MicroVision: Major Cost Cutting Measures or Death Spiral? Part2

We have known for some time that major cost cutting measures were underway at MicroVision.  And this fact was finally confirmed at the 4^th Qtr earnings conference call held on February 15^th.

Now, it looks like the reality of Picop projector market [and its limitations at this stage] have finally set-in at MicroVision. However, the pace of cost cutting may have picked-up momentum; to a point where “fat cutting” may be “slicing the bone” and cause structural damage to the integrity of the company.

Lately, there has been very little visible activity or news at Microvision.  And that makes you wonder: “What's up with no SHOW at the Displayland of laser based Pico Projectors?”

Here's the latest scoop and thinking based on some consumer feedback...

Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, regardless of the brand name or the underlying technology, are a toy as a standalone device... but the market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range.

Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, using panel or DLP/LED technology, use too much battery power and need constant focusing... and they will also have other gating [like size and heat] issues making into the mobile devices. If panel/DLP/LED technology gets past the mobile platform gating issues; at fifteen lumen, they will still be considered a toy... but the market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range... especially when someone else is paying for it.

Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, using MEMS/DGL technology, present a more favorable solution to the battery power issues and do not need constant focusing... and they will have far fewer mobile platform gating issues and will easily make their way into the mobile devices. However, at fifteen lumen, such laser based devices will still be considered a toy... but the market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range... especially when someone else is paying for it.

Bottom line is...

“... and more importantly, can Microvision make 15 lumen bright DGL based IPMs [for embedded Pico projectors] in millions; and make them cheap enough to be able to sell them in the $49 to $99 range; and manage to stave-off the financial death spiral by showing some net profit on each sale?”

A few dollars profit on each unit sold could easily translate into millions of dollars in profit when adoption rates accelerate into hundreds of million units in the next 2-3 years.

In my opinion, the answer, with some qualifications, is an astounding yes.

The last hand is in play... and over the next 30 days its the do or die time for Microvision brass.

Anant Goel