On several occasions, Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, has stated that he doesn’t want the company to be just a commodity supplier of IPMs [Integrated Photonic Modules] and PDEs [PicoP Display Engines] to global consumer electronic firms. He wants to position the company as an applications and value –add powerhouse with a broad array of high margin products.
Here’s my take on the future at Microvision…
There are three areas that I would like to focus on…
1. SHOWwx is just the beginning of things to come
2. Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” vs. “Commodity” Technology
3. More Purchase Order to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production.
SHOWwx Just the Beginning of Things to Come:
On March 24th, Microvision started selling its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx to the US market… selling them directly; from its on-line web store for a handsome profit. When you sell directly; your margins are always better because of the savings in middleman’s commission. By the next earnings conference call; we should find out for sure what sales revenues and profit margins are from sale of SHOWwx.
At the 2010 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Microvision CEO confirmed the receipt of purchase orders worth $16.7 million dollars for SHOWwx and the ultra miniature PDE… and that is the part that confirms my view that SHOWwx and the $16.7 million in purchase orders is the just the beginning of things to come.
http://www.slideshare.net/lautiffany/microvision-asm-2010-highlights
[Note: Please review slide 21]
Here’s why…
Potential markets for laser based PicoP Display Engine technology is not only huge… but it is also a high margin market opportunity.
If you were to consider the high-end Media Player market alone… the possibilities are enormous…
Low Power Front Projection Media Players for the Third World Countries:
Think about 2.5 billion people in India and China... as they represent the potential buyers of a low power front projection portable TV/Media Player that offers a large screen [60'' to 100''] high definition always in focus vivid and bright color viewing experience. Extremely low ENERGY consumption [like 10 watts or less] and portability is the key market demand factor here. Energy will become more and more scarce and expensive by leaps and bounds…whereas the portability allows for sharing of resources among friends and family.
Low Power Front Projection Media Player for the Master Bedroom:
Think about a billion bedrooms globally that could use a ceiling projector... for adding another dimension to the various ways of media consumption for information and entertainment. We have desired the bedroom viewing of television for ever, so it seems, and some of us may have installed televisions in the bedroom. However, now it is possible to add, by the millions, a low power media player with built-in PicoP projector in our bedrooms… that offers short throw ratio, wide screen, high definition, bright and vivid color, and always in focus viewing experience. Media player/projector runs on low power batteries... so no risk of electrocuting yourself. No significant heat... so you won't burn yourself. No heavy duty TV to install on the bedroom wall.
Low Power Portable Projection Media Player for Every Bedroom in the House:
All you need is one portable Media Player with built-in PicoP projector… that gets moved around from room to room when and where it’s needed. It certainly is a cheaper alternative than buying a TV for each room of the house. This portable Media Player can also be the one you pack with your bags… when you are on the go.
Market Size for Portable Media Players with built-in PicoP Projectors is huge… like in billions world-wide. The most recent orders for $16.7 million from the Consumer Electronic companies are just the beginning of what’s to come... and not the end.
Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” vs. “Commodity” Technology:
Some have questioned the laser PicoP as “core” [like CPUs from Intel] vs. “commodity” technology [like cell phone touch screen and cameras].
My take on the subject is as follows...
The IPMs and PDEs [the generic version] are an enabling technology and therefore a commodity... no question about that.
However, laser PicoP is a core technology and that's how it is being positioned by Microvision. Pico technology from TI or 3M will not create [or capture] as large a market as laser PicoP would... due to inherent image quality and differenciating functionality [like always-in-focus] that is only possible due to lasers being used as the light source.
Microvision laser PicoP technology will capture its fair share of the captive markets but it would go-on-further and create markets that are only possible because of laser PicoP. And that's not the commodity markets by any means. Microvision recognizes that right from the beginning; and therefore is positioning the PicoP Display Engines accordingly… by using the “Image by PicoP” insignia on every thing related to its technology.
There will be others with laser pico technology down the road... and that's why Microvision is churning out these patents by the hundreds… to protect its IP turf. Also, the "Image by PicoP" is part of this marketing strategy that positions Microvision PicoP technology as a "core" and not "commodity" right from day one. From what I have seen, and there is plenty of evidence for you to see as well, Microvision is charging a premium price for its PicoP technology. Just look at SHOWwx Commercial Edition currently for sale at $549.
I hope you can appreciate the difference... because it’s worth billions of dollars when it is executed with knowledge, passion, and gumption
Currently, there are several products in development at Microvision… and two of the most visible ones are…
Video and Console Gaming:
Microvision’s wireless 720p laser pico projector-based game controller prototype is being developed in collaboration with Intel. Over the last year, we have heard so much about the “PicoP First-Person Shooter Gaming Gun Prototype” that addresses the multi-billion dollar gaming market.
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1729
Laser Imaging and Laser Camera:
Microvision and Johnson & Johnson worked on this application for years… going back a few years ago.
Why has nothing ever come of this technology? J&J Ethicon has been working on an endoscope design for years with a number of patents that were awarded along the way. Nothing has ever come of this, I suppose, because they have been waiting on a RGB laser engine like the Microvision PDEs? And now that we have green lasers available, and the supply chain is ramping-up quickly, can we finally expect to see an endoscope or laser camera become reality?
Until recently, the Company was focused on bringing the SHOWwx to market and every thing else was on the back burner. Now that we have had a commercial launch of SHOWwx; and green laser technology and supply has improved, I see a renewed interest in the Laser Imaging and Laser Camera applications of Microvision IPM [photonic modules] and PDE [display engines]. Laser Imaging and Laser Camera is a multi-billion dollar market... and is a captive market for a cost effective innovative solution like what Microvision offers.
The following information is based on an article by a Microvision patent expert [Chris Wiklof, Director of patents from 2000-2006] that explains the Microvision’s Laser Camera concept. Richard Rutkowski, former CEO of Microvision, was a young hippie when this article was published, that's how old it is. There were two "camera" applications that he loved to talk about: confocal cameras and endoscopes, the latter got a lot of attention when Johnson & Johnson's Ethicon Endo division signed a contract with Microvision, back in 2005.
http://sis.windhover.com/buy/abstract.php?id=200520002&utm_source=company
Here’s the edited version of information on Microvision Laser Camera from the "past era of days gone by"…
Microvision has developed an innovative imaging platform that uses scanned beams of light and is in effect a versatile “laser camera.” Leveraging technology originally developed for its scanned-beam displays, like the laser projector SHOWwx, Microvision has developed a scanned-beam imaging [such as in laser endoscopes] design that meets demanding size constraints (5-mm total diameter) while also delivering good resolution (currently 720p HD). While recent developments have centered on biological and medical applications, the technology represents a unique and extensible imaging architecture that has applicability across a broad range of medical and non-medical markets, including barcode scanning, machine vision, microscopy, and scientific imaging.
In a conventional digital camera, a field of view is flood illuminated. A small portion of the illumination power impinges upon any particular spot. The rays that impinge upon the spot can be absorbed, transmitted, reflected, or scattered. A very small portion of the light scattered from the spot is imaged through a lens and aperture to a conjugate light-sensor element, where the photons are converted to electrons. To form an image, the process is repeated in parallel, with a small portion of light from each spot simultaneously imaged onto each of a typically large array of corresponding light sensors.
Compared to a conventional digital camera; a laser camera works in reverse. A laser beam illuminates a single spot while a large-numerical-aperture non-imaging detector receives the scattered light energy and converts it to an electrical signal. Because all the illumination energy falls on the particular spot of interest, there is no need to form a conjugate image plane and no need to exclude light from elsewhere in the field of view with a lens and aperture. To form an image, the process is repeated sequentially, moving the beam to illuminate the next spot and the scattered energy is again measured.
Comparing the two technologies, one can see that the direction of light propagation is reversed. Whereas the resolution-determining step in a conventional digital camera involves selectively receiving light energy from a spot, the resolution-determining step in a laser camera involves selectively illuminating a spot. The reversal of the rays does not affect the final image; for example, a spot that looks semitransparent and pinkish to a conventional digital camera looks semitransparent and pinkish to a laser camera.
Whereas conventional digital photography places a technology burden on the CCD or CMOS sensor array, laser photography requires a high-performance beam scanner. The beam scanner must be able to scan at high frequency to provide a high frame rate. Microvision currently uses proprietary single-crystal bulk-micro-machined silicon Micro Electro Mechanical System (MEMS) scanner technology developed for its scanned-beam pico projector.
Here’s the link to information on CCD and CMOS senor array used in digital cameras:
http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/cameras-photography/digital/question362.htm
Unique Attributes of Laser Camera:
A laser camera is intrinsically self-illuminating, which means that a laser camera cannot capture daylight images taken at long distances. Instead, a laser camera is a strong candidate to capture images at moderate to short distances, and especially high-magnification images. While daylight does not interfere with a laser camera’s operation─ the beam scan rate is so high that the processor simply ignores DC light levels and rejects noise from artificial illumination─ it also does not help it. The image captured by the laser camera is one produced by the laser camera’s scanned beam. Thus, a laser camera will not capture the appearance of speckled sunlight transmitted through leaves. Instead, the laser camera will capture the appearance of a leaf as viewed from the perspective of the light source.
Though not suitable for general-purpose, like ambient-light photography, a laser camera has many attributes that are valuable to a range of medical, commercial and scientific applications.
• No motion blur: Because the dwell time that the beam remains on any given spot is very short (about 20 ns); there is virtually no motion blur evident in any one pixel for most types of images. Thus, it is possible to capture fast moving objects without requiring complex and bulky strobe illumination. Movement in the image that occurs during the frame time will be expressed as a skewing of the image, an artifact that can be removed during image processing.
• Controlled specular reflection: Because the illumination source is a point, the amount of specular reflection [cause of glare] in the image can be reduced significantly. For example, with a ring illuminator typically used for close-up conventional photography; many subjects exhibit a white halo that washes out important details. With a laser camera, even though the detector occupies a relatively large area, glare is virtually nonexistent.
• Small and self-contained laser camera with illumination: Whereas a conventional sensor array must occupy an area large enough to fit its pixels, a laser camera only requires a small sensor area and a scanning mirror. A scanning laser endoscope [for example] capable of 720p resolution is only 5 mm in diameter. Furthermore, because a laser camera is self-illuminating, all the necessary components can be placed in a single package, thus requiring no field engineering to select, install, and adjust a light source. Such a small and self-contained package is useful for many medical, scientific, and industrial applications.
• Long range/large depth of field: Because there is virtually no light lost from the illumination beam, a laser camera has greater range than the illumination range of a conventional digital camera. Similarly, conventional systems using artificial illumination at long range are typically operated with a relatively large aperture to maximize light collection, resulting in reduced depth of field. Conversely, a laser camera detector does not image the returned light and there is no need for an aperture. The laser illumination beam of a laser camera can be substantially collimated across a wide range of applications such that focus stays constant with distance, resulting in significantly improved depth of field.
• Wavelength agility: If the passband of a conventional digital camera filter is narrowed, the amount of light reaching a detector is severely reduced, resulting in a low signal-to-noise ratio. Conversely, the laser illuminators typically used with a laser camera have a very narrow spectral width. This allows the system designer to select particular wavelengths with which to probe and image the field of view. Depending upon individual system architecture, it is possible to allow for a large number of imaging wavelengths, a property that lends the laser camera high specificity with respect to dye or pigment measurements. This may be especially useful in advanced medical and scientific techniques such as photodynamic therapy.
• Large color gamut: Because of the narrow spectral width of the illumination sources, a laser camera’s color sensitivity is placed closer to the perimeter of a C.I.E. chromaticity diagram than the wider band filters used by a conventional digital camera to separate colors. This results in a larger triangle (for an RGB, three-color system) within the color space, which results in the ability to capture greener greens, redder reds, and bluer blues… giving higher 200% NTSC rating to Microvision laser PDEs.
• Variable field of view: The laser camera’s field of view consists of the range of spots to which the scanner directs the illumination beam and is thus determined by the drive waveform delivered to the scanner. Thus, lossless electronic zoom and variable aspect ratio may be achieved by dynamic modification of the scanner drive.
• High magnification: A laser camera’s magnification can be quite high, depending upon beam shape. For example, the laser-beam waist can be made quite small and the scan angle reduced to produce a high-magnification image of a small field of view. By placing a beam splitter between the light-beam source and the scan mirror, and picking off a return image, the laser camera can be easily configured as a tiny confocal microscope and deliver magnification sufficient to resolve embedded objects a few hundred nanometers in diameter or map the surface profile of an integrated circuit.
Laser Camera ─ the New Frontier
The laser-camera technology offers many new performance capabilities and benefits by exploiting a fundamentally new architecture for capturing images. These capabilities, taken individually or in combination, are expected to open a new design frontier for imaging systems with requirements that cannot be cost-effectively met by conventional integrated matrix imagers… in this multi-billion dollar market.
Anant Goel
Friday, July 30, 2010
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Microvision: Employees Talk
When you work for a cutting edge technology company like Microvision, there are bound to be comments from employees that are good [called pros] and bad [called the cons].
I’ll skip the “pros” because they tend to be mostly glowing and biased… because if the employee still works there then it must be good; otherwise “what the heck are you doing there in the first place”.
However, when it comes to “cons”, they really tell a lot about the company and how it operates internally. One word of caution nonetheless when reading the “cons”… you have to extrapolate the negative because most of the time the employees talking to you are reluctant to say bluntly what’s on their mind for the sake of keeping the job they have at Microvision.
With that in mind, here are some Microvision employee comments…
Microvision Engineer in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
“Microvision - when you work here, you make a difference.”
4/28/2009
Cons:
As a small company, some resources are not available. Everyone, all the time, is stretching to get done what needs to be done. There is a fairly constant feeling of being overloaded.
Advice to Senior Management:
Try to cut back on the project list.
Microvision Engineer in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
“Working for Microvision”
7/19/2010
Cons:
Too much work, extra time not compensated. Poor communications among teams. Busy all year round, no taking it easy time. Lots of deadlines.
Advice to Senior Management:
More free time, less tightly bound schedules; more communication would really make Microvision a good place to work for everyday.
Microvision Not Telling As We Run So Thin A Job Title Would Give It Away. in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
6/17/2008
Cons:
Some of the downsides to working at Microvision is that Senior Management is not very good at communicating down to the regular employees. It's a bit embarrassing having a relative call me about a press release that I hadn't heard because we don't say anything internally. I think it was almost two months before they announced a huge sale of bar code scanners to the rest of the company. When all you are selling is one product at the moment those kinds of wins help pick people up!
One other big downside is that much of the company needs to switch their thinking from how they were before. I've never worked at a place that actually sold something that had so many barriers in place to finishing a sale, so many signatures are needed and physical pieces of paper need to go places, it's very inefficient. There are definite growing pains here as the company goes from an R & D house to a company that actually sells consumer products.
One final downside is that we are running very lean on people so often times you have to do things that are completely outside of your scope. While this is good at times, sometimes it feels like you get setup for failure.
Advice to Senior Management:
I would urge Senior Management to celebrate the wins when they happen. Also if there's news going out, even if it's "non news" let the rest of the company know so we don't look stupid when people ask us about it.
In conclusion, here’s the link just to make sure you don’t think I made-up this crap…
http://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Microvision-Reviews-E6316.htm
Advise to Microvision investors…
“Don’t get too comfortable… keep an eye open while taking the snooze”.
Anant Goel
I’ll skip the “pros” because they tend to be mostly glowing and biased… because if the employee still works there then it must be good; otherwise “what the heck are you doing there in the first place”.
However, when it comes to “cons”, they really tell a lot about the company and how it operates internally. One word of caution nonetheless when reading the “cons”… you have to extrapolate the negative because most of the time the employees talking to you are reluctant to say bluntly what’s on their mind for the sake of keeping the job they have at Microvision.
With that in mind, here are some Microvision employee comments…
Microvision Engineer in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
“Microvision - when you work here, you make a difference.”
4/28/2009
Cons:
As a small company, some resources are not available. Everyone, all the time, is stretching to get done what needs to be done. There is a fairly constant feeling of being overloaded.
Advice to Senior Management:
Try to cut back on the project list.
Microvision Engineer in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
“Working for Microvision”
7/19/2010
Cons:
Too much work, extra time not compensated. Poor communications among teams. Busy all year round, no taking it easy time. Lots of deadlines.
Advice to Senior Management:
More free time, less tightly bound schedules; more communication would really make Microvision a good place to work for everyday.
Microvision Not Telling As We Run So Thin A Job Title Would Give It Away. in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
6/17/2008
Cons:
Some of the downsides to working at Microvision is that Senior Management is not very good at communicating down to the regular employees. It's a bit embarrassing having a relative call me about a press release that I hadn't heard because we don't say anything internally. I think it was almost two months before they announced a huge sale of bar code scanners to the rest of the company. When all you are selling is one product at the moment those kinds of wins help pick people up!
One other big downside is that much of the company needs to switch their thinking from how they were before. I've never worked at a place that actually sold something that had so many barriers in place to finishing a sale, so many signatures are needed and physical pieces of paper need to go places, it's very inefficient. There are definite growing pains here as the company goes from an R & D house to a company that actually sells consumer products.
One final downside is that we are running very lean on people so often times you have to do things that are completely outside of your scope. While this is good at times, sometimes it feels like you get setup for failure.
Advice to Senior Management:
I would urge Senior Management to celebrate the wins when they happen. Also if there's news going out, even if it's "non news" let the rest of the company know so we don't look stupid when people ask us about it.
In conclusion, here’s the link just to make sure you don’t think I made-up this crap…
http://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Microvision-Reviews-E6316.htm
Advise to Microvision investors…
“Don’t get too comfortable… keep an eye open while taking the snooze”.
Anant Goel
Microvision: To Report 2nd Qtr Earnings on August 5th
Based on past history and unconfirmed reports, Microvision 2nd Qtr earning conference call is currently scheduled for August 5th.
Here’s the link to unconfirmed report on earnings conference call…
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/mvis_microvision-inc-mvis-corporate-event-announcement-notice-1051076.html
This 2nd Qtr earnings report, in my opinion, would be the most significant milestone in the history of Microvision because…
“… after 14 years of R&D, and having spent over $350 million dollars, the company will finally be in an enviable position to report revenues from product sales for an entire Qtr… and based on what’s reported, the entire financial future of this company─ and its stockholders, may take shape for the foreseeable future.”
The most important number to watch would be the “recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr”.
That’s correct, the “recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010”.
Granted, the backorders; profit margins; patents & awards; contracts & agreements; and future product introductions do count, but then again who knows for sure what the future would bring, and if the delivery would be made at profitable margins in the near term.
However, what do count, at this stage of commercial product introduction, are the actual sales of SHOWwx laser pico projector to consumers… indicating current demand to be over or below the current available green lasers, and the actual sales of PEKs/PDEs to OEMs… indicating future interest in the second generation embedded IPMs.
Having said that, let’s take a look at some projections for 2nd Qtr product revenues…
First of all, let me warn you that it is not easy to model product revenues for a company like Microvision because…
“For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade in March 2010, the Microvision management team is awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales.”
With that in mind, and taking all the plausible scenarios into consideration, I’m looking at $1,900,000 to $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010.
That’s the bottom line from my vantage point and I’ll spare you the details.
Now, here we go with the analysis…
• Anything less than $1,900,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of poor sales… that are not necessarily held back by green laser availability? Current events and management changes taking place at Microvision point more to this revenue number than anything higher.
• Anything more than $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of robust sales that leverage green laser availability to its fullest… and could have been better if more green lasers were available. The probability of this happening is low… but we can hope, can’t we?
These numbers are based on some complex modeling and are very subjective to one man’s opinion… in this case, it’s mine!
How the investors would react to this sort of news is anybody’s guess!
However, one thing is for sure…
Investors don’t like the lack of any significant news for extended periods of time and they react by selling [and short selling] the Microvision stock. Just in one week, a few weeks ago after the Annual Shareholders Meeting, the MVIS stock price dropped by 30% [down from $3.60 to $2.64]. This kind of price drop, it seems, has become a norm for Microvision stock after every Qtr earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meeting.
Lack of news; or any visible signs of product promotion, marketing, or sales does not build confidence in Microvision business model… and as a result, more and more investors [and supporters] abandon the MVIS stock every time there is carnage in its market price.
I don’t know if the Microvision corporate management realizes how important the MVIS investors are to the well being, survival, and future prosperity of their [our] company?
I didn’t think that I would ever say this; but after years of holding MVIS stock and taking my share of loses as the perpetual LONG.…
• Microvision stock has no backbone; and shows strength only when it receives attention from management lip service at times of needs for additional funding or before the quarterly earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meetings.
• MVIS stock has, time and again, proven that it is the Trader’s and professional Short’s trading panacea to making money while the Longs have been the perpetual losers.
To make the long story short, here’s what I would recommend to my friends, family, or anyone who chooses to preserve their investment capital rather than squander it on this perpetual dream machine…
“Buy low and sell high… and trade… trade… trade”
Anant Goel
Here’s the link to unconfirmed report on earnings conference call…
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/mvis_microvision-inc-mvis-corporate-event-announcement-notice-1051076.html
This 2nd Qtr earnings report, in my opinion, would be the most significant milestone in the history of Microvision because…
“… after 14 years of R&D, and having spent over $350 million dollars, the company will finally be in an enviable position to report revenues from product sales for an entire Qtr… and based on what’s reported, the entire financial future of this company─ and its stockholders, may take shape for the foreseeable future.”
The most important number to watch would be the “recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr”.
That’s correct, the “recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010”.
Granted, the backorders; profit margins; patents & awards; contracts & agreements; and future product introductions do count, but then again who knows for sure what the future would bring, and if the delivery would be made at profitable margins in the near term.
However, what do count, at this stage of commercial product introduction, are the actual sales of SHOWwx laser pico projector to consumers… indicating current demand to be over or below the current available green lasers, and the actual sales of PEKs/PDEs to OEMs… indicating future interest in the second generation embedded IPMs.
Having said that, let’s take a look at some projections for 2nd Qtr product revenues…
First of all, let me warn you that it is not easy to model product revenues for a company like Microvision because…
“For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade in March 2010, the Microvision management team is awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales.”
With that in mind, and taking all the plausible scenarios into consideration, I’m looking at $1,900,000 to $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010.
That’s the bottom line from my vantage point and I’ll spare you the details.
Now, here we go with the analysis…
• Anything less than $1,900,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of poor sales… that are not necessarily held back by green laser availability? Current events and management changes taking place at Microvision point more to this revenue number than anything higher.
• Anything more than $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of robust sales that leverage green laser availability to its fullest… and could have been better if more green lasers were available. The probability of this happening is low… but we can hope, can’t we?
These numbers are based on some complex modeling and are very subjective to one man’s opinion… in this case, it’s mine!
How the investors would react to this sort of news is anybody’s guess!
However, one thing is for sure…
Investors don’t like the lack of any significant news for extended periods of time and they react by selling [and short selling] the Microvision stock. Just in one week, a few weeks ago after the Annual Shareholders Meeting, the MVIS stock price dropped by 30% [down from $3.60 to $2.64]. This kind of price drop, it seems, has become a norm for Microvision stock after every Qtr earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meeting.
Lack of news; or any visible signs of product promotion, marketing, or sales does not build confidence in Microvision business model… and as a result, more and more investors [and supporters] abandon the MVIS stock every time there is carnage in its market price.
I don’t know if the Microvision corporate management realizes how important the MVIS investors are to the well being, survival, and future prosperity of their [our] company?
I didn’t think that I would ever say this; but after years of holding MVIS stock and taking my share of loses as the perpetual LONG.…
• Microvision stock has no backbone; and shows strength only when it receives attention from management lip service at times of needs for additional funding or before the quarterly earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meetings.
• MVIS stock has, time and again, proven that it is the Trader’s and professional Short’s trading panacea to making money while the Longs have been the perpetual losers.
To make the long story short, here’s what I would recommend to my friends, family, or anyone who chooses to preserve their investment capital rather than squander it on this perpetual dream machine…
“Buy low and sell high… and trade… trade… trade”
Anant Goel
Friday, July 2, 2010
Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman
For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade, your management team is awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales. Granted, the backorders and future product introductions do count; but then again who knows for sure what the future would bring, and if the delivery would be made at profitable terms.
Market does not like the lack of any significant news for extended periods and reacts by selling [and short selling] the Microvision stock. Just over the last one week, the stock price has dropped by 30% [down from $3.60 to $2.64]. This kind of price drop, it seems, has become a norm for Microvision stock after every Qtr earnings CC or the Annual Share Holders meeting.
Lack of news; or lack of any visible signs of product promotion, marketing, or sales does not build confidence in Microvision business model… and as a result, more and more investors [and supporters] abandon the MVIS stock every time there is carnage in its market price.
I don’t know if you realize how important the Microvision investors are to the well being, survival, and future prosperity of your [our] company?
Think about this…
At this early stage of the game, your first wave of prospective customers will be the Microvision investors [their family & friends], employees, vendors, hot leads from trade shows, and a few live ones from the ROV customer base. That’s your “hot” prospective customer base that you can easily tap for “placing the sensors in the ground”.
There are over 1,000 investors of MVIS stock that track the company’s news like a hawk on a daily basis. Each one of us [investors] has at least 200 people in our center of influence. If you do the math and add-up all the numbers you get over 200,000 people that would love to provide comments [and feed back] and be part of this paradigm changing technology at this early stage.
President-elect Obama used the Internet to reach out to millions [and continues to do so to this day] in a very short period of time and raised over $1billion in donations for his Presidential election. If Obama can evangelize his “Change We Need” slogan, then why can’t Microvision do the same with its “PicoP Green Machine” slogan? Let’s face it… sooner or later Microvision will have a HD PicoP Projector/TV that could provide large screen HDTV experience to a billion people in energy starved China and India. In the U.S. and Europe, it could easily replace millions of power hungry LCD/Plasma TVs in every room.
Investors need more frequent news on product developments; and also need to see visible signs of activity in promotions, marketing and sales… no matter how small. It keeps us interested and engaged. Share more information with us [Microvision investors] and make us part of your viral marketing strategy. It costs you nothing and results could be 200,000 times better than what an expensive team of executives with fancy titles would bring to the table.
For a moment think Apple…
To succeed like Apple, companies need to understand more deeply the consumer they are targeting. Apple recognizes that it can't have everyone as its customer. It is willing to alienate some segments by appealing to a strong core of people that sociologists refer to as the Cultural Creatives. These are the people who wait in line overnight for the latest iPod, iPhone, or the iPad. Focusing on the Cultural Creatives in turn attracts followers who might not otherwise trust the brand.
[The concept is presented in the book The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are Changing the World (2000), where the authors claim to have found that 50 million adult Americans who can now be identified as belonging to this group. They estimated that there were an additional 80 to 90 million Cultural Creatives in Europe as of 2000.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Creatives
Observe the next 10 people you see on the street with an iPod and ask your self how many of them represent the Cultural Creatives featured in Apple's advertising.
One, may be two?
Address your core audience… and the rest will follow. That's how you sell 10 million iPods in one quarter.
In the hands of an artful company like Apple, design is the vehicle for driving meaningful, relevant experiences that are authentic to the brand. It's not about paring product lines or making cool stuff. Done right, design can add value to the bottom line and the brand. However, design done right goes beyond the appearance and behavior of the object itself. It takes the entire product ecosystem into consideration. Design done right sees technology as an enabler, not just the solution.
Apple creates holistic experiences that inspire customers, strategic partners like accessory manufacturers, and content providers to build up the platform. Apple understands: “It's not about market share. It's about mind share.”
There are two ways to reach this group of prospective Microvision customers... the first is by more frequent e-mails… and the second is more organized, like the formation of “PicoP Green Machine User’s Group”. With that as a means to reach out and touch, you could hold the interest and engage your core Cultural Creatives… in exchange for latest news or sneak-peak at the technology that could save the Planet Earth.
You know what I mean? You get the idea!
It doesn’t cost you anything and it can build your e-mail list very quickly. Think “Obama” every time you want to reach out and touch millions in a hurry.
The foresight to go live with your Blog “The Diaplayground” was an excellent idea in this internet driven world… and the timing could not be any better. Perfect stroke of genius!
However, there is total lack of response to visitor posts at your Blog site… and that is the second issue.
I expect customers, investors, vendors and competitors to dominate the ranks of visitors that lurk The Displayground.
As investors, we are a fickle bunch and our Blog posts tend to be skewed towards topics that effect our financial investment in Microvision. We tend to be long term investors but the current volatility can be devastating… and as such, we doubt our good judgment from time to time. Sometimes our questions may be direct, inquiring, frustrating, out-of-line, etc. Some of us, at times, can’t say what we mean or mean what we say. However, we mean no disrespect, malice or harm. Now, with your corporate governance legal frame work in place, your team may or may not respond to [or even publish] our comments from time to time. We would understand your position in such a situation. However, there are ways to answer a comment, without violating legal rules and regulations, and still maintain the flow of dialog with the Blog participant.
I guess it all goes back to: “the beginning of openness and sharing of the truth with integrity and trust.”
Openness and sharing truth with integrity are important to investors… both large and small.
Anant Goel
PS: "Strive for simplicity, innovation, human-centered interaction, visual interest, and efficiency." This is the calling card for all businesses for the future.
Market does not like the lack of any significant news for extended periods and reacts by selling [and short selling] the Microvision stock. Just over the last one week, the stock price has dropped by 30% [down from $3.60 to $2.64]. This kind of price drop, it seems, has become a norm for Microvision stock after every Qtr earnings CC or the Annual Share Holders meeting.
Lack of news; or lack of any visible signs of product promotion, marketing, or sales does not build confidence in Microvision business model… and as a result, more and more investors [and supporters] abandon the MVIS stock every time there is carnage in its market price.
I don’t know if you realize how important the Microvision investors are to the well being, survival, and future prosperity of your [our] company?
Think about this…
At this early stage of the game, your first wave of prospective customers will be the Microvision investors [their family & friends], employees, vendors, hot leads from trade shows, and a few live ones from the ROV customer base. That’s your “hot” prospective customer base that you can easily tap for “placing the sensors in the ground”.
There are over 1,000 investors of MVIS stock that track the company’s news like a hawk on a daily basis. Each one of us [investors] has at least 200 people in our center of influence. If you do the math and add-up all the numbers you get over 200,000 people that would love to provide comments [and feed back] and be part of this paradigm changing technology at this early stage.
President-elect Obama used the Internet to reach out to millions [and continues to do so to this day] in a very short period of time and raised over $1billion in donations for his Presidential election. If Obama can evangelize his “Change We Need” slogan, then why can’t Microvision do the same with its “PicoP Green Machine” slogan? Let’s face it… sooner or later Microvision will have a HD PicoP Projector/TV that could provide large screen HDTV experience to a billion people in energy starved China and India. In the U.S. and Europe, it could easily replace millions of power hungry LCD/Plasma TVs in every room.
Investors need more frequent news on product developments; and also need to see visible signs of activity in promotions, marketing and sales… no matter how small. It keeps us interested and engaged. Share more information with us [Microvision investors] and make us part of your viral marketing strategy. It costs you nothing and results could be 200,000 times better than what an expensive team of executives with fancy titles would bring to the table.
For a moment think Apple…
To succeed like Apple, companies need to understand more deeply the consumer they are targeting. Apple recognizes that it can't have everyone as its customer. It is willing to alienate some segments by appealing to a strong core of people that sociologists refer to as the Cultural Creatives. These are the people who wait in line overnight for the latest iPod, iPhone, or the iPad. Focusing on the Cultural Creatives in turn attracts followers who might not otherwise trust the brand.
[The concept is presented in the book The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are Changing the World (2000), where the authors claim to have found that 50 million adult Americans who can now be identified as belonging to this group. They estimated that there were an additional 80 to 90 million Cultural Creatives in Europe as of 2000.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Creatives
Observe the next 10 people you see on the street with an iPod and ask your self how many of them represent the Cultural Creatives featured in Apple's advertising.
One, may be two?
Address your core audience… and the rest will follow. That's how you sell 10 million iPods in one quarter.
In the hands of an artful company like Apple, design is the vehicle for driving meaningful, relevant experiences that are authentic to the brand. It's not about paring product lines or making cool stuff. Done right, design can add value to the bottom line and the brand. However, design done right goes beyond the appearance and behavior of the object itself. It takes the entire product ecosystem into consideration. Design done right sees technology as an enabler, not just the solution.
Apple creates holistic experiences that inspire customers, strategic partners like accessory manufacturers, and content providers to build up the platform. Apple understands: “It's not about market share. It's about mind share.”
There are two ways to reach this group of prospective Microvision customers... the first is by more frequent e-mails… and the second is more organized, like the formation of “PicoP Green Machine User’s Group”. With that as a means to reach out and touch, you could hold the interest and engage your core Cultural Creatives… in exchange for latest news or sneak-peak at the technology that could save the Planet Earth.
You know what I mean? You get the idea!
It doesn’t cost you anything and it can build your e-mail list very quickly. Think “Obama” every time you want to reach out and touch millions in a hurry.
The foresight to go live with your Blog “The Diaplayground” was an excellent idea in this internet driven world… and the timing could not be any better. Perfect stroke of genius!
However, there is total lack of response to visitor posts at your Blog site… and that is the second issue.
I expect customers, investors, vendors and competitors to dominate the ranks of visitors that lurk The Displayground.
As investors, we are a fickle bunch and our Blog posts tend to be skewed towards topics that effect our financial investment in Microvision. We tend to be long term investors but the current volatility can be devastating… and as such, we doubt our good judgment from time to time. Sometimes our questions may be direct, inquiring, frustrating, out-of-line, etc. Some of us, at times, can’t say what we mean or mean what we say. However, we mean no disrespect, malice or harm. Now, with your corporate governance legal frame work in place, your team may or may not respond to [or even publish] our comments from time to time. We would understand your position in such a situation. However, there are ways to answer a comment, without violating legal rules and regulations, and still maintain the flow of dialog with the Blog participant.
I guess it all goes back to: “the beginning of openness and sharing of the truth with integrity and trust.”
Openness and sharing truth with integrity are important to investors… both large and small.
Anant Goel
PS: "Strive for simplicity, innovation, human-centered interaction, visual interest, and efficiency." This is the calling card for all businesses for the future.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Microvision: Unveils Increased Brightness, 720p HD Ready Laser Pico Projector
Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday May 24, 2010, 6:31 am EDT
REDMOND, Wa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products announced today that it plans to demonstrate a 720p HD ready laser pico projector at The Society For Information Display annual conference, May 25 – 27, at the Washington State Convention Center in Seattle, Washington.
The 720p prototype pico projector outputs 15 lumens of brightness while still maintaining its compact, low profile form factor, very similar to Microvision’s current WVGA product. The company plans a commercial product version of a 720p HD PicoP display engine in the second half of 2011.
The new 720p, higher brightness prototype highlights the capability of PicoP® technology to support new performance levels while still maintaining the compelling attributes of the existing PicoP platform, including:
• Infinite focus;
• Wide throw angle that offers an immersive visual experience;
• Superior brightness uniformity;
• High optical efficiency resulting in low power requirements;
• 5000:1 contrast ratio; and
• Vivid colors of up to 200% greater than standard broadcast television
“Microvision’s growing success is rooted in our ability to anticipate market needs and proactively innovate and push the limits of our technology to address them,” stated Alexander Tokman, president and CEO. “On behalf of our entire design team, I’m extremely proud to introduce the world’s first 720p laser pico projector demonstrator that fits in the palm of your hand.”
Mr. Tokman added: “Our customers are looking for best-in-class pico projection solutions and we believe that with our demonstrated ability to advance both resolution and brightness on our core PicoP platform, Microvision will continue to be recognized as the premier provider of customer focused solutions in this exciting new product category.”
In addition to the 720p demonstrator, Microvision also plans to showcase the following developer tools, product and application demonstrations at SID in Booth 1401:
Continues…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Unveils-Increased-bw-20446400.html?x=0&.v=1
The company demonstratd the 720p HD laser Pico Projector at SID Conference. In addition to that, Microvision showcased portable gaming, automotive and wearable display applications that were enabled by its current PicoP Display Engine technology.
The commercial opportunities presented by the 720p PicoP projector at 15 lumens of brightness; while still maintaining its compact, low profile form factor, is huge. The current WVGA product SHOWwx ─ at 848x480 resolution and 10 lumen brightness─ has awed the early adopters. The next generation products─ using 720p resolution and 15 lumen brightness PicoP Display Engines─ will surely delight the masses when introduced in the second half of 2011.
To fully appreciate the implications of going to 720p resolution at 15 lumens brightness in the next generation products; you have to own and use the current first generation SHOWwx… to be first amazed and awed.
To further appreciate the impact and value of 720p resolution at 15 lumen brightness; let’s review the history of broadcast to put the image resolution in proper perspective…
Back in the technological dark ages of the late 20th Century, NTSC television signals were broadcast in a resolution now called 480i… in the U.S., while the rest of the world had adopted differing standards.
"480" signifies the number of horizontal lines that make up a single frame of video. The "i" stands for "interlaced," which is a system that delivers a frame of video in two fields. Interlacing was adopted back in the 1950s to overcome limited transmission bandwidth. If you can remember that far back, all TV was broadcast over antennas.
Interlacing has never been a great solution because it does not offer the best image quality. In a movie theater, film is presented one full frame at a time, which is called progressive, or simply “p”.
Until high definition came on the scene, 480i─ now often labeled standard definition or SD─ was the way that every TV set in the U.S. worked. We lived with these NTSC standards for almost fifty years. As technology and marketing marched on, researchers, manufacturers and broadcasters took a two-pronged approach to producing a better quality video image.
First, they increased the resolution of the video signal and the TVs receiving them. Though there are many different choices in the ATSC standard, the two common resolutions are called 720 and 1080. Again, resolution is denoted by the horizontal lines in a frame. Instead of the old 480, these new standards produce 720 or 1080 horizontal lines. Actually, resolution is measured in both directions, vertically and horizontally. So, you may see them listed as 1280 x 720 and 1920 x 1080. If you do the math, these are both 16 x 9 formats.
[Note: ATSC is a set of standards developed by the Advanced Television Systems Committee for digital television transmission. ATSC replaced much of the analog NTSC television system in the United States on June 12, 2009 and will replace NTSC by August 31, 2011 in Canada.]
The simple formula is more lines of resolution = a higher quality (or we can call it a higher definition) image. Of course, nothing is simple in these HD days. The second factor in improving image quality is shifting the signal to a progressive format. Broadcasters have split on the idea of transmitting video progressively. Those who do, use the 720p format. Those who don't, opt for 1080i. Video experts, Joe Kane among many others, believe that progressive can out trump video resolution to the extent they prefer 720p over 1080i.
Of course, in the last few years, manufacturers are beginning to grace us with 1080p HDTVs. Which brings us back to the original question? If you have been following along with our HD calculus, the answer seems pretty obvious: “p” is better than “i”, and 1080 is higher than 720. No argument there… just give me the 1080p.
Well, here's the rub…
In the United States, 1080p over the air broadcasts still do not exist as of 2010; and all major networks use either 720p60 or 1080i60 encoded with MPEG-2. Satellite service providers though have many channels that utilize the 1080p/24-30 format… for example Direc TV, XstreamHD, and Dish Network.
If you mostly watch network television, and that includes ESPN HD and the premium channels like HBO HD, the best you will receive is 720p or 1080i.
Now, if your tastes run to high definition DVDs, then you will have better luck finding 1080p material in the stores. You may even see a lot of classic movies reissued in 1080p format now that the HD DVD / Blu-ray format war has been settled… with Blu ray taking the honors.
[All Blu-ray Disc and the now defunct HD DVD are able to hold 1080p HD content such as movies. Most movies released on Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD can produce a full 1080p High Defiition picture when the player is connected to a 1080p HDTV with an HDMI cable. However, the Blu-ray Disc video specification only allows encoding of up to 1080p24 signal.]
One more thing you should be aware of; and that is the native resolution. Almost every new HDTV will advertise that it handles 1080p, but that does not mean that its native resolution is 1080p. A 720p TV/monitor [or projector] can display 1080p sources. They just have to downscale the image.
Now if you think about it, content is available in a range of formats, 480i, 720p, 1080i, and 1080p. Your HDTV or HD projector can handle all of them through technical tricks of up-scaling or down-scaling and interlacing or de-interlacing. Not to mention how well it translates native 24 frames per second films to 30 frames per second video.
The theory of course is that a 1080p native resolution TV [or projector] will handle 1080p sources more cleanly than other lower native resolution TVs. But if the TVs [or projectors] are doing their job well, most non-hypercritical viewers will not be able to tell the difference between a 720p and a 1080p TV when watching 1080p programs.
The real test may, however, be how well a 1080p TV handles the more common lower resolution material?
One more consideration, 1080p is currently the leading edge technology… but for how long?
If you are buying an HDTV in the next few months, then supposedly purchasing a 1080p TV should future proof you for a little while!
But technology is on a roll, which feeds marketing's insatiable appetite for new products.
Expect your state of the art 1080p HDTV to be old news in the next year or two. True HD will be replaced by too good to be true Full HD… and that will morph into wallet busting eye popping Ultra HD.
You get my drift, yes?
In a year or so, I expect to hear Microvision coming out with 1080p resolution at 28 lumen brightness PicoP Display Engine; to support new performance levels while still maintaining the compelling attributes of the existing PicoP platform.
It is then, that I expect the 1080p resolution and 28 lumens bright PicoP Display Engines to be at the heart of front end media projectors; and selling for a few hundred dollars to give the energy guzzling 1080p HDTVs the run for their money… or should I say: “run for their life”.
Anant Goel
[Long List of Credits]
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Source: Microvision
Monday May 24, 2010, 6:31 am EDT
REDMOND, Wa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products announced today that it plans to demonstrate a 720p HD ready laser pico projector at The Society For Information Display annual conference, May 25 – 27, at the Washington State Convention Center in Seattle, Washington.
The 720p prototype pico projector outputs 15 lumens of brightness while still maintaining its compact, low profile form factor, very similar to Microvision’s current WVGA product. The company plans a commercial product version of a 720p HD PicoP display engine in the second half of 2011.
The new 720p, higher brightness prototype highlights the capability of PicoP® technology to support new performance levels while still maintaining the compelling attributes of the existing PicoP platform, including:
• Infinite focus;
• Wide throw angle that offers an immersive visual experience;
• Superior brightness uniformity;
• High optical efficiency resulting in low power requirements;
• 5000:1 contrast ratio; and
• Vivid colors of up to 200% greater than standard broadcast television
“Microvision’s growing success is rooted in our ability to anticipate market needs and proactively innovate and push the limits of our technology to address them,” stated Alexander Tokman, president and CEO. “On behalf of our entire design team, I’m extremely proud to introduce the world’s first 720p laser pico projector demonstrator that fits in the palm of your hand.”
Mr. Tokman added: “Our customers are looking for best-in-class pico projection solutions and we believe that with our demonstrated ability to advance both resolution and brightness on our core PicoP platform, Microvision will continue to be recognized as the premier provider of customer focused solutions in this exciting new product category.”
In addition to the 720p demonstrator, Microvision also plans to showcase the following developer tools, product and application demonstrations at SID in Booth 1401:
Continues…
*****
Here’s the link to the Press Release…http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Unveils-Increased-bw-20446400.html?x=0&.v=1
The company demonstratd the 720p HD laser Pico Projector at SID Conference. In addition to that, Microvision showcased portable gaming, automotive and wearable display applications that were enabled by its current PicoP Display Engine technology.
The commercial opportunities presented by the 720p PicoP projector at 15 lumens of brightness; while still maintaining its compact, low profile form factor, is huge. The current WVGA product SHOWwx ─ at 848x480 resolution and 10 lumen brightness─ has awed the early adopters. The next generation products─ using 720p resolution and 15 lumen brightness PicoP Display Engines─ will surely delight the masses when introduced in the second half of 2011.
To fully appreciate the implications of going to 720p resolution at 15 lumens brightness in the next generation products; you have to own and use the current first generation SHOWwx… to be first amazed and awed.
To further appreciate the impact and value of 720p resolution at 15 lumen brightness; let’s review the history of broadcast to put the image resolution in proper perspective…
Back in the technological dark ages of the late 20th Century, NTSC television signals were broadcast in a resolution now called 480i… in the U.S., while the rest of the world had adopted differing standards.
"480" signifies the number of horizontal lines that make up a single frame of video. The "i" stands for "interlaced," which is a system that delivers a frame of video in two fields. Interlacing was adopted back in the 1950s to overcome limited transmission bandwidth. If you can remember that far back, all TV was broadcast over antennas.
Interlacing has never been a great solution because it does not offer the best image quality. In a movie theater, film is presented one full frame at a time, which is called progressive, or simply “p”.
Until high definition came on the scene, 480i─ now often labeled standard definition or SD─ was the way that every TV set in the U.S. worked. We lived with these NTSC standards for almost fifty years. As technology and marketing marched on, researchers, manufacturers and broadcasters took a two-pronged approach to producing a better quality video image.
First, they increased the resolution of the video signal and the TVs receiving them. Though there are many different choices in the ATSC standard, the two common resolutions are called 720 and 1080. Again, resolution is denoted by the horizontal lines in a frame. Instead of the old 480, these new standards produce 720 or 1080 horizontal lines. Actually, resolution is measured in both directions, vertically and horizontally. So, you may see them listed as 1280 x 720 and 1920 x 1080. If you do the math, these are both 16 x 9 formats.
[Note: ATSC is a set of standards developed by the Advanced Television Systems Committee for digital television transmission. ATSC replaced much of the analog NTSC television system in the United States on June 12, 2009 and will replace NTSC by August 31, 2011 in Canada.]
The simple formula is more lines of resolution = a higher quality (or we can call it a higher definition) image. Of course, nothing is simple in these HD days. The second factor in improving image quality is shifting the signal to a progressive format. Broadcasters have split on the idea of transmitting video progressively. Those who do, use the 720p format. Those who don't, opt for 1080i. Video experts, Joe Kane among many others, believe that progressive can out trump video resolution to the extent they prefer 720p over 1080i.
Of course, in the last few years, manufacturers are beginning to grace us with 1080p HDTVs. Which brings us back to the original question? If you have been following along with our HD calculus, the answer seems pretty obvious: “p” is better than “i”, and 1080 is higher than 720. No argument there… just give me the 1080p.
Well, here's the rub…
In the United States, 1080p over the air broadcasts still do not exist as of 2010; and all major networks use either 720p60 or 1080i60 encoded with MPEG-2. Satellite service providers though have many channels that utilize the 1080p/24-30 format… for example Direc TV, XstreamHD, and Dish Network.
If you mostly watch network television, and that includes ESPN HD and the premium channels like HBO HD, the best you will receive is 720p or 1080i.
Now, if your tastes run to high definition DVDs, then you will have better luck finding 1080p material in the stores. You may even see a lot of classic movies reissued in 1080p format now that the HD DVD / Blu-ray format war has been settled… with Blu ray taking the honors.
[All Blu-ray Disc and the now defunct HD DVD are able to hold 1080p HD content such as movies. Most movies released on Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD can produce a full 1080p High Defiition picture when the player is connected to a 1080p HDTV with an HDMI cable. However, the Blu-ray Disc video specification only allows encoding of up to 1080p24 signal.]
One more thing you should be aware of; and that is the native resolution. Almost every new HDTV will advertise that it handles 1080p, but that does not mean that its native resolution is 1080p. A 720p TV/monitor [or projector] can display 1080p sources. They just have to downscale the image.
Now if you think about it, content is available in a range of formats, 480i, 720p, 1080i, and 1080p. Your HDTV or HD projector can handle all of them through technical tricks of up-scaling or down-scaling and interlacing or de-interlacing. Not to mention how well it translates native 24 frames per second films to 30 frames per second video.
The theory of course is that a 1080p native resolution TV [or projector] will handle 1080p sources more cleanly than other lower native resolution TVs. But if the TVs [or projectors] are doing their job well, most non-hypercritical viewers will not be able to tell the difference between a 720p and a 1080p TV when watching 1080p programs.
The real test may, however, be how well a 1080p TV handles the more common lower resolution material?
One more consideration, 1080p is currently the leading edge technology… but for how long?
If you are buying an HDTV in the next few months, then supposedly purchasing a 1080p TV should future proof you for a little while!
But technology is on a roll, which feeds marketing's insatiable appetite for new products.
Expect your state of the art 1080p HDTV to be old news in the next year or two. True HD will be replaced by too good to be true Full HD… and that will morph into wallet busting eye popping Ultra HD.
You get my drift, yes?
In a year or so, I expect to hear Microvision coming out with 1080p resolution at 28 lumen brightness PicoP Display Engine; to support new performance levels while still maintaining the compelling attributes of the existing PicoP platform.
It is then, that I expect the 1080p resolution and 28 lumens bright PicoP Display Engines to be at the heart of front end media projectors; and selling for a few hundred dollars to give the energy guzzling 1080p HDTVs the run for their money… or should I say: “run for their life”.
Anant Goel
[Long List of Credits]
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Microvision: Pico Projector Consumer is Well and Alive
Economists and investors cheered the 2nd Qtr 2010 earnings results from Apple Inc. (AAPL), saying it was a sign that the global consumer is alive and well. The company sold a mind boggling 2.94 million Mac PCs, 10.89 million iPods, and close to 8.75 million iPhones in a three-month time span. And these numbers do not include the 3 million iPads sold since April.
First, here’re the Apple numbers for the 2nd Qtr 2010…
• Total sales: $13.5 billion, up 48.6% year over year
• Earnings: $3.33 per share. up 86%
• Profit: $3.07 billion, up 89.5%
• Mac sales: 2.94 million units, up 33%
• iPhone sales: 8.75 million units, up 131%
• iPod sales: 10.89 million units, down 1%
• iPod touch sales: up 66%; iPod revenue up 12%
• Apple store visitors: 47 million in 286 retail outlets, up 20%
• Gross margin: 41.7%, up from 39.9% last year
• Cash and marketable securities: $41.7 billion, up $1.9 billion since December
• Guidance for the third fiscal quarter: revenue between $13 and $13.4 billion, EPS between $2.28 and $2.39, gross margin 36%
Wow, that doesn’t sound like a recession. But is that really good news or is there something unnerving about all that spending in this harsh recession that we should be concerned about?
Could it be that people spent money in a haphazard manner? Or they spent money [just to keep-up with the Jones] when they really should have been saving?
Either way, I expect the laser based PicoP Projector to follow the same buying pattern as the iPods, iPhones, and iPads.
[Note: Just to be sure we are on the same page; let me qualify that statement with a caveat… it’s the first second half of 2011 that I’m talking about; when the green lasers have become plentiful and their price has come down significantly from the current levels.]
Here’s a story [that I read somewhere] to explain why…
“In the 1970s, Harlem was one of the poorest neighborhoods in the nation, but it was a money making machine for people selling expensive clothes, sneakers, and cars. Before it opened, there was much concern that a McDonald’s in the hood would be an abject failure.
As it turns out, the first McDonald’s in Harlem became the number one selling restaurant for the chain in the entire world for years. Back then, there were street vendors who lived in the community and the money they made circulated among the people that earned it. However, for the most part it was like there was a giant vacuum cleaning hose sucking up all disposable, and not-so-disposable, money out of the hood.
Nothing was more peculiar than the need to own “Air Jordan” sneakers. Mothers that scrubbed floors for minimum wage had to drop $200 to make sure their children fit-in and were part of the hip crowd. Households that sustained themselves on welfare checks also felt the same pressure. Demand for these overpriced shoes never waned even after waves of violence, even murder, was being committed to own them. It was the ultimate status symbol, one that made you cool and one that also made you a potential candidate for the morgue. It was American consumerism at its best. It brought out what John Maynard Keynes called “animal spirits.” The desire to own these ultra expensive sneakers also brought out what sociologists might also brand “animal spirits”, too.
After fueling the growth of the world for decades, it is clear that the American consumer is now struggling. One lesson we’ve all learned over the years is that prosperity can be fleeting. In fact, in a blink of an eye it seems like all of our wealth vanished and somehow landed in China. It’s such a fascinating reversal of fortunes, but it underscores the notion of fiscal prudence. Those “Air Jordan” sneakers that were all the rage in Harlem were made by peasants in China whose annual income was so small they couldn’t afford to live [in Harlem] for one week. China isn’t the financial juggernaut it is because there are 1.3 billion people there; the cheap labor source of the world belies the notion of becoming wealthy. Their secret was saving. Saving money for years, living on the bare minimum, fixated on the future.
With that in mind, iPods, iPhones, and iPads are today’s “Air Jordan” sneakers… hip, stylish, and must have gadgets… but not a necessity.
Stuff We (don’t) Need but Must Have:
Ironically, the Pew Research Center released its latest survey on things that the public believes are necessities. The results are somewhat shocking. There were huge percentage decreases for clothes dryers, home air conditioning (maybe it will be higher in July than April), television sets, and microwaves. In fact, there were only a few items listed that more people believe are necessities now versus 2006. High speed internet access increased 2%, but only 31% said it was a necessity. Flat screen televisions increased the most, up 3%. Then, there were those iPods, again, increasing 1% to 4%. Like many surveys, much could be made of the results. On one hand, it could suggest less materialism.
But this list isn’t about chasing the Jones; rather it’s about basic stuff that is within reach of most Americans… like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. There is no doubt that income, or lack thereof, played a major role as respondents are certainly feeling the pinch. A whopping 57% said that they’ve bought less expensive brands or shopped more at discount stores… this is evident in the moves of stocks such as Family Dollar Store, 99 Cents Only Stores, and CitiTrends. Perhaps a silver lining is the 28% that said they’ve cut back on alcohol and cigarettes.
Here’s the link to Pew Research Center survey database…
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/395.pdf
There are so many other things people are doing to adjust to their current circumstances. The sharp decline in what people think they need, however, is remarkable. Maybe there is something else afoot in this story.
Still, there is another way to look at the results. In some ways I believe that people may be taking many things for granted… things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. I kind of lean that way, and it’s not just that we think an air conditioner is less important but some people think we don’t need more ships and jet fighters to protect us. Heck, this weekend we fired up the air conditioners in our house. If asked a week earlier I may have been inclined to say air conditioning wasn’t a necessity, but after a two hour bike ride in the blazing sun I felt like a walking volcano and at that moment the ice cube maker and AC were right up there with Guttenberg’s printing press as the greatest inventions ever.
One of the side effects of a horrific economic slide is a sense of defeat as well. However, we can’t be so down in the dumps as to become vulnerable to so many things, including the shifting away from the things that made the nation great in the first place… our innovation and the high tech industry to fuel the future prosperity.”
Yes, I do expect to see the global consumers buying millions upon millions of more iPods, iPhones, iPads… and of course, the PicoP projectors.
The next popular product categories that integrate PicoP projectors would be fixed and mobile computing devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as smartphones, digital photo frames, personal media players, digital cameras, and digital camcorders.
“As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded picoprojectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat.
In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that pico projectors will become part and parcel of billions of relatively low cost cell phones and media players.
“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.
The future for pico projectors is guaranteed since there is evidence of consumers willing to pay more for additional technologies such as good quality cameras, reported TMCnet, to be included in a single hand held mobile device.
Anant Goel
[Edited By]
First, here’re the Apple numbers for the 2nd Qtr 2010…
• Total sales: $13.5 billion, up 48.6% year over year
• Earnings: $3.33 per share. up 86%
• Profit: $3.07 billion, up 89.5%
• Mac sales: 2.94 million units, up 33%
• iPhone sales: 8.75 million units, up 131%
• iPod sales: 10.89 million units, down 1%
• iPod touch sales: up 66%; iPod revenue up 12%
• Apple store visitors: 47 million in 286 retail outlets, up 20%
• Gross margin: 41.7%, up from 39.9% last year
• Cash and marketable securities: $41.7 billion, up $1.9 billion since December
• Guidance for the third fiscal quarter: revenue between $13 and $13.4 billion, EPS between $2.28 and $2.39, gross margin 36%
Wow, that doesn’t sound like a recession. But is that really good news or is there something unnerving about all that spending in this harsh recession that we should be concerned about?
Could it be that people spent money in a haphazard manner? Or they spent money [just to keep-up with the Jones] when they really should have been saving?
Either way, I expect the laser based PicoP Projector to follow the same buying pattern as the iPods, iPhones, and iPads.
[Note: Just to be sure we are on the same page; let me qualify that statement with a caveat… it’s the first second half of 2011 that I’m talking about; when the green lasers have become plentiful and their price has come down significantly from the current levels.]
Here’s a story [that I read somewhere] to explain why…
“In the 1970s, Harlem was one of the poorest neighborhoods in the nation, but it was a money making machine for people selling expensive clothes, sneakers, and cars. Before it opened, there was much concern that a McDonald’s in the hood would be an abject failure.
As it turns out, the first McDonald’s in Harlem became the number one selling restaurant for the chain in the entire world for years. Back then, there were street vendors who lived in the community and the money they made circulated among the people that earned it. However, for the most part it was like there was a giant vacuum cleaning hose sucking up all disposable, and not-so-disposable, money out of the hood.
Nothing was more peculiar than the need to own “Air Jordan” sneakers. Mothers that scrubbed floors for minimum wage had to drop $200 to make sure their children fit-in and were part of the hip crowd. Households that sustained themselves on welfare checks also felt the same pressure. Demand for these overpriced shoes never waned even after waves of violence, even murder, was being committed to own them. It was the ultimate status symbol, one that made you cool and one that also made you a potential candidate for the morgue. It was American consumerism at its best. It brought out what John Maynard Keynes called “animal spirits.” The desire to own these ultra expensive sneakers also brought out what sociologists might also brand “animal spirits”, too.
After fueling the growth of the world for decades, it is clear that the American consumer is now struggling. One lesson we’ve all learned over the years is that prosperity can be fleeting. In fact, in a blink of an eye it seems like all of our wealth vanished and somehow landed in China. It’s such a fascinating reversal of fortunes, but it underscores the notion of fiscal prudence. Those “Air Jordan” sneakers that were all the rage in Harlem were made by peasants in China whose annual income was so small they couldn’t afford to live [in Harlem] for one week. China isn’t the financial juggernaut it is because there are 1.3 billion people there; the cheap labor source of the world belies the notion of becoming wealthy. Their secret was saving. Saving money for years, living on the bare minimum, fixated on the future.
With that in mind, iPods, iPhones, and iPads are today’s “Air Jordan” sneakers… hip, stylish, and must have gadgets… but not a necessity.
Stuff We (don’t) Need but Must Have:
Ironically, the Pew Research Center released its latest survey on things that the public believes are necessities. The results are somewhat shocking. There were huge percentage decreases for clothes dryers, home air conditioning (maybe it will be higher in July than April), television sets, and microwaves. In fact, there were only a few items listed that more people believe are necessities now versus 2006. High speed internet access increased 2%, but only 31% said it was a necessity. Flat screen televisions increased the most, up 3%. Then, there were those iPods, again, increasing 1% to 4%. Like many surveys, much could be made of the results. On one hand, it could suggest less materialism.
But this list isn’t about chasing the Jones; rather it’s about basic stuff that is within reach of most Americans… like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. There is no doubt that income, or lack thereof, played a major role as respondents are certainly feeling the pinch. A whopping 57% said that they’ve bought less expensive brands or shopped more at discount stores… this is evident in the moves of stocks such as Family Dollar Store, 99 Cents Only Stores, and CitiTrends. Perhaps a silver lining is the 28% that said they’ve cut back on alcohol and cigarettes.
Here’s the link to Pew Research Center survey database…
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/395.pdf
There are so many other things people are doing to adjust to their current circumstances. The sharp decline in what people think they need, however, is remarkable. Maybe there is something else afoot in this story.
Still, there is another way to look at the results. In some ways I believe that people may be taking many things for granted… things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. I kind of lean that way, and it’s not just that we think an air conditioner is less important but some people think we don’t need more ships and jet fighters to protect us. Heck, this weekend we fired up the air conditioners in our house. If asked a week earlier I may have been inclined to say air conditioning wasn’t a necessity, but after a two hour bike ride in the blazing sun I felt like a walking volcano and at that moment the ice cube maker and AC were right up there with Guttenberg’s printing press as the greatest inventions ever.
One of the side effects of a horrific economic slide is a sense of defeat as well. However, we can’t be so down in the dumps as to become vulnerable to so many things, including the shifting away from the things that made the nation great in the first place… our innovation and the high tech industry to fuel the future prosperity.”
Yes, I do expect to see the global consumers buying millions upon millions of more iPods, iPhones, iPads… and of course, the PicoP projectors.
The next popular product categories that integrate PicoP projectors would be fixed and mobile computing devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as smartphones, digital photo frames, personal media players, digital cameras, and digital camcorders.
“As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded picoprojectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat.
In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that pico projectors will become part and parcel of billions of relatively low cost cell phones and media players.
“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.
The future for pico projectors is guaranteed since there is evidence of consumers willing to pay more for additional technologies such as good quality cameras, reported TMCnet, to be included in a single hand held mobile device.
Anant Goel
[Edited By]
Monday, June 21, 2010
Flash Crash: Is Another One Coming Soon?
Some of you have asked for my reasons to stop posting new entries on the blog.
Without going into the details, let it suffice to say that after the “flash crash” of May 6th I wanted to take some time off to re-group, re-strategize and get a fresh perspective on all things related to financial matters.
The “flash crash” of May 6th, when the DOW dropped over 1,000 points in a few minutes, may be history but its after-effects—and threat to the global stock markets—continue to haunt further with two recent mini-crashes in individual stocks.
Regulators have characterized the initial flash crash, as a one-off occurrence possibly attributable to a "fat finger" trade or some other market anomaly… and to this day, regulators are still not sure what caused it.
Growing number of traders and regulators believe the flash crash is symptomatic of a larger problem with high-frequency trading, derivatives trading, and a very complex market that lacks visibility and is susceptible to similar events in the future.
Thus far, the main reaction has been the implementation of circuit breakers that stop trading on individual stocks should they rise or fall more than 10 percent in a five-minute span.
The rule, implemented for a six-month test period, played out its part twice over the last few weeks. First, it was when Washington Post [WPO] shares doubled inside of a few seconds on June 16th, from nearly $460 to $929.18. Trades totaling 766 shares at $929.18 crossed on NYSE Euronext’s NYSE Arca platform at 3:07:30 p.m. in New York, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The stock changed hands for $462.84 prior to the jump. The orders, later canceled, triggered a five-minute halt under rules adopted after the May 6th flash crash… which erased $862 billion from U.S. stocks in less than 20 minutes.
The circuit breakers essentially did their job, halting trading in the company after the surge. But the mystery remains over why such events happen in the first place. While the regulations didn’t prevent the erroneous orders from being placed, they may have kept more shares from being bought and sold at prices that would later have been voided.
Tech services company Diebold [DBD] saw its shares plunge 35 percent then recover in a period of a few minutes on June 2nd, before the circuit-breakers kicked in. The plunge in Diebold shares that erased 35 percent of its market value in six seconds is under review by U.S. regulators, people with direct knowledge of the investigation said. The stock dropped $8 in six seconds to $18.26 before recovering to above $25 a minute later, Bloomberg data show. Four-hundred twenty-seven trades occurred in Diebold shares below $23 totaling about 113,600 shares, according to Bloomberg data. All of them took place on electronic venues such as Nasdaq and Bats Exchanges.
The non-transparency that stems from high frequency trades, which can happen in milliseconds, makes tracking the trades virtually impossible. Some estimates have high-frequency trading accounting for about 70 percent of all market activity. Defenders of high-frequency trading say it pumps liquidity into the markets and makes fair trading possible. But perhaps the most stunning characteristic of the May 6th flash crash was that liquidity actually evaporated from the market, sending shares of some big-name companies momentarily to a penny when they couldn't find a bid.
“Exchange traded funds as a class were more affected by the flash crash of May 6th than any other category of securities," the Investment Technology Group said in an analysis.
Most traders still believe that the integrity of the market is intact and investors have little to fear, even though there's little reason to believe future flash crashes won't happen.
With that in mind, I’m back in the saddle for another ride on this roller coaster.
Anant Goel
Without going into the details, let it suffice to say that after the “flash crash” of May 6th I wanted to take some time off to re-group, re-strategize and get a fresh perspective on all things related to financial matters.
The “flash crash” of May 6th, when the DOW dropped over 1,000 points in a few minutes, may be history but its after-effects—and threat to the global stock markets—continue to haunt further with two recent mini-crashes in individual stocks.
Regulators have characterized the initial flash crash, as a one-off occurrence possibly attributable to a "fat finger" trade or some other market anomaly… and to this day, regulators are still not sure what caused it.
Growing number of traders and regulators believe the flash crash is symptomatic of a larger problem with high-frequency trading, derivatives trading, and a very complex market that lacks visibility and is susceptible to similar events in the future.
Thus far, the main reaction has been the implementation of circuit breakers that stop trading on individual stocks should they rise or fall more than 10 percent in a five-minute span.
The rule, implemented for a six-month test period, played out its part twice over the last few weeks. First, it was when Washington Post [WPO] shares doubled inside of a few seconds on June 16th, from nearly $460 to $929.18. Trades totaling 766 shares at $929.18 crossed on NYSE Euronext’s NYSE Arca platform at 3:07:30 p.m. in New York, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The stock changed hands for $462.84 prior to the jump. The orders, later canceled, triggered a five-minute halt under rules adopted after the May 6th flash crash… which erased $862 billion from U.S. stocks in less than 20 minutes.
The circuit breakers essentially did their job, halting trading in the company after the surge. But the mystery remains over why such events happen in the first place. While the regulations didn’t prevent the erroneous orders from being placed, they may have kept more shares from being bought and sold at prices that would later have been voided.
Tech services company Diebold [DBD] saw its shares plunge 35 percent then recover in a period of a few minutes on June 2nd, before the circuit-breakers kicked in. The plunge in Diebold shares that erased 35 percent of its market value in six seconds is under review by U.S. regulators, people with direct knowledge of the investigation said. The stock dropped $8 in six seconds to $18.26 before recovering to above $25 a minute later, Bloomberg data show. Four-hundred twenty-seven trades occurred in Diebold shares below $23 totaling about 113,600 shares, according to Bloomberg data. All of them took place on electronic venues such as Nasdaq and Bats Exchanges.
The non-transparency that stems from high frequency trades, which can happen in milliseconds, makes tracking the trades virtually impossible. Some estimates have high-frequency trading accounting for about 70 percent of all market activity. Defenders of high-frequency trading say it pumps liquidity into the markets and makes fair trading possible. But perhaps the most stunning characteristic of the May 6th flash crash was that liquidity actually evaporated from the market, sending shares of some big-name companies momentarily to a penny when they couldn't find a bid.
“Exchange traded funds as a class were more affected by the flash crash of May 6th than any other category of securities," the Investment Technology Group said in an analysis.
Most traders still believe that the integrity of the market is intact and investors have little to fear, even though there's little reason to believe future flash crashes won't happen.
With that in mind, I’m back in the saddle for another ride on this roller coaster.
Anant Goel
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