First, let me clearly state again that PC Magazine Review of SHOWwx is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Having said, let’s take a look at the projected image lumens issue again and explain why SHOWwx has the best image quality...
There are no industry standards [yet] for projected image quality!
However, projection industry players have aligned to set new standards. Here’s the link the article on this subject dated 1/7/2008…
http://news.websitegear.com/view/35069
This article states...
“From the classroom to the boardroom to the living room, vivid color improves communication-enhancing attention, comprehension and learning. Current industry specification metrics fail to highlight the differences in color light output among competing products and technologies -- leaving it virtually unreported. Despite the overwhelming use of color today, the industry has continued to rely largely on specifications that only measure black and white performance such as brightness and contrast ratio. There is growing consensus for the need for an effective, easy-to-use projector measurement metric -- Color Brightness.”
"Based on the existing industry-standard test, Color Brightness, like the current light output measure for brightness (white), is reported in lumens. Color Brightness specifies a projector's ability to deliver the primary colors of light. Today, all video; DVD, HD, digital camera and computer signals are encoded in an RGB color space. Color Brightness measures the brightness of red, green and blue, exactly matching the input signal. If a projector can produce bright red, green and blue equal to the brightness of white, it can reproduce the true color that the creators intended. If Color Brightness does not equal or come close to the white brightness, color images can appear dark, washed out and less accurate."
"Leading color experts agree. "Without this new metric, consumers are in the dark about color performance," commented Karl Lang, president of Lumita. "Two projectors that both advertise 2,000 (white) lumens can have vastly different color performance. Color brightness provides the information consumers have needed for a long time," continued Lang."
Currently, only psychophysical methods for estimating image quality are currently used and they are highly subjective. Here’s a quote from an industry expert on the subject…
“Don Williams, an image scientist from Eastman Kodak who facilitated the meeting, spoke both for imaging practitioners and for imaging scientists and other members of standards committees when he noted, "There appears to be somewhat of a consensus that there is not any reasonable way right now to look at all imaging performance measures without ambiguity."
“Subjective assessments are notoriously flawed, due not only to differences among human observers, but to limitations of devices that render images (monitors, printers), as well as the differences in ambient lighting in two or more viewing environments.”
“Intentional or unintentional use of imprecise terminology also creates ambiguity. For example, industry's marketing literature and our community's funding guidelines routinely associate image quality with unreliable metrics-such as resolution and bit depth. These performance characteristics refer to input settings and become ambiguous if used to describe output quality. The same source could be digitized by two systems that produce the same nominal results (e.g., 3,000 pixel, 24-bit RGB images) yet the quality of the images may differ significantly.”
The bottom line is, currently the manufactures [try] to differentiate their projected image quality in terms of “lumens”, “pixels” “bits”. That methodology may be fine for traditional bright lamp or LCD based image projectors. However, for laser projectors the use of lumens to define image quality is flawed… although the pixels and bits may still be useful metrics in defining the laser projection image quality.
First, let’s talk about “laser lumens” vs. “diffused light lumens”…
Laser light is very concentrated light at less than 1 degree deflection. So, 10 lumen laser light projected image [pixel by pixel] is 1,300 lumen light projection image from a traditional lamp/LCD projector about 100 inches away.
I am not the only one that agrees with that “psychophysical methods for estimating image quality”. Mr. Golan Manor, VP Technical Marketing for Explay, also happens to shares my views on the subject…
“As for actual image brightness, all of these devices project images in the range of 10 lumens. As Explay's Manor note, it's the equivalent of 1300 lumens projecting at 100 inches.”
Here’s the link to Mr. Golan Manor’s quote [at the end of the article]…
http://www.physorg.com/news94387529.html
I agree with Mr. Manor... not because he is right but also a picture speaks a thousand words.
Just take a look for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more weeks will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Microvision: “What’s Your Business Growth Strategy”?
From the looks of it, Microvision stock seems to have stabilized and margin call related selling has subsided after 6 days of trading below the $3 mark.
Have to agree with you, that it hasn't been a walk in the park investing in Microvision. But then again, good things come to those that have the patience, knowledge, analytical fortitude and the power of belief to stay the course.
When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more months will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.
After listening to CEO Alex Tokman interview again, this is my reaction for whatever it is worth...
Microvision: What’s Your Business Growth Strategy?
Every business has to plan for growth and executives should make sure their growth plans are consistent with their dynamic business plan. A dynamic business plan is an updated version that is kept current to reflect the ever-changing business-operating environment. Especially in the technology and DOT.com businesses, where the product cycles are so short and consumer preferences are mostly dependent on the next hot product or service.
When it comes to growth plans, the two ends of the spectrum are, for example, should a company grow quickly and unprofitably, like Amazon and Hotmail [before it got acquired by Microsoft for $480 million], or slowly, with a careful eye on the bottom line, like Ben & Jerry's ice cream parlors? It all depends on what the competition is doing.
This report focuses on the challenges of growing a business and the importance of picking the right growth model that is consistent with your business plan and positions you for whatever your ultimate goal is. As the author sees it, there are three possible scenarios:
Number one: you want to be the gorilla of your industry in a hurry like Amazon.
Number two: you want to ramp-up your business fast and position for an acquisition like Hotmail.
Number three: you want to be a brick and mortar company producing steady profits like Ben & Jerry’s.
Regardless of what your business model is, the CEO and the CFO of the company need to formalize their business growth strategy and evangelize to the man in-charge of running the day-to-day operation of the business. Building a company is no small task? You've got one very important decision to make, because it affects everything else you do. No matter what else you do, you absolutely must figure out which camp you're in, and gear everything you do accordingly, or you're going to have a disaster on your hands.
THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS:
Whether to grow slowly, organically, and profitably, or whether to have a big bang with very fast growth with lots of capital spent in a hurry, that is the question?
The first model, popularly called "Get Big Fast" (a.k.a. "Land Grab"), requires you to raise a lot of capital, and work as quickly as possible to get big fast without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this the “Amazon”, because Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, has practically become the celebrity spokes-model for Get Big Fast.
The second model is called "Hotmail for Sale or Fail". Please note that Hotmail, before its acquisition by Microsoft, is the subject of our discussion here. And as for the name of our model “Hotmail for Sale or Fail”, I just made it up to make the point. This model requires you to raise only a small amount of capital, position for acquisition, and work as quickly as possible to build momentum to show there is promise of getting big fast… without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this “Hotmail” model, because Hotmail fits this model very well.
The third model, organic growth model, is to start small, with limited goals, and slowly build a business over a long period of time. I'm going to call this “Ben & Jerry’s” model, because Ben & Jerry’s fit this model pretty well.
The worst thing you can do is fail to decide whether you're going to be a Ben and Jerry's company, or a Hotmail company, or an Amazon company.
IN SUMMARY:
If you have the capability to raise tons of money, and you're going into a market with no existing competition, have lock-in and network/viral effects, you better use the Amazon model, or you're going the way of Wordsworth.com, which started two years before Amazon, but nobody's ever heard of them. Or even worse, you're going to be a ghost site like MSN Auctions with virtually no chance of ever overcoming eBay.
If you don’t have the ability to raise tons of money, and you're going into a market with no existing competition, have lock-in and network/viral effects, you better use the Hotmail.com model. Or you're going the way of the 95% of Amazon copycats, with weak capitalization, that have landed hard on their thin ass-set and nobody's ever heard of them.
If you're going into an established market, getting big fast is a fabulous way of wasting tons of money, as did BarnesandNoble.com. Your best hope is to do something sustainable and profitable, so that you have years to slowly take over your competition. You should start in one area, offer competitive prices, differentiate your services or offer variety of choices to create your customer base by getting customers to switch over from established competitors.
In closing, we should ask CEO Alex Tokman: “Microvision: What’s Your Business Growth Strategy?”
Anant Goel
PS: This post is based on a management report titled “… Technologies Business Growth Strategy” published by the author [Anant Goel] for a multi-million dollar company that was recently sold to a multi-billion dollar public company.
Have to agree with you, that it hasn't been a walk in the park investing in Microvision. But then again, good things come to those that have the patience, knowledge, analytical fortitude and the power of belief to stay the course.
When it comes to Microvision corporate management, you have to cut some slack to these folks. They have been managing so many tough technological innovations to come together; for PicoP to come this far and become a reality. A few more months will not break the corporate treasury [with over $50 million in cash] or put the company out of business. The pico projector market is huge and the race to market has just begun.
After listening to CEO Alex Tokman interview again, this is my reaction for whatever it is worth...
Microvision: What’s Your Business Growth Strategy?
Every business has to plan for growth and executives should make sure their growth plans are consistent with their dynamic business plan. A dynamic business plan is an updated version that is kept current to reflect the ever-changing business-operating environment. Especially in the technology and DOT.com businesses, where the product cycles are so short and consumer preferences are mostly dependent on the next hot product or service.
When it comes to growth plans, the two ends of the spectrum are, for example, should a company grow quickly and unprofitably, like Amazon and Hotmail [before it got acquired by Microsoft for $480 million], or slowly, with a careful eye on the bottom line, like Ben & Jerry's ice cream parlors? It all depends on what the competition is doing.
This report focuses on the challenges of growing a business and the importance of picking the right growth model that is consistent with your business plan and positions you for whatever your ultimate goal is. As the author sees it, there are three possible scenarios:
Number one: you want to be the gorilla of your industry in a hurry like Amazon.
Number two: you want to ramp-up your business fast and position for an acquisition like Hotmail.
Number three: you want to be a brick and mortar company producing steady profits like Ben & Jerry’s.
Regardless of what your business model is, the CEO and the CFO of the company need to formalize their business growth strategy and evangelize to the man in-charge of running the day-to-day operation of the business. Building a company is no small task? You've got one very important decision to make, because it affects everything else you do. No matter what else you do, you absolutely must figure out which camp you're in, and gear everything you do accordingly, or you're going to have a disaster on your hands.
THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS:
Whether to grow slowly, organically, and profitably, or whether to have a big bang with very fast growth with lots of capital spent in a hurry, that is the question?
The first model, popularly called "Get Big Fast" (a.k.a. "Land Grab"), requires you to raise a lot of capital, and work as quickly as possible to get big fast without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this the “Amazon”, because Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, has practically become the celebrity spokes-model for Get Big Fast.
The second model is called "Hotmail for Sale or Fail". Please note that Hotmail, before its acquisition by Microsoft, is the subject of our discussion here. And as for the name of our model “Hotmail for Sale or Fail”, I just made it up to make the point. This model requires you to raise only a small amount of capital, position for acquisition, and work as quickly as possible to build momentum to show there is promise of getting big fast… without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this “Hotmail” model, because Hotmail fits this model very well.
The third model, organic growth model, is to start small, with limited goals, and slowly build a business over a long period of time. I'm going to call this “Ben & Jerry’s” model, because Ben & Jerry’s fit this model pretty well.
The worst thing you can do is fail to decide whether you're going to be a Ben and Jerry's company, or a Hotmail company, or an Amazon company.
IN SUMMARY:
If you have the capability to raise tons of money, and you're going into a market with no existing competition, have lock-in and network/viral effects, you better use the Amazon model, or you're going the way of Wordsworth.com, which started two years before Amazon, but nobody's ever heard of them. Or even worse, you're going to be a ghost site like MSN Auctions with virtually no chance of ever overcoming eBay.
If you don’t have the ability to raise tons of money, and you're going into a market with no existing competition, have lock-in and network/viral effects, you better use the Hotmail.com model. Or you're going the way of the 95% of Amazon copycats, with weak capitalization, that have landed hard on their thin ass-set and nobody's ever heard of them.
If you're going into an established market, getting big fast is a fabulous way of wasting tons of money, as did BarnesandNoble.com. Your best hope is to do something sustainable and profitable, so that you have years to slowly take over your competition. You should start in one area, offer competitive prices, differentiate your services or offer variety of choices to create your customer base by getting customers to switch over from established competitors.
In closing, we should ask CEO Alex Tokman: “Microvision: What’s Your Business Growth Strategy?”
Anant Goel
PS: This post is based on a management report titled “… Technologies Business Growth Strategy” published by the author [Anant Goel] for a multi-million dollar company that was recently sold to a multi-billion dollar public company.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Impact of Falling Dollar on Your Financial Future (Part 2)
Please make sure to read Part 1 first.
Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/impact-of-falling-dollar-on-your.html
There are four basic things to watch to get a feel for the direction of our equity markets in the year 2010.
This may be an oversimplified approach to tracking economic and business trends for an investor who drives his income from the equity markets. It has worked well in the past to keep me on the right side of the market [bullish or bearish] most of the time. However, there are several other weekly and monthly economic indicators that you may want to look at… if you are a trader with a shorter investment time span.
DOLLAR:
If the dollar rallies, the markets will pull back? And it certainly seems that that way if you are watching CNN or Bloomberg?
Over the long term, the dollar may go lower… and the markets may rally, assuming the interest rates don’t go thru the roof. However, dollar is currently very much oversold, and as a minimum the US dollar is due for some type of short-term bounce.
INTEREST RATES:
If the interest rates start to increase, the markets will pull back?
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been dropping hints recently that rates could go up later this year. The Federal Reserve Bank has [recently] been reducing its purchases of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has not said it will extend those purchases past the end of March. Those purchases have kept interest rates artificially low for months.
Look for interest rates to rise, not only after the end of March, but possibly even before then in anticipation of an end to those purchases.
REAL ESTATE:
In recent news, the American Bankers Association reported that while delinquencies on consumer loans have been falling recently… the delinquencies on home-equity loans are continuing to rise, due to unemployment and underemployment.
The delinquency rate for home-equity loans (fixed) as of the third quarter of 2009 was 4.3%. For home-equity lines of credit (variable rates), the delinquency rate was 2.12%.
Both of these delinquency rates are now all-time records.
Now another report from Fitch Ratings states that 9.2% of all prime jumbo loans (conventional loans over $417,000) are now delinquent. These are the types of mortgages that one would least expect to be in default.
However, residential properties are not the only problematic areas. Delinquencies on commercial mortgage-backed securities reached an all-time high of 6.07% in December, with hotel delinquencies up almost 900% to an astounding 14% rate.
All of these delinquents threaten to further depress both residential and commercial property values nationwide.
December brought an unexpected drop in pending home sales. This seemed to indicate that buyers were in no rush to buy, following the government's decision to extend the first-time homebuyer tax credit through April 30, 2010.
However, December 2009 closed sales (the only kind that count) were once again stronger than the previous year's same-month total, capping off a year that was far superior to 2008 in closed sales. This positive trend is likely to continue at least through April, which is when the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit will end… assuming it is not extended again.
So if you are planning on selling your home in 2010, I suggest that you get it on the market within the next month or two!
MORTGAGES:
Mortgage rates have been on the increase during the past two months, and the 30-year rate has once again moved above 5%. Fifteen-year fixed rates hover around 4.6%.
Adjustable-rate mortgages remain low (around 4.3%), and will probably continue to be that way until at least the second half of 2010, as the Federal Open Market Committee does not appear eager just yet to raise its overnight target rate.
The Federal Reserve has recently been reducing its purchases of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has not said it will extend those purchases past the end of March. Those purchases have kept interest rates artificially low for months.
Look for mortgage and home equity loan interest rates to rise, not only after the end of March, but possibly even before then in anticipation of an end to those purchases.
I hope it helps understand what we are up against in 2010.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Here’s the link…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/11/impact-of-falling-dollar-on-your.html
There are four basic things to watch to get a feel for the direction of our equity markets in the year 2010.
This may be an oversimplified approach to tracking economic and business trends for an investor who drives his income from the equity markets. It has worked well in the past to keep me on the right side of the market [bullish or bearish] most of the time. However, there are several other weekly and monthly economic indicators that you may want to look at… if you are a trader with a shorter investment time span.
DOLLAR:
If the dollar rallies, the markets will pull back? And it certainly seems that that way if you are watching CNN or Bloomberg?
Over the long term, the dollar may go lower… and the markets may rally, assuming the interest rates don’t go thru the roof. However, dollar is currently very much oversold, and as a minimum the US dollar is due for some type of short-term bounce.
INTEREST RATES:
If the interest rates start to increase, the markets will pull back?
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been dropping hints recently that rates could go up later this year. The Federal Reserve Bank has [recently] been reducing its purchases of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has not said it will extend those purchases past the end of March. Those purchases have kept interest rates artificially low for months.
Look for interest rates to rise, not only after the end of March, but possibly even before then in anticipation of an end to those purchases.
REAL ESTATE:
In recent news, the American Bankers Association reported that while delinquencies on consumer loans have been falling recently… the delinquencies on home-equity loans are continuing to rise, due to unemployment and underemployment.
The delinquency rate for home-equity loans (fixed) as of the third quarter of 2009 was 4.3%. For home-equity lines of credit (variable rates), the delinquency rate was 2.12%.
Both of these delinquency rates are now all-time records.
Now another report from Fitch Ratings states that 9.2% of all prime jumbo loans (conventional loans over $417,000) are now delinquent. These are the types of mortgages that one would least expect to be in default.
However, residential properties are not the only problematic areas. Delinquencies on commercial mortgage-backed securities reached an all-time high of 6.07% in December, with hotel delinquencies up almost 900% to an astounding 14% rate.
All of these delinquents threaten to further depress both residential and commercial property values nationwide.
December brought an unexpected drop in pending home sales. This seemed to indicate that buyers were in no rush to buy, following the government's decision to extend the first-time homebuyer tax credit through April 30, 2010.
However, December 2009 closed sales (the only kind that count) were once again stronger than the previous year's same-month total, capping off a year that was far superior to 2008 in closed sales. This positive trend is likely to continue at least through April, which is when the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit will end… assuming it is not extended again.
So if you are planning on selling your home in 2010, I suggest that you get it on the market within the next month or two!
MORTGAGES:
Mortgage rates have been on the increase during the past two months, and the 30-year rate has once again moved above 5%. Fifteen-year fixed rates hover around 4.6%.
Adjustable-rate mortgages remain low (around 4.3%), and will probably continue to be that way until at least the second half of 2010, as the Federal Open Market Committee does not appear eager just yet to raise its overnight target rate.
The Federal Reserve has recently been reducing its purchases of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has not said it will extend those purchases past the end of March. Those purchases have kept interest rates artificially low for months.
Look for mortgage and home equity loan interest rates to rise, not only after the end of March, but possibly even before then in anticipation of an end to those purchases.
I hope it helps understand what we are up against in 2010.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman
Dear Mr. Tokman:
Considering the further delays and continued issues with executing the green laser based product business plan, please consider cutting the overhead by at least 70%.
Smart money investors have already sold-off and left! Why continue with a burn rate that reflects high levels of product development and sales activity... when there is none? I say this after looking at [and not finding anything other than SHOWwx] at the CES 2010 show. And yes, I also looked at the on-line interview at least ten times... just to be sure that I got the intended message right.
Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx has been around for almost two years now and is already an old technology... so to speak. Granted, that laser based pico projectors will be a huge success someday... but that day or for that matter that year is not this year to put it bluntly.
It is time to take control of this green laser nonsense that has been making rounds for the last two years and explore alternate technologies such as pico projectors that work with slow modulating green lasers.
With the existing laser light technology as it is today, it is stretching the technology envelop little too far to achieve SHG green lasers that can reliably modulate at 100MHz. Also, you may have experienced success with MEMS mirrors with carbon fiber torsion arms that can modulate fast enough today... but what happens to them a year or two from now is anybody’s guess. Materials fatigue and fail at exponential rate at the high end of the stress cycle.
For God’s sake control costs and think survival over the next two years when technology will be ready to support your currently demanding product specifications.
Also, the embedded pico projectors could be the ultimate goal for mass adoption and profitability in the future... but the standalone SHOWwx and its derivatives can still make Microvision profitable this year.
Warm regards,
Anant Goel
Beaten, bruised and humbled investor of Microvision
Considering the further delays and continued issues with executing the green laser based product business plan, please consider cutting the overhead by at least 70%.
Smart money investors have already sold-off and left! Why continue with a burn rate that reflects high levels of product development and sales activity... when there is none? I say this after looking at [and not finding anything other than SHOWwx] at the CES 2010 show. And yes, I also looked at the on-line interview at least ten times... just to be sure that I got the intended message right.
Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx has been around for almost two years now and is already an old technology... so to speak. Granted, that laser based pico projectors will be a huge success someday... but that day or for that matter that year is not this year to put it bluntly.
It is time to take control of this green laser nonsense that has been making rounds for the last two years and explore alternate technologies such as pico projectors that work with slow modulating green lasers.
With the existing laser light technology as it is today, it is stretching the technology envelop little too far to achieve SHG green lasers that can reliably modulate at 100MHz. Also, you may have experienced success with MEMS mirrors with carbon fiber torsion arms that can modulate fast enough today... but what happens to them a year or two from now is anybody’s guess. Materials fatigue and fail at exponential rate at the high end of the stress cycle.
For God’s sake control costs and think survival over the next two years when technology will be ready to support your currently demanding product specifications.
Also, the embedded pico projectors could be the ultimate goal for mass adoption and profitability in the future... but the standalone SHOWwx and its derivatives can still make Microvision profitable this year.
Warm regards,
Anant Goel
Beaten, bruised and humbled investor of Microvision
Monday, January 11, 2010
Microvision: PC Magazine Review is Full of Crap, Flawed, and is Biased.
I say this...
Because David Stone, the PC Magazine review team leader, has taken the lazy man’s path to reviewing a high tech product and his inexperience with the laser display technology shows. PC Magazine review is basically a self centered pompous review that likes to start-off with “biased” and “pompous” conclusion as the introduction to a high tech product review. If you don’t know the meaning of pompous; then look-it-up in the dictionary! In the English language it means...
• Arrogant
• Pretentious
• Self-important
If Davis Stone was the recognized authority on lasers or laser based MEMS raster scanning display technology; then I would stay low and take him seriously. But that is not the case... as is obvious from many apparent mistakes in his review methodology and the dozens of reader comments fiercely debating and questioning PC Magazine review.
Now you can add me also to the list of those questioning Mr. Stone’s competence, experience and integrity as the self-proclaimed independent review authority.
This is how Mr. Stone starts off his “Image Quality” review of Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx...
Image Quality
“The ShowWX's image quality is disappointing at best and, unfortunately, probably better described as flawed. I measured the brightness at 8 lumens, which is a reasonable 80 percent of the claimed 10 lumens.”
Here’s the link to PC Magazine review...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp
Here’re a few points to start with that show how shallow the PC Magazine review really is...
1. Diffused light measurement techniques and devices are not [and should not be] used for measuring light output from pulsating [or modulating] laser light sources especially where the laser light is switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments. Only an ignorant and inexperienced reviewer would use the same tools and methodology for laser light MEMS raster scanning technology projectors [like SHOWwx] that they use for diffused light source projectors... pico or conventional.
2. Combination of diffused light source [lamp and LED] with LcoS panel puts out lumens whether you need them for projected images or not... thus creating background lighting and contributing to overall lumens readings. Laser based pico projectors, on the other hand, use coherent light source and it is the lumen light intensity of the pixels that should be measured... because that’s what the eye sees with dark background contributing to the high contrast ratio. This explains the flawed measurement of 8 lumens that was recorded by PC Magazine reviewer vs. the 10 lumens stated by Microvision.
3. Mr. Stone is wrong [and full of crap] in stating 8 lumens measured vs. the stated 10 lumens... because when correctly measured using the proper tools [and methodology] the Microvision laser pixels are at 10+ lumens. You can call Corning for yourself and verify that.
4. Also, when the laser light source is modulating at 100 MHz rate and completely switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments... the background lumens are almost nil... with the image pixels still at full 10+ lumen intensity. That explains everything we have seen and heard over the last year that tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.
5. The background lumens give washed out effect to the projected images. Background lumens may add to the total lumens, as is the case with LED/LcoS based pico projectors, but they also wash out the images. Did Mr. Stone do a side by side comparison of the projected images? I don’t think so!
Because if he did a side by side comparison, this is what he would see...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
6. Laser based pico projectors use coherent light source and it is the lumen light intensity of pixels that creates high intensity vivid colors. When the laser light source is switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments, the background lumens are almost nil... with the image pixels still at full intensity. That should explain the high contrast ratio of 5,000:1 for SHOWwx, where lasers are switched-off during periods of dark picture segments... without reducing the lumen intensity of the projected pixels. This is an energy conserving technique that Microvision uses that also gives it the high contrast ratio of 5,000:1 as a side benefit. Mr. Stone ignored to mention the color gamut, vivid color and high contrast ratio of the images projected by SHOWwx.
7. Pico projectors are designed for image viewing by humans and not by some rigged set-up that neutralizes the image enhancing techniques such as those incorporated by laser pico projector SHOWwx. For example, the “speckle” effect is inherent to laser based MEMS raster scanning display technology. And Microvision uses various techniques to minimize speckle to a point that is hardly noticeable to the naked eye. Now, if PC Magazine set-ups a rig, as part of their review, and then go looking for speckle then obviously they will find it... because they have effectively neutralized whatever Microvision designed into the SHOWwx to reduce speckle. To me that shows malice and an agenda to attack the main differentiating feature of SHOWwx... the image quality.
8. The green line at the bottom of the projected image is used for calibrating the SHG green lasers from Corning. The green line is intermittent and not visible to the naked eye... unless you go looking for it. The future generations of Microvision pico projectors will not be using this green laser calibrating feature. It is quite possible that the PC Magazine reviewer received an older SHOWwx using Corning green laser or the reviewed unit was out of calibration. Either way, one small blemish [or a pimple] on the face does not make your caring and loving wife an ugly beast... does it?
9. The SHOWwx uses red, green, and blue lasers and MEMS mirror to raster scan the images on the screen. That means it doesn't have a native resolution in the same sense as DLP, LCD, and LcoS projectors, which have a fixed number of cells or mirrors. It has a preferred resolution for optimal performance which Microvision pegs at 848 by 480 pixels, one of the variations on WVGA and also appropriate for the wide-format version of 480p video. Since Microvision’s picop display engine uses MEMS raster scanning at the heart of its technology, it has upward pathways to high definition resolution of large image [currently at 200”] projection... without any increase in the physical size of the display engine.
10. In the digital world, other than a word processor, black on white is not very common. It’s mostly a soft pleasing background like IBM blue. However, if you are stuck on comparing “black on white” then look at what Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx offers...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/0/P9M0FI7zMmo
Now let’s see what the competition has to offer?
Putting it mildly, PC Magazine review is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.
Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.
When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.
I don't think the PC Magazine reviewer is on the take nor has a grudge against Microvision. Two people can look at the same thing with different expectations and draw different conclusions. May be the reviewer got a bad unit or an older unit using first generation green laser from Corning or one that hadn't been calibrated properly.
However, the question is: “Who else is going to review the SHOWwx, what are they going to say about it, and what will their motivation be?”
There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased.
As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...
“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.
The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.
While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+...
At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.
Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09...
Now you tell me?
Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.
Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens!
You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.
PC Magazine review is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Because David Stone, the PC Magazine review team leader, has taken the lazy man’s path to reviewing a high tech product and his inexperience with the laser display technology shows. PC Magazine review is basically a self centered pompous review that likes to start-off with “biased” and “pompous” conclusion as the introduction to a high tech product review. If you don’t know the meaning of pompous; then look-it-up in the dictionary! In the English language it means...
• Arrogant
• Pretentious
• Self-important
If Davis Stone was the recognized authority on lasers or laser based MEMS raster scanning display technology; then I would stay low and take him seriously. But that is not the case... as is obvious from many apparent mistakes in his review methodology and the dozens of reader comments fiercely debating and questioning PC Magazine review.
Now you can add me also to the list of those questioning Mr. Stone’s competence, experience and integrity as the self-proclaimed independent review authority.
This is how Mr. Stone starts off his “Image Quality” review of Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx...
Image Quality
“The ShowWX's image quality is disappointing at best and, unfortunately, probably better described as flawed. I measured the brightness at 8 lumens, which is a reasonable 80 percent of the claimed 10 lumens.”
Here’s the link to PC Magazine review...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp
Here’re a few points to start with that show how shallow the PC Magazine review really is...
1. Diffused light measurement techniques and devices are not [and should not be] used for measuring light output from pulsating [or modulating] laser light sources especially where the laser light is switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments. Only an ignorant and inexperienced reviewer would use the same tools and methodology for laser light MEMS raster scanning technology projectors [like SHOWwx] that they use for diffused light source projectors... pico or conventional.
2. Combination of diffused light source [lamp and LED] with LcoS panel puts out lumens whether you need them for projected images or not... thus creating background lighting and contributing to overall lumens readings. Laser based pico projectors, on the other hand, use coherent light source and it is the lumen light intensity of the pixels that should be measured... because that’s what the eye sees with dark background contributing to the high contrast ratio. This explains the flawed measurement of 8 lumens that was recorded by PC Magazine reviewer vs. the 10 lumens stated by Microvision.
3. Mr. Stone is wrong [and full of crap] in stating 8 lumens measured vs. the stated 10 lumens... because when correctly measured using the proper tools [and methodology] the Microvision laser pixels are at 10+ lumens. You can call Corning for yourself and verify that.
4. Also, when the laser light source is modulating at 100 MHz rate and completely switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments... the background lumens are almost nil... with the image pixels still at full 10+ lumen intensity. That explains everything we have seen and heard over the last year that tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.
5. The background lumens give washed out effect to the projected images. Background lumens may add to the total lumens, as is the case with LED/LcoS based pico projectors, but they also wash out the images. Did Mr. Stone do a side by side comparison of the projected images? I don’t think so!
Because if he did a side by side comparison, this is what he would see...
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png
6. Laser based pico projectors use coherent light source and it is the lumen light intensity of pixels that creates high intensity vivid colors. When the laser light source is switched on/off during periods of dark picture segments, the background lumens are almost nil... with the image pixels still at full intensity. That should explain the high contrast ratio of 5,000:1 for SHOWwx, where lasers are switched-off during periods of dark picture segments... without reducing the lumen intensity of the projected pixels. This is an energy conserving technique that Microvision uses that also gives it the high contrast ratio of 5,000:1 as a side benefit. Mr. Stone ignored to mention the color gamut, vivid color and high contrast ratio of the images projected by SHOWwx.
7. Pico projectors are designed for image viewing by humans and not by some rigged set-up that neutralizes the image enhancing techniques such as those incorporated by laser pico projector SHOWwx. For example, the “speckle” effect is inherent to laser based MEMS raster scanning display technology. And Microvision uses various techniques to minimize speckle to a point that is hardly noticeable to the naked eye. Now, if PC Magazine set-ups a rig, as part of their review, and then go looking for speckle then obviously they will find it... because they have effectively neutralized whatever Microvision designed into the SHOWwx to reduce speckle. To me that shows malice and an agenda to attack the main differentiating feature of SHOWwx... the image quality.
8. The green line at the bottom of the projected image is used for calibrating the SHG green lasers from Corning. The green line is intermittent and not visible to the naked eye... unless you go looking for it. The future generations of Microvision pico projectors will not be using this green laser calibrating feature. It is quite possible that the PC Magazine reviewer received an older SHOWwx using Corning green laser or the reviewed unit was out of calibration. Either way, one small blemish [or a pimple] on the face does not make your caring and loving wife an ugly beast... does it?
9. The SHOWwx uses red, green, and blue lasers and MEMS mirror to raster scan the images on the screen. That means it doesn't have a native resolution in the same sense as DLP, LCD, and LcoS projectors, which have a fixed number of cells or mirrors. It has a preferred resolution for optimal performance which Microvision pegs at 848 by 480 pixels, one of the variations on WVGA and also appropriate for the wide-format version of 480p video. Since Microvision’s picop display engine uses MEMS raster scanning at the heart of its technology, it has upward pathways to high definition resolution of large image [currently at 200”] projection... without any increase in the physical size of the display engine.
10. In the digital world, other than a word processor, black on white is not very common. It’s mostly a soft pleasing background like IBM blue. However, if you are stuck on comparing “black on white” then look at what Microvision’s pico projector SHOWwx offers...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/0/P9M0FI7zMmo
Now let’s see what the competition has to offer?
Putting it mildly, PC Magazine review is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.
Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.
When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.
I don't think the PC Magazine reviewer is on the take nor has a grudge against Microvision. Two people can look at the same thing with different expectations and draw different conclusions. May be the reviewer got a bad unit or an older unit using first generation green laser from Corning or one that hadn't been calibrated properly.
However, the question is: “Who else is going to review the SHOWwx, what are they going to say about it, and what will their motivation be?”
There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased.
As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...
“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.
The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.
While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+...
At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.
Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09...
Now you tell me?
Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors.
Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens!
You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.
PC Magazine review is full of crap, flawed and is biased.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Microvision: Perfect Storm CES 2010
These may sound like harsh words coming from one of the very staunch supporters of Microvision team. However, they need to be said at this juncture...
What we have seen over the past 48 hours is the “perfect storm” brewing in the future of Microvision. It started with Asia Optical making public comments [as perceived] in the media about TI having the best pico solution for embedded applications. It picked-up more gale force after the in-house staged CEO interview where Alex indicated more delays and future uncertainties. It became a perfect storm of hurricane force magnitude over the PC Magazine review of SHOWwx.
Individually these negative issues are easy to deal with because they have a reasonable explanation... and as such may or may not have an impact on the MVIS share price in the short term. However, collectively they are the recipe for a “perfect storm” and may precipitate an investor sell-off first and then look for explanation later... and that could be very damaging to the overall investor psyche.
Over the last two trading days the stock price has dropped almost 20% and seems to be holding at $2.92 for now. Is there further decline possible; that’s the next question in our minds?
Let’s take a look, shall we...
Asia Optical Comments about TI Pico Solution:
Asia Optical is a relatively new supply chain partner of Microvision with a relationship that formed just over a year ago. When AO makes comments that favor TI pico solution; it is understandable since Asia Optical has years of existing and ongoing relationship with them. So we can put that aside and consider it a minor twister in the way large corporations stick together and pay more attention to their current revenue source rather than go out of their way to support the business plan of a newcomer [like Microvision] with a glowing future potential.
Granted, that AO could have said something complimentary to TI without stating the “DLP pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency”. When you look at the choice of words that AO used, it is easy to mistakenly take it as saying that DLP pico(TM) solution is the best for embedded applications. Asia Optical knows that pico(TM) is the registered trade mark of Microvision. And DLP pico solution may not be the best when compared to laser based PicoP solution from Microvision for embedded applications. However, there are no embedded pico display engines from Microvision to be found on planet earth as yet. So, considering the existing pico technologies out there currently; the DLP pico solution is perhaps the most compelling solution etc. etc.
Read again what it says in the January 6th Press Release...
"Following an extensive comparison of all pico technology options we selected DLP Pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency," said Robert Lai, founder, chairman and CEO of Asia Optical. "We believe the market opportunity for embedded displays in consumer electronics products, such as digital still cameras and digital video cameras, is significant and we are excited to launch the first product with DLP very soon."
Here’s the link...
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/LA32932.htm
Interview with Microvision CEO Alex Tokman:
On January 6th, Alex Tokman gave an interview that was posted at the company’s blog site The Displayground.
Here’s the link to the interview...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
First, I must congratulate the management for taking the bold initiative to communicate with the stakeholders at the blog in such an informal setting. The Displayground has been a leap of faith in the way a corporation, such as Microvision, has embraced the Internet to communicate with its stakeholders.
Having said that, any effort to communicate with the stakeholders is to be commended!
However, Investors of Microvision have such high expectations of the management that at first blush the interview looks so stiff and staged. But when you look at the interview again and pay more attention to the subject matter, rather than watch the body language of Alex Tokman, it kind of grows on you. We, as investors, must realize that video interviews with corporate CEOs that are conducted in an in-house informal setting to communicate are not a very common practice. They may look staged initially but they certainly will get better as they become more frequent and with some practice.
Now let’s get to the center of this “perfect storm”...
It’s not very often, if ever, that you see the CEO of a company give an informal interview to release information that could have some serious consequences to not only its stock price but also raise questions about the credibility of its CEO. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what this interview did... precipitate a stock sell-off and, in my opinion, seriously damaged the credibility to Microvision CEO.
Both the timing and the intended [or unintended] information disseminated at this interview left the investors with a perception of further delays in green laser production and also delays in the release of pico display engine evaluation units for embedded applications.
First the timing...
The timing of this in-house interview with Microvision CEO couldn’t have been the worst move in the history of Microvision. It tops all the other “blunders” the top Management [past and present] has made over the years. In my opinion, it takes the “Last Blooper Standing” award of the year and effectively neutralizes any positive impact of the CES 2010 award that Microvision received as the “Last Gadget Standing” for its SHOWwx projector.
Bloopers happen usually as accidental, and usually has humor when it happens. Where actors need to memorize large numbers of lines or perform a series of actions in quick succession, mistakes can be expected. Some common examples include:
• Uncontrollable laughter (called in television circles, corpsing);
• Unanticipated incidents (like constant figiding);
• Forgotten lines; or
• Deliberate sabotage of an actor's performance by a fellow actor (to evoke laughter).
Unfortunately, this CEO interview did not evoke any laughter... but caused damage by precipitating MVIS stock sell-off and raised questions about Alex Tokman’s already fragile credibility as a CEO. We can blame Corning, Osram and green lasers for all of Microvision’s current problems all day... but at the end of the day it all falls in the lap of the CEO.
PC Magazine Review:
On January 7th, PC Magazine published their findings of SHOWwx pico projector review. Boy, oh boy! Talk about perfect timing to join in the storm brewing at Microvision.
First, here’s the link...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp
Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.
Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.
When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.
I don't think the PC Magazine reviewer is on the take nor has a grudge against Microvision. Two people can look at the same thing with different expectations and draw different conclusions. May be the reviewer got a bad unit or one that hadn't been calibrated properly.”
However, the question is: “Who else is going to review the SHOWwx, what are they going to say about it, and what will their motivation be?”
There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased. And that will be the subject of my next post.
For one quick example of why PC Magazine reviews of SHOWwx is flawed...
Diffused light measurement techniques and devices are not [and should not be] used for measuring light output from pulsating [or modulating] laser light sources especially where the laser light is switched on/off during periods of dark picture areas. Diffused light sources put out lumens whether you need them for projected images or not... and that should explain the disparity in very simple words.
PC Magazine is wrong in stating 8 lumens measured vs. the stated 10 lumens... because when correctly measured the Microvision laser pixels are at 10+ lumens. You can call Corning for yourself and verify that.
As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...
“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.
The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.
While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+transformed+into+tech+lover+paradise/2417678/story.html
At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.
Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09/and-the-winners-are/
Now you tell me?
Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens!
You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.
PC Magazine review is flawed and biased.
Read all about it in my next post.
In closing this post...
The stakes here are very high, and we are worried that Microvision management underestimates the things they need to do, as well as, the things their competitors will do to gain advantage in the pico projector marketplace. Obviously, Microvision management did not see this “perfect storm” coming and apparently has no contingency plan.
Microvision does have the financial backing to survive the “perfect storm” over the next 3 to 4 Qtrs. However, it will take some more financing money and Management charisma to pull out of this Perfect Storm on its own... considering the investor dissent brewing on the horizon.
I can't wait to see what's in store for tomorrow? Perhaps some more down-side and margin calls for the long investors.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
What we have seen over the past 48 hours is the “perfect storm” brewing in the future of Microvision. It started with Asia Optical making public comments [as perceived] in the media about TI having the best pico solution for embedded applications. It picked-up more gale force after the in-house staged CEO interview where Alex indicated more delays and future uncertainties. It became a perfect storm of hurricane force magnitude over the PC Magazine review of SHOWwx.
Individually these negative issues are easy to deal with because they have a reasonable explanation... and as such may or may not have an impact on the MVIS share price in the short term. However, collectively they are the recipe for a “perfect storm” and may precipitate an investor sell-off first and then look for explanation later... and that could be very damaging to the overall investor psyche.
Over the last two trading days the stock price has dropped almost 20% and seems to be holding at $2.92 for now. Is there further decline possible; that’s the next question in our minds?
Let’s take a look, shall we...
Asia Optical Comments about TI Pico Solution:
Asia Optical is a relatively new supply chain partner of Microvision with a relationship that formed just over a year ago. When AO makes comments that favor TI pico solution; it is understandable since Asia Optical has years of existing and ongoing relationship with them. So we can put that aside and consider it a minor twister in the way large corporations stick together and pay more attention to their current revenue source rather than go out of their way to support the business plan of a newcomer [like Microvision] with a glowing future potential.
Granted, that AO could have said something complimentary to TI without stating the “DLP pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency”. When you look at the choice of words that AO used, it is easy to mistakenly take it as saying that DLP pico(TM) solution is the best for embedded applications. Asia Optical knows that pico(TM) is the registered trade mark of Microvision. And DLP pico solution may not be the best when compared to laser based PicoP solution from Microvision for embedded applications. However, there are no embedded pico display engines from Microvision to be found on planet earth as yet. So, considering the existing pico technologies out there currently; the DLP pico solution is perhaps the most compelling solution etc. etc.
Read again what it says in the January 6th Press Release...
"Following an extensive comparison of all pico technology options we selected DLP Pico(TM) as the most compelling solution to provide our customers due to its superior image quality, small form factor and energy delivering efficiency," said Robert Lai, founder, chairman and CEO of Asia Optical. "We believe the market opportunity for embedded displays in consumer electronics products, such as digital still cameras and digital video cameras, is significant and we are excited to launch the first product with DLP very soon."
Here’s the link...
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/LA32932.htm
Interview with Microvision CEO Alex Tokman:
On January 6th, Alex Tokman gave an interview that was posted at the company’s blog site The Displayground.
Here’s the link to the interview...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
First, I must congratulate the management for taking the bold initiative to communicate with the stakeholders at the blog in such an informal setting. The Displayground has been a leap of faith in the way a corporation, such as Microvision, has embraced the Internet to communicate with its stakeholders.
Having said that, any effort to communicate with the stakeholders is to be commended!
However, Investors of Microvision have such high expectations of the management that at first blush the interview looks so stiff and staged. But when you look at the interview again and pay more attention to the subject matter, rather than watch the body language of Alex Tokman, it kind of grows on you. We, as investors, must realize that video interviews with corporate CEOs that are conducted in an in-house informal setting to communicate are not a very common practice. They may look staged initially but they certainly will get better as they become more frequent and with some practice.
Now let’s get to the center of this “perfect storm”...
It’s not very often, if ever, that you see the CEO of a company give an informal interview to release information that could have some serious consequences to not only its stock price but also raise questions about the credibility of its CEO. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what this interview did... precipitate a stock sell-off and, in my opinion, seriously damaged the credibility to Microvision CEO.
Both the timing and the intended [or unintended] information disseminated at this interview left the investors with a perception of further delays in green laser production and also delays in the release of pico display engine evaluation units for embedded applications.
First the timing...
The timing of this in-house interview with Microvision CEO couldn’t have been the worst move in the history of Microvision. It tops all the other “blunders” the top Management [past and present] has made over the years. In my opinion, it takes the “Last Blooper Standing” award of the year and effectively neutralizes any positive impact of the CES 2010 award that Microvision received as the “Last Gadget Standing” for its SHOWwx projector.
Bloopers happen usually as accidental, and usually has humor when it happens. Where actors need to memorize large numbers of lines or perform a series of actions in quick succession, mistakes can be expected. Some common examples include:
• Uncontrollable laughter (called in television circles, corpsing);
• Unanticipated incidents (like constant figiding);
• Forgotten lines; or
• Deliberate sabotage of an actor's performance by a fellow actor (to evoke laughter).
Unfortunately, this CEO interview did not evoke any laughter... but caused damage by precipitating MVIS stock sell-off and raised questions about Alex Tokman’s already fragile credibility as a CEO. We can blame Corning, Osram and green lasers for all of Microvision’s current problems all day... but at the end of the day it all falls in the lap of the CEO.
PC Magazine Review:
On January 7th, PC Magazine published their findings of SHOWwx pico projector review. Boy, oh boy! Talk about perfect timing to join in the storm brewing at Microvision.
First, here’s the link...
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2357640,00.asp
Whatever their motivation, the PC Magazine didn't have a “Single” good thing to say about Microvision’s SHOWwx. It's like the reviewer went out of his way to look for and focus on the negatives. Absolutely “Nothing” impressed him about SHOWwx at all.
Everything we have seen and heard about SHOWwx tells us that it's an impressive, even jaw-dropping pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens! I am really surprised PC Magazine reviewer didn't dump on SHOWwx battery life [longer than anyone else], heat generation [none at all] and bow-tie effect too.
When you compare the stack of favorable reviews from multiple reviewers and one bad review from PC Magazine, it makes you wonder and very suspicious towards the reviewer.
I don't think the PC Magazine reviewer is on the take nor has a grudge against Microvision. Two people can look at the same thing with different expectations and draw different conclusions. May be the reviewer got a bad unit or one that hadn't been calibrated properly.”
However, the question is: “Who else is going to review the SHOWwx, what are they going to say about it, and what will their motivation be?”
There was obvious intent here to neutralize the SHOWwx most powerful strength, its projected image size and image quality, and this PC Magazine review did just that. This was well thought out by a cunning mind not some nitwit journalist on the take. It was most likely written well in advance and this clown simply put his name on it.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many others that I respect, the PC Magazine review is not only flawed but it is also biased. And that will be the subject of my next post.
For one quick example of why PC Magazine reviews of SHOWwx is flawed...
Diffused light measurement techniques and devices are not [and should not be] used for measuring light output from pulsating [or modulating] laser light sources especially where the laser light is switched on/off during periods of dark picture areas. Diffused light sources put out lumens whether you need them for projected images or not... and that should explain the disparity in very simple words.
PC Magazine is wrong in stating 8 lumens measured vs. the stated 10 lumens... because when correctly measured the Microvision laser pixels are at 10+ lumens. You can call Corning for yourself and verify that.
As for SHOWwx projector image quality, a picture speaks a thousand words. Just look at the latest videos and think for yourself...
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e_rKfi8xCU&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0TQqQor0H0&feature=related
or this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSz-gmF-UwI&feature=related
Then there is this glowing review by Melissa Arseniuk for Canwest News Service...
“Another product attracting a lot of attention at CES is a Microvision portable projector ($500, available March 2010). It allows users to share images from their cellphones, iPods, computers and cameras by projecting them onto the nearest flat surface.
The projector follows the hype generated by AT&T last month when the cellphone giant released the LG eXpo, its first cellphone with built-in video projection capabilities.
While the Microvision device is an external product, it blows the LG eXpo out of the water in terms of resolution and versatility.”
Here’s the link...
http://www.canada.com/life/Taking+Vegas+transformed+into+tech+lover+paradise/2417678/story.html
At the CES 2010, Microvision’s SHOWwx projector won the “Last Gadget Standing” award when competing with 24 other semi-finalists. SHOWwx had over 7,300 on-line views and received 99,148 votes.
Here’s the link...
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/2010/01/09/and-the-winners-are/
Now you tell me?
Over 99,148 on-line votes and everything we have seen and heard over the last year tells us that SHOWwx is an impressive, even jaw-dropping, pico projector with stunning image quality and vivid colors. Everything PC Magazine tells us is: it's missing a couple of lumens, it washes out in minimal light, it has speckles, its cables are too stiff, it's got a green line across the bottom, and it's overpriced. Without saying so, this guy even hinted that it could burn your eyes out, but thank God humans are programmed to blink before that happens!
You get what you see... and not what PC Magazines says there is or isn’t.
PC Magazine review is flawed and biased.
Read all about it in my next post.
In closing this post...
The stakes here are very high, and we are worried that Microvision management underestimates the things they need to do, as well as, the things their competitors will do to gain advantage in the pico projector marketplace. Obviously, Microvision management did not see this “perfect storm” coming and apparently has no contingency plan.
Microvision does have the financial backing to survive the “perfect storm” over the next 3 to 4 Qtrs. However, it will take some more financing money and Management charisma to pull out of this Perfect Storm on its own... considering the investor dissent brewing on the horizon.
I can't wait to see what's in store for tomorrow? Perhaps some more down-side and margin calls for the long investors.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Microvision: Trading Alert on Our Core Holdings
January 6, 2010 11:00 AM
After Monday's explosion through 12-month highs, stocks treaded water yesterday as traders caught their breath and appraised the current state of the market.
"As goes January, so goes the rest of the year," has been one of those oft-repeated sayings on Wall Street for decades. If that's the case, then the year has blasted off to a strong start.
Even yesterday's mild hesitation is to be expected, as investors study the various possible stock and sector choices before making the leap of faith. Before that leap, traders usually want to know what immediate risks versus rewards there are at the current trading level.
For the Dow, the current support starts at the breakout level of 10,500 and has a bottom at 10,300. Within that trading spread are both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. A penetration of this zone [to the downside] would be serious enough to have traders liquidate positions at small losses since the near-term trend would be in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
For the S&P 500, the current support starts at the breakout level of 1,135 and has a bottom at 1,090. Within that trading spread are both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. A penetration of this zone [to the downside] would be serious enough to have traders liquidate positions at small losses since the near-term trend would be in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Now we have some idea of the risk... so what is the possible reward?
First, the market clearly demonstrated by Monday's action that the bull market has been newly confirmed and the market is in a powerful uptrend. Traders will want to watch specific targets to take profits, like the first area of resistance at Dow 10,500 to 11,150, and then to 11,800. But longer-term investors may wish to hold for even bigger gains since the indications are strong that sometime within the next two years the Dow could reach its former high of 14,000 plus.
Trading Alert on Our Core Holdings
Microvision [MVIS]: Over the last three trading days, the MVIS stock has moved up very quickly from $3.07 to $3.60 this morning on some heavy volume indicating institutional buying.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
There are essentially two reasons...
1. There is some favorable press release from Microvision this morning before the start of CES 2010 Expo. Here’s the link...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvisions-SHOWWX-Puts-bw-1845964462.html?x=0&.v=1
It says...
“Interest and demand for this product is very strong and we’re excited to have the SHOWWX as our center piece at CES,” stated Ian Brown, Microvision Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “We have created a unique and engaging presentation for attendees which is sure to drive awareness of the product’s key features and benefits. We look forward to introducing the product in additional customer channels during 2010, with a planned Microvision direct campaign in the U.S. targeted for March.”
2. Last night, Microvision was at the CES media event called “CES Unveiled”. Over 800 media attended to get their first peak at some of the top innovations being exhibited at CES. SHOWWX was awarded a 2010 CES Innovations Honoree Award in the mobile accessories category, and as a result they garnered a lot of attention from the press. At times there were twenty people deep in front of Microvision demo area. According to CES there are over 6000 registered media coming to CES, so on the media front Microvision will be very busy and expects to get extensive media coverage. Today Microvision will be finishing the build-up of their tradeshow booth and add final touches to their presentations for the week. Expect to see both video and photos posted at Microvision blog at The Displayground...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Quirky, innovative gadgets have chance to shine at CES...
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/life-tech/uncategorized/2010/01/quirky-innovative-gadgets-have-chance-to-shine-at-ces/
Media coverage at CES 2010...
http://www.tommerritt.com/?p=1244&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.golem.de/1001/72206.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkOILshW8Cs
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
CES 2010 Expo is conducting an on-line contest named “Last Gadget Standing” and Microvision’s laser PicoP projector SHOWwx is currently the front runner among the top 25 contestants. If you’ll be in Las Vegas this week, raise your hand — to help crown SHOWwx as the “Last Gadget Standing” on Saturday, 10:30 a.m., Jan. 9, in Room N255-257, in the Las Vegas Convention Center’s North Hall.
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/ballot-box/
Here's the link to a brief interview with Alexander Tokman. Topics include CES 2010, the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector and PicoP® embedded technology...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTvhwr8nTSM
Recommendation: Maintain long position with our core stock holding and add at prices below $3.48.
Apple [AAPL]: Maintain [net] long position with our options income strategy. However, keep an eye for the next resistance level at $215 on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aapl&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
Emerging Markets ETF [EEM]: Maintain [net] long position with our options income strategy. However, keep an eye for breakout from the triple top formation at $42 on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=eem&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
Our current Model Portfolio is cautiously bullish and is 50% invested in stocks and options... with the rest in cash. There is no need for further diversification at this time.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
After Monday's explosion through 12-month highs, stocks treaded water yesterday as traders caught their breath and appraised the current state of the market.
"As goes January, so goes the rest of the year," has been one of those oft-repeated sayings on Wall Street for decades. If that's the case, then the year has blasted off to a strong start.
Even yesterday's mild hesitation is to be expected, as investors study the various possible stock and sector choices before making the leap of faith. Before that leap, traders usually want to know what immediate risks versus rewards there are at the current trading level.
For the Dow, the current support starts at the breakout level of 10,500 and has a bottom at 10,300. Within that trading spread are both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. A penetration of this zone [to the downside] would be serious enough to have traders liquidate positions at small losses since the near-term trend would be in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
For the S&P 500, the current support starts at the breakout level of 1,135 and has a bottom at 1,090. Within that trading spread are both the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. A penetration of this zone [to the downside] would be serious enough to have traders liquidate positions at small losses since the near-term trend would be in doubt.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Now we have some idea of the risk... so what is the possible reward?
First, the market clearly demonstrated by Monday's action that the bull market has been newly confirmed and the market is in a powerful uptrend. Traders will want to watch specific targets to take profits, like the first area of resistance at Dow 10,500 to 11,150, and then to 11,800. But longer-term investors may wish to hold for even bigger gains since the indications are strong that sometime within the next two years the Dow could reach its former high of 14,000 plus.
Trading Alert on Our Core Holdings
Microvision [MVIS]: Over the last three trading days, the MVIS stock has moved up very quickly from $3.07 to $3.60 this morning on some heavy volume indicating institutional buying.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
There are essentially two reasons...
1. There is some favorable press release from Microvision this morning before the start of CES 2010 Expo. Here’s the link...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvisions-SHOWWX-Puts-bw-1845964462.html?x=0&.v=1
It says...
“Interest and demand for this product is very strong and we’re excited to have the SHOWWX as our center piece at CES,” stated Ian Brown, Microvision Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “We have created a unique and engaging presentation for attendees which is sure to drive awareness of the product’s key features and benefits. We look forward to introducing the product in additional customer channels during 2010, with a planned Microvision direct campaign in the U.S. targeted for March.”
2. Last night, Microvision was at the CES media event called “CES Unveiled”. Over 800 media attended to get their first peak at some of the top innovations being exhibited at CES. SHOWWX was awarded a 2010 CES Innovations Honoree Award in the mobile accessories category, and as a result they garnered a lot of attention from the press. At times there were twenty people deep in front of Microvision demo area. According to CES there are over 6000 registered media coming to CES, so on the media front Microvision will be very busy and expects to get extensive media coverage. Today Microvision will be finishing the build-up of their tradeshow booth and add final touches to their presentations for the week. Expect to see both video and photos posted at Microvision blog at The Displayground...
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
Quirky, innovative gadgets have chance to shine at CES...
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/life-tech/uncategorized/2010/01/quirky-innovative-gadgets-have-chance-to-shine-at-ces/
Media coverage at CES 2010...
http://www.tommerritt.com/?p=1244&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.golem.de/1001/72206.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkOILshW8Cs
http://www.youtube.com/user/mvisvideo#p/a/u/1/F2qnrOsg6wg
CES 2010 Expo is conducting an on-line contest named “Last Gadget Standing” and Microvision’s laser PicoP projector SHOWwx is currently the front runner among the top 25 contestants. If you’ll be in Las Vegas this week, raise your hand — to help crown SHOWwx as the “Last Gadget Standing” on Saturday, 10:30 a.m., Jan. 9, in Room N255-257, in the Las Vegas Convention Center’s North Hall.
http://lastgadgetstanding.com/ballot-box/
Here's the link to a brief interview with Alexander Tokman. Topics include CES 2010, the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector and PicoP® embedded technology...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTvhwr8nTSM
Recommendation: Maintain long position with our core stock holding and add at prices below $3.48.
Apple [AAPL]: Maintain [net] long position with our options income strategy. However, keep an eye for the next resistance level at $215 on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aapl&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
Emerging Markets ETF [EEM]: Maintain [net] long position with our options income strategy. However, keep an eye for breakout from the triple top formation at $42 on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=eem&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22460456358
Our current Model Portfolio is cautiously bullish and is 50% invested in stocks and options... with the rest in cash. There is no need for further diversification at this time.
Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/
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