sound, smell and touch? Well, this may be because our brain [in the retina] receives information first and processes it before that received from other channels [like audio, smell or touch].
May be this “brain in the retina” explains why survey after survey, the research points to our preference for “Video” over “Widgets”. Recent research survey from CES 2009 enforces the belief that “Video will continue to be the preferred means of all human communications”.
Now, let’s take it a step further and gather some information from real life consumers that are user of communications products… to establish their preferences and requirements:
• Video vs. Other Forms of Communications: Research has shown that users prefer video communication over other forms of communication [sound, smell, touch] and video will continue to be the preferred means of all human communications.
• Users Preference for Image Quality: Research has shown that users prefer wide screen, high definition, 2D/3D video with fast refresh [without motion blur] and always in focus images for all forms of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• User Preference for Mobility: The entire world [users and service providers] is getting into the instant gratification mode and going mobile in all forms of communications and entertainment across the globe.
• Product Features Leading to Technological Convergence: Technological convergence is the tendency for different technological systems to evolve towards performing similar tasks. Today, we are surrounded by a multi-level convergent media world where all modes of communication and information are continually reforming to adapt to the enduring demands of technologies, “changing the way we create, consume, entertain, learn and interact with each other”.
Convergence in this instance is defined as the interlinking of computing and other information technologies, media content and communication networks that have arisen as the result of the evolution and ubiquity of the Internet as well as the activities, products and services that have emerged in the digital media space.
• Customers Requirements: Customers desire all digital/video devices to be low power, low cost, multi-media enabled, multi-tasking, integrated & all inclusive, easy to use, low maintenance, professionally supported and warranty serviced.
• Consumer Defined Shared vs. Private Information: Consumers desire the option [in product models or optional features] or built-in switch able flexibility in these digital/video devices to be able to switch between “shared” vs. “private” mode.
It is my belief that in the coming short years, products and services like the following will flourish…
• Pico Projectors for large Image Experience from Portable Computing and Small Mobile Devices (like laptops, cell phones, smartphones, media players, digital cameras, camcorders, etc.)
• High Definition Lamp and Pico Projectors in Home Theater for Shared Viewing Experience
• Pico Projectors in HD Mobile TV/Projector for shared viewing experience
• Pico Projectors in Mobile TV for private viewing experience…like watching TV in bed for mom and dad… and personal mobile TV/Projector for little Jonny.
• Green PicoP Projector in Mobile TV for shared viewing experience… targeting the third world countries with focus on low energy consumption.
• Display Eyewear
• Augmented Virtual Reality
• 3D and Hologram Images
• Night Vision
• Interactive Video Gaming
• Video on Demand
• Music Videos
• Visual Learning Systems & Simulators
• Video/Audio Transcription
Microvision is in the right place at the right time with the commercial availability of their laser based PicoP display engine developer’s kit [PEK] for use in multitude of above mentioned applications… besides the recently launched world’s first laser PicoP projector code named SHOWwx.
Laser based PicoP display engine specs and features are several notches above the competition… namely:
“always in focus, hi-resolution images, large size images from 12” to 100”, wide projection angle, rich and vivid colors with wider color gamut, small/sleek form factor, short throw ratio, longer battery power, simple plug n play, and movie capable (production version expected 2-3 hour battery life).”
Microvision’s PicoP display engine offers enhanced and superior specs and features compared to what’s considered desirable at this stage of Pico projection development…
• Size: The height or thickness of the projector is its most important characteristic; the technology must be able to be embedded in thin handheld devices. Both height and volume should be minimized. The initial products will have projector engine sizes ranging in height from 7 to 14 mm and in overall volume from 5 to 10 cc.
• Brightness: The brighter the better. Brightness is limited by the available brightness of the light sources, either lasers or LEDs, the optical efficiency of the projector design, and by the need for low-power operation in order to maximize battery life. Initial product offerings will be in the range of 5-10 lumens.
• Image size: In general, the shorter the distance it takes for the projector to produce large images, the better—at least up to a point. A one-to-one distance/image-size ratio (projection angle of 53 degrees) is probably a good target. The first round of products on the market will have projection angles in the range of 30-45 degrees.
• Focus-free operation: Focus-free operation is a very desirable attribute in mobile applications. It is like “point and shoot” in a camera. Unlike typical projectors used in business settings, pico-projectors are designed for mobile use (in other words, the distance from the projector to the image will likely change often).
• Resolution: Resolution can be expected to continue to grow as product technology matures. The wide screen format is generally desirable for viewing video content. Initial product offerings will typically offer resolutions from QVGA (320 x 240) to WVGA (848 x 480).
• Color: Pico-projectors typically use either lasers or red, green and blue LEDs for light sources. In both cases, the result is large color gamut that far exceeds the usual color range experience of TVs, monitors, and conference-room-type projectors. White LEDs used with color filters yield a reduced color gamut.
• Contrast: The higher the better. Just as brightness is a measure of the absolute whiteness of pico- projectors, contrast is the measure of their absolute darkness. Contrast is the dynamic range of a display, making the difference between washed out images and crisp dramatic-looking images.
• Battery life: A starting goal for mobile devices is that they should last for the length of a complete movie. This puts the lower limit at around 1.5 hours.
Laser based Pico display technology is superior to what’s out there right now… DLP by Texas Instruments, LcoS by 3M and FLCOS by Micron Displaytech. The competition believed that green lasers wouldn’t be ready for years and its cost would be excessive. They also had concerns about laser projection “speckle” and laser safety issues. It is for these reasons, in my opinion, that they did not pursue the laser pico display technology path and essentially left the laser PicoP technology to Microvision un-contested.
Microvision on the other hand believed in the green lasers as being the differentiating technology that would make PicoP display engine as superior to LEDs based Pico projection technology… and also as a serious contender, in terms of quality and brightness of images, to the lamp based projection technology.
There were several hic-ups along the way. However, after three years of hard work, anxious wait for green lasers and sweating it each passing day, and 115 issued patents later, the world’s first laser based PicoP projector was commercially launched on September 15th, 2009.
Not only that, another announcement was made [on 10/8/2009] of a major OEM purchase order as a major milestone accomplished in the history of Microvision. The stakeholders of Microvision [investors, partners and consumers] can finally take comfort in this announcement as a milestone that…
“…validates the performance and quality of our first laser projector offering. On the heels of announcing our first shipments of the SHOWwx laser pico projector, and receiving the purchase order from an international distributor, this is another significant milestone in our go-to-market strategy.” ... Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision.
We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “validation” phase. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the two purchase orders from global consumer electronic OEMs represent as …
• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.
• Validation of Corning's green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.
• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.
• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size and always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.
• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.
• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.
• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments.
• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 115 issued patents and with many more on file.
• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser based PicoP projectors as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.
• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.
• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.
• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.
Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser PicoP projectors to consumers and PicoP display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed PicoP display technology.
Is Microvision [NASDAQ: MVIS] ready for prime time SHOW time and worthy of your investment dollars… you be the judge?
Stay tuned for REASON #5… as we move forward in our journey to explore “Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime (Part 3)
The cost of missing out can be greater than the cost of messing up.
“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.”
…Leonard Ravenhill
So much for the energy savings benefit of laser based PicoP display engines. Now lets turn our heads to the next waves of change [or paradigm shift] coming upon us.
First, the commercial...
"Microvision stock [NASDAQ: MVIS] is an investment that represents the opportunity of a lifetime… in our lifetime. And it is a BIG opportunity that can propel us to our financial goals in one great leap within our active lifetime… like in the next 4 to 5 years."
Next, the REASON #3... to not let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…
REASON #3
We already know the ubiquitous nature of the Internet, the laptops and Mobile phones around the world. However, what we may not know that there is yet another mega change taking place right under our noses…
• Smartphones are rapidly replacing the classic mobile phones around the globe
“Worldwide mobile phone sales totalled 286.1 million units in the second quarter of 2009, a 6.1 per cent decrease from the second quarter of 2008, according to Gartner, Inc. Smartphone sales surpassed 40 million units, a 27 per cent increase from the same period last year, representing the fastest-growing segment of the mobile-devices market.”
Here’s the link to Gartner report…
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1126812
"Smartphone sales were strong during the second quarter of 2009, with sales of 40.9 million units in line with Gartner's forecast of 27 per cent year-on-year sales growth for 2009," said Ms Milanesi. "Given the higher margins, smartphones offer the biggest opportunity for manufacturers. It is the fastest-growing market segment and the most resistant to declining ASPs."
Smartphones are feature rich mobile devices that consist of a mini-laptop with built-in mobile phone and connected to a service provider [carrier] via a broadband mobile network like the 3G… or the future 4G. Smartphones are feature rich mobile phones and one of the key features that have plans to be offered in the high-end smartphones is a pico projector… as an accessory unit initially… followed by the embedded version in 2010. Future smartphones are expected to include, or offered as an option, a pico projector as a standard unit just like the digital camera is today.
• Pico projectors are being developed as an embedded feature in all things digital
The next popular categories that integrate pico projectors would be mobile computing [laptops] and communication [cell phones, Smartphones] devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as personal media players [iPod], digital cameras, digital camcorders and Integrated Mobile TV/projectors.
Why pico projectors are such a rage all of a sudden… you may ask?
That’s a fair question and can be answered in four parts…
Part 1: Pico Projectors can add Big Screen Experience to Small Devices
Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat: “As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded pico projectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal.
Part 2: Rapidly Evolving Illumination Technologies like LEDs and Green Lasers Make Pico Projectors Possible
In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that Pico projectors will become part and parcel of relatively low cost cell phones, media players and other digital consumer electronic devices.
“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making Pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.
Part 3: Powerful & Always Connected Functions Rich Devices with Enhanced Visual Experience
Today, the mobile devices are ubiquitous and if you were to project out the current trends another ten years…
“You will be carrying with you, on a 24x7 basis, a very powerful, always connected, functions & sensor-rich device with enhanced visual experience… called the Smartphones. And the cool thing is, so will everyone else. So what are you going to do with it that you aren't doing now?
Before we consider the possibilities, let’s first address the ubiquity of the mobile devices and extrapolate the current trends towards the mobile phones of the future for everyone on this planet. In other words, the mobile phones of to-day will pave the path to ubiquity for Smartphones of tomorrow… and that tomorrow may be here as early as the next 10 years. And what’s good for smartphones of tomorrow is indeed good for pico projectors as an accessory or as an embedded unit.
Consider this…
• There are currently about 3.2 billion mobile subscribers in the world, and that number is expected to grow by at least a billion in the next few years.
• Today, mobile phones are more prevalent than cars (about 800 million registered vehicles in the world) and credit cards (only 1.4 billion of those).
• While it took 100 years for landline phones to spread to more than 80% of the countries in the world, their wireless descendants did it in only 16 years.
• Fewer teens are wearing watches now because they use their phones to tell time instead. So it's safe to say that the mobile phone may be the most productive and ubiquitous consumer product ever invented.
However, have you ever considered just exactly how powerful these ubiquitous devices are and if the current trends were to be extrapolated… what future mobile device will look like? Whatever the name [or logo] on the cover, under the hood these mobile phones of the future will be the smartphones that will be very smart [pun intended] and very powerful. Smartphones like “Blackberry” considered a business tool are now successfully targeting consumers. On the other hand, “iPhone” considered a consumer product is now targeting business customers. Some day, they may converge and pretty much offer the same power, functionality, connectivity, long battery life and ease of use etc.
As more and more consumers switch to smartphones globally, the Blackberry and iPhone are picking up market share at the expense of foreign competitors such as Nokia.
However, the good news is that the overall smartphones market is growing faster than ever. In 2008, a total of 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold worldwide, according to IDC, of which some 160 million were smartphones, or 13%. In 2013, IDC predicts that 20% of the 1.4 billion mobile phones sold will be smartphones, or 280 million.
Currently, we know what smartphones like Blackberry and iPhone offer. What we don’t know and, therefore, we can only speculate what additional functionality and features the future smartphones may offer. Here’s a list of what the future may hold in store for the consumers…
Smart alerts: Your mobile phone will be smart about your situation and alert you when something needs your attention. This is already happening today… eBay can text you when you've been outbid, and alert services (such as Google News) can deliver news, sports, or stock updates to you. In the future, these applications will get smarter, patiently monitoring your personalized preferences (which will be stored in the network cloud) and delivering only the information you desire. One very useful scenario: your phone knows that you are heading downtown for dinner, and alerts you of transit conditions or the best places to park.
Augmented reality: Your mobile phone uses its arsenal of sensors to understand your situation and provide you information that might be useful. A stylish looking app, for one example, may automatically track Zagat rated restaurants, giving users food and cost scores as they move in real time bringing new dining places into view as they appear on the map.
Or perhaps, do you really want to know how much is that red dress in the window? Your phone, with its GPS and compass, knows what you are looking at, so it can tell you before you even ask. Plus, it may even suggest what purse and accessories go with the red dress?
Crowd sourcing: Your mobile phone is your omnipresent window to the world, a way to publish pictures, emails, texts, Twitters, streaming videos and blog entries. When everyone else is doing the same, you have a world where people from every corner of the planet are covering their experiences in real-time. That massive amount of content gets archived, sorted, and re-deployed to other people in new and interesting ways. Ask the web for the most interesting sites in your vicinity, and your phone shows you reviews and pictures that people have uploaded of nearby attractions. Like what you see? It will send you directions on how to get there.
Sensors everywhere: Your mobile phone knows a lot about the world around you. If you take that intelligence and combine it in the cloud with that of every other phone, we have an incredible snapshot of what is going on in the world right now.
Tool for development: Your mobile phone may be more than just a convenience; it may be your livelihood. Already, this is true for people in many parts of the world: in southern India, fishermen use text messaging to find the best markets for their daily catch, in South Africa, sugar farmers can receive text messages advising them on how much to irrigate their crops, and throughout sub-Saharan Africa entrepreneurs with mobile phones become phone operators, bringing communications to their villages. These innovations will only increase in the future, as mobile phones become the linchpin for greater economic development.
The future-proof device: Your mobile phone will open up, as the Internet already has, so it will be easy for developers to create or improve applications and content. The ones that you care about get automatically installed on your phone. Let's say you have a piece of software on your phone to improve power management (and therefore battery life). Let's say a developer makes an improvement to the software. The update gets automatically installed on your phone, without you lifting a finger. Your phone actually gets better over time.
Safer software through trust and verification: Your mobile phone will provide tools and information to empower you to decide what to download, what to see, and what to share. Trust is the most important currency in the always connected world, and your phone will help you stay in control of your information. You may choose to share nothing at all (default mode), or just share certain things with certain people─ your circle of trusted friends and family. You'll make these decisions based on information you get from the service and software providers and the collective ratings of the community as well. Your phone is like your trusted valet: it knows a lot about you, and won't disclose an iota of it without your permission.
Enhanced Visual Experience: Not too long ago, a mobile phone offered only a one-to-one viewing experience with little room for personalization and lacking the cool factor. Soon Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will change the DNA of the phone, making it more visual, interactive and unique to the user. Taking this a step further, your cell phone will become a “one-to-many” tool, allowing us to share mobile content with groups of friends, family and colleagues. In the not-too-distant future, road warriors will be showing presentations to a room full of colleagues via a projector accessory [SHOWwx] for their mobile phones. We have only begun to unleash the mobile visual experience.
Part 4: Laser Based PicoP Projectors are Superior Technology Compared to the Rest
Microvision Will Change Your Visual Experience, Wirelessly…
With the increasing number and variety of visual applications on mobile phones, Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will deliver the mobile experience consumers have come to expect. Consumers will be able to use their mobile phones to capture and store high-quality content, including digital movies and console-quality video games, and then watch the content with others via a connection to mobile, palm-sized, full-featured SHOWwx PicoP projector, which are expected to be available in the 4th Qtr. of 2009.
Professional and amateur film makers can already use their mobile phones to show-off high-quality samples of their creations to producers using video clips taken on their handset. Soon, they [and you] will be able to share your video creation or the latest funny video from YouTube with a room full of people, in DVD quality (848 x 480) resolution, the same clarity you receive from your DVD player at home. Parents will be able to send DVD quality videos of their children learning how to ride a bike to family members, who may then show a room full of their friends.
In conjunction with third party technology for processing HD video and graphics content, Microvision’s PicoP projector will allow [in 2010] integration into a mobile phone, further enhancing display options in mobile devices. Microvision’s Pico projector is creating a new standard by extending beyond the limitations of the physical screen on mobile phones and allowing consumers to share content with friends and family.
From viewing video content on a 2-inch LCD screen on your mobile phone to being able to watch DVD-quality video in widescreen TV format projected on to the closest wall, the wireless experience will never be the same.
Quality of image, rich & vivid colors and always-in-focus feature is important when projecting from your Mobile devices. For comparison, look at the quality and size of the Microvision’s PicoP projection and compare it to the [static] images from the Optoma DLP Pico projector and the 3M LcoS Pico projector…
First, the link to the Optoma DLP Pico projector video…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMeQBF4LNws
Next, the link to 3M LcoS Pico projector video…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NNMHYgpGO4
Now look at Microvision laser PicoP projector SHOWwx video…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?m=200908
[Note: Make sure to click on the video play button]
Now tell me, if I need to write a thousand words to explain the difference between the three?
Microvision Will Change Your Visual Experience, Wirelessly!
Stay tuned for REASON #4… as we move forward in our journey to explore “Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
“The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized in the lifetime of the opportunity.”
…Leonard Ravenhill
So much for the energy savings benefit of laser based PicoP display engines. Now lets turn our heads to the next waves of change [or paradigm shift] coming upon us.
First, the commercial...
"Microvision stock [NASDAQ: MVIS] is an investment that represents the opportunity of a lifetime… in our lifetime. And it is a BIG opportunity that can propel us to our financial goals in one great leap within our active lifetime… like in the next 4 to 5 years."
Next, the REASON #3... to not let this opportunity pass you by and why you should quickly reposition your assets now…
REASON #3
We already know the ubiquitous nature of the Internet, the laptops and Mobile phones around the world. However, what we may not know that there is yet another mega change taking place right under our noses…
• Smartphones are rapidly replacing the classic mobile phones around the globe
“Worldwide mobile phone sales totalled 286.1 million units in the second quarter of 2009, a 6.1 per cent decrease from the second quarter of 2008, according to Gartner, Inc. Smartphone sales surpassed 40 million units, a 27 per cent increase from the same period last year, representing the fastest-growing segment of the mobile-devices market.”
Here’s the link to Gartner report…
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1126812
"Smartphone sales were strong during the second quarter of 2009, with sales of 40.9 million units in line with Gartner's forecast of 27 per cent year-on-year sales growth for 2009," said Ms Milanesi. "Given the higher margins, smartphones offer the biggest opportunity for manufacturers. It is the fastest-growing market segment and the most resistant to declining ASPs."
Smartphones are feature rich mobile devices that consist of a mini-laptop with built-in mobile phone and connected to a service provider [carrier] via a broadband mobile network like the 3G… or the future 4G. Smartphones are feature rich mobile phones and one of the key features that have plans to be offered in the high-end smartphones is a pico projector… as an accessory unit initially… followed by the embedded version in 2010. Future smartphones are expected to include, or offered as an option, a pico projector as a standard unit just like the digital camera is today.
• Pico projectors are being developed as an embedded feature in all things digital
The next popular categories that integrate pico projectors would be mobile computing [laptops] and communication [cell phones, Smartphones] devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as personal media players [iPod], digital cameras, digital camcorders and Integrated Mobile TV/projectors.
Why pico projectors are such a rage all of a sudden… you may ask?
That’s a fair question and can be answered in four parts…
Part 1: Pico Projectors can add Big Screen Experience to Small Devices
Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat: “As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded pico projectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal.
Part 2: Rapidly Evolving Illumination Technologies like LEDs and Green Lasers Make Pico Projectors Possible
In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that Pico projectors will become part and parcel of relatively low cost cell phones, media players and other digital consumer electronic devices.
“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making Pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.
Part 3: Powerful & Always Connected Functions Rich Devices with Enhanced Visual Experience
Today, the mobile devices are ubiquitous and if you were to project out the current trends another ten years…
“You will be carrying with you, on a 24x7 basis, a very powerful, always connected, functions & sensor-rich device with enhanced visual experience… called the Smartphones. And the cool thing is, so will everyone else. So what are you going to do with it that you aren't doing now?
Before we consider the possibilities, let’s first address the ubiquity of the mobile devices and extrapolate the current trends towards the mobile phones of the future for everyone on this planet. In other words, the mobile phones of to-day will pave the path to ubiquity for Smartphones of tomorrow… and that tomorrow may be here as early as the next 10 years. And what’s good for smartphones of tomorrow is indeed good for pico projectors as an accessory or as an embedded unit.
Consider this…
• There are currently about 3.2 billion mobile subscribers in the world, and that number is expected to grow by at least a billion in the next few years.
• Today, mobile phones are more prevalent than cars (about 800 million registered vehicles in the world) and credit cards (only 1.4 billion of those).
• While it took 100 years for landline phones to spread to more than 80% of the countries in the world, their wireless descendants did it in only 16 years.
• Fewer teens are wearing watches now because they use their phones to tell time instead. So it's safe to say that the mobile phone may be the most productive and ubiquitous consumer product ever invented.
However, have you ever considered just exactly how powerful these ubiquitous devices are and if the current trends were to be extrapolated… what future mobile device will look like? Whatever the name [or logo] on the cover, under the hood these mobile phones of the future will be the smartphones that will be very smart [pun intended] and very powerful. Smartphones like “Blackberry” considered a business tool are now successfully targeting consumers. On the other hand, “iPhone” considered a consumer product is now targeting business customers. Some day, they may converge and pretty much offer the same power, functionality, connectivity, long battery life and ease of use etc.
As more and more consumers switch to smartphones globally, the Blackberry and iPhone are picking up market share at the expense of foreign competitors such as Nokia.
However, the good news is that the overall smartphones market is growing faster than ever. In 2008, a total of 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold worldwide, according to IDC, of which some 160 million were smartphones, or 13%. In 2013, IDC predicts that 20% of the 1.4 billion mobile phones sold will be smartphones, or 280 million.
Currently, we know what smartphones like Blackberry and iPhone offer. What we don’t know and, therefore, we can only speculate what additional functionality and features the future smartphones may offer. Here’s a list of what the future may hold in store for the consumers…
Smart alerts: Your mobile phone will be smart about your situation and alert you when something needs your attention. This is already happening today… eBay can text you when you've been outbid, and alert services (such as Google News) can deliver news, sports, or stock updates to you. In the future, these applications will get smarter, patiently monitoring your personalized preferences (which will be stored in the network cloud) and delivering only the information you desire. One very useful scenario: your phone knows that you are heading downtown for dinner, and alerts you of transit conditions or the best places to park.
Augmented reality: Your mobile phone uses its arsenal of sensors to understand your situation and provide you information that might be useful. A stylish looking app, for one example, may automatically track Zagat rated restaurants, giving users food and cost scores as they move in real time bringing new dining places into view as they appear on the map.
Or perhaps, do you really want to know how much is that red dress in the window? Your phone, with its GPS and compass, knows what you are looking at, so it can tell you before you even ask. Plus, it may even suggest what purse and accessories go with the red dress?
Crowd sourcing: Your mobile phone is your omnipresent window to the world, a way to publish pictures, emails, texts, Twitters, streaming videos and blog entries. When everyone else is doing the same, you have a world where people from every corner of the planet are covering their experiences in real-time. That massive amount of content gets archived, sorted, and re-deployed to other people in new and interesting ways. Ask the web for the most interesting sites in your vicinity, and your phone shows you reviews and pictures that people have uploaded of nearby attractions. Like what you see? It will send you directions on how to get there.
Sensors everywhere: Your mobile phone knows a lot about the world around you. If you take that intelligence and combine it in the cloud with that of every other phone, we have an incredible snapshot of what is going on in the world right now.
Tool for development: Your mobile phone may be more than just a convenience; it may be your livelihood. Already, this is true for people in many parts of the world: in southern India, fishermen use text messaging to find the best markets for their daily catch, in South Africa, sugar farmers can receive text messages advising them on how much to irrigate their crops, and throughout sub-Saharan Africa entrepreneurs with mobile phones become phone operators, bringing communications to their villages. These innovations will only increase in the future, as mobile phones become the linchpin for greater economic development.
The future-proof device: Your mobile phone will open up, as the Internet already has, so it will be easy for developers to create or improve applications and content. The ones that you care about get automatically installed on your phone. Let's say you have a piece of software on your phone to improve power management (and therefore battery life). Let's say a developer makes an improvement to the software. The update gets automatically installed on your phone, without you lifting a finger. Your phone actually gets better over time.
Safer software through trust and verification: Your mobile phone will provide tools and information to empower you to decide what to download, what to see, and what to share. Trust is the most important currency in the always connected world, and your phone will help you stay in control of your information. You may choose to share nothing at all (default mode), or just share certain things with certain people─ your circle of trusted friends and family. You'll make these decisions based on information you get from the service and software providers and the collective ratings of the community as well. Your phone is like your trusted valet: it knows a lot about you, and won't disclose an iota of it without your permission.
Enhanced Visual Experience: Not too long ago, a mobile phone offered only a one-to-one viewing experience with little room for personalization and lacking the cool factor. Soon Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will change the DNA of the phone, making it more visual, interactive and unique to the user. Taking this a step further, your cell phone will become a “one-to-many” tool, allowing us to share mobile content with groups of friends, family and colleagues. In the not-too-distant future, road warriors will be showing presentations to a room full of colleagues via a projector accessory [SHOWwx] for their mobile phones. We have only begun to unleash the mobile visual experience.
Part 4: Laser Based PicoP Projectors are Superior Technology Compared to the Rest
Microvision Will Change Your Visual Experience, Wirelessly…
With the increasing number and variety of visual applications on mobile phones, Microvision’s PicoP display engine technology will deliver the mobile experience consumers have come to expect. Consumers will be able to use their mobile phones to capture and store high-quality content, including digital movies and console-quality video games, and then watch the content with others via a connection to mobile, palm-sized, full-featured SHOWwx PicoP projector, which are expected to be available in the 4th Qtr. of 2009.
Professional and amateur film makers can already use their mobile phones to show-off high-quality samples of their creations to producers using video clips taken on their handset. Soon, they [and you] will be able to share your video creation or the latest funny video from YouTube with a room full of people, in DVD quality (848 x 480) resolution, the same clarity you receive from your DVD player at home. Parents will be able to send DVD quality videos of their children learning how to ride a bike to family members, who may then show a room full of their friends.
In conjunction with third party technology for processing HD video and graphics content, Microvision’s PicoP projector will allow [in 2010] integration into a mobile phone, further enhancing display options in mobile devices. Microvision’s Pico projector is creating a new standard by extending beyond the limitations of the physical screen on mobile phones and allowing consumers to share content with friends and family.
From viewing video content on a 2-inch LCD screen on your mobile phone to being able to watch DVD-quality video in widescreen TV format projected on to the closest wall, the wireless experience will never be the same.
Quality of image, rich & vivid colors and always-in-focus feature is important when projecting from your Mobile devices. For comparison, look at the quality and size of the Microvision’s PicoP projection and compare it to the [static] images from the Optoma DLP Pico projector and the 3M LcoS Pico projector…
First, the link to the Optoma DLP Pico projector video…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMeQBF4LNws
Next, the link to 3M LcoS Pico projector video…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NNMHYgpGO4
Now look at Microvision laser PicoP projector SHOWwx video…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?m=200908
[Note: Make sure to click on the video play button]
Now tell me, if I need to write a thousand words to explain the difference between the three?
Microvision Will Change Your Visual Experience, Wirelessly!
Stay tuned for REASON #4… as we move forward in our journey to explore “Microvision: Opportunity of a Lifetime… in our Lifetime”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Microvision: Protect Your Intellectual Property Part 3
I hope you read part 1 and part 2 on the subject of “Microvision: Protect Your Intellectual Property”. If not, here’s the link to those two posts…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009_09_01_archive.html
Part 3 is all about communicating the observations that some folks [besides me] have made over the last few months and most recently at the Annual Stockholders Meeting [ASM] on September 15th.
Microvision Wants to be Major Player in the Imaging Market Place:
“Laser steering projector is the bread and butter of Microvision for the foreseeable future and we are going to focus on the embedded PicoP to make the company profitable.” … Believed to be the words of Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, at the Annual Shareholders Meeting!
“Microvision is positioning itself thru patents and IP to be a major player in the image community. He (Alex) said: “Microvision is not going to be a small component provider that can be marginalized by bigger players.”
Alex sees Microvision as an INTEL type company. He is going to make the company a major player in the image industry. That may very well explain the “Image by PicoP” as the slogan chosen for the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx. Please read my post on…
Yes Virginia: “It’s Intel Inside… but Image by PicoP.”
Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/yes-virginia-its-intel-inside-but-image.html
In my humble opinion, Alex Tokman is set on a course to turn Microvision not only like an Intel… but also Qualcomm at the same time.
Here’s why…
First, the observations we have made over the last few months…
“The slides on patents and IP at the ASM were probably the most interesting of all the slides in the presentation. We have seen earlier versions of these back in May 2009. These slides showed a marked increase in patent filings by the company after Alex Tokman took over as CEO. However, now there also seems to be a renewed and significant emphasis on bigger picture kinds of claims regarding things like applications. Most all of the early patents were about hardware and how you make the hardware work... and it is those patents that got Microvision on the IEEE Spectrum and Wall Street Journal [The Patent Board] list.”
So, why this emphasis on “bigger picture” kinds of claims including things like “applications”?
I think the answer lies in the CEO’s head and from time to time is reflected in his actions and statements. I won’t be surprised to see more patents coming out of Microvision that also cover services and applications… besides the PicoP display engine hardware. It is possible that in the future, Microvision business model may resemble, in some ways, that of Qualcomm. Qualcomm business model consists of “chip sales” along with the sale of “Intellectual Property Rights” for innovative Applications and Services to the wireless companies.
I have known about Alex Tokman for many years before he came to Microvision. However, the news about Alexander Tokman coming on board as the new President and COO of Microvision caught my attention, and subsequent interest in Microvision, as I have known of him from his days at GE. What Tokman did at GE was quite remarkable.
“Alexander Tokman joined Microvision in July 2005 as a President and COO. Tokman was responsible for managing Microvision’s operations, including sales, marketing, research and development, and supply chain. He was named President and CEO in January 2006. Tokman, a 10+ year GE executive, joined Microvision from GE Healthcare, where most recently he served as General Manager of Global Molecular Imaging & Radiopharmacy—a self-contained, global multi-technology business unit. Over the past five years at GE Tokman defined, developed, and successfully commercialized several new technology businesses including PET/CT, which added $500M+ of organic top line growth to the company within the first three years of its commercial introduction.”
Having said that, and knowing what little I know about Alex Tokman, I can confidently say that he has the vision to see the huge potential Microvision’s PicoP display engine [laser-scanning 1 MEMS] technology offers as the leader of the pack.
That’s right, leader of the pack!!!
Here’s why…
“…in view of the limitations and image quality issues associated with current Pico display technologies being offered or being pursued by others.”
TI is stuck with DLP technology, 3M is pushing Color Filter LcoS technology, Syndiant is working with light panels on LcoS technology, Expaly is working with laser based LcoS technology, Micron Displaytech is working with FLCOS technology, bTendo [2006 start-up] is working with laser-scanning 2MEMS technology , and Maradin [2007 start-up] is working with laser-scanning 1 MEMS technology.
The only two Pico display technologies on the market to-day are: DLP by TI and LcoS by 3M… the rest of the rat pack are still “working” on their R&D. While there are some interim Pico projectors based on technology such as color filter LCOS [ 3M technology] and DLP [TI technology] that were in a position to get to market earlier… but they have major drawbacks in fulfilling the size, power, image quality, resolution and always in focus requirements of the market, particularly for embedded devices. We are already seeing color filter LcoS products being designed out in favor of field sequential LcoS and many former “DLP-only design houses” also have field sequential LcoS designs underway.
Syndiant [2004 start-up] talks “big game”, at their website, about light modulating panels that use Field Sequential LcoS [FSLCOS] to provide a very high resolution display that will be always be in focus when RGB lasers are used as the light source. Currently, however, they use, so they claim, LEDs as the light source. It is interesting to note that Syndiant Pico projectors are not on sale yet and we haven’t seen any of their projector demos at any of the trade shows thus far.
"In summary, if we are to believe everything that we read at Syndiant’s website, then all the competition, including Microvision, should pack-it-in… because Syndiant’s technology is so much superior and costs so much cheaper."
However, before we recommend that competition to Syndiant, including Microvision, should pack-it-in and move-on to some other un-charted technology frontier… we should look at the Intellectual Property of Syndiant that they should have, really, to protect such a valuable technology. Our patent search found the following…
• Syndiant: No Patents found
However, Syndiant claims, at their website, to have four (4) patents. In reality, it seems they may have only one patent issued in four different countries... the United States, United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Australia.
“Syndiant has achieved four patents in the United States, United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Australia relating to the digital backplane and various methods, systems and devices for controlling a digital backplane, light modulating elements and spatial light modulators. Syndiant has a number of other patents pending.”
Here’s the link…
http://www.syndiant.com/tech_faqs.html
• Microvision (1 MEMS): 557 Patents (among those are a massive amount of World Patents and European Patents). Patent search shows 557 patents [World Patents] for Microvision. That number is rather too high… may be due to other “Microvision” named companies that got wrapped-in the search. The latest number of issued patents is like 115 plus many more on file.
• Maradin (1 MEMS): 2 Patents (World Patents included)
• bTendo (2 MEMS): 2 Patents (World Patents included)
• Micron Displaytech (FLCOS): 144 Patents (World Patents included)
• Explay (LCOS): 29 Patents (World Patents included)
• 3M (LCOS): Very large number among hundreds of Patents
• Texas Instruments (DLP): Very large number among hundreds of Patents
• Light Blue Optics (Holographic Laser Projection): 59 Patents (World Patents included). They're using Micron/Displaytech FLCOS technology.
Now you be the judge! All that wonderfull Syndiant technology with everything "superior" and basically "no" patents?
In any case, Pico projector for mobile devices will be a huge market. All Microvision needs, to become a huge financial success is a small percentage of the overall market adoption rate. In my humble opinion, Alex Tokman is set on a course to turn Microvision not like an Intel… but also Qualcomm at the same time.
Here’s another reason why…
Microvision has been at it for over 14 years and has spent close to $250 million dollars to-date on Research and Development of its single MEMS laser-scanning PicoP technology in one form or the other. Along the way, I am sure, it has explored the dual MEMS and multitude of different combinations that come to mind. Some of these alternative technologies, I’m sure deserved ample lab time before being put on the back-burner… while others were explored and discarded without even making it to the lab.
Alex Tokman mentioned a few things as to why he believes that Microvision’s PicoP display engine is going to be successful…
• Uniqueness: nobody has lasers… nobody is doing what we are doing.
• Thin Form Factor: nobody has our size and nobody can do HD images without getting bigger.
• Longer Battery life: up to 2 hours currently vs. 45 minutes for the competition.
• Infinite focus: nobody else has it.
• Larger screen experience: from 12” to 150” diagonal under certain ambient light conditions.
• Superior small font readability: we are the only one that has 8 pt readable fonts.
• Uniformity of brightness: Images are uniformly bright from edge to edge, unlike some other competitors.
• No rainbow effect and virtually no speckle.
• Twice the color gamut (range) of NTSC
• WVGA resolution with sharper image detail and fast refresh rate
Corning and Osram [the two supply chain partners] are not only improving the laser light technology, but performance and price as well. The next generation of Green Laser [Corning GL-2000] and Microvision PicoP display engine will bear this out.
“With the enormous size of the future Pico projector market [in terms of units & dollars] the financial rewards will certainly attract deep pocketed competitors that will infringe [and engage in unscrupulous deeds] to test your resolve, create distraction, put financial burden of litigation… all in the hopes of extracting a cheap, if not free, licensing agreement from Microvision.”
With that in mind, the questions to ask are…
• How well Microvision is prepared and how it plans to fend-off infringement to its Intellectual Property in the future… for the sake of its future?
• How serious Microvision is in not only selling PicoP display engines and associated components… but also selling “Intellectual Property Rights” to innovative Applications and Services built around their PicoP display technology?
• How strongly Microvision CEO believes in his own statement about [not] getting marginalized by bigger OEM players that it may some day call customers… like Apple, Motorola, Sony, Nokia and so on.
The availability and quality of green lasers will be crucial not only to the viability of Microvision’s PicoP display technology… but also to its financial success as a growth company. The most recent news about green lasers only reinforces my belief that Microvision will be a huge financial success…
Japan's QD Laser has developed a compact green laser that could energize the market for high-definition micro projectors.
Martyn Williams, IDG News Service
Saturday, October 10, 2009 06:00 PM PDT
Here’s the link to the news article…
http://www.pcworld.com/article/173455/green_laser_developed_for_microprojectors.html
What’s so significant about this news is…
“QD Laser is planning mass production next year and the laser should cost around US$10, said Mitsuru Sugawara, the company's president and CEO, during an interview at Ceatec. That will make it significantly cheaper than the only other competitor on the market, a micro green laser from Corning, according to Sugawara.”
Famous Paul Masson once said: “We will sell no wine before its time.”
This slogan applies very well to Microvision’s lauch of the world’s first laser PicoP projector SHOWwx on September 15th, 2009.
And the good thing is: “It only gets better with time.”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009_09_01_archive.html
Part 3 is all about communicating the observations that some folks [besides me] have made over the last few months and most recently at the Annual Stockholders Meeting [ASM] on September 15th.
Microvision Wants to be Major Player in the Imaging Market Place:
“Laser steering projector is the bread and butter of Microvision for the foreseeable future and we are going to focus on the embedded PicoP to make the company profitable.” … Believed to be the words of Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, at the Annual Shareholders Meeting!
“Microvision is positioning itself thru patents and IP to be a major player in the image community. He (Alex) said: “Microvision is not going to be a small component provider that can be marginalized by bigger players.”
Alex sees Microvision as an INTEL type company. He is going to make the company a major player in the image industry. That may very well explain the “Image by PicoP” as the slogan chosen for the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx. Please read my post on…
Yes Virginia: “It’s Intel Inside… but Image by PicoP.”
Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/yes-virginia-its-intel-inside-but-image.html
In my humble opinion, Alex Tokman is set on a course to turn Microvision not only like an Intel… but also Qualcomm at the same time.
Here’s why…
First, the observations we have made over the last few months…
“The slides on patents and IP at the ASM were probably the most interesting of all the slides in the presentation. We have seen earlier versions of these back in May 2009. These slides showed a marked increase in patent filings by the company after Alex Tokman took over as CEO. However, now there also seems to be a renewed and significant emphasis on bigger picture kinds of claims regarding things like applications. Most all of the early patents were about hardware and how you make the hardware work... and it is those patents that got Microvision on the IEEE Spectrum and Wall Street Journal [The Patent Board] list.”
So, why this emphasis on “bigger picture” kinds of claims including things like “applications”?
I think the answer lies in the CEO’s head and from time to time is reflected in his actions and statements. I won’t be surprised to see more patents coming out of Microvision that also cover services and applications… besides the PicoP display engine hardware. It is possible that in the future, Microvision business model may resemble, in some ways, that of Qualcomm. Qualcomm business model consists of “chip sales” along with the sale of “Intellectual Property Rights” for innovative Applications and Services to the wireless companies.
• Alex Tokman sees Microvision as an Intel type companyEventually, in my opinion, Microvision may not only be selling PicoP display engines and associated components… but also selling “Intellectual Property Rights” to innovative Applications and Services built around their PicoP display technology. That’s one sure way of [not] getting marginalized by bigger OEM players that it may some day call customers… like Apple, Motorola, Sony, Nokia and so on.
• We will [not] get marginalized by bigger OEM players that we may some day call customers
• Choice of marketing slogan like: “Image by PicoP”
• Bigger picture claims that include “applications” of PicoP in their hardware type patent applications
• Early development of PicoP Evaluation Kit [PEK]
• Aggressive marketing [and sales] of PEK for a broader applications Value Added Resellers.
I have known about Alex Tokman for many years before he came to Microvision. However, the news about Alexander Tokman coming on board as the new President and COO of Microvision caught my attention, and subsequent interest in Microvision, as I have known of him from his days at GE. What Tokman did at GE was quite remarkable.
“Alexander Tokman joined Microvision in July 2005 as a President and COO. Tokman was responsible for managing Microvision’s operations, including sales, marketing, research and development, and supply chain. He was named President and CEO in January 2006. Tokman, a 10+ year GE executive, joined Microvision from GE Healthcare, where most recently he served as General Manager of Global Molecular Imaging & Radiopharmacy—a self-contained, global multi-technology business unit. Over the past five years at GE Tokman defined, developed, and successfully commercialized several new technology businesses including PET/CT, which added $500M+ of organic top line growth to the company within the first three years of its commercial introduction.”
Having said that, and knowing what little I know about Alex Tokman, I can confidently say that he has the vision to see the huge potential Microvision’s PicoP display engine [laser-scanning 1 MEMS] technology offers as the leader of the pack.
That’s right, leader of the pack!!!
Here’s why…
“…in view of the limitations and image quality issues associated with current Pico display technologies being offered or being pursued by others.”
TI is stuck with DLP technology, 3M is pushing Color Filter LcoS technology, Syndiant is working with light panels on LcoS technology, Expaly is working with laser based LcoS technology, Micron Displaytech is working with FLCOS technology, bTendo [2006 start-up] is working with laser-scanning 2MEMS technology , and Maradin [2007 start-up] is working with laser-scanning 1 MEMS technology.
The only two Pico display technologies on the market to-day are: DLP by TI and LcoS by 3M… the rest of the rat pack are still “working” on their R&D. While there are some interim Pico projectors based on technology such as color filter LCOS [ 3M technology] and DLP [TI technology] that were in a position to get to market earlier… but they have major drawbacks in fulfilling the size, power, image quality, resolution and always in focus requirements of the market, particularly for embedded devices. We are already seeing color filter LcoS products being designed out in favor of field sequential LcoS and many former “DLP-only design houses” also have field sequential LcoS designs underway.
Syndiant [2004 start-up] talks “big game”, at their website, about light modulating panels that use Field Sequential LcoS [FSLCOS] to provide a very high resolution display that will be always be in focus when RGB lasers are used as the light source. Currently, however, they use, so they claim, LEDs as the light source. It is interesting to note that Syndiant Pico projectors are not on sale yet and we haven’t seen any of their projector demos at any of the trade shows thus far.
"In summary, if we are to believe everything that we read at Syndiant’s website, then all the competition, including Microvision, should pack-it-in… because Syndiant’s technology is so much superior and costs so much cheaper."
However, before we recommend that competition to Syndiant, including Microvision, should pack-it-in and move-on to some other un-charted technology frontier… we should look at the Intellectual Property of Syndiant that they should have, really, to protect such a valuable technology. Our patent search found the following…
• Syndiant: No Patents found
However, Syndiant claims, at their website, to have four (4) patents. In reality, it seems they may have only one patent issued in four different countries... the United States, United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Australia.
“Syndiant has achieved four patents in the United States, United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Australia relating to the digital backplane and various methods, systems and devices for controlling a digital backplane, light modulating elements and spatial light modulators. Syndiant has a number of other patents pending.”
Here’s the link…
http://www.syndiant.com/tech_faqs.html
• Microvision (1 MEMS): 557 Patents (among those are a massive amount of World Patents and European Patents). Patent search shows 557 patents [World Patents] for Microvision. That number is rather too high… may be due to other “Microvision” named companies that got wrapped-in the search. The latest number of issued patents is like 115 plus many more on file.
• Maradin (1 MEMS): 2 Patents (World Patents included)
• bTendo (2 MEMS): 2 Patents (World Patents included)
• Micron Displaytech (FLCOS): 144 Patents (World Patents included)
• Explay (LCOS): 29 Patents (World Patents included)
• 3M (LCOS): Very large number among hundreds of Patents
• Texas Instruments (DLP): Very large number among hundreds of Patents
• Light Blue Optics (Holographic Laser Projection): 59 Patents (World Patents included). They're using Micron/Displaytech FLCOS technology.
Now you be the judge! All that wonderfull Syndiant technology with everything "superior" and basically "no" patents?
In any case, Pico projector for mobile devices will be a huge market. All Microvision needs, to become a huge financial success is a small percentage of the overall market adoption rate. In my humble opinion, Alex Tokman is set on a course to turn Microvision not like an Intel… but also Qualcomm at the same time.
Here’s another reason why…
Microvision has been at it for over 14 years and has spent close to $250 million dollars to-date on Research and Development of its single MEMS laser-scanning PicoP technology in one form or the other. Along the way, I am sure, it has explored the dual MEMS and multitude of different combinations that come to mind. Some of these alternative technologies, I’m sure deserved ample lab time before being put on the back-burner… while others were explored and discarded without even making it to the lab.
Alex Tokman mentioned a few things as to why he believes that Microvision’s PicoP display engine is going to be successful…
• Uniqueness: nobody has lasers… nobody is doing what we are doing.
• Thin Form Factor: nobody has our size and nobody can do HD images without getting bigger.
• Longer Battery life: up to 2 hours currently vs. 45 minutes for the competition.
• Infinite focus: nobody else has it.
• Larger screen experience: from 12” to 150” diagonal under certain ambient light conditions.
• Superior small font readability: we are the only one that has 8 pt readable fonts.
• Uniformity of brightness: Images are uniformly bright from edge to edge, unlike some other competitors.
• No rainbow effect and virtually no speckle.
• Twice the color gamut (range) of NTSC
• WVGA resolution with sharper image detail and fast refresh rate
Corning and Osram [the two supply chain partners] are not only improving the laser light technology, but performance and price as well. The next generation of Green Laser [Corning GL-2000] and Microvision PicoP display engine will bear this out.
“With the enormous size of the future Pico projector market [in terms of units & dollars] the financial rewards will certainly attract deep pocketed competitors that will infringe [and engage in unscrupulous deeds] to test your resolve, create distraction, put financial burden of litigation… all in the hopes of extracting a cheap, if not free, licensing agreement from Microvision.”
With that in mind, the questions to ask are…
• How well Microvision is prepared and how it plans to fend-off infringement to its Intellectual Property in the future… for the sake of its future?
• How serious Microvision is in not only selling PicoP display engines and associated components… but also selling “Intellectual Property Rights” to innovative Applications and Services built around their PicoP display technology?
• How strongly Microvision CEO believes in his own statement about [not] getting marginalized by bigger OEM players that it may some day call customers… like Apple, Motorola, Sony, Nokia and so on.
The availability and quality of green lasers will be crucial not only to the viability of Microvision’s PicoP display technology… but also to its financial success as a growth company. The most recent news about green lasers only reinforces my belief that Microvision will be a huge financial success…
Japan's QD Laser has developed a compact green laser that could energize the market for high-definition micro projectors.
Martyn Williams, IDG News Service
Saturday, October 10, 2009 06:00 PM PDT
Here’s the link to the news article…
http://www.pcworld.com/article/173455/green_laser_developed_for_microprojectors.html
What’s so significant about this news is…
“QD Laser is planning mass production next year and the laser should cost around US$10, said Mitsuru Sugawara, the company's president and CEO, during an interview at Ceatec. That will make it significantly cheaper than the only other competitor on the market, a micro green laser from Corning, according to Sugawara.”
Famous Paul Masson once said: “We will sell no wine before its time.”
This slogan applies very well to Microvision’s lauch of the world’s first laser PicoP projector SHOWwx on September 15th, 2009.
And the good thing is: “It only gets better with time.”
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Thursday, September 24, 2009
PicoP Projectors and Nano Scanners Could Revolutionize the Early Detection and Surgery in the Medical Field
Now that Microvision has commercially launched the world's first laser PicoP projector and its supply chain partners, Corning and Osram, have officially made their commitment to commercialize the Green Laser for Pico projector applications...
"Pico projectors and nano scanners could revolutionize the early detection and surgery in the medical field."
In today's marketplace, endoscopes are increasingly involved in performing some of the most common surgical procedures as well as diagnosing cancer and other conditions. They're also a critical component of minimally invasive (MIVS) visualization systems.
The Key Markets:
The immediate target opportunities for Microvision are…
The market for flexible endoscopes is estimated at $1.2 billion a year. It is dominated by Japanese camera companies, specifically Pentax, Olympus and Fujinon.
Microvision could partner with Pentax to introduce its miniaturized confocal microscope to this market. Pentax has an extensive sales force and service infrastructure throughout Europe, Japan, USA and South East Asia. It seeks to increase its market share by gaining competitive advantage through new and exclusive technology, providing a natural alignment of goals and strategy with Microvision.
Rigid Endoscope Market…
The global rigid endoscope market is estimated to be $1 billion a year. The market is more fragmented than that for flexible endoscopes. Some of the more significant participants include leading microscope companies such as Carl Storz, Leica, Richard Wolf, Stryker, Zeiss and Olympus.
Microvision should look to establish one or more partnerships to identify the likely initial applications. This could be followed by development of clinical pilot investigations and the design of the business models that will capitalize on the market position of those partners.
Research Confocal Market…
The global market for research confocal microscopes is believed to be worth $375 million a year.
The utility provided by Microvision’s miniaturized, high resolution, scanner has the potential to expand the scientific fields that can be effectively researched with confocal microscopes. New in vivo research applications can increase demand from this significant and established market. It also has the advantage of easier entry as there is a lower regulatory threshold.
I think Microvision has full-filled on the original feasibility contract with Johnson & Johnson's Ethicon Endo-Surgery Unit. This feasibility agreement was to target Medical Visualization Applications. Now it is up to Ethicon Johnson to take it further. GE imaging may also be involved in some way or form.
This is from Microvision Year 2006 10K [annual report]…
“Working with a development partner, we have also created prototype versions of a high resolution, miniature laser camera for certain medical applications. Under the agreement, we developed prototype units that are being used in product evaluation. We have delivered the prototype units and our development partner is evaluating the units to determine a commercialization plan.”
“In 2006, 51% of revenue was derived from performance on development contracts with the United States government, 24% from performance on development contracts with commercial customers and the remainder from sales of Nomad and Flic units.”
"In 2005, 35% of revenue was derived from performance on development contracts with the United States government, 42% from performance on development contracts with commercial customers and the remainder from sales of Nomad and Flic units.”
“In 2005, Ethicon Endo-Surgery Inc. accounted for 33% of total revenue.”
Here’s the link…
http://microvision.blogspot.com/2007/03/mvis-10-k-annual-report-for-2006.html
Microvision could rock the early detection and surgery markets in the medical field [with its HD PicoP projector and nano scanner technology] in the next 3 to 5 years.
Anant Goel
"Pico projectors and nano scanners could revolutionize the early detection and surgery in the medical field."
In today's marketplace, endoscopes are increasingly involved in performing some of the most common surgical procedures as well as diagnosing cancer and other conditions. They're also a critical component of minimally invasive (MIVS) visualization systems.
The Key Markets:
The immediate target opportunities for Microvision are…
• Flexible endoscopesFlexible Endoscope Market…
• Rigid endoscopes
• Research confocal microscopes
The market for flexible endoscopes is estimated at $1.2 billion a year. It is dominated by Japanese camera companies, specifically Pentax, Olympus and Fujinon.
Microvision could partner with Pentax to introduce its miniaturized confocal microscope to this market. Pentax has an extensive sales force and service infrastructure throughout Europe, Japan, USA and South East Asia. It seeks to increase its market share by gaining competitive advantage through new and exclusive technology, providing a natural alignment of goals and strategy with Microvision.
Rigid Endoscope Market…
The global rigid endoscope market is estimated to be $1 billion a year. The market is more fragmented than that for flexible endoscopes. Some of the more significant participants include leading microscope companies such as Carl Storz, Leica, Richard Wolf, Stryker, Zeiss and Olympus.
Microvision should look to establish one or more partnerships to identify the likely initial applications. This could be followed by development of clinical pilot investigations and the design of the business models that will capitalize on the market position of those partners.
Research Confocal Market…
The global market for research confocal microscopes is believed to be worth $375 million a year.
The utility provided by Microvision’s miniaturized, high resolution, scanner has the potential to expand the scientific fields that can be effectively researched with confocal microscopes. New in vivo research applications can increase demand from this significant and established market. It also has the advantage of easier entry as there is a lower regulatory threshold.
I think Microvision has full-filled on the original feasibility contract with Johnson & Johnson's Ethicon Endo-Surgery Unit. This feasibility agreement was to target Medical Visualization Applications. Now it is up to Ethicon Johnson to take it further. GE imaging may also be involved in some way or form.
This is from Microvision Year 2006 10K [annual report]…
“Working with a development partner, we have also created prototype versions of a high resolution, miniature laser camera for certain medical applications. Under the agreement, we developed prototype units that are being used in product evaluation. We have delivered the prototype units and our development partner is evaluating the units to determine a commercialization plan.”
“In 2006, 51% of revenue was derived from performance on development contracts with the United States government, 24% from performance on development contracts with commercial customers and the remainder from sales of Nomad and Flic units.”
"In 2005, 35% of revenue was derived from performance on development contracts with the United States government, 42% from performance on development contracts with commercial customers and the remainder from sales of Nomad and Flic units.”
“In 2005, Ethicon Endo-Surgery Inc. accounted for 33% of total revenue.”
Here’s the link…
http://microvision.blogspot.com/2007/03/mvis-10-k-annual-report-for-2006.html
Microvision could rock the early detection and surgery markets in the medical field [with its HD PicoP projector and nano scanner technology] in the next 3 to 5 years.
Anant Goel
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