Saturday, July 24, 2010

Microvision: To Report 2nd Qtr Earnings on August 5th

Based on past history and unconfirmed reports, Microvision 2nd Qtr earning conference call is currently scheduled for August 5th.

Here’s the link to unconfirmed report on earnings conference call…
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/mvis_microvision-inc-mvis-corporate-event-announcement-notice-1051076.html

This 2nd Qtr earnings report, in my opinion, would be the most significant milestone in the history of Microvision because…

“… after 14 years of R&D, and having spent over $350 million dollars, the company will finally be in an enviable position to report revenues from product sales for an entire Qtr… and based on what’s reported, the entire financial future of this company─ and its stockholders, may take shape for the foreseeable future.”

The most important number to watch would be the “recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr”.

That’s correct, the “recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010”.

Granted, the backorders; profit margins; patents & awards; contracts & agreements; and future product introductions do count, but then again who knows for sure what the future would bring, and if the delivery would be made at profitable margins in the near term.

However, what do count, at this stage of commercial product introduction, are the actual sales of SHOWwx laser pico projector to consumers… indicating current demand to be over or below the current available green lasers, and the actual sales of PEKs/PDEs to OEMs… indicating future interest in the second generation embedded IPMs.

Having said that, let’s take a look at some projections for 2nd Qtr product revenues…

First of all, let me warn you that it is not easy to model product revenues for a company like Microvision because…

“For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade in March 2010, the Microvision management team is awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales.”

With that in mind, and taking all the plausible scenarios into consideration, I’m looking at $1,900,000 to $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010.

That’s the bottom line from my vantage point and I’ll spare you the details.

Now, here we go with the analysis…

• Anything less than $1,900,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of poor sales… that are not necessarily held back by green laser availability? Current events and management changes taking place at Microvision point more to this revenue number than anything higher.

• Anything more than $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of robust sales that leverage green laser availability to its fullest… and could have been better if more green lasers were available. The probability of this happening is low… but we can hope, can’t we?

These numbers are based on some complex modeling and are very subjective to one man’s opinion… in this case, it’s mine!

How the investors would react to this sort of news is anybody’s guess!

However, one thing is for sure…

Investors don’t like the lack of any significant news for extended periods of time and they react by selling [and short selling] the Microvision stock. Just in one week, a few weeks ago after the Annual Shareholders Meeting, the MVIS stock price dropped by 30% [down from $3.60 to $2.64]. This kind of price drop, it seems, has become a norm for Microvision stock after every Qtr earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meeting.

Lack of news; or any visible signs of product promotion, marketing, or sales does not build confidence in Microvision business model… and as a result, more and more investors [and supporters] abandon the MVIS stock every time there is carnage in its market price.

I don’t know if the Microvision corporate management realizes how important the MVIS investors are to the well being, survival, and future prosperity of their [our] company?

I didn’t think that I would ever say this; but after years of holding MVIS stock and taking my share of loses as the perpetual LONG.…

• Microvision stock has no backbone; and shows strength only when it receives attention from management lip service at times of needs for additional funding or before the quarterly earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meetings.

• MVIS stock has, time and again, proven that it is the Trader’s and professional Short’s trading panacea to making money while the Longs have been the perpetual losers.

To make the long story short, here’s what I would recommend to my friends, family, or anyone who chooses to preserve their investment capital rather than squander it on this perpetual dream machine…

“Buy low and sell high… and trade… trade… trade”

Anant Goel